In the week gone by, global markets retreated from recent record peaks, due to rapid re-acceleration in coronavirus cases. Markets are digesting improved economic data and rising inflation, closely scrutinizing central bank communication for clues regarding the timing, process and magnitude of policy normalization. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence jumped to its highest level in nearly 1-1/2 years in June, with growing labour market optimism as the economy reopens offsetting concerns about higher inflation. Actually, the global markets were eyeing the release of the US jobs data for June, which is crucial for the US Fed's monetary policy decision. Euro zone inflation eased in June in line with forecasts but is expected to move well above the European Central Bank's target towards the autumn on higher commodity prices. Meanwhile, Confidence at Japanese big manufacturers rose for a fourth straight quarter due to boost to exports and profits from a pick-up in external demand, a key "tankan" survey by the central bank showed. On the flip side, Japan’s industrial output posted the biggest monthly drop in a year in May, as a sharp fall in car production threatened to undermine the country's economic recovery.
Back at home, domestic market also witnessed volatile session due to sustained FII selling and high valuations. Going forward, market may consolidate given the worry over the potential risk from Covid third wave and the commodity price-led inflation and in absence of any fresh trigger. With Covid cases coming down and lockdown getting lifted in many states, the auto industry started to get traction, with companies such as Maruti, Hyundai and Hero Moto regaining volumes. India’s current account ended in a surplus last financial year for the first time in 17 years, due to shrinkage in demand for imported items through the pandemic, although the last quarter ended in a deficit after mobility curbs were withdrawn in phases. The current account balance recorded a surplus of 0.9% of GDP in FY21 against 0.9% deficit in FY20. Another data showed that the country’s eight infrastructure sectors grew an annual16.8% in May, largely due to the low base of last year. Activity in the country’s manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in 11 months in June as the localised lockdowns against the backdrop of the second wave of Covid hurt demand. Registering 48.1 in June, below May’s 50.8, the IHS Mar-kit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was below the critical no-change mark of 50 for the first time since July 2020. Macroeconomic data, the pace of vaccination and global trends would be the major drivers for the domestic equity markets this week. Besides, the progress of monsoon will also be monitored. Market participants would also monitor the movement of Brent crude, investment pattern of foreign institutional investors and the rupee.
On the commodity market front, CRB continued to move northward with its baby steps; to some extent it ignored the rally in dollar index. Better than expected data gave boost to the commodities prices. Entire world was also eyeing on OPEC+ meet apart from job data from US. Crude prices jumped further after a disagreement within OPEC+ delayed a say on output levels, which might cause an inflationary spike in prices, if not resolved. However, its supply fear, which is driving the prices, actual demand is yet to reach the pre covid level. Global demand for aviation fuel stood 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels in early June and may not recover fully for two more years, according to a new study published by the International Energy Forum (IEF). Bullion was trading in a range and expected to be in the same on lack of triggers. NCDEX June Agridex futures have declined to trade near Rs 1,438 from near Rs 1,510 levels seen in the first week of May. Progress in monsoon is not even and now it is concern for all. Base metals may revive this week. RBA Interest Rate Decision, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index of Euro Area and Germany, FOMC Minutes of US, Inflation Rate of Mexico and China, GDP of UK, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Canada etc are few triggers for the market.
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broke-even in FY21. GAIL is optimistic about the future growth potential. The infrastructure is already in place and as CNG adoption increases, the profitability of the region too will rise. The company does not have any immediate plans to list GAIL Gas.
GAIL enjoys a dominant position in the natural gas transmission business with a market share of 70%, company's management has given a thrust to expand in the areas of compressed biogas, ethanol and renewable energy. It is undertaking several iniitiatives to diversify in these areas. The Petrochemical business has shown better performance with more than 100% capacity utilization. The sales increased by 18% to 871 TMT, the Petrochemical plant recorded highest ever production of 813 TMT. It is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.194 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/BVx of 1.70x and FY22 BVPS of Rs.114.23.
stood at Rs 37.31 crore, up 515% over Rs 6.07 crore in Q4 March 2020. It has recorded 33.9% rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 70.62 crore on 2.1% fall in net sales to Rs 889.59 crore in the year ended March 2021 over the year ended March 2020 driven by strong demand recovery in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment and continued growth in demand for tractors.
