2020: Issue 729, Week: 30th March - 3rd April

A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only)




Get easy business loans with SMC Finance

At SMCCHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY) Finance, We make it easy for you to get a loan. Whether you are expanding your business, upgrading new equipments or for working capital. We are here to help you grow fast.

Professional and Transparent approach

Quick loan approval & disbursal

Hassle-free documentation process

Attractive Rate of Interest

Call Toll-Free 1800118818

E-mail nbfccare@smcfinance.com

Medical Equipment Finance | Personal Loan | Loan Against Property | Loan Against Shares/Mutual Funds/Bonds | MSME/SME Financing | Lease Rental Discounting | Promoter Financing | Debtors Financing | Structured Financing | Affordable Housing Application Financing | IPO/ NCD Financing | Business Loan

Moneywise Financial Services Pvt. Ltd. (A wholly owned subsidiary of SMC Global Securities Ltd.) Corporate Office: 11/6-B, 2nd Floor, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005, Tel. +91-11-30111000, CIN No.: U51909WB1996PTC078352



From The Desk Of Editor


n the week gone by, steps taken by the policy makers around the globe to support Ithe flattering economies infused optimism and stock markets around the world climbed sharply higher. Almost all the countries are now working on finance packages to cushion the economic blow. Meanwhile, Business activity in the US and Eurozone sank to the lowest level on record in March. Arecord 3.3 million people filed claims for unemployment in the US last week as the Covid-19 pandemic shut down large parts of America’s economy and the full scale of the impact of the crisis began to emerge

Back at home, domestic markets also rallied after Finance Minister announced various welfare measures to tide through the coronavirus crisis. The government on Thursday unveiled a Rs 1.70 lakh crore economic package for poor for the next three months to ease the economic impact of lockdown. Moreover, domestic markets have been driven by optimism on $2 trillion package to US economy and also in anticipation of injection of liquidity by the RBI for the Indian economy. On Friday, RBI has announced a cut of 75 basis points in the repo rate to 4.4 per cent. The RBI Governor also announced a cut of 100 basis points in the cash reserve ratio for a period of one year in order to ensure sufficient liquidity in the system. The measures announced by the RBI will inject a liquidity of 3.74 lakh crore in the system. RBI has also asked all banks and other lending institutions to allow a three-month moratorium on all term loans (including agricultural term loans, retail and crop loans). Moody's Investors Service has lowered its estimate for India's GDPgrowth in calendar 2020 to 2.5% from 5.3% forecast earlier. Going forward, the outbreak of Covid-19 will be closely watched by the investors and the increase or decrease in number of cases will continue to dictate the trend of the market going forward.

On the commodity market front, after a sharp fall of four week in CRB, it saw some valuebuyingfromlowerlevels,neverthelessstabilityathigherlevelsstill questionable. Agri commodities may see more buying as supply concern rise on lockdown issues in many parts of the world, including India, which has 1.3 billion people to feed. Crude oil may witness some short covering after world leaders promised a massive injection of funds to limit the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, though upside will be capped on fears of further outbreak will destroy demand for oil. Bullion counter can continue its upside momentum. Gold can move towards 44500 while taking support near 42500 while silver may move higher towards 43500 while taking support near 40200 levels. Industrial metals may try to get some stability at current levels and they are not as volatile as bullion and energy counter. German CPI and Unemployment Change, manufacturing PMI of China, CPI of EU, GDPof Canada, Canadian Manufacturing PMI, Consumer Confidence Index, ISM Employment, ISM Manufacturing, Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite of US are major economic indicators which are very crucial triggers for the market.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.





• Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced Rs 1.7 lakh crore financial package for the poor to help them deal with the ongoing crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic. The FM also announced Rs 50 lakh per person insurance cover for doctors, paramedic and healthcare workers dealing with coronavirus outbreak.

• Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor slashed the key lending rate by 75 basis points (0.75 percentage point) in an emergency move, to counter the economic fallout of the coronavirus-induced 21-day lockout.


• Hindustan Unilever Ltd. agreed to acquire an intimate feminine hygiene brand from Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd. as part of its plan to enter fast-growing segments of the future in the premium beauty and personal care category.

• Britannia industries urged the government to ensure inter-state movement of the raw material for the food processing industry during the three-week lockdown, imposed to prevent pandemic of Covid-19. The government should issue necessary permits immediately to all people who are part of the food industry supply chain.


• Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has received tentative approval from the US health regulator for generic Dapagliflozin tablets used for treatment of type-2 diabetes. The product is a generic version of AstraZeneca AB's Farxiga tablets.

• Cipla has received final approval from the US health regulator for generic Esomeprazole for oral suspension used for treatment of gastroesophageal reflux disease. The company has received final approval for its abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for Esomeprazole for oral suspension in the strengths of 10mg, 20mg and 40mg from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA).

Oil & Gas

• Indraprastha Gas Ltd shut down nearly two-third of its CNG dispensing outlets in Delhi, Noida and Ghaziabad as most vehicles went off-road due to coronavirus lockdown. While the company will operate 55 outlets spread across the national capital territory to cater to limited demand as part of the rationalisation exercise, its piped natural gas supplies will remain unaffected by the lockdown.

