Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets rose after weak manufacturing report boosts hope for smaller rate hikes going forward. To note, U.S. manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in nearly 2-1/2 years in September as new orders contracted amid aggressive interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to cool demand and tame inflation. Now markets across the globe are waiting for the US September jobs report as this would set the market direction for the near term. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will take place on November 1- 2. Investors were also watching Treasury yields edge higher after falling this week on renewed projections that the Fed could be slow in its path of rate hike. Eurozone business activity came weak, raising recession fears. On the flip side, China’s official factory activity data unexpectedly expanded in August, beating estimates. While Japanese households increased spending in August compared with a year earlier as the economy continued to recover from COVID-19 restrictions, but rising prices are clouding the outlook for further gains. Household spending rose 5.1 percent in August from a year earlier. Meanwhile, International crude oil advanced past $93 a barrel, up 11% this week spurred by Opec's production cut.

Back at home, domestic markets witnessed volatile movement amid weak global cues and rising crude oil prices. The fact that FIIs have stopped selling and have turned buyers, though in small quantities, is positive for markets. On the currency front, Indian rupee weakened past 82 mark for the first time to hit a fresh record low against the US dollar amid a surge in crude and US bond yields. Recently, in response to Fed’s action, Reserve Bank of India also hiked rates for a third time by 50 bps. Meanwhile, the World Bank downgraded India's economic growth forecast to 6.5% for FY23 citing deteriorating international environment. Going forward, there is an expectation of healthy corporate earnings momentum to continue. India's interest rate and currency management has been very strong as compared with other global central banks.

