Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, surprised U-turn by BOJ and rising covid cases kept the global stock markets under pressure. On the flip side, US consumer confidence, jobless claims, and Q3 GDP numbers surprised the markets. The confidence gauge jumped to 108.3 from 101.4, beating economists’ forecast for a reading of 101.0. Actually the data is pointing towards a strong consumer sentiment, a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives the bulk of economic growth, eased fears about a recession. Another data showed that the US current account deficit narrowed sharply in the third quarter as exports jumped to a record high. In its final meeting of the year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) widened its trading band for 10-year government bond yields from 25 basis points (bps) either side of zero to 50 bps. The rock-bottom interest rates available in Japan have made the yen the funding currency of choice for all those engaged in ‘carry trades’, and the unwinding of such trades is likely to put upward pressure on bond yields and downward pressure on stock markets across the globe.

Back at home, domestic markets continued to remain volatile amid fears of a recession in the US and a surge in COVID-19 cases in China. Besides, the news of a few cases of Omicron variant found in India and the advisories issued by the government are also adding to investors’ fears. In recent RBI's latest monetary policy minutes, RBI revealed strong concerns about inflation. India's inflation eased below the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6% for the first time this year and it is expected that RBI will not be in race of aggressive rate hike. In another development, RBI suggested that a premature pause in rate tightening would be a "costly policy error at this juncture". Going forward, both global as well as domestic factors will continue to dictate the trend of the markets.

On the commodity market front, Commodities continued to give gains ahead of year ending. CRB closed near 300 levels with marginal gains. Upside in Japanese Yen upset the recovery in dollar index and it fell down again below the level of 104. It further strengthened the commodities prices. Now the world is in celebration mode and thin trading will be witnessed in rest of the remaining trading sessions of 2022. Bullion may see bounce from the low and can trade in a range of 53000-55500 and 670000-71000 levels respectively. Energy counter can trade in a range with upside bias now as cold burst may increase the demand and holiday heavy season will increase the demand of crude oil. Decline in US crude oil depicted the same trend. Continuation of ban on some agri futures by SEBI for one more year disheartened the market participant’s mood. Base metals will remain in range on mix triggers. On economic data and events front, only few data are scheduled.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Pharmaceuticals
  • Alembic Pharmaceuticals has received PAS (Prior Approval Supplement) approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) for its Supplemental Abbreviated New Drug Application (sANDA) Pregabalin Capsules, 25 mg, 50 mg, 75 mg, 100 mg, 150 mg, 200 mg, 225 mg and 300 mg.
Telecom
  • Tata Communications has entered into a definitive agreement through its wholly owned international subsidiary Tata Communications (Netherlands) B.V. to acquire The Switch Enterprises LLC.
Information Technology
  • LTI Mindtree has been selected as a transformation partner by Yorkshire Water, a leading UK utilities company, to modernise operations across its clean water, waste water, and asset management businesses. Yorkshire Water is the ninth largest water utility in the world and provides water and wastewater services to 5.2 million customers across Yorkshire.
Hotel
  • Lemon Tree Hotels announced the opening of its latest hotel - Lemon Tree Hotel, Mukteshwar, in Uttarakhand. The hotel features 41 well-appointed rooms and suites, complemented by a multi- cuisine restaurant and a bar. It also has a conference room, a swimming pool, a spa and a fitness centre for recreation.
Auto Ancillary
  • Uno Minda has entered into Technical License agreement with Asentec Co (Asentec) of Korea, a leading global supplier of Automotive sensors and actuators, to design, develop, manufacture and market wheel speed sensors in India.
Capital Goods
  • ISGEC Heavy Engineering has received two prestigious orders for Dry Sorbent Injection (DSI) System Packages from Maharashtra Power Generation Corporation (MAHAGENCO) and The West Bengal Power Development Corporation (WBPDCL) for their 2 x 210 MW (Unit #3&4) Khaperkheda Thermal Power Station and 4 x 210 MW (Unit #, 3,4,5&6) Kolaghat Thermal Power Station respectively.
Realty/ Construction
  • NBCC India has received contract for the construction of a new multi-storied quarter complex from Odisha Power Transmission Corporation. The company will construct 100 numbers of quarters by demolishing the existing 224 numbers quarters at Bhoinager, Bhubaneswar. The order value is Rs 69.3 crore.
Casting & Forgings
  • Bharat Forge has commenced supply of forgings utilizing green steel, manufactured and supplied by Saarloha Advanced Materials, a part of the Kalyani Group. This is in line with company's commitment to reduce the carbon footprint.
Metal
  • Hindustan Zinc is planning to invest over $1 billion ( Rs 8,270 crore) to convert its diesel-fired mining vehicles into battery-operated ones and also to fully turn a green energy user, over the next five years.
Trading
  • PTC India has entered into an agreement with Bhutan's electricity utility firm Druk Green Power Corporation Limited to supply 600 MW power to the neighbouring country during the winter season.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • The Bank of Japan made a surprise decision to let a benchmark interest rate rise to 0.5% from 0.25%, pushing the yen higher and ending a long period in which it was the only major developed-nation central bank not to increase rates.
  • US consumer confidence index spiked to 108.3 in December from an upwardly revised 101.4 in November. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 101.0 from the 100.2 originally reported for the previous month.
  • US existing home sales dove by 7.7 percent to an annual rate of 4.09 million in November after plunging by 5.9 percent to a rate of 4.43 million in October. Economists had expected existing home sales to tumble by 5.2 percent to a rate of 4.20 million.
  • US housing starts fell by 0.5 percent to an annual rate of 1.427 million in November after tumbling by 2.1 percent to a revised rate of 1.434 million in October. Economists had expected 3housing starts to decline by 0.7 percent to a rate of 1.415 million from the 1.425 million originally reported for the previous month.
  • Japan's leading index, which measures future economic activity, rose to 98.6 in October from 98.2 in the previous month. In the initial estimate, the reading was 99.0.
  • The People's Bank of China kept its one-year loan prime rate, or LPR, unchanged at 3.65 percent. Similarly, the five-year LPR, the benchmark for mortgage rates, was retained at 4.30 percent.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