• The world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Aramco has said it is focusing its downstream investments in high-growth nations such as India as it negotiates a deal to buy up to 20 per cent stake in Reliance Industries' USD 75 billion oil-to-chemical business.

• Indian Oil Corporation has cut capacity utilisation by 25-30% at its refineries as demand for petroleum products have dramatically fallen in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic.


• US new home sales tumbled by 4.4 percent to an annual rate of 765,000 in February after spiking by 10.5 percent to an upwardly revised rate of 800,000 in January. With the upward revision,the annualrate of new home sales inJanuarywas thehighest sincereaching842,000inMayof2007.

• US business inventories edged down by 0.1 percent in January after coming in unchanged in December. The slight drop in inventories matched economist estimates.

• US industrial production climbed by 0.6 percent in February after falling by a downwardly revised 0.5 percent in January. Economists had expected industrial production to increase by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.3 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.

• US retail sales fell by 0.5 percent in February after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in January. The pullback came as a surprise to economists, who had expected retail sales to edge up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.3 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

• Producer prices in Japan were up 2.1 percent on year in February. That was shy of expectations for an annual increase of 2.2 percent and down from 2.3 percent in January.


Stocks *Closing Price Trend Date Trend Changed Rate Trend Changed SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing S/l
S&P BSE SENSEX 29816 DOWN 13.03.20 34103 - 37000 38300
NIFTY50 8660 DOWN 13.03.20 9955 - 10800 11200
NIFTY IT 12569 DOWN 13.03.20 13665 - 14800 15400
NIFTY BANK 19969 DOWN 13.03.20 25347 - 28000 29000
ACC 959 DOWN 14.02.20 1440 - 1100 1130
BHARTIAIRTEL 449 DOWN 13.03.20 492 - 510 520
BPCL 279 DOWN 28.02.20 426 - 340 360
CIPLA 408 DOWN 20.02.20 436 - 440 450
SBIN 196 DOWN 28.02.20 303 - 235 245
HINDALCO 92 DOWN 31.01.20 189 - 115 120
ICICI BANK 340 DOWN 28.02.20 497 - 405 415
INFOSYS 653 DOWN 13.03.20 642 - 690 720
ITC 163 DOWN 31.05.19 279 175 180
L&T 837 DOWN 15.11.19 1378 1000 1030
MARUTI 4646 DOWN 31.01.20 6913 - 6913 5700
NTPC 83 DOWN 16.08.19 118 105 108
ONGC 64 DOWN 06.12.19 127 80 84
RELIANCE 1066 DOWN 31.01.20 1412 - 1180 1210
TATASTEEL 277 DOWN 31.01.20 439 - 330 345

Closing as on 27-03-2020


1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.


Meeting Date Company name Purpose
30-Mar-20 Hexaware Technologies Dividend - Rs 2.50 Per Share
31-Mar-20 CRISIL Dividend Rs 13 Per Share
31-Mar-20 TIPS Industries Buyback
31-Mar-20 NACL Industries Interim Dividend
3-Apr-20 Ambuja Cements Dividend - Rs 1.50 Per Share
22-Apr-20 Castrol India Dividend - Rs 3 Per Share
22-Apr-20 Vesuvius India Dividend Rs 8.74 Per Share
23-Apr-20 KSB Dividend - Rs 8 Per Share
31-Mar-20 Minda Industries Fund Raising/ Other business matters
31-Mar-20 Sicagen India Voluntary Delisting
18-Apr-20 HDFC Bank Financial Results/ Dividend
25-Apr-20 Persistent Systems Financial Results/ Dividend
12-May-20 12-May-20 Financial Results
18-May-20 Rane Engine Valve Financial Results
19-May-20 Rane Brake Lining Financial Results
19-May-20 Transport Corp. of India Financial Results
20-May-20 Rane (Madras) Financial Results
27-May-20 Rane Holdings Financial Results





Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis


CMP: 408.45

Target Price: 464

Upside: 14%


Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 585.50/356.75
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 32930.68
EPS (Rs.) 20.69
P/E Ratio (times) 19.74
P/B Ratio (times) 2.11
Dividend Yield (%) 0.73
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• Cipla is one of the leading Pharmaceutical companies in India and third largest in South Africa (by market share) and has a widespread presence a c r o s s t h e g l o b e t h r o u g h v a r i o u s subsidiaries/associates as reflected in 61% of consolidated net revenue being contributed through sales outside India in FY19. The company has a diverse range of more than 1,500 products (with more than 50 dosage forms).

• Cipla has come forward to manufacture anti-viral drugs, which could be effective for Covid-19, through a partnership with CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT). CSIR-IICT has decided to work on three promising compounds namely Remidesivir, Favipiravir and Baloxavir. It would take about six to 10 weeks to make two of the compounds of 100 gms each at the lab scale.

• The company has 46 manufacturing facilities with presence in over 80 markets. The company has a diversified product portfolio and leadership in domestic segments including in respiratory, antii n f e c ti v e , c a r d i a c , g y n e c o l o g y a n d gastrointestinal therapies; considerable market share in niche segments like HIV/AIDS and respiratory in countries like South Africa and India respectively. Such diversity in the revenue geographically as well as in product base insulates the company from significant adverse fluctuation in the revenue.

