2019: Issue 681, Week: 29th April - 3rd May

A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only)




From The Desk Of Editor


n the week gone by, global stock market traded mixed as investors assessed I corporate earnings and economic data. Policy maker across Asia and Europe have joined U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rate hike on pause in response to the pessimism on the global growth. Recently, Bank of Japan pledged to keep interest rates at bottom levels through at least spring of 2020 in order to achieve its 2 percent inflation target. Japanese factory output slid 0.9 percent in March from prior month and production in the three months ending March 2019 slid 2.6 percent from the previous three months. Germany and France, the two euro area’s largest economies are experiencing weakness in manufacturing in view of the trade protectionist policies and weakening global demand. Expectations that the central bank would keep interest rate lower for longer has already sent euro area bond yields lower.

Back at home, markets would be eyeing on the outcome of the trade talks that are scheduled for next week between U.S. and China. The way global equities are faring, it looks that the investors are hopeful that the dovish policy by central bankers would shore up global growth. In the week gone by domestic markets witnessed volatility due to monthly expiry in F&O for the April series, mixed earnings, rise in bond yield and fall in rupee and rising crude oil prices. Actually crude oil prices blazed above the $75 mark and this has sparked concerns over India’s growth and macro-economic stability as it is a major importer of the commodity. The sharp increase in import bill will hence tend to put pressure on the rupee. On the flip side, Crude which is heating up may bode well for the global economy as it may infuse commodity led inflation.

On the commodity market front, CRB hovered in a range with some correction. Nevertheless, commodities sentiment is also supported by news that U.S. President Donald Trump would soon host Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House, setting the stage for a possible agreement on trade between the world’s two largest economies. Gold can further recover towards 32400 while taking support near 31600 while silver can improve towards 38200 while taking support near 37000. Crude oil prices may continue to remain on upside path but profit booking at higher levels cannot be denied. In base metal counter Zinc and Aluminum may remain in green while rest of the pack may trade in range. There are loads of economic data scheduled this week and some of them are Bank of England Governor Carney Speaks in London, PCE Core, ISM Manufacturing¸ ISM Employment , FOMC Rate Decision, Interest Rate on Excess Reserves, Advance Goods Trade Balance, Change in Non-farm Payrolls¸ unemployment Rate, ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite of US, Manufacturing PMI of China, German Unemployment Claims Rate and CPI, Euro-Zone, Italy, Canada GDP, unemployment Rate of New zeland, Canadian Manufacturing PMI, etc.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.





• Glenmark Pharmaceuticals announced that it has received approval from the Ministry of Healthcare, Russia to market Momate Rhino (Mometasone Furoate 50 mcg) metered nasal spray as an overthecounter (OTC) product for the treatment of seasonal and perennial allergic rhinitis in patients above 18 years of age.

• Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL), which is betting big on the Chinese drug market, recently got an approval for a $1.6-billion anti-blood clotting drug from the Chinese regulator after an 11-year wait.


• Maruti Suzuki India announced that the Ex-Showroom Price of Baleno RS Petrol variant and Diesel variants will be hiked with immediate effect. The details of which are given hereunder (Ex-showroom Price in Delhi).

Information Technology

• Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has deployed an integrated solution for India Post that has helped modernise a network of more than 150,000 post offices in the country.


• Tata Steel Ltd's Europe unit said a fire broke out at its Port Talbot site in South Wales but there were no major injuries and fire was now under control. Port Talbot is home to one of the two integrated steelmaking sites that the company operates in Europe. The plant produces hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized coil, among other types of steel.


• Tata Global Beverages (TGBL) is buying Dhunseri Tea & Industries’ branded packet tea business along with its brands ‘Lal Ghora’ and ‘Kala Ghora’ for a total consideration of Rs 101 crore. TGBL said the move is in line with its ambition to grow its branded tea business in India.

Mining & Minerals

• Vedanta Ltd has received environment clearance for the expansion of its oil and gas operation in Rajasthan that would entail an investment of Rs 12,000 crore.


• GSFC has commissioned 10MW Solar Power Project at Gujarat Solar Park. This green energy initiative is in addition to our wind mill portfolio having 147MW & Solar Rooftop of 1MW. The Solar project would also contribute towards GSFC's Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) compliance. Moreover, being green and clean energy, it shall reduce yearly CO2 emission by about 159,907MT. The Solar Power Plant would generate around 2 Crore Units of Electrical Energy and it would contribute approx. 14 crores Year on Year to balance sheet.


• US durable goods orders surged up by 2.7 percent in March after tumbling by a revised 1.1 percent in February. Economists had expected durable goods orders to climb by 0.8 percent compared to the 1.6 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.

• US initial jobless claims climbed to 230,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level of 193,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 200,000 from the 192,000 originally reported for the previous week.

• US retail sales soared by 1.6 percent in March after dipping by 0.2 percent in February. Economists had expected retail sales to climb by 0.9 percent.

