• Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock market remained cautious as rising coronavirus I cases in America and Europe and a delay in the second US stimulus package have left investors wary. The US economy grew at a record pace in the third quarter—increasing 7.4% over the prior quarter and at a 33.1% annual rate—recovering about two-thirds of the ground it lost earlier in the coronavirus pandemic. To note, hit hard by the second coronavirus wave, many European nations have reinforced lockdown. The European Central Bank committed on Thursday to take new action in December to contain the growing fallout from a second wave of coronavirus infections, likely in the form of more bond purchases or cheap credit for banks. The US presidential election is at the beginning of November and its outcome will have a bearing on global markets, including India. Afavorable outcome of the US presidential elections and passage of the second US stimulus bill will be positive for the global markets and could push markets to all-time highs.

Back at home, domestic markets witnessed high volatility due to rollover movement on October F&O expiry day amid negative global cues. Actually, weak global cues stemming from spiking covid-19 cases worldwide and uncertainty over the US presidential election eclipsed optimism from domestic earnings reports. However, India continues to maintain the declining trend of active cases with a surge in the number of recovered cases. Meanwhile, COVID-19 has severely impacted bank credit flow to multiple sectors and this is reflected in the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on sector-wise credit growth. Another data showed that contracting for the seventh consecutive month, the output of eight core infrastructure sectors dropped by 0.8 percent in September, mainly due to decline in production of crude oil, natural gas, refinery products and cement. The production of eight core sectors had contracted 5.1 percent in September 2019. The government's fiscal deficit rose to Rs 9.14 lakh crore, about 114.8 percent of the annual budget estimate, during the first six months of the current financial year, mainly on account of poor revenue realisation. Going forward, market will continue to track the global as well as domestic factors for its direction. Stock specific movement will continue to remain in the market as we are in the result session.

On the commodity market front, before US elections dollar index saw heavy inflow and thus it recovered around 93.8. With upside in dollar index, commodities noticed some pressure in the prices. Gold headed for a third monthly drop, the longest run since 2019, as investors awaited next week’s presidential election amid the threat of rising coronavirus cases and lack of agreement on a U.S. stimulus plan. Silver may remain directionless along with gold and industrial metals as more clarity is awaited on US stimulus as well as economic impact of virus related restrictions. Gold and silver may trade in a range of 49500-52200 and 58000-63000 respectively. Crude may see some rebound on fresh lower levels buying though upside should be capped near 2900. Base metals should trade in a range now. Apart from US elections there are so many triggers in the market viz Manufacturing PMI of China, Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Fed Interest Rate Decision of US, RBA Interest Rate Decision, Eurogroup Video Conference and BoE Interest Rate Decision.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.



