2019: Issue 684, Week: 20th - 24th May

A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only)




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From The Desk Of Editor


n the week gone by, global stock markets remained in pressure owing to escalation I of trade dispute between U.S. and China that is threatening to affect the global growth. Various data points out of China like industrial output, retail sales, faltering credit and consumption shows that the economy is losing momentum and the government would need to boost stimulus to support economy. As a matter of fact the recent tariff imposed by U.S. on Chinese goods is expected to be further drag on the Chinese growth that is already experiencing pressure. The sentiments got deteriorated in Europe after Italy’s deputy prime minister said the country was ready to break European Union budget rules, if necessary to spur employment.

Back at home, stock market witnessed sharp volatility as foreign investors have stepped up sale of stocks as the US-China trade war escalates and the elections enter the final lap. Volatility in the stock markets has surged significantly ahead of crucial exit polls on 19th May, which is the final prediction before the election result becomes clear on May 23. Sentiments also got spooked after Indian Met department said that this year Monsoon will be late by 6 days after its normal onset date. On the macro economic front, trade deficit for April has widened to $15.33 billion, mainly on the back of increased imports and lower growth in exports. India's exports rose marginally by 0.64 per cent in April to $26 billion while imports increased by 4.5 per cent to $41.4 billion compared to the year-ago month. Meanwhile, India's services exports rose by 6.6% to %17.94 billion in March.

On the commodity market front, CRB saw some rebound after a multi week fall on some fresh buying in crude, base metals and some agri commodities. Market reacted on some improved fundamental and geopolitical tensions and ignored the upside in dollar index. OPEC said that world demand for its oil would be higher than expected this year as supply growth from rivals including U.S. shale producers slows, pointing to a tighter market, if the exporter group refrains from raising output. Gold futures moved sharply lower, pressured by a batch of upbeat U.S. domestic data as equities traded broadly higher, dulling the appeal of the haven metal. Spices noticed magical upside, especially turmeric. The sales of the yellow spice on the spot markets is increasing against the daily supplies of new crop in Erode market and thus strong trend witnessed in futures too. GDP and CPI of Japan, Powell Speaks at Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Conference, Durable Goods Orders of US, RBAGovernor Lowe Gives Speech in Brisbane, OECD Economic Outlook, CB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt¸ CPI of UK etc are few important data to be released this week which may give significant direction to the commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.





• India's trade deficit widened to $15.33 billion in April from a year ago. Trade deficit was $13.72 billion in April 2018 and was $10.89 billion in March 2019. Merchandise exports remained almost flat at $26.07 billion in April compared with a year earlier, while imports were up 4.5% at $41.40 billion.

• India's services exports rose by 6.6 per cent to $17.94 billion in March. Services imports in March too grew by 10.55 per cent to $11.37 billion. The trade balance in services for the month under review is estimated at $6.58 billion.

• India's Consumer prices climbed 2.92 percent year-on-year in April, following March's 2.86 percent increase. In the same period last year, inflation was 4.58 percent. The consumer food price index rose at a faster pace of 1.1 percent afterthe 0.3 percentincrease seen in March.

• India's wholesale price index climbed 3.07 percent year-on-year in April, after a 3.18 percent rise in March. Economists had expected a 3.0 percent increase.

Information Technology

• HCL Technologies plans to take on board nearly 2,000 IBM employees. In December 2018, HCL Tech announced that it would buy eight software products or IPs from IBM at $1.8 billion, making it the singlelargest acquisition by any Indian IT firm. The deal, which is expected to be sealed by June, 2019, will give HCLTech access to over 5,500 clients globally, along with IBM's 2,000 employees.


• Mahindra Logistics plans acquisitions in south-east Asia to develop its freight forwarding wing to achieve its targeted turnover of Rs 6,000 crore by 2021.

Mining & Minerals

• National Mineral Development Corporation Limited (NMDC Ltd) is in the process of investing about $1 billion on infrastructure in the next three years to help ramp up iron ore production.


• Ashok Leyland has won an order from African nation Senegal to supply 400 minibuses valued 10.06 million Euros to Senbus Industries, a company manufacturing and selling buses and operating out of the West African nation's capital city Dakar.


• Engineers India Ltd has signed an agreement to provide project management consultancy for a new 1.5 million tonne refinery being set up in Mongolia. The pact was signed with Mongol Refinery State Owned LLC.


• US initial jobless claims slid to 212,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 220,000.

• US housing starts surged up by 5.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.235 million in April after climbing by 1.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.168 million in March. Economists had expected housing starts to jump by 5.8 percent to a rate of 1.205 million from the 1.139 million originally reported for the previous month.

• US business inventories were virtually unchanged in March after rising by 0.3 percent in February. Economists had expected inventories to be unchanged.

• US industrial production fell by 0.5 percent in April following a revised 0.2 percent uptick in March. Economists had expected production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.1 percent dip originally reported for the previous month.