• UK government borrowing was the lowest in 17 years in the financial year ended March 31, and exceeded the official forecast. The public borrowing in the latest full financial year from April 2018 to March 2019 was GBP 24.7 billion, which was GBP 17.2 billion less than in the previous year.

• Retail sales in Japan were up a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on month in March. That beat expectations for a flat reading and was down from the 0.4 percent increase in February.

• The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged and announced that the interest rates will remain very low for an extended period, at least through spring 2020, reflecting uncertainties concerning economy and prices, and the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike. The Policy Board of the BoJ voted 7-2 to maintain interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the bank.


Stocks *Closing Price Trend Date Trend Changed Rate Trend Changed SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing S/l
S&P BSE SENSEX 39067 UP 08.02.19 36546 36300 35300
NIFTY50 11755 UP 08.02.19 10944 10900 10600
NIFTY IT 16504 UP 21.07.17 10712 15200 14800
NIFTY BANK* 30014 UP 30.11.18 26863 27700 27000
ACC 1635 UP 01.03.19 1482 1560 1540
BHARTIAIRTEL 325 UP 15.03.19 338 300 290
BPCL 371 UP 08.03.19 367 358 355
CIPLA 568 UP 01.03.19 552 530 520
SBIN 313 UP 02.11.18 286 295 285
HINDALCO 201 UP 05.04.19 215 - 195
ICICI BANK 407 UP 02.11.18 355 370 360
INFOSYS 738 UP 14.12.18 706 710 690
ITC 305 UP 08.03.19 292 290 285
L&T 1358 UP 08.03.19 1339 1320 1290
MARUTI 6843 DOWN 26.04.19 6843 7300 7500
NTPC 134 UP 08.03.19 127 124 120
ONGC 168 UP 08.03.19 150 145 143
RELIANCE 1393 UP 30.11.18 1168 1280 1250
TATASTEEL 545 UP 15.03.19 515 500 490

*HINDALCO has broken the support of 202

Closing as on 26-04-2019


1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.


Meeting Date Company Purpose
29/04/2019 Castrol India Quarterly Results
30/04/2019 Exide Inds. Quarterly Results, Final Dividend
30/04/2019 Ambuja Cem. Quarterly Results
30/04/2019 Raymond Quarterly Results, Dividend
30/04/2019 TVS Motor Co. Accounts
30/04/2019 Container Corpn. Quarterly Results, Dividend
30/04/2019 Ajanta Pharma Quarterly Results and Others
1/5/2019 Britannia Inds Accounts, Dividend
2/5/2019 MRF Accounts, Final Dividend
2/5/2019 Tata Power Co. Accounts, Dividend
2/5/2019 Dabur India Quarterly Results, Final Dividend
3/5/2019 Hind. Unilever Accounts, Final Dividend
3/5/2019 Tata Chemicals Accounts, Final Dividend
3/5/2019 Godrej Consumer Accounts, Interim Dividend
4/5/2019 Federal Bank Accounts, Dividend
4/5/2019 LIC Housing Fin. Quarterly Results, Dividend
6/5/2019 ICICI Bank Quarterly Results, Dividend
6/5/2019 Marico Quarterly Results
6/5/2019 Bharti Airtel Quarterly Results
7/5/2019 Escorts Accounts, Dividend
8/5/2019 Titan Company Quarterly Results, Dividend
9/5/2019 Asian Paints Quarterly Results, Final Dividend
9/5/2019 HCL Technologies Accounts, Interim Dividend
9/5/2019 Mahanagar Gas Quarterly Results
10/5/2019 IDFC First Bank Accounts, Final Dividend & Others
Ex-Date Company Purpose
30/04/2019 Nestle India 250% Final Dividend
7/5/2019 Hexaware Tech. 125% Interim Dividend
7/5/2019 Indiabulls Hous. 500% Interim Dividend
7/5/2019 Bharti Infra. 75% Second Interim Dividend
24/05/2019 Tata Global 250% Final Dividend
13/06/2019 Infosys 210% Final Dividend





Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis


CMP: 123.20

Target Price: 146

Upside: 18%


Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 157.45/90.70
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 41083.92
EPS (Rs.) 0.00
P/E Ratio (times) 0.00
P/B Ratio (times) 1.06
Dividend Yield (%) 0.91
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• The bank’s total business stood at Rs. 10,59,248 crore at end of Q3 FY19 up by 8.90% YoY. It also posted healthy core operating performance in Q3 FY19. The net interest income of the bank has increased 16.6% after adjustment for IT refund, while the bank posted 16.11% growth in the core fee income.

• The bank has registered continuous credit growth with an average growth of 19.43% from last five quarters. Domestic YoY credit growth on terminal and average basis at 21.13% and 23.34% respectively. Retail loans increased by 32.58% led by home and auto loans at 33.93% and 50.61% respectively.