  • India’s eight infrastructure sectors drifted closer to expansionary territory in September as contraction narrowed to 0.8 per cent. The production of eight core sectors had contracted 5.1% in September 2019. The decline in output during the month under review was the lowest since March.
Information Technology
  • Wipro announced its intention to expand its IBM Hybrid Cloud Practice. Supported by technical experts from both organizations, the practice is expected to help Wipro customers modernize their digital operations across hybrid cloud environments by leveraging IBM Cloud Paks, containerized software running on Red Hat OpenShift.
  • Multi-Commodity Exchange of India and Indian Energy Exchange have entered into a licensing agreementto launch Electricity derivatives linked to IEX spot electricity prices on MCX trading platform, subject to necessary approvals from the government of India and the concerned regulators. This shall lay the groundwork for avibrant electricity derivatives market in the country.
  • Zydus Cadila has received tentative approval from the USFDA to market Dapagliflozin Tablets, 5 mg and 10 mg (US RLD: Farxiga® Tablets). It has also received tentative approval from the USFDAto market Linagliptin Tablets, 5 mg (US RLD: Tradjenta® Tablets).
  • Bajaj Auto is witnessing a strong revival in various export markets, including Africa and Latin America, as they were not hit as hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns as the domestic market
  • Hero MotoCorp and Harley-Davidson announced a wide ranging partnership for the Indian market, days after the US cult bike manufacturer announced its exit from the country. As part of the deal, Hero MotoCorp will develop and sell a range of premium motorcycles under the Harley-Davidson brand name in the country. Besides, it will take care of service and parts requirements for the Harley bikes.
  • Procter & Gamble India will invest Rs.400 crore to partnerlocal manufacturers and suppliers in line with the government's vision of a self-reliant India.
  • Bharti Airtel has entered the rapidly-growing cloud communications market with the launch of business-centric Airtel IQ'. A cloud-based omni-channel communications platform, Airtel IQ, aims to enable brands to deepen engagement with customers through timely and secure communication, a company statement said, terming the move as a "game changer" for the fastevolving Indian enterprise communication segment.
  • Pidilite Industries is acquiring complete interest in US-based Huntsman Group's Indian subsidiary Huntsman Advanced Materials Solutions Private Limited (HAMSPL) for a consideration of about Rs 2,100 crore to consolidate its leadership position in the domestic adhesive market.
  • US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percentin the third quarter of 2020.In the second quarter,realGDP decreased 31.4 percent. Economists had expectedGDPto soar by 31.0 percent.
  • US initial jobless claims dropped to 751,000, a decrease of 40,000 from the previousweek's revised level of 791,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 775,000 from the 787,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US consumer confidence index edged down to 100.9 in October after jumping to a revised 101.3 in September. The pullback surprised economists, who had expected the index to inch up to 102.0 from the 101.8 originally reported for the previous month.
  • European Central Bank left its key interest rates and massive stimulus unchanged citing a highly uncertain outlook amid a resurgence in the Covid19 pandemic, and hinted at a move in December when the latest set of macroeconomic projections will be available.
  • Japan's consumer confidence improved to the highest level in eight months in October On a seasonally adjusted basis, the consumer confidence index increased to 33.6 in October from 32.7 in September.













Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

CMP: 1318.25
Target Price: 1562
Upside: 19%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1605.45/675.80
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 21711.80
  • EPS (Rs.) 52.82
  • P/E Ratio (times) 24.96
  • P/B Ratio (times) 5.88
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.99
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • Mindtree is a global technology solutions and consulting Services Company, with a leading edge in digital technologies.Born with a mission of helping businesses and societies flourish, Mindtree has established itself as a globally renowned and trusted company, crossing revenues of USD 1 billion in 20 years. Now a part of Larsen & Toubro– an over USD 21 billion conglomerate, Mindtree isp oised for pursuing possibilities of further growth and expansion.
  • During September quarter, the share of revenue from communications, media & technology segment dropped to 49.8 per cent of the total revenue from 51 per cent in the June quarter, while those from BFSI, retail CPG and manufacturing, and travel and hospitality segments edged higher. But the management of the company is confident and it is seeing increasing demand in other business segments. Consequently it expects revenues to recover in the coming quarter (Q3 FY21).
  • It has reported 19% Sequential growth in consolidated net profit and revenue increased 0.9% in Q2 September 2020 (Q2FY21) over Q1 June 2020 (Q1FY21). Consolidated profit before tax (PBT) stood at Rs 344.70 crore in Q2FY21, rising 19% from Rs 289.80 crore in Q1FY21. . EBITDA margin stood at 19.6% during Q2FY21 over 18.2% in Q1FY21.
  • According to the management, its relentless focus and client-first approach have resulted in robust Q2FY20 performance on multiple dimensions and delivering a broad-based growth with revenue of $261M and EBITDA of 19.6% for the quarter. Its approach towards Redefining Possibilities in the new normal for businesses enabled the company to deliver a balanced H1 performance.
  • There are currently 283 active clients as of 30 September 2020. Eight new clients have been added during the September quarter. The company had 21,827 employees as of 30 September 2020. Trailing 12 months attrition rate stood at 13.8% in September 2020 as against 16.5% in the same period last year.
  • According to the management, the company is confident regarding revenue growth momentum in Q3FY21 driven by deal pipeline which is healthy and there has been a significant portion of annuity deals in TCV which will further continue. While spends are robust in the CPG segment (consumer packaged goods) and technology vertical, expects TTH (Travel, transportation and hospitality) vertical will take some time to recover.


