• Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global markets witnessed volatile trade as investors awaited I an agreement on a U.S. aid package to mitigate the fallout from the coronavirus crisis amid better than expected unemployment data and also due to tensions between U.S. and China. However United States and China are set to have a dialogue on the phase 1 of their trade deal on August 15 via video conferencing. In another development, the US services industry activity gained momentum in July as new orders jumped to a record high, but hiring declined, supporting views that the labor market recovery was faltering amid resurgence in new COVID-19 infections across the country. Meanwhile, Oil prices slipped on worries that fuel demand growth will drop amid resurgence of coronavirus cases and as talks have stalled in the United States on a new stimulus deal.

Back at home, domestic markets also witnessed volatile movements with more stockspecific action as the earnings season progresses. In the recent meeting, the central bank outlined measures to ease stress in the banking sector while keeping interest rates unchanged. Moreover, RBI has said monetary transmission has improved considerably due to comfortable liquidity conditions and banks have passed on the benefit to borrowers by reducing lending rates by about 1.62 percent in the last nearly one-and-a-half years. The central bank announced measures including one-time restructuring of the loans to support non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), housing finance companies (HFCs) and the corporate debt market and relaxed norms on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for gold loans. State-wise Goods & Services Tax (GST) collections in July showed an 11.1 percent month-on-month dip in most states, except a few small ones, government data revealed. India’s services sector activity shrank for the fifth consecutive month in July even though the pace of contraction slowed compared to June, a clear indication of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns taking a toll on the services sector. Going forward, domestic earnings outcome and global news flows would be key monitorables.

On the commodity market front, the week gone by was another magical week for bullion counter; it made a history again. Interest in gold and silver has skyrocketed this year, as concerns that the Federal Reserve’s stimulus, aimed at weathering the pandemic could result in inflation. Historically low bond yields are also helping metals. As many commodities saw marginal upside which sent CRB above 148 levels. Dollar index was on back foot due to talk of another round of stimulus in US amid rapid rise in cases. Renewed deterioration of the global economy and more lockdowns to prevent Covid-19 from spreading is offering upside in gold and silver, nevertheless going long in precious metals at current levels are only for the bravest. One should wait for correction. Overall gold and silver should trade in a range of 52000-57000 and 68000- 79000 respectively. Crude is looking tricky in present context and it should trade in a range of 2900-3300 levels. If stimulus hope increases then base metals may trade firm.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.



  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left key interest rates unchanged and allowed banks to restructure certain loans as part of efforts to revive the economy.
  • According to the monthly IHS Markit, India’s manufacturing activity hit a speed bump in July after being on the slow road to improvement in the previous two months as regional lockdowns severely held back demand, leading to contraction in output. India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) PMI stood at 46 in July, down from 47.2 in June.
  • Lupin in alliance with Concord Biotech (Concord) announced that it has received approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (U.S. FDA) for Mycophenolate Mofetil Tablets USP, 500 mg, to market a generic version of CellCept® Tablets of Roche Palo Alto LLC (Roche).
  • Unichem Laboratories announced that it has received ANDA approval for its Tolterodine Tartrate Tablets, USP 1 mg and 2 mg from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to market a generic version of DETROL® (tolterodine tartrate) tablets of Pfizer Inc.
  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals announced that it will introduce a 400 mg version of oral antiviral FabiFlu®, for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in India. The higher strength will improve patient compliance and experience, by effectively reducing the number oftablets that patients require per day.
  • Bharti Airtel announced a multi-year, Strategic Collaboration Agreement (SCA) with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to deliver a comprehensive set of innovative cloud solutions to large enterprise and small and medium enterprise (SME) customers in India. Airtel serves over 2,500 large enterprises and more than a million emerging businesses and companies with an integrated product portfolio, including Airtel Cloud, a multi-cloud product and solutions business.
  • Tata Motors has launched a subscription model for electric version of its compact SUV Nexon, making it available to customers at a fixed monthly rental. Designed to make electric vehicles (EVs) more accessible to a rapidly growing base of future-conscious citizens,the company is making available its flagshipNexon at an all-inclusive fixed rental starting at Rs 41,900 per month.
Information Technology
  • Tech Mahindra started a coronavirus screening service 'Mhealthy', which can also detect COVID-19 antibodies. The firm said the platform is clinically tested and compliant with all government-mandated regulations, guidelines, and has been approved by the CentralDrugs Standard ControlOrganisation.
  • Jubilant FoodWorks announced its entry into the ready-to-cook segment with the launch of a new brand, 'ChefBoss'. The 'ChefBoss' range of sauces and pastes includes eight different products across two types of cuisines (Indian and Chinese) and will initially be exclusively available for consumers across e-commerce portals. The online sale of products will shortly start with Amazon (National), Flipkart Supermart (NCR, Mumbai and Bangalore) and Milkbasket (NCR).
  • US initial jobless claims tumbled to 1.186 million, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level of 1.435 million. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 1.415 million from the 1.434 million originally reported for the previous week.
  • US trade deficit narrowed to $50.7 billion in June from a revised $54.8 billion in May. Economists had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $50.1 billion from the $54.6 billion originally reported for the previous month.
  • US factory orders soared by 6.2 percent in June after skyrocketing by a revised 7.7 percent in May. Economists had expected factory orders to jump by 5.0 percent compared to the 8.0 percent spike originally reported for the previous month.
  • The average of household spending in Japan was down 1.2 percent on year in June, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said coming in at 273,699 yen. That beat forecasts for a decline of 7.5 percent following the 16.2 percent tumble in May.













Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

CMP: 20.10
Target Price: 24
Upside: 18%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 729.00/15.15
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 20190.52
  • EPS (Rs.) 2.86
  • P/E Ratio (times) 7.03
  • P/B Ratio (times) 0.64
  • Dividend Yield (%) 7.46
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • NHPC is the largest hydropower generating company in India with total power generation (standalone) of around 26.12 billionunits (BUs) during FY20 (FY19:24.41BU) through its 22 operating power stations (including one wind power plant and one solar power plant)located across different parts of the country.
  • The company plays an important role in implementing the Government of India (GoI currently holds 70.95% in NHPC) planned capacity addition in the hydel power sector. The strategic importance of NHPC is also evident from the longterm loans extended by the GoI at concessional rates for some hydropower projects of the company located in Jammu and Kashmir.
  • NHPC expects to incur a capex of Rs 5300 crore for FY21. A large part of this pertains to the Subansiri, Parbati-II, Dibang, and Teesta-IV projects. Construction works at the Subansiri project were impacted and suspended for 20 days due to the nationwide lockdown. It has maintained its commissioning timelines and expects completion by Fy24.
  • The tariff for each hydro power station of NHPC is determined by Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC). It ensures recovery of cost along with stipulated return on equity on achievement of normative availability and generation meeting the design energy of that particular plant. NHPC has low sales risk on account of execution of long term PPA for its hydro projects.
  • The tariff norms are notified for a block of five years and have been notified for the period FY2020-FY2024 on March 7, 2019. The tariff norms are largely in line with the norms for FY2014-FY2019 with return on equity at 15.50% (pre-tax), higher operation and maintenance expenses, lower escalation for O&M expenses, etc. The recovery of fixed cost is subject to normative plant availability for each plant, as notified by the CERC. NHPC has demonstrated satisfactory operational performance in the past.


  • Execution risk for under-construction projects
  • Regulatory risk due to cost-plus regime


The company is actively exploring opportunities for the development of pumped storage schemes in potential rich states. The diversity also minimises risks associated with geographical concentration. The company continued to remain comfortable by low overall gearing and stable debt coverage metrics. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.24 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a one year average P/BVx of 0.71x and FY21 BVPS of Rs.33.46.