NHPC LIMITED
CMP: 38.95
Target Price: 45
Upside: 16%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 46.90/27.05
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 39125.41
  • EPS (Rs.) 3.84
  • P/E Ratio (times) 10.14
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.06
  • Dividend Yield (%) 4.65
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • NHPC’s total installed capacity is 7,071 megawatts (MW) (including Wind and Solar) through its 24 power stations, which also includes 1,520 MW through subsidiary.
  • NHPC has annual CAPEX plans of Rs. 8,000 Crore approximately in the coming years considering its projects' pipeline.
  • The management of the company expects to achieve Rs 15,000 crore in revenue and Rs 5,000 crore in profit after tax (PAT) in the next 5 years. In 2023-24, the company will commission both Subansiri and Parbhati-II hydro projects, which is about 2,800 MW of capacity, and the full financial benefit will be available for the company in FY24-25.
  • Generation for the Q2 FY23 quarter and the half year is the highest ever at 10,138 million units (MU) and 18,303 MU, respectively. The overall Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of the power stations of the company for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2022 is also the highest ever at 99.87 per cent and 99.23 per cent, respectively on a standalone basis.
  • NHPC is expanding its renewable energy portfolio and has taken up several projects under different modes, which are under the tendering / development stage. Recently, NHPC signed a Letter of Intent with Rajasthan Renewable Energy Corporation Ltd (RRECL) for development of 10,000 MW renewable energy projects / parks in Rajasthan.
  • NHPC’s consolidated net profit rose by 15 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs.1,536 crore for the July- September quarter helped by strong operating performance. The hydro power generator’s net profit, on a sequential basis, rose 48 per cent from Rs.1,039 crore in Q1 FY23. It’s consolidated total income rose 11 per cent y-o-y to Rs.3,529 crore in July-September of FY23. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the income rose 18 per cent.

Risk

  • Execution risk for under-construction projects
  • Regulatory risk due to cost-plus regime

Valuation

The company is doing well and has strong balance sheet. According to the management of the company, it has taken initiatives to streamline the processes by adopting new technologies in the areas of engineering for its sustainable growth. It is also looking forward for remote operation of some of its power stations. The company continues to remain comfortable by low overall gearing and stable debt coverage metrics. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.45 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/BV of 1.2x and FY24 (E) BVPS of Rs.37.77.