  • Currency Fluctuation
  • Highly Competitive


Considering the strength and prowess of Mindtree in digital technologies, this augurs well, at the very fundamental level, for its continued success amidst all uncertainties and disruptions. The company aims to continue to balance its technology strategy with humancentric approach, both at the market place as well as the workplace, for that it has been a huge enabler for consistent growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1562 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/Ex of 22.99x and FY22 EPS of Rs.67.95

P/E Chart

CMP: 990.30
Target Price: 1028
Upside: 13%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1180.00/571.70
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 13553.10
  • EPS (Rs.) 51.07
  • P/E Ratio (times) 17.80
  • P/B Ratio (times) 3.22
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.77
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • Polycab India is one of the largest manufacturers of various types of cables and wires. The Company is also in the business of Engineering, Procurement and Construction projects, Manufacturing and trading of Electrical Wiring Accessories, Electrical Appliances and Agro Pipe and pumps.
  • About 14 new products and over 40 new SKUs were launched in past six months. Relatively stable price environment in Lighting business aided value growth. Pumps sales more than doubled on YoY basis. Switchgears saw a revival however switches remained muted due to operational issues.
  • The company has achieved healthy underlying performance with improved profitability in FY20. It has maintained its dominant position in Wires and Cables and continues to expand its presence in the ‘Electricals' ecosystem. The year was marked with strong business momentum despite significant headwinds however the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and its severe economic implications partly tapered growth. The company has been focusing on deleveraging and plans to repay in FY21 and FY22.
  • The company is tightening its belts with cost cutting initiatives, to improve profitability without bargaining on long term brand development and innovation initiatives. The company remains focused on augmenting brand positioning in the Electricals space and creating long term shareholder value.
  • According to the management, the company is refining its strategy to capture emerging trends and succeed in the transforming world. Government reforms and initiatives will certainly help the broader economy and people. The company being a true example of made in India brand will continue to contribute to nation's growth and governments vision to make India a self-reliant economy.
  • With strong recovery in the business during Q2FY21 post easing of lockdown restrictions; it reported 14% increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 221.6 crore on 6% decline in revenue to Rs 2,113.7 crore in Q2 FY21 over Q2 FY20. The management has indicated at continuous demand improvement QoQ post opening up of the economy.


  • Intense Competition
  • Low Capex Execution Risks


The company would be able to gain market share in the FMEG segment as it keeps on investing into increasing reach, brand visibility and into new products. Recently, it has reported stronger than expected numbers led by healthy revival in domestic B2C segment and exports. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1028 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a one year average P/E of 18.5x and FY22 EPS of Rs.55.56.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months



Beat the street - Technical Analysis

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited (CHOLAFIN)

The stock closed at Rs 273.25 on 30th October 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 117.40 on 07th April 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 349 on 06th February, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 229.95

After registering yearly low of 117 levels, stock started moving higher, trading in higher highs and higher lows sort of “Rising Wedge” on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Last few weeks, stock has been consolidated in range of 220- 260 levels with positive bias and has given the breakout of consolidation along with high volumes so further upside is expected for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 268-270 levels for the upside target of 295-300 levels with SL below 255.

HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited (HDFCLIFE)

The stock closed at Rs 589.75 on 30th October, 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 340 on 23rd March, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 647.60 on 28th July, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 558.88

Short term, Medium term and long term bias are positive for the stock as it is trading in uptrend since March, 2020. Apart from this, it is forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on weekly charts, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, stock has given the pattern breakout with good volumes which indicates buying is aggressive for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 580-584 levels for the upside target of 640-650 levels with SL below 555.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Indian Markets witnessed highly volatile moves in the week gone by and settled in a negative territory with loss of more than 2% week on week. Nifty indices seen trading in broader range of 11550-11950 as Tug of war among bulls and bears kept the markets shaky on back of mixed cues from global front. We expect that volatility will likely to grip the market in coming sessions as well on back of U.S elections. From derivative front, still 12000 call strike holds with maximum open interest which should act as strong resistance for nifty. On downside 11600 level would be immediate strong support below which further long liquidation can be seen. Call writers were seen adding hefty open interest in 11700-11800 & 11900 strike as well which indicates that any sharp upside would remain capped in coming week. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 23.39% while that for put options closed at 25.12%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 24.02% and is expected to remain volatile. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.67. From technical front, if Bank Nifty slips back below its 200 days exponential moving average which is placed at 23600 levels on daily charts then further Sell off cannot be ruled out which could drag the index towards 23350 levels as well.












Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 29th October, 2020

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering





Turmeric futures (Nov) is expected to hover sideways to down facing resistance near 6000 levels, while taking support near 5700 levels. As per Telangana State Agriculture University, turmeric acreage in Telanaga for 2020- 21 is reduced at 41,000 hectares vs 55,000 hectares in 2019-20. Weaker prices were the prime reason behind fall in acreage, as farmers saw better returns in cotton and soybean cultivation. Despite this presently, on the spot the demand is muted and hence the prices are also quoting on a weaker side. Amid weak turmeric prices affecting farmers, Tamil Nadu government should take steps to enhance turmeric exports and improve their livelihood’, said Erode farmers during the grievances redress meeting held through video conferencing. Looking at the monthly charts, jeera futures (Nov) is making a base holding support of 13500 levels, however facing resistance near 14500 levels. In days to come, market participants would take cues from the sowing progress which has started in small pockets in Gujarat; it is likely to gather pace from mid November. This season the farmers in Gujarat and Rajasthan may opt for other Rabi crops due to remunerative price. For the time being, the any sharp gains may remain limited as the arrivals are increasing sharply due to offloading of old stocks. Dhaniya futures (Nov) will probably trade sideways in the range of 6660-7000 levels. Spot coriander prices are muted and devoid of much action in Rajasthan mandis along with Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and coriander mandis of Gujarat. The demand from Dubai and Europe witnessed in August-September has thinned away. The upcountry buyers are absent in Kota and Baran mandi. The farmers are holding on to their stocks to get a sense of market’s direction.


Bullion counter prices dropped to one-month lows, hurt by a stronger dollar and lack of clarity on a U.S. stimulus agreement, while concerns over a spike in COVID-19 cases and uncertainty ahead of U.S. elections limited losses. President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser said that any deal on coronavirus relief legislation would have to wait for now. The dollar index rose to a near two-week high against its rivals, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Gold is now at levels where people could accumulate considering the chaos around the election, concerns about economic recovery and the coronavirus situation. Rapidly rising COVID-19 infection rates in Europe forced France and Germany to order their countries back into lockdown. Ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Democratic challenger Joe Biden leads Trump nationally, but the competition is tighter in swing states. Silver dipped to $23.28 per ounce after earlier slipping to a near one-month low. With the COVID-19 pandemic showing no signs of slowing and uncertainty over U.S fiscal stimulus, the broader $1,850-$1,940 range remains intact. Global gold demand was 892.3 tonnes over the July-September quarter, down 19% from the third quarter of 2019 and the lowest since Q3 2009, during the financial crisis, according to the WGC. News that key COVID-19 vaccine trials were paused, along with an impasse in U.S. stimulus talks, soured appetite for riskier assets while propping up the dollar, capping gold's gains. This week, gold may trade in the range of 48200-51700 and Silver may trade in the range of 56200-63100. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1850- $1940 and Silver may trade in the range of $20.20-$26.10.


Soybean futures (Nov) taking support near 4250 levels, is expected to retest the yearly high near 4500 levels. Rally is persisting in Indore and other mandis in Madhya Pradesh on strong global cues, improved buying and weak availability of soya seeds with crushers. This season the soybean crop in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is badly affected this year due to yellow mosaic virus, stem fly, anthracnose and other pests and diseases. In the international market, the sentiments are firm amid news that the La Nina event is expected to bring down productivity of South American soybean crops in the next few months, after persistent dry conditions in the region forcing farmers to delay planting and adding support to prices. RM seed futures on the national bourse have clocked a new all time high at Rs.6087 per quintal. The winters have set in North India and seasonally the consumption for mustard oil increases. Already, there is crunch in the supply side. Saying this we may continue to see the bull-run getting extended towards 6150-6200 levels. Soy oil futures (Nov) is expected to range bound in the range of 950-980 levels, while CPO futures (Nov) may trade with an upside bias in the range of 805-835 levels, respectively. The edible oil prices are trading near multi-months high and the government is considering cooling off by ways of duty reductions and canalising imports through state agencies. On the contrary, highlighting certain facts about the rise in prices of edible oil in the country, the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) of India has suggested the Government not to reduce import duties or encourage PSUs to import edible oils at concessional duties. Hence, till there is clarity, these counters shall witness a consolidation within the aforesaid range.


