Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21-22

From The Desk Of Editor

Global markets gained during the week on hopes that U.S President Joe Biden and congressional leaders are closer to a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avoid a default. US president Joe Biden on Wednesday said he was “confident” about reaching a budget agreement with Congress to avoid a default on US debt, and left the door open to meeting a central Republican demand of adding work requirements to social safety net programmes. Japanese benchmark Nikkei rallied to the highest since August 1990 powered by a string of strong corporate results, a weaker yen amid views that the Bank of Japan will keep stimulus for longer and an economy that is starting to show signs of a postCOVID consumption revival. The economy expanded an annualised rate of 1.6% in JanuaryMarch, far exceeding market forecasts for a 0.7% gain on a post-COVID consumer rebound. On the recent rise in Japanese inflation above the BOJ's 2% target, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank is unwavering in its stance of patiently maintaining ultraloose monetary policy as Japan has yet to see conditions fall in place for inflation to sustainably hit 2%. Meanwhile, Eurostat data showed that Euro zone economy grew marginally by 0.1% in the first quarter ending March 2023 supporting the statement from European Commission stating that Eurozone economic growth would be faster than previous forecast this year and next.

Back at home, amid disappointment over China’s economic recovery as well as fears that an impending recession in the US may pressure corporate earnings in export-focused economies, Indian stock market saw strong foreign funds buying since last August making it bestperforming benchmarks in the Asia Pacific region this quarter, after those in Japan. Building on the success of the Production Linked Incentive scheme (PLI) for mobile phones, the Union Cabinet has approved PLI Scheme 2.0 for IT hardware with a budgetary outlay of Rs 17,000 crore. Recession in some of the developed economies, as well as the lingering impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is now making a very active impact on the India’s trade as Merchandise exports fell by 12.7 percent and imports fell by 14 percent for the month of April’ 23. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a slight delay in the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala this year. The monsoon is now expected to arrive on June 4th, instead of the usual date of June 1st. Going forward, the market would remain volatile tracking Q4FY2023 corporate earnings and development around U.S debt ceiling.

On the commodity front, CRB saw a pause in fall after a four week continuous fall. Bullion continued its previous week fall as safe haven buying returned in dollar index. The yellow metal tumbled below the $2,000 an ounce level for the first time in two weeks. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 58000-61000 and 69000-74000 with downside bias. Natural gas prices are rebounding on decline in rig counts in an effort to balance the demand and supply equilibrium and can touch 255 on higher side. Base metals may see further correction. PBoC Interest Rate Decision of China, Manufacturing PMI of Euro Area, S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI and Consumer Price Index of UK, FOMC Minutes, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, Building Permits, New Home Sales, Core Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE Price Index and GDP of US, Retail Sales of Australia, etc are many data’s and events which will give further direction to the commodity prices.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • India’s wholesale price index dropped by 0.92% YoY in April and March WPI was reversed to 1.34%. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent fall. Further, this was the first decline in wholesale prices since July 2020.
  • India's trade deficit fell to the lowest since September 2021 on lower exports and imports. The merchandise trade deficit eased to $15.2 billion in April from $18.4 billion a year ago.
Cement
  • Ultratech Nathdwara Cement, the wholly owned subsidiary of Ultratech Cement, commissioned a brownfield cement facility with annual capacity of 0.8 million tonnes in Neem Ka Thana, Rajasthan. The company's total grey cement manufacturing capacity now stands at 129.95 million tonnes per annum.
Information Technology
  • HCL Technologies has expanded its long-standing partnership with SAP. As part of the expanded collaboration, HCLTech has become a customer of and a global strategic service partner for SAP SuccessFactors Human Experience Management Suite (SAP SuccessFactors HXM Suite).
Power
  • National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) Ltd would begin a feasibility study for a 130-MW floating solar power plant on Dumbur Lake in Tripura's Gomati district.
  • KPI Green Energy has received Commissioning Certificates from Gujarat Energy Development Agency for capacity of 7.27 MWdc solar power project through KPI Green Energy and 2.91 MWdc through KPIG Energia Private Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company.
Construction
  • Rail Vikas Nigam, a Rail Vikas Nigam-SCC Infrastructure joint venture has received the letter of award for a project worth Rs 2,248.94 crore to plan, design and construction of main canal and structures in Rajasthan. RVNL has 51 per cent share in the joint venture.
Hotel
  • Lemon Tree Hotels has signed a License Agreement for 82 room property in Gomti Nagar, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh under the Company's brand 'Lemon Tree Premier'. The property is expected to be operational by August, 2026.
Automobile
  • Hero MotoCorp has launched an all-new version of XPulse 200 4V, conforming to the stricter emission norms, starting at Rs 1.43 lakh (ex-showroom Delhi). The 200-cc adventure bike comes with On-Board Diagnostics (OBD-II) and E20 compliant engine. The two trims are priced at Rs 1.43 lakh and Rs 1.5 lakh respectively.
  • MRF has entered into a purchase agreement with First Energy 4 Private Limited for purchase of solar power and would be acquiring up to 19.10% paid up equity of the Company, which would be held during the tenure of the power purchase agreement.
Miscellaneous
  • Surya Roshni has obtained order of Rs 43.69 crore from IGL for supply 3LPE Coated carbon steel pipes from Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) for City Gas Distribution projects in NCT of Delhi.