According to the management of the company, CV sector is expected to do well and the government’s scrappage policy would be a key driver for the pickup in volumes for CVs. Moreover, healthy demand expectation in domestic market on the back of decent growth in tractor industry, revival in USA and European truck industry in next few months, and aggressive cost control would significantly support both top line as well as bottom line in coming quarters. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.522 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/BV of 1.92x and FY22 BVPS of Rs.272.
The stock closed at Rs 750.65 on 02nd July, 2021. It made a 52-week low at Rs. 400.15 on 25th September, 2020 and a 52- week high of Rs. 799 on 16th February, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs. 665.52.
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in uptrend since October, 2020. Apart from this, the stock is forming an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock tried to give the breakout of same but couldn’t hold the high levels but its consolidation from past few weeks indicates that there is a strong spurt in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 740-745 levels for the upside target of 820-840 levels with SL below 700 levels.
The stock closed at Rs. 881.35 on 02nd July, 2021. It made a 52-week low of Rs. 373.25 on 16th July, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 934.25 on 01st April, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs. 721.83.
As we can see on charts that stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, stock is forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on weekly charts which is considered to be bullish. Last week, the stock consolidated in narrow range with positive bias along with high volumes, which indicates buying is aggressive for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 865-875 levels for the upside target of 940-960 levels with SL below 815 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Indian markets snapped its four-session losing streak on Friday and as Nifty indices managed to end above 15700 mark, driven by gains in blue chips like Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank. However on weekly basis both the indices Nifty and Bank nifty settled in red zone. Some lacklustre moves were seen during the week as tug of war between bulls and bears kept traders on indecisive mode. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.96 % while that for put options closed at 20.42%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 12.84%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.27.From derivative front call writers at 15800 strike hold maximum open interest, which should act as immediate strong hurdle for Nifty. However, from technical front Bank Nifty is trying to take support at its 50 days exponential moving average which is placed around 34500 levels. For upcoming week, we expect markets to trade in sideways manner. However, if Nifty manages to break 15800 levels decisively then we might witness 16000 levels in short span. Till then traders should remain focus on stock specific action.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (July) is expected to take support near its 7160, the 200 days moving average, ad supported by lower levels buying it can see higher levels of 7400-7600. The demand for yellow spice is expected to improve amid easing lockdown restrictions across states and it growing demands to build immunity against this pandemic. Researchers in Spain have identified turmeric plant extracts that may be of interest in the search for treatments of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and serve as a basis for future chemical, in vivo, and clinical trials. The analysis revealed that extracts of turmeric exhibited significant inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 3CLPro activity.“The turmeric extracts were, in fact, the most effective among all the plant-based extracts evaluated in the inhibitory activity,” says Guijarro-Real and colleagues. Jeera futures (July) may see selling pressure with every rise facing resistance near 13400-13600. Last week, the counter hit a 5-month low tracking the spot market where lack of strong demand from bulk buyers weighing on prices. In Unjha, the benchmark market, arrivals were pegged at 10,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg). The Exchange quality jeera was sold at 13,700 rupees per 100 kg. Dhaniya futures (July) is likely to consolidate in the range of 6500-6800. In the present scenario, there is a decline in new orders from the South, Bihar, Bengal and Maharashtra. New deals reduced by half as compared to April and May. The demand is not catching up pace even though the pace of functioning of the mandis increased. However, there is hope that the domestic demand will depend on new deals for the month of July. Also, as the buyers of South had procured in May, so their purchase is expected to increase.