Crude oil prices fell, extending losses and on track for a second monthly fall, on growing concerns that the rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States could hurt fuel consumption. With a European slowdown jeopardising global consumption and the return of Libyan production, the onus must now fall on OPEC+ to reconsider their 2 million barrel per day production increases in January. Oil prices are unlikely to sustain any rally in this environment short of a statement from OPEC+. The OPEC+, are expected to raise their output by 2 million bpd in January as part of their production agreement. However, top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are in favour of maintaining the group’s output reduction of about 7.7 million bpd currently into next year as renewed lockdowns in Europe are threatening to cool demand again. Discretionary activity in Europe is slowing, while both driving and flying in the U.S. continue to register at the highest levels since the pandemic began. For next week crude price may witness huge volatility within the range of 2580-2940, where selling pressure can be seen near the resistance. Natural gas had surged to the highest level since January 2019, supported by supply disruption in the Gulf of Mexico, higher US LNG exports and increased heating demand amid cold weather in some parts of the US. We may see some choppy trade amid weekly inventory report as market players assess demand supply impact of storm activity. Hence one needs to wait for corrective dips to create fresh long position. For next week Natural gas may trade in wider range of 238-256 with bullish bias.


Cotton futures (Nov) may witness some lower level buying near 19200 and the upside may regain to 20000 levels. Traders are eyeing higher exports of over 60 lakh bales this time against 50 lakh bales in the previous seasons. China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh are looking to buy cotton from India. The country's Shankar-6 variety, which is on par with global standards, is being offered at around Rs 40,000 a candy (356 kg). Countries such as the US and Brazil are asking more than Rs 42,000. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), which has nearly 60-lakh bale carryover stock from the last season, is offering cotton to various destinations abroad ranging from 73.45 US cents a pound (Quingdao, China) to 78.15 cents (Chittagong, Bangladesh). This is against 73- 74 cents a pound that cotton from the US or Brazil costs at the port of loading. Besides, traders are also buying from CCI and exporting. Chana futures (Nov) is expected to take support near 5200, while an upside move till 5400 can be seen in days to come. The industry has been demanding a reduction in the import duty on the pulse crop. The import duty on chana is 60%. The government has, however, rightly refused to heed to the request of the trade as it will have disastrous consequences for farmers who are all set to sow their rabi crop. On the consumption side, demand for besan and lower level buying before Diwali is expected to add support. Castor seed futures (Nov) is looking bullish as it can test 4600. The demand side is robust as China has been aggressively buying commodities, including huge quantities of castor seed from India to bolster its state reserves.


Base metals may trade in the range with positive bias as solid economic growth data from the United States may boost risk sentiment for metals while gains may cap by demand worries due to surging coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States and as consumption in top user China has not picked up strongly from a summer lull. The price trends are going to be bullish if the Democrats take control of the White House and Senate in US election. So, it's going to be just a few more days of jitters. Copper can test 555 by taking support near 520. The Chinese economy is expected to grow 2.1% this year, its weakest pace in more than four decades. Zinc may trade in the range of 190-210 while Lead can move in the range of 145-155. Zinc mine production is seen sliding by 4.4% and lead by 4.7% due to lockdowns in key producer countries such as Peru, Bolivia and Mexico. Lead prices are expected to rise further in the near term as secondary lead smelters expanded output cuts. Nickel may test 1190 level by taking support near 1130 on supply worries after the top nickel ore producer in the Philippines suspended operations at its Hinatuan mine, until Nov. 10, after 19 employees tested positive for the virus. The mine contributed 11% of the Nickel Asia corp’s ore sales volume last year. Aluminum may move in the range of 145-154. The discount of LME cash aluminium over the three-month contract is at its smallest since December 2019 at $5.25 a tonne, indicating fewer nearby supplies, as LME stocks hit near a two-week low of 1.46 million tonnes.





ALUMINIUM (NOV) contract closed at Rs. 150.05 on 29th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 151.95 on 26th Oct’2020 and a low of Rs.142.05 on 01st Oct’2020. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.149.01 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.15.

One can buy above Rs. 151 for a target of Rs.156 with the stop loss of Rs.149.