P/E Chart

CMP: 463.45
Target Price: 541
Upside: 17%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 597.95/265.05
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 8901.43
  • EPS (Rs.) 16.93
  • P/E Ratio (times) 27.37
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.84
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.19
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • Godrej Agrovet is a diversified; Research & Development focused agri- Business Company. It holds leading market positions in the different businesses in which it operates - Animal Feed, Crop Protection, Oil Palm, Dairy and Poultry and Processed Foods.
  • The company operates in agriculture sector and all of its' businesses are part of essential commodities. The firm resumed operations in April 2020 after obtaining necessary approvals from local authorities and according to the management of the company, it is well-equipped to manage the current situation based on the strong business continuity plan put in place. The demands for its products remains firm and are relentlessly working towards providing uninterrupted supply of all essential products (feed, agrochemicals, dairy products, and poultry and processed food products) for animal husbandry, crop protection and household consumption.
  • During the Q1FY21, performance in Astec, oil palm plantation and aqua feed was strong which supported the quarterly performance. Forthe full year FY20, while animal feed and Astec posted strong growth compared to previous year but food businesses and oil palmplantation were impacted by low output prices and high costs. Performance of the crop protection in the standalone business was also modest during the year.
  • During Q1FY21, Consolidated total income was Rs.1,562 crore which was lower than previous year by 8.8%. However, consolidated profit before tax was Rs.134 crore, representing a healthy year-on-year growth of 18.7%. In crop protection, consolidated revenue and segment results, grew by 11.9% and 10.0%, due to the robust performance of subsidiary Astec LifeSciences. Sequential recovery in prices and demand of poultry products, coupled with favourable raw material prices led to sharp recovery in the subsidiary Godrej Tyson Foods Ltd.
  • Its frozen food products under the Yummiez brand received excellent customerresponse in the quarter. As a result, the subsidiary reported revenue and EBITDAgrowth of 21.8% and 237.4%,respectively.


  • Slowdown in demand
  • Fluctuations in commodity prices


According to the management of the company, the macroeconomic indicators for the agriculture sector are positive with timely and above normal south-west monsoon, high water reservoir levels and favourable commodity prices. In addition, multiple measures announced in the Government’s stimulus package would encourage private sector participation in the agriculture sector and may help to increase income. In the near-tomedium term, agricultural value chain will offer immense business opportunities for growth and expansion and Godrej Agrovet, with its presence across multiple segments in agriculture and strong balance sheet, is well placed to capture these opportunities. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.541 in 8 to 10 months time frame on an expected average P/BVx of 5x and FY21 BVPS of Rs.108.18.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months



Beat the street - Technical Analysis

Sun TV Network Limited (SUNTV)

The stock closed at Rs 394.35 on 07th August 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 259.55 on 03rd April 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 551.30 on 01st November, 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 420.49

After registering yearly low of 260 levels, the stock started moving higher and formed a “Continuation Triangle” on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock tried to given the breakout of pattern but couldn’t hold the high levels and managed to close on verge of breakout along with high volumes, so buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 385-390 levels for the upside target of 440-450 levels with SL below 370.

Suprajit Engineering Limited (SUPRAJIT)

The stock closed at Rs 164.80 on 07th August 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 99.25 on 25th March, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 219 on 14th January, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 157.45

Short term and medium term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, it has formed a “Cup and Handle” pattern on daily charts and has given the breakout of same, close above the breakout levels so more upside is expected from current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 162-164 levels for the upside target of 180-185 levels with SL below 152.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




After witnessing a pull back towards 11000 levels, Nifty witnessed a sharp recovery from lower levels and once again reclaimed 11200 levels last week on the back of sharp short covering. Rally was supported by heavyweights like HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries along with metal counter. From derivative front, short covering was witnessed by call writers at 11000 strike while put writers added nearly hefty open interest at the same strike. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 20.23% while that for put options closed at 22.79%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 23.15% and is expected to remain sideways. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.56 indicating more put writing than call. From technical front still Nifty is trading well above its short and long term moving averages while bank nifty would face strong hurdle at 21950 to 22000 zone. In coming sessions, we believe that volatility will continue to grip the markets and bias would remain bullish as far Nifty is trading above 11000 levels. On higher side, a break above 11250 levels would once again add follow up buying into the index; so any dip into the prices should consider as buying opportunity.












Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 6th August 2020

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering





Turmeric futures (Sept) is expected to consolidate in the range of 5750-6050 levels and the upside may remain capped. In the present scenario, the demand is not encouraging enough due to subdued quality of arrivals coming on to the spot markets. As a result, the sales have been decreased to 60 per cent as only medium quality turmeric is arriving for sale. Further, the traders have only local demand, and are waiting for the upcountry demand. Most of the farmers are busy in their agricultural operations in Kalingarayan Arecanut area due to release of water in the canal. Secondly, the dullness in trade is due to rising cases of coronavirus, which is why most of the bookings are taking place at the cold stores and warehouses. The market in Nizamabad, Telangana, is shut due to rising cases of COVID-19. Some export demand, though, has been noticed in the other mandis. Jeera futures (Sept) is likely to hover sideways in the range of 13800-14200. In days to come, the correction may get limited as the market participants are expecting demand to rise after mid-August. The arrivals are also on a lower side due to due to incessant rainfall in the major producing regions. On the spot, rough jeera quoted at Rs 1945-2220 and NCDEX variety was quoted at Rs 2320-2505 per 20 Kgs. Best quality was quoted at Rs 2520-2620 per 20 Kgs. Dhaniya futures (Sept) will probably witness another round of consolidation in the range of 6400-6700. The major that is lending support to the counter is the increase in demand against decline in arrivals the peak season has come to an end.


Bullion counter scaled a new all-time high and was set for its ninth straight weekly gain, as demand was boosted by a softer dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields and worries over the global economic fallout from rising COVID-19 cases. The dollar index held close to a more than two-year low and was heading for its seventh consecutive weekly decline. To note, weaker greenback makes gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. There are mixed signals that the economy is recovering and some of the signs of recovery are relatively superficial as they show aggregate figures and not how medium and small enterprises continue to suffer. Gold has rallied more than 35% this year as it is considered an asset that should hold its value while the pandemic and money printing by central banks erode the value of others. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress has yet to conclude negotiations on another COVID-19 aid package even as President Donald Trump said he would take executive action if the standstill persists. The last package expired on July 31 and without some kind of help the U.S. economic recovery could be put in doubt, leading to further drops in interest rates. Based on technical charts, both are now getting short-term overbought, and are due for downside corrections in the uptrends, with the higher volatility and bigger daily price gains seen at present, there will also be bigger downside corrections when it come. Gold is likely to hover around $2,020-2,080 an ounce in the near term, with key focus on whether there is any progress on COVID-19 vaccines. This week, gold may trade in the range of 52800-58700 levels and Silver may trade in the range of 69200-83200 levels.


Soybean futures (Sept) is expected to show a bullish movement towards 3930- 4000, taking support near 3700 levels. It is being estimated that India's soybean output is likely to be impacted due to sporadic virus spread in parts of Madhya Pradesh and pest attacks on standing crops in Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Apart from that, there is a requirement of average to heavy rainfall in some areas under soybean cultivation. Mustard futures is trading almost close to is life time high of 5192 witnessed in the year 2015. The outlook is still bullish and every correction can be seen as a buying opportunity as there is a huge disequilibrium between demand-supply. In days to come, we may see a new all time high near 5300-5400 levels. The recent data from the Mustard Oil Producers Association of India shows that the crushing of mustard seeds by mills in the country surged 52.4% on year to 800,000 tn in July. The crushing in July was, however, largely unchanged from June. While mustard oil is found to be very useful in supporting the immune system, its consumption has multiplied since the outbreak of Covid-19 in India. The crush margin is also in the positive zone of Rs.14 per quintal. A caution is being advised in soy oil (Sept) and CPO (Aug) as both the counters are in overbought zone & facing resistance near 895 & 760 respectively. The sentiments are turning pessimistic due to weakness in CBOT oilseed complex as the crop condition of soybean in U.S is improving, hence not being able to sustain above the 200 days daily moving average and soy oil is also pulling back facing resistance near 32 cents per lb.