Gold prices rebounded after a more than 7% slide in June prompted some traders to buy the metal amid concerns over the Delta variant of the coronavirus, but moves were capped by caution over Friday’s U.S. payrolls data and a strong dollar. Gold posted its biggest monthly loss since November 2016 in June, hurt by a surprise hawkish shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Higher interest rates tend to translate into a higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. But some investors bought gold as a safe-haven as the Delta variant of the coronavirus spread, analysts said, with France delaying the easing of restrictions in the Landes region. The short term gold trend looks bearish we may expect more selling from higher levels. From here gold might need a big selloff in equity markets in order to make another push higher. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he is “very optimistic” about the economy, and while he declined to say when he thinks the Fed should start raising interest rates, he said it could be next year. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, although a Fed rate hike will increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion and dull its appeal. On the technical front, gold fell below the psychologically significant $1,800-per-ounce mark and other key support levels, including the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which is usually viewed as a bearish sign. Ahead in this week, we may continue to witness huge volatility and gold and range would be 45200-48100 whereas, Silver may trade in the range of 67300-71900 levels. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1690-$1800 and Silver may trade in the range of $25.10-$27.40.
Soybean futures (July) is on the verge of surpassing its previous high of 7482 and given a break out to witness 7600-7700 levels. The sentiments are bullish due to slower progress of monsoon as the southwest monsoon winds have languished for the latter third of June, making little progress after June 19.The monsoon, which is in a weak phase now, could lead to the re-sowing of oilseed, if insufficient rainfall continues across the crucial agricultural spots in the country. U.S soybean is on the way to see higher levels of $14.30-15 a bushel. The trade thought soybean acres would rise by 1.36 million, but they fell as compared to 180.25 million acres in 2017’s high. Going ahead, weather is the top focus for traders in the next several weeks as corn pollination, which sets yield potential, will likely begin in about a week for crops in major states. RM Seed futures (July) is looking bullish & can test 7300-7500 in days to come. Overall positive sentiment in oilseeds as well as edible oils, along with lower arrivals in the spot markets amid strong demand for the oilseed may drive the prices higher. Soy oil futures (July) may consolidate ad trade with an upside bias in the range of 1240-1340, while CPO futures (July) is expected to hover in the range of 980-1050. Changes to the duty structures made by both Indonesia and India this week should give palm oil supply a boost. It is being estimated that India's CPO imports over the third quarter to increase by around 150,000 mt per month following the changes. Meanwhile, shipment volumes could be affected by the pandemic situation in India, with vessel owners still hesitant to call at Indian ports.
Crude Oil prices rose, heading for monthly and quarterly gains, after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles were shrinking and an OPEC report foresaw an undersupplied market this year. Both benchmarks are just below highs last reached in 2018, and are set to record their seventh monthly gain in the past eight months. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, slid to their lowest since March 2020. Futures pared gains after the OPEC+, delayed its ministerial meeting until Friday to hold more talks on oil output policy, sources said, after the UAE blocked a plan for an immediate reduction in supply cuts. OPEC+ sources said earlier that the group was expected to increase output by 0.4 million barrels per day a month from August to December 2021. Ahead in the week crude oil prices may continue to trade with bullish bias in the range of 5420-5900 with higher volatility. Natural gas futures climbed over 24% in June on the MCX and touched a high of $3.81/mmBtu on NYMEX, the highest level since December 2018. According to NatGasWeather very hot high pressure continues over the West with highs of 90s to 110s, although with Seattle and Portland cooling into the upper 80s. The Midwest, Plains, and Texas will be comfortable to very warm with highs of 70s to near 90 Fahrenheit as weather systems bring heavy showers. Natural Gas prices recovered but find difficult to break and sustain above its resistance of 220. Natural gas markets1 have been slightly positive after gapping lower, showing signs of hesitancy to get above the $3.00 level. Ahead in week it is expected that prices may continue to trade with bullish bias as range would be 262-288.