PIVOT SHEET

MACRO ECONOMIC METER

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US housing starts jumped by 2.2% to an annual rate of 1.401 million in April after plunging by 4.5% to a revised rate of 1.371 million in March. Economists had expected housing starts to drop to an annual rate of 1.405 million from the 1.420 million originally reported for the previous month.
  • US industrial production climbed by 0.5% in April, while revised data showed production was unchanged in each of the two previous months. Economists had expected industrial production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.4% increase originally reported for the previous month.
  • US retail sales rose by 0.4% in April after falling by a revised 0.7% in March. Economists had expected retail sales to climb by 0.7% compared to the 1.0% slump originally reported for the previous month.
  • Eurozone inflation rose as estimated in April on higher food and energy prices, while core inflation slowed slightly. The harmonized index of consumer prices posted an annual growth of 7.0% in April, following a 6.9% rise in March. The rate was in line with the preliminary estimate released on May 2.
  • Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 432.4 billion yen in April. That beat expectations for a shortfall of 613.8 billion yen following the 755.1 billion yen deficit in March.
  • Japan's industrial production expanded more than initially estimated in March. Industrial production rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent month-on-month in March, slower than the strong rebound of 4.6% in February. In the flash report, the rate of increase was 0.8%.
  • Japan's gross domestic product for the first quarter ending March 2023 expanded 0.4% quarter on quarter on a real seasonally adjusted basis and 1.6% on an annualized basis, according to preliminary figures released by the Cabinet Office.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

INDIAN BANK
CMP: 286.70
Target Price: 351
Upside: 22%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 335.35/140.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 35706.80
  • EPS (Rs.) 44.74
  • P/E Ratio (times) 6.41
  • P/B Ratio (times) 0.82
  • Dividend Yield (%) 3.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The business of the bank has increased 8% YoY to Rs 1094752 crore end March 2023, driven by 14% surge in advances to Rs 473586 crore. Deposits rose 5% to Rs 621166 crore at end March 2023.
  • Advances growth was driven by retail loans rising 13% YoY to Rs 91086 crore at end March 2023, while credit to agriculture increased 16% to Rs 101937 crore and MSME 7% to Rs 79656 crore at end March 2023. The corporate credit has also increased 12% to Rs 171242 crore end March 2023. The overseas credit has jumped 49% to Rs 29665 crore end March 2023.
  • It has recorded 25% increase in the interest earned at Rs 12244.42 crore, while interest expenses increased 21% to Rs 6736.10 crore in Q4FY2023. NII improved 29% to Rs 5508.32 crore in the quarter ended March 2023.
  • The CASA deposits of the bank rose 5% YoY to Rs 260809 crore at end March 2023. The current account deposits declined 2% to Rs 35857 crore, while saving account deposits increased 7% to Rs 224952 crore end March 2023. The CASA ratio rose to 42.0% at end March 2023 compared to 41.8% at end March 2022 and 40.4% at the end December 2022.
  • The bank has improved asset quality in Q4FY2023, Gross NPA ratio was at 5.95% as on 31 March 2023 as against 6.53% as on 31 December 2022 and 8.47% 31March 2022. Net NPA ratio was at 0.90% as on 31 March 2023 as against 1 % as on 31 December 2022 and 2.27% as on 31 March 2022. The bank aims to reduce GNPA to below 5% by March 2024.
  • Provision coverage ratio (PCR) stood at 93.82% as of 31st March 2023 improved from 93.59% on 31st December 2022.
  • Capital adequacy ratio was at 16.49%. CET-1 improved by 36 bps YoY to 12.89%. Tier I capital improved by 31 Bps YoY to 13.48%.