• US retail sales edged down by 0.2 percent in April after spiking by an upwardly revised 1.7 percent in March. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2 percent compared to the 1.6 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

• The euro area trade surplus declined in March on higher imports. The trade surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted EUR 17.9 billion from EUR 20.6 billion in February. The surplus was also below the forecast of EUR 19.4 billion. Exports grew only 0.9 percent in March, while imports logged a bigger growth of 2.5 percent.


Stocks *Closing Price Trend Date Trend Changed Rate Trend Changed SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing S/l
S&P BSE SENSEX 37931 UP 08.02.19 36546 36300 35300
NIFTY50 11407 UP 08.02.19 10944 10900 10600
NIFTY IT 15843 UP 21.07.17 10712 15200 14800
NIFTY BANK* 29450 UP 30.11.18 26863 27700 27000
ACC 1607 UP 01.03.19 1482 1560 1540
BHARTIAIRTEL 328 UP 15.03.19 338 300 290
BPCL 376 UP 08.03.19 367 358 355
CIPLA 544 UP 01.03.19 552 530 520
SBIN 319 UP 02.11.18 286 295 285
HINDALCO 192 DOWN 17.05.19 192 210 215
ICICI BANK 390 UP 02.11.18 355 370 360
INFOSYS 724 UP 14.12.18 706 710 690
ITC 301 UP 08.03.19 292 290 285
L&T 1362 UP 08.03.19 1339 1320 1290
MARUTI 6707 DOWN 26.04.19 6843 7300 7500
NTPC 126 UP 08.03.19 127 124 120
ONGC 167 UP 08.03.19 150 145 143
RELIANCE 1267 UP 30.11.18 1168 - 1250
TATASTEEL 469 DOWN 10.05.19 487 500 510

*Reliance has broken the support of 1280

Closing as on 17-05-2019


1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.


Meeting Date Company Purpose
20-05-2019 Tata Motors Accounts, Final Dividend
20-05-2019 B P C L Accounts, Final Dividend
20-05-2019 Torrent Pharma. Accounts, Final Dividend
21-05-2019 Bosch Accounts, Dividend
21-05-2019 Tech Mahindra Quarterly Results, Dividend
21-05-2019 Jindal Steel Accounts
22-05-2019 Cipla Accounts, Dividend
22-05-2019 HDFC Bank Stock Split
22-05-2019 Bank of Baroda Accounts
22-05-2019 Canara Bank Accounts
23-05-2019 Sun TV Network Quarterly Results
24-05-2019 Ashok Leyland Accounts, Dividend
24-05-2019 Indraprastha Gas Quarterly Results, Dividend
25-05-2019 India Cements Accounts
25-05-2019 BEML Ltd Accounts, Final Dividend
25-05-2019 Divi's Lab. Accounts, Final Dividend
27-05-2019 Colgate-Palm. Quarterly Results
27-05-2019 B H E L Others
27-05-2019 Zee Entertainmen Quarterly Results, Final Dividend
27-05-2019 GAIL (India) Quarterly Results, Final Dividend
27-05-2019 NHPC Ltd Accounts
28-05-2019 Sun Pharma.Inds. Accounts, Dividend
29-05-2019 M & M Quarterly Results, Dividend,AGM
29-05-2019 Havells India Dividend
30-05-2019 Berger Paints Quarterly Results, Dividend
30-05-2019 Apollo Hospitals Quarterly Results, Dividend
Ex-Date Company Purpose
22-05-2019 ITC 575% Dividend
23-05-2019 Raymond 30% Final Dividend
23-05-2019 DCB Bank 10% Final Dividend
24-05-2019 Tata Global 250% Final Dividend
27-05-2019 Manappuram Fin. 27.5% Interim Dividend





Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis


CMP: 1265.70

Target Price: 1513

Upside: 20%


Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 1417.00/907.10
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 802316.11
EPS (Rs.) 62.45
P/E Ratio (times) 20.27
P/B Ratio (times) 2.07
Dividend Yield (%) 0.47
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• The company pos ted decent growth in consolidated numbers in Q4 FY19, backed by strong show by retail and telecom divisions. Although, the Petrochem segment performance was impacted by lower crude throughput due to planned maintenance and weak light and middle distillate product cracks impacted GRM, the overall profitability rose to Rs. 10,362 crores, a growth of over 9% YoY.

• Reliance Jio Infocomm, the telecom arm of RIL, reported a profit of Rs 840 crore in Q4 FY19, a jump of 64.7 per cent on a YoY basis a 55.8% growth in its operating revenue to Rs. 11,106 crore as the telco added 26.6 million subscribers to reach a total subscriber base of 306.7 million. ARPU stood at Rs 126.It is working on reinventing the connectivity solutions market for Homes and Enterprise with our next generation Fiber-to-the-Subscriber(FTTX).

• 4Q FY19 revenue from the Refining & Marketing segment decreased by 6.1% YoY to Rs. 87,844 crore while EBIT declined by 25.5% YoY to Rs. 4,176 crore. R&M segment performance was impacted by lower crude throughput due to planned maintenance. Also, weak light and middle distillate product cracks impactedGRM.GRMstoodat$8.2/bbl,outperforming Singaporecomplexmarginsby$5.0/bbl.

• Investment assets increased 22% to Rs 22231 crore end March 2019, as compared to Rs 18193 crore end March 2018. Investment leverage (net of borrowings) was 4.09x end March 2019 as compared to 3.9x end September 2018. Investment income increased to Rs 423.64 crore in Q4FY2019 as compared to Rs 323.42 crore in Q4FY2018.

• Reliance Retail saw 89% growth in revenue to Rs. 1.31 Lakh crore in the March quarterfrom Rs. 69,198 crore YoY. Segment operating profit rose 168% to Rs. 5,546 crore from Rs. 2,064 crore. The company has opened 2,829 stores in the year ended 31 March and 510 stores in the fourth quarter. The company recently acquired a 259-year-old British toy store

chain- Hamleys for Rs. 620 crores in cash in a transaction that will catapult Reliance Brands to be a dominant playerin the globaltoy retail industry.


• Foreign Exchange Fluctuation

• Regulatory Changes in tariff (telecommunications business)


Reliance has continued to grow and evolve, creating value by building competitive global scale businesses and delivering increasing shareholder value. The company has made significant investments in new plants, organically growing the energy business. New age businesses such as retail and Jio have shown strong resilience & sustainable growth. Jio continued expanding the 4G network coverage and further deepening in existing areas. Jio’s growth will create long-term shareholder value. Thus itis expected thatthe stock will see a price target of Rs. 1513 in 8- 10 months time frame on FY20E EP Sof 82 and a 3year average P/Ex of 18.4 times.


CMP: 748.15

Target Price: 852

Upside: 14%


Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 788.55/499.05
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 192479.42
EPS (Rs.) 19.58
P/E Ratio (times) 38.24
P/B Ratio (times) 2.84
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• The Bank’s Advances grew 13% YoY to Rs.4,94,798 crores as on 31st March 2019. Domestic loans grew 18% while the overseas book de-grew by 29%. Retail loans grew 19% YOY to Rs. 2,45,812 crores and accounted for 50% of the Net Advances of the Bank. The total deposits on Quarterly Average Basis (QAB) grew by 24%. CASAand Retail Term deposits on aQAB basis puttogetherrecorded a growth of 21% YOY. On a period end basis,the total deposits grew 21%YOY.

• Net interest margin for the quarter ended March 2019 remained healthy and stood at 3.44%. NII for FY19 grew 17% YOY to Rs.21,708 crores from Rs.18,618 crores in FY18 and NIM for FY19 stood at 3.43%.

• In percentage terms, % Gross Non Performing Asset (GNPA) fell to 5.26% as of March 2019 as compared to 5.75 % as of March 2018. In percentage terms, % Net Non Performing Asset (NNPA) fell to 2.06% as of March 2019 as compared to 2.36% as of March 2018.

• The Bank’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) remains stable. Under Basel III, Total CAR & Tier I stood at 15.84% and 12.54% respectively

• The Bank has fully recognized the necessary impairment and the resultant provisioning impact of the asset reclassification as per Reserve Bank of India (RBI) assessment,

• According to the management of the company, Bank's Execution strategy 2022 pivots on delivery of growth and profitability on a sustainable basis with the intention to get back to 18% ROE levels.

• It expects the domestic loan book of the Bank to

grow 5-7% faster than industry growth rates. It expects credit costs to stabilize below the long term average over this period. Cost to assets should continue to trend down, towards stated goal of 2% by FY22. It expects NIMs to settle in the range of 3.5-3.8% over the medium term.


• Regulatory Risk

• Competitive Risk


With the strong operating metrics, stressed asset resolution and robust return ratios, the stock is expected to move further. Retail Bank continues to be the bedrock of Bank's financial performance and strong execution, robust distribution and digital proliferation would help the Bank to gain strong market share and improve customer experience. Thus, it is expected that the stock may see a price target of Rs.852 in 8 To 10 months time frame on target P/BV of 2.84x and FY20 (E) BVPS of Rs.300.11.

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.



Beat the Street-Technical Analysis

State Bank of India (SBIN)

The stock closed at Rs 319.25 on 17th May, 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 237.85 on 18th May 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 339.65 on 28th March 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 290.93

Short term, medium term and long term bias are positive for the stock as it was forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on weekly charts, which is considered to be bullish. Moreover, it has give the breakout of same in last week by ended over 3.5% gains with volumes so follow up buying can continue in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 312-314 levels for the upside target of 335-345 levels with SL below 300.