Cotton futures (July) may see higher levels of 25200-25500 taking positive cues from slower planting pace and higher demand from mills. Cotton cultivation is down by 48 per cent at 37.14 lh (71.69 lh) as almost all major producing States have seen a sluggish planting. On the supply side, as per the market sources, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has the maximum outstanding stock of around 12 to 13 lakh bales of cotton in the states of North India while, while mills are reportedly running at full capacity. Mills require cotton for the next one-and-a-half to two months' consumption as the arrivals are less as compared to the demand. Therefore, the demand from mills will remain in cotton. Guar seed futures (July) is expected to take support near 4000 and see higher levels of 4200-4250, while guar gum futures (July) is test 6550-6650 on the higher side. The reason being is that conditions are not favourable for southwest monsoon to advance further into remaining parts of Rajasthan during the next five to six days which might slower the progress of sowing. Secondly, the price of WTI Crude oil is near the highest since Sept. 30, 2018. Oil has been rallying all year as the economy recovered, bringing the year-to-date gain to 56%.Chana futures (July) is expected to rebound towards 5200-5300 taking support near 4950 due to sluggish progress of monsoon & sowing of pulses. Area under pulses was 17 per cent lower compared with the year-ago period at 14.58 lh (17.51). States such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have reported higher area, while Maharashtra and Telangana have registered a decline. Pulses acreage in Maharashtra was down by 4.08 lh.
Base metals may trade in the tight range. Demand concern due to rising strength in dollar after a hawkish shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rates outlook may hurt metals by making them more expensive for buyers with other currencies. Growth in China's factory activity dipped to a four-month low in June, while overall Asian manufacturing activity also weakened last month. Copper may trade in the range of 690-740. Rising demand for copper in infrastructure and electrification will cause shortages and higher prices in the coming days. But rising inventories across LME sheds have removed some upward price support for copper. On-warrant stocks surged to 203,875t on 25 June, their highest level since 28 May 2020 and a 222.6% rise from 63,200t registered on 4 May. Chile’s copper output in May dipped 0.4%, to 493,420 tonnes. Zinc may trade in the range of 230-245 while Lead can move in the range of 172-182. Zinc prices may pressurize as mine supply increasing and a slowdown in China’s steel production eases demand from the galvanizing sector. Nickel may trade in the range of 1320-1390. Global demand for nickel is seen increasing by 9.2 percent in 2021 to 2.58 million mt, while supply is expected to climb by 5.8 mt to 2.638 million mt. Of that about two-thirds will be used by stainless steel mills, most of them in China, while electric vehicles account for less than 10% of consumption. Aluminum may move in the range of 190-205. Chinese authorities are juggling the need to cut carbon emissions while also trying to put the brake on a rally in aluminum prices by releasing strategic reserves of the metal.
COPPER MCX (JUL) contract closed at Rs. 714.75 on 01st Jul’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 804.60 on 12th May’2021 and a low of Rs. 690.00 on 21st Jun’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 722.93. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.336.
One can buy above Rs. 720 for a target of Rs. 750 with the stop loss of Rs. 705.
GOLD MCX (AUG) contract closed at Rs. 47039.00 on 01st Jul’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 49721.00 on 01st Jun’2021 and a low of Rs. 44501.00 on 30th Mar’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 47310.80. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.071.
One can sell near Rs. 47500 for a target of Rs. 46100 with the stop loss of Rs. 48100.
REF. SOYA NCDEX (JUL) contract was closed at Rs. 1255.50 on 01st Jul’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 1445.30 on 18th May’2021 and a low of Rs. 1172.50 on 21st Jun’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1257.35. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.565.
