In the week gone by global markets looked cautious as Investors were assessing the potential speed and trajectory at which the Fed will move to hike interest rates and tighten its ultra-loose pandemic-era monetary policy. Even, rising bond yields are raising concerns over equity markets ahead of the Fed's monetary policy next week. Actually, the central bank’s increasingly hawkish tone has led to a rise in U.S. bond yields. Now Investors are grappling with the prospect of higher interest rates, which could further knock high-growth sectors like technology. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in Europe, and Middle-East also dented the confidence of the market participants. Back in Europe, the Economic and Financial Affairs Council met in Brussels on Tuesday. The meeting comes a day after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez vowed to work closer together on continental policies despite divergence over the relaxation of EU fiscal rules. On the data front, the U.K. inflation rate soared to a 30-year high in December as higher energy costs, resurgent demand and supply chain issues continued to drive up consumer prices. To note, Inflation hit an annual 5.4%, its highest since March 1992 and up from 5.1% in November, itself a decade high.
Back at home, domestic market too looked cautious tracking global cues. Besides, FII selling, rising US bond yields, soaring oil prices, and concerns over inflation have spooked the market. Actually, rising bond yields in US is pressuring foreign investors to pull out funds from India. As per India Ratings and Research, the Indian economy will show a meaningful expansion, as the real GDP in 2022-23 is expected to be 9.1 percent higher than that in 2019-20 (pre-COVID level). All eyes are set on the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled next week. Going forward, the movement in global markets as well as fluctuations in currency and crude prices will be closely tracked.
On the commodity market front, CRB broke the resistance of 255 and closed above 265; next it can reach the target 280 levels. The most talked commodities of the week were crude oil, cotton and bullions. Global stockpiles are falling rapidly as demand remains robust and the OPEC+ coalition struggles to revive output. That’s a further indication that production could be lower amid steady demand. Crude will trade firm in short to midterm but one should initiate long positions on correction. US natural gas output is depressed as well as remained frozen in Texas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio whereas winter is expected to be mild for this week; it may keep natural gas in range. Bullion counter may see further buying. In midterm, we can expect 67000 levels in silver and 48800-49000 in gold. Markit Composite PMI Flash and Inflation Rate of Australia, Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, CB Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, GDP Growth Rate QoQ, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final and Fed Interest Rate Decision of US, Ifo Business Climate of Germany, BoC Interest Rate Decision, GDP of Spain etc are some important data scheduled this week.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company is doing well and according to the management of the company, the real estate sector has rebounded strongly in the second quarter. GPL has recorded one of its best ever quarters for bookings with a strong response to new launches across India. The company has robust launch pipeline in the second half of the financial year and expects to build on the current momentum. Moreover, higher profitability to be supported by an improving balance sheet position, higher efficiency, stronger execution capabilities, stronger order book and a credible management team. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2197 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/Bv of 6.50x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.337.96.
Indian Bank benefited the most from its merger with Allahabad Bank in terms of liability profile. Its proactive tech integration ensured a smooth transition. It is one of the best mid-cap PSBs with strong capital ratios across cycles and ability to deliver relatively stronger return ratios as growth accelerates. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.163 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year average P/BVx of 0.42x and FY23 BVPS (Book Value Per Share) of Rs.388.23.
The stock closed at Rs 377.10 on 21st January, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 314.80 on 25th October, 2021 and a 52- week high of Rs. 455.00 on 21st January, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 371.96.
After corrected sharply from 480 levels to 320 levels, the stock has consolidated in the range of 330-380 levels for 4 months and “Symmetrical Triangle” on weekly charts, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, stock tried to give the breakout but couldn’t manage to close above the same, but ended with positive bias with high volumes. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are still suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 370-374 levels for the upside target of 410-422 levels with SL below 350 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 215.10 on 21st January, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 136.88 on 01st February, 2021 and a 52- week high of Rs. 219.25 on 21st January, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 178.43.