• Domestic CASA grew by 10.3% YoY - driven by both domestic CA at 9.9% YoY while domestic SA at 10.3% YoY; domestic CASA ratio now stands at 40.0% v/s 40.5% in Q2 FY19. Domestic Deposits stood at Rs. 4,96,271 crore up by 11.91%. The bank has improved margin to 2.69% in Q3FY2019 from 2.61% in Q2FY2019.

• The provision coverage ratio improved above 73.47% end December 2018 and slippages are leveled. Q3 FY19 fresh slippages include an amount of INR 1,169 crore from IL&FS group which contributed 40% of fresh slippages. The exposure to NBFC sector stand sat Rs 72843 crore end December 2018.

• Gross NPA reduced to 11.01% in Q3 FY19 against 11.78% last quarter. Net NPA ratio declines to 4.26% from 4.86% last quarter. Absolute amount of Net NPA also declines by Rs. 1,929 crore to Rs.19,130 crore, lowest in seven quarters. The bank aims to reduce net NPA ratio to 3% by March 2020.

• The bank is talking to many corporate regarding working capital solutions, providing wealth management products, etc., to generate fee income for the bank. Recently, the government has also infused a capital of Rs. 5,042 crore by preferential issuance of shares.


• Unidentified Asset Slippages. (Non- Identified NPA’s)

• Regulatory Provisioning on assets.


The bank has been delivering improvement on asset quality, cost efficiency, other income & productivity in the past few quarters. The transformation journey aims at improved market share, quality of business growth, portfolio diversification and enhanced fee income, with cutting edge digitization of processes, while ensuring that due focus is accorded to compliance and controls. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.146 in 8 to 10 months time frame on an average P/Bv of 0.86x and FY20 BVPS of Rs.175.57.


CMP: 351.60

Target Price: 403

Upside: 15%


Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 557.40/294.80
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 10258.29
EPS (Rs.) 16.04
P/E Ratio (times) 21.84
P/B Ratio (times) 5.89
Dividend Yield (%) 2.45
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• Hexaware is the fastest growing next-generation provider of IT, BPO and consulting services.

• The company has earmarked USD 250mn to 300mn to be spent on acquisitions over 2-3 years with minimum revenue size of USD 25mn per acquired entity. Acquisition targets include focus areas of cloud and customer experience with entities having high revenue or client and profitability close to the company.

• In Q12019, APAC (Asia, Europe and Asia Pacific) showed 15.2% QoQ growth. Manufacturing & Consumer (M&C) is the fastest growing vertical with 15.6% QoQ and 26.7% YoY growth in Q1 2019. Professional Services (PS) displayed 29.8% YoY growth. In Q12019, Business Process Services (BPS) led the service line growth with 7.0% QoQ and 22.9% YoY growth. Infrastructure Management Services (IMS) clocked 50.5% YoY growth.

• Net new deal wins of TCV USD 36mn is likely to support growth. It has added 4 new clients during March quarter.

• Its services attrition rate increased to 18.20 percent in the quarter ended March 2019 compared with 13.40 percent sequentially on trailing 12 month basis.

• Total employees stood at 16509 at the end of March quarter, up from 16205 headcount it had as of December 2018. Net employee addition during the quarter is 304. Blended utilization improved marginally to 79 percent from 78.7 percent on sequential basis.

• According to the management of the company, March quarter has delivered yet another quarter of

double-digit growth of 10.9% YoY. Guidance of 12 to 14% USD revenue growth for CY19 maintained and it will be supported by ramp-up of large Net New client deal as well as strong deal pipeline. Geographical expansion in Eur


• Foreign Exchange fluctuation

• Increasing advancements in cognitive technologies, artificial intelligence.


Overall performance reported by the Company is quite healthy; a well-balanced capital allocation strategy through a combination of capital expenditure, dividends and acquisitions. Strong performance in Manufacturing & Consumer and Professional services verticals would help to transform growth for the future. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.403 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on 4 year average P/E of 19.16x and CY19 (E) earnings of Rs.21.05.

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.



Beat the Street-Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)

The stock closed at Rs 168.40 on 26th April, 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 127.60 on 14th February 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 192 on 15th May 2018. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 156.83

As we can see on weekly chart that the stock has formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern, which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has gained around 5% and has given the breakout of pattern along with rise in volume so follow up buying can anticipate from current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 164-166 levels for the upside target of 180-183 levels with SL below 156.