Risk

  • Unidentified Asset Slippages.
  • Regulatory Provisioning on assets

Valuation

The bank has been consistently delivering on improving asset quality, cost efficiency, other income and productivity in the past few quarters. Its proactive tech integration ensured a smooth transition. It is one of the best mid-cap PSBs with strong capital ratios across cycles and ability to deliver relatively stronger return ratios as growth accelerates. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.351 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BVx of 0.82x and FY23 BVPS (Book Value Per Share) of Rs.428.19.

P/B Chart

KANSAI NEROLAC PAINTS LIMITED
CMP: 408.40
Target Price: 502
Upside: 23%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 535.90/358.05
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 22009.48
  • EPS (Rs.) 8.79
  • P/E Ratio (times) 46.46
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.85
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.55
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • JKansai Nerolac Paints has been at the forefront of paint manufacturing pioneering a wide spectrum of quality paints. The company is one of the leading paint companies in India and is the leader in Industrial paints. The company has eight strategically located manufacturing units all over India and a strong dealer network across the country.
  • The management highlighted that the journey of exiting low margin paints is progressing well and they are focusing on adding more premium paints. The company has launched 14 new products in the decorative category, which has coloured the demand.
  • The management is focusing to improve its market share in decorative business and expects the segment to grow faster than industrial paints.
  • Consolidated net profit of Rs.19.17 crore in the January-March period a year earlier, recorded a consolidated net profit of Rs.96.24 crore for the fourth quarter ending March 2023, showing a YoY rise of 401.56% YoY. Its revenue from operations surged 12.81 per cent during the quarter under review to Rs.1,733.59 crore compared to Rs.1,536.60 crore in the year-ago quarter.
  • The strong position of the group is underpinned by its technological tie-ups, varied product portfolio and healthy relationships with major OEMs across the passenger car, utility vehicle and two-wheeler segments. Furthermore, technological support from the parent enables the group to introduce high-end products in the form of application as well as power consumption.
  • The company continued with growth initiatives in Decorative and Performance coating. These initiatives which are in the area of feet on street, digital interventions, influencer outreach, new product launches, approvals, and projects have gathered momentum. The results are encouraging, and these initiatives are being expanded to more cities.
  • According to the Q4FY23 release, the size of domestic paint industry is estimated at around Rs. 70000 crores as of March 2023. The good growth in infrastructure, core sector as well as automobile and real estate is likely to have a positive effect on the overall demand of paint for the industry in the long run.

Risk

  • Pricing pressure
  • Intense competition

Valuation

According to the management, during the quarter (Q4FY23) all businesses have done well. Though raw material prices have softened, for the year, inflation is still positive, judicious cost management efforts were continued. This along with various initiatives undertaken in previous quarters has led to the gross margins improving both over the corresponding quarter last year and sequentially. Looking forward demand is expected to remain healthy in the near term. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.502 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year average P/BV of 5.44x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.92.34.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS LIMITED (PERSISTENT)

The stock closed at Rs 4888 on 19th May, 2023. It made a 52- week low of Rs 3092.05 on 26th September, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.5135 on 21st February, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 4240.

In recent past stock took support at its 200 days exponential moving average on daily interval and took almost a “V” shape recovery thereon to once again catch up a fresh momentum above 4600 levels. Stock can be seen recovering with a formation of higher bottom pattern on daily interval, while a fresh breakout above “Cup & Handle” pattern can be seen on weekly charts. Alongside, positive divergences on secondary oscillators suggest for next upswing into prices as bullish momentum is expected to carry in upcoming sessions as well. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 4850-4900 levels for the upside target of 5400-5450 levels with SL below 4550 levels.

