Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global markets looked enthusiastic as investors welcomed progress in Congress standoff over extending the federal debt ceiling. On the flip sides, Euro zone bond yields fell as energy prices declined. On the data front, final purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings from across the euro zone showed business growth dented in September by inflationary pressures and supply chain problems. Another data showed that German industrial output slumped by more than expected in August as supply chain disruptions weighed on Europe’s largest economy. Output fell by 4% month-on-month following an increase of 1.3% in July. While activity in China’s services sector returned to growth in September. The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.4 from 46.7 in August, pulling away from the lowest level seen since the height of the pandemic last year.

Back at home, markets moved higher ahead of Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Decision amid positive cues from global markets. As expected the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained a monetary policy pause, keeping the repo rate unchanged and maintaining the "accomodative" policy stance. This is the eighth consecutive time the MPC maintaining a status quo in rates. Importantly, the RBI sounded optimistic on the growth recovery in Indian economy. Meanwhile, Consumer spending is inching towards the pre-pandemic level according to the second quarter business updates by companies. In another development, output from India’s eight core sectors accelerated for the second successive month in August, rising 11.6%, compared to a 6.9% contraction recorded a year ago, with four sectors registering strong doubledigit growth although crude oil and fertilisers output declined. Fitch Ratings has cut India's economic growth forecast to 8.7 percent for the current fiscal but raised GDP growth projection for FY23 to 10 percent, saying the second COVID-19 wave delayed rather than derail the economic recovery. With the start of the festive season, it is expected that strong buying can be seen in auto, textile and realty stocks. Going forward, market will continue to take direction from both domestic and global factors.

On the commodity market front, CRB crossed the important mark of 250 levels after seven years but couldn’t sustain at higher levels on profit booking in energy and other counters. Dollar index saw a nonstop five week rally on tapering and interest rate hike expectation. It may slow the upside in commodities in days to come. Global oil prices have jumped more than 50% this year, adding to inflationary pressure. Natural gas and coal prices have also climbed. OPEC conveyed that it would stick to its pact for a gradual increase in oil output, sending crude prices to multi-year highs. Crude may trade in a range of 5600-6200 whereas natural gas may see lower levels buying. However, Russia is ready to stabilize energy prices by increasing gas shipments to Europe. Bullion may trade in a range with bullish bias. Employment Change, GDP of UK, Employment Change of euro Area and Germany, Inflation Rate YoY Final of Germany, Core Inflation Rate, FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel and Inflation Rate of US, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Australia, Inflation Rate and New Yuan Loans of China etc are few triggers which one should watch closely while trading in commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee kept Repo rate and the reverse repo rate remain unchanged at 4 percent and 3.35 percent, respectively. The central bank retained the projection for real GDP growth for the financial year 2021-22 at 9.5 percent.
  • India’s merchandise exports jumped 21.35 percent to $33.44 billion in September on a year-on-year basis, mainly due to better performance by key sectors like engineering goods and petroleum products.
  • India’s services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 55.2 in September from 56.7 in August. Economists had forecast the index to rise to 57.0.
Energy
  • Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) has completed the acquisition of SB Energy Holdings Ltd (SB Energy India) in an all-cash deal for which definitive agreements were signed on May 18, 2021. Gautam Adani has announced that the Group would invest over $ 20 billion across the next 10 years in renewable energy generation.
  • Tata Power has signed a three-year commercial agreement with BluWave-ai, the world’s first renewable energy AI company, to operationalize artificial intelligence in day-to-day power distribution in Mumbai.
Automobile
  • Hero MotoCorp launched the all-new XPulse 200 4 Valve. The XPulse – India's first 200cc adventure motorcycle has captivated the youth across the world with its on-road-off-road readiness, cutting-edge technology, and differentiated styling. The new XPulse 200 4 Valve is a powerful addition to the well-rounded X-range of premium portfolio of Hero MotoCorp.
  • Mahindra XUV700 clocked 25,000 bookings in 57 minutes of its booking commencement which is an unprecedented milestone in the Indian automotive industry. The volume of 25,000 XUV700s made available today at the launch prices reflects up to six months of production depending on the variant. It also makes the XUV700 the first four-wheeler in India to hit this milestone.
Retail
  • Reliance Retail Ventures, through its wholly owned subsidiary, 7-India Convenience Retail, has entered into a master franchise agreement with 7- Eleven, Inc. (SEI) for the launch of 7-Eleven® convenience stores in India. The first 7-Eleven store is set to open on Saturday, 09 October 2021 in Andheri East, Mumbai. This will be followed by a rapid rollout in key neighborhoods and commercial areas, across the Greater Mumbai cluster to start with.
Healthcare
  • Piramal Enterprise’s board has approved a composite scheme of arrangement providing for the demerger of its pharmaceuticals business and simplification of the corporate structure to create two listed entities in financial services and pharmaceuticals. The pharmaceuticals business will get demerged from Piramal Enterprises (PEL) and consolidated in Piramal Pharma.
  • Lupin Ltd has received tentative approval from the US health regulator to market generic Brexpiprazole tablets, which are used with anti-depressant medicines for the treatment of major depressive disorder, in the American market.
Transportation
  • Spice Jet Ltd. Chairman Ajay Singh wants to expand the company’s fleet of passenger jets and cargo haulers as the Indian airline’s financial performance recovers after a punishing stretch during the pandemic.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US initial jobless claims fell to 326,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's revised level of 364,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 348,000 from the 362,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US trade deficit widened to a record $73.3 billion in August from a revised $70.3 billion in July. Economists had expected the trade deficit to increase to $70.5 billion from the $70.1 billion originally reported for the previous month.
  • US factory orders surged up by 1.2 percent in August after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.7 percent in July. Economists had expected factory orders to increase by 0.9 percent compared to the 0.4 percent rise originally reported for the previous month.
  • Japan’s leading index, which measures the future economic activity, fell to 101.8 in August from 104.1 in July. This was the lowest since February, when it was 98.9. The coincident index decreased to 91.5 in August from 94.4 in the previous month. This was the lowest since February.
  • Japan posted a current account surplus of 1,665.6 billion yen in August. That exceeded expectations for a surplus of 1,540.9 billion yen and was down from the 1,910.8 billion yen surplus in July. Imports were up 45.9 percent on year to 6,886.2 billion yen, while exports jumped an annual 27.1 percent to 6,513.8 billion yen for a trade deficit of 372.4 billion yen.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