PVR Limited (PVR)

The stock closed at Rs 1718.35 on 26th April, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1062.80 on 19th July 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1739.95 on 16th April 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1501.15

The Stock is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows sort of “Rising Wedge” on weekly charts which is bullish in nature. After decent upside move, stock is consolidating in narrow range, which is considered as a healthy sign for the stock. Apart from this, technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are suggesting buying for the stock so can initiate long in the range of 1700-1705 levels for the upside target of 1770-1790 levels with SL below 1650.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Long rollover was witnessed in May series. Average rollover price is in the range of 11700 – 11750 levels. Smart recovery was seen led by short covering from lower levels. Calls writers covered their short positions and put writers were actively selling puts. Maximum put open interest buildup of more than 32 lakh shares is at 11700 puts, which should act as strong support zone. Next week, nifty is most likely to trade in the range of 11700 to 11800 with positive bias. Nifty has multiple strong supports at lower levels. Various supports are 11700 & 11650 spot levels. Option put writers were active in recent rally. Put writing is seen in 11600 & 11700 puts. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 21.32% while that for put options closed at 22.00%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 23.23% and is expected to remain up trending. Among Nifty Call options, the 11800-strike call has the highest open interest of more than 26 lakh shares, and in put side 11700-strike put has the highest open interest of over 32 lakh shares in open interest respectively. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.28 which indicates OTM put writing. On the technical front, 11600-11620 spot levels are strong support zone and current trend is likely to continue towards 11800-11850 levels.












Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering




We may see lower level buying in turmeric futures (May) in the range of 6300- 6400 levels. The positive sentiments prevailing on the spot markets may lift the counter to 6700-6750 levels. In the present scenario, buyers are reported to be active in the spot as new crop supply continued. New turmeric supply to Andhra Pradesh Duggirala market has started. Local traders are likely to become active in coming days at lower price levels as Maharashtra production estimate reported lower as a result of drought condition. Demand for the new crop arriving in Nanded, Hingoli and Basmath, the key markets in Maharashtra, is seen higher. On the supply side, as per trade information, currently, all India turmeric stocks are reported around 15 - 18 lakh bags in the spot. Cardamom on the national bourse is trading at two year high owing to anticipation of severe supply shortages in the ongoing season. Going ahead, we may see more upside of 2000-2100 levels. At the auctions, the premium variety touched Rs.2,000 per kg. The local prices have been ruling above Rs 1,200 per kg for several months. Last time the prices touched such a level was back in 2011. The prolonged dry weather in the past few months led to drying of the plants. On the demand side, small quantities are getting exported to other Gulf countries like Dubai, Kuwait and Doha. The exporters are willing to buy at higher rates as no other good quality cardamom is available in the market now. Coriander futures (May) may rise further towards 7900 levels tracking bullish sentiments prevailing on the spot markets. The market participants are expecting shortages & anticipating higher demand day’s ahead.


Bullion counter may trade with upside bias as investors focused on signs of economic weakness after dismal data from Germany and Asia. Japan’s industrial output fell 0.9 percent in March from the previous month, down for the first time in two months. Continuing jobless claims, the number of people already receiving benefits and reported with a one-week delay, increased by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1,655,000 during the week ending April 13. At present bullions counter is moving in tandem with dollar index as it hovered near a 22-month high against its peers, after strong U.S. housing data further eased concerns of a slowdown in the world's biggest economy. Gold can further recover towards 32400 levels while taking support near 31600 levels while silver can improve towards 38200 levels while taking support near 37000 levels. Meanwhile North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said during his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin peace and security on the Korean peninsula depend entirely on the future U.S. attitude. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, holdings stood at 747.87 tonnes. Russia raised its gold holdings by 19.4 tonnes in March, data from the International Monetary Fund showed recently. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, so far this year India's central bank bought 8.2 tonnes of gold, this comes after the RBI added a total of 42.3 tonnes of gold in 2018. Newmont Goldcorp, the world’s biggest gold miner, reported a higherthan-expected first-quarter profit, as a boost in gold production and lower costs countered lagging gold prices.


Soybean futures (May) is expected to trade sideways in the range of 3650-3850 levels. The buying pace of stockists and millers are sluggish in the current scenario due to surplus imported veg oil stocks at domestic front along with bearish global market keeping the overall sentiments on lower end. A surge in the import of vegetable oils in India has prompted the domestic oilseed crushing and refining industry to cut operating capacity to a historic low in order to sustain in the business for future. On CBOT, U.S soybean is under pressure as the Chinese soybean imports are slowing down, feeling the effect of the African Swine Fever on livestock and as a result the soybean-based feed meal. Further, the US-China trade talks have not provided much confidence to the soybeans global outlook. Mustard futures (May) will probably remain stable in the range of 3735-3810 & the trade with an upside bias. There is pickup in demand from mustard meal exporters based on the talks that China will start importing Indian mustard meal in July, about eight months after it lifted a ban on mustard meal of Indian origin. Soy oil futures (May) may trade in the range broader range of 730-750 levels, while CPO futures (May) may decline towards 530, if breaks the support near 535 levels. The sentiments attached to edible oil counter are mixed due to the tug-of-war amid a weaker rupee and one sided correction in U.S soy oil futures on CBOT. The dollar hovering near a two-year high against its peers is also making the market nervous & this is the reason the participants are opting to sell on rise.