COFORGE LIMITED (COFORGE)

The stock closed at Rs 4278 on 19th May, 2023. It made a 52- week low at Rs 3210 on 19th September, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.4512 on 02nd February, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 4007.

This stock has remained on a quite volatile path, so far this year, as prices can be seen fluctuating in broader range with swings seen on both sides. Recently a sharp recovery has been observed in to the prices as stock has once again manage to reclaim a move above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts. Technically stock has given a fresh breakout above the Ascending triangle pattern on daily charts. The follow up buying is expected to continue after a breakout, as positive divergences on secondary oscillators suggests for further upside into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 4250-4275 levels for the upside target of 4750-4800 levels with SL below 3950 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets remained volatile in the week gone by and ended the week almost near an unchanged line as Nifty closed above 18200 levels, while Bank Nifty once again outperformed and gained nearly half a percent over the week. On weekly charts, the IT sector performs well whereas profit booking seen in phama stocks. From the derivative front, option writers remain active in both calls and puts at 18200 strike while marginal put writing was observed at 18000 & 18100 strikes. Banknifty is also struggling to catch up with momentum above the 44000 mark. The implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.03%, while that for put options closed at 11.97%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 12.80%. The PCR OI for the week closed at 0.74, which indicates more call writing on the upside during the week. Technically, both indices look strong on the charts. However, we expect that some consolidation is likely to continue in Indian markets at current levels before the Banknifty takes a leap above its lifetime highs. Nifty on other hand likely to catch up a fresh momentum towards 18500 levels once a decisive move is seen above 18300 in the coming week.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 18th May, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric June futures are likely to trade sideways in next week may keep bias on down side. Prices are in profit booking mood as supplies are increasing after recent gains. Arrivals in Maharashtra are started increasing due to better realization that is likely to put pressure on prices. However, downside will be limited due to weaker production prospects. Growing worries over rising possibilities of El Nino during July- Aug’23 is also likely to cap the downfall in prices. Turmeric production is already down by 7%-10% in year 2022-23 and likely to down further in upcoming season due to weather concerns. Acreages under turmeric may shift to other kharif crops that will lead to fall in production. Turmeric June contract is expected to trade in range of 7800-8600.

Jeera NCDEX June futures are likely to remain volatile as profit booking is likely to be extended with increase in seasonal supply. Surging imports of jeera at cheaper rate is also keeping market sentiments down. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Export demand has also slowed down due to higher prices. Major trend is still bullish due to tighter carryover stocks and below normal arrivals in the market. Quality of the new crop is also questionable after recent rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jeera June futures are expected to trade in range of 41000-49000.

Dhaniya NCDEX June prices likely to remain down due to surging arrival pressure at major trading centers. Overall dhnaiya production is estimated to increase by 8%-10% across India that will keep supplies adequate in coming weeks. However, losses are likely to be limited as prices are ruling at multiyear low and stockiest are looking interested by buy at dip. Dhaniya NCDEX June futures are likely to trade in range of 6300-7000 levels.