BANK OF BARODA LIMITED
CMP: 88.10
Target Price: 104
Upside: 18%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 99.80/39.50
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 45559.70
  • EPS (Rs.) 6.60
  • P/E Ratio (times) 13.35
  • P/B Ratio (times) 0.54
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Bank of Baroda is an Indian state-owned banking and financial services company headquartered in Vadodara in Gujarat, India. As of 30 June 2021, the Government held 63.97% in the bank.
  • Global deposits stood at Rs.9,31,317 crore. However, the proportion of low-cost current account, savings account (CASA) increased to 43.21 per cent of domestic deposits against 39.49 per cent in the year ago quarter. Global gross advances stood at Rs.7,11,487 crore, with retail advances growing about 12 per cent, agriculture about 9 per cent and MSME about 7 per cent.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) increased to Rs 7,892 crore in Q1FY22 compared with Rs 6,816 crore in Q1FY21, an increase of 15.8% YoY.
  • Global Net interest Margin (NIM) increased to 3.04% in Q1FY22 compared with 2.52% in Q1FY21 led by domestic margins which have now increased to 3.12% in Q1FY22 from 2.59% in Q1FY21.
  • Credit cost in Q1FY22 fell to 1.36% as against 1.78% in Q1FY21, a decline of 42 bps YoY.
  • Gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) ratio declined to 8.86% as on June 30, 2021 against 9.39% as on June 30, 2020. Recovery and upgrades increased to Rs 4,435 crore in Q1FY22 as against Rs 818 crore in Q1FY22. Bank’s NNPA ratio increased to 3.03% as on June 30, 2021 as against 2.83% as on June 30, 2020.
  • Capital adequacy (CRAR) on standalone basis stands at 15.40% with CET-1 at 11.25% as on June 30, 2021 as against 12.84% and 9.08%

    respectively as on June 30, 2020. For the consolidated entity, CRAR and CET-1 stand at 16.38% and 12.35% respectively.

  • Bank reported RoA and RoE of 0.42% and 8.63% respectively in Q1FY22.

Risk

  • Strict Regulatory guidelines
  • Liquidity risk

Valuation

According to the management, Bank of Baroda is expecting growth its corporate loan book in the next few quarters, as government spending has picked up in roads and energy segments. However, retail loan growth will continue to be ahead of corporate loan growth. It also gets the sizable deposits from the overseas branch and total deposits across the geography have grown. Moreover, Bank of Baroda is one of the largest PSU banks with a strong domestic presence spanning 8,192 branches and 11,637 ATMs and Cash Recyclers supported by self-service channels. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.104 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on an expected P/Bvx 0.60 and FY23 (BVPS) of Rs.173.38.