Crude oil prices may continue to remain on upside path but profit booking at higher levels cannot be denied. Crude futures rose to 2019 highs earlier last week after the United States stated that it would end all exemptions for sanctions against Iran, demanding countries halt oil imports from Tehran from May or face punitive action from Washington. The Trump administration stated recently that it will not renew exemptions granted last year to buyers of Iranian oil, a more stringent than expected decision that caught several key importers who have been pleading with Washington to continue buying Iranian oil sanctions-free. The U.S. reimposed sanctions in November last year on exports of Iranian oil after President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers. Washington, however, granted Iran’s eight main buyers of oil, mostly in Asia, waivers to the sanctions which allowed them limited purchases for half-a-year. International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil markets are adequately supplied and spare production capacity remained at comfortable levels while highlighting the need to avoid higher oil prices amid fragile global economic growth. Crude oil can further move towards 4800 while taking support near 4450. Natural gas may remain on weaker path as it can take support near 170 and resistance near 180. U.S. natural gas futures dipped to their lowest level in nearly three years as higher production and a drop in demand weighed on prices. The prices are expected to trade until favorable weather conditions and production improves.


Cotton futures (May) will possibly remain trapped in a sideways range of 22100- 22700. The reason being is that the cotton in the international market is in a consolidation zone 77-79 cents per pound. The counter is facing the heat of the tussle between the higher dollar index pressuring the ICE cotton futures & on the contrary a weaker rupee giving support to the domestic prices. The overall bias will be negative owing to reports that China will sell 1 million tons of cotton from its state reserves as part of a scheme to replace old stocks, marking the biggest reserve auction in at least 13 months. About 10,000 tons of cotton will be auctioned on every workday between May 5 and Sept. 30, the administration said. On the demand side, the market participants would also judge the U.S export sales numbers & take further cues for the direction of prices. Chana futures (May) is expected to crash further towards 4300-4270 levels on estimates of higher pulses output in the upcoming Kharif season. For pulses in 2019-20, the government has set Kharif output target of 10.1 MT, higher than 9.01 MT production pegged in 2018-19. According to official reports, Centre has 964,845 tons pulses seed for sowing in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) kharif season, higher than the requirement of 821,242 tons. Guar seed futures (May) is expected to consolidate in the range of 4300-4400, while guar gum futures (May) may trade with a negative bias & descend towards 8550 levels. The correction in oil prices in the international market & a declining guar gum-guar seed ratio is giving a signal that demand for the commodities will be sluggish.


In base metal counter, Zinc and aluminum may remain in green while rest of the pack may trade in range. Base metals sentiment was also supported by news that U.S. President Donald Trump would soon host Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House, setting the stage for a possible agreement on trade between the world’s two largest economies. Copper may take support near 438 and may recover towards 460. Freeport-McMoRan Inc’s copper output fell 18 percent to around 340,000 tonnes in the first quarter, while Anglo American’s production rose by 4 percent to 161,100 tonnes. Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose by 8,675 tonnes to 194,800 tonnes, nearing 7-month highs touched earlier this month. Meanwhile Lead may also take support near 131 while taking resistance near 138. Nickel can witness lower level buying as it can test 890 taking support near 845. The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 2,000 tonnes in February from a revised deficit of 3,700 tonnes in January, and was much smaller than a 7,200-tonne deficit in the same month last year, the International Nickel Study Group stated recently. Aluminium may remain buoyant as it can test 158 while taking support near 147. According to the International Aluminium Institute “Global aluminium production flatlined in the first quarter of this year” China global production rose by a marginal 0.3 percent year-on-year as China remained the world’s dominant player with a 57 percent share of world production. Zinc may extend its upside as it can test 242 levels taking support near 224 levels.





ALUMINIUM MCX (MAY) contract closed at Rs. 150.70 on 25th Apr’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 151.60 on 25th Apr’19 and a low of Rs. 142.20 on 25th Mar’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 148.66.On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.06.

One can buy at Rs. 147 for a target of Rs.154 with the stop loss of Rs. 143.50.

ZINC MCX (MAY) contract closed at Rs. 226.45 on 25th Apr’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 232.40 on 11th Apr’19 and a low of Rs. 211.50 on 12th Mar’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 223.70. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.382.

One can buy around Rs. 223 for a target of Rs. 232 with the stop loss of Rs. 219.

TURMERIC NCDEX (MAY) contract was closed at Rs. 6535.00 on 25th Apr’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 6968.00 on 14th Dec’18 and a low of Rs. 6000 on 26th Mar’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6436.80. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.001.

One can buy at Rs. 6300 for a target of Rs. 6900 with the stop loss of Rs 6000.




• U.S. Census Bureau stated that new durable goods orders increased by $6.8 billion or 2.7% to $258.5 billion, last month.

• Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.414 million tonnes in March from a revised 4.916 million tonnes in February.

• U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods.

• Australian miner Aurelia Metals Ltd said it was in talks about a possible acquisition of Glencore’s CSA copper mine in the state of New South Wales.

• The central government has disbursed around Rs 11,000 crore among 31 million farmers in the PM KISAN scheme so far.

• The government has set an ambitious foodgrains target of 291.1 million tonnes (mt) for 2019-20, nearly 2.6 per cent more than the previous year’s 283.7 mt at the National Kharif Campaign conference.