On the commodity markets front, sharp fall in dollar index gave strong support to the commodities complex; CRB closed up above 302. Dollar index took a breather as the rally was overheated and UN call to put a pause in aggressive interest rate hike to major central banks stimulated selling. Even US treasury yield saw sharp fall. Sharp production cut announcement by OPEC + gave a surge to the crude prices. This is likely to drive spot prices higher, particularly for Middle East oil, which meets about twothird of Asia's demand. Crude oil can trade in a range of 7000-7500 levels. Bullion looks positive but buying should be done on dips. Westpac Consumer Confidence Index of Australia, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate and GDP of UK, PPI, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel and FOMC Minutes of US, Inflation Rate of Germany, New Yuan Loans and Inflation Rate of China, etc are major triggers scheduled this week which will give significant impact on commodities prices.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001861. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • According to a survey results from S&P Global, India's service sector activity expanded at the weakest pace in six months in September, as output and new orders rose at a slower rate amid inflationary pressures and competitive conditions.
  • According to a survey data published by S&P Global, India's manufacturing sector growth slowed moderately in September but the overall growth remained robust. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 55.1 in September from 56.2 in August. The score was also below economists' forecast of 55.8.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Lupin has reached an agreement with Unitaid, The Aurum Institute, the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI), and other global procurement agencies to support tuberculosis prevention treatment that will be rolled out to 138 countries, including many low-and middle-income countries with a large burden of TB.
  • Lupin has received approval from the U.S. FDA for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for Darunavir Tablets, 600 mg and 800 mg, a generic equivalent of Prezista® Tablets of Janssen Products, LP. Lupin is the exclusive first filer for 800 mg tablets and is eligible for 180-day exclusivity.
Power
  • JSW Energy has signed an agreement with the Maharashtra government to set up a 960 megawatt hydro pump storage project in Raigarh district of the state. Hydro pumped storage is a well-established technology that provides adequate peaking power reserves, reliable grid operation, energy balancing and storage capacity.
Telecom
  • Bharti Airtel has provided more detail on the launch of Airtel 5G plus in several top cities in the country. Customers in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Siliguri, Nagpur and Varanasi will start enjoying the cutting edge Airtel 5G Plus services in a phased manner as the company continues to construct its network and complete the roll out.
Construction
  • L&T Construction has secured an order from a leading automobile major to construct a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Haryana, India. The scope involves Design & Execution of Civil, Structural & Architectural works including external development works. This win is on the back of a prestigious order from Reliance Life Sciences, a leading bio-tech major to construct their state-of-theart life sciences products manufacturing facility in Maharashtra, India.
FMCG
  • Britannia Industries has acquired a controlling stake in Kenya-based Kenafric Biscuits; a move which will help the company set up a manufacturing base and expand sales in the African markets. Britannia and Associates Dubai (BADCO), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Britannia has acquired a 51 per cent equity stake.
Capital Goods
  • Patanjali Foods plans on building a strong distribution led export portfolio of fast-moving consumer goods and fast moving health goods products and also will launch new products with high margin and high growth. It also intends to focus on digital channels and ecommerce.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US initial jobless claims climbed to 219,000, an increase of 29,000 from the previous week's revised level of 190,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 200,000 from the 193,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US trade deficit narrowed to $67.4 billion in August from a revised $70.5 billion in July. Economists had expected the deficit to shrink to $68.0 billion from the $70.6 billion originally reported for the previous month.
  • US construction spending fell by 0.7 percent to an annual rate of $1.781 trillion in August after sliding by 0.6 percent to a revised rate of $1.794 trillion in July. Economists had expected construction spending to dip by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.
  • US manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in September from 52.8 in August, although a reading above 50 still indicates growth in the sector. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 52.2.
  • Eurozone retail sales decreased for the third straight month in August, though at a slower-than-expected rate. The volume of retail sales dropped 0.3 percent month-over-month in August, following a 0.4 percent fall in July, which was revised from a 0.3 percent rise reported earlier. The expected fall was 0.4 percent.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LIMITED
CMP: 8782.95
Target Price: 10125
Upside: 15%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 5.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 9450.00/6540.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 265315.41
  • EPS (Rs.) 143.61
  • P/E Ratio (times) 61.16
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.91
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.68
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Maruti Suzuki India Limited is engaged in the manufacturing, purchasing and sale of motor vehicles, components and spare parts. The Company offers its products through three channels, namely Nexa, Arena and Commercial.
  • The company sold a total of 985,326 units during the period between April-September 2021 as against 733,155 units during the same period last year. Total sales include domestic sales of 852,694 units, sales to other OEM of 38,635 units and exports of 132,632 units. The shortage of electronic components had a minor impact on the production of vehicles, mainly in domestic models. The Company took all the possible measures to minimise the impact.
  • The company in September 2022 launched the premium SUV Grand Vitara. According to the management, the Grand Vitara has received an overwhelming response from customers with over 57,000 bookings. The Grand Vitara Intelligent Electric Hybrid boasts segment-leading fuel-efficiency and a pure EV driving mode. It has been launched at a very competitive starting price of Rs. 10.45 lakh. The launch is important for the company to gain market share in SUV segment. Earlier in August 2022, the company already launched All-New Alto K10. During the same month it also launched S-CNG variant of its iconic sporty hatchback Swift.
  • It is currently working on many new upcoming offerings for the Indian market including two new SUVs that will be launched over the next 6 months in the country. These include the Baleno-based YTB SUV and the Jimny 5-door SUV. Both these SUVs are likely to be showcased at the upcoming Auto Expo 2023.
  • It is setting up third manufacturing plant in Kharkhoda in Sonipat, Haryana. The company currently has plants in Gurugram and Manesar. According to the management of the company, the project is spread over 800 acres and at peak production capacity would be around 8 lakh units in the next 8 years requiring total investment of Rs. 18,000 crore. The first phase of the project would be set up with an investment of over Rs 11,000 crore. The first phase of the new plant will commence from 2025, followed by the second phase in the later part of 2026.

Risk

  • Increase in commodity prices
  • Shortage of electronic components

Valuation

The company is focusing on improving its market share in the SUV segment with new launches which will help the company not only recover the overall market share but will also help in margin improvement. Cool-off in metal prices and improving supply chain issue auger well for the company. Moreover, deprecation in Yen would also reduce the input cost for the company as it import parts from Japan in Yen. New capacity addition and new launches indicates future growth visibility. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 10,125 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/E of 42x and FY23 EPS of Rs.241.06.

P/B Chart

SIEMENS LIMITED
CMP: 2819.00
Target Price: 3344
Upside: 19%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 3136.80/2023.15
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 100390.30
  • EPS (Rs.) 34.04
  • P/E Ratio (times) 82.81
  • P/B Ratio (times) 9.45
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.29
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Siemens India has been the preferred technology solutions provider, conceptualizing and implementing various flagship projects in Mobility, Energy Management, Power and Gas, Smart Cities, Intelligent Infrastructure, Industrial Applications, Healthcare and Smart Financing.
  • During the quarter ended June 2022, new orders from continuing operations stood at Rs 4,992 crore, registering a 20% increase over the same period last year. The company's order backlog from continuing operations stands at an all-time high at Rs 17,856 crore. The management of the company continues to be cautiously optimistic about the increase in demand across all the businesses.
  • According to the management of the company, the plans of the government in terms of public spending in capital expenditure both last year are rolled out in the current year are consistent and Siemens sees major opportunities in India as companies look to open new plants to benefit from the government’s production-linked incentive schemes, and also adopt digital technologies on its shop floors.
  • On the development front, Siemens launches open digital business platform ‘Siemens Xcelerator’ in India which would accelerate digital transformation and value creation for customers of all sizes in industry, buildings, grids and mobility.
  • The strong performance was across all its businesses and included a significant order in its Mobility business. It has signed a strategic MOU with Switch Mobility a subsidiary of Ashok Leyland to work with them on delivering cost-effective E-Mobility solutions which will be available to commercial vehicle customers in India.
  • The consortium of Siemens Limited India and Siemens Mobility GmbH has secured an order from Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) related to Signalling and Telecommunication order for Kolkata Metro Line 3 & 6. Previously, it has equipped Kolkata Metro’s North-South corridor and East-West line with TPWS signalling and rail electrification systems, respectively.