P/B Chart

BHARAT FORGE LIMITED
CMP: 758.20
Target Price: 929
Upside: 22%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 846.60/428.90
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 35300.93
  • EPS (Rs.) 9.93
  • P/E Ratio (times) 76.35
  • P/B Ratio (times) 6.52
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.28
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Bharat Forge manufactures an extensive array of critical and safety components for several sectors including automobiles (across commercial & passenger vehicle), oil & gas, aerospace, locomotives, marine, energy (across renewable and non-renewable sources), construction, mining and general engineering.
  • The management of the company as part of its growth strategy continues to look at enhancing its presence in the Indian manufacturing ecosystem through organic and more importantly inorganic avenues in its core business and newer verticals.
  • Sanghvi Forgings acquisition was completed during Q1FY22 a cost of Rs 77 crore. This facility, although currently small in scale, will play a very meaningful role in expanding the product portfolio of the company to address significant opportunities in the Indian Industrial space over the medium term.
  • During Q1FY22, exports grew by 25.3% but domestic revenue down 21.8%. On a consolidated basis, net profit of Rs 153.65 crore in Q1 FY22 as against a net loss of Rs 125.81 crore in Q1 FY21. Net sales grew 82.61% to Rs 2,107.68 crore in Q1 FY22. EBITDA margins have expanded 300 bps on back of favorable product mix.
  • Standalone capex is about Rs 200-250 crore in FY22. The company has put on strong cost reduction measures along with good product mix. Therefore management expects margins to sustain.
  • According to the management of the company, the outlook for the CV industry in US continues to remain robust in the medium term; supply chain constraints are impeding higher production in the near term.

    Moreover the Q2FY22 growth (over Q1FY22) will be driven by growth across the board i.e. PC India, CV India, Industrial India, CV International, PC International and Industrial exports.

    Risk

    • Economy slowdown
    • Regulatory, taxation and environmental risks

    Valuation

    The company is doing well and it has strong balance sheet and liquidity position. Looking ahead into Q2 FY22, the management of the company expects the overall growth to continue supported by recovery in the domestic MHCV market and sustained improvement in demand levels in the export market. The industrial business is expected to grow in the medium to long term driven by the revival of the capex cycle in India, potential opportunities arising out of various PLI schemes and Defence manufacturing in India. The company will be looking at expanding capacities ahead. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.929 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/BVx of 6x and FY22 BVPS of Rs.154.79.

    P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

The Federal Bank Limited (FEDERALBNK)

The stock closed at Rs 85.45 on 08th October, 2021. It made a 52-week low at Rs 49.80 on 30th October, 2020 and a 52- week high of Rs. 92.50 on 04th March, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 79.57.

Short term and medium term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Apart from this, it is forming an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock closed on verge of neckline breakout of pattern along with high volumes. So, buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 83-84 levels for the upside target of 97-100 levels with SL below 78 levels.

Indian Bank (INDIANB)

The stock closed at Rs 139.70 on 08th October, 2021. It made a 52-week low of Rs 56.20 on 15th October, 2020 and a 52- week high of Rs. 157.00 on 18th February, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 121.77.

Short term and medium term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Apart from this, it is forming an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock closed on verge of neckline breakout of pattern along with high volumes. So, buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 137-139 levels for the upside target of 160-165 levels with SL below 127 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Bulls made a strong come back in Indian markets as Nifty indices posted record closing in the week gone by. Recovery was seen post RBI policy as PSU banks led the market gains along with auto and IT space. From the derivative front, call writers were seen unwinding their positions at 17800 & 17900 strike while put writers were seen shifting at higher bands. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 14.19 % while that for put options closed at 14.88. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 16.16%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.47. Technically both the indices (Nifty and Banknifty) can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern. For upcoming week, 18000 levels will likely to act as a strong hurdle for Nifty while 38000 would act as a strong barrier for the banking index. We expect that the bias is likely to remain in favour of bulls as far Nifty holds 17600 levels on downside.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Bottom 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 7th October, 2021

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric futures (Nov) down 2% last week may trade in a range of 6700-7450 with resistance at 7310 and support at 7230. We see profit booking at higher levels as production in the 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) season is likely to be higher due to favorable weather conditions. Moreover, higher carryover stocks and lack of bulk demand is keeping prices under pressure. Last month, the prices were down by about 8% but prices are still up 30% y/y. In the first 4-months (Apr-Jul) of FY 2021/22, exports down by 26% to 53000 tonnes Vs last year but at par with 5-year average. Jeera futures (Nov) traded flat last week after climbing to one week high and likely to trade sideways in a range 14220-14950 levels with support at 14300 levels and resistance at 14750 levels. Sufficient stocks with traders and farmers are keeping prices under control despite festival demand and export enquiries. Clear weather and comparatively higher prices have increased arrivals in the physical market. Good September rains in Gujarat brighten the prospects for better crop next year. In 2021 (Jan-Jul), country exported 1.75 lakh tonnes (lt) of jeera compared to 1.67 lt last year same time. Dhaniya futures (Nov) traded positive last week due to increased demand for coriander from south India. We expect prices to consolidate in range of 7850- 8200 levels with support at 7930 levels. Clear weather in Rajasthan is helping stockist and farmers to bring their produce to mandis as prices have improved. However, market is looking for export demand for further upward movement in prices. Exports of coriander down 10% during Apr-Jul period to 17830 tonnesVs 19820 tonnes last year but 17.7% higher compared to 5-year average. Sufficient rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan during September expected to help rabi crop in coming season.

