Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by the global market remained highly volatile amidst recession fear, mixed U.S corporate earnings and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Fed Chair said 2023 would be a year of "significant declines in inflation." This renewed investor hopes for less aggressive monetary policy that wavered after a strong U.S. jobs report last week. However, improved U.S job data and inversion of 2-year and 10-year yield curve triggered fresh warnings on the economy from the bond market weighed on investor sentiment. On the earning front, according to IBES data from Refinitiv earnings are expected to have declined yearover-year in the fourth quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, the rating agency Fitch has revised its forecast for Chinese economic growth in 2023 to 5.0% from 4.1% previously as consumption and broader activities are recovering faster than initially anticipated after the end of the zero-COVID regime.

Back at home, investor’s sentiment towards risky assets improved after Fed chairman Jerome Powell dovish statement. In the three-day monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India raised the key policy repo rate by 25 basis points and said it remained focused on the withdrawal of accommodation. The policy decision was on expected line which led to value buying however, continued selling by the FIIs kept the market highly volatile. During the month so far, the FIIs net selling stood at Rs. 6,872.23 crore. In the policy statement RBI reinstated that high frequency indicators suggest that economic activity has remained strong in Q3 and Q4 of current financial year and raised the real GDP growth from 6.8% to 7% in FY23. It also lowered the retail inflation by 20bps to 6.5% for FY23 and has set the CPI inflation target for FY24 at 5.3%. On the back of strong domestic prospects but slowdown in global activities, the RBI projected real GDP growth of 6.4% in FY-24. Going forward investors would track global factors and comments from various central banks as risk of recession resurfacing and inflation slowing down.

On commodity market front, after two week fall, CRB recovered to some extent. In energy counter, crude oil and natural gas were traded in a range with downside bias. Crude oil can see a pause on mix triggers and can trade in a range of 6200-6650. Natural Gas is yet to make bottom. Closing above 210 can bring more technical buying upto 240-250. Bullion counter may trade under pressure amid bounce in dollar index. Gold and silver can see the downside of 55800 and 63000 respectively. Cotton futures are relaunching on 13th of Feb with some changes in contract specification. Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Australia, GDP Growth Annualized Prel of Japan, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of UK, GDPGrowth Rate, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of UK, Core Inflation Rate, Retail Sales and Inflation Rate, Building Permits Prel and PPI of US, are some key data which one should watch while trading in commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das-headed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent from 6.25 per cent. Repo Rate (RR) is the rate at which the central bank lends money to commercial banks or financial institutions, public or private, in India against government securities. Das said that four MPC members voted in favour of the repo rate revision versus two members. The central bank said that its policy stance remains focused on the withdrawal of accommodation.
Automobile
  • Mahindra & Mahindra signed an MoU with Telangana government to expand its existing Zaheerabad Plant in Medak district for development and production of electric three- and four-wheelers. The SUV maker will spend Rs 1,000 crore over eight years on this front.
Oil & Gas
  • GAIL (India) signed an advanced pricing agreement with Central Board of Direct Taxes to determine the transfer pricing margin payable on its longterm LNG sourcing contract from the U.S. for the period of five years.
Telecom
  • Bharti Airtel and Vultr announced a strategic partnership to offer cloud solutions to enterprises in India. Airtel will offer Vultr’s extensive suite of cloud solutions to its enterprise customers, especially those in the digital space.
Information Technology
  • TCS announced an expansion of its long-standing partnership with Phoenix Group, UK’s largest long-term savings and retirement provider, to digitally transform the latter’s ReAssure business.
  • Infosys has announced collaboration with GE Digital to accelerate grid transformation for the utilities sector. Both will follow a joint go-to-market approach to deliver value added solutions for grid related products and services, for their new and existing clients.
Engineering
  • Larsen & Toubro received an order worth Rs 2,585 crore from Ministry of Defence for supply for 41 sets of modular bridges for the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army.
  • Engineers India has received an EPCM services contract for setting up gas based Greenfield 4,000 TPD urea and 2300 TPD ammonia complex. It has also received orders from ADNOC Offshore, Abu Dhabi, UAE for minor engineering works for offshore facilities and a feasibility study for crude storage tanks at terminal facilities.
Chemicals
  • Navin Fluorine’s subsidiary Navin Fluorine Advanced Sciences commenced commercial production at the multi-purpose plant and plant for manufacture of a key agro-chemical intermediate in Dahej, Gujarat.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Aurobindo Pharma’s step-down subsidiary Aurolife Pharma has received approval from US Food and Drug Administration to manufacture & market the Diclofenac sodium topical solution. Diclofenac sodium topical solution is used in treatment of the pain of osteoarthritis of knee(s). The product is expected to be launched in Q1FY24, and has an estimated market size of around $487 million for 12 months endingDecember 2022, according to IQVIA.
Cement
  • Ultratech Cement has commissioned a 1.5 mpta brownfield cement grinding unit at Jharsuguda, Odisha, taking the Company’s total cement capacity in the state of Odisha to 4.1 mtpa.

