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lobal stock markets saw some profit booking as the initial earnings outcome Gfailed to stimulate bulls. Both U.S. and China are expected to reach a deal by the end of May to end the nine month trade war that has roiled the markets and threatened global growth. Recently, global finance ministers and central bankers said that they are prepared to act promptly in case world economy faces downside risks that include trade tensions, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, etc. Europe’s biggest economy Germany is heading for the worst year since 2013 and is expected to see growth of 0.5 percent, half the pace that was previously forecasted. US-Japan trade talks kicked off during the week and the Bank of Japan chief commented on the risks of increasing trade protectionism for the global economic growth outlook. Chinese economy growth for the first quarter ending March 2019 came at 6.4 percent higher than the estimates of 6.3 percent but it is difficult to make out that whether the economy has stabilised or it is temporary.
Back at home, investors continue to remain largely on the buy side after India Meteorological Department (IMD) first stage forecast that rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal. Also foreign investors have been investing heavily in the domestic market and this has pushed the markets higher. However on Thursday, domestic markets slipped lower, dragged by banking shares, as sentiments soured a day after debt-ridden Jet Airways Ltd was forced to halt all operations after running out of funds. Meanwhile, the WPI for the month of March, 2019 rose by 0.4 percent to 120.0 from 119.5 for the previous month. Indian exports showed a healthy growth of 11% in March, which took the growth for the full year to 9%. Going forward, stock specific movement is expected in the market ahead of quarterly results.
On the commodity front, among bullions-gold & in energy complex-natural gas broke its major support levels last week, while base metