2019: Issue 694, Week: 29th July - 02nd August

A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only)




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From The Desk Of Editor


n the week gone by, global stock markets largely remained positive but worries I over trade and slower global economy continues to remain a worry factor. Contraction in the manufacturing sector of the Euro zone party attributed to global trade tensions is threatening to infect the services sector. In the policy review meeting, European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged but said significant monetary stimulus is needed as the outlook is getting worse. U.S. Federal Reserve is too expected to cut rates going next week in the monetary policy review meeting amid signs of slowing economy. Top US and Chinese negotiators will meet face-to-face meet in Shanghai next week for two days in the next round of negotiations aimed at de-escalating a tariff war between the two countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) further reduced its global growth outlook. It said that policy “missteps” on trade and Brexit could derail a projected rebound.

Back at home, Indian stock markets remained under pressure on the back of weaker guidance by some of the major companies over languishing consumption growth and mixed set of results. Undoubtedly, domestic markets are seen struggling with not only domestic but global issues too. The rupee too remained weak against the US dollar amid sustained foreign fund outflows and firm crude oil prices. Cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season upto 24th July, 2019 is below LPA by 19%. Weaker than expected rainfall could further weaken the rural demand and would be detrimental to the overall slowing consumption demand. Indeed, the outcome of US Federal meeting and Reserve Bank of India will be the key events to watch out. Besides, going forward, factors such as June quarterly earnings, progress of monsoon, trend in global markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement, inflows and outflow of funds from foreign and domestic investors are expected to give direction to the market.

On the commodity market front, CRB saw further decline as selling pressure grip was everywhere in commodities counter. Bullion counter may see some profit booking can be seen from higher levels. Bullion counter may remain on a volatile path as some profit booking can be seen at higher levels. Gold can dip lower as it can test 34200 levels in MCX while taking resistance of 35500 levels while silver can test 40500 levels while taking resistance near 42000 levels. Crude oil may take support near 3800 levels while taking resistance near 4100 levels. Going forward, BOJ Rate Decision, BOJ Outlook Report, CPI of Germany, Australia German Unemployment Claims Rate, GDP of Euro Zone, Canada and Italy, PCE Core, Consumer Confidence Index¸ FOMC Rate Decision, Fed Chair Powell Holds Press Conference After FOMC Meeting, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Employment ¸ Change in Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate of US, Bank of England Bank Rate, RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI, Manufacturing PMI of China, etc are strong triggers for the commodity market in this week.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.




Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

• Dr Reddy's Laboratories has launched generic Ramelteon tablets used for treatment of insomnia in the US market. The company has launched Ramelteon tablets in the str8 mgength of 8 mg after getting approval by the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA).

• Laurus Labs Ltd along with its exclusive distribution partner Rising Pharmaceuticals announced the launch of generic version of Lyrica (pregabalin) capsules in the US market.

• Alembic Pharmaceuticals has received approval from the US health regulator for Pregabalin Capsules, indicated for management of neuropathic pain associated with certain illnesses. The approved product is therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug Lyrica Capsules of PF Prism CV.

Consumer Durables

• Blue Star has won Rs 253 crore order from the Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation Ltd (MMRCL). The scope of this order includes design, engineering, supply, installation and commissioning of the air conditioning, tunnel ventilation and environmental control system for nine underground stations and associated tunnels on line 3 corridor of the Mumbai Metro between Mumbai Central and Bandra.

Information Technology

• Nucleus Software announced the launch of the latest version of its transaction banking solution FinnAxia 6.5. This comprehensive transaction banking solution FinnAxia introduces a revolutionary real-time AI-enabled anomaly detection capability,which enables financialinstitutions to detect fraudulentandduplicatetransactionsearlyandproactivelyactonthem.


• Tata Steel will make an investment of Rs 5,000 crore and chalk out a plan to lower its logistics cost in a phased manner. The immediate plan is to own eight to nine rail rakes. This will be done in the next one year through Tata Martrade International Logistics (TMILL). TMILL is a joint venture of Tata Steel, NYK Holding (Europe), and Germany-based IQ Martrade Holding und Managementgesellschaft.

Oil & Gas

• IOC has set a target to invest another Rs 1 trillion in Odisha, as it intends to set up petrochemical units, notably a naphtha cracker unit.


• NTPC Ltd signed a memorandum of understanding to float a joint venture to set up 800 mw technology demonstration plant at NTPC’s existing power plant in Sipat, Chhattisgarh.


• US durable goods orders spiked by 2.0 percent in June after plunging by a revised 2.3 percent in May. Economists had expected durable goods to climb by 0.7 percent compared to the 1.3 percent slump originally reported for the previous month

• US jobless claims fell to 206,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. The drop surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 219,000.

• US new home sales spiked by 7.0 percent to an annual rate of 646,000 in June after plunging by 8.2 percent to a revised rate of 604,000 in May. Economists had expected new home sales to jump by 5.4 percentto a rate of660,000fromthe626,000originallyreportedforthepreviousmonth.