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows, forming a rising wedge pattern on weekly charts which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has given the pattern breakout and also has managed to close above the same along with high volumes, so further buying is anticipated from the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 212-214 levels for the upside target of 236-240 levels with SL below 198 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
After gaining for four consecutive weeks, finally some selling pressure was witnessed in Indian markets as Nifty indices slipped sharply towards 17600 mark during the week as traders were seen booking profit at higher levels before upcoming Union Budget. The weak sentiments from global front also added further pressure in Indian markets as sell-off in global equity markets was sparked by jitters around the U.S. Federal Reserve's tightening pace and weak economic data. From derivative front, call writers were seen adding hefty open interest at 17800 & 17900 strike while put writers added marginal open interest at 17600 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 17.30 % while that for put options closed at 18.32. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 17.79%. PCR OI for the week closed at 0.74. From technical front, now Nifty is likely to face strong hurdle at its 20 days exponential moving average on daily charts which is placed at 17800 level. The strong support for the index is now placed at 17500-17450 zone. For upcoming week, we expect markets to trade on volatile path and could witness big intraday moves as we are moving towards January series expiry. However, the bias is likely to remain in favour of bears as far Nifty holds below 17950 levels broadly.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Apr) touched 7-year high last week and then seen corrections but will be close in green. It is expected to trade higher towards 11000 with support at 10250 levels. New crop arrivals in Telangana's Nizamabad market are around 200-500 bags (1 bag = 65 kg) daily and is likely to surge to 2,000 bags in coming weeks. Currently, prices are up about 69% y/y on expectation of lower production and anticipation of higher demand in coming season. In the first 8-months (Apr-Nov) of FY 2021/22, exports down 22% to 1,02,126 tons Vs last year but higher by 7.2% compared with 5-year average for the same period. In view of heavy rains in the growing areas, particularly Maharashtra, crop’s yield could be lower and delayed by two to three weeks. The production could be lower in Karnataka by about 20-25% due to disease. Jeera futures (Mar) is expected to trade higher towards 19000 levels, if it breaks above 18460 levels. Last week, it traded in a narrow range after it touched 4-years. The demand is slow as the prices have increased in recent months. Currently prices are higher by 37% y/y on reports of drop in area and improving domestic demand. As per respective Agriculture Dept data, area under jeera in Gujarat as on 17-Jan was only 3.07 lakh ha Vs 4.69 lakh hac last year while in Rajasthan jeera is sown in 5.30 lakh hac vs 7.7. As per Govt. data, exports of jeera for Apr-Nov down by 20% Y/Y at 1.61 lakh tonnes compared to 2.02 lt last year. As per the state farm department's second advance estimate Jeera output in Gujarat, the top producer, was pegged at 236,980 tn in 2021- 22, sharply lower from 399,390 tn a year ago. Dhaniya futures (Apr) have taken a pause after closing higher for three previous consecutive weeks. It has corrected last week from the 7-year high prices. It is likely to trade higher towards 10600 with support at 9800. The prices are higher by 67% y/y on reports of crop loss due to frequent rains and cold climates which is expected to affect production in coming season. Area under coriander in Gujarat as on 17-Jan is pegged at 1,25,444 hac which is 145% area compared to normal area but less than last year 1,41,004 hac. As per govt. data, exports have been down 13% during Apr-Nov period to 32,900 tonnes Vs 37,765 tonnes last year but 10% higher compared to 5-year average.
Bullion saw a defining move last week, despite the sharp upturn in dollar index and talk of aggressive interest rate hike. Both gold and silver are seeing unexpected rallies, with prices hitting two-month highs. In MCX, gold and silver saw the higher side of 48538 and 65499 respectively. Silver got a strong economic angle because the precious metal is used in renewable energy processes, has outperformed gold last week. Market is paying more attention on inflation and ignoring the interest rate hike expectation. US inflation is on 40 years high. In Britain, annual inflation rose more than expected, advancing 5.4% in December — the highest reading since March 1992. Canada's inflation rate also rose to the highest in 30 years. Upside in bullion is also coincided with the Biden administration announcing an additional $200 million in defensive military aid to Ukraine, citing fears of a Russian invasion. Investors are flocking to safe-haven metals as inflation and geopolitical tensions are triggering increased volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Treasury yields have taken a step back, the U.S. dollar is down slightly, but with measures of volatility exploding higher, and it looks like gold has a nice reason to stay in higher range. Based on seasonality, January has been the best month of the year for gold over the past five-to-ten-year window. Furthermore, Chinese New Year is approaching; physical demand in the Middle Kingdom remains extremely strong with SGE data for December showing 193mt of outflows from vaults. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 47500- 49500 and 62500-67000 in MCX. In COMEX, we can expect a trading zone of $1800-1880 and $24-25.5.