Crude Oil prices slipped from higher levels on worries that fuel demand growth will drop amid resurgence of coronavirus cases and as talks have stalled in the United States on a new stimulus deal. However, WTI and Brent are both set for weekly gains of at least 4%, the most for the two benchmark contracts since the week ending. Rising cases remain the key uncertainty for fuel demand growth and in turn oil prices. The lack of progress in the talks between the White House and Democrats over the next coronavirus stimulus package, with Democrats saying President Donald Trump may have to issue executive orders if he does not want to negotiate further. The virus relief package remains the last hope to boost (fuel) demand, with the U.S. driving season coming to an end soon. Global consumption has collapsed due to lockdowns to contain the pandemic, as gasoline demand coming in close to 7% year-on-year lower through Q3 implying a continued slowdown of the recovery. This week we may witness correction in crude oil where it may take support near 2680 levels and face resistance near 3380 levels. U.S. natural gas futures rose to their highest since December ahead of a report expected to show a smaller-than-usual weekly storage build, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts the weather will remain hot through late August. U.S. LNG exports are on track to rise for the first time in six months as the amount of pipeline gas flowing to the plants rose to 3.9 bcfd in August from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July when buyers canceled dozens of cargoes. This week Natural gas may trade in wider range of 140-178.


Cotton futures (Aug) is expected to hold on to the support near 16150 levels, while the upside may get extended towards 16500-16700 levels. The counter is taking positive cues from the slipping acreage this season as well as from the international market. It is reported that cotton acreage has slipped 9% in Gujarat amid weak rains. Also, there are chances of fresh arrivals of swarms of locusts in major producing areas of Rajasthan. The supply side can take a hit as the farmers have limited supplies and the new crop is unlikely to come to markets before November. On the international market, ICE cotton futures (Dec) is trading near its six-months high on the back of robust exports of U.S. cotton to China. The Aug. 15 meeting scheduled between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the principal negotiators for the two countries, is also encouraging markets. Chana futures (Sept) is showing an uptrend and this shall extend till 4300- 4350, taking support near 4150. On the spot, the current price level is attractive for miller and even the consumption is likely to increase in coming days due to commencement of festive period until Diwali. Guar complex are looking bullish as sowing areas have reduced in Rajasthan due to lack of sufficient rains. Taking a closer look, as per the latest statistics Gujarat as well as east Rajasthan have received 49% lesser rains, while west Rajasthan by 32%. Secondly, there are no significant arrival of guar seed as while food grade guar gum is in demand from US and Europe. The September contracts of both the counters are likely to rise towards 4300 & 7400 respectively.


Base metal may trade in range while profit booking at higher level cannot be denied. Copper can move towards 530 by taking support near 495 due to weaker greenback, recovery in demand in china and concerns over supply disruption. Copper stocks in LME registered warehouses at 122,450 tonnes are at their lowest since the middle of January and down more than 50% since May. Researchers Antaike said China would import 3.5 million tonnes of copper this year, down from 3.55 million tonnes in 2019. Meanwhile Orders for Germanmade goods rose sharply in June to 27.9% compared to the previous month, the latest sign that Europe’s largest economy is starting to shrug off the effects of months of lockdown though orders were still 11.3% below the prepandemic level of February, according to Statistics Office data. Zinc may move towards 200 and taking support near 185 while Lead can move towards 160 while taking support near 145. Supply of zinc has been impacted by mining curbs in Peru. Nickel may test to 1150 by taking support near 1060 on supply concern due to heavy rains in the Philippines that have disrupted shipments. Philippines also reimposed a lockdown in parts of the country. China produced 14,600 mt of refined nickel in July, down 3.05% or 460 mt from June, but up 15.73% from a year earlier. Aluminum may trade in the range of 142-150 with firm bias. Antaike sees China’s aluminium consumption falling 1.7% to 36 million tonnes in 2020, versus a previous estimate of 36.6 million tonnes. Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's move on Thursday to reimpose 10% tariffs on some Canadian aluminum products.





CRUDE OIL MCX (AUG) contract closed at Rs. 3152.00 on 06th Aug’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 3263.00 on 05th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 2520 on 19th May’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 3094.16. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.826.