BULLIONS

Gold prices were stuck in a narrow range, as investors sought more direction from the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, considered key to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stimulus taper schedule. The dollar index hovered below a one-year high. Stronger dollar has made gold more expensive for other currency holders. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had signalled last month there was broad agreement among policymakers to begin reducing the central bank’s monthly asset purchases as soon as November, as long as the September jobs report was “decent.” Reduced stimulus and higher interest rates lift bond yields, translating into increased opportunity costs of holding bullion that pays no interest. The Senate approved legislation to temporarily raise the federal government’s $28.4 trillion debt limit and avoid the risk of a historic default this month, but it put off until early December a decision on a longerlasting remedy. China held 62.64 million fine troy ounces of gold at the end of September, unchanged from the previous month, official data showed on Thursday. India's gold imports in September soared 658% from last year's lower base as a correction in local prices to the lowest level in nearly six months prompted jewellers to step up purchases for the upcoming festive season, a government source said. Higher imports by the world's second-biggest bullion consumer could support benchmark gold prices , which have fallen nearly 15% from an all-time high of $2,072 in August 2020. Ahead in the week, gold prices may continue to trade in tight range, if 47500 level is not broken. The range for gold is 46100-47900. Silver may also trade with sideways to positive bias where it may take support near 59900-63500.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

Soybean futures (Nov) up more than 3% last week on reports that the arrivals may be late due to unseasonal rains and higher edible prices. It is expected to trade in a range of 5230-5980 levels with support at 5450 levels. Earlier we have witnessed corrections due to new season arrivals and imports of soymeal but higher International edible oil prices keeping domestic oilseed prices supportive. Though the new soybean crop has begun arriving, the arrivals are likely to peak around December due to an erratic monsoon this year. India's soybean production is estimated at 10 mt compared to 8.9 mt last year and weather is still very important as harvesting is at peak. Currently, soybean prices are ruling way higher than the MSP of 3950 rupees per 100 kg. Edible oil prices have trade positively during the last week due to firm international edible oil prices. We have witnessed gradual increase in prices due to festival demand and higher tariff value. Tariff value increased for the month of October by about 100 dollar per tons for both Crude palm oil and Crude soy oil. Malaysian palm oil futures are trading at record high, driven by a rally in crude prices and there is expectation of tighter supplies in coming months. According to Malaysia Palm Oil Association, Crude Palm Oil production in Malaysia during September 1-30 declined to 1.68 million MT, down by -1.44% as compared to same period during August. Despite lower import duty, twice this year, only exporting countries gain from such decisions as prices have increase to all-time highs. Ref Soy oil futures (Nov) is likely to trade in a broad range 1250-1400 with support at 1285 while CPO futures (Oct) likely to trade in a range 1108-1200 with support at 1108.

ENERGY COMPLEX

U.S. crude oil hit its highest since 2014 and Brent futures climbing to a threeyear high, after the OPEC+ group of producers stuck to its planned output increase rather than raising it further. Oil prices have already surged more than 50% this year, adding to inflationary pressures that crude-consuming nations such as the United States and India are concerned will derail recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Late last month, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) said it expected a 1.1 million bpd supply deficit this year, which could turn into a 1.4 million bpd surplus next year. Despite pressure to ramp up output, OPEC+ was concerned that a fourth global wave of COVID-19 infections could hit the demand recovery. Rocketing global natural gas prices, which may incentivize some power generators to switch from gas to oil, mean crude prices are likely to remain supported even though there could be a short-term pullback. Ahead in the week, crude oil trade with positive bias where it may take support near 5690 and could face resistance near 6100. US natural gas jumped to a 12-year high as global shortages of the fuel fanned fears in the country ahead of the winter. With rising energy feedstock costs, major consumers have expressed fear that inflation could eat away gradually returning growth. Strong demand from Europe keeps the arbitrage open, allowing LNG producers to ship the product and profit. Shipping costs are gradually closing the gap, as are higher natural gas prices in the United States. The momentum is still strong. Ahead in the week price may trade in the range of 400-480 levels.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton futures (Oct) jumped 7% and touched all time high of 30940 last week on reports of production loss due to widespread rains in the cotton growing regions Moreover, pest attack in Punjab also supported prices. We expect the price to trade with positive bias towards 30900 with support at 29400. Cotton prices rose in all markets of Maharashtra / Gujarat and North India as well increased in demand from the mills. Moreover, firm trend in International prices due to China demand and lower than expected production too support domestic prices. Guar seed futures (Nov) prices down more than 1% last week and likely to trade in a range of 5600 – 6400 with support at 5720. Currently prices are supportive above prices are supportive above 5700 due to higher crude oil prices and unseasonal rains as harvesting is going on. Currently, the prices are higher by more than 40% y/y due to lower area and consistent export demand. The area under guar in Rajasthan is down by about 4 lakh hac compared to last year at 21 lakh hac, lowest acreage in a decade. Guar gum exports expected to pick-up in October as crude oil prices have risen. Castor Seed (Nov) traded positively last week and expected to trade higher towards 6500 with support at 6285. Persistent export demand for castor oil and meal kept prices higher this season. SEA release castor oil export data for Jul and Aug 2021 which were lower compared to last year but for Apr-Aug period exports are higher at 3.2 lakh tonnes Vs 2.9 lt last year despite higher export prices. The late monsoon rains in September is beneficial for castor area in Gujarat but excessive rains in some area may affect late sown castor crop in the region.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade in wide range with high volatility on upbeat sentiment in global equities, as the United States moved closer to resolving its debtceiling wrangles. The U.S. Senate approved legislation to temporarily raise the federal government's $28.4 trillion debt limit and avoid the risk of a historic default this month, but it put off until December a decision on a longer-lasting remedy. However a firmer dollar on the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve scaling back its pandemic stimulus may put pressure on the metals. Power crunch and soaring energy prices from Europe to China have sent shivers through global markets. Copper may trade in the range 700-745 levels. Chile's copper exports hit $4.157 billion in value in September, up 18.5% from a year earlier, boosted by strong global prices for the metal, the central bank said. Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru said it did not plan to execute this year or next its Coroccohuayco project that provoked protests from nearby residents. Zinc can move in the range of 255-272 levels. Nyrstar's fully electrified zinc smelter in Budel-Dorplein, the Netherlands, is curtailing production during peak times of day when power prices exceed the break-even cost of production. Lead can move in the range of 177-187 levels. Nickel may trade in the range of 1440-1520 levels. Nickel demand is also expected to see a large increase due to the growing battery sector, as well as from the stainless steel sector. Aluminum may move in the range of 230-245 levels. The aluminium capacity in China that was closed due to power shortage and energy consumption control previously did not resume.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 724.75 on 07th Oct’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 746.00 on 13th Sep’2021 and a low of Rs. 684.20 on 19th Aug’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 715.00. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.686.