• US housing starts slid by 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.253 million in June after slipping by 0.4 percent to a revised rate of 1.265 million in May. Economists had expected housing starts to fall by 0.6 percent to a rate of 1.261 million from the 1.269 million originally reported for the previous month.

• Producer prices in Japan were up 0.7 percent on year in June, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday - shy of expectations for 0.8 percent and down from the upwardly revised 0.9 percent gain in May (originally 0.8 percent). On a monthly basis, producer prices eased 0.1 percent after sliding 0.2 percent in the previous month.


Stocks *Closing Price Trend Date Trend Changed Rate Trend Changed SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing S/l
S&P BSE SENSEX 37883 UP 08.02.19 36546 36300 35300
NIFTY50 11284 UP 08.02.19 10944 10900 10600
NIFTY IT 15348 UP 21.07.17 10712 15200 14800
NIFTY BANK 29325 UP 30.11.18 26863 27700 27000
ACC 1582 DOWN 14.06.19 1549 1620 1640
BHARTIAIRTEL 335 UP 15.03.19 338 370 380
BPCL 344 DOWN 12.07.19 346 370 380
CIPLA 532 UP 01.03.19 552 530 520
SBIN 343 UP 02.11.18 286 340 330
HINDALCO 198 DOWN 17.05.19 192 210 215
ICICI BANK 416 UP 02.11.18 355 400 390
INFOSYS 787 UP 14.12.18 706 730 710
ITC 270 DOWN 31.05.19 279 290 295
L&T 1392 UP 08.03.19 1339 - 1380
MARUTI 5806 DOWN 26.04.19 6 6843 6400 6600
NTPC 129 UP 08.03.19 127 124 120
ONGC 142 DOWN 12.07.19 149 160 165
RELIANCE 1214 DOWN 26.07.19 1214 1280 1310
TATASTEEL 446 DOWN 10.05.19 487 480 490

*LT has broken the support of 1430

Closing as on 16-08-2019


1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.


Meeting Date Company Purpose
29/07/2019 Dr Reddy's Labs Quarterly Results
29/07/2019 DLF Quarterly Results
30/07/2019 Hero Motocorp Quarterly Results
30/07/2019 Axis Bank Quarterly Results
30/07/2019 Tech Mahindra Quarterly Results
31/07/2019 Apollo Tyres Quarterly Results
31/07/2019 Ashok Leyland Quarterly Results
31/07/2019 Eicher Motors Quarterly Results
31/07/2019 I O C L Quarterly Results
1/8/2019 Marico Quarterly Results
1/8/2019 BhartiAirtel Quarterly Results
1/8/2019 Godrej Consumer Quarterly Results,Interim Dividend
2/8/2019 Bata India Quarterly Results
2/8/2019 H D F C Quarterly Results& Others
2/8/2019 ITC Quarterly Results
2/8/2019 St Bk of India Quarterly Results
5/8/2019 Berger Paints Quarterly Results
5/8/2019 Torrent Power Quarterly Results
Ex-Date Company Purpose
29/07/2019 Titan Company 500% Dividend
29/07/2019 Lupin 250% Dividend
31/07/2019 Cipla 150% Dividend
31/07/2019 Cummins India 500% final Dividend
31/07/2019 The Ramco Cement 300% Dividend
31/07/2019 Shree Cement 350% Final Dividend
1/8/2019 Britannia Inds. 1500% Dividend
1/8/2019 HDFC Bank 250% Special Dividend
2/8/2019 Reliance Inds. 65% Final Dividend
7/8/2019 Dabur India 150% Final Dividend
8/8/2019 IndusInd Bank 75% Dividend
8/8/2019 GAIL (India) 8.85% Final Dividend





Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

ACC Limited


Target Price:1801



Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 1768.40/1322.20
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 29744.56
EPS (Rs.) 92.82
P/E Ratio (times) 17.06
P/B Ratio (times) 2.71
Dividend Yield (%) 0.88
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• ACC is India's foremost manufacturer of cement and concrete.Thecompany isengagedinthemanufacture ofcementandready-mixedconcrete.

• Despite subdued demand, its operational performance improved substantially this Q2CY19, owing to its deep penetration in rural markets and strong focus on premium products.

• For quarter ended June 2019, consolidated total income from operation inclined 8% to Rs 4,149.82 crore, due to improvement in cement realization, operational efficiencies and supply chain efficiency improvement. The company's cement sales volumes were flat at 7.20 million tonnes during the quarter, while cement realization improved by 7.2% to Rs 5,335 per ton.

• The company's ready mix concrete business continued to deliver robust sales volume growth of 11% with its focus on value added solutions and strengthened customer network. It also widened its national presence with the addition of eight new plants during the quarter. ACC now has 82 operational ready mix plants in India.

• The cement segment revenue, contributing 91% of total revenue, gained 7% to Rs 3,841.39 crore. The ready-mix concrete (RMC) segment revenue, contributing 9% of total revenue, grew 14% to Rs 365.82 crore. The Operating Margin (OPM) has improved to 18.9% and as a result the operating profit (OP) grew 25% to Rs 738.02 crore.