NATURAL GAS MCX (NOV) contract closed at Rs. 246.60 on 29th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 249.20 on 28th Oct’2020 and a low of Rs. 222.00 on 17th Oct’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 241.31 on the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.16.

One can buy around Rs.240 for a target of Rs. 265 with the stop loss of Rs. 228.

CASTORSEED NCDEX (NOV) contract was closed at Rs. 4442.00 on 29th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 4490.00 on 29th Oct 2020 and a low of Rs. 4110.00 on 07th Oct’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4302.43 on the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 75.11.

One can buy at Rs. 4400 for a target of Rs.4650 with the stop loss of Rs 4300.




  • On MCX, Trade timings to be revised in Commodity Derivatives from Nov 2, 2020 to Mar 12, 2021 on account of the US Daylight Savings timings. New timings are 9 AM to 11:55 PM.
  • Central banks became gold sellers for the first time since 2010. Net sales totaled 12.1 tons of bullion in the third quarter, compared with purchases of 141.9 tons a year earlier, according to a report by the WorldGold Council.
  • The futures contract in Copper will be launched on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) on Nov. 19, 2020.
  • Members of the Opec-plus alliance are currently mulling a proposal to roll over their production cuts at current levels for another three months until Mar. 31 because of weaker than expected demand for oil, Opec delegates say.Another delegate confirmed that work was already under way to build a consensus ahead of the alliance's next ministerial meeting on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1.
  • The outlook for the U.S. economy has dimmed in the run-up to the presidential election, according to a Reuters poll. The consensus for 2021 and 2022 was for 3.7% and 2.9% growth, respectively.
  • Nickel Asia Corp said it suspended operations at its Hinatuan mine, one of its four in the Philippines, until Nov. 10, after 19 employees tested positive for the virus. The mine contributed 11% of the firm’s ore sales volume last year.
  • Global refined zinc production is now expected to grow by just 0.9% this year, down from a forecast of 3.7% growth when the ILZSG last updated its numbers in October 2019.


Before US elections dollar index saw heavy inflow and thus it recovered around 93.8. With upside in dollar index commodities noticed some pressure in the prices. Precious metals have slipped lower on firm dollar and uncertainty over the progress in US fiscal package talks. Gold ETF investors continued to remain on the sidelines. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund or gold ETF, fell 0.67% to 1,258.25 tonnes on Wednesday. Increasing Covid 19 cases put pressure on base metals and crude prices. France's President Emmanuel Macron's decision to shut down the country for a month hit the sentiment in financial markets while Germany said it would impose drastic new curbs as experts warned hospitals would soon be overwhelmed. The moves followed weeks of exponentially rising new infections across Europe that have forced governments across the continent to put containment measures in place. Oil prices plummeted, with Brent falling below $40 a barrel, dragged down by estimates of a surge in U.S. inventories and the surge in coronavirus cases in the United States and Europe. The market continues to focus on the bearish signs—rising U.S. inventories, increased oil supply from Libya, and a full-blown second COVID-19 wave in major developed economies threatening the economic and oil demand recovery. in the previous week, the EIA reported the largest gasoline draw since June, even as refineries cut utilization rates and gasoline production for the week to October 16.Natural gas saw terrific jump in the prices. U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 7% to a five-week high on Monday asliquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rise and worries production could be shut in again later this weekwith another hurricane expected in the Gulf of Mexico.Despite the rise in the futures, spot gas prices for Monday fell to their lowest in years in several regions of the United States and Canada as mild weather and coronavirus demand destruction cut usage of the fuel for heating and industrial purposes. Base metals prices were mixed amid mix cues.

In spices, turmeric saw sharp decline on taking negative cues from spot market. Coriander saw limited upside. The festive demand was weak on the spot markets. The bulk buyers were on the sidelines at Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh along with Rajasthan mandis. Oilseeds and edible counter saw profit booking from higher levels. High prices in the domestic market seem to have brought down the export of soyameal during the year. The correction in palm oil prices on BMD & soy oil on CBOT lent bearish sentiments to the domestic edible oil prices.Spot demand of guar gum remained average, but guar seed demand was weak.







Spot Prices (% Change)



Strategic petroleum reserve…..Energy Security with saving revenue

Strategic petroleum reserves refer to crude oil inventories (or stockpiles) held by the government of a particular country, as well as private industry, to safeguard the economy and helps maintain national security during an energy crisis.