P/B Chart

FORTIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED
CMP: 280.05
Target Price: 336
Upside: 20%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 324.80/219.80
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 21142.60
  • EPS (Rs.) 0.48
  • P/E Ratio (times) 0.00
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.36
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Fortis Healthcare is a leading integrated healthcare delivery service provider in India. The healthcare verticals of the company primarily comprise hospitals, diagnostics and day care specialty facilities. Currently, the company operates 26 healthcare facilities (including JVs and O&M facilities). The company's network comprises approximately 4,300 operational beds and approx. 400 diagnostics centres.
  • Revenues from key specialties such as Oncology, Gastroenterology, Renal Sciences and Orthopaedics have seen strong growth. The international patient revenues have also seen healthy traction in the quarter. In addition, the diagnostics segment continues to witness competitive pressures and we are making all efforts to protect and further grow our market share in the business.
  • During the quarter, it has witnessed a robust hospital business performance led by a better occupancy mix and a higher ARPOB, which increased 21% versus Q1 FY22. In Hospitals business, occupancy increased to 65% in Q1 FY23 from 59% in Q4 FY22. Average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) was Rs 1.96 crore (up 4.3% QoQ) and Average length of stay (ALOS) was 3.58 day (up 1.4% QoQ) in the quarter ended June 2022.
  • On the development front, it has added beds in select facilities such as Fortis Mulund and FMRI Gurugram and well on track with its brownfield expansion plans. It has also expanded its oncology offerings with a new cancer care facility in New Delhi.
  • The management has guided on occupancy of around 75% and this is likely to increase volumes. It has also guided that there would be an improvement in international business; the said business is targeted to reach 10-12% in medium term from current level of 8.5%.
  • Net debt to EBITDA was at 0.54x vs 0.60x (basis annualized EBITDA of Q1FY23 and Q4FY22, respectively). Net debt was at Rs 585 crore versus Rs 549 crore in Q4 FY22.

Risk

  • Regulatory Risk
  • Geographical footprint business and financial risk.

Valuation

According to the management of the company, Q1 FY23 has witnessed an encouraging start to the fiscal. The company continues to further strengthen the business in terms of adding beds, expanding medical programs, and onboarding clinical talent. Its next phase of growth would be led by brownfield expansion strategy which would see approx. 1500 beds coming onstream in the next few years: largely in key existing Fortis facilities such as the likes of FMRI, Mohali, Shalimar Bagh, BG Road and Noida. The company’s focus on digital initiatives in both the medical and non-medical related aspects should enable to further fortify its longer-term business prospects. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.336 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year average P/BV of 3.26x and FY24 (E) BVPS of Rs.103.13.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

JSW STEEL LIMITED (JSWSTEEL)

The stock closed at Rs 737.55 on 22nd December, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 520.05 on 26th May, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs. 790.00 on 19th April, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 661.68

Short term and medium term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on chart, which are bullish in nature. Apart from this, The stock is forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on daily chart, which is considered to be bullish. On the indicators front such RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 720-723 levels for the upside target of 810-830 levels with SL below 690 levels.

LUPIN LIMITED (LUPIN)

The stock closed at Rs 766.30 on 22nd December, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 583.00 on 25th May, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs. 971.45 on 13th January, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 728.19

As we can see on chart that the stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, the stock has formed an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly chart, and has given the breakout of pattern. It also has managed to close above the same, so, follow up buying is anticipated in the stock in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 760-764 levels for the upside target of 830-850 levels with SL below 720 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Intense selling pressure was witnessed in Indian markets in the week gone by as Nifty slipped below 18000 levels while Banking Index hammered down by nearly 3% over the week as investors remained cautious of rising Covid cased in China, the US, Japan, Korea and Brazil. From the derivative front, long unwinding has been witnessed at higher levels along with hefty open interest addition in 18000,18100 & 18200 strikes. Put writers remained on back foot as open interest had been seen shifting at lower bands. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 14.08% while that for put options closed at 15.58%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 15.19%. PCR OI for the week closed at 0.73. Technically Nifty has slipped back below its 50 days exponential moving average on daily charts and can be seen trading lower with formation of lower bottom pattern. For upcoming week, we keep our cautious stance intact for Indian markets as there are no signs of respite seen in data. On higher side, 18150-18250 zone would act as strong hurdle for the Nifty and we expect selling pressure to continue in upcoming week as well. Technically support zone for Nifty is seen in range of 17800-17750 level.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top Long Buildup

Top Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 22nd December, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices are likely to trade sideways to higher due to active buying. Spice millers are showing good interest towards buying due to increased demand from Horeca segment. Demand from health care industry is likely to increase with growing fear of resurgence of Covid -19 in India as it is used as immunity booster against Covid. Robust export demand and weaker production outlook is likely to keep market sentiments up for turmeric. Export demand has been good in year 2022 as India exported about 99 thousand tonnes of turmeric during Jan’22-Oct’22 compared to 89 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Arrivals has been down as only 6.3 thousand tonnes has been arrived so far in Dec’22 compared to 14 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Turmeric Apr prices are expected to trade in range of 8200-9000.

Jeera NCDEX Jan futures extended its gains for four consecutive weeks in row following supply tightness at physical market. Some profit booking is likely to be seen in Jeera as stockists have started releasing their stocks after recent gains in prices. Marginal buyers are away from bulk buying due to higher prices. Weaker production outlook is also supporting firmness in prices. About 2.61 lakh hectares were sown under jeera in Gujarat till 19th Dec’22 compared to 2.74 lakh hectares of previous year, down by 5% Y-o-Y. Jeera Jan prices are likely to trade in range of 29800-31000.