Tata Global Beverages Limited (TATAGLOBAL)

The stock closed at Rs 235.40 on 17th May, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 177.05 on 11th Feb 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 284.50 on 03rd July 2018. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 215.69

As we can see on chart that the stock has consolidated in the range of 180-220 levels for six months and has formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock has given the breakout of pattern by registered gains over 18%, along with rise in volumes, which gives the positive outlook for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 227-229 levels for the upside target of 255-260 levels with SL below 214.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




In the week gone by, smart recovery was seen in the market led by short covering from lower levels before exit polls. Call writers covered their short positions and put writers were seen selling puts. Derivative data has again turned positive. Maximum put open interest buildup of more than 38 lakh shares at 11000 strike puts, which should act as strong support zone. Nifty is most likely to trade in the range of 11000 – 11800 levels with positive bias and has support at lower levels. Various supports are 11250 & 11150 spot levels. Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was up and closed at 24.42% while that for put options closed at 24.55%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 28.37% and is expected to remain sideways. The PCR OI (Open Interest) for the week closed at 0.97 indicating call writing in the recent rally. On the technical front, 11150-11250 spot levels is strong support zone and current bounce is likely to continue towards 11500-11550 levels.












Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering




Bullishness is likely to prevail in turmeric futures (June) and the counter is expected to rally towards 7300-7500 levels. The prices of turmeric are increasing on the spot markets due to strong demand amid limited supply of good-quality stock in the market. Moreover, trading activity at Sangli, Maharashtra, is increasing due to better quality of turmeric in comparison with the Erode market. There is more room for jeera futures (June) to move forward & test 18300 levels. It is reported that good quantities of jeera are being exported to China and Dubai, and more enquiries are coming for the spice. The lower output in Syria and Turkey has led to a shift in demand to India & hence, jeera is witnessing a buying spree from exporters as well as bulk buyers. The bullish trend is expected to take hold of cardamom futures (June) and drive it towards 2450-2500 levels. This season prolonged dry spell over the past month has damaged 40% of plantations in key growing areas of Kerala. Also, incessant rains, strong winds, landslides, and water stagnation have had a devastating effect on the sensitive crop and the damaged plantations are beyond recovery. Dhaniya futures (June) is expected to trade on a bullish note & test its previous high of 7675. Going ahead, if it sustains above this level, then we may see further upside of 7800 levels. The sentiments are positive because of lower supply in the key spot markets of Rajasthan and rise in demand from domestic buyers. Ideally, spot markets in Rajasthan should receive around 30,000-35,000 bags (1 bag = 40 kg) in this period. However, due to lower crop this year, only 7,000-8,000 bags are seen.


Bullion counter may continue to witness roller coaster ride as uncertainty regarding US china trade war and volatile movement in greenback is keeping investors jittery. This week results of the general election in India on 23rd May will impact movement of local currency rupee, which can move in range of 69- 72. Recently firmer dollar and increased investor appetite for riskier assets due to strong U.S. data and US corporate results resulted in selling pressure in bullion counter. Gold can take support near 31700 levels while taking resistance near 32500 levels while silver can take support near 36300 levels while taking resistance near 37500 levels. US President Donald Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on Chinese imports rekindled trade tensions between the two economies and pushed investors to seek insurance in safe haven assets. Just when US-China trade war has eased off for a while, US slapped sanctions on Chinese telecom giant Huawei, although US representative will travel to Beijing to continue negotiations with Chinese counterparts.U.S. President DonaldTrump stated that he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next month as the trade war between the world's two largest economies intensified, sending shivers through global markets. The U.S. housing data showed homebuilding increased more than expected in April, while unemployment benefits fell more than expected pointing to sustained labour market strength that should underpin the economy. People’s Bank of China revealed the central bank bought gold for the fifth consecutive month this year, adding 480,000 ounces of the yellow metal to its reserves inApril, which now total 61.1 million ounces.


Soybean futures is expected to trade with a positive bias & post gains for the third consecutive week taking positive cues from the estimates of lower rainfall in the major growing areas. The Private weather forecaster Skymet has projected poor monsoon rains in pockets of Marathwada and Vidharbha in Maharashtra, key soybean producing areas, which is also positive for the prices. The June contract is likely to touch 3850, taking support near 3700 levels. Secondly, the latest estimates of demand for soybean meal for first six month of the current oil year shows that exports are higher at 16.880 lakh tons & on the supply side, the balance stock of meal as on 1st May 2019 is 1.53 lakh tons, as compared to 11.78 lakh tons & 2.055 lakh tons respectively. U.S. soybean oil futures (July) may see an extended recovery till 28.65 cents per pound taking support near 27 cents as the market participants are discounting the fears of trade war, until it further escalates. Taking cues from the positive sentiments of the international market & a weaker rupee against dollar hovering near 70, soy oil futures (June) is expected to see the level of 755, while CPO futures (June) will remain steady in the range of 525-538 levels. Palm oil on the Malaysia Derivative Exchange has taken support near 1950 MYR/ton & is trading more than two-week high on better demand for the edible oil, supported by the continuation of good exports. The bullishness will prevail in mustard futures (June) & is expected to soar towards 3950-3970 levels. The sentiments are upbeat due to buying by oil millers and on hope of a pick-up in procurement at minimum support price.