One can buy near Rs. 715 for a target of Rs. 755 with the stop loss of 700.

CRUDE OIL MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 5860.00 on 07th Oct’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 5977.00 on 08th Oct’2021 and a low of Rs. 4633.00 on 20th Aug’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 5548.98. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.273.

One can buy near Rs. 5700 for a target of Rs. 6200 with the stop loss of Rs. 5500.

SOYA REFINED NCDEX (OCT) contract was closed at Rs. 1323.30 on 07th Oct’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 1411.00 on 26th Aug’2021 and a low of Rs. 1232.00 on 02nd Jul’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1319.90. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.946.

One can sell near Rs. 1345 for a target of Rs. 1275 with the stop loss of Rs 1371.

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COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 23 energy, metals and crop futures contracts, rose to 10- year high. The index has surged more than 90% since reaching a four-year low in March of last year.
  • U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) said the imposed $350-billion tariffs on Chinese goods will not be removed, but announced that the U.S. will bring back an exclusion process to help with the impact problems that several U.S. companies are suffering due to the tariffs.
  • Aluminium prices climbed towards 13-year highs last week, boosted by strong demand and large shortages created by China imposing production curbs on highpolluting industries such as smelting to cut power use and emissions.
  • Strategie Grains has increased its monthly forecast for this year's European Union rapeseed harvest to 17.03 million tonnes from 16.93 million thus it is now 2.5% above 2020's output of 16.61 million tonnes.
  • Malaysia Crude Palm Oil on BMD made an all time high last week on stronger crude oil prices and as market surveys pointed to tightening September stockpiles.
  • ICAC in its monthly report estimates that India cotton output for the season 2021-22 at 395 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) as against the estimated 356 lakh bales for 2020-21.
  • Oil hit a multi-year high above $83 a barrel, supported by OPEC+'s refusal to ramp up production more rapidly against a backdrop of concern about tight energy supply globally.
  • Indonesia conducted its first test flight using jet fuel partially from palm oil on Wednesday as the country plans to commercialize the fuel and seeks creative ways to use the edible oil domestically.
  • As per the United Nations food agency, world food prices rose for a second consecutive month in September to reach a 10-year peak, driven by gains for cereals and vegetable oils.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

CRB crossed the important mark of 250 levels after seven years but couldn’t sustain at higher levels on profit booking in energy and other counters. Dollar index saw a nonstop five week rally on tapering and interest rate hike expectation. The dollar climbed across the board, as surging energy prices fuelled concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes, knocking investors' appetite for riskier assets and driving flows to safe-havens. Bullion saw gradual upside from the previous three weeks, despite rise in dollar index. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries eased off a more than three-month high, but remained above 1.5%. Energy counter was very volatile; saw big swings of both sides. Crude oil hit a seven-year high overnight before easing from its recent gains, while natural gas climbed to a record peak in Europe and coal prices from major exporters also hit all-time highs. After touching the high of 5956 levels, crude prices saw some correction. Oil prices came under pressure from an unexpected rise in U.S. crude stocks that raised concerns over demand after prices rallied to multi-year highs. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels as per EIA, against expectations for a modest dip of 418,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories also rose, while distillate inventories were down slightly. The price of natural gas pulled back sharply on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to stabilize energy prices by increasing gas shipments to Europe. Natural gas hit the high of 485 and then prices cooled down to 425. Base metals were trying to make a base. Most of them saw some lower levels buying after a sharp fall of previous week, except lead. The upside was capped though as China's factory activity unexpectedly shrank in September as high raw material prices and power cuts pressured manufacturers in the world's second-largest economy. The trade volume was limited as the Chinese Market is closed on National Day holiday from October 1 to October 7, 2021.