Dhaniya NCDEX Jan prices are likely to trade on weaker note due to lukewarm demand at physical market. Reports of rise in area under dhaniya and better yield prospects supported by normal crop progress will weigh on the market sentiments. Area under dhaniya jumped sharply in Gujarat in year 2022 reported at 2.18 lakh hectares as on 19th Dec compared to 1.18 lakh hectares of previous year, higher by 84% Y-o-Y. Supplies are adequate at major trading centers due to rising imports that is keeping buyers away from bulk buying. India has imported about 22.01 thousand tonnes of dhaniya during Jan’22- Oct’22 compared to 4.89 thousand tonnes of previous year. Dhaniya NCDEX Jan Prices are likely to trade in range of 7750-8400.

BULLIONS

Gold prices posted positive returns, but stuck in the thin range as cautious traders awaited economic data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve’s rate hike stance. Prices jumped to week high amid weakness in the dollar after the Bank of Japan’s surprise policy tweak. The yen jumped to a four-month high after the BOJ stunned markets with a surprise tweak to its bond yield control program. New claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected in the United States, while the economy rebounded faster in the third quarter, rising 3.2% against the previously estimated 2.9%. With the Fed raising rates and gold expecting inflows in early-2023 from equities on the back of safe-haven trades, gold prices are going to move up, but not as much being that the Fed is committed to the 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank will deliver more rate hikes next year, even as the economy slips towards a possible recession. Britain’s economy contracted more than first thought in the third quarter of this year, data showed on Thursday. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.2% to 913.88 tonnes. On the technical front, COMEX Gold is trading near $1790 close to its short term support, based on the chart structure it looks like prices may continue to witness buying where it may take support near $1760 and face resistance near $1840. Silver may trade in the range of $22.100-$24.500, with high volatility. Ahead in the week, prices on MCX may continue to witness buying and the possible trading range for gold would be 53000-55600. Silver may trade in the range of 64500-71000.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices posted positive returns and climbed to their highest level in the month, boosted by a sharper-than-expected drop in official U.S. crude oil stocks as a cold snap hits the US. Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude inventories fell by almost 6 million barrels for the week ending on Dec. 16, much more than expected. Helping the tone Thursday was news of the first major winter storm of the season hitting large parts of the U.S., with warnings of freezing weather now stretching from Washington state to Maine and down to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Additionally, economic data released showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week, while the economy rebounded faster than previously estimated in the third quarter. This points to a resilient U.S. economy in the face of the aggressive monetary tightening, suggesting that the downturn predicted for next year may be shallower than previously feared, good news for crude demand in the largest consumer in the world. The Chinese government has recently decided to ease such restrictions, but the country has suffered a big spike in cases as a result, and the impact on crude demand remains unclear. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to witness positive move and may trade in the range of 6200-6700 levels. Natural gas prices slipped to lowest in nine months after the latest EIA report showed a smaller-than-expected storage draw. Prices in the US have been subdued amid forecasts for warmer than previously expected weather in late December and early January. Ahead in the week prices may witness huge volatility and it remains sell on rise market where it may take support near 400 and could face resistance near 480 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with a mix bias as surging COVID-19 infections in top consumer China fuelled fears of an economic slowdown while tight supplies amid falling inventories and possible production cuts may support the counter. While a series of policy measures and hopes of better industrial activities due to a pivot from China’s stringent COVID policies may support the prices, a huge spike in infections in the country may equally weigh on the metals market. Output at Japanese factories likely declined for a third month in November, according to economists in a Reuters poll, as shrinking global demand took a toll on electronics and associated products. Copper may trade in the range of 685-720 levels. The world's refined copper market saw a 46,000 tonne surplus in October, compared with a deficit of 85,000 tonnes in September, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Zinc can trade in the range of 255-275 levels. London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse stocks of the galvanising metal total 36,525 tonnes, the lowest amount this century. Lead can move in the range of 183-192 levels. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-220 with bearish bias. LME aluminium inventories have been falling in recent weeks and stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, at 92,373 tonnes, are near multi-year lows. Indonesia will ban exports of bauxite, the main source of aluminium, starting June 2023, President Joko Widodo said. But global primary aluminium output in November rose 3.8% year on year to 5.611 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Steel long (Jan) is likely to trade in the range of 45500-47500 on NCDEX.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton MCX Dec prices are expected trade down due to subdued export demand. Growing fear of recession and resurgence of Covid cases in China is likely to keep industrial demand down in coming days and its impact is likely to be seen on prices. Export orders have declined due to the higher inventories stocked by buyers to cover the shortages of the covid period. Increased imports of cotton yarn in India also dampened the demand prospects as millers preferred imported cotton yarn due to higher domestic price. Losses will be limited due to lower supply as cotton arrivals are below normal in this season as farmers are not releasing their produce in anticipation of better price realization in coming future. Prices are likely to hold the resistance of 33500 and expected to move towards 27000.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX (Jan) futures are likely to trade higher due to active demand at physical market. Spot demand is good due to supply tightness as farmers are not releasing cotton in anticipation of better price outlook. Stockists are active in wake of lower production of cotton seed oil cake as pace of cotton arrivals has been slower. Prices are likely to hold the support of 2600 and will move towards 3000 in coming week.