Crude prices may trade in the range of 6000-6500 with bearish bias as profit booking may continue after prices reached to seven years high. Downward trend in global equity also impacting the crude markets as investors increasingly expecting that central banks will hike interest rates in 2022 to curb high inflation. The surge to multi-year highs poses a challenge to consuming nations and central banks as they try and stave off inflation, prompting the Biden administration to renew its pledge to tackle higher prices. Gasoline inventories in the United States rose by 5.9 million barrels, to their highest since February 2021, according to the EIA. Crude stockpiles rose by 515,000 barrels last week, against industry expectations. The EIA also reported a slight decline in refinery runs, indicating lower demand for crude. However supply concerns are in focus as U.S.-Russia tensions are also up as Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer builds up a large troop presence near Ukraine's border and stokes fears of armed conflict. But the International Energy Agency said that oil supply will soon overtake demand as some producers prepare to pump at or above all-time highs. Fuel demand is also holding up despite the spread of the omicron COVID-19 variant. Natural gas prices may trade with high volatility in the range of 260-320. According to a recent National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration report, much colder than normal weather is expected to cover most of the Mid-West and North East, and warmer than average weather will cover most of the West Coast for the next 8-14 days. The EIA expects LNG exports will continue to rise in 2022 and 2023.
Base metals may trade in range with positive bias but profit booking at higher level cannot be denied. Markets are expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates this year, although hopes of further policy support from China kept the metal on track for a weekly gain. An early rate hike from the U.S. central bank could trim liquidity in financial markets and slow recovery in the world's biggest economy. Metals could find support after economists forecast that China’s cut of two key policy interest rates has opened the door to more monetary easing actions ahead. Copper may trade in the range 750-775. China's refined copper production in 2021 rose 7.4% yearon- year to 10.49 million tonnes to an annual record high, National Bureau of Statistics data showed. Aluminum may move towards 250 with support of 235 on persisting supply concern. Soaring electricity prices in Europe have triggered cuts in energy-intensive production of aluminium. Global primary aluminium output fell 1.25% year-on-year in December to 5.622 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed. Nickel may trade in the range of 1650-1850 levels. Nickel’s biggest supply squeeze in more than a decade is drawing attention from the London Metal Exchange, as plunging inventories mean buyers are forced to pay massive premiums for immediately available metal. The global nickel market saw a deficit of 3,000 tonnes in November, compared with a shortfall of 1,600 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Zinc can move towards 310 with support of 290. Lead can move in the range of 182- 190.
Cotton futures (Jan) touched all time high of 37460 last week and then correcting due to profit booking. Slow pace of cotton exports and improving arrivals due to higher prices have helped some corrections. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 35860 - 36830. Current domestic prices are high 72.55% y/y and jumped about 13% in last one month due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 12.00 lakh bales to 348.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from its previous estimate of 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. Each while domestic consumption increased by 10 lakh bales. USDA in its monthly report cut production in India to 27.5 million bales from 28 million bales last month while in the US - largest exporter, production was cut by 3.61% to 17.6 million bales. Guar seed futures (Feb) closed higher for the third successive week on improving demand as the exports are improving. It is expected to trade higher towards 6700 levels with support at 6340. Currently, prices are up 64% y/y on expectation of lowest production in last 5 years, multi-year lower stocks and improving export demand. In Nov, Guar gum exports are higher by 33% y/y at 24,150 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 (Apr-Nov) are up by 44.4% y/y at 2.09 lakh tonnes. The arrivals of guar seed are improving as the prices are slowing recovering since last three weeks. Moreover, the export demand for Guargum also will improve in next few weeks so as the crushing demand for the guar seed. Castor Seed (Feb) jumped to 6-weeks high last week on improving physical demand from the lubricant, paints and soap industries on expectation of lower production in 2021/22. Thus, the prices are likely to trade in a range 6100-6520 with positive bias. Currently, castor seed prices are higher by 41% y/y, as Gujarat agriculture department’s second advance estimate cut castor seed production by 1 lakh tonnes to 13.02 lt compared 14 lt in the first estimate. Last year production was 13.45 lt. During last month the prices were down as exports are figures are not encouraging. As pre SEA data release, Castor oil exports during Sep-Nov down by 16% at 1.39 lakh tonnes compared to 1.65 lt last year. Similarly, castor meal exports fall by 16.5% during (Aug- Dec) y/y.