• The company is looking to improve synergies in the areas of distribution, portfolio and customer focus

across prescription, trade generics and OTC category in the domestic formulation segment. It has 65 ANDAs pending for approval and continues to file 10-12 ANDAs annually for the US market.

• During the quarter ended December 2019, growth across key business drives overall revenue growth of 9% on a year on year basis with adjusted EBITDA at 18.5% and reported EBITDAat 17.3%.


• Any regulatory changes

• Currency fluctuation


The management has taken initial actions on portfolio and leadership structure to leverage the synergies which in the coming quarters will evolve significantly. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.464 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/Ex of 19.74 and FY21 EPS of Rs.23.52.


CMP: 19.35

Target Price: 23



Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 29.00/15.15
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 19437.14
EPS (Rs.) 3.32
P/E Ratio (times) 5.82
P/B Ratio (times) 0.61
Dividend Yield (%) 7.97
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• The company has been selected as aggregator for Ministry of Power’s pilot scheme – 2 for allotment of short term PPAs of 2500 MW. As per the scheme, PTC Consulting limited (PTC)will act as consultantin order to help the stressed thermal power plants in the countrywhichdonotcurrentlyhavePPAs inplace.

• On the development front, NHPC has acquired 500MW Teesta VI Hydro Project from Lanco Teesta Hydro Power Limited in October 2019 with NHPC making an upfront payment of Rs.900 crore. The estimated project cost is likely to be Rs.5750 crore, to be funded in a debt:equity ratio of 70:30 and management of the company expects to complete the project by FY25 and is in the process of awarding the mechanical, electrical and civil packages.As per the management, around 50% of the project’s civil work is already complete. Moreover, it has also declared as the successful bidder by the Committee of Creditors of Jalpower Corporation Limited forthe acquisition of 120MW Rangit Stage IV Hydro Electric Projectin January 2020.

• NHPC is also looking at some of the stressed hydel power projects to expand its generation capacity. The company is interested to bid for Athena Energy’s Demwe project in Arunachal Pradesh

• According to the management of the company, FY20 Capex would be around Rs.3800 crore comprising Rs.1100 crore for Subansiri Lower, Rs.770 crore for Parbati II, Rs.420 crore for TeestaVI and the remaining for joint venture (JV) projects, renewables and the pre-investment activities for new projects.

• According to the management of the company, FY20 Capex would be around Rs.3800 crore comprising Rs.1100 crore for Subansiri Lower, Rs.770 crore for Parbati II, Rs.420 crore for TeestaVI and the remaining for joint venture (JV) projects, renewables and the pre-investment

activities for Dibang Multipurpose Project (2,880MW).


• Change in Government regulations or policies

• Highly competitive


The management of the company is planning to increase market share with larger clients by expanding product offerings over long term. Its investments in R&D enable to build a portfolio that takes into consideration the demand of the customers as well as cost advantage. The company has been formulating its strategic priorities in tune with global market trends and future requirements. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1151 in 8 to 10 months time frame on three year average P/Ex of 9.85x and FY21 earningsThe company has good fundamental base and consistently performed well on quarterly basis as well as yearly. The management of the company expects double digit growth in FY20 and increase more power generation capacity as compared to earlier years. The company is actively exploring opportunities for the development of pumped storage schemes in potential rich states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Odisha etc. The Company has identified some projects in Maharashtra and Karnataka and is under discussion with respective state governments for DPR (Detailed Power Project) preparation and subsequent development of pumped storage projects. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.23 in 8 to 10 months time frame on an estimated P/E of 8x and FY21 (E) earnings of Rs.2.86.

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.



Beat the Street-Technical Analysis

Berger Paints (I) Limited (BERGERPAINT)

The stock closed at Rs 485.60 on 27th March, 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 292.05 on 16th May 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 597 on 05th February, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 461.47

Due to the correction in broader indices, stock also witnessed decent correction from all time high and found support around 400 levels, started moving higher. Last week, stock gained more than 7% and formed reversal candle on weekly charts along with high volumes so we anticipate follow up buying may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 472-476 levels for the upside target of 530-540 levels with SL below 440

Hindustan Unilever Limited (HINDUNILVR)

The stock closed at Rs 2140.55 on 27th March 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1650 on 05th April 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 2308.20 on 19th February, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1985.09

Short term, Medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, it is forming a “Cup and Handle” pattern on weekly charts, which also considered bullish. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 2080-2100 levels for the upside target of 2300-2350 levels with SL below 2000.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Indian markets began last week on a negative note, but somehow it managed to pare most of the losses during rest of the trading sessions to end the week with minor losses. After sliding back below the 7550 mark, Nifty indices recovered sharply by nearly 1000 points, to once again reclaim 8650 levels on the back of short covering from lower levels. However, bears continued to grip the markets even after RBI announced repo rate cut of 75 basis points as sentiments worsened after RBI Governor admitted the growth projection of 4.7% for the March quarter. From technical front, despite a V shape recovery from lower levels, Nifty will face a strong hurdle at 9000 levels. On downside, however 8300-8100 zone would be a crucial support for the markets. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 63.13% while that for put options closed at 70.45%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 71.53% and is expected to remain volatile with bullish bias. PCR OI for the week closed at 0.58 indicating more call writing than put. We expect markets to remain highly volatile in coming week as traders will keep a watch on any developments regarding updates on corona virus spread.












Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering




Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to trade with an upside bias holding on the support near 5700, while the upside may remain capped near 6100. India's agriculture exports of spices including this yellow herb used for medicinal properties have seen a surge in March, with the Covid-19 outbreak prompting people across the globe to stock up. Hence, looking at the supply worries, there might be shortage in consuming centres and this will cushion the prices. Jeera futures (Apr) is likely to consolidate & hold its gains in the range of 13500-14800 levels. The frequent dark clouds bringing unseasonal rain in the major growing districts has, to some extent, adversely affected cumin seed crop. The quality of the cumin crop has been completely affected due to the strong wind with the rains in the midst of sudden change of weather. Now the farmers are busy covering this cumin crop so that it can be properly stored and preserved in time. Farmers told that there is more complaint of change of color in cumin. The market participants are optimistic that it would have a positive impact on the prices. Anticipating the double whammy of crop failure and present scenario of scarcity in supply due to lock down, will add support the counter. Coriander futures (April) would probably trade with a positive bias in the range of 5800-6500. This season the farmers who had grown coriander have been affected as their crops are lying in the fields and not being picked up. While, initially, most States announced that mandis will open from April 1, it now appears as if they will be closed till April 14 due to the nationwide lock-down.


Bullion counter may continue its bounce back as decline in greenback, safe haven buying amid fear of global slowdown amid wide spread coronavirus pandemic is boosting the price higher. Meanwhile silver is outperforming gold as gold silver ratio has declined from above 125 to below 113 which can further decline towards 108.Meanwhile global central banks have been turning to quantitative easing (QE), or large-scale purchases of government bonds and other financial assets to pump money into the economy. Gold can move towards 44500 while taking support near 42500 while silver may move higher towards 43500 while taking support near 38000 levels. Gold got boost recently after data showed a record high of more than 3 million Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits as strict measures to contain the pandemic hit economic activity. Extraordinary steps by the Fed last week, including uncapping the size of asset purchases and buying investment grade bonds, should push real interest rates deeper into negative territory and in turn support demand for real assets like gold. India’s sales of gold jewelry to bars are set to plunge to the lowest in a quarter of a century as a lockdown to combat the rapidly spreading coronavirus brings the industry to a standstill. Demand in the world’s second-biggest gold consumer has already tumbled, slammed by record high domestic prices and an economy headed for the slowest pace of growth in 11 years. Meanwhile three of the world's largest gold refineries had suspended production in Switzerland for at least a week after local authorities ordered the closure of non-essential industry to curtail the spread of the virus.


Soybean futures (April) is expected to trade with a positive bias in the range of 3700-4000 levels. The gains may remain intact due to waning supply in domestic markets as mills are shut following the nationwide lockdown. Moreover, U.S Soybean is gaining grounds on the American bourse due to rising demand for the US crop from China. The Asian nation is expected to import more soybeans in 2020 as it recovers from African swine fever. China's soybean imports are forecast to reach 86 million mt in 2020-21, up 2.4% on the year, based on a recovery in crush volume for animal feed as the swine herd rebuilding continues, the USDA said. Mustard futures (April) taking support near 4000 can again retest 4200 levels on the higher side. This Rabi oilseed crop across many parts of North India has witnessed heavy damage due to the repeated spells of heavy rain accompanied by hailstorm and strong winds this month. This year’s mustard crop seemed to be in good shape and may had witness one of the highest crops in recent times. However, rains in some growing areas may have damaged the crop and the final number may be lower. Soy oil futures (April) would probably continue to remain in positive territory in the range of 780-820 levels. While, CPO futures (Apr) may consolidate in the range of 625-675 levels, maintaining its upbeat. The reason being is due to insufficient stocks in physical markets following tepid imports and rising demand due to the lockdown. It is being estimated that India’s edible oil imports could come down by 5 per cent this year to 14.2 million tonnes as weakening rupee combines with supply chain disruption due to outbreak of coronavirus


Crude oil may remain under pressure as the coronavirus pandemic sharply dented global fuel demand but some recovery can be seen as world leaders promised a massive injection of funds to limit the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, despite fears the outbreak will destroy demand for oil. Leaders of the Group of 20 major economies pledged to inject over $5 trillion into the global economy to limit job and income losses from the coronavirus and “do whatever it takes to overcome the pandemic. Fuel demand is expected to fall sharply worldwide in the second quarter with aviation largely at a halt and road travel severely curtailed. Crude oil can weaken towards 1700-1600 range by facing resistance towards 2100. Threats of increasing supplies by OPEC and Russia are other downside risks for the market after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia failed to extend an agreement to cut production and support prices beyond end-March. Moreover the demand for oil products, especially jet fuel, is falling worldwide as more governments announce nationwide lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus, putting a lid on oil price gains. International Energy Agency stated that with the pandemic shutting in around 3 billion people around the world, crude-oil demand was setto plunge by 20 million barrels a day in the first half of 2020. Natural gas can remain on sideways path in range of 120-140. The weatheris expected to be warmerthan normal overthe next 2-weeks, according to the mostrecentforecast by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.