India is the third-largest energy consumer in the world after China and the United States, and its need for energy supply continues to climb as a result of the country’s dynamic economic growth, population growth, and modernization over the past several years. During 2019-20, the consumption of petroleum products was 213.7 MMT and the percentage of import dependency of oil and oil equivalent gas was 77.9 per cent. But India is highly dependent on crude oil imports. To meet the country’s growing energy demand, including securing affordable energy supplies the government of India has made considerable headway with energy reforms by focusing on greater energy security and infrastructure development.

Building of a strategic petroleum reserve

In 1998, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee administration proposed building petroleum reserves as a long-term solution to managing the oil market. However, India completed its first phase of SPR construction after long time at the end of 2018. The first phase includes three locations (Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, and Padur) and has a total capacity of 39 million barrels, which represents about 10 days of crude oil demand coverage.

The government launched a second SPR phase in October 2018 and plans to construct another 48 million barrels. Indian government approved the construction of a new commercial-cum-strategic storage facility in Chandikhole and doubling the capacity at Padur. This would raise the strategic reserve capacity to 15.33 million tons. Apart from this, India is planning to expand more strategic crude oil facilities in second phase at Rajkot in Gujarat and Bikaner in Rajasthan. These facilities together will help support 22 days of India’s crude oil requirements.

In an effort to strengthen energy security, the country is gradually improving crude and petroleum products’ storage capacity from the existing 74 days of national consumption to 90 days. India will have oil reserves equivalent to at least 87 days of net imports, once the $1.6 billion second phase of Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves (ISPR) programme is operational. Indian refiners also maintain 65 days of storage, taking the tally to 87 days.

Overseas company permitted for crude stored in Indian caverns

UAE's largest oil producer, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is interested in storing more oil in India's strategic petroleum reserves to boost energy ties with world's third largest oil consumer. In fact, to incentivise the storage, India has already permitted ADNOC to export oil from the reserves if there is no domestic demand for it. As per present arrangement, ADNOC is storing crude at two of India's strategic reserves at Padur and Mangaluru in Karnataka.

India eyes on foreign land for storing oil

Now India is exploring the possibility of overseas crude storage facilities in the US and other commercially viable locations as part of its energy security strategy.




Currency Table

Market Stance

Indian rupee registered the steep decline in week ended Thursday and dropped to three months low in the wake of resurgence of covid cases in the western world. However the big event of the US Presidential election is just few days away and risk sentiment is at elevated level to push rupee to fall below 74.50 soon amid expectations for volatility in the wake of next week’s presidential election represent yet another headwind confronting market participants. From the majors, the euro remains weak against dollar mark but somehow managed gains against rupee due to weakness in domestic currencies. A fresh covid restriction in Germany and France for a month to stem the rise in Covid-19 infections raises more growth concerns across euro zone. We can expect large swing in EURINR after the US election results announces due on 4th November. Meanwhile the British pound remains steady as intense Brexit negotiations continue, as both sides are now driven to complete a deal by mid-November.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (NOV) contract closed at 74.6050 on 29-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 74.6450 on 29-Oct-20 and a low of 73.8075 on 28-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 74.0000.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.97. One can buy at 74.50 for the target of 75.50 with the stop loss of 73.90.

GBP/INR (NOV) contract closed at 96.7675 on 29-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 97.0125 on 29-Oct-20 and a low of 96.0050 on 28-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 96.0600.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.13. One can sell at 97.00 for a target of 95.80 with the stop loss of 97.60.

News Flows of last week

26th OCT U.S. new home sales dropped; record low mortgage rates underpinning demand
26th OCT BOJ to hold fire, signals readiness toext end COVID - response package
27th OCT U.S. issues fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting state oil sector
27th OCT U.S. core capital good orders hit six-year high; consumer confidence ebbs
28th OCT German economy grew by 6% in third quarter but recovery likely to slow - DIW
29th OCT EU arms itself against U.S. and others in trade disputes
29th OCT BOJ cuts growth forecast but flags policy pause on recovery prospects
29th OCT Japan automakers post 2.1% dip in Sept global sales
30th OCT Global corona virus cases rise by single-day record of half a million

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (NOV) contract closed at 87.4150 on 29-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 87.6900 on 29-Oct-20 and a low of 86.9400 on 28-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 87.1300.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.32. One can buy at 87.40 for a target of 88.50 with the stop loss of 86.80.