GOLD MCX (FEB) contract closed at Rs. 48380 on 20th Jan’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 48785.00 on 17th Dec’2021 and a low of Rs.47300.00 on 07th Jan’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 47873.22. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.83.
One can buy near Rs. 47900 for a target of Rs. 49000 with the stop loss of 47300.
ALUMINIUM MCX (FEB) contract closed at Rs. 247.70 on 20th Jan’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 247.90 on 20th Jan’2022 and a low of Rs. 210.80 on 02nd Dec’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 234.36. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 79.033.
One can buy near Rs. 242 for a target of Rs. 255 with the stop loss of Rs. 235.
COCUD NCDEX (FEB)contract was closed at Rs. 3235 on 20th Jan’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 3440.00 on 07th Jan’2022 and a low of Rs. 2665.00 on 02nd Dec’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 3255.81. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.499. of 77.773.
One can sell near Rs. 3235 for a target of Rs. 2955 with the stop loss of Rs 3365.
CRB broke the resistance of 255 and closed above 265; next it can reach target 280 levels. The most talked commodities were crude oil, cotton and bullions. Oil prices were on boil after a fire on a pipeline from Iraq to Turkey briefly stopped flows, increasing concerns about an already tight short-term supply outlook. Supply concerns mounted last week after Yemen's Houthi group attacked the United Arab Emirates, OPEC's third-largest producer, while Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, has built up a large troop presence near Ukraine's border, stoking fears of invasion. US natural gas futures fell to around $4 per mbtu, the lowest in near two weeks, due to forecasts for less cold over the next two weeks while a big fall in natural gas prices in Europe also weighed. At the same time, demand for US LNG continues to be strong as utilities around the world scramble for LNG cargoes to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia. Fall in natural gas in euro area amid record import of LNG put pressure on prices and here in India, natural gas breached 300 levels. The near 4% rally in gold since the end of November has also lent a new glow to the yellow metal’s prowess as an inflation-hedging tool amid the worst U.S. price pressures in 40 years. In terms of absolute gain, Wednesday’s advance in Comex gold was the biggest in a day in more than a month — the previous being a 1.9% jump on Dec. 15. Silver performed better than gold and crossed 64500 in MCX. Base metals rose sharply, except lead. Copper prices firmed, supported by expectations of further policy easing in top metals consumer China offsetting pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar and rise in inventories. China's central bank will roll out more policy measures to stabilise the economy. Nickel prices hovered around 11-year highs as a supply shortage forced traders to pay huge premiums to get their hands on metal. Soaring electricity prices in Europe have triggered cuts in energy-intensive production of aluminium. Out of Europe's total aluminium capacity of 4.5 million tonnes, Bank of America reckons about 650,000 tonnes have been cut so far while CRU estimates 729,000 tonnes.
In spices, jeera and coriander saw some decline but turmeric saw surge. Arrivals of the new crop have started in Telangana and Maharashtra. Currently, prices are up about 69% y/y on expectation of lower production and anticipation of higher demand in coming season. Cotton futures (Jan) surged to all-time high breaching 37000 levels on reports of lower production. Current domestic prices are high 74.7% y/y and jumped about 17% in last one month due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 12.00 lakh bales to 348.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from its previous estimate of 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. Guar counter surged on expectation of lowest production in last 5 years, multi-year lower stocks and improving export demand.
NCDEX has launched Liquidity Enhancement scheme for the Guarex from 17th Jan 2022. Under the liquidity enhancement scheme, brokers and other market intermediaries are given incentives for a specified period of time to bring in liquidity and generate investor interest in commodity contracts which have limited trading activity.
India’s first sectoral index in the Agri commodities basket i.e. GUAREX was launched for the first time in August 2021 by the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX).
NCDEX GUREX provides real-time commodity futures price index, designed to provide exposure of Guar Complex Commodity to market participants. The index is based on the liquid Guargum and Guarseed futures contracts traded on NCDEX. The Index act as an important tool in benchmarking and trading for the market.
This index product is offering a lot of opportunities to value chain participants in terms of risk management as well as various trading strategies. The index is based on the liquid Guar Gum and Guar Seed futures contracts traded on NCDEX.