One can buy near Rs. 1270 for a target of Rs. 1350 with the stop loss of Rs 1225
CRB continued to move northward with its baby steps; to some extent it ignored the rally in dollar index. Better than expected data gave boost to the commodities prices. Entire world was also eyeing on OPEC+ meet apart from job data from US. The dollar rose to a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday, posting its biggest monthly rise since November 2016, supported by a surprisingly hawkish shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate outlook and concern over the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. The greenback also extended gains after data showed U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in June by 692,000 jobs. Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, supported by lower U.S. inventories, as investors waited for a decision from key producers on whether they would maintain or ease supply cuts in the second half of the year. A wider supply deficit is expected globally in the second half if OPEC+, maintained production cuts while demand rises. Crude saw further jump on Thursday after a disagreement within OPEC+ delayed a say on output levels, which might cause an inflationary spike in prices if not resolved. Base metals traded mostly in sideways fashion with downside bias. China recently released state reserves of copper, aluminum, and zinc as part of its pledge to control a recent surge in commodities prices. However, it couldn’t give much impact on the prices. Nickel was in a range. Nickel demand is backed by strong sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in China. It said that the demand for nickel used in rechargeable batteries will increase to 228,000 mt in 2021 from 193,000 mt in 2020. As per expectation, global nickel market surplus will narrow to 58,000 mt this year from 132,000 mt in 2020 as robust demand from the stainless steel sector will offset the higher output of nickel pig iron (NPI) in Indonesia.
Riding on strong demand from domestic spinning mills, cotton prices have firmed up to reach a decadal high level. The demand from the international market has further supported the local prices of the natural fibre. With reduced cotton crop in Pakistan and Africa, the Indian. Chana prices have dropped by about 20 per cent from peak levels in April to breach the ?5,000 per quintal mark on dip in demand due to Covid second wave coupled with NAFED’s move to liquidate stocks. NCDEX June Agridex futures have declined to trade near Rs 1,438 from near Rs 1,510 levels seen in the first week of May. In order to provide relief to the consumers and to reduce the prices of edible oil, the central government has reduced the duty on CPO by 5 per cent. Cotton oil seeds cake saw a decline from higher side on subdued trend in market mainly weighed on cottonseed oil cake prices.
When India was hit by the first wave of COVID-19 from March to June in 2020, it estimated that India’s growth rate will be contracted deeply in 2020-21. This expectation become true when the economic survey estimated that India’s GVA (Gross value added) for the entire economy will contract by 7.2 percent in 2020- 21, primarily due to a steep decline in the first half of the FY. However in this mayhem caused by the nationwide lockdown, agriculture was the only bright spot and emerged out as saviour for Indian economy. It is estimated that the Gross value added(GVA) for agriculture clocked a positive growth of 3.4 percent at constant (2011-12) prices.
Agricultural growth turns in to export growth
Despite pandemic disruptions, growth in agricultural has turned in to higher agri
products exports. As per Commerce ministry, the export of agriculture and allied
products during 2020-21 grew 17.34 per cent to $41.25 billion. In 2017-18 and 2018-
19, they hovered around $38 billion, thereafter declining to $35.16 billion in 2019-
20. In the first two months of the current fiscal year, there was a 43 per cent jump.
Bumper harvest of certain crops, especially grains, sustained efforts by exporters in challenging times, attractive prices in abroad and push by the government through various initiatives — including a farm export policy, setting up of clusters and easier compliance—boosted exports. Many districts and clusters that were not exporting earlier have started doing it now.
Major export items
India is seeing growth in the export of cereals, non-basmati rice, wheat, millets, maize, and other coarse grains. Exports of non-basmati rice jumped 136% to $4,795.54 million; wheat by 774% to $549 million; and other cereals (millets, maize and other coarse gains) by 238% to $694 million. Other farm commodities that posted substantial increase in exports were sugar (42% to $2,790 million), raw cotton (79% to $1,897 million), oil meals (90% to $1,575 million), fresh vegetables (11% to 721 million) and vegetable oils (254% to $603 million).
Overseas demand for health products
Demand for more health products such millets, ginger turmeric, quinoa is rising. Overseas demand for India’s organic farm products shot up in the pandemic year and exports of such items surged 51% on year in FY21, beating Covid-induced hiccups in the supply chain. Outbound shipments of organic products hit $1,040 million last fiscal, compared with $689 million a year before, aiding a rise in the overall agricultural exports. Even in volume term, exports of organic products grew as much as 39% to 8,88,179 tonnes last fiscal, against 638,998 tonnes in FY20, suggesting robust growth in demand.