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

CORPORATE ACTIONS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US initial jobless claims rose to 196,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 183,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 190,000.
  • US wholesale inventories inched up by 0.1 percentin December after climbing by 0.9 percentinNovember.The uptick matched economist estimates.
  • US trade deficit widened to $67.4 billion in December from a revised $61.0 billion in November. Economists had expected the deficit to widen to $68.5 billion from the $61.5 billion originally reported for the previous month.
  • Consumer prices in China were up 0.8 percent on month in January. That exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.7 percent following the flat reading in December.
  • Producer prices in Japan were flat on month in January. That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.3 percent and down from the upwardly revised 0.7 percent gain in December (originally 0.5 percent).
  • The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.7 percent on year in January, coming in at 1,213.5 trillion yen. That was shy of expectations for in increase of 3.0 percent and down from 2.9 percent in December.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

INDIAN HOTELS COMPANY LIMITED
CMP: 323.55
Target Price: 375
Upside: 16%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 348.70/180.75
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 45957.05
  • EPS (Rs.) 5.14
  • P/E Ratio (times) 62.95
  • P/B Ratio (times) 6.39
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.14
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) and its subsidiaries bring together a group of hospitality brands and businesses, which include Taj, SeleQtions, Vivanta, and Ginger. IHCL has a portfolio of 252 hotels including 65 under development globally across 4 continents, 11 countries and in over 100 locations.
  • The company has reached a milestone of 250+ hotels in its portfolio by signing a total of 30 hotels in FY 2022-23. It strengthened its portfolio with opening of 14 new hotels in FY 2022-23 with four hotels each under Taj and SeleQtions brand, and three each under Vivanta and Ginger. Introduced over 15 new destinations including Manali, Dharamshala, Raipur, Vrindavan and Jammu in 2022.
  • According to the management of the company, strong demand in third quarter, both leisure and business hotels in key domestic markets reported occupancy of over 70% and a rate growth of 27% as compared to pre-COVID levels. The company said it maintains leadership position across key markets with revenue per available room (RevPar) penetration index in excess of 130%.
  • On the development front, the company plans to explore some properties in areas such as Mumbai, Alibaug and Southern markets for acquisition. It is also focusing on the North East market by leveraging synergies with the Tata group i.e. opening of Ama (homestays) in tea estates .
  • It has reported Q3 results with a record level on all key parameters, revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, PAT, strong free cash flows and being net cash positive. Net sales jumped 51.7% to Rs 1,685.80 crore during the quarter as against Rs 1,111 in corresponding quarter last year and EBITDA jumped 90% to Rs 655 crore in Q3 FY23 as against Rs 344 crore in Q3 FY22. EBITDAmargin stood at 37.6% inQ3 FY23, up 719 bpsYoY.
  • The management of the company expects to achieve margin of 33% and the company is expecting to open 17-18 new hotels in FY23, while it is targeting to open 40+ hotels in the next two and half years.