• The company's strong customer relationships, loyal channel network and range of innovative products helped in delivering a robust quarter. In its outlook,

management of the company expects higher annual budget allocation for infrastructure, affordable housing, up gradation of roads and the government's strong focus on connectivity will drive cement demand and aid growth going forward.


• Regulatory norms changes

• Fluctuation in commodity prices


The company made significant progress on its goals in the quarter with strong operating performance including good net sales growth. The operating profit of the company has improved significantly and Management believes, higher annual budget allocation for infrastructure, affordable housing, up gradation of roads and Government's strong focus on improving connectivity across the country will drive cement demandgoing forward.Thus,itisexpectedthatthestock will see a price target of Rs.1801 in 8 to 10 months time frameononeyearaverageP/BVof2.71xandCY20 (BVPS)BookValueper shareofRs.664.72.

Dabur india limited


Target Price:484



Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 490.70/357.10
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 74746.45
EPS (Rs.) 8.71
P/E Ratio (times) 48.55
P/B Ratio (times) 13.27
P/BDividend Yield (%) 0.59
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• Dabur India operates in key consumer products categories like hair care, oral care, health care, skin care, home care and foods.

• The company has earmarked capex (capital expenditure) of Rs 250-300 crore, with this company plans to increase capacity this year. The company has just done a couple of acquisitions in South Africa, and is looking at doing something "substantial" in India going forward.

• The company has expanded its distribution reach in Rural India and now it covers to around 48000 villages as compared to 44000 villages in Mar 19. The rural demand still continue to remain better than urban, however the pace is not on expected line. The company has also increased branding and advertisement. Additional discounts were provided in modern trade.

• The Health Supplements business for Dabur ended Q1 with a 19.6% growth. The Digestives category, led by Hajmola and PudinHara, ended the quarter with an 18.2% growth. The OTC and Ayurvedic Ethicals business grew by 14.5% during Q1l. While the Hair Oil business, led by strong demand for Dabur Am la Hair Oil, reported a 12.1% growth, the Shampoo category grew by around 11%. The Skin Care category grew by over 12%, while the Toothpaste business,led by strong demand for Dabur Red Paste, posted an 11.4% growth during the first quarter. The Home Care business grew bynearly11%duringthefirstquarterof2018-19.

• According to the management, input cost inflation is benignwhile prices are expected to stay softin FY20E. The company has taken a price hike of1.5% during the

quarter,whichitexpects toremainat2%fortheyear.It alsoexpects tomaintainoperatingmarginsat20%.


• Currency volatility, geopolitical disturbances across geographies, slowdown in category growth rates


Despite tough operating conditions and high competitive pressures, Dabur brands reported a robust performance during the quarter ended June 2019, growing ahead of the market, delivering strong double-digit growth and gaining market share across key categories like Health Supplements, Hair Care, Oral Care and Foods. Its increased focus on the Consumer Health space and disproportionately higher investments behind Power Brands has started paying dividend. The company will continue to invest behind brands, accelerate on product innovation efforts, and enhance capabilities for sustainable future growth. Thus it is expected that the stockwill seeapricetargetofRs.484in8-10months time frame on the one yeartarget PE multiple of 52 times and FY20EEPSofRs.9.31.

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.



Beat the Street-Technical Analysis

Gujarat State Petronet Limited (GSPL)

The stock closed at Rs 209.35 on 26th July, 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 148.65 on 21st February 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 214.55 on 17th July 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 185.42

The stock is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows on weekly charts, which is considered to be bullish. Apart from this, it is forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on daily chart and has given the breakout of same. It also managed to close above so buying momentum can continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 203-206 levels for the upside target of 226-230 levels with SL below 191.

HeidelbergCement India Limited (HEIDELBERG)

The stock closed at Rs 206.15 on 26th July, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 121.50 on 24th October 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 215 on 29th May 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 175.04

As we can see on chart that stock has been consolidating since last two months and has formed a “Continuation Triangle” on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock has given the breakout of same by gained over 2% and also has managed to close above the same so follow up buying may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 200-203 levels for the upside target of 222-226 levels with SL below 190.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




After six consecutive sessions of fall and throbbing July series, Indian markets started August series on a positive note, supported by short covering in Auto, PSU bank & Pharma sector. The options open interest concentration is at the 11400-strike calls with the highest open interest of above 16 lakh shares; among put options, the 11200-strike taking the total open interest to 21 lakh shares, with the highest open interest among put options. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 12.08% while that for put options closed at 12.39%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 12.64% and is expected to remain sideway. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.50, which indicates OTM put writing. From derivative front, 11200 levels should act as a strong support for Nifty going forward as put writers were seen adding open interest in 11200 strike. On higher side, however 11300-11350 levels will act as an immediate resistance for Nifty. After a steep fall from 11650 till 11250 levels, we expect markets to consolidate in broader range of 11200-11350 before taking another decisive move.












Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering




Turmeric futures (Aug) is expected to trade with a downside bias in the range of 6650-7050 levels. The sowing operations are almost inching to close with 87% done in the state of Telegnana. It is reported by the agriculture department that as on 25h June, turmeric has been sown on 42466 hectares against the target area of 48673 hectares. Giving a negative reaction, the spot prices have started dipping further in the major spot markets. Jeera futures (Aug) is on the verge of breaking the support near 17550 levels and thereafter may witness correction towards 17200-17000 levels. The spot prices are not showing firmness due to slowdown in overseas and domestic demand. High moisture content in the spice due to rains in key-growing regions has discouraged fresh buying despite slowdown in arrivals. The trend of dhaniya futures (Aug) trading near three months low has reversed its trend to bearish after the steep correction that occurred last week on the reports of higher imports from overseas markets. In days to come, we may see an extended downtrend towards 6000- 5800 levels. Cardamom futures (Aug) is ready to get skyrocketed to test 3500-3700 levels. Arrivals of the new crop of cardamom have started at the auction centres in Bodinayakanur in Tamil Nadu and Vandanmedu in Kerala. Planters are plucking cardamom even before the fruit is mature to avail of the record-high prices. Although there has been a correction of 50 rupees per kg since the new crop started arriving in markets, prices are unlikely to fall much in the long term even when arrivals double in Sep-Oct due to huge shortage of the spice in the domestic market.


Bullion counter may remain on a volatile path as some profit booking can be seen at higher levels amid surge in greenback and the fact that expectation of rate cut in this week by Fed is already discounted in the prices. Market participants are now looking ahead to the U.S. central bank's July 30-31 monetary policy meeting where it is expected to trim its interest rate by at least 25 basis points. The Fed committee will be thinking about two main factors. One is that inflation continues to be low, despite the fact that unemployment is also low by historical standards. Nearly eight years ago, Fed adopted an inflation target of 2 percent, which has largely remained out of reach. The ECB signaled its intention to explore monetary easing, but left interest rates unchanged, and bank President Mario Draghi struck a more upbeat tone on the economy than investors expected. Gold can dip lower as it can test 34200 in MCX while taking resistance of 35500 while silver can test 40500 while taking resistance near 42000. In the United States, manufacturing activity slowed to a 10-year low in early July with production volumes and purchases falling. Weak housing and manufacturing are offsetting strong consumer spending, holding back the economy and posing a threat to the longest expansion in history. In India, the world's second-biggest gold consumer, dealers were forced to offer the highest discounts since August 2016, at about $33 over official domestic prices. This compared with $20 discounts in penultimate week.


Soybean futures (Aug) is likely to cling on the support near 3540 levels, while an upside of 3665-3680 can be seen on account of short covering coupled with lower level buying. This oilseed's yield is under threat in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Some soybean-growing regions in Maharashtra's Vidarbha and Marathwada are yet to start sowing, which is already delayed by five to six weeks. Mustard futures (Aug) is expected to show an upside momentum towards 3970-3990 levels, taking support near 3900 levels. The arrivals on the spot markets are slowing down gradually and on the flip side, it is anticipated that looking at the crunch on the supply side, demand may pickup from oil millers and mustard meal exporters. Soy oil futures (Aug) is expected to retest the contract high near 745 levels, while CPO futures (Aug) may gain further strength and head towards 535, if it breaches the resistance near 520 levels. It has been reported recently that the Farm ministry has proposed a cess on imported edible oils to discourage the influx of cheaper oil and support domestic oilseed farmers. In a new development, the agriculture ministry has proposed a cess on imports of all edible oils to check huge arrival of cheaper oil in the country, adding that quantum of the cess is yet to be decided. The government already levies higher import duties, ranging between 40% and 54%, on edible oils to prevent cheap imports from flooding the domestic market. Despite the high duties, imports of crude palm oil have been on the rise due to a sharp fall in global prices, hurting the domestic refining industry.


Crude oil prices may continue to witness volatile movement as global economic growth is likely to slow further amid the U.S.-China trade war, although tensions in the Middle East will limit the downside. Crude oil may take support near 3800 levels while taking resistance near 4100 levels. While concerns over Middle East supply disruptions have led to recent price spikes, oil has generally been under pressure from worries about global economic growth amid growing signs of harm from the rumbling Sino-U.S. trade war over the past year. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, and delivery hub fell by 448,000 barrels, although gasoline stocks rose by 4.4 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 730,000-barrel decline. Iran’s capture of a British oil tanker recently sparked worries about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows. The tensions come as the United States aims to cut off Iran’s oil exports and against the backdrop of supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries since the start of the year to prop up prices. U.S. shale producers are poised to further trim spending this year, that provide drilling and hydraulic fracturing services. Natural gas may witness selling pressure and it can test 145 while taking resistance near 165. EIA forecasts that Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.50 per million British thermal units MMBtu in the second half of 2019 and $2.77 per MMBtu in 2020.