Crude oil prices may continue to remain on upside path as rising tensions in the Middle East stoked fears of potential supply disruptions. Crude prices continue to rally as Persian Gulf tensions remain elevated. ASaudi-led military coalition in Yemen carried out several air strikes on the Houthi-held capital Sanaa after the Iranian-aligned movement claimed responsibility for drone attacks on two Saudi oil pumping stations earlier last week. U.S. President Donald Trump has told his top advisers he does not want to get the United States involved in a war with Iran. Iran, under U.S. sanctions that prevent its oil from being sold anywhere in the world, has warned the other oil producers in the Middle East as well as the United States in recent weeks of "consequences" for their actions, prompting Washington to move a warship and bombers to the region. Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf can often cause oil prices to rise very quickly as they raise fears about the security of crude supplies coming out of the region, which supplies about half of the world's oil needs. Crude oil can move higher towards 4600 levels while taking support near 4300 levels. IEAstated that due to weakened demand, the global oil market was in a surplus of about 700,000 barrels in the first quarter despite WTI and Brent gaining about 30% in prices. Natural gas may remain sideways as it can move in range of 170-190 levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) added 106 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to inventories during the week ended May 10.


The fear of escalating trade war will continue to keep the upside capped of cotton futures on the domestic bourse. Sluggish business activities are being observed in the spot markets as both buyers and sellers are cautious trading. Hence the May contract is expected to witness a consolidation in the range of 20800-21400 levels. On the international market, ICE cotton futures (July) is trapped in a sideways range of 65-68 cents per pound. Escalations in the trade war come at a time when expanding production meant American inventories were forecast to reach a decade high. Guar seed futures (June) is likely to witness selling pressure & plunge towards 4350-4300 levels, while guar gum futures (June) is expected to witness correction towards 8800-8725 levels. The sentiments have turned bearish after the estimates by the Rajasthan State Agriculture department show that guar production to increase by 45.5% in the coming 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) season from an output of 1.03 mln tn estimated in the current year due to sharp rise in yields. Yield in the coming season is seen at 500 kg per ha, compared to 334 kg this year. Wheat futures (June) will probably maintain its uptrend taking support near 1955 levels. Demand for spot wheat is seen firm in coming days as prices of the grain sold under the government's open market sale scheme has been higherthan the spot. Maize futures on the national bourse is making a new life time high every week & going ahead this bullish trend is expected to stay intact. The June contract would probably rise towards 2000- 2050 in days to come supported by robust purchases by feed makers while adding that uncertainty overimports ofthe grain.


In base metal counter,further volatility is expected to remain high on the back of uncertain environment regards to US and China trade tensions. Base metals got support as U.S. new-home construction rose for a second month and topped estimates in April in a sign of positive momentum for the housing sector. Copper may take support near 420 levels while its upside is capped near 445 levels. The group has in fact lifted its 2019 deficit assessment to 189,000 tonnes from a forecast 65,000 tonnes at its last biannual meeting in October 2018. The ICSG is expecting mine supply to be “essentially unchanged” this year, up just 0.2% at 20.64 million tonnes. Meanwhile Lead may take support near 125 levels and can recover towards 135 levels. Nickel can take support near 820 levels and can recovertowards 880 levels.Global miner BHPwill hold on to theAustralian nickel operations it previously put up for sale, while Rio Tinto,is working on copper and lithium projects as the mining industry bets on demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Aluminium may test 158 levels while taking support near 142 levels. Aluminium prices moved higher as alumina refinery shutdowns in northern China's Shanxi province raise production costs for the metal used in everything from cans to cars. Alumina prices in northern China have now exceeded 3,000 yuan a tonne and touched their highest since Dec. 10. Zinc may remain sideways as it can take support near 205 levels while facing resistance near 222 levels. Zinc has been supportive as premium of cash zinc over the 3M contract hit its highest since 1997 at $US141, signaling worries about nearby supply owing large holdings of warrants and cash contracts.





NICKEL MCX (MAY) contract closed at Rs. 856.70 on 16th May’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 975.70 on 6th Mar’19 and a low of Rs. 825.60 on 9th May’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 855.32.On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.317.

One can sell at Rs. 860 for a target of Rs. 800 with the stop loss of Rs. 887.

COPPER MCX (JUN) contract closed at Rs. 428.40 on 16th May’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 473.95 on 27th Feb’19 and a low of Rs. 421.35 on 14th Jan’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 434.81. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34.459.

One can sell around Rs. 431 for a target of Rs. 420 with the stop loss of Rs. 436

DHANIYANCDEX (JUN) contract was closed at Rs. 7605.00 on 16th May’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 7676.00 on 25th Apr’19 and a low of Rs. 6183.00 on 13th Feb’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 7347.30. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.080.

One can buy around Rs. 7200 for a target of Rs. 7700 with the stop loss of Rs 6950.




• U.S. housing starts rose 5.7% in to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.24 mln units in Apr.

• Polish mining company KGHM may produce more copper than planned at its Sierra Gorda mine in Chile in 2019.