Risk

  • Economy slowdown
  • Geopolitical tension

Valuation

The company continued to report strong operational and financial performances across its businesses in Q3FY23 resulting in an all-time high PAT and according to the management of the company, the demand outlook for the sector in 2023 remains robust on the back of sporting events such as world cup hockey and cricket, global events like the ongoing G20 and recovery of inbound and corporate travel. The company with its vast network of hotels spread across 125+ cities is well positioned to cater to this rising demand. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.375 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on a target P/BVx of 5.90x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.63.51.

P/B Chart

SUNDRAM FASTENER LIMITED
CMP: 1000.45
Target Price: 1162
Upside: 16%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1029.00/674.80
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 21022.29
  • EPS (Rs.) 22.60
  • P/E Ratio (times) 44.27
  • P/B Ratio (times) 7.33
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.65
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The Company over 60 years has diversified product line, world-class facilities in 3 countries. The product range consists of high-tensile fasteners, powder metal components, cold extruded parts, hot forged components, radiator caps, automotive pumps, gear shifters, gears and couplings, tappets, iron powder, powertrain components and sub-assemblies. 70% of the business comes from OE business and aftermarket and about 30% comes from exports.
  • In the nine month period ending December 2022, the revenue grew by 18.3% YoY augmented by an uptick in demand from the global customers. Even the aftermarket has grown. The net profit for the nine months period ended December 31, 2022 was at Rs 372.88 crores as against net profit of Rs. 354.40 Crores during the same period in the previous year. It raised prices in the aftermarket in November as well as in December to compensate for the raw material price increase.
  • According to the management going forward the company would focus on a diversified product range from EVs to non-autos, including aerospace, defence, wind, solar, etc., given growing business opportunities in these non-auto parts.
  • The Company has bagged the biggest Electric Vehicle (EV) contract worth $250 Million from a leading global manufacturer for the supply of sub-assemblies for its EV platform. The production is expected to start in 2024 peaking in 2026. It is a 6-year program where it will be developing parts and assemblies for sedans and SUVs. The company expects to receive more RFQs from the same customer and from other customers for these kinds of products.
  • The Company plans to invest Rs 200 crore to support the new orders under the six-year long purchase package involving the supply of shaft sub-assemblies and drive gear sub-assemblies. According to the management the Sri City factory to make products or hybrid and EV vehicles is expected to provide a boost to its EV business.
  • To grow its export business, the company is planning to invest more than Rs. 100 crore in the next two years.
  • The company plans to make additional investments of Rs. 300 crore over the next two years in ramping up capacity in wind energy business.

Risk

  • Increase in commodity prices
  • Geo-political issues

Valuation

Many new products introduced by the company have started growing well, moreover, it plans to diversify its product into growing business opportunities in these non-auto parts indicates future growth visibility. The domestic market has witnessed significant growth in commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, and tractors in which it has presence auger well for the company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 1162 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year average P/BVx of 6.78x and FY24 BVPS1 of Rs.171.4.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

MPHASIS LIMITED (MPHASIS)

The stock closed at Rs 2153.35 on 10th February, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1896.05 on 19th December, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 3465.80 on 31st Mar, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2213.

Stock has been beaten down sharply in last one year as prices have slipped back towards 1900 level from 3400 levels. From last few weeks somehow stock has managed to build support around its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts as recovery has been witnessed in prices from lower levels. Currently stock can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern. The rising delivery volumes at lower levels along with positive divergences on secondary oscillators points towards further recovery in stock. Therefore, one can buy stock in the range of 2130- 2150 levels for the upside target of 2470-2480 levels with SL below 1950 levels.

TATA MOTORS LIMITED (TATAMOTORS)

The stock closed at Rs 445.85 on 10th February, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs 366.20 on 12th May, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs.511.50 on 17th Feb, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 422

After testing 380 levels on a downside, the stock recovered sharply from its lows and once again managed to regain a momentum above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts. At current juncture, the stock has formed an “Inverted Head & Shoulder” pattern on daily charts and also given a breakout above the neckline of the pattern formation. The positive move after a breakout is expected to carry in coming weeks as well. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 440-445 levels for the upside target of 510-515 levels with SL below 400 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