Spices futures were in pressure on lack of demand. Turmeric futures prices slipped further. The production in the 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) seasons is likely to be higher due to favorable weather conditions. Moreover, huge carryover stocks and lack of bulk demand is keeping prices under pressure. Jeera price were getting support due to on export enquiries, but sufficient stocks with traders and farmers is keeping prices in range. Good September rains in Gujarat brighten the prospects for better crop next year. New demand for coriander from mills in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka kept the downside limited in coriander futures. Soyabean, refined soya oil and mustard got support from the lower side on fresh buying whereas CPO continued to race towards north, made new high in Bursa Malaysia Derivative.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

ENERGY INDEX (ENRGDEX)

The Multi Commodity Exchange of India has launched the iCOMDEX Energy Index futures, India's first tradable Energy Futures Index on 7th October 2021. The iCOMDEX Energy Index tracks the real-time price movement of near month crude oil and natural gas future contracts, according to exchange. The regulator has allowed the exchange to start trading for futures contracts expiring in November, December and January 2022 on the energy index.

MCX iCOMDEX Eullion Index is one of the sectoral indices in the MCX iCOMDEX family. The Index is an efficient tool for investors looking to manage their investments in energy and, being an excess returns index, it is ideal for benchmarking and trading. Energy and natural gas will have weight of 75% and 25%, respectively, on the energy index.

MCX COMDEX is a significant barometer for the performance of commodities market and would be an ideal investment tool in commodities market over a period of time. This is the maiden flagship real-time Composite Commodity Index in India based on commodity futures prices of an exchange launched in June 2005.

MCX iCOMDEX ENERGY FUTURES CONTRACT SPECIFICATION

Advantage of MCX iCOMDEX bullion

  • Portfolio diversification due to low correlation to equity
  • Easy of trading in a basket of commodities
  • Availability of monthly contracts
  • Relatively small size of the contract
  • Liquid underlying constituent (futures) contracts
  • Possible to create trading strategies with the underlying (futures) index constituents
  • Cash settled at expiry and devoid of delivery/tender period margins
  • Optimization of asset allocation
  • Sectoral benchmark
  • Ease to replicate with minimal tracking errors

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Market Stance

Indian Rupee hit the lowest level in 5 months after oil prices reached three years high. Additionally dollar got strengthened following the higher US yields notably 10 year benchmark hits 1.56%. However later on this week, rupee reversed some of its losses tracking an improved risk appetite after crude oil prices retreated from multi-year highs. Going forward, next week US monthly payroll numbers will impact the dollar move. Any upbeat payroll release will support dollar in the coming days. From the majors, euro fell to the lowest level in 11 months amid stronger dollar mode. With no major economic news this week the euro has not changed from the lowest level. Additionally markets did not react to outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comment that Germany should not fully embrace fiscal union in the euro zone without conditionality. We do think the weakness in euro-rupee pair likely to continue and break below 86.00 on spot may trigger more downside as well. While pound continued to outperform after September's losses. However the UK pound moved little as markets showed no reaction to comments from Bank of England member Huw Pill that he is becoming increasingly concerned with the UK’s inflation outlook.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (OCT)) contract closed at 74.8700 on 07-Oct-21. The contract made its high of 75.2250 on 06-Oct-21 and a low of 74.2950 on 04-Oct-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 74.3503.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.03.One can buy at 74.75 for the target of 75.75 with the stop loss of 74.25.

GBP/INR (OCT)) contract closed at 101.8775 on 07-Oct-21. The contract made its high of 102.0800 on 06-Oct-21 and a low of 100.5200 on 04-Oct-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 101.5089.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.12. One can buy at 101.75 for a target of 102.75 with the stop loss of 101.25.

News Flows of last week

8th OCT RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 4%
7th OCT BoE's Pill says size and duration of inflation spike bigger than expected
6th OCT Power crunch in China and India stokes global growth anxiety
5th OCT US and Chinese officials to hold high-level meeting in Switzerland
5th OCT Embattled IMF chief Georgieva tells world leaders they need to ‘build trust’
5th OCT US oil price hits 7-year high
5th OCT Boris Johnson denies Britain faces economic crisis
4th OCT Overseas interest in UK truck jobs keenest among those not qualified
4th OCT US urges China to fully honour trade pact signed with Trump

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (OCT)) contract closed at 86.6350 on 07-Oct-21. The contract made its high of 86.8250 on 06-Oct-21 and a low of 86.1900 on 04-Oct-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 86.6350.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.63. One can sell at 87.00 for a target of 86.00 with the stop loss of 87.50.