One can sell near Rs. 3140 for a target of Rs. 2680 with the stop loss of Rs. 3380.

NICKEL MCX (AUG) contract closed at Rs. 1101.90 on 06th Aug’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 1117 on 06th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 963.60 on 26th Jun’2020. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1050.05. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 70.199.

One can buy near Rs. 1075 for a target of Rs. 1140 with the stop loss of Rs. 1045.

SOYBEAN NCDEX (SEP) contract was closed at Rs. 3884.00 on 06th Aug’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 3906.00 on 07th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 3660.00 on 19th Jun’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 3789.37. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 67.786.

One can buy near Rs. 3830 for a target of Rs. 4050 with the stop loss of Rs 3720.




  • RBI allowed banks to give loans up to 90% of the value of such items pledged by borrowers.At present, loans sanctioned by banks against pledge of gold ornaments and jewellery is up to 75% of the value of such items.
  • Within months of launching Agridex and a monsoon index, NCDEX is exploring the introduction of an edible oil index.
  • Gold-backed ETFs and similar products (gold ETFs) recorded their eighth consecutive month of positive flows, adding 166 tonnes (t) in July – equivalent to US$9.7bn or 4.0% of assets under management (AUM). – World Gold Council.
  • India's gold imports in July fell 24% around 30 tonnes of gold in July, down from 39.66 tonnes a year ago. In value terms, July imports edged up to $1.78 billion from $1.71 billion a year ago.
  • There are signs of increasing the area under guar seed, the largest cash crop in Rajasthan till 29 July, 15.54 lakh hectare has been sown in the state whereas in the same period last year, 13.70 lakh hectare was sown. As of now, only 51.8% of Guar has been sown.
  • In 2020, July rainfall ends with 10% deficiency, driest in 5 yrs. June 1- Aug 3 rains now 2% below normal. IMD Weather estimates August , September to be at 104% of rainfall.
  • China July Trade balance 62.33 Billion USD, Prev.46.42 Billion USD. Exports were up +7.2% YoY in USD Term. Imports declined by -1.4% YoY in USD Term.


The week gone by was another magical week for bullion counter; history was made again. As many commodities saw marginal upside, it sent CRB above 148 levels. Dollar index was on back foot due to talk of another round of stimulus in US amid rapid rise in cases. Gold made a historic high of Rs 56191 and $2077.85 in MCX and COMEX respectively. Interest in gold and silver has skyrocketed this year, as concerns that the Federal Reserve’s stimulus, aimed at weathering the pandemic could result in inflation, which precious metals are often believed to provide a hedge against. Historically low bond yields are also helping metals. ETFs in silver have benefitted tremendously from the whopping upside moves. Interest in silver-backed exchange traded funds had advanced to a record 8,445 tonnes this year, added almost twice the prior record in 2009. Oil was steady in New York near a five-month high as U.S. crude stockpiles fell more than expected, offsetting rising fuel inventories and softer demand. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 7.37 million barrels for a second weekly decline through July 31, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Natural gas saw massive jump in the prices on renewed buying and closed above 160 levels in MCX. It rose on the news of hot weather. Natural gas plunged to a 25-year low in June, as demand for natural gas plunged on the milder temperature and the world remained awash with the fuel. Despite the increasing number of COVID 19, base metals performed well on hope of renewed hope of stimulus. Copper prices rose as expectations of stronger economic growth and demand due to central bank and government stimulus, a lower dollar and sliding stocks boosted sentiment. The nickel market is also being bolstered by expectations of growing longer-term demand from battery manufacturers. In the battery sector, nickel is a key component in lithium-ion, nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA) and nickel-cobaltmanganese (NCM) batteries, offering greater energy density and increased storage capacity.