In the week gone by, Nifty and Bank Nifty closed flat to positive with marginal gains as stock specific movement was seen in the market. Buying interest was seen in IT and midcap stocks, whereas selling pressure continued to mount on Auto and metal stocks. From the derivative front, Nifty’s highest call open interest concentration was seen at 18000 strike, followed by 18200 strike. Whereas on put side, the highest concentration in open interest held at 17800 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.72% while that for put options closed at 12.52%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 13.04%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.16 lower from previous week. Technically nifty has managed to close above it's 20 days exponential moving average on weekly charts and is expected to remain in range as far prices holds below 18000-18050 zone. On downside, 17700-17600 zone is likely to provide some support to the markets. We expect that in upcoming week index is likely to remain in range while stock specific moves likely to carry on.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 09th February, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric NCDEX Apr futures are expected to trade sideways to down due to muted spot demand. Commencement of arrivals of new crop in southern region mainly in Telangana kept market sentiments down. Arrival pressure has surged up in Nizamabad as about 6000-7000 bags arriving on daily basis. Demand has been subdued as quality of new crop is not up to the mark wherein stockists are busy in releasing their old stocks. Arrivals are also expected to improve in major growing districts in Maharashtra that will keep prices under pressure. However, reports of fall in area under turmeric in Maharashtra are likely to cap the major downfall in prices. Turmeric Apr contract is likely to trade in the range of 6700-7500 levels.

Jeera NCDEX Mar futures are likely to trade down due to sluggish buying by millers. Improved crop condition in Gujarat and Rajasthan will result into upward revision in production. Total Jeera production may vary in between 6- 7 lakh tonnes as per industry estimates against the 7.25 lakh tonnes of previous year. Total supply has still down and most of the spice millers are sitting with tight stocks that will cap the major downfall in the prices. Pace of new crop will decide the upcoming trend in jeera. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 30000-35500 levels.

Dhaniya NCDEX Apr prices are likely to trade sideways to down due to higher production outlook for upcoming season. Demand has been subdued as major buyers and spices millers are avoiding bulk buying in wake of commencement of new crop in major mandies. Dhaniya crop is expected to increase up to 180- 190 lakh bags wherein Rajasthan will contributes about 20-25 lakh bags and Madhya Pradesh is expected to produce 65-70 lakh bags as per the industry estimates. There are reports of yield losses in Rajasthan due to sharp fall in temperature during Jan’23 that will cap the major downfall in prices. Dhaniya NCDEX Apr Prices are likely to trade in range of 6500-7900.