Cotton futures (Apr) is likely to trade with a downside bias towards 16000- 15500 on the bearish footsteps of the overseas market. The price outlook for ICE cotton futures (Apr) is negative as there are possibilities that it may breach 50 and nose dive to 45 cents per pound. The market participants are keeping more visibility on the demand-supply figures by keeping a note of the weekly export sales report given by the US Department of Agriculture. Back at home, the Cotton Corp of India has halted procurement of the fibre at its centres due to closure of spot markets after the Centre imposed a 21-day nationwide lockdown to curb the rapid spread of coronavirus in the country. On the demand side, coronavirus pandemic has affected the exports badly. China uses India’s cotton to make finished products, which are then exported to the United States. A slump in India’s exports to China has hit the global cotton industry. Castor seed futures (April) might witness lower level buying near 3900 and later during the week may rise to test 4400-4600 levels. The market sentiments have turned positive after China in a major milestone lifted the lock down in the Hubei lockdown. It is important to note here that China accounts for a roughly 30% share of India’s total export of castor oil and derivatives. In days to come, we may see more export demand from China as demand would be growing for castor oil by manufacturers of automotive biopolymers, lubricants, and paints. Mentha oil (April) is expected to take sport near 1050, while the upside may get extended towards 1250. The stockists are indulged in lower level buying at it is trading near its 2 year low.


Base metals may trade with mixed path with some recovery can be seen amid stimulus measure given by various countries to lift the dampened economic sentiment. Copper may recover towards 390 while taking support near 355. Top copper miner Codelco stated that it would suspend construction of some projects including the Chuquicamata mine in a bid to halt the virus from spreading. Meanwhile top listed copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc stated that it will slash output due to the pandemic. Zinc may recover towards 150 by taking support near 140. The global zinc market flipped to a surplus of 356000 tonnes in January, while lead market deficit shrank to 3,100 tonnes in January, industry data showed. Lead may remain in range as it can face resistance near 138 while taking support near 128. Nickel may trade in range as take support near 840 while taking resistance near 890. The global nickel market surplus widened to 13,100 tonnes in January from a surplus of 5,200 tonnes in the previous month. China’s nickel ore imports in the first two months of 2020 fell 5.1% from a year earlier, according customs data as the ban on exports from top miner Indonesia came into force. Aluminum also may remain in narrow range of 131-136. Aluminium stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are at a 10-month high of 533,994 tonnes, while inventories in LME approved warehouses have risen to a one-month high of 1.1 million tonnes. Data showed recently that year-on-year global output of the Aluminium rose 3.8 per cent in February even though month-on-month production declined 6.2 per cent.





COPPER MCX (APR) contract closed at Rs. 374.95 on 26th Mar’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 439.45 on 20th Feb’2020 and a low of Rs.337.55 on 19th Mar’2020. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 396.70 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 26.83.

One can sell around Rs. 385 for a target of Rs.360 with the stop loss of Rs. 395.

CRUDE OIL MCX (APR) contract closed at Rs. 1787 on 26th Mar’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 4186 on 21st Jan’2020 and a low of Rs. 1717 on 18th Mar’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 2296 on the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 25.68.

One can sell around Rs.1900 for a target of Rs. 1600 with the stop loss of Rs. 2030.

SOYA REF OIL NCDEX (APR) contract was closed at Rs. 799.80 on 26th Mar’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 938.40 on 02nd Jan’2020 and a low of Rs. 687.20 on 13th Mar’2020. The 18-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe commodity is currently at Rs. 771.18 onthedailychart,thecommodityhasRelativeStrengthIndex(14-day)valueof57.65.

One can sell at Rs. 810 for a target of Rs. 760 with the stop loss of Rs 840.




ź SEBI and exchanges have decided to reduce the trading ours in commodities and commodity derivatives till 5pmh

ź The Finance Minister said thatthe government will provide 5kg ofrice or wheat- whateveris preferred - along with 1kg ofpulses,according to regional preferences.

ź Gujarat government orders all the APMCs in the state to resume operations of auctions for agri food commodities including grains and pulses.

ź U.S. exchange launched a new gold futures contract with expanded delivery options that include gold bars.

ź China, the world’s top importer of the oilseed, brought in 6.101 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in January and February, up from 1.044 million tonnes in the same months in 2019.

ź The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund urged official bilateral creditors to provide immediate debt relief to the world's poorest countries as they grapple with severe consequences of the virus.

ź Saudi Arabia is struggling to find customers for its extra oil as demand plummets due to the coronavirus and freight rates surge.

ź Glencore PLC halted a number of smaller mines due to government restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

ź The ECB has ditched a cap on how many bonds it can buy from any single euro zone country, clearing the way for potentially unlimited money-printing as it scales up its response to the coronavirus outbreak.

ź U.S. exchange operator CME Group announced a new gold futures contract to combat price volatility caused by the shutdown of gold supply routes.