But due to liquidity related issues, trade participants failed to pick up. Thus, as per the SEBI guidelines under the Liquidity Enhancement Scheme, NCDEX has initiated it for the first time on its platform to improve volumes which facilitate easy entry and exit for the participants.The cross margin benefits also attract industrial participants to hedge their price risk thus proving high level of liquidity and participation in the index product – GUAREX.
Features of GUAREX
Outlook on GUAREX
GUAREX index depends on the price movement of guarseed and guargum. Guarseed is a very important commodity for the industrial use. The by-products of guarseed–1) Guargum is vastly used for the various industries like textile, printing, oil drilling mining, cosmetics & pharmaceuticals and constructions. There are many uses in the food industries as a thickening agent and it is found in frozen foods, baked goods, dairy products, beverages, dressing and sauces. The other byproducts called Churi- Korma are also used in animal food as it contains high proteins and fibers.
Currently, guar seed and guar gum prices are higher by 60% and 94% y/y respectively, on expectations of tight supplies in 2022, due to lower productions in India, that accounts for more than 90% of total world production. The exports of guar gum and domestic demand for the churi-korma also improving as feed industry is facing higher prices from the traditional feed sources likesoybean meals. As per the data released by APEDA, guar gum exports are higher by more than 44% y/y at 2.09 lakh tonnes in 2021/22 (Apr-Nov). The major export destinations during 2021/22 are USA, Norway and China.
We expect guar gum demand will be increasing as the season progresses and exports might surge to pre-covid times. Thus, prices are expected to bullish on higher export demand. Moreover, US oil rigs are also rising with the current count showing at 492 rigs up 205 compared to last year.
Rupee broadly remained unchanged this week amid bulk corporate dollar flows helped rupee not to fall below 74.80 vs dollar despite oil price rose to $88, which is the highest level in seven years. However at the same time FIIs have sold nearly $1.1bn equities in last six trading sessions which capped sudden rise in rupee above 74.00 as well. Ahead of FOMC meeting next week, we think the weakness in rupee will continue and may fall to 74.85 in coming days. From the majors, euro turns negative after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde continues to embrace a dovish view on inflation, saying that the ECB has every reason not to over respond to rising inflation. Although eurusd likely to take support around 1.13 before FOMC take the euro move further. Accordingly EURINR may prevent any steep fall below 84.00 while if FOMC meeting outcome turns more dovish than expected, then we may find EURINR scaling higher above 85.30 in coming days. While pound prevent from sharp fall as traders continue to expect the Bank of England to tighten multiple times this year, the first 25 bps hike is expected next month.
USD/INR (JAN) contract closed at 74.5500 on 20-Jan-21. The contract made its high of 74.8050 on 19-Jan-21 and a low of 74.2250 on 17-Jan-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 74.6000.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.55.One can buy at 74.40 for the target of 75.40 with the stop loss of 73.90.
GBP/INR (JAN) contract closed at 101.4825 on 20-Jan-21. The contract made its high of 101.8250 on 17-Jan-21 and a low of 101.3050 on 19-Jan-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 101.1450.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.76. One can buy at 101.00 for a target of 102.00 with the stop loss of 100.50.
| 21st JAN | Biden hardens warning to Russia after Kyiv says no attack is ‘minor’ |
| 21st JAN | Japanese inflation rises 0.5% for second month as fuel costs surge |
| 20th JAN | UK consumer confidence plunges over rising living costs and inflation |
| 20th JAN | Fed opens debate over possible digital currency |
| 20th JAN | Russia’s central bank proposes ban on crypto trading and mining |
| 19th JAN | Germany’s 10-year Bund yield turns positive for first time since 2019 |
| 19th JAN | UK inflation jumps to highest level in 30 years |
| 18th JAN | Bank of Japan revises inflation projection for first time since 2014 |
| 17th JAN | China’s GDP growth slows as Covid restrictions and property woes hit demand |
EUR/INR (JAN) contract closed at 84.5725 on 20-Jan-21. The contract made its high of 85.3800 on 17-Jan-21 and a low of 84.4475 on 20-Jan-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 84.7300.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.17. One can sell at 84.80 for a target of 83.80 with the stop loss of 85.30.
JPY/INR (JAN) contract closed at 65.2125 on 20-Jan-21. The contract made its high of 65.4150 on 19-Jan-21 and a low of 64.5250 on 17-Jan-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 65.1100.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.45. One can buy at 65.25 for a target of 66.25 with the stop loss of 64.75.