Risk

  • Slowdown in economy
  • Exposure to intense competition

Valuation

The company's strong market position is supported by access to the latest technology and brand equity of its parent, diverse product portfolio, wide geographical reach and established track record of timely execution of projects. The company believes that the tendering for private sector capex will pick up in the months ahead on the back of Government investment in infrastructure and also due to increase in capacity utilization levels. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.3344 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a current P/BVx of 9.45x and FY Sep 23E BVPS of Rs.353.85.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS LIMITED (HAL)

The stock closed at Rs 2459.70 on 07th October, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1181.20 on 20th December, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 2638.35 on 12th September, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1839.41.

As we can see on chart that the stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows, sort of rising channel which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock tested the support of channel and started moving higher, ended over 5% gains along with high volumes so follow up buying may continue for the stock for coming days. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 2420-2430 levels for the upside target of 2640-2700 levels with SL below 2280 levels.

IDFC FIRST BANK LIMITED (IDFCFIRSTB)

The stock closed at Rs 53.00 on 07th October, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 28.95 on 22nd June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 55.15 on 06th October, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 43.37

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows. Apart from this, it has formed an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly chart and has given the neckline breakout of pattern along with high volumes so further upside is anticipated from the stock in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 51.50-52 levels for the upside target of 58-60 levels with SL below 47 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets rebounded last week after witnessing a sharp sell- off in past couple of weeks as Nifty got supported by rally seen in metal, reality and IT stocks. Nifty once again reclaimed 17300 levels in the week gone by while Bank Nifty ended the week with gains of more than 1.25%. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 17.93% while that for put options closed at 19.06%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 19.32%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.67. From the derivative front, option writers can be seen active in both calls and puts, which points towards sideways moves in upcoming week. Nifty is expected to trade in broader range of 17200-17500 levels while Bank nifty likely to face strong hurdle in zone of 39500 to 40000 levels. Technically both the indices are holding well above their short and long term moving averages and expected to trade with positive bias. Moreover, we advise traders to keep focus on sector specific and stock specific actions.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Bottom 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 06th October, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric (Oct) prices extended its gains for second consecutive week tracking weaker supplies at major trading centers. Demand for turmeric has improved at prevailing levels that is supporting firmness in price. Stockists are active in the market in optimism of better price outlook as new crop will touch the market after 5-6 months. After touching the yearly high of 11148 in Jan’22, turmeric prices has slumped 40% till end of Sep’22 and now trying to consolidating at prevailing level. In the wake of lean arrival period ahead, prices are likely to move up in line with its prices seasonality. Turmeric arrivals were down by 16 % Y-o-Y in Sep’22 and reported lower by 55% Y-o-Y so far in Oct’22 reported at 1015 tonnes in first week of Oct against the 2249 tonnes of previous year. Gains in turmeric are likely to be driven by rising export. Turmeric export surged up by 5% Y-o-Y in Aug’22 and increased by 15% Y-o-Y so far in year 2022. India has exported around 74 thousand tonnes of turmeric in Jan’22-Aug’22 compared to 64 thousand tonnes of previous year where Bangladesh, UAE, Iran and Morocco are the major buyers. Going forward, prices are likely to track the ongoing sowing activities in southern states which have been going on firm note. Prices will sustain the support of 6700 and likely to move up gradually towards the 7300 level in coming week.