In spices, turmeric moved up taking positive cues from the spot markets. The price of the root turmeric was improved. Jeera was sideways. In the present scenario, the commodity is taking negative cues from the rise in warehouse stock and weak demand from bulk buyers. Coriander was improved in spot market. The spot prices are steady due to improvement in demand from the domestic stockists and fall in arrivals in spot markets.With no stock left with farmers and new season crop arrivals 6-8 months away, mustard traded firm. Cotton has seen bottom formation. Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) said the prices of the fibre crop have bottomed out and expects the demand from the spinning mills to pick up gradually on easing of lockdown. CCI is pushing for cotton exports to major consuming countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam through the government channel. Guar saw good upside.







Spot Prices (% Change)



iCOMDEX Bullion Index

The Multi Commodity Exchange of India is launching the iCOMDEX Bullion Index futures, India's first tradeable Bullion Futures Index which tracks the real-time performance of flagship near month MCX Gold (1 Kg) & Silver (30 Kg) futures contracts, on Aug 14, according to exchange. The Securities and Exchange Board of India had granted approval for the bourse to launch trading in 'iCOMDEX' bullion and base metal indices. The bullion index has gold and silver as its constituents, while the base metals index comprises copper, aluminium, lead, nickel and zinc. The regulator has allowed the exchange to start trading for futures contracts expiring in August, September and October on the bullion index.

MCX iCOMDEX Bullion Index is one of the sectoral indices in the MCX iCOMDEX family, and the index is based on the liquid gold and silver futures contracts traded on MCX. The Index is an efficienttoolforinvestors looking to manage theirinvestments in bullion and, being an excess returns index, it is ideal for benchmarking and trading. Gold and silver will have weight of 70.52% and 29.48%, respectively, on the bullion index.

MCX COMDEX is a significant barometer for the performance of commodities market and would be an ideal investment tool in commodities market over a period of time. This is the maiden flagship real-time Composite Commodity Index in India based on commodity futures prices of an exchange launched in June 2005. In December, the MCX started the live-streaming of 'iCOMDEX' on its electronic platform. The exchange also has separate indices for crude oil, gold, silver, and copper.

The regulator has approved the launch of October, November and December contracts on the base metal index. However, the launch date has not been finalised yet, the official said.

Trading Unit (1 Lot) Rs. 50 * MCX iCOMDEX Bullion Index (Approx. Rs. 7 lakh contract value @ Index value of ~ 14,000.00)
Tick Size 1
Maximum Order Size 80 Lots
Initial Margin Minimum 5 % or based on SPAN whichever is higher
Final Settlement Cash settled
Final Settlement Price Shall be based on Volume Weightage Average Price of the constituents of the underlying Index between 4:00 p.m. and 5:00p.m.on the expiry day of the Index futures contract.
Index Governance International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) standards
Maximum Allowable Open Position For individual clients: 1,000 lots or 5% of market wide open position, whichever is higher for all MCX iCOMDEX Bullion index futures contracts combined together. For a member collectively for all clients: 10,000 lots or 15% of market wide open position, whichever is higher for all MCX iCOMDEX Bullion index futures contracts combined together.




Currency Table

Market Stance

Indian rupee seems to be losing its steam as RBI decided to keep the rates unchanged while maintaining dovish outlook. The latest domestic economic indicators do suggest that further loose monetary policy is required which will keep rupee to move downward in coming weeks. From the flows side, dollar rising through bond issuances by Indian corporate somehow managed the downside in rupee this week. Euro somehow facing the overbought sentiment around the latest peak. However data pointer of retail sales reached their pre-crisis level in June and July’s final PMIs confirmed that the broader recovery continued at the start of Q3. On top of it position structure in euro still keeps the bullish momentum. Sterling rose to a five-month high against the dollar after the Bank of England appeared cool on the prospect of introducing negative interest rates. However there are lots of hurdles to hold the latest gains especially when it drove by month-end flows. It is expected that movement in pound will remain volatile ahead of important economic data from UK especially retail sales for July.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (AUG) contract closed at 75.1200 on 06-Aug-2020. The contract made its high of 75.4900 on 03-Aug-2020 and a low of 74.8525 on 05-Aug-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheUSD/INR is currently at 75.25.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.13. One can sell at 75.25 for the target of 74.50 with the stop loss of 75.75.