Adani Wilmar Ltd, the equal joint venture between Adani Enterprises Ltd and Wilmar International Ltd, and the owner of the Fortune brand of edible oils, has set the price band for its public issue at Rs 218-230 per share, valuing the company at Rs26,287.82 crore. IPO will open on January 27 for subscription and close on January 31. It plans to go listed on February 8 on exchanges. The firm has cut its IPO size to Rs 3,600 crore from Rs 4,500 crore earlier. The proceeds from the issue worth Rs 1,900 crore will be used for capital expenditure, Rs 1,058.90 crore for repayment of debt and Rs 450 crore will be used for funding strategic acquisition and investment. Kotak Mahindra Capital, JP Morgan India, BofA Securities India, Credit Suisse Securities India, ICICI Securities, HDFC Bank and BNP Paribas are the lead managers to the issue. For the period ended September 2021, the firm reported a consolidated total income of Rs 24,957.29 crore as against Rs 16,273,73 crore a year ago. Net profit for the period stood at Rs 357.13 crore versus Rs 288.79 crore last year. As of September 2021, the aggregate outstanding borrowings of the firm (on consolidated level) was at Rs 9,191.55 crore.
Radiant Cash Management Services, an integrated cash logistics player, and online education platform Veranda Learning Solutions have received the go ahead from capital markets regulator Sebi to float their initial public offerings (IPOs). The two companies, filed their preliminary IPO papers with Sebi between October and November and obtained the observation letter during January 10-11, an update with Sebi showed . Going by the draft papers, Radiant Cash Management Services' IPO comprises fresh issue of shares worth up to Rs 60 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 3 crore shares by promoter David Devasahayam and private equity firm Ascent Capital Advisors India. In 2015, Ascent Capital had acquired a 37.2 per cent stake in the company. Out of the fresh issue proceeds, Rs 20 crore will be used for funding working capital requirements and Rs 23.92 crore for capital expenditure requirements for purchase of specially fabricated armoured vans. The Chennai-based company is an integrated cash logistics player with a leading presence in the retail cash management segment. Meanwhile, Veranda Learning Solutions Ltd is looking to raise Rs 200 crore through an initial share-sale, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). The IPO is the primary issuance of equity shares. Proceeds of the public issue will be utilized towards repayment or pre-payment of loan, retirement of acquisition consideration of Edureka and growth initiatives. Veranda is a comprehensive 360-degree online education platform. It is engaged in the business of offering diversified and integrated learning solutions in online, offline hybrid and offline blended formats to students, aspirants, and graduates professionals and corporate employees.
Supply chain company Delhivery has received capital markets regulator Sebi's approval to raise Rs 7,460 crore through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO comprises fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs 5,000 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) component of Rs 2,460 crore by existing shareholders, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). Under the OFS, investors Carlyle Group and SoftBank as well as Delhivery's co-founders will divest their shareholding in the logistics company. The company, which filed its preliminary IPO papers with Sebi in November, obtained its observations letter on January 13. According to the draft papers, CA Swift Investments, an entity of Carlyle Group, will sell shares to the tune of Rs 920 crore, SVF Doorbell (Cayman) Ltd, an arm of Softbank Group, will offload shares worth 750 crores, Deli CMF Pte Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of private equity fund China Momentum Fund, L.P. will sell shares worth Rs 400 crore and Times Internet will sell shares worth Rs 330 crore.
Emcure Pharmaceuticals has received regulatory approvals for its draft red herring prospectus and will shortly be filing the RHP for the Rs 5,000-crore initial share sale, which will hit the market soon after the Budget. The company will utilize Rs 947 crore from the proceeds of the issue to repay/prepay debt which as of March 2021 stood at Rs 1,252.6 crore, the merchant banking sources told PTI on Thursday, adding the issue will hit the market early next month. Emcure is one of the market leaders in HIV antivirals, gynaecology and blood-related therapeutic areas, and had a domestic market share of 51.53 per cent, 11.85 per cent and 10.26 per cent, respectively, as of March 2021, according to a Crisil report. Its product portfolio includes orals, injectables and biologics, as well as an mRNA platform through which it is developing a Covid-19 vaccine, that has enabled it to reach a range of target market across over 70 countries with a strong presence in Europe and Canada. Emcure reported revenue of Rs 6,091.8 crore in FY21, Rs 5,130.8 crore in FY20 and Rs 4,815.6 crore in FY19 and respectively earned net income of Rs 418.6 crore, Rs 100.6 crore and Rs 202.9 crore during these years. Between FY19 and FY21, its total domestic sales grew at an annual rate of 11.28 per cent from Rs 3,285.6 crore to Rs 4,068.6 crore, outperforming industry's 5.78 per cent, thanks to its presence in most therapeutic areas, including, gynaecology, cardiovascular, vitamins, minerals and nutrients, oncology/anti-neoplastic, HIV.