BULLIONS

Bullion reacted on strong rebound in dollar index amid improving sentiment over a U.S. debt deal. Gold prices saw dipper correction; especially in gold which somehow managed to stay above the $2000, touched the low of $1954.4. On MCX, it breached the psychological level of 60000 after weeks. Hawkish comments from Fed officials also rattled gold markets, as the prospect of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer pointed to an increased opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Gold bulls would have trouble catching a break so long as the dollar continued its charge higher. The Dollar Index hit a seven-week peak of 103.485 on Thursday amid optimism over a U.S. debt ceiling agreement being struck to avert a potential default before June 1. Silver breached the support of 72000 and closed in red territory. Correction is most likely to shortlived as economic data’s is reflecting bad health of major economies. Central banks buying is giving gold strong base and nullifying the weaker jewelry demand. 2023 could be 14th consecutive year of net gold purchases by global central banks and the highest level of annual demand on record dating back to 1950. If we talk about gold silver ratio, it improved from 1:84 to 1:83.3. It means that fall was more in gold as compared to silver and it is likely to touch 82.5 in short run. One should eye on debt ceiling talk, if progress seen on the same can bring more selling in gold. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 58000-61000 and 69000-74000 with downside bias.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude prices may trade in the range of 5600-6200. The pressure may remain as a solid U.S. economic data spurred the dollar to reach a two-month high on growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in June while optimism over the fading risk of a U.S. debt default may support the counter. U.S. President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy reiterated their aim to strike a deal to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt ceiling. On other side, U.S. inflation does not seem to be cooling fast enough to allow the Federal Reserve to pause its interest-rate hike campaign, according to two Fed policymakers. Also weighing on oil prices, bluechip stocks in China, the world's biggest oil importer, slipped after the country's industrial output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts, suggesting the economic recovery is losing momentum. Another factor that could reduce oil demand was a fire in Mexico at the Salina Cruz refinery owned by Mexican state oil company Pemex. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose about 1% to 7.52 million barrels per day in March from the previous month, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative. Natural gas (May) prices may trade in the range of 205-230. U.S. natural gas storage rose by 99 billion cubic feet last week, the Energy Information Administration said, announcing a smaller-than-expected build that bolstered sentiment in a market that needs to see less stockpile increases and more demand. However, the latest inventory rise put total gas in underground caverns in the United States at 2.24 trillion cubic feet, 30.3% higher from the year-ago level.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias as the growing fear of global recession, tepid demand in top consumer China and improving supply may pressure the market. A stronger dollar may cut demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency, which further got a boost from hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers arguing that inflation is not cooling fast enough yet to allow the Fed to pause rate hikes. In top metals consumer China, industrial output and retail sales grew slower than expected last month, reinforcing concerns of a spillover into the wider global economy and a drop in demand for industrial metals. Copper may trade in the range of 705-740. Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have climbed to their highest levels since early January. Zinc can trade in range of 210-232. Refined zinc prices are expected to be on a downward trend until 2025, as weak demand growth failed to match with a surge in production, analysts said. The global zinc market surplus climbed to 26,700 tonnes in March, while global lead market deficit widened to 21,000 tonnes, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed. Lead can move in the range of 177-186. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-216. Demand for aluminium has slumped in Europe and top consumer China in recent weeks amid a slowing global economy, raising the risk of further downside in prices. Steel long (June) is likely to trade in the range of 45000-47500 with bearish bias on NCDEX . The steel prices are set to bend under the combined weight of a slowdown in global demand, influx of cheap imports from far-eastern Asia and Russia.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton prices are likely to trade sideways to higher on reduced supplies in physical market. Shrinking arrivals and growing worries over weather condition in Jul-Aug with rising possibilities of EI Nino weather phenomenon is likely to support firmness in prices. Cotton Association of India (CAI) further lowered its cotton crop estimate by 465,000 bales for the 2022-23 season to 29.8 million bales as production is expected to decline in Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Odisha. The latest estimate of cotton crop is the lowest since 2008-09 season which was 29.0 million bales. However sluggish exports and muted domestic demand will cap the gains. Cotton is likely to trade in range of 60000 - 63000. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1560-1630.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX June futures are likely to trade on positive bias during the week due to reduced supplies in the market. Bleak production of cotton and lower arrivals has affected the overall production of cotton seed oil cake adversely. Cotton seed oil cake prices are likely to trade in range of 2500- 2900.

Guar seed June futures are likely to trade sideways to higher on rising possibilities of drier spell of monsoon in year 2023. The chance of an El Niño weather phenomenon developing in the coming months that will keep market sentiments up for guar. Drier monsoon is likely to directly affect the sowing progress and yield of guar seed in year 2023. However, market is running with huge stocks of guar seed and bleak demand prospects of gum in wake of weakness in crude oil prices is likely to cap the excessive gains. Guar seed June prices will trade in range of 5400-6000/6200 in near term wherein Guar gum June prices are likely to trade in range of 10500-12500 levels.

Mentha oil May contract is likely to trade on mixed note as short covering is expected soon in wake of shrinking supplies in the market. However, reports of tumbling export of menthol from India will cap the gains. India exported about 11887 tonens of menthol during time period of Apr’22-Feb’23 as compared to 18386 tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Moreover, improved sowing number will also weigh on prices. Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in range of 945-1000.