• A Brazilian federal court has lifted one of two production embargoes on a key plant owned by Norwegian metals maker Norsk Hydro.

• State miner Codelco, the world's top copper producer, had agreed on a new labor contract with the union of supervisors at its small Salvador mine in northern Chile.

• US net cotton sales were at 226,900 RB for the week ended May 9 in the marketing year 2018/2019, down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.

• Import of vegetable oils during April 2019 decreased by 11% to 1,232,283 tons compared to 1,386,466 tons in April 2018, consisting 1,198,763 tons of edible oils and 33,520 tons of non-edible oils. - Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

The latest estimates of Supply and Demand of Soybean and Soybean Meal for the current oil year i.e. October 2018 to April 2019 shows that 101.830 lakh tons is still available for crushing as compared to 86 lakh tons during the same period last oil year. - Soybean Processors Association of India.


In the week gone by, CRB saw some rebound after a multi week fall on some fresh buying in crude, base metals and some agri commodities. Market reacted on some improved fundamental and geopolitical tensions ignoring the upside in dollar index. Oil took support from heightened tensions in the Middle East, with helicopters carrying U.S. staff from the American embassy in Baghdad on Wednesday out of apparent concern about perceived threats from Iran. It added risk premium in crude and world paid little attention on surprise rise in inventory in US. OPEC said that world demand for its oil would be higher than expected this year as supply growth from rivals including U.S. shale producers slows, pointing to a tighter market, if the exporter group refrains from raising output. Natural gas prices saw some rebound. In base, all base metals moved up except copper, which saw multi week low on rise in inventories in LME. Copper futures hit a fresh 14 week low following the fall in Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 450 points all due to the fact of no trade agreement has come about with China. Gold futures moved sharply lower, pressured by a batch of upbeat U.S. domestic data as equities traded broadly higher, dulling the appeal of the haven metal. Gold had found support earlier in the week from modest, haven-related demand as investors kept an eye on an escalating U.S.-China tariff battle and rising tensions in the Middle East. Silver also closed the week in bearish territory.

Spices noticed magical upside, especially turmeric. The sales of the yellow spice on the spot markets is increasing against the daily supplies of new crop in Erode market and thus strong trend witnessed in futures too. Jeera continued to trade strong on improved demand from overseas market. According to trade sources, cumin seed production in Syria is estimated lower at 25,000 tons this year as major part of their crop has been damaged and discolored due to heavy rains. While, in Turkey jeera production is estimated at 8,000 tons as rains have damaged 25% of the crop. Oil seeds saw strong rebound across the board after a multi week fall. The market participants are looking for a ray of opportunity after the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) discussed issues related to India’s pending request for the clearance of more farm products for the Chinese market. The resultant was that the draft protocol for is expected to be finalized soon for soybean meal. In edible oil, ref soya prices propped up further while CPO also saw marginal buying.







SPOT PRICES (% change)



MCX COMDEX…….a barometer for the performance of commodities

MCX COMDEX is a significant barometer for the performance of commodities market and would be an ideal investment tool in commodities market over a period of time. This is the maiden flagship real-time Composite Commodity Index in India based on commodity futures prices of an exchange launched in June 2005.

MCX is India's leading commodity derivatives exchange with a market share of 91.6% per centin terms ofthe value of commodity futures contracts traded in FY2019.

MCX COMDEX is designed & developed by the Research & Planning Department of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) in association with the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata. Also Group Indices for MCX AGRI, MCX METAL & MCX ENERGY on commodity futures prices have been developed to represent different commodity segments as traded on the exchange.

Advantage of MCX COMDEX

• The COMDEX gives users the ability to efficiently hedge commodity and inflation exposure and lay off residual risk.

• Protection can be established regardless of overall market direction.

Eligibility Criteria

Liquidity is most essential eligibility criteria for commodities to be included in the index. It means number of contracts traded on MCX of individual commodities (including all varieties) in a specified period is taken as eligibility criteria. The constituents of the Index are liquid commodities traded on the Exchange.

MCX COMDEX weighting approach is equally relying on factors that are endogenous to the futures market (liquidity on the exchange) and exogenous to the futures market (physical market size). The rebalancing is done annually or as and when deemed necessary by the Index management team on price-percentage basis. The last weightage has been rebalanced on September 20, 2018.