Automobile dealership chain Landmark Cars Ltd has filed preliminary prospectus with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise Rs 762 crore through an initial public offering. The public issue consists of a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating to Rs 150 crore and an Offer For Sale (OFS) of up to Rs 612 crore, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). The OFS comprises sale of shares worth up to Rs 400 crore by TPG Growth II SF PTE Ltd, up to Rs 62 crore by Sanjay Karsandas Thakker HUF, up to Rs 120 crore by Aastha Limited and up to Rs 30 crore by Garima Misra. The Initial Public Offering (IPO) also includes a reservation for subscription by eligible employees. Proceeds from its fresh issuance worth Rs 120 crore will be utilised for payment of debt and general corporate purposes. TPGbacked Landmark Cars is a leading premium automotive retail business in India with dealerships for Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Jeep, Volkswagen and Renault. Landmark Cars, otherwise known as Group Landmark has a presence across the automotive retail value chain, which includes sales of new vehicles, after-sales service and repairs, including sales of spare parts, lubricants and accessories, and sales of pre-owned passenger vehicles.
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Edelweiss Recently Listed IPO Fund, a scheme that invests in newly-listed companies or those that plan to hit the capital markets soon, will limit investments to a maximum of ₹1 lakh per day per investor from February 1. The scheme, launched as a closed-end scheme in February 2018 with a maturity of 1,222 days, went open-ended in May 2021 when it had assets of ₹522 crore. With the assets doubling to ₹1,091 crore as of December 2021, the fund house has decided to put restrictions on flows.
DSP Investment Managers have launched DSP Global Innovation Fund of Fund (DSP GIF). DSP GIF is a Fund of Fund which will invest in a mix of active and passive funds run by experts in their respective spaces. The New Fund Offer of the scheme will open on January 24 and close for subscription on February 7. The underlying funds for DSP GIF include iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF, BGF World Tech fund D2 USD, iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF, Nikko AM ARK Disruptive Innovation Fund, Morgan Stanley US Insight Fund and Bluebox Global Technology Fund. According to the fund house, this fund will focus on innovation as its key driver and identifies companies that have innovative thinking at their core. These include emerging innovation themes like Metaverse, Semiconductors, Blockchain, 5G, Gene Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Space Exploration, Electric Vehicles & Robotics, among others.
UTI Mutual Fund has launched an open-ended scheme tracking the S&P BSE Sensex Total Return Index (TRI) - ‘UTI Sensex Index Fund’. The New Fund Offer opens on January 19 and closes for subscription on January 24. The scheme will re-open for subscription and redemption on an ongoing basis from February 01. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns that closely correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking error. Sharwan Kumar Goyal will manage the scheme. “UTI Sensex Index Fund is a low-cost index fund which will track the S&P BSE Sensex Index passively. The scheme will aim to offer an opportunity to capitalize on the growth of the basket of blue-chip companies in a disciplined manner,” said Sharwan Kumar Goyal, Head - Passive, Arbitrage & Quant Strategies, UTI MF. UTI Sensex Index fund will offer exposure to a diversified portfolio of 30 largest, most liquid and financially sound companies across key sectors of the Indian economy. It is suitable for investors looking for a simple yet cost effective way of investing in ‘top 30’ companies on the listed universe of BSE.
Navi Mutual Fund has launched the Navi Nifty Bank Index Fund, an open-ended equity scheme that will replicate the Nifty Bank Index. The index fund offers investors a cost-effective way to invest, according to a press release. The expense ratio for the direct plan is 0.12%. The NFO will close for subscription on January 31st. Earlier, Navi Mutual Fund had launched Nifty 50 Index Fund and Nifty Next 50 Index Fund. According to the press release, the scheme offers exposure to 12 stocks from the banking sector, including 10 private and 2 PSU banks which capture 88% of the market capitalization of all the listed banks.
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