JPY/INR (NOV) contract closed at 71.6350 on 29-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 71.6725 on 29-Oct-20 and a low of 70.3975 on 26-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 70.5000.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 73.48. One can buy at 71.50 for a target of 72.50 with the stop loss of 70.90.




LIC IPO may spill over to next fiscal

The mega initial public offering of Life Insurance Corp (LIC) may spill over to the next fiscal as the government will first look at the independent actuarial valuation of the country''s largest insurer. The government plans to amend the Act under which the state-run LIC was set up to prepare for the sale. Astake sale in LIC is crucial for meeting a record Rs 2.1 lakh crore disinvestment target set for the current fiscal ending March 31, 2021. In the 2020-21 Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced government''s plan to sell a part of its holding in LIC by way of IPO. The government has budgeted to collect Rs 2.10 lakh crore from stake sale. This includes Rs 1.20 lakh crore from CPSE disinvestment and Rs 90,000 crore from selling stake in financial institutions.

Burger King India files IPO papers with Sebi, fresh issue size increased to Rs 542 crore

Burger King India, one of the fastest growing quick service restaurant chains in India, has filed addendum to the draft red herring prospectus with the capital markets regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). As per the addendum, the fresh issue size has been increased to Rs 600 crore from Rs 400 crore in November 2019 when it had filed DRHP. Of the total fresh issue, the company has reserved Rs 150 crore towards pre-IPO placement. Of which, company has undertaken a pre-IPO placement by way of a rights issue of 1.32 crore equity shares to promoter selling shareholder for cash at a price of Rs 44 per share aggregating to Rs 58.08 crore. With this, the fresh issue size of up to Rs 600 crore has been reduced to Rs 541.92 crore. As per the DRHP filed in November 2019, promoter QSR Asia Pte Ltd held 99.39 percent equity stake in Burger King. Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, CLSA India, Edelweiss Financial Services and JM Financial are the book running lead managers to the isssue.








Debt MFs log outflow for 2nd consecutive month in September on withdrawal from liquid funds

Debt-oriented mutual fund schemes witnessed a net outflow of over Rs 51,900 crore in September, making it the second consecutive monthly withdrawal, largely on the back of a massive pullout from liquid category. According to the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), mutual funds (MFs) that invest in fixed-income securities or debt funds saw an outflow of Rs 51,962 crore last month as compared to Rs 3,907 crore in August. Prior to that, debt funds had seen an inflow of Rs 91,392 crore in July, Rs 2,862 crore in June, Rs 63,665 crore in May and Rs 43,431 crore in April. Liquid funds witnessed net outflows to the tune of Rs 65,952 crore, which is where corporate companies tend to park money, followed by ultra short duration funds (Rs 4,867 crore) and money market funds ( Rs 4,857 crore). Credit risk funds saw an outflow of Rs 539 crore in September compared to Rs 554 crore in August, Rs 670 crore in July, Rs 1,494 crore in June, Rs 5,173 crore in May and Rs 19,239 crore in April. Gilt funds, which attracted investor interest in the recent times given their sovereign status and zero exposure to credit risk, experienced net outflow of Rs 483 crore in September, which was lower than the net outflow of Rs 1,122 core in August.

Mutual fund monthly SIP inflows, AUM fall a tad in September; but SIP folios rise MoM

Monthly contributions via systematic investment plans (SIP) in September has remained more or less stable compared to the last two months. Inflows for the same in September was Rs 7,788 crore, down marginally from Rs 7,792 crore in August and Rs 7,831 crore in July. Assets under management (AUM) of mutual fund companies that have come through the SIP route fell marginally to Rs 3.35 lakh crore in September from Rs 3.36 lakh crore in August. The silver lining is that the mutual fund industry added new SIP accounts in September. Currently, mutual funds have about 3.33 crore SIP folios through which investors regularly invest in schemes. In August, the total SIP folios were 3.3 crore. Overall, net AUM of the 42-player mutual fund industry fell to Rs 26.85 lakh crore in September from Rs 27.49 lakh crore a month ago.




Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)





Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 29/10/2020
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 6%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.