GBP/INR (AUG) contract closed at 98.9175 on 06-Aug-2020. The contract made its high of 98.9975 on 06-Aug-2020 and a low of 97.9825 on 04-Aug-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheGBP/INR is currently at 96.66.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.46. One can buy at 98.40 for a target of 99.50 with the stop loss of 97.90.

News Flows of last week

03rd AUG Japan first-quarter GDP unchanged at 2.2% annualised contraction after 2nd revision
03rd AUG U.S. manufacturing activity near 1-1/2-year high, factory job losses persist
03rd AUG Fed policymakers call for fiscal support to save U.S. economy
04th AUG Germany's car industry shows initial signs of recovery - Ifo
04th AUG IMF says coronavirus may shrink global imbalances further in 2020
05th AUG U.S. services sector activity hits 16-month high in July
06th AUG U.S. weekly jobless claims fall, labour market struggling as COVID19 epidemic spreads
06th AUG RBI holds rates on inflation risk, but more easing seen

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (AUG) contract closed at 88.9325 on 06-Aug-2020. The contract made its high of 89.2850 on 06-Aug-2020 and a low of 88.2800 on 03-Aug-2020 (Weekly Basis).The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe EUR/INR is currently at 87.39.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 75.06. One can buy at 88.80 for a target of 89.70 with the stop loss of 88.30.

JPY/INR (AUG) contract closed at 71.1875 on 06-Aug-2020. The contract made its high of 71.3100 on 03-Aug-2020 and a low of 70.8225 on 05-Aug-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe JPY/INR is currently at 70.86.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.10. One can buy at 71.00 for a target of 71.80 with the stop loss of 70.50.










Equity AUM rises 21% to Rs 7 lakh crore on rebound in markets, SIP inflow

The asset base of equity mutual funds surged 21 per cent to over Rs 7 lakh crore during the June 2020 quarter, primarily on account of rebound in markets and backed by strong SIP inflows, a Morningstar India report said on Thursday. However, inflows during the quarter declined sharply to Rs 11,710 crore compared to Rs 30,703 crore in the January-March 2020 period, primarily due to increased redemptions in June as investors booked profits. Of Rs 11,710 crore investment in the June 2020 quarter, the schemes attracted Rs 6,213 crore in April, Rs 5,256 crore in May and Rs 240.55 crore in June, which was the lowest investment level in four years. According to Morningstar, equity AUM rose as a result of rebound in markets, backed by strong monthly SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) flows, which averaged Rs 8,139 crore in the second quarter of the calendar year 2020. The overall industry's assets under management (AUM) rose 14.5 per cent to Rs 25.49 lakh crore in the quarter ended June from Rs 22.26 lakh crore at the end of March quarter. The 45-player mutual fund industry witnessed over Rs 1.24 lakh crore inflow across the schemes in the June quarter. Of the total inflow, banking and PSU funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 20,912 crore, while the same for corporate bond funds was Rs 18,738 crore as the flight to safer assets continued. In addition, investors put in Rs 20,930 crore in arbitrage funds.

Nippon India Mutual Fund launches multi-asset fund

Nippon Life India Asset Management Limited has announced the launch of Nippon India Multi-Asset Fund. The New Fund Offer (NFO) opens for subscription on August 7 and closes on August 21. The minimum investment required is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The fund will be managed by Manish Gunwani, CIO - Equity Investments along with Ashutosh Bhargava, Fund Manager & Head Equity Research, Kinjal Desai, Fund Manager - Overseas; Amit Tripathi CIO - Fixed Income and Vikram Dhawan Head – Commodities. According to a press release shared by the fund house, the investment objective of Nippon India Multi Asset Fund is to seek long term capital growth by investing in equity and equity related securities, debt & money market instruments and Exchange Traded Commodity Derivatives and Gold ETF as permitted by SEBI from time to time. The fund will invest 50% of its assets in Indian equities, 20% in international equities, 15% in commodities and the remaining in Debt & Money Market Instruments.




Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)





Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 06/08/2020
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 6%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.