Weightage of commodities in MCX COMDEX




Currency Table

News Flows of last week

13th MAY India's inflation posted a modest uptick to 2.92% in April
14th MAY UK PM May's party slumps to fifth place as pressure mounts for her to go.
15th MAY Theresa May Plans to Put Brexit Law to U.K. Parliament in Early June.
16th MAY Trump plans to delay tariffs on EU auto imports

Market Stance

Indian Rupee sluggish moves continued in the week gone by, as the risk-off sentiment from US-CHINA trade war escalated further after China retaliated against tariff hike by US last week. However, Indian FX volumes remains subdued ahead of general election outcome next week. Admittedly US-IRAN political tensions pushed Importers to hedge aggressively. President Trump’s National Security Advisor Mr. John Bolton already advocated a regime change in Iran. The US and its Security alliances want MEK (an exiled group in Iran) to replace the current government. Meanwhile, Chinese onshore/offshore continue to slide below 6.90 against a US Dollar and further 7.00 mark would be a pivotal area where PBoC likely to offload dollars. Amid US-CHINA trade war, China US Treasury holdings fell by $10.4bn to $1.12 tn. Sterling hit 3 months low after sudden emerge of Brexit Party – a non-traditional party whose prime agenda is to exit from EU with or without deal. Mrs. Theresa May lost her ground further after meeting with 1922 committee bench Tories MPs to unlock the exit deal. Theresa May resignation date is still indecisive and simultaneously Mr. Boris Johnson will continues to run campaign to replace Mrs. May, which is highly negative for Pound. Next week EU parliamentary elections and Indian election outcome will be important for G10 and Indian Rupee respectively. USDINR is likely to stay within a range of 69.20 to 70.80

Economic gauge for the next week

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (MAY) contract closed at 70.1375 on 16th May’ 19. The contract made its high of 70.6500 on 16th May’19 and a low of 69.4850 on 16th May’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheUSD/INR is currently at 70.1375

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.55. One can buy at 70.10 for the target of 70.90 with the stop loss of 69.70.

EUR/INR (MAY) contract closed at 78.6500 on 16th May’ 19. The contract made its high of 78.95 on 15th May’19 and a low of 78.30 on 16th May’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 78.6850

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.25. One can sell at 79.00 for a target of 77.80 with the stop loss of 79.40.

GBP/INR (MAY) contract closed at 89.99 on 16th May’ 19. The contract made its high of 91.5900 on 14th May’19 and a low of 89.50 on 16th May’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 90.10

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.60. One can sell at 90.50 for a target of 88.70 with the stop loss of 91.05.

JPY/INR (MAY) contract closed at 63.9800 on 16th May’ 19. The contract made its high of 64.7800 on 13th May’19 and a low of 63.83 on 15th May’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 63.60

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.60. One can sell at 63.90 for a target of 64.85 with the stop loss of 63.40.




Antony Waste plans Rs 350 crore IPO in June

Antony Waste Handling Cell, which processes almost half the garbage generated by Mumbai, will tap the capital market in June with Rs 350-crore initial public offer, which will make it the first municipal solid waste management company to be listed on the bourses in the country. The IPO will include offer for sale by its private equity investor Elliott Management Corp, the world’s largest activist hedge fund, which had first invested in the company almost a decade ago. A small part of the issue — around Rs 43 crore — would be a fresh issue, proceeds from which will be used to pare debt. The Thane-headquartered Antony Waste Handling Cell primarily has two business lines — collection and transport of solid waste for municipal corporations and waste management, which includes municipal solid waste-based waste-to-energy projects. In Mumbai, the company is responsible for processing 5,000 tonnes per day of solid waste, which is half of the total generated by the city. Of this, it processes around 4,000 tonnes a day of waste using bioreactor technology that accelerates the decomposition of organic wastes in a landfill; while 1,000 tonnes are processed using anaerobic digestion. Besides this, the company is handling 2,500 tonnes of solid waste for collection and transport. Antony Waste Handling is among the top five companies active in this space. The company has 14 ongoing projects and has bagged four more recently, which includes Pimpri Chinchwad Project.

Govt targets Rs 300 crore from RailTel IPO by Sep

The government is targeting to raise over Rs 300 crore through an IPO of RailTel Corporation and has asked the telecom infrastructure provider to speed up finalising its books of accounts for 2018-19. The Miniratna PSU is one of the largest neutral telecom infrastructure providers in the country owning a optic fiber network on exclusive Right of Way (RoW) along railway track. The company provides broadband telecom and multimedia network across the country. In December, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved a plan to list six public sector companies, including RailTel Corp. The government last month raised Rs 476 crore by selling 12 per cent stake in Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) through an IPO. In current fiscal, DIPAM is also planning to launch IPOs of 2 other rail CPSEs -- Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp (IRCTC) and Indian Railway Finance Corp (IRFC). The Cabinet in April 2017 approved listing of five railway companies--IRCON International, RITES, RVNL, IRFC, and IRCTC. Of these, IRCON and RITES were listed in 2018-19 and RVNL in April 2019. The government has budgeted to raise Rs 90,000 crore through PSU divestment in current fiscal, compared to Rs 84,972 crore raised in 2018-19.