After a sharp fall in last four week in CRB, it saw some value buying from lower levels, nevertheless stability at higher levels still questionable. Agri commodities saw more buying as supply concern rose on lockdown issues in many parts of the world, including India, which has 1.3 billion people to feed. Fall in dollar index also stimulated buying. The dollar is on track for its biggest weekly fall in more than a decade as a series of stimulus steps around the world, including a $2.2 trillion U.S. package, calmed a panic over a global recession following the coronavirus outbreak. Bullion counter saw major movements which jumped on safe haven buying but important is that silver outperformed gold and gold silver ratio improved to 110:1from 125:1. Gold prices rose as a record increase in U.S. jobless claims encouraged expectations of yet more stimulus, a process that many gold investors will ultimately lead to the debasement of fiat currencies. The Senate already approved a $2 trillion stimulus package on Wednesday, the biggest of its kind ever. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits surged to a record of more than 3.28 million last week as strict measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic unleashed a wave of layoffs. It eclipsed the previous record of 695,000 set in 1982 and was up 3 million from last week. Crude gave up its weekly upside on Thursday and closed in sideways to negative territory. Goldman Sachs expects oil demand to fall by 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in March and possibly by as much as 18.7 million bpd in April. Natural gas was sideways. Industrial metals gave some respect to the stimulus given by major economies and saw pause in fall. Some of the saw lower level buying. Rebound in equity market also supported the upside.

Agri commodities saw good rebound. Spices consumption has increased and it reflected in futures movements. Most of them saw good upside but the bid and ask gap increased due to low volume. Exporters across India are confirming an increased interest from corona-affected countries in consuming raw turmeric. The demand for raw turmeric has risen sharply in the UK and Germany. Oil and oil seeds futures gained as sentiments were positive due to improved buying at lower price levels. Gains in U.S soybean on CBOT also lent support to the domestic prices. China’s soybean imports from the United States in the first two months of the year rose sixfold from the same period last year. Castor prices saw good jump. As situation is getting better in China, the exporters have started getting order.







SPOT PRICES (% change)



Crude oil … “Brunt by coronavirus (COVID-19)

Crude oil continued to slide as demand dwindled in most countries as they have gone under lockdown to check the spread of Covid-19. Currently the benchmark brent crude & WTI crude prices has slide below $30 and $ 25 per barrel separately. Oil prices has dropped about 55% as the pandemic has cut demand at the same time the collapse of coordinated output cuts by OPEC and Russia.

Demand impact of the virus is unclear

Although the full demand impact of the virus is still unclear, but oil consumption is certainly under severe pressure as countries continue to escalate measures to stem the spread of the virus. Demand for oil products, especially jet fuel, is falling worldwide as more governments announce nationwide lockdowns to stop the spread of coronavirus. Fuel demand is expected to fall sharply worldwide in the second quarter with aviation largely at a halt and road travel severely curtailed. Even after the travel bans are lifted, it will be take some time of full return to normal business for the airline and cruise industry. The same can be said about gasoline and diesel consumption, given the large scale quarantines currently in place in the US, India, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and with more European cities likely to follow suit in the weeks ahead.

Supply glut due to price war

Except virus-related demand concerns, oil prices are also sliding due to an imminent surge in supplies from Saudi Arabia and Russia as the two nations failed to agree on extending output cuts. In fact, the Saudis announced extreme measures in recent days in response to Russia’s unwillingness to participate in deeper supply cuts by drastically slashing “Official Selling Prices” (OSPs) to Asian refiners for April, thereby kicking off a three-way market share war between the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

Saudis and other Middle East producers choose to sell their barrels on a formula basis and as a discount or premium to global benchmarks rather than in the spot market. The Saudis slashed this discount to Asian refiners by $6/barrel from March levels, the biggest month-on-month change in history. The move was an abrupt about-face as the Saudis were ironically the ones leading the charge to implement deeper cuts of up to 1.5mb/d in the lead up to the meeting. In our view, the bold move is likely to lead to mutually assured destruction as all those involved will be feeling severe pain at current price levels.

Stimulus is not enough to shore up economic activity

Traders believe that demand is likely to continue to erode as emergency stimulus by global central banks will not be enough to shore up economic activity. Goldman Sachs predicted oil demand to fall by 10.5 million barrels per day in March and by as much as 18.7 million bpd in April. Such demand loss will increase the supply glut. Looking forward, we expect the oil market to stay under pressure until specific fiscal measures are not able to address the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic or until the OPEC+ members return to the negotiating table to correct the current oversupplied conditions. Only encouraging news is coming from China where spread of viruses checked and economic activity picking up. However, if the Saudi and Russian governments can come together and end this price war, it’s very likely that the market could bounce significantly.




Currency Table

News Flows of last week

25th FEB May, Juncker agree Brexit work must be done by March 21, says EU.
25th FEB Britain to scrap many EU tariffs on unfairly traded goods postBrexit.
26th FEB British PM offers lawmakers a choice, no-deal or delay.
26th FEB RBI to infuse Rs 12500 cr through OMO on February 28.
27th FEB RBI to pump in Rs 1 Lakh Crore cash to ease liquidity.
27th FEB Japan's factory output posts biggest fall in a year, outlook sags.
28th FEB RBI, Bank of Japan completes signing of $75 bn currency swap pact.