BULLIONS

Gold prices erased all gains of the previous week as investors remained wary of impending interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve to tame high inflation. Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher rates tend to dull the appeal of bullion, which pays no interest. In previous week, stronger than expected U.S. job numbers have contributed to expectations that the Fed will end up concluding its rate-hike cycle above 5%, while rate-cut expectations for the second half of this year have evaporated and driven gold lower. Market participants are now expecting the Fed’s target rate to peak at 5.153% in July from a current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that “it just makes sense to steer more deliberately” with any further rate increases and that the decline in inflation seen so far had been “distorted” by some falling goods prices. Barkin’s comments came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell and several other policymakers this week indicated that interest rates might need to move higher than expected. Gold prices have been in a consolidation mode and struggling for direction for the past several days. On Comex, Gold faced strong resistance near $1960 and now trading near support zone $1840. If $1840 is taken out then $1770 would be the important levels to watch for. Silver on Comex trade with bearish bias and possible trading range would be $19.800-$23.500. Ahead in the week Gold prices may continue to trade with bearish bias and the possible trading range would be 54800-57900 levels. Silver may trade in the range of 63000-69500 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude Oil posted positive move throughout the week as investors felt more comfortable with risk a day after the Federal Reserve chair's remarks eased concerns about future interest rate hikes. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated oil cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. The reduction in risk appetite that had spun largely off Fed Chairman Powell’s comments yesterday, applies equally to industrial commodities such as oil in providing a significant headwind against further major price advances. But the rally paused after the news of earthquake that devastated parts of Turkey and Syria but the oil infrastructure appeared to have escaped serious damage. The earthquake, which has killed more than 19,000 people, initially sent oil prices higher on the prospect that the disaster would seriously damage pipelines and other infrastructure and displace crude from the global market for an extended period. A strong U.S. jobs report raised fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve would continue to aggressively hike rates to cool inflation, pressuring risk assets like oil and equities. The prospect of stronger demand from China provided some support to oil prices, as the world's second largest oil consumer ended more than three years of stringent zero-COVID policy. Ahead in the week, crude prices will continue to trade higher and the possible trading range would be 5850-6900. A 46% drop in natural gas prices this year is rippling across the U.S. shale patch, threatening to slow drilling and chill dealmaking in a move unthinkable six months ago as global demand soared. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade in the wide range of 180-220 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias as soft global demand may weigh on sentiment despite the latest supply disruptions. Demand in top consumer China is yet to pick up, while looming global recession risks may also weigh on investors' sentiment. China's January factory gate prices fell more than expected, suggesting that flashes of domestic demand that had stoked consumer prices after the zero-COVID policy ended were not strong enough to rekindle upstream sectors. Copper may trade in the range of 750-780. China's MMG Ltd said its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru was able to secure critical supplies, enabling it to continue production at a reduced rate after road blockades prevented arrival of key raw materials. Copper inventories are rising in SHFE warehouses and the import premium in China remains subdued, preventing prices from a stronger rally. Zinc can trade in the range of 260-285 levels. Lead can move in the range of 179-190 levels. Aluminum may trade in the range of 205-225 levels. The counter may trade in downward pressure as the US is preparing to slap a 200 per cent tariff on Russian-made aluminium as soon as this week. Commodity trader Glencore has deposited more than 100,000 tonnes of aluminium in London Metal Exchange registered warehouses in the South Korean port of Gwangyang, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Glencore also delivered Russian aluminium into LME warehouses in Gwangyang in October, according to sources. Steel long (Feb) is likely to trade in the range of 45000-48000 on NCDEX with bearish bias. Rising risks of a global recession and slowing external demand with new steel capacity may continue to pressurise on prices.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Kapas NCDEX Apr prices are expected to trade mixed to higher due to improved demand. Most of the ginners are ruling with tighter inventory due to below normal arrivals of cotton at major trading centers. Cotton arrival in the country’s north zone, which includes Punjab, Haryana, Ganganagar circle, and lower Rajasthan, was down by at least 10 lakh bales compared to the corresponding figures till January 31 last season. According to data provided by Indian Cotton Association Limited (ICAL), 26.17 lakh bales arrived this season till January 31, as against 36.84 lakh bales last season in the corresponding period. In wake of supply tightness in physical market, Indian government has allowed duty-free import of 3 lakh bales of cotton from Australia. Kapas Apr NCDEX prices are likely to trade in range of 1570-1700.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Mar futures are likely to trade mixed to down due to muted demand at physical market. Demand in cattle feed industry has been down wherein most of stockists are going for the hand to mouth buying in wake of increased supplies of mustard. Mustard seed oil cake is used as substitute of cotton seed oil cake in northern part of India. Supplies of cotton seed oil cake is likely to higher as farmers are holding heavy stocks of cotton in anticipation of better price outlook. Prices are likely to trade in range of 2600-2850.

Guar seed Mar futures are expected to trade on weaker note due to limited buying in local market. Season export demand of gum is likely to be limited in March that will keep major buyers away from bulk buying of guar. However, losses are looking limited in guar due to reduced supply in local market. Arrivals have also dropped at major trading centers as farmers are holding in expectation of further rise in prices. Technically, Guar seed prices will honor the support of 5650 and will honor the resistance of 6300 in near term. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11500-14000.

Mentha oil Feb contract is likely to trade sideways to higher on improved demand outlook. Export demand of menthol has improved that is likely to support the firmness in prices. Major focus will be on upcoming sowing numbers as sowing is likely to commence in western UP after the harvest of rabi crop. Supplies have been tighter due to offseason period of arrivals. Prices may witness upside recovery with support of 965 and will honor the resistance of 1030 in near term.