• IMD is working at a brisk pace to issue localised weather forecasting to all 6,500 blocks across 660 districts in the country by 2020 and help as many as 9.5 crore farmers deal with the vagaries of weather.

• China plans to buy additional 1.9 million tonnes palm oil from Malaysia, in the next five years.


CRB hovered in range with some correction. Some Improved data from US and China gave boost up to some base metals and crude. Dollar hovered near a two-year high against its peers, supported by strong U.S. capital goods orders and awaiting first-quarter GDP data which could further reinforce the greenback's bullish standing. Data on Thursday showed new orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased by the most in eight months in March. That follows other recent U.S. data that show strength in retail sales and exports which have eased concerns of the world's biggest economy sharply slowing. China's economy also grew at a 6.4% pace in the first quarter from a year earlier, defying expectations for a further slowdown, as industrial production jumped sharply and consumer demand showed signs of improvement, gave boost to the base metals prices and lead, zinc and aluminum prices strengthened. As regards to spread update, the spread of Zinc and Lead has tested record low of -96 levels as the Zinc prices rallied this year on higher infrastructure spending supported by continuous drawdown in LME inventories. Copper saw spike in the prices but couldn’t stay on higher side. Crude prices saw nonstop eight week rally as oil markets remain tight amid supply disruptions and rising geopolitical concerns, especially over the tensions between the United States and Iran. Though it shed some of its previous gain on hopes that producer club OPEC will soon raise output to make up for a decline in exports from Iran following a tightening of sanctions on Tehran by the United States. Natural gas traded in a tight range on mild temperature issue.

Mix sentiment was witnessed in oil seeds and edible oil futures. Soyabean and refined soya saw revival in the prices; mustard too followed the upside trend whereas crude palm oil futures saw correction. Cotton counter saw further correction as physical buyers refrained to buy on higher levels. News of releasing cotton stocks from strategic reserve in China also set dovish tone for cotton counter. Though kapas and cotton oilseed cake continued their upside journey. Chana saw continuous fall in the prices on fear of possibility of change in import policy. It was a very strong week for spices in which all of them saw strong upside. Jeera saw continuous 9 week rally on improved export demand amid lower stocks with its main competitor Turkey and Syria.







SPOT PRICES (% change)



GPI Vs GDP........ Quality of life Vs gross economic progress

Traditionally Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to measure economic progress of any country. GDP is equal to the total monetary value of all final goods and services that have been exchanged within a specific border over a set period of time. If GDP is rising, it has been considered that the economy is moving forward. If GDP is falling, the nation's economy is losing ground. It has been also assumed that a higher GDP represent greater human progress, because it means more valuable goods and services have been created.

Even some economists believe that GDP can increase after destruction such as earthquake, war or terrorist attack as the rebuilding effort just boosts GDP. But it is not true from the perspective of a citizen living with the day-to-day realities of life or who suffer with destructions. It is difficult to know the relation between the economic prosperity of a country and quality of life of citizen especially poor's. GDP is only concerned with the sum of all exchanged goods and services, not the distribution of those goods and services among the individual of that country. In other word, the rising nation's income doesn't reflect that the income of individual is also increasing.

GPI: A Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is considered a progressive metric to measure the economic growth of a country. The GPI indicator takes everything the GDP uses into account, but adds other figures that represent the cost of the negative effects related to economic activity (such as the cost of crime, cost of ozone depletion and cost of resource depletion, among others).

Difference between Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) & Gross Domestic Product(GDP)

• Already said that GDP can increase after destruction such as earthquake, war or terrorist attack as the rebuilding effort just boosts GDP. GPI views destruction as a negative. It hampers the economic activity by affecting the humans.

• Pollution is good news for GDP. Industry gets paid once for the economic activity that creates pollution and again when money is spent to mitigate the pollution. GPI views pollution as a negative.

• GPI counts the value of the labor that goes into housework and volunteering. It also counts the benefit of an increasingly educated population.

• Rising crime costs money in legal fees, medical bills, replacement costs and other outlays. GDP views this spending as a positive development. GPI views it as a negative.

• Global warming, nuclear waste storage and other long-term consequences of economic activity are factored into GPI as negatives.

• GDP, on the other hand, views all spending as positive. But if spending drains the government's treasury, GPI views it as a negative.

• When wetlands or forests are destroyed by economic activity, GDP views the events as good news for the economy; GPI views these events as bad news for future generations.

• Medical insurance, auto insurance, health care bills and other expenses that are required to maintain quality of life. GPI views these as a negative. GDP views them positively.

• When a nation is forced to borrow from other nations to finance consumption, GPI factors in the result as a negative. If the borrowed money is used for investments and benefits the country, it is viewed as a positive.