Market Stance

Indian rupee is likely to post weekly gain after easing from several weeks low in anticipation of large OMO announcement from RBI in upcoming days and on top of that debt market is eyeing for a rate cut in April MPC. Intriguingly RBI will try to monetize the debt to offset the impact of fiscal stimulus announced by FM for sub 2 trillion rupees. Earlier steep outflows in capital markets pushed rupee to fall below 76.20 which is more than 5 percent since early January.

Meanwhile Dollar Index dropped from its recent high after Fed's chair Jay Powell said - not running out of ammunition which hinted for further easing in monetary policy. Admittedly outbreak has led US jobless claims to more than 3 million and an expectation of big drop in output in second quarter may prompted rate setters to come out with more solutions.

The US has overtaken China in terms of positive cases. In the wake of such development, yen lifted higher from its recent low caused by dollar funding bid. Going forward in next week, vulnerabilities in forex market will continue with Chinese Manufacturing release which may calm relative to previous month as Chinese has started business activities on a thin layer.

Economic gauge for the next week

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (APR) contract closed at 75.1025 on 26-Mar-2020. The contract made its high of 76.2525 on 26-Mar-2020 and a low of 75.4650 on 23-Mar-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheUSD/INR is currently at 74.25

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.10. One can buy @ 75.50 for the target of 77.00 with the stop loss of 74.99.

EUR/INR (APR) contract closed 82.4725 on 26-Mar-2020. The contract made its high of 83.0400 on 26-Mar-2020 and a low of 81.0125 on 23-Mar-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe EUR/INR is currently at 81.73

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.70. One can buy at 82.50 for a target of 84 with the stop loss of 81.95.

GBP/INR (APR) contract closed at 89.8650 on 26-Mar-2020. The contract made its high of 90.3575 on 26-Mar-2020 and a low of 87.9000 on 23-Mar-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheGBP/INR is currently at 91.62

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.0. One can buy at 91.50 for a target of 93 with the stop loss of 89.50.

JPY/INR (MAR) contract closed at 68.3500 on 26-Mar-2020. The contract made its high of 68.8700 on 26-Mar-2020 and a low of 68.4300 on 23-Mar-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe JPY/INR is currently at 68.55

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.60. One can buy at 68.60 for a target of 70 with the stop loss of 68.00




Equitas Small Finance Bank postpones IPO, becomes 3rd victim of COVID-19

Equitas Small Finance Bank on March 18 said it will defer the launch of its initial public offering due to coronavirus-led weak market conditions. Fast food restaurant company Burger King and specialty chemicals manufacturer Rossari Biotech were two others who postponed their IPOs scheduled to open on March 18. Antony Waste Handling Cell chose to withdraw its IPO due to market conditions. Equitas Small Finance Bank had received approval from the capital market regulator SEBI to launch the IPO on March 3. The draft red herring prospectus for IPO was filed by the company in December last year. The issue was slated to consist of a fresh issue of Rs 550 crore and offer for sale of 8 crore shares by parent firm Equitas Holdings.

PE-backed operator of The Park hotels gets SEBI approval for IPO

Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd, which owns and operates hotel under the brand name ‘The Park’, has received regulatory nod to float an initial public offering (IPO). The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issued final observations to the company’s IPO plan on March 9, according to information published on the regulator’s website. The hotel company had filed its draft prospectus with SEBI on December 31. The issue size is pegged at Rs 1,000 crore, comprising a fresh sale of shares worth Rs 400 crore and a secondary sale of shares worth Rs 600 crore by the company’s promoter as well as private equity investor RECP IV Park Hotel Investors Ltd, which is housed under Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse. Promoter group companies Apeejay Surrendra Trust, Apeejay Pvt. Ltd and Apeejay House Pvt. Ltd have proposed to sell shares worth Rs 565 crore. RECP IV will sell shares worth roughly Rs 35 crore, according to the prospectus.

Goldman Sachs, PremjiInvest-backed MedPlus prepares for first IPO by a pharmacy chain

MedPlus, India’s second largest retail pharmacy chain, has invited merchant bankers for pitches for a proposed IPO in FY21. In November last year, MedPlus founder and CEO Madhukar Gangadi, a Wharton graduate, said the Hyderabad- headquartered chain was looking at an IPO to raise more than Rs 700 crore. In January 2018, MedPlus raised around $115 million in debt financing from Goldman Sachs to buy out its existing private equity investors, including US-based Mount Kellett Capital Management, TVS Capital Funds and Ajay Piramal’s India Venture Advisors. The three investors together held a 69 percent stake in MedPlus. Later, Azim Premji's investment arm PremjiInvest picked up a minority stake for around Rs 200 crore. MedPlus operates around 1,650 stores, of which about 100 are run through the franchisee model. The total number of retail pharmacies in India is estimated to be 850,000 and less than 5 percent, or around 6,000, come under organised pharmacy stores. Largely focused on south India until now, the 14-year-old MedPlus has expanded to West Bengal, Odisha and Maharashtra. The company claims on its website that it serves around 3.5 lakh customers a day and has more than 10,000 employees. The pharmacy chain also operates online store MedPlusMart, lab testing centres MedPlus Pathlabs and surgical equipment distribution business RiteCure.





* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.

* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.

* Email us at fd@smcindiaonline.com




L&T Mutual Fund launches 2 Nifty index funds

L&T Mutual Fund has launched two index funds-the Nifty 50 index and the Nifty Next 50 index funds. The new fund offer will open on Tuesday and closes on March 31. These open-ended index funds seek to replicate the performance of the Nifty 50 index and Nifty Next 50 index and operate mostly in the large cap space. L&T Investment Management manages Rs 71,000-crore assets as of December 2019 and has around 30 lakh folios.

MFs seek support from RBI as liquid funds see sharp rise in redemptions

Mutual funds have approached the Reserve Bank of India seeking liquidity support fearing sharp redemptions from bond funds — mainly liquid schemes — in the coming days as risk aversion due to the coronavirus fright has sparked the flight of money from these products to bank deposits. With several liquid funds posting losses following the spike in bond yields triggered by the selloff in the markets, several investors in this scheme category — mostly corporates who park their idle money there — have already begun pulling money out of these products. In a letter to the RBI, the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), the industry body, has urged the central bank to reinstate the liquidity window to mutual funds to help them tide over the current liquidity crisis as was done in 2008 and 2013. Amfi, which represents 41 asset managers handling investor money of about Rs 28.28 lakh crore, has asked the central bank to increase the Line of Credit to Rs 1 lakh crore through a repo window for corporate bond and commercial papers.

Mutual funds add 3 lakh investor accounts in February

The mutual fund industry has added over 3 lakh investor accounts in February, taking the total folio tally to 8.88 crore, which suggests investors' understanding about market risks associated with such schemes. However, the pace of growth in folio numbers dropped in February compared to the preceding two months. In January, the industry added 14 lakh folios and in December, the number was over 6 lakh. Mutual fund houses added just 2.6 lakh investor accounts in November. Folios are numbers designated to individual investor accounts. An investor can have multiple folios. According to data from Association of Mutual Funds in India, the number of folios with 44 fund houses rose to 8,88,36,162 at the end of February, from 8,85,33,153 in the end of January, registering a gain of 3.03 lakh folios. Number of folios under the equity and equity-linked saving schemes rose by 6.85 lakh to 6.18 crore in February-end as compared to 6.13 crore at the end of the preceding month. Notably, investment in equity mutual funds rose to an 11- month high of Rs 10,730 crore in February. However, the number of folio count in debt oriented schemes dropped by 6 lakh to 61.88 lakh at Februaryend from 67.88 lakh at January-end. Within the debt category, liquid funds continued to top the chart in terms of number of folios at nearly 18 lakh, followed by low duration fund at 9.91 lakh.


  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • L&TNifty 50 Index Fund
  • Open-Ended
  • Income
  • 24-Mar-2020
  • 31-Mar-2020
  • The scheme will adopt a passive investment strategy. The scheme will invest in stocks comprising the Nifty 50 index in the same proportion as in the index with the objective of achieving returns equivalent to the Total Returns Index of Nifty 50 index by minimizing the performance difference between the benchmark index and the scheme. The Total Returns Index is an index that reflects the returns on the index from index gain/ loss plus dividend payments by the constituent stocks.
  • Rs. 5000
  • Mr. Praveen Ayathan
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • L&TNifty Next 50 Index Fund
  • Open-Ended
  • Other Scheme - Index Funds
  • 24-Mar-2020
  • 31-Mar-2020
  • The scheme will adopt a passive investment strategy. The scheme will invest in stocks comprising the Nifty Next 50 index in the same proportion as in the index with the objective of achieving returns equivalent to the Total Returns Index of Nifty Next 50 index by minimizing the performance difference between the benchmark index and the scheme. The Total Returns Index is an index that reflects the returns on the index from index gain/ loss plus dividend payments by the constituent stocks.
  • Rs. 5000
  • Mr . Praveen Ayathan



Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)
TAX Fund
Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully




Customized Plans

Comprehensive Investment Solutions

Long-term Focus

Independent & Objective Advise

Financial Planning

Call Toll-Free 180011 0909

Visit www.smcindiaonline.com



11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005. Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365


Lotus Corporate Park, A Wing 401 / 402 , 4th Floor , Graham Firth Steel Compound, Off Western Express Highway, Jay Coach Signal, Goreagon (East) Mumbai - 400063

Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-67341697


18, Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4,5th Floor, Kolkata-700001 Tel.: 033 6612 7000/033 4058 7000, Fax: 033 6612 7004/033 4058 7004


10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market, C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat

Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03


Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road, Chetpet, Chennai - 600031.

Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111


315, 4th Floor Above CMR Exclusive, BhuvanaTower, S D Road, Secunderabad, Telangana-500003

Tel : 040-30031007/8/9


2404, 1 Lake Plaza Tower, Cluster T, Jumeriah Lake Towers, PO Box 117210, Dubai, UAE

Tel: 97145139780 Fax : 97145139781

Email ID : pankaj@smccomex.com


Printed and Published on behalf of

Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address

11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005

Website: www.smcindiaonline.com

Investor Grievance : igc@smcindiaonline.com

Printed at: S&S MARKETING

102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India) Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 43035014, Email: ss@sandsmarketing.in