Castor seed Mar prices are likely to trade down due to improve supplies with advancement of harvesting activities. Sluggish export demand is still a major concern for castor oil traders as domestic stocks are surging up with fall in export. Castor oil export has slumped 16% Y-o-Y to 543.4 thousand tonnes during Jan-Nov’22 due to slowdown in economic activities in China. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 6700-7300.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: FEB
M*.High: 790.80
M*.Low: 702.40

It closed at Rs. 775.90 on 09th Feb 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 746.82. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.566. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.765 for a target of Rs. 790 with the stop loss of 755

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: FEB
M*.High: 6781.00
M*.Low: 6007.00

It closed at Rs. 6422.00 on 09th Feb 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6481.93. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.697. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 6670 for a target of Rs. 6250 with the stop loss of 6890.

GUARSEED NCDEX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: 6531.00
M*.Low: 4730.00

It closed at Rs. 5912.00 on 09th Feb 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 5912.15 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.430. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 6000 for a target of Rs. 5750 with the stop loss of 6120.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • India's fuel demand was about 4.6% lower than the previous month at 18.7 million tonnes in January, data from Indian oil ministry showed.
  • Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das, in the Monetary Policy Committee meeting announcements, said that GDP is expected to grow at 6.4 per cent for 2023-24.
  • RBI raises repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% from 6.25%.
  • Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $2.98 billion in January, down 21.6% from a year earlier, the central bank said.
  • India’s basmati rice exports surged 17 per cent in volume during the first three quarters of the current fiscal: APEDA.
  • Arecanut imports double in terms of volume and value in first 8 months of current fiscal. India imported 6,1452.21 tonnes of arecanut until November, compared to against 25,978.98 tonnes during the entire financial year of 2021–22: Union Minister of State for Commerce and Industry.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

After two week fall, CRB recovered to some extent. In the energy counter, crude oil and natural gas were traded in a range with downside bias. Crude oil prices extended gain as crude loading disruptions in Turkey and optimism over China's recovering demand continued to buoy sentiment. Hopes for a quick rebound in demand from China also supported oil prices as the world's second-largest oil consumer ended more than three years of a stringent zero-COVID policy involving city-wide lockdowns and mass testing in December. However, increasing crude inventories in the United States put pressure on oil gains. Stocks rose last week to their highest since June 2021 to 455.1 million barrels. Later on it saw profit booking. Natural gas erased all the gains proving that the bottom is not yet formed for a market that’s lost 65% in just two months. An unusually warm start to the 2022/23 winter has led to considerably less heating demand in the United States versus the norm, leaving more gas in storage than initially thought. Bullion rally appeared to be tired as traders weighed hawkish signals on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted recent progress against inflation; he warned that a strong jobs market and sticky inflation could invite more rate hikes. Silver was weaker than gold. Base metals traded in red. Despite demand in major copper importer China is expected to perk up this year, traders have begun selling the red metal on concerns over a potential recession in the rest of the world. US is considering raising the import tariff on Russianmade aluminum to 200%, as it seeks to ramp up pressure on Moscow over its war in Ukraine, but a decision has not been made yet. It stimulated selling pressure in aluminum. Zinc prices slid to a three-week low after a surge in inventories and a spike in the dollar as metals demand in China remained lackluster despite the world’s top metals consumer having scrapped covid-19 controls. Zinc stocks on the LME have sunk to the lowest levels since 1989 but have soared in China. Inventories in warehouses registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange have more than doubled to 91,616 tonnes since Jan. 20. LME copper shed 1% to $9,039 a tonne, the lowest since Jan. 11, despite worries that disruptions in major copper producing regions Latin America and Africa could tighten supply.

In agri, spices were the main attraction. Jeera prices rose again. There is a possibility of some loss in cumin due to frost in the past day in Rajasthan. Turmeric prices were remaining under pressure due to subdued domestic demand. Market is running with adequate stocks wherein supply of new crop has also improved in recent days. Guar ignored the upside rally in crude oil and closed in red zone due to muted domestic demand. However, losses are likely to be limited due to limited supplies at major trading centers.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Cotton…….the white gold

Cotton is one of the oldest natural fibers under human cultivation. Cotton is also one of the most used (almost 70%) natural fibers, with consumers from all classes and nations wearing and using cotton in a variety of applications. It is referred as “white gold” indicating the importance in human life. Nowadays Cotton prices have already reached record levels in the domestic market and in the international market too and farmers are also benefited from this. India is the world's biggest producer of cotton in the world.