Jeera (Oct) futures prices remained under pressure last week due to profit booking at futures platform. Sluggish demand by local buyers and spice makers kept prices down. However, prices can rebound in coming week mainly due to supply constrains amid surging export demand from China, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Demand from China has increased significantly in Aug’22 as total Jeera exports to China jumped to 10629 tonnes in Aug’22 compared to 2907 tonnes of previous year. Domestic supplies are likely to remain lower due to slower arrival pace that will restrict the downfall in prices. Only 1058 tonnes of jeera has arrived so far in Oct’22 against 3141 tonnes of previous year. Jeera prices are likely to find support near 23300 and will move towards resistance of 24400

Dhaniya (Oct) futures are likely to trade in narrow range may keep bias on negative side. Supply is likely to remain adequate due to surging imports of premium quality of coriander in India. Spices markers and stockiest are avoiding bulk buying in expectation of fall in prices. Surging cheaper imports from Russia other global counties is likely to weigh on domestic prices. India has imported about 20.2 thousand tonnes of Dhaniya during the time period of Jan’22-Aug’22 compared to 4.5 thousand tonnes of previous year. Prices are likely to find support near 10300 with resistance of 11400.

BULLIONS

Gold witnessed its biggest weekly gain since March amid a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields from multi-year peaks. The upside for Gold and Silver looks capped as of now, simply for no other reason than that the Fed hasn’t pivoted yet. New Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook added her voice to the U.S. central bank's broad consensus of continued interest rate hikes. Hopes faded as Fed officials reiterated their commitment to containing inflation, which is running way above the central bank’s 2% target. The German government expects Europe's largest economy to slide into recession next year as an energy crisis, rising prices and supply bottlenecks take their toll, citing provisional figures. The Perth Mint's sales of gold products in September rose 4.2% month-on-month, while silver sales jumped to their highest in seven years, the refiner said in a blog post. Silver prices were headed for their biggest weekly rise since July, jumping 9% so far. Global equity slide, as investors fretted over recession risks amid signs of further aggressive central bank policy tightening and new signs of a deep semiconductor slump. The dollar and Treasury yields remained elevated after multiple Federal Reserve officials continued to talk up additional rate hikes ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs report later in the day, while rising crude oil prices compounded concerns about prolonged inflation. On COMEX, Gold price may face resistance near $1745 break above may push prices to $1780 whereas failure to break above the levels may push the prices to downward and may take support near $1680. Ahead in the week gold may trade in the range of 49800-53000 and silver may trade in the range of 57800-63500 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices witnessed its best weekly gains since March, amid OPEC+’s decision to reduce output by a nominal 2 million bpd , the first month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Both the benchmark was headed for weekly gains, fuelled by producer group OPEC+ output cut announcement. The decision would squeeze supplies in an already tight market, adding to inflation. Tightening momentary policy and China’s ongoing COVID-related movement restrictions mean global demand growth is expected to come under pressure. U.S. President Joe Biden expressed disappointment over OPEC+’s plans and he and officials said the US was looking at all possible alternative to keep prices from rising. Some of those options include releasing oil from the SPR or exploring a curb on energy exports by U.S. companies. More SPR releases are being largely offset by lower production from UAE and Kuwait, still keeping the market in deficit in the fourth quarter. Ahead in the week, prices are likely to trade in the wider range of 6980-7750 with higher volatility. Natural gas prices witnessed buying in the week, tracking gains in crude oil, and moving further away from a 12-week low touched earlier in the week. The market will continue to be very noisy, but that should not be much of a surprise considering just how volatile natural gas typically is. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 90.1 bcfd this week to 90.8 bcfd week ahead. ext month the exports are going to be huge and probably will be breaking records once we start to see LNG export terminals come out of maintenance. Ahead in the week prices may continue to trade in the range of 540-630 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade on mixed fundamentals as the prices may get support by hopes of improved demand from top consumer China as it ramps up support for its COVID-19-hit economy and speculations grew that Beijing may soon ease coronavirus restrictions. China's demand for commodity shipments is expected to improve in the fourth quarter as investments in infrastructure projects and steel production pick up pace, senior shipping executives said. However, the overall outlook for metals demand globally remained grim, as central banks around the world tightened their monetary policy to curb rising inflation and amid shortage of energy supply in Europe that could hurt economic activities. So sell on rise should be good strategy. Copper may trade in the range 635-685 levels. The LME has restricted new copper and zinc deliveries from Ural and its subsidiary, Chelyabinsk Zinc, following Britain's sanctioning of its controlling shareholder, Iskander Makhmudov. Zinc can trade in the range of 270-295. Lead can move in the range of 177-187. Glencore said it would place its Nordenham smelter in Germany on care and maintenance from Nov. 1, and the LME restricted new deliveries from a Russian mining company. Nyrstar said that it would shut its Port Pirie lead smelter in Australia for 55 days and as per Reuters that Glencore was reviewing the sustainability of lead operations at its Portovesme plant in Italy. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-220. Steel long is likely to trade in the range of 48500-51200 levels on NCDEX. Slowing global economies and rising interest rates are adding to the concerns over global steel demand and pricing.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton (Oct) MCX prices are likely to witness some recovery in prices mainly due to fear of yield losses sparked after the recent rainfall in northern part of India in first week of Oct’22. Prices can extend its gains on fall in arrivals in northern India especially in Punjab. Lower area and yield has hit the arrival pace in Punjab as only 46000 tonnes of arrivals were reported till 4th Oct’22 in current season compared to 2.33 lakh tonnes of previous year. However, gains in prices are likely to be limited due to demand issue as worries over global economic slowdown and emerging fear of recession will hit the textile demand of cotton. Increasing imports of Chinese yarn in India has dampened the demand of Indian cotton. Harvesting activities are likely to pick up in coming weeks that will also limit the gains. Prices are expected to hold the support of 31000 and likely to move towards the resistance of 35700.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX (Dec) futures are likely to rebound in line with slower arrival pace in Punjab. However, advancement of harvesting activities of cotton in central part of India will cap the gains. Prices are expected to trade in range of 2280- 2541 range.