Cotton futures (Aug) may give a good buying opportunity near 20750, eyeing a target of 21550 levels. The optimism is returning to the market participants after the news that the Chinese government has approved several domestic companies to buy U.S. cotton, corn, sorghum and pork without being subject to hefty retaliatory tariff. Even some textile mills have been given permission to purchase a total 50,000 tons of U.S. cotton without paying the 25% retaliatory duty. Back at home, cotton prices are still elevated owing to better quality and lower output in the last season. The trend of cocud futures (Aug) is bullish & can test 3300 levels. Cotton is the primary raw material for cottonseed oilcake & there is drought-like situation in the key growing states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. The Cotton Association of India has cut its production estimate due to a sharp fall in yield to 420.7 kg per ha, the lowest in 10 years. The association sees cotton production this season at 31.2 mln bales, against 36.5 mln bales projected in the last season. Castor seed futures (Aug) is expected to consolidate in the range of 5435-5635 levels. Despite weak export demand, any sharp correction may remain limited due to a fall in the acreage of the oilseed amid rising demand from domestic stockists. Mentha oil (Aug) may remain stable in the range of 12420-1330 levels. Prices of mentha oil are steady in the key markets of Uttar Pradesh due to a fall in arrivals amid rising demand for the spice oil from overseas buyers. At Chandausi, a key market, the spice oil was sold in the range of 1,435-1,445 rupees per kg.


Base metal counter can trade on sideways path as lead negotiators for China and the United States will meet in Shanghai on Tuesday this week for two days in the next round of trade talks aimed to end their year-long trade war, China’s commerce ministry stated. China will further ease its economic policy to deal with a prolonged and costly trade war with the United States, but it would save more aggressive measures as last resorts should the dispute get uglier. Copper may move take support near 440 levels while facing resistance near 460 levels. The global world refined copper market showed a 96,000 tonnes deficit in April, compared with a 42,000 tonnes deficit in March, the International Copper Study Group stated. Meanwhile, Lead may continue its recovery as it can test 165 while taking support near 152 levels. The lead deficit, meanwhile, rose to 42,000 tonnes from 34,000 tonnes. Lead has been supportive as investors were worried about a supply shortage amid some maintenance activities in China along with falling LME inventories and that is reflecting on the cash -3m spread which are at a $10.50 premium indicating nearby supply shortage. Zinc may test 197 levels while taking support near 188 levels. Nickel prices can move sideways in range of 970-1020. Aluminium can trade also trade sideways as it can take support near 140 levels while taking resistance near 148 levels. Global aluminium production fell by 0.5% in the first half of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).





CHANA NCDEX (AUG) contract closed at Rs. 4292.00 on 25th Jul’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 4828.00 on 20th May’19 and a low of Rs. 4171.00 on 3rd Jul’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4370.30. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.054.

One can buy near Rs. 4240 for a target of Rs. 4400 with the stop loss of Rs. 4170.

NICKEL MCX (AUG) contract closed at Rs. 979.90 on 25th Jul’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 1049.40 on 18th Jul’19 and a low of Rs. 869.00 on 18th Jun’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 989.40. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.161.

One can buy near Rs. 970 for a target of Rs. 1050 with the stop loss of Rs. 930.

DHANIYA NCDEX (AUG) contract was closed at Rs. 6295.00 on 25th Jul’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 7820.00 on 21st May’19 and a low of Rs. 6228.00 on 25th Jul’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 7100.00. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 23.262.

One can buy above Rs. 6350 for a target of Rs. 6600 with the stop loss of Rs 6225




• The CME Group will launch Black Sea Sunflower Oil Financially Settled (Platts) futures on Aug 26, 2019.

• ECB signaled its intention to explore monetary easing but left interest rates unchanged last week.

• Brazil's Vale SA second-quarter iron ore production plunged almost 34% from a year ago.

• Chilean miner Antofagasta Plc reported a nearly 22% jump in copper output in the second quarter, helped by an expansion at its flagship Los Pelambres mine.

• IMF cut its forecast for global growth this year and next, warning that further U.S.-China tariffs or a disorderly exit for Britain from the European union could further slow growth.

• The water level in India's 91 key reservoirs was about 37% lower on year at 40.836 bcm, according to data released by the Central Water Commission. The water level is now 25% of the total live storage capacity of 161.993 bcm.

• The country has received 325.5 mm rainfall so far this monsoon season, against the normal of 394.3 mm, 17% below normal.

• SEBI has renewed the recognition for Multi Commodity Exchange Clearing Corp Ltd to act as a clearing corporation by three years.