Castor seed prices are expected to trade sideways to higher as some recovery is likely to be seen in prices due to growing worries over weather in July-Aug, the peak sowing period of castor. However, gains are likely to be limited as higher production and limited export demand of castor oil will cap the major upside movement. Overall Production is estimated at 18.82 lakh tonnes in year 2023 higher by 16% Y-o-Y. Castor seed June prices are likely to hold the support of 5700 will face 6400 as resistance in near term.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

NATGAS MINI MCX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 249.80
M*.Low: 179.00

It closed at Rs. 223.40 on 18th May 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 206.90. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.78. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.215 for a target of Rs. 255 with the stop loss of 200.

ZINC MINI MCX
Contract: MAY
M*.High: 263.00
M*.Low: 223.00

It closed at Rs. 223.50 on 18th May 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 234.03. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 31.36. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 230 for a target of Rs. 210 with the stop loss of 238.

TURMERIC NCDEX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 8700.00
M*.Low: 6606.00

It closed at Rs. 8282.00 on 18th May 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 7768.88 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.623. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 8400 for a target of Rs. 7800 with the stop loss of 8700.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • India’s economy is expected to grow by 6.7 per cent in the calendar year 2024, supported by resilient domestic demand, according to a UN report
  • China produced 3.33 million tonnes of aluminium in April, down from 3.37 million tonnes in March, though that was up 0.8% compared with a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
  • The global zinc market surplus climbed to 26,700 tonnes in March, while global lead market deficit widened to 21,000 tonnes, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed.
  • The Government said total subsidy on fertilizer could touch ₹2.25-lakh crore during FY24. This includes ₹1.08- lakh crore for Khariff season of FY24.
  • China brought in 746,692 tonnes of refined copper in the first quarter, down 12.6% year-on-year and the lowest first-quarter import level since at least 2015, Chinese customs data showed.
  • As per IMD, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed than the normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4, with a model error of ± 4 days. India has predicted a normal monsoon this year, with showers likely to be 96% of a long-term average.
  • The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 200,000 barrels per day to a record 102 million bpd.
  • India imported about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in April, about 4.4% higher than the previous month. This accounts for about two-fifths of the nation's overall purchases, said a Reuters report.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

CRB saw a pause in fall after a four week continuous fall. Bullion continued its previous week fall as safe haven buying returned in dollar index. The yellow metal tumbled below the $2,000 an ounce level for the first time in two weeks as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and easing fears of a U.S. debt default saw traders pivot out of the safe haven. Crude oil made a base near $70 and saw marginal upside whereas MCX crude oil followed the trend. Natural gas was making base and moved northward with baby steps. Oil prices settled up as optimism over oil demand and U.S. debt ceiling negotiations outweighed worries about abundant supply. The optimism outweighed a crude inventory increase of 5 million barrels in the week ended May 12 reported by the Energy Information Administration. However, gasoline stocks drew down by 1.4 million barrels as the four-week gasoline product supplied - a proxy for demand - rose to its highest level since December 2021. After a months-long standoff, the Democratic president and speaker of the House of Representatives on Tuesday agreed to negotiate directly. An agreement needs to be reached and passed by both chambers of Congress before the federal government runs out of money to pay its bills, as soon as June 1. Due to the low pricing environment in 2023, producers are expected to decrease drilling, and in recent week’s market saw lower production volumes due to maintenance; it gave a jump to the natural gas prices. Total gas stored in underground caverns in the United States stood at 2.141 trillion cubic feet, or tcf, during the week ended May 5. That was 31.2% higher from the year-ago level of 1.632 tcf and 18.4% above the five-year average of 1.809 tcf. Base metals moved down; except aluminum. The red metal was hit with a renewed wave of selling on weaker-than-expected economic data from China, as well as increased fears of a U.S. recession this year. In China, April industrial output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts, suggesting the economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter.

Castor prices dragged down further. Jeera prices dropped from the high of around 49300 to 44000 on increase supply from Turkey and Syria. They are offering lower price to the rest of world. Turmeric prices gave up some of its weekly gain but closed in green territory. Losses in prices were limited due to weaker production prospects supported by delayed monsoon forecast. India Meteorological Department projected onset of monsoon is likely to be delayed by three days. The southwest monsoon, which normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, is likely to arrive on June 4. Guar counter was in pressure on sluggish buying in local market amid heavy stocks of seeds with farmers.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

16

COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Jeera… “Minting Money with Flavor”

Jeera is not only a flavoring agent with its tinge but nowadays its price has also surprised the market players with a dash of profit. Jeera was cynosure of 2022 with more than 103% strong rally due to supply concerns as production dropped in major producing states across India and higher export. Supply pipelines in both India and abroad have been empty for a year due to weather and political factors.