Currency Table

News Flows of last week

22nd APR Goldman says Fed losing forecasting edge changes game in markets.
23rd APR RBI announced another Rs 25,000 crore OMO in May as liquidity dries up.
24th APR RBI’s second dollar swap auction fetches bids worth $18.65 billion.
24th APR Bank of England to refrain from rate hike until August 2020: NIESR.
25th APR RBI plans to attract more foreign capital for nation-building.
25th APR Corporate profits and U.S. economy chug along, defying recession fears.

Market Stance

The entire emerging currencies including Indian Rupee is on backtrack against US Dollar after news wired that Argentina’s probability of default has increased substantially amid financial reforms plans was rejected by IMF and other investors. Argentina’s 5 Y Credit Default Swaps soared 17% last Wednesday followed by 8% plunge in Argentine Peso. The Rupee pair accelerate loses amid surge in Oil prices and follow-on forward bookings by Importers. Accordingly the one year forward premium touches 3 month high to cover any contagion effect which happened last year. On top of that Euro and Australian Dollar plunged heavily after flash PMIs from Germany and Australia’s headline CPI missed forecast. Advanced estimates of quarterly US GDP due today will provide a respectable place of above 2.5% versus consensus of 2.2% annualized due to major contribution of net trade, although business investment and personal consumption growth is slowing. Next week Fed’s favorite barometer – monthly core PCE to gauge inflation trend followed by FOMC and BoE will held its monetary policy will be key for US Dollar.

USDINR is likely to trade with positive bias between 69.75 and 70.80.

Economic gauge for the next week

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (APR) contract closed at 70.5650 on 25th Apr’ 19. The contract made its high of 70.5950 on 25th Apr’19 and a low of 69.88 on 22nd Apr’ 18 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 69.97

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.14. One can buy at 70.12 for the target of 70.72 with the stop loss of 69.82.

EUR/INR (APR) contract closed at 78.78 on 25th Apr’ 19. The contract made its high of 79.1975 on 23rd Apr’19 and a low of 78.5925 on 25th Apr’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 78.86

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.92. One can sell at 79.10 for a target of 78.50 with the stop loss of 79.40.

GBP/INR (APR) contract closed at 91.0150 on 25th Apr’ 19. The contract made its high of 91.48 on 23rd Apr’19 and a low of 90.8025 on 25th Apr’18 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 91.26

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.30. One can buy above 91.20 for a target of 91.80 with the stop loss of 90.90.

JPY/INR (APR) contract closed at 63.1875 on 25th Apr’ 19. The contract made its high of 63.2025 on 25th Apr’19 and a low of 62.6075 on 22nd Apr’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 62.61

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.73. One can sell at 63.30 for a target of 62.70 with the stop loss of 63.60.




Neogen Chemicals raises $5.7 mn from anchor investors ahead of IPO

Speciality chemicals maker Neogen Chemicals Ltd has raised Rs 39.70 crore from anchor investors ahead of its initial public offering. The company allotted about 1.85 million shares to four domestic mutual funds at the upper end of its price band of Rs 212-215, it said in a stock-exchange filing. The investors are SBI Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund, L&T Mutual Fund and Sundaram Mutual Fund. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of shares worth Rs 70 crore and a secondary market sale of up to 2.9 million shares by promoters Haridas Thakarshi Kanani and Beena Haridas Kanani, according to the company's draft prospectus. Neogen had filed its draft prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India last November. It received SEBI's approval on 8 February. The company is targeting a valuation of as much as Rs 565 crore. Neogen was founded in 1989 by chairman Haridas Kanani, an IIT-Bombay graduate. The company began business operations in 1991 at a factory at Mahape, Navi Mumbai. Thane-based Neogen also has a factory in Vadodara, Gujarat. Neogen makes bromine- and lithium-based specialty chemicals. Over the years it has expanded its range of products. It now makes 187 products, comprising 170 organic chemicals and 17 inorganic chemicals. Inga Advisors Pvt. Ltd and Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd are managing Neogen’s IPO.

Sterling and Wilson files paper for Rs 4,500-cr IPO

Sterling and Wilson, a solar engineering, procurement and construction firm promoted by Shapoorji Pallonji and Company has filed draft papers with markets regulator Sebi to raise about Rs 4,500 crore through an initial public offer. The IPO will be an offer for sale by the company's chairman Khurshed Yazdi Daruvala and Shapoorji Pallonji and Company, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, Credit Suisse Securities (India), Deutsche Equities India, IIFL Holdings, SBI Capital Markets are the global coordinators and book running lead managers. IndusInd Bank and YES Securities (India) are the book running lead managers to the issue. The shares of Sterling and Wilson are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE. Sterling and Wilson is a global pureplay, end-to-end solar EPC solutions provider. The company's order book was Rs 4,309.09 crore as of December 31, 2018. The company has operations in 26 countries, and use its subsidiaries and branch offices globally for operations.