Guar seed Jan futures are likely to trade sideways may keep bias on negative side. Farmers are releasing their stocks after strong rally in prices that will pull down the guar prices in near term. Growing fear of recession will keep export demand of gum down that will reflect as weakness in prices. However, demand for churi and korma has been good that will cap the excessive losses in prices. Guar seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5600-6400 in near term.

Mentha oil (Jan) is likely to trade in mixed to down as profit booking is likely to be extended further due to limited buying in market. Export demand for menthol is likely to be slowed down in the wake of slowdown in economic activities in China that will put pressure on prices. However, supplies have been tighter due to lower production in year 2022 that has affected the pace of arrivals as well. Prices are likely to honor the resistance of 1030 and expected to move town towards 975.

Castor seed (Jan) prices are likely to trade on weaker note in wake of sluggish export demand. Growing fear of recession and increased cases of corona pandemic in China is likely to keep export demand for castor oil down that result into fall in crushing activities. Millers are avoiding bulk buying in wake of commencement of new crop of castor after Jan. Supply tightness in physical market is likely to restrict the major downfall in prices. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 6900-7400.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: JAN
M*.High: 6793.00
M*.Low: 5901.00

It closed at Rs. 6506.00 on 21st Dec 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6404.79. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.369. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 6420 for a target of Rs. 6750 with the stop loss of 6300.

COPPER MCX
Contract: JAN
M*.High: 719.25
M*.Low: 689.70

It closed at Rs. 707.90 on 21st Dec 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 702.66. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.106. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 710 for a target of Rs. 690 with the stop loss of 720.

JEERA NCDEX
Contract: JAN
M*.High: 29200.00
M*.Low: 24920.00

It closed at Rs. 28675.00 on 21st Dec 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 27079.50. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 77.232. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 28500 for a target of Rs. 30000 with the stop loss of 27800.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The world's refined copper market saw a 46,000 tonne surplus in October, compared with a deficit of 85,000 tonnes in September, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin.
  • Indonesia will ban exports of bauxite, the main source of aluminum, starting June 2023, President Joko Widodo said.
  • Global primary aluminium output in November rose 3.8% year on year to 5.611 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed.
  • Bangladesh has offered over $40 a tonne more to Indian cooperatives to import 2.5 lakh tonnes of parboiled rice in a government-to-government deal.
  • US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank have raised rates this year by a cumulative 4.25 per cent, 3.25 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively.
  • India's market regulator extended the suspension of trading in derivative contracts of commodities including wheat, paddy and crude palm oil until Dec. 20, 2023.
  • The oilmeal exports from India have recorded a 50 per cent year-on-year growth between April to November reached up to 2.39 million tonnes this fiscal year, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.
  • Wheat acreage has increased 3% to 278.25 lakh hectare so far in the ongoing rabi season at 286.5 lakh hectare mainly on higher sowing area in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, government data showed.
  • The export of agri-food products has increased from USD 29.67 billion in 2015-16 to USD 46.11 billion in 2021- 22 showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.62 per cent, as per Minister of State for Food Processing Industries.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Commodities continued to give gains ahead of year ending. CRB closed near 300 with marginal gains. Upside in Japanese Yen upset the recovery in dollar index and it fell down again below the level of 104. It further strengthened the commodities prices. Bullion counter dazzled again as safe haven buying returned. MCX gold crossed 55000 levels whereas Silver breached 70000 on MCX; later on some profit booking occurred. Crude prices jumped after a long consolidation; natural gas slipped further. Oil prices rose for a fourth straight day on Thursday with U.S. crude, heating oil and jet fuel stocks seen tight just as a chilly blast hits the United States and travel is set to soar for the holiday season. Government data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by much more than analysts had expected, posting a drop of 5.89 million barrels for the week ending Dec. 16. The falling stockpiles come as demand for heating oil is set to soar with a powerful winter storm hitting the United States, expected to bring sub-zero wind chills as far south as Texas and record-breaking lows to Florida and the eastern states. In base metals, spread between lead and zinc reduced as zinc closed in red on profit booking from the higher side meanwhile lead gained. Copper prices augmented and closed near 720 however aluminum prices declined on fall in premium and ignored the rise in crude oil prices. Tight global stocks for metals including copper and aluminium and news of possible production cuts also helped to lift market sentiment. The world's refined copper market saw a 46,000 tonne surplus in October, compared with a deficit of 85,000 tonnes in September, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin.