Guar seed Oct futures are likely to be volatile may keep bias on down side. Harvesting activities are likely to pick up that will keep supplies adequate in coming days. Millers are preferring hand to mouth buying in wake of bumper crop ahead. Guar seed prices may slip towards 4600 with resistance of 5100.

Mentha oil (Oct) is likely to trade on sideways to higher on improved buying in local market. Prices are holding the support of 980 and likely to move towards 1030 on improved industrial buying. Overall production of mentha oil has been down in year 2022 that will also support firmness in prices

Castor seed (Oct) prices are expected to trade down due to better production outlook in Gujarat. Demand of castor oil will remain sluggish with rising fear of recession and prevailing economic slowdown that will put pressure on prices. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to slip toward 7100 level in near term with resistance of 7400.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

GOLD MCX
Contract: DEC
M*.High: 52093.00
M*.Low: 50286.00

It closed at Rs. 51972.00 on 06th Oct 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 50809.93. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.147. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 52500 for a target of Rs. 51300 with the stop loss of 53100.

NATURAL GAS MCX
Contract: OCT
M*.High: 591.90
M*.Low: 518.30

It closed at Rs. 577.80 on 06th Oct 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 590.78. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.954. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 570 for a target of Rs. 525 with the stop loss of 592.

CASTOR SEED NCDEX
Contract: NOV
M*.High: 7360.00
M*.Low: 7200.00

It closed at Rs. 7266.00 on 06th Oct 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 7366.80. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.600. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 7320 for a target of Rs. 7050 with the stop loss of 7460.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The Perth Mint's sales of gold products in September rose 4.2% month-on-month, while silver sales jumped to their highest in seven years.
  • World Bank cuts India's growth forecast to 6.5% for 2022- 23.
  • India's gold imports in September fell 30% from a year ago to 68 tonnes.
  • The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have agreed collectively to trim the output limit by 2 million barrels per day to support crude oil prices.
  • Nyrstar said that it would shut its Port Pirie lead smelter in Australia for 55 days and a source told Reuters that Glencore was reviewing the sustainability of lead operations at its Portovesme plant in Italy.
  • Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 9.4% year-on-year to 422,888 tonnes in August, the country's statistics agency INE said.
  • Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed with at least two global producers to pay a premium of $99 a tonne over the benchmark price for October-December shipments, down 33% from the previous quarter, said two sources.
  • India’s farm exports between April and August, rose almost 20% on year to $23 billion: DGCIS.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Sharp fall in dollar index gave strong support to the commodities complex; CRB closed up above 302. Dollar index took a breather as the rally was overheated and UN call to put a pause in aggressive interest rate hike to major central banks stimulated selling. Even US treasury yield saw sharp fall. The dollar and bond yields plummeted on hopes that signs of slowing economic growth will force the Federal Reserve to cool the pace of rate hikes. Global crude futures jumped last week, returning to three-week highs, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia, agreed to slash output by 2 million barrels per day just ahead of peak winter season. The OPEC+ cuts compound supply concerns as European Union sanctions on Russian crude and oil products take effect in December and February, respectively. More than half of the 1 million bpd supply cut is expected to come from world's top exporter Saudi Arabia. A draw in U.S. oil stockpiles last week also supported prices. Crude inventories dropped by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 30 to 429.2 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said. Bullion saw terrific upside move, especially Silver which gave approx 5700 points move in a signal day; gave weekly closing near 61000. Gold closed near 52000. Base metals shone on fall in dollar index. Zinc and copper prices rose on Thursday after LME imposed conditions on new metal deliveries from Russia's Ural Mining & Metallurgical Co and a subsidiary. Other metals were also firmer, supported by hopes of improved demand from top consumer China as it ramps up support for its COVID-19-hit economy and speculations grew that Beijing may soon ease coronavirus restrictions.