India's Multi Commodity Exchange will relaunch cotton futures contracts on Feb. 13, the exchange said in a statement. The Exchange has decided to modify the contract specification for Cotton Futures contract from April 2023 and onwards expiry contracts. The exchange would initially launch three contracts expiring in April, June and August.

The revised specifications of Cotton Futures Contract are as follows:

Cotton Production & Consumption in India

India is the world's biggest producer of cotton in the world. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) lowered the cotton crop output estimate in the current season that started on October 1, 2022, by 9.25 lakh bales for the 2022-23 season to 330.50 lakh bales as production is expected to decline in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Considering the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season on October 1, 2022, and the imports for the season estimated at 12 lakh bales, the cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2022-23, up to September 30, 2023, is estimated at 374.39 lakh bales.

The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 300 lakh bales, while the exports at 30 lakh bales. The carry-over stock which was earlier estimated at 53.64 lakh bales is now estimated at 44.39 lakh bales, CAI added.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee faced its worst week since midDecember 2022 to hit a low of 82.75 after the dollar gained its momentum after the US monthly jobs data showed the biggest surprise since early 2021. Accordingly, the dollar index hit just below 104.00 before retreating to 103.00 as well. Markets are pricing a 25-bps hike in each of the Fed's next two meetings. However, the latest RBI policy this week gave some support to the rupee amid maintaining a hawkish stance. Going forward the US monthly CPI data is likely to be the key trigger for the rupee move in the coming days. We think the USDINR pair is likely to stay in a range between 82.10 - 82.70 on a weekly basis. On majors, the Japanese yen somehow reversed its losses after the Nikkie reported that the Japanese government was set to nominate Kazuo Ueda as the BoJ's next governor. On majors, despite sluggish economic data from the UK the British economy recorded zero growth in the last quarter of 2022, and on monthly basis, the GDP contracted by minus half percent. The pound is likely to face weakness as the underlying is diverted from the ongoing price action. We think GBPUSD may head below 1.20 while EURUSD may trade in a range-bound manner between 1.0600 - 1.0800 in the coming days.

USDINR (FEB)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 81.90 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 83.06 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.22 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.35.

One can buy near 82.50 for the target of 83.50 with the stop loss of 82.00.

GBPINR (FEB) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 99.22 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 101.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 100.24. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.78.

One can buy near 99.90 for the target of 100.90 with the stop loss of 99.40.

EURINR (FEB) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 87.77 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 90.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 88.78. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.70.

One can sell near 88.80 for the target of 87.80 with the stop loss of 89.30.

JPYINR (FEB) ) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 62.15 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 63.65 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 63.06. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.95.

One can buy near 63.15 for the target of 64.15 with the stop loss of 62.65.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

Sebi returns Go Digit's IPO papers; company to refile

Markets regulator Sebi has returned the preliminary IPO papers of Go Digit General Insurance, backed by the Canada-based Fairfax Group. The company is looking to refile the documents with certain updates. The company had filed the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in August 2022 to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). Go Digit's proposed IPO comprises fresh issuance of equity shares worth ₹1,250 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of 10.94 crore equity shares by a promoter and existing shareholders. In the OFS, Go Digit offers to sell 10,94,34,783 equity shares. Cricketer Virat Kohli and his wife and actor Anushka Sharma are among the investors in the firm.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

PGIM India Mutual Fund launches PGIM India CRISIL IBX Gilt Index - Apr 2028 Fund

PGIM India Mutual Fund announced the launch of PGIM India CRISIL IBX Gilt Index - Apr 2028 Fund, a predominantly G-Sec Index Fund. The PGIM India CRISIL IBX Gilt Index - Apr 2028 Fund is open for subscription and it will close on February 16. The fund will be managed by Puneet Pal, Head – Fixed Income, PGIM India Mutual Fund, and co-managed by Bhupesh Kalyani, Fund Manager, PGIM India Mutual Fund. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns that correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the CRISIL IBX Gilt Index - April 2028 (before fees and expenses), subject to tracking errors. The weightage of the G-Sec securities and T-bills Securities in this index fund will be 98% and 2%, respectively. The fund will mature on April 05, 2028. All G-Sec securities selected will have a maturity date from September 6, 2027 to April 5, 2028. The index will be reviewed and rebalanced on a 6 monthly basis.