Major export destination
The largest markets for India’s agricultural products are the US, China, Bangladesh, the UAE, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Nepal, Iran, and Malaysia. An official statement said that the highest growth has been recorded in Indonesia (102.42 per cent), Bangladesh (95.93 per cent), and Nepal (50.49 per cent).
Demand for Indian cereals was robust in 2020-21, with shipments sent to several countries for the first time, such as rice to countries like Timor-Leste, Puerto Rico, and Brazil. Similarly, wheat was despatched to countries such as Yemen, Indonesia, and Bhutan, and other cereals have been exported to Sudan, Poland, Bolivia.
Indian Rupee lost another half a percent this week amid stronger dollar mode. Post FOMC policy dollar index recorded the biggest monthly jump in the month of June since March 2020 amid hawkish Fed’s stance towards inflation guidance. We think the weakness in rupee may continue and may fall below 75.00 vs dollar in coming days. On the majors, Pound lost 2% in June but is still up 1.6% vs. the US dollar for 2021 after rising delta variant cases faded optimism for quick economic recovery in the UK. For next week, we think GBPINR will continue its weakness. While the euro remains weaker in the wake of a stronger dollar. For the month of June, the euro lost 3% vs. the Greenback and is down 3.4% for the year. ECB policy makers are to hold a special meeting in Germany next week to wrap up the institution’s strategy review – with the central bank planning to put a new definition on price stability. We will remain bearish in euro against rupee.
USD/INR (JUL) contract closed at 74.7500 on 01-Jul-21. The contract made its high of 74.8425 on 01-Jul-21 and a low of 74.4075 on 28-Jun-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 74.2157.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.69. One can buy at 74.75 for the target of 75.75 with the stop loss of 74.25.
GBP/INR (JUL) contract closed at 103.1275 on 01-Jul-21. The contract made its high of 103.7275 on 28-Jun-21 and a low of 102.8725 on 01-Jul-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 103.5848.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.43. One can sell at 103.50 for a target of 102.50 with the stop loss of 104.00.
| 02nd JUL | US job gains expected to pick up |
| 01st JUL | EU jobless numbers drop by most since pandemic hit |
| 01st JUL | World’s leading economies agree global minimum corporate tax rate |
| 01st JUL | Japanese business sentiment hits two-year high |
| 30th JUN | BoE’s Andy Haldane warns over inflation complacency in parting shot |
| 30th JUN | Eurozone inflation dips from two-year high |
| 30th JUN | Economists predict at least two US interest rate rises by end of 2023 |
| 29th JUN | Global tax deal backers battle to win over holdout countries |
| 28th JUN | K productivity crisis less acute than previously thought |
EUR/INR (JUL) contract closed at 88.7400 on 01-Jul-21. The contract made its high of 88.9475 on 28-Jun-21 and a low of 88.3300 on 01-Jul-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 89.0460.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.03. One can sell at 89.00 for a target of 88.00 with the stop loss of 89.50.
JPY/INR (JUL) contract closed at 67.1150 on 01-Jul-21. The contract made its high of 67.6325 on 30-Jun-21 and a low of 67.0225 on 01-Jul-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 67.3307.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.10. One can buy at 66.80 for a target of 67.80 with the stop loss of 66.30.
Specialty chemicals manufacturer Clean Science and Technology will open its initial public offering for bidding on July 2. This would be the second company to launch IPO in July 2021. The price band for offer, which will close on July 9, has been fixed at Rs 880-900 per share, as per the information available in daily newspapers. The company is planning to raise Rs 1,546.62 crore through public issue which consists a complete offer for sale by existing selling shareholders including promoters Ashok Ramnarayan Boob, Krishnakumar Ramnarayan Boob, Siddhartha Ashok Sikchi, and Parth Ashok Maheshwari. The company will not receive money raised through IPO as the money will go to selling shareholders. Investors can put in bids for a minimum of 16 shares and in multiples of 16 equity shares thereafter. Up to 50 percent of the offer is reserved for qualified institutional buyers, 35 percent for retail investors, and 15 percent for non-institutional buyers. Clean Science is among the few companies globally focused entirely on developing newer technologies using in-house catalytic processes, which are ecofriendly and cost competitive. This has enabled the company to emerge as the largest manufacturer globally of certain specialty chemicals in terms of installed manufacturing capacities as of March 31, 2021.