In agri commodities, some of them saw sharp fall on profit booking from higher side viz; castor seed, cotton oilseed cake, guar, mentha and many more. Only spice counter continued its terrific upside. Spice millers are active due to increased demand from Horeca segment as well as from health care industry. Growing fear of resurgence of Covid -19 in India is likely to boost up the demand of turmeric in healthcare industry. Export demand has been good in year 2022 as India exported about 99 thousand tonnes of turmeric during Jan’22-Oct’22 compared to 89 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Jeera traded in unchartered territory due to supply tightness at major trading centers. Weaker production outlook is also supporting firmness in prices. Dhaniya prices traded down on lukewarm demand at physical market. Guar saw quick fall from upside due to muted demand at physical market. Castor seed prices slashed e in wake of sluggish export demand. Millers are avoiding bulk buying in wake of commencement of new crop of castor after Jan.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Baltic Dry Index (bdi) & Global Economy

The BDI tracks the prices of bulk carriers which are the life-blood of global trade, carrying everything from iron ore, coal to grain. It represents the cost paid by an end customer to have a shipping company transport raw materials across seas on the Baltic Exchange, the global marketplace for brokering shipping contracts. The Baltic Exchange is similar to the NYMEX in that it is a medium for buyers and sellers of contracts and forward agreements (futures) for delivery of dry bulk cargo. The exchange maintains prices on several routes for different cargoes and then publishes its own index, the BDI, as a summary of the entire dry bulk shipping market. The Baltic Dry Index takes into account 23 different shipping routes carrying coal, iron ore, grains and many other commodities.

Current scenario of Baltic Dry Index

The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels carrying dry bulk commodities, is trading above 1,723, its highest since Oct. 25 as a jump in capesize segment to its highest since mid-July. Capesize Atlantic activity set the positive tone with an injection of fresh cargoes out from Brazil, West Africa, and North Atlantic that faced a shortage of prompt tonnage and led to significant week-on-week rises, shipbroker Intermodal said in its weekly note.

The volatile nature of the world over the last two years has been reflected in shipping prices. The Baltic Dry Index in mid-May 2020 was below 500 as COVID-19 began its global spread. A year later it had passed the 3,000-mark before further spiking to hit a peak of 5,647 in October last year. It then slumped before climbing once more when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, passing over 3,300 points in May. Rates then came down to hit a bottom of 835 in late August before springing back to the current level. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine had a major impact on the dry bulk industry, triggering a reshuffling of many trades (mostly the coal trade) and making some areas almost untradable (particularly the Black Sea). Russia and Ukraine are major dry bulk exporters and the war has significantly disrupted shipments from both countries. The war also triggered a jump in European coal imports that increased by 35.5% or 15 million tonnes post-war and benefitted mostly the Capesize segment.

Compositions of Index

What the means of Index to Investors

  • This index is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity across the globe. Because dry bulk primarily consistsC of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production.
  • The BDI will show how much a company or country is willing to pay to import raw materials immediately.
  • A s the BDI increases, the cost of raw materials also goes up. This cost associated with procuring the materials must be passed along the value chain by producers and refiners.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee largely stayed in a range between 82.60 - 83.00 despite the dollar slightly reversing its losses this week. On top of that improvement in the forward and futures premium ahead of year-end supported rupee as well. Globally the dollar pared its losses in recent days after solid US economic data reinforce the need for the Federal Reserve to stay on its aggressive monetary policy tightening path and further raised the odds of higher-for-longer rates. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week pointing to a still-tight labor market, data released on Thursday showed. On the top of that, the US economy rebounded in the third quarter after contracting in the first half of the year and at a pace faster than previously estimated. On the majors, sterling fell sharply this week after British public borrowing unexpectedly jumped last month to hit its highest for any November on record, reflecting the mounting cost of energy subsidies, debt interest, and the reversal of an increase in payroll taxes, official figures showed on Wednesday. Borrowing rose to 22.0 billion pounds ($26.7 billion) from 8.1 billion pounds a year earlier - before Britain was hit by surging natural gas prices that have forced the government to subsidize heating and electricity costs for millions of households and businesses. We think both EURINR and GBPINR will continue to stay weaker in the coming days.