In spices, jeera continued to move down whereas Dhaniya and Turmeric added flavor in the portfolio. Jeera was down but the downside was limited as most of the spice makers and retail sellers are running with tighter stocks. India has imported about 19 thousand tonnes of Dhaniya during the time period of Jan’22-Jul’22 compared to 4.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. Turmeric arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. Cotton saw revival from the lower side. Castor continued its downside move.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

1st Advance Estimates of 2022-23… “endeavoured to secure from global food crisis”

As the world is facing an uncertain time of food crisis due to global shocks such as conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere, the pandemic’s disruption of livelihoods, market volatility from rising food and energy prices, and extreme weather caused by climate change, our farmers are proving most resilient with their hard work and have given us enough protection from the food crisis and have enabled us to supply food stocks to feed the world.

As per first Advance Estimates for 2022-23, The production of Kharif crops in the country is estimated at 149.92 million tonnes which is 3.9 per cent lower than 2021-22 and higher by 6.98 million tonnes than the average foodgrain production of previous five years’ (2016-17 to 2020-21).

This is despite the fact that the 2022 monsoon has been above normal but has not spread adequately across the regions. As of September 30, the rainfall fared well at 92.5cm, which is 6 per cent above the long period average (LPA) of 86.86 cm.

92.5cm, which is 6 per cent above the long period average (LPA) of 86.86 cm. However, the production clearly outlines the tireless hard work & courage of farmers against rising cost of input, unequal distribution of research by agricultural scientists, and farmer-friendly policies of the Central Government. The government had gone for taking revolutionary steps to strengthen agriculture infrastructure and economic condition of the farmers.

As per 1st Advance Estimates, the estimated production of major kharif crops during 2022-23 is as under:

  • Total production of kharif rice during 2022-23 is estimated at 104.99 million tonnes. It is higher by 4.40 million tonnes than the previous five years’ (2016-17 to 2020-21) average Kharif rice production of 100.59 million tonnes.
  • Production of Maize in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at record 23.10 million tonnes which is higher by 3.21 million tonnes than the average Maize production of 19.89 million tonnes.
  • Production of Kharif nutri / coarse cereals is estimated at 36.56 million tonnes which is higher by 2.92 million tonnes than the average production of 33.64 million tonnes. Total kharif pulses production during 2022-23 is estimated at 8.37 million tonnes.
  • Total kharif oilseeds production in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at 23.57 million tonnes which is higher by 1.74 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production.
  • Total production of sugarcane in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at record 465.05 million tonnes. The production of sugarcane during 2022-23 is higher by 91.59 million tonnes than the average sugarcane production of 373.46 million tonnes.
  • Production of cotton is estimated at 34.19 million bales (of 170 kg each) and production of Jute & Mesta is estimated at 10.09 million bales (of 180 kg each).

The deficient rain in the Northern plains, especially in the Gangetic region, is likely to increase food inflation in the near term as overall paddy production will be hit in these areas due to poor monsoon. However the late withdrawal of the monsoon and its spill over into October, may augur well for the Rabi production.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian rupee hit a record low against the dollar on Friday as rising oil prices, corporate dollar demand and growing fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve battered the currency this week. Rising oil prices were the biggest weight on the rupee this week, given India’s status as the third-largest crude importer in the world. The country imports about 80% of its oil requirements, making the rupee sensitive to any rises in oil prices. Oil prices rose on the back of a “deep” supply cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, and are set for more volatility as the U.S. readies a response to the move. Crude prices are up between 7% and 11% this week, and are set for their biggest weekly gain since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict this year. Recent weakness in the rupee has driven dollar selling by the Reserve Bank of India to support the currency. But this has raised concerns over India’s dwindling foreign exchange reserves. The RBI also hiked interest rates by 50 basis points last week, and reiterated its commitment to tightening monetary policy in the face of a weakening rupee and rising inflation.

USDINR (OCT)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trend for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 81.54 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.80 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 81.17 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 71.51.

One can buy at 82.00 for the target of 83.00 with the stop loss of 81.50.