• MCX will not to launch any further contracts in crude oil mini (10 barrels) future. The existing December contract expiring on Dec 18 would be the last contract available for trading,


CRB witnessed further decline as selling pressure was everywhere in the commodities counter. Gold prices edged lower in MCX, reflecting the global trend. Investors locked in profits ahead of major central bank meetings this month. A higher US dollar, which hovered near multi-week highs against a basket of currencies, also weighed on gold prices. The US Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates, its first cut in a decade. A series of purchasing manager index (PMI) readings in US came in weaker than expected; further boosting hopes of lower interest rates. Silver maintained its upside journey for the third week on strong technical across the board. ECB left interest rates unchanged Thursday, but policymakers said they envision a “highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for a prolonged period of time. Crude remained surrounded with negative as well as positive triggers and closed the week on little higher side; while natural gas surrendered its previous gains and closed in weaker territory. Oil prices rose, extending gains after an industry group reported a much bigger than expected drop in US inventories, while the US Navy said it may have downed a second Iranian drone last week. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East offset a weaker global growth outlook from the International Monetary Fund. U.S. crude inventories dropped by 10.8 million barrels for the week ended July 19, according to data from Energy Information Administration released Wednesday. Natural gas prices posted a steep decline last week in a move that may have confused traders. Extremely hot temperatures nearly covered the entire United States, but buyers remained scarce and support eroded. Even the previous weekend’s passing of Hurricane Barry couldn’t give prices a boost due to lower demand. Almost all the base metals turned weak, except lead on weak sentiments.

In agri, castor was weak on lower export. India's castor oil exports plunged 11% on year to 50,577 tonnes in June. Fall in exports are primarily due to eroding demand from traditional buyers, mainly China. Cotton oil seed cake saw magical highs in past few trading sessions. In spices, dhaniya prices crashed on speculative selling. Jeera saw some profitbooking after few week of upside trade. Soybean futures took support on reports of lower sowing data this season. Farmers in the country have sown soybean on 7.98 mln ha as of Thursday, down 11% on year, according to farm ministry data.







SPOT PRICES (% change)



Basmati Paddy 1121..... Premium rice on premium price

Basmati is one of the unique specialty rice varieties and famous for its quality like attractive aroma, soft texture of cooked rice, high volume expansion during cooking, easy digestibility and longer shelf-life. Recently the NCDEX & ICEX both has launched futures trading in Basmati Paddy to provide effective risk management tool for market participants and a fair price discovery platform forthe highly volatile basmati paddy.

Domestic scenario of Rice

India is the second largest producer of rice in the world, producing nearly 23 percent of the Global rice production with approximate production of 116 million tonne. But India is the largest producer of Basmati rice in the world, producing nearly 70 percent of the global Basmati production. India produces about 5.5 million tonne Basmati about 5% out of its total paddy production.

Major Basmati rice variety produced in India is PUSA 1121. Haryana is the leading Basmati Rice producing state in India while Punjab is largest producer of Basmati Pusa-1121. Haryana & Punjab both contribute about 83% of basmati rice production and about 89% of Pusa-1121 production of India. Other Basmati rice producing states includes Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. During the 2018-19 kharif season, basmati was sown across 1.52 mln ha, lower from 1.55 mln ha in the year ago period.

Global rice production

Globally China is the leading rice producer with more than 30% share of global production of more than 500 million ton. India, Indonesia and Bangladesh are the top rice producing countries. Basmati contributes 8-9 million tonne of total global rice production. After major contribution of India, Pakistan contributes about 30% share of global basmati production.

Global trade of Basmati Rice

India is the leading exporter of the Basmati Rice to the global market both in terms of value as well as volume. Export of Basmati rice is increasing at a CAGR of 6%. Nearly 80 percent of the total Basmati production is exported. Basmati rice fetches a premium price in the international market. According to APEDA data, India exported basmati rice worth Rs.32,806 crore in 2018-19, which is 22% higher than the Rs26,870 crore achieved during 2017-18. Volume-wise also, India shipped 4.88 million tonnes of basmati, which is a record in itself. India has earned over Rs 18,000 in foreign

exchange every year from export of Pusa b a s m a ti 1 1 2 1 ri c e v a riet y. Almos t 1 3 2 countries have been importing Basmati from India every year. Out of which, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iraq are the major importers. Apart from India, Pakistan also exports Basmati to many countries.




Currency Table

News Flows of last week

23rd JUL Dissent takes the spotlight in RBI vs. Finance ministry fight.
24th JUL JBoris Johnson replaced Theresa May as the UK’s new prime minister.
24th JUL ECB left rates unchanged, opened doors to rate cuts, more bonds buying.
25th JUL After Garg’s exit, sovereign overseas bond dream fades

Market Stance

Indian Rupee continued to drift lower this week amid steep outflows in domestic equities and debt in July. Admittedly the undertone of positivity faded in domestic unit after RBI Governor’s comment about policy action. In an interview to Bloomberg, Governor said RBI's recent decision to shift the stance of monetary policy to 'accommodative' "itself means a rate cut of 25 basis points at least," and that future policy action would depend on incoming data, which led the Rupee traders to roll-back expectations of aggressive monetary policy easing. On the global front, Mario Draghi in his latest monetary policy kept re-financing rate unchanged and further talked about stimulus addition to the economy which is presently worsening abruptly. The euphoria remains muted both in exchange rate and in European equities as well. Since the launch of QE1 in 2015, European stocks hardly performed which can be translated as debt created cannot be proportional to growth. Pound remains fragile after Boris Johnson entered Downing Street as PM of UK. Standing on the steps of Downing Street he said “no ifs or buts” Britain would leave the EU in 99 days’ time. Going forward next week, FOMC rate decision will guide bonds and currencies, although a 25 bps cut is highly priced-in.