2023 has also started with bang as rally is continued. The prices of jeera have shot up more than 60% since start of the year to record high levels amid continued supply shortages in India and other major jeera-growing countries. The prices zoomed to an all-time high of above Rs 49200 on May 10.

Production scenario in India

India is the world’s largest cumin producing country, contributes about 70% of total world output. The other major cumin-producing countries are Syria (13%), Turkey (5%), UAE (3%), and Iran. Gujarat accounts for around 65 per cent of the country’s jeera production followed by neighbouring state Rajasthan.

According to Gujarat government's third advance estimates released, in 2022-23, jeera production is estimated to fall 9.3% on year to 200,780 tons from 221500 tons in 2021-22. In major APMC, after the unseasonal rainfall, daily jeera arrivals dropped to 25,000-30,000 bags (1 bag=55 kg) across the country, half of last year. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) produced a crop estimate for seed spices in February this year, forecasting the jeera crop for 2022-23 at 3.84 lakh tonnes (69.96 million bags of 55 kg each), up 28% from last year's 3.01 lakh tonnes.

Around 60 to 65 per cent of the crop has already arrived in Rajasthan and it was about 65 to 70 per cent in Gujarat. Out of the estimated 50 million bags of cumin crop, 28 to 30 million bags have already reached the market. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year.

Demand of jeera

India has been the largest exporter of jeera; export around more than 100 countries across the globe where China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, USA and UAE are the major buyers of Indian jeera; contributes more than 60% of total export from India. India exports around 30% of its annual production and plays a crucial role in global trade. Jeera export from India has grown with CAGR of 14% in last 7 years due to rising international demand especially from China.

However, the cumin crop in Afghanistan is expected to be larger than the previous year. Furthermore, Syrian cumin traders predict a crop of 20,000 to 30,000 tonne, which would be the largest crop in the past ten years, provided that the weather remains favorable in Syria for the next month.

Jeera is likely to be remain hot pick for traders and stockiest in coming days in wake of rising demand from household as well as from Hotel and restaurant industry. Market expects prices to remain firm due to rise in demand and lower supply by Syria and Turkey in the international market is expected to fuel Jeera prices in international market as well.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

During the past week, the Indian Rupee (INR) experienced a decline, reaching its lowest level against the US Dollar (USD) in eight weeks. This downward trend has sparked concerns regarding the future performance of the currency pair. However, it is worth noting that the Rupee appears to be relatively less vulnerable to a potential US government default compared to other major economies such as Japan and China. This is primarily due to India's moderate holdings of US Treasury securities and a lower external debt-to- GDP ratio, which is favorable compared to the average for emerging markets. In the upcoming days, a modest appreciation of the Rupee is expected. This positive outlook is supported by strong fundamentals and external balances, creating a favorable environment for the currency. However, it is important to acknowledge that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may intervene to limit any significant decline should the Rupee approach the 83.00 level against the US Dollar. The RBI's actions will play a crucial role in stabilizing the currency and ensuring its resilience. On a global scale, the US Dollar continues to exhibit strength, maintaining six-month highs against the Japanese Yen and seven-week highs against the Euro. This can be attributed to optimism surrounding progress in US debt ceiling negotiations and encouraging economic data. As a result, expectations of multiple US interest rate cuts this year have been reduced.

USDINR (MAY)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 82.30 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 83.10 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.23 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 68.88.

One can buy near 82.50 for the target of 83.10 with the stop loss of 82.20.

GBPINR (MAY)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 101.45 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 103.60 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 102.60. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.00.

One can buy near 102.40 for the target of 103.40 with the stop loss of 101.90.

EURINR (MAY) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 88.50 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 90.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 89.75. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.48.

One can sell near 89.50 for the target of 88.50 with the stop loss of 90.00.

JPYINR (MAY) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 59.50 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 61.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 60.89. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.58.