GR Infraprojects, the road engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) company, has decided to open its initial public offering of 1,15,08,704 equity shares for subscription on July 7. The company in consultation with merchant bankers has fixed a price band of Rs 828-837 per equity share, which is 165.60-167.40 times the face value (Rs 5) of the equity shares. It is a complete offer for sale by promoter and promoter group, and investors. Promoters, Lokesh Builders will sell 11,42,400 equity shares through an offer for sale, Jasamrit Premises 1.27 lakh equity shares, Jasamrit Fashions 80,000 equity shares, Jasamrit Creations 56,000 equity shares, and Jasamrit Construction 44,000 equity shares. Among others, India Business Excellence Fund I will offload 64,14,029 equity shares and India Business Excellence Fund 31,59,149 equity shares, which are investors in the company. Other selling shareholder Pradeep Kumar Agarwal will also sell 4,86,126 equity shares through offer for sale. Incorporated in 1995, GR Infraprojects' operations are broadly divided into three categories - civil construction activities; development of roads, highways on a build operate transfer (BOT) basis, and manufacturing activities. Under the manufacturing activities segment, the company processes bitumen, manufactures thermoplastic road-marking paint, electric poles and road signage and fabricate and galvanize metal crash barriers. HDFC Bank, ICICI Securities, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors, SBI Capital Markets, and Equirus Capital are the book running lead managers to the issue.
Exxaro Tiles, a leading manufacturer of vitrified tiles, has received markets regulator Sebi's go-ahead to raise an estimated Rs 150-160 crore through an initial share sale. The initial public offering of up to 1.34 crore equity shares will comprise a fresh issue of up to 1.12 crore equity shares and an offer for sale of up to 22.38 lakh equity shares by Dixitkumar Patel, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). Exxaro Tiles, which filed preliminary IPO papers with Sebi in March, has received the observations from Sebi, as per an update from the regulator on Monday. Sebi's observations is necessary to launch public issues like Initial Public Offer (IPO), Follow on Public Offer (FPO) and Rights Issue. As per the DRHP, the Gujarat-based company may, in consultation with the merchant banker, consider a pre-IPO placement of up to 22 lakh equity shares for cash consideration. The number of equity shares pursuant to the pre-IPO placement will be reduced from the fresh issuance. According to market sources, the company would raise Rs 150-160 crore from the IPO. Proceeds from the fresh issue would be utilised towards repaying/ prepaying of borrowings, fund its working capital equirements and for general corporate purposes. Promoted by Mukeshkumar Patel, Dineshbhai Patel, Rameshbhai Patel and Kirankumar Patel, Exxaro Tiles is primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing and marketing of vitrified tiles used majorly for flooring solutions catering to residential and commercial segments. It currently has an over 2,000 dealers' network across 27 states. Pantomath Capital Advisors has been appointed as the lead manager to the issue.