USDINR is likely to take support near 68.80 and move higher towards 69.40 in the next week.

Economic gauge for the next week

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (AUG) contract closed at 69.2675 on 25th Jul’19. The contract made its high of 69.7650 on 23rd Jul’19 and a low of 69.02 on 23rd Jul’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 69.19

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.53. One can buy at 69.15 for the target of 69.75 with the stop loss of 68.85.

EUR/INR (AUG) contract closed at 77.3475 on 25th Jul’19. The contract made its high of 78 on 22nd Jul’19 and a low of 77.12 on 25th Jul’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14- day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 77.84

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 28.34. One can sell at 77.80 for a target of 77.20 with the stop loss of 78.10.

GBP/INR (AUG) ) contract closed at 86.66 on 25th Jul’19. The contract made its high of 86.84 on 22nd Jul’19 and a low of 86.0750 on 23rd Jul’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 86.72

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.33. One can sell at 87 for a target of 86.40 with the stop loss of 87.30.

JPY/INR (AUG) contract closed at 64.2150 on 25th Jul’19. The contract made its high of 64.40 on 22nd Jul’19 and a low of 64.07 on 25th Jul’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 63.19

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.20. One can sell at 64.10 for a target of 63.50 with the stop loss of 64.40.




Issue Highlights

Industry E-Commerce
Offer for sale (Shares) 4,953,020
Fresh Issue (Shares) 1,208,054
Total Offer 6,161,074
Issue Size (Rs. Cr.) 455-460
Price Band (Rs.) 740-745
Offer Date 29-Jul-19
Close Date 31-Jul-19
Face Value 10
Lot Size 20
Issue Highlights         In shares

Total Issue for Sale 6,161,074
QIB 4620805
NIB 924161
Retail 616107
Shareholding Pattern (%)

Particulars Pre-issue Post-issue
Promoters & promoters group 92.17% 68.38%
QIB 0.00% 18.12%
NIB 7.83% 11.08%
Retail 0.00% 2.42%
Total 100.00% 100.00%

*Calculated on the upper price band

Book Running Lead Manager

• ICICI Securities Limited

• Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited

Name of the registrar

Karvy Fintech Private Limited


Considering the P/E valuation on the upper end of the price band of Rs. 745, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 37.06x on its FY19 EPS of Rs. 20.10. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 38.91 x on its EPS of Rs. 19.15. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs. 745 the stock is priced at P/B ratio of 24.99x on the pre issue book value of Rs.29.81 and on the post issue book value of Rs. 63.70 the P/B comes out to 11.70x.

On the lower end of the price band of Rs.740 the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 36.81x on its FY19 EPS of Rs. 20.10.Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 38.65x on its EPS of Rs. 19.15. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs. 740, the stock is priced at P/B ratio of 24.82x on the pre issue book value of Rs. 29.81 and on the post issue book value of Rs. 63.70 , the P/B comes out to 11.62x.

About the company:

Incorporated in 2005, Affle (India) Limited is a mobile marketing firm offering a Consumer and Enterprise Platforms. Its Consumer Platform primarily provides the following services: (1) new consumer conversions (acquisitions, engagements and transactions) through relevant mobile advertising; (2) retargeting existing consumers to complete transactions for e-commerce companies through relevant mobile advertising; and (3) an online to offline (“O2O”) platform that converts online consumer engagement into in-store walk-ins. As at March 31, 2019, its Affle Consumer Platform had approximately 2.02 billion consumer profiles, of which approximately 571 million were in India, 582 million were in Other Emerging Markets and 867 million were in Developed Markets .


Its Consumer Platform has a leading position in India; a high growth market with substantial barriers to entry: The company has increased its breadth of its service offerings, especially to ecommerce and mobile app driven companies, following the acquisition of its Vizury Commerce Business and its RevX Platform. Industry the company serves has a high growth market with substantial barriers to entry.

Profitable, low-cost business model built on an asset light, automated and scalable platform: Its Affle Consumer Platform is supported by a flexible and scalable infrastructure, built in-house using cloud computing infrastructure. The ability of the company to generate actions has improved with increased user intelligence and targeting. As at May 31, 2019, it had 236 employees, of which 209 were in India.

Strong consumer profiles: As at March 31, 2019, the Affle Consumer Platform had approximately 2.02 billion consumer profiles, of which approximately (a) 571 million consumer profiles were in India, (b) 582 million consumer profiles were in Other Emerging Markets; and (c) 867 million consumer profiles were in Developed Markets. For Fiscal 2019, its Affle Consumer Platform accumulated over 300 billion data points.

Growth driven, global customer base: The Company is currently working with all of the top six global advertising agency groups (WPP (GroupM); Publicis; Omnicom (OMG); Dentsu Aegis Network (DAN); Interpublic Group (IPG) Mediabrands and Havas. ) and with other mobile focussed advertising agencies, such as M&C Saatchi Mobile, and with domestic advertising agencies, such as Interactive Avenues and Madison.