USDINR (NOV)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 82.32 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 83.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.46 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.25.

One can buy on dip 82.50 for the target of 83.50 with the stop loss of 82.00.

GBPINR (NOV)is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 98.50 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 100.90 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 99.86. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.90.

One can sell on bounce near 100.00 for the target of 99.00 with the stop loss of 100.50.

EURINR (NOV) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 87.20 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 88.40 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 86.78. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 70.57.

One can sell on rise near 88.00 for the target of 87.00 with the stop loss of 88.50.

JPYINR (NOV) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 61.65 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 63.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 60.70. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 68.97.

One can buy on dip near 62.00 for the target of 63.00 with the stop loss of 61.50.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

Sah Polymers to float IPO on December 30 with only fresh issues

Packaging solutions provider Sah Polymers is set to float its initial public offering on December 30. The price band and lot size details will be released in the next few days. The closing date for the offer will be on January 4. The anchor book, a part of qualified institutional buyers portion, will open for investors on December 29, a day prior to the opening of the offer. The initial public offering of 1.02 crore equity shares by the company comprises only a fresh issue. Sah Polymers has reserved 75 percent of the public issue size for qualified institutional buyers, 15 percent for high networth individuals (non-institutional investors), and the remaining 10 percent for retail investors. The IPO funds will be utilised for setting up an additional manufacturing facility for new variant of flexible intermediate bulk containers (FIBC) with capacity of 3,960 million tonnes per annum. It has one manufacturing facility with an installed production capacity of 3,960 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) at Udaipur in Rajasthan. The company will repay its certain borrowings and fund its working capital requirements from the issue proceeds. Sah Polymers is promoted by Sat Industries which currently holds 91.79 percent stake in the company and rest of stake is being held by Sat Invest. The company is primarily engaged in manufacturing and selling of polypropylene (PP) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) FIBC bags, woven sacks, and HDPE and PP woven fabrics, with having a presence in 5 states and 1 union territory for domestic market. It also exports products to 14 countries such as Algeria, Togo, Ghana, Poland, Portugal, France, Italy, Dominican Republic, USA, Australia,UAE, Palestine, the UK and Ireland, which contributed 55 percent to revenue from operations in FY22.

Sula Vineyards shares settle 7% lower at Rs 331 on debut amid weak sentiment

Shares of Sula Vineyards on December 22 were listed at Rs 361, a bit higher than the issue price of Rs 357 and hit an intraday high of Rs 363.3. However, it immediately dipped below the issue price. The weak market conditions and tepid subscription response to the IPO seem to have dented sentiment at Sula's desk. The stock settled the first-day trade at Rs 331, down 7.23 percent against the issue price on the NSE, while the closing price on BSE was Rs 331.15. The country's largest wine producer launched its initial public offering last week and raised Rs 960 crore. It was entirely an offer-for-sale issue, which was another reason for muted response to its IPO. The price band for the offer was Rs 340 - Rs 357 per share.

Liquor maker Allied Blenders gets SEBI’s go-ahead for Rs 2000-crore IPO

Allied Blenders and Distillers Limited has received approval from the SEBI to go-ahead with its initial public offering of shares nearly six months after filing the draft papers. The IPO comprises fresh issue of equity shares worth Rs 1,000 crore, and an offer for sale by promoters Bina Kishore Chhabria, Resham Chhabria Jeetendra Hemdev, Neesha Kishore Chhabria, aggregating up to Rs 1,000 crore. The promoter and promoter group entities hold 100% stake in the Mumbai-based liquor company. Allied Blenders makes foreign liquors and its flagship brands include ‘Officer’s Choice Whiskey’, ‘Sterling Reserve’, and ‘Officer’s Choice Blue’. The company’s brands are sold across 30 states and Union Territories. Of the total proceeds from the fresh issue, it plans to utilise Rs 700 crore to repay debt and the rest for general corporate purposes. The company plans to introduce products in the premium, semi-premium, and deluxe segments that will help improve its profitability.

Divgi Torqtransfer Systems’ IPO gets green light from SEBI

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has approved the initial public offering (IPO) of Pune-headquartered automotive component manufacturer Divgi Torqtransfer Systems. The company had filed draft papers with SEBI in this regard in October. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of shares worth up to Rs 200 crore, and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 31,46,802 equity shares by promoters and other shareholders. Proceeds from the fresh issue will be primarily utilised to fund the company’s capital expenditure plans. Divgi is an automotive component manufacturer, having 3 manufacturing and assembling facilities located across India. The company is one of the leading players supplying transfer case systems to automotive original equipment makers in India, and the largest supplier of transfer case systems to passenger vehicle manufacturers in India. A transfer case is part of the drivetrain of four-wheel-drive and other multiple powered axle vehicles. It essentially transfers power from the transmission to the front and rear axles by means of drive shafts. Inga Ventures Private Ltd and Equirus Capital Private Ltd are the book running lead managers to the issue.