Shriram Properties gets Sebi nod for IPO

Real estate firm Shriram Properties has received market regulator Sebi's go-ahead to float an initial public offering (IPO) through which it plans to raise about Rs 1,250 crore. The firm, which approached the regulator in December 2018 seeking its clearance to launch IPO, obtained Sebi's "observations" on April 9, according to the latest update with the market watchdog. Sebi's observations are necessary for any company to launch public issues such as IPO, follow-on public offer and rights issue. According to draft papers, the IPO comprises fresh issue aggregating up to Rs 250 crore besides an offer for sale of up to 42,403,271 shares by existing shareholders, including Tata Capital Financial Service and TPG Asia, draft papers filed with Sebi showed. The company is looking to consider a pre-IPO placement of up to Rs 100 crore. Funds raised through the issue would be utilised for repayment of certain borrowings availed by the company or its subsidiaries and for general corporate purposes. Axis Capital, Edelweiss Financial Services, JM Financial and Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities will manage the company's public issue.

Govt aims over 15 bln rupees from IRCTC, IRFC IPOs by Sep-end

The government aims to raise over 15 bln rupees from initial public offerings in railway companies Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp Ltd and Indian Railway Finance Corp Ltd in the first half of the current financial year started April. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs had in April 2017 approved listing five railway companies–IRCON International, Rail Vikas Nigam, IRFC, RITES Ltd, and Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp. Of these, IRCON International and RITES were listed in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar). The government aims to raise 900 bln rupees through divestment in 2019-20, compared with 853 bln rupees raised last year.





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Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund seeks SEBI nod for banking ETF

Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has sought the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s approval to launch Aditya Birla Sun Life Banking ETF. The open-ended exchange traded fund (ETF) tracking the Nifty Bank will deploy at least 95 percent of its assets in stocks comprising the index, with the balance allocated to debt and money market instruments. The units of the scheme will be compulsorily traded in dematerialised form, and hence there will be no entry/exit load for units purchased or sold through stock exchanges, as per the draft offer document.

Aditya Birla Sun Life MF seeks SEBI nod for pharma & healthcare fund

Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has sought the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s approval to launch Aditya Birla Sun Life Pharma & Healthcare Fund, according to information on the regulator’s website. The open-ended equity scheme will deploy at least 80 percent of its assets in equities and equity-linked instruments to companies in the pharma, healthcare and allied sectors, and the balance may be allocated to other equity and equitylinked instruments. It also has the provision to invest up to 20 percent in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) and debt and money market instruments.

Principal Mutual Fund launches small cap fund; offer to close May 6

Principal Mutual Fund on April 22 launched an open-ended scheme predominantly investing in small-cap stocks, Principal Small Cap Fund, according to a press release from the fund house. The new fund offer of the scheme will remain open until May 6. Under the scheme, the fund house will offer Smart Trigger Enabled Plan (STEP) & Auto Trigger facilities. STEP aims to protect against a sharp fall in the market as it invests in a staggered manner to mitigate market-timing risk. STEP is an exclusive facility which is available only during the new fund offer. Through STEP facility, investors can spread their investment in Principal Small Cap Fund in four equal monthly instalments and only 25 percent of the application money is invested upfront in Principal Small Cap Fund, remaining 75 percent is invested in Principal Cash Management Fund.

Mirae Asset Mutual Fund to float equity focussed fund on April 23; offer to end on May 7

Mirae Asset Mutual Fund will launch an open-ended equity scheme, Mirae Asset Focussed Fund on April 23, the fund house said in a statement. Subscription to the scheme will remain open until May 7. The fund, which will invest in a maximum of 30 stocks, will also have the flexibility to invest across large cap, mid cap and small cap categories and across sectors. The scheme will be managed by Gaurav Misra. Mirae Asset Mutual Fund has completed more than 10 years in India and has broken into the top 15 fund houses in terms of assets under management. The company's AUM or asset under management stood at Rs 27,000 crore as on 31 March 2019. In addition to providing the traditional equity and fixed income products, Mirae also forayed into the alternate product space and ventured into venture capital, real estate, capital markets and alternative investment funds in 2018.

LIC Mutual Fund seeks SEBI nod for overnight debt scheme

LIC Mutual Fund has sought the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)'s approval to launch LIC Overnight Fund, an open-ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities, according to the draft offer document on the regulator's website. The scheme will deploy its entire assets in overnight securities, which includes debt and money market instruments with residual maturity of a single business day. Overnight securities also include synthetic overnight positions such as reverse repo/tri-party repo and other derivative transactions, where the interest rate is reset every business day.


  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Principal Small Cap Fund - Regular Plan (G)
  • Open-Ended
  • Growth
  • 22-Apr-2019
  • 06-May-2019
  • To generate long term capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related instruments of small cap companies.
  • Rs.5000/-
  • P.V.K. Mohan / Siddarth Mohta
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Mirae Asset Focused Fund - Regular Plan (G)
  • Open-Ended
  • Growth
  • 23-Apr-2019
  • 07-May-2019
  • To generate long term capital appreciation/income by investing in equity & equity related instruments of up to 30 companies. There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
  • Rs.5000/-
  • Gaurav Misra



Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)
TAX Fund
Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully


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