One can sell near 60.50 for the target of 59.50 with the stop loss of 61.00.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

Hero Electric IPO – CEO Sohinder Gill reveals listing Plans

To achieve its target of 2 million vehicle sales in the next three-five years, Hero Electric is reportedly planning to launch its IPO by 2025-26. The company is planning to get listed on the Indian bourses in the next two years, the CEO of Hero Electric, Sohinder Gill told the Business Standard. To raise funds to expand its capital expenditure, the company is looking to raise funds from both equity and debt sources, reported the business daily quoting the company CEO. Sohinder Gill also said that, before going public by the end of 2025-26, the company aims to expand its market share to 2 million as he considers it the right time to launch an IPO.

Govt invites bids for IREDA IPO

Continuing the process of disinvestment in Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (Ireda), the government has now invited bids for the engagement of a registrar and share transfer agent (RTA). The Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (Dipam) is already working for the engagement of book running lead managers or BRLMs and the legal adviser for Ireda disinvestment. The government intends to offload 25 per cent of its equity in clean energy lender by way of the initial public offering (IPO), official sources told Bizz Buzz, adding that the IPO would come out this fiscal.

Nexus Select Trust lists at 3% premium

Nexus Select Trust was listed with a decent premium of 3 percent over the issue price of Rs 100 per unit on the National Stock Exchange on May 19. This is the fourth REIT listing on the bourses since 2019. The opening price on the NSE was Rs 103, which was on the expected lines. On BSE it debuted at Rs 102.27, up 2.27 percent. Analysts had largely expected a 3-5 percent listing premium for the REIT. The initial public offering of India’s leading consumption center platform with 17 best-in-class urban consumption centers across 14 cities had received a healthy response from investors last week subscribing 5.45 times as the portion set aside for institutional investors was subscribed 4.81 times and that of non-institutional investors 6.23 times during May 9-11.

Jupiter Life Line Hospitals files documents for IPO

Private hospital chain Jupiter Life Line Hospitals Ltd has filed draft papers with the Securities Exchange Board of India to raise funds via initial public offerings. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of Rs 615 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 4.45 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS consists of upto 1.25 million shares by Devang Vasantlal Gandhi (HUF), upto 9 lakh shares by Devang Gandhi jointly with Neeta Gandhi, upto 1 million shares by Nitin Thakker jointly with Asha Thakker, and upto 4 lakh shares each by Anuradha Ramesh Modi with Megha Ramesh Modi and Bhaskar P Shah (HUF).

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

SIPs and bank FDs attract investors amid volatility and new tax rules

Change in taxation of non-equity funds, equity markets nearing a new high and interest rates at a crucial juncture make investing difficult. Volatility in mutual fund inflows is an indication of the same. Moneycontrol spoke with some of the leading distributors to understand investor sentiment, and uncovered some interesting trends.

Sebi proposes big changes to mutual fund fees to bring down costs

The capital markets regulator has proposed sweeping changes to the way mutual funds charge fees to investors for managing their money. The Securities and Exchange Board of India said in a discussion paper late Thursday that mutual funds must make the total expense ratio - the annual fee that these asset managers collect from unitholders - uniform for scheme categories such as equity or debt. The capital markets regulator has proposed sweeping changes to the way mutual funds charge fees to investors for managing their money. The Securities and Exchange Board of India said in a discussion paper late Thursday that mutual funds must make the total expense ratio - the annual fee that these asset managers collect from unitholders - uniform for scheme categories such as equity or debt.

SBI Mutual Fund launches SBI S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund

SBI Mutual Fund has announced the launch of the SBI S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund, an open-ended scheme tracking the S&P BSE Sensex Index. The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on May 24. The scheme will commence for sale/ repurchases within five business days from the date of allotment.

Sebi proposes big changes to mutual fund fees to bring down costs

HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd on Tuesday announced the launch of the country's first mutual fund focussed on defence sector, a move that will provide investors an opportunity to participate in growth potential of this space. The new fund offering (NFO) of HDFC Defence Fund, an open-ended equity scheme, would open on May 19 and close on June 2, HDFC AMC said in a statement.

NEW FUND OFFER

21

MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY - LARGE CAP FUND

EQUITY - MID CAP FUND

EQUITY - SMALL CAP FUND

EQUITY - TAX SAVING FUND

BALANCED ADVANTAGE FUND

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 18/05/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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