JPY/INR (OCT)) contract closed at 67.2525 on 07-Oct-21. The contract made its high of 67.5000 on 06-Oct-21 and a low of 66.8800 on 06-Oct-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 67.1827.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.22. One can buy at 67.00 for a target of 68.00 with the stop loss of 66.50.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

Sebi proposes minimum price band for IPOs, sub-categorisation of NIIs

Markets regulator Sebi proposed a minimum price band of 5 per cent for public issues through book built process and sub-categorisation of non-institutional investors. Sebi has invited comments on its proposals in a consultation paper for review of price band and book building framework for public issues. The recommendations came as Sebi observed that the price band provided by issuer companies on the main board are extremely narrow. Several concerns were deliberated upon by the Primary Market Advisory Committee (PMAC).

Sebi proposes sweeping changes to HNI allotment process for IPOs

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has mulled a new approach for price discovery and share allotment process for so-called high networth individuals (HNIs) in an initial public offering (IPO). In a consultation paper issued, the regulator has proposed a category within category for high-networth individuals (HNI) to safeguard the interest of those that submit relatively low-ticket bids. A minimum five per cent price band---difference between lower and upper end has also been proposed. Sebi has issued concerns over large HNIs crowding out smaller ones during an IPO. It has been proposed to divide the HNI bucket into two. The first one will be for those submitting applications in the range between Rs 2 lakh and Rs 10 lakh. The second for those submitting bids worth Rs 10 lakh or more.

Mobikwik gets SEBI nod to float IPO, issue likely before Diwali

Online payments and lending firm Mobikwik has got the SEBI approval for its maiden public issue. MobiKwik had on July 12 filed its draft documents to raise Rs 1,900 crore via a public offering, the latest among a slew of internet companies wanting to list on stock exchanges. About Rs 1,500 crore will be primary share sales while up to Rs 400 crore will be secondary share sales where existing investors can sell their stake. Founded in 2009 by husband-wife duo Bipin Preet Singh and Upasana Taku, One MobiKwik Systems Limited was last valued at $700 million when it raised $20 million last month from Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA).

Fino Payments Bank gets Sebi nod for initial share saleto raise Rs 1,300 cr

Markets regulator Sebi has given its nod for the initial public offering of Fino Payments Bank, which is looking to raise around Rs 1,300 crore. Besides, Keralabased Popular Vehicles and Services Ltd has received approval from the watchdog for an Initial Public Offering (IPO). Sebi has issued observation letters for the proposed IPOs, according to the latest update by the regulator. An observation letter is mandatory for an initial share sale. In Sebi parlance, the issuance of observations implies its go-ahead for the IPO. Fino Payments Bank's IPO includes a fresh issue of equity shares worth Rs 300 crore and an Offer For Sale (OFS) of 15,602,999 equity shares by promoter Fino Paytech. The IPO is estimated to be worth Rs 1,300 crore. Proceeds from the fresh issue would be used towards augmenting the bank's tier-1 capital base to meet its future capital requirements.

PKH Ventures files draft papers with Sebi to raise funds through IPO

Diversified company PKH Ventures Ltd has filed draft papers for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) with markets watchdog Sebi. The offer will be for up to 2,92,73,000 shares, including fresh issue to the tune of 2,42,73,000 shares and 50,00,000 shares to be offloaded through Offer for Sale (OFS) route, the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) said. The Mumbai-based company is mainly into three verticals -- construction and development, hospitality, and management services. It is looking to raise around Rs 500 crore through the IPO. Out of the fresh issue proceeds, Rs 135.94 crore will be utilised for an investment in Halaipani Hydro Project Pvt Ltd and Rs 100 crore will be used for investment in Makindian Foods Pvt Ltd towards the development of its project in Amritsar. Besides, Rs 60 crore will be for funding Garuda Construction and for general corporate purposes. The hydro power project is in Arunachal Pradesh. Monarch Networth Capital Ltd is the book running lead manager to the issue. PKH Ventures owns and operates two hotels and manages one resort and spa at Aamby Valley, Lonavala. Among others, it manages and operates restaurants under the brand name Zebra Crossing, Hardy's Burger and Mumbai Salsa.