Mirae Asset Mutual Fund launches Mirae Asset Flexi Cap Fund

Mirae Asset Mutual Fund has launched Mirae Asset Flexi Cap Fund. The NFO opens for subscription on February 3 and closes on February 17. The fund will be managed by Vrijesh Kasera. The minimum initial investment in the fund will be Rs 5,000 and multiples of Re 1 thereafter. Mirae Asset Flexi Cap Fund will be benchmarked against the NIFTY50 TRI. The flexi cap fund will invest across market capitalisation—large cap, mid cap and small cap, thus offering a large investment horizon to help investors capture the growth curves across sectors. The fund house said that the scheme will invest in a mix of value and growth stocks and diversify across ideas, sectors, caps and risk. According to the press release, Mirae Asset Flexi Cap Fund is ideal for those investors who are looking at remaining invested for a long term - 5 years and above, investors who are in the process of building a core portfolio and new investors who are looking to invest across market cap i.e. Large cap, midcap and small cap stocks using a single fund.

Nippon India Mutual Fund launches Nifty SDLPlus G-Sec – Jun 2029 Maturity 70:30 Index Fund

Nippon India Mutual Fund has announced the launch of Nippon India Nifty SDL Plus G-Sec – Jun 2029 Maturity 70:30 Index Fund, an open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund with a relatively high-interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk. The New Fund Offer will open on February 6 and close for subscription on February 14. The scheme will be managed by Vivek Sharma & Siddharth Deb. The new fund will track the Nifty SDL Plus G-Sec Jun 2029 70:30 Index. The minimum investment amount would be Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The scheme will have two Plans: Regular and Direct. Each Plan offers growth option and income distribution cum capital withdrawal (IDCW) option. Index shall mature on June 29, 2029 and hence has a defined maturity date. According to the press release, the investment objective of the scheme is to provide investment returns corresponding to the total returns of the securities as represented by the Nifty SDL Plus G-Sec Jun 2029 70:30 Index before expenses, subject to tracking errors. The Scheme will predominantly invest into State Development Loans (SDLs) and Government Securities (G-Secs) which have highest safety. The Scheme will invest 95% to 100% in State Development Loans (SDLs) representing the SDL portion of Nifty SDL Plus G-Sec Jun 2029 70:30 Index and Government Securities representing the G-Sec portion of Nifty SDL Plus G-Sec Jun 2029 70:30 Index. The Scheme may also invest in money market instruments. The fund follows a passive strategy of management with endeavor to generate similar returns to its benchmark. The Scheme will follow a Buy and Hold investment strategy in which existing SDLs & G-Secs will be held till maturity unless sold for meeting redemptions requirements.

Axis AMC looks to garner Rs 3,000 crore from business cycles fund

Leading fund house Axis Mutual Fund is looking to garner Rs 3,000 crore from the new fund offer, Axis business cycles fund, which will open for subscription from February 2. The open-ended equity scheme will follow business cycle-based investing theme, the fund house said. The new fund offer, which will be managed by Ashish Naik, opens on February 2 and closes on 16th. The fund will track the Nifty 500 stocks. According to the fund house, the economy is looking up now and is at the cusp of a new capex cycle. It cited the stronger balance sheets, robust domestic demand and increased focus on production linked incentive (PLI) schemes leading to more capacity addition along with the widespread digitalisation offering as the reason for the optimism. The new fund will have a cycle-driven portfolio, Iyengar said, adding that in expansionary times, it will focus on building a cyclical sector-based portfolio of companies which will benefit from an impending favourable upcycle.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 09/02/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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