GBPINR (OCT)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 90.32 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 93.21 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 91.35. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.12.

One can sell at 92.50 for the target of 91.50 with the stop loss of 93.00.

EURINR (OCT) is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trend for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 79.85 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 81.55 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 80.09. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.66.

One can buy at 80.50 for the target of 81.50 with the stop loss of 80.00.

JPYINR (OCT) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 56.48 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 57.55 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 56.75. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.75.

One can buy at 56.80 for the target of 57.80 with the stop loss of 56.30.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

71 IPOs worth more than Rs 1 lakh crore are waiting to hit Dalal Street

After 14 IPOs in the first half of the current financial year, 71 new IPOs are ready to hit Dalal Street soon. Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Navi Technologies, Bikaji Food, and Mobikwik are among the prominent names set to hit the primary market. Presently, 71 companies proposing to raise Rs 1,05,000 crore have Sebi approval. Another 43 companies looking to raise about Rs 70,000 crore are awaiting approval from the market regulator. Out of these 114 companies, 10 are NATCs, looking to raise roughly Rs 35,000 crore.

Tracxn Tech IPO Priced at ₹75-80 per Share, to Open on Oct 10

The ₹310-crore initial public offering (IPO) of Bengaluru-based private market intelligence platform Tracxn Technologies will open on October 10 for subscription. The company has fixed the price band for the IPO at ₹75 to ₹80 per share. The issue will close on October 12. Investors can bid for a minimum of 185 shares and in multiples of 185 shares thereafter. The issue is an offer for sale of up to 3.87 shares by the company's promoters and existing shareholders. For financial year 2021-22, the company has posted a revenue of ₹63.45 crore from operations, a rise of 44.94% compared to ₹43.78 crore in FY2020-21. However, the company posted a loss of ₹4.85 crore for FY2021-22 compared to ₹5.35 crore loss in the previous fiscal.

Deltatech Gaming, Pristine Logistics get Sebi's go-ahead to float IPO

Deltatech Gaming Ltd and Pristine Logistics & Infraprojects Ltd have received Sebi's go-ahead to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). Going by the draft papers, Deltatech Gaming's Rs 550-crore IPO comprises fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 300 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of Rs 250 crore by promoter Delta Corp Ltd. Proceeds worth Rs 150 crore from the fresh issuance will be utilised for organic growth through marketing and business promotion activities, to attract new gamers and retain the existing ones, Rs 50 crore will be used for strengthening the technology infrastructure to develop new capabilities, maintain and manage its existing platform and general corporate purposes. The Gurugram-based company is one of the earliest companies in the real money gaming segment in India. Over the years, the digital gaming company has developed its own platforms, which it continues to evolve. Pristine Logistics & Infraprojects' initial share-sale comprises fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs 250 crore and an OFS of 20,066,269 equity shares by promoters and existing shareholders, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). Proceeds from the fresh issuance will be used to repay debt and for general corporate purposes. Equity shares of both companies will be listed on BSE and NSE.

Ikio Lighting files draft papers with SEBI to raise funds

Ikio Lighting Ltd has filed draft papers with market regulator the Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 350 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 7.50 million shares by shareholders and promoters. The OFS comprises up to six million shares by Hardeep Singh and up to 1.5 million shares by Surmeet Kaur. Singh holds a 60 percent stake in the firm and Kaur the remaining 40 percent. The proceeds from the fresh issue will be used to repay Rs 50 crore in debt. As of August 2022, the firm's debt totalled Rs 70.91 crore. The firm will invest around Rs 236.68 crore in its arm Ikio Solutions to set up a facility in Noida for electronic manufacturing. The firm has four facilities with one in the SIDCUL Haridwar industrial park in Uttarakhand and three in Noida. As of March 2022, it had an annual installed capacity to manufacture 20.31 million LED light pieces. Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors Ltd is the book runner for the issue. The firm is a manufacturer of light-emitting diode (LED) lighting solutions. Primarily an original design manufacturer (ODM), it designs, develops, manufactures and supplies products to customers who further distribute these products under their own brands. As an ODM, the firm offers products in four segments— LED lighting, refrigeration lights, ABS piping and other products. For FY22, revenue from operations stood at Rs 219.90 crore against Rs 159.66 crore a year ago. Net profit for the period stood at Rs 28 crore against Rs 20.58 crore in the previous year.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Tata Mutual Fund launches Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index Fund

Tata Mutual Fund has launched Tata Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index Fund, an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking NIFTY Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index. The New Fund Offer (NFO) opens on October 4 and will close on October 17. Tata Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index Fund will invest in securities covered by NIFTY Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index with 95%-100% allocation, debt and money market instruments upto 5% allocation and will be benchmarked against NIFTY Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index (TRI). "Momentum strategy takes into consideration the past price performance of the stock over a defined period. We believe that price outperformance of a stock captures a lot of good around the stock, hence once a trend is well-established, it may be likely to continue. A carefully crafted investing strategy may provide the confidence necessary to continue with the methodology in all time frames of the market. Our cost-efficient offering through an Index Fund, makes an opportunity for long-term equity investors," said Sailesh Jain, fund manager, Tata Asset Management.