Business is engaged with e-commerce companies: Vizury Commerce Business and RevX Platform have expanded its engagement with e-commerce companies to include retargeting services and its Vizury Commerce Business expands its reach in the Middle East and Africa.


To Enhance its Affle Consumer Platform’s revenue: The company intends to continue to grow its Affle Consumer Platform’s revenue by gaining new customers in the fast-growing e-commerce market, through its existing sales team in India and through referrals from existing customers. The company also intends to increase the number of consumer profiles in Tier 2 cities, Tier 3 cities and rural markets, which are areas that its customers have not placed much emphasis on to date.

Expand its international business: The Company intends to increase the Monetization Factor for its Affle Consumer Platform’s consumer profiles outside India by increasing its business development efforts to gain more customers outside India and through referrals from its existing customers.

Continue to develop its award-winning fraudulent data detection and prevention platform: The Company intends to continue to build more fraud checks to detect and prevent mobile advertisement fraud and hence ensuring actual returns to its customers. It has also applied for 10 patents in India covering various algorithms in the area of digital fraud detection, all of which are pending.

Risk Factor

• Tough competition

• Business is concentrated around key customers.

• Significant amount of its business is conducted through advertising agencies.


AIL is having a unique business model and the company earns 70% from its global business and the rest 30% from home. The company runs the asset-light business model with debt-free status. The company has stated that it has applied for 10 patents in India covering various algorithms in the area of digital fraud detection, all of which are pending. It has no listed peers to compare with.




* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.

* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.

* Email us at fd@smcindiaonline.com




ITI Mutual Fund launches the ITI Long Term Equity Fund

ITI Mutual Fund has launched its third scheme called the ITI Long Term Equity Fund. The new fund offer will be open for subscription from July 15 to October 14. The benchmark for the scheme will be Nifty 500 Total Return Index. The scheme will be managed by George Heber Joseph and Pradeep Gokhale. According to a press release by the fund house, the scheme will have a diversified portfolio and will be market cap and sector agnostic in its investment approach. The scheme aims to generate long-term capital appreciation through a diversified portfolio of equity and equity-related securities. The fund will generally be minimum 90 per cent invested. The number of stocks envisaged in the fund is between 40 and 70. The minimum initial investment in the scheme will be Rs 500 and multiples of Rs 500 thereafter. The scheme will invest minimum 80 per cent in equities & equities related securities and maximum 20 per cent will be invested in short-term debt and money market instruments.

Union AMC launches the Union Focused Fund

Union Asset Management Company has launched a new fund called the Union Focused Fund. The new fund offer will be open for subscription from 15th July to 29th July. The scheme will be managed by Vinay Paharia, Chief Investment Officer of Union AMC. Union Focused Fund is an open ended equity fund scheme which would invest in a focused portfolio of maximum 30 stocks and has the flexibility to invest across large cap, mid cap and small cap categories. The scheme aims to build a concentrated portfolio of companies that are selected on the basis of the investment philosophy of the AMC.

Fund Manager change in Schemes of DSP Mutual Fund

DSP Mutual Fund has decided to change the Fund Manager of DSP Equal Nifty 50 Fund, DSP Nifty 50 Index Fund, DSP Nifty Next 50 Index Fund and DSP Liquid ETF from Gauri Sekaria to Anil Ghelani with effect from July 24, 2019.

Name Change in a Scheme of Union Mutual Fund

Union Mutual Fund has proposed to change the name of the Union Tax Saver to Union Long Term Equity Fund with effect from July 29, 2019.


  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Union Focused Fund - Regular Plan (G)
  • Open-Ended
  • Growth
  • 15-Jul-2019
  • 29-Jul-2019
  • The scheme seek to seek to generate capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of select equity and equity linked securities across market caps.
  • Rs.5000/-
  • Vinay Paharia
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • BNP Paribas Global Innovative Technology Fund - Regular Plan (G)
  • Open-Ended
  • Growth
  • 16-Aug-2019
  • 30-Aug-2019
  • The scheme seek capital appreciation by investing predominantly in units of Parvest Disruptive Technology Fund.
  • Rs.5000/-
  • Karthikraj Lakshmanan / Abhijeet Dey
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • ITI Long Term Equity Fund - Regular Plan (G)
  • Open-Ended
  • Growth
  • 15-Jul-2019
  • 14-Oct-2019
  • The Scheme seeks to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity related securities.
  • Rs.5000/-
  • Pradeep Gokhale / George Heber Joseph


Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)
TAX Fund
Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully


Mr. S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) felicitating the students of the Army Public School (Sector 37, Noida) during an awareness program on Water Conservation “Keep the Yamuna River Clean” held on 20th July, 2019 at Delhi NCR. He is joined by Shri Gopal Krishna Agarwal (BJP National Spokesperson on Economic Affairs).

Mr. D K Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Investments & Senior VP – PHD Chamber of Commerce) during MOU Signing between MeitY Startup Hub (MSH) and PHD Chamber of Commerce at New Delhi.

SMC organised Associate Meet in association with Bajaj Finserv held on Friday, 19th July, 2019 at Hotel Costa Riviera, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh.

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