Adar Poonawalla-backed pharmacy chain Wellness Forever files for IPO

Adar Poonawalla backed pharmacy chain Wellness Forever Medicare is planning to go for an initial public offering (IPO) to raise between Rs 1,500-1,600 crore. The omni-channel retail pharmacy chain has already filed a draft red herring prospectus with the market regulator. The pharmacy chain’s revenue for the financial year ended March 31, 2021, grew to Rs 924.02 crore, from Rs 863.25 crore in the previous fiscal year. This will be the second pharmacy chain to file for an IPO after Hyderabad-based MedPlus, which filed its DRHP with Sebi in August. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating to Rs 400 crore and an offer for sale up to 1.60 crore equity shares, according to DRHP. The company proposes to utilise net proceeds from the fresh issue to the tune of Rs 70.20 crore for funding capital expenditure for setting up new outlets, repayment or prepayment in part or full of certain borrowings amounting to Rs 100 crore, funding its working capital requirements to the extent of Rs 121.90 crore besides general corporate purposes. The Mumbai-based brand Wellness Forever founded by Ashraf Biran, Gulshan Bakhtiani and Mohan Chavan in 2008, has 236 stores across 23 cities in Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka.

Oyo files DRHP for $1.2 bn IPO; founder, key investors not diluting stake

The Gurugram-based travel technology company filed the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) for its Rs 8,430 crore ($1.2 billion) IPO with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). According to the draft papers, investors including Agarwal, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Sequoia Capital, Star Virtue Investment (Didi), Greenoaks Capital, AirBnB, HT Media, and Microsoft will not dilute their shareholding. The DRHP names Agarwal, RA Hospitality Holdings (Cayman), and SVF Holdings (Cayman) as the main promoters of Oyo. While Agarwal and RA Hospitality together own 33.15 per cent of the company, SVF Holdings owns 46.62 per cent. The OFS comprises aggregate shares from a small part of SVF India (Softbank Vision Fund), A1 Holdings (Grab), China Lodging, and Global IVY Ventures LLP. According to the DRHP, Oyo plans to use the net proceeds to repay the debt availed by some of its subsidiaries, fund organic and inorganic growth initiatives, and for general corporate purposes. It intends to use Rs 2,441 crore for prepayment or repayment, in part, of some borrowings by its subsidiaries and plans to utilise Rs 2,900 crore for funding organic and inorganic growth. The company and its stakeholders may, in consultation with the lead managers, consider a further issue of equity shares up to Rs 1,400 crore, the documents say.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

HDFC Mutual Fund files for nine exchange traded funds with SEBI

HDFC Mutual Fund (MF), the country's third largest fund house in terms of asset size, has filed for nine exchange traded funds (ETFs) with SEBI. These schemes include HDFC Nifty 100 ETF, Nifty Next 50 ETF, Nifty Private Bank ETF, Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF, Nifty 100 Quality 30 ETF, Nifty 200 Momentum 30 ETF, and a few others. The recent filings show that the fund house wants to offer several products to investors within the passivelymanaged funds. So far, the fund house has had just a few passively-managed funds, which are regular products such as Nifty and Sensex-based funds, one banking sector-linked passive fund and a gold ETF. Most of the investor assets of HDFC MF are held in actively-managed schemes, which is where the fund house had got recognition on the back of its active scheme performances in the past. In September, 2021, HDFC MF launched its first international fund -- Developed World Indexes Fund of Funds - which was also passively-managed fund

Mahindra Manulife launches APAC-focused REIT fund of funds

Mahindra Manulife Investment Management Private Ltd (MMIMPL) on September 28 launched ‘Mahindra Manulife Asia Pacific REITs FOF’, an openended fund of fund scheme investing in Manulife Global Fund – Asia Pacific REIT Fund. The new fund offer opens on September 28 and closes on October 12, the asset management company said, adding that the scheme will reopen for continuous sale and repurchase from October 22. "The scheme is suitable for investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio and build exposure to real estate markets internationally," it said. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) may be one of the key beneficiaries amid the global search-for-yield, with the potential recovery on the back of rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and reopening of economies, the company added. Mahindra Manulife Asia Pacific REITs FOF will invest in Manulife Global Fund - Asia Pacific REIT fund, which allocate funds predominantly in REITs across Asia Pacific countries, it noted. REITs’ comparatively low correlation with other assets also makes them a portfolio diversifier that can help enhance portfolio returns over a medium to long term period.

Axis MF renames Axis Dynamic Equity as Axis Balanced Advantage

Axis Mutual Fund has renamed and repositioned its exiting scheme Axis Dynamic Equity Fund into Axis Balanced Advantage Fund with effect from October 1. Axis Balanced Advantage Fund is an open ended dynamic asset allocation fund which manages exposure actively between equity and fixed income. The fund house will follow in house methodology to determine the asset allocation. The scheme can also invest in units of REITs and InvITs.

SEBI allows launch of silver exchange-traded funds in India

The Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has established electronic gold and silver ETFs, two new investment vehicles. Sebi has created a framework wherein gold will be transacted in the form of 'Electronic Gold Receipt' (EGR) at stock exchanges. Silver ETFs have been approved by the market regulator. It will follow the same regulatory framework as existing gold ETFs. As a result, fund companies will be able to sell silver ETFs in the near future.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 07/10/2021
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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