Goldman Sachs-led SAMHI Hotels looks to raise about Rs 2,000cr via IPO in H2 2019

SAMHI Hotels, which specialises in the development, acquisition and ownership of branded hotels like Marriott International, Sheraton Hotels & Resorts and Hyatt Hotels Corporation, has initiated preliminary discussions with merchant bankers to raise funds via an initial public offer. Other than the Goldman Sachs Group, the hotel asset company counts US private firm Equity International, India-focused GTI Capital Group and the World Bank's investment arm IFC as its major shareholders. In 2011, the company had raised $100 million from Equity International and GTI Capital. In another fundraising round in 2014, it raised $30 million and $21 million from Marriott International and IFC, respectively. Goldman Sachs invested $67 million in 2015. In July 2018, the firm raised Rs 650 crore debt from Piramal Capital & Housing Finance. SAMHI Hotels, founded by Ashish Jakhanwala and Manav Thadani in 2010, has 4,315 rooms across 29 hotels in 14 cities. It operates under brands such as Courtyard by Marriott, Sheraton, Hyatt Regency, Hyatt Place, Fairfield by Marriott, Four Points by Sheraton and Holiday Inn Express.





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Equity MFs see 42% fall in net inflows in a month

Net inflows into equity mutual funds fell a whopping 57 per cent to a 30-month low in April but SIP investors kept the faith with a 17% rise in flows over the year-ago period. Data released by the Association of Mutual Funds of India showed equity inflows for April at Rs 4,608 crore, down 42% when compared with March 2019’s inflows of Rs 9,014 crore. Retail investors stayed steady with systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows growing 2% over March and 17.8% over April last year to ₹8,238.28 crore. AMFI data show 40% of equity flows in April found its way into multi-cap schemes, 20% in smallcap schemes and 10% in mid-cap schemes. Investors appear to have shifted some of the money from large-cap schemes to multi-cap, mid-cap and small-cap schemes. Hybrid schemes too saw inflows, when most categories saw outflows. Arbitrage schemes recorded inflows of Rs 1,529 crore.

DSP Mutual Fund launches DSP Quant Fund

DSP Mutual Fund has launched DSP Quant Fund, an open ended equity scheme that systematically follows investment rules tested over market cycles with minimum human biases. The new fund aims to deliver superior returns as compared to the underlying benchmark – BSE200 TRI - over the medium to long term using rational principles combined with scientific risk management. DSP Quant Fund follows a three step process of elimination, selection and assigning weights. It aims to eliminate long term value detractors, select durable sources of alpha and follow a quantitative weighting approach that aims to ensure adequate diversification through stock and sector concentration limits. The fund starts with BSE200 as the universe. The elimination process screens out companies that have very high debt, excessive price volatility and inefficient capital allocation. Such stocks are removed from the consideration set. The remaining universe is ranked based on multiple factors representing quality, growth and value. This process results in the selection of about 50 companies to whom appropriate weights are allocated quantitatively. The portfolio is rebalanced semi-annually. DSPQuant Fund would be managed by Anil Ghelani. The NFO will open on May 20 and will close on June 03.

BSE launches mobile app for its mutual fund platform

Leading stock exchange BSE has launched 'BSE StAR MF' app to enable more participation and help mutual fund distributors process transactions faster. "BSE StAR MF mobile app supports real-time client registration and paperless transactions, creates and uploads mandate for SIPs, generates the basket of multiple orders, tracks and allows the distributor to analyse his business at his fingertips," the exchange said in a release. The app can be downloaded from Google Play Store. Once the app is downloaded, the sign up can be done by providing the member identification number, it added. The launch of the app would further provide comfort of doing business to our 24,000 members. This app would not only increase their productivity, but would also enable IFAs (Independent Financial Advisors) to take their business anywhere, anytime. BSE StAR MF is the exchange's mutual fund platform which helps distributors purchase and redeem mutual fund units on behalf of their clients.


  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Aditya Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series SO (1099 days)
  • Close-Ended
  • Income
  • 09-May-2019
  • 20-May-2019
  • To generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.

  • Rs. 1,000/- and in multiples of Rs.10/- thereafter
  • Mr. Mohit Sharma
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Axis Fixed Term Plan - Series 106 (296 Days)
  • Close Ended
  • Income
  • 16-May-2019
  • 21-May-2019
  • To generate returns through a portfolio of debt & money market instruments that are maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme. However, there is no assurance or guarantee that the investment objective of the Scheme will be achieved. The Scheme does not assure or guarantee any returns.
  • Rs. 5,000/- and in multiples of Rs 10/- thereafter
  • Mr. Devang Shah
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • UTI - Fixed Term Income Fund Series XXXI-XIV (1111 Days)
  • Close Ended
  • Income
  • 08-May-2019
  • 22-May-2019
  • To generate returns by investing in portfolio offixed income securities maturing on or before the date of maturity ofthe scheme.
  • Rs.5000/-
  • Sunil Patil



Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)
TAX Fund
Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully


Mr. S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) and Mr. Mahesh C Gupta (Vice CMD, SMC Group) with Shri Piyush Goyal Ji (Hon’ble Minister of Railways and Coal, Government of India) & Mr. Tejasvi Surya (MP candidate for Bengaluru South LS Constituency) during the Seminar ‘Indian Economy – The Way Forward 2025’ organized by SMC held on Thursday, 9th May, 2019 at the Civic Centre, New Delhi.

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