IDFC Mutual Fund launches Transportation and Logistics Fund

IDFC Mutual Fund has launched the IDFC Transportation and Logistics Fund, an open-ended equity scheme that will invest in the transportation and logistics sector, intending to benefit from the multi-year growth opportunity in the mobility services sector. The New Fund Offer will open on October 4 and will close for subscription on October 18. The fund will be managed by Daylynn Pinto. “Rapid urbanization is accelerating growth in personal mobility requirements. Additionally, powerful enablers like a strong demand-led recovery cycle and margin improvement provides visibility for strong earnings growth for the transportation and logistics sector. Growth in this sector is expected to be driven by rising aspirations, enhanced infrastructure, a surge in volumes and exportdriven opportunities. The IDFC Transportation and Logistics Fund will be actively managed by a team which has a strong pedigree and expertise in leveraging the vast opportunities across this attractive value chain,” says Vishal Kapoor, CEO, IDFC AMC.

ICICI Prudential MF launches two target maturity funds

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced the launch of two target maturity funds: ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index Fund and ICICI Prudential Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index Fund. Target Maturity Index Funds are open-ended passively managed funds that replicate the underlying debt index having a specific maturity date. The constituents of the index are generally hold-till-maturity. According to the press release, ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index Fund invests in the constituents of Nifty SDL Dec 2028 index while ICICI Prudential Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index Fund invests in the constituents of Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index. Both the offering aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the total return of the underlying index, subject to tracking errors. ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL Dec 2028 Index Fund will open for subscription on October 4 and closes on October 11. ICICI Prudential Nifty G-Sec Dec 2030 Index Fund will open on October 4 and close on October 10.

HDFC Mutual Fund launches two Smart Beta ETFs

HDFC Mutual Fund has launched HDFC NIFTY200 Momentum 30 ETF and HDFC NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 ETF. The New Fund Offers are open and will close on October 06. Smart Beta investing involves stock selection and weighting based on factors, rather than size, as defined in the underlying index methodology by NSE Indices Limited (NIFTY 50). These investment strategies endeavour to provide better risk-adjusted returns than broad market cap weighted indices. According to the press release, the indices underlying the additional Smart Beta ETFs - HDFC NIFTY200 Momentum 30 ETF & HDFC NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 ETF – have generated higher long-term returns than the NIFTY 200 TRI and the NIFTY 100 TRI, respectively. Both have generated higher average rolling returns over 1, 3, 5 and 10 year horizons compared to the NIFTY 200, 100 and 50 TRI. “Smart Beta investing is popular globally with AUM rising steadily. HDFC AMC is happy to expand index solution offerings for investors that are backed by empirical research. Smart Beta ETFs offer one-shot diversification of portfolio at a low cost, and is a proven tool for investors who seek returns over the long-term. The fund house has 20 years of experience in managing passive funds, which comes with highly disciplined and robust Investment and Risk Management policies and processes,” said Navneet Munot, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, HDFC AMC.

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund launches Transportation and Logistics Fund

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced the launch of ICICI Prudential Transportation and Logistics Fund, an open-ended equity scheme predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities of companies engaged in transportation and logistics theme. The scheme may invest in sectors/stocks that form a part of Nifty Transportation and Logistics TRI which is also the benchmark of the offering. The scheme may follow a buy and hold approach and hence an investment horizon of minimum five years is recommended. NFO opens on October 06 and closes on October 20. Transportation and Logistics theme is considered as an engine for economic growth. The theme consists of industries broadly classified under three key sectors which are Auto Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), Auto Components (Ancillaries), and Logistics. Auto sector today has emerged as a space which is no longer a luxury anymore. The Auto OEM sector with its presence across different products offers multiple investment opportunities including auto ancillaries. Given rising fuel prices and increased focus to reduce emissions, countries globally have adopted EVs in a significant manner. India is expected to follow suit thereby giving rise to multiple investment opportunities.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 06/10/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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