Medical equipment maker Skanray Technologies has filed preliminary papers with markets regulator SEBI to raise funds through an initial share-sale. The initial public offer (IPO) comprises fresh issue of equity shares, aggregating up to Rs 400 crore and Offer-for-Sale (OFS) of up to 14,106,347 equity shares by promoters and existing shareholders, according to the draft red herring prospectus. The company may consider a pre-IPO placement of shares to the tune of Rs 350 crore, including a fresh issue of share of Rs 150 crore and a share sale by certain existing shareholders of up to Rs 200 crore. Proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilsed towards funding inorganic growth, working capital requirements, investment in subsidiaries and capital expenditure requirements. Skanray Technologies, leading medical device player, is engaged in designing, development, manufacturing and marketing of medical devices. It is a multi-product company offering a diversified portfolio of products, including patient monitoring systems, cardiology devices, respiratory management systems and radiology/ imaging systems, to hospitals, OEMs and for personal medical use/ retail sale globally. Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors Limited, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited and ICICI Securities Limited have been appointed as merchant bankers to advise the company on the IPO.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has temporarily halted the initial public offering (IPO) of Go Airlines (India) Ltd due to a pending enquiry against Bombay Dyeing Manufacturing Company Ltd and its promoters, the Wadias. The IPO by GoAir, now christened GoFirst, has been kept in abeyance, the Sebi website showed . GoAir filed its draft red herring prospectus on May 13 to raise Rs 3,600 crore through a new share sale. Promoter entities, including Bombay Dyeing chairman Nusli Wadia in his personal capacity, own 96.85 percent of Go Air.
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Emkay Investment Managers, an arm of the leading institutional brokerage Emkay Global, is launching a Rs 500-crore alternate investment fund focused on small-caps. The proposed fund is the fourth of the Emkay emerging stars fund, which is a category III AIF and has so far returned 110 per cent to investors since the launch a year ago. The new fund will have a corpus of Rs 500 crore, and will be launched on July 2. The new fund will have a three-year life, and a one-year lock-in and will invest in the best 20-odd stocks in the Nifty midcap index, but those with a focus on the China Plus 1 theme and also those getting/will get the benefits of the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme.
Invesco Mutual Fund announced the launch of its new fund Invesco India Medium Duration Fund - an open-ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 to 4 years. The new fund offer (NFO) will close for subscription on July 13. The fund will be benchmarked to CRISIL Medium Term Debt Index and will be managed by Vikas Garg and Krishna Cheemalapati. The press release mentions that the Invesco India Medium Duration Fund seeks to generate income by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market securities. As per the press release the fund would be constructed following a detailed assessment of liquidity, interest rate view and credit environment. over 75% - 85% of exposure will be to 'AAA' rated corporate and government securities (G-Secs including SDLs).With an aim to enhance the portfolio yield, the fund will invest 15% - 25% of the net assets in selective 'AA' category corporate bonds and will utilize its in-house proprietary credit assessment framework to select such issuers.
SBI Mutual Fund has announced the launch of SBI ETF Consumption, an open-ended scheme tracking Nifty India Consumption Index. The New Fund Offer opens on June 30 and closes on July 14. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns that closely correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking error. The minimum application amount (during the NFO period) required is of Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The scheme would invest a minimum 95% and maximum 100% of its assets in securities covered by Nifty India Consumption Index with up to 5% in equity derivatives and up to 5% in money market instruments (including commercial papers, commercial bills, treasury bills, triparty repo, Government securities having an unexpired maturity up to one year, call or notice money, certificate of deposit, usance bills, and any other like instruments as specified by the Reserve Bank of India from time to time) and units of liquid mutual fund.
Navi Mutual Fund, owned by Flipkart co-founder Sachin Bansal, is set to launch a Nifty-tracking index fund that will cost the lowest in the segment to invest. The new entrant into the domestic mutual fund industry will charge an expense ratio of 0.06% for the index fund even as many established players more than doubled this annual fee. The NFO will open on July 3 and close for subscriptions on July 12. Currently, the Nifty fund operated by ICICI Prudential MF and Motilal Oswal MF that charges 0.1% as the expense ratio is the cheapest fund tracking the benchmark index.
ITI Mutual Fund has launched the ITI Dynamic Bond Fund. The NFO opens on June 25 and closes on July 9, 2021. The minimum application amount is Rs 5,000 and multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The bond fund will be benchmarked against CRISIL Dynamic Debt Index. The objective of the fund is to maximise returns through an active management of portfolio comprising of debt and money market instruments. The fund will follow a strategy that is structured in a manner that offer investors the benefit of dynamic fund management through flexible asset allocation and active duration management.
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