IRM Energy files draft papers with Sebi to raise up to Rs 700 cr via IPO

City gas distribution company IRM Energy Ltd has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO is a fresh issue of up to 1.01 crore equity shares by existing shareholders, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). The Ahmedabadbased company may consider a pre-IPO placement for up to 20 lakh equity shares. If such placement is completed, the issue size will be reduced. At present, the promoters own 67.94 per cent stake in the company, with the majority being held by Cadila Pharmaceuticals (49.50 per cent), and the remaining shares being held by IRM Trust Ltd through its managing trustee Rajiv Indravadan Modi. Proceeds from the issue will be used to fund capital expenditure requirements for development of the city gas distribution network at Namakkal and Tiruchirapalli in Tamil Nadu, for payment of debt and other general corporate purposes. IRM Energy provides piped natural gas (PNG) and compressed natural gas (CNG). It has operations in states including Gujarat, Punjab and Tamil Nadu and serves 168 industrial customers, 202 commercial customers, 43,183 domestic customers, as of September 2022. It had an established network of 56 CNG filling stations, comprising 2 owned and operated by the company, 30 owned and operated by dealers and 24 owned and operated by oil marketing companies as of September 2022. The company's revenue from operations more than doubled to Rs 504.12 crore in the six months ended September 30, 2022 from Rs 205.45 crore in the year-ago period.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund to open international funds for subscription from January, 2023

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund has announced that it will withdraw the temporary suspension of subscriptions in its five international funds from January 1, 2023. The AMC had issued an addendum dated November 22, 2022 allowing investments up to Rs 2,00,000 per PAN, per calendar month in each of the schemes and continued with the restrictions for the systematic investment options such as SIP, STP, etc. All these restrictions will be lifted from January, 2023. The AMC also said that in the event of complete exhaustion of the available headroom that is being utilized at present to resume overseas investments, all the subscriptions and investments might be paused again. The five schemes that will be open for subscription from January 1 are:

  • Motilal Oswal S&P 500 Index Fund
  • Motilal Oswal NASDAQ 100 ETF
  • Motilal Oswal NASDAQ 100 Fund of Fund
  • Motilal Oswal MSCI EAFE Top 100 Select Index Fund
  • Motilal Oswal NASDAQ Q 50 ETF
Baroda BNP Paribas Multi Asset Fund collects over Rs 1,200 crore via NFO

Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund on December 22 said it has mobilised over Rs 1,234.72 crore assets under management (AUM) during the new fund offer (NFO) period of its multi-asset fund. The NFO for Baroda BNP Paribas Multi Asset Fund was open from November 28 to December 12, 2022. The fund will reopen for subscriptions on December 26. Baroda BNP Paribas Multi Asset Fund is an open-ended scheme investing in equity, debt and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This is the second new fund offering by Baroda BNP Paribas Asset Management India Pvt Ltd in the last nine months since the formation of the merged entity in March 2022. Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund started operations on March 14 as Baroda Asset Management Company and BNP Paribas Asset Management Company’s merger finally came through after more than two years. The Baroda BNP Paribas Multi Asset Fund invests in a mix of equity, fixed income, and gold ETF. “Equity aims to offer capital growth, fixed income could help to generate income and gold ETF aims to provide a hedge during global crisis/ inflation. The asset classes that the fund invests in have low correlation with each other, with this the fund aims to create an all-rounder portfolio that has the potential to perform across market cycles,” the fund house said in a note. The scheme is benchmarked to 65 percent of the Nifty 500 total return index, 20 percent of the Nifty Composite Debt index and 15 percent of the rupee price of gold.

Gold ETFs log Rs 195-cr outflow in November on profit booking

After attracting funds in October, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a net outflow of Rs 195 crore last month primarily due to profit booking amidst a rally in the markets. B y comparison, the segment had attracted a net inflow of Rs 147 crore in October and Rs 330 crore in September. Prior to that, gold ETFs saw a net withdrawal of Rs 38 crore in August, data with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. While the fund inflow in October was mainly on account of festive season demand as investors might have chosen to buy physical gold. Overall, the gold ETF category has received a net inflow of Rs 1,121 crore so far this year, the data showed. Despite the outflow, the assets under management (AUM) of the instrument surged to Rs 20,833 crore at the end of November from Rs 19,882 crore at October-end. Also, folios rose by over 11,800 to 4.68 million during the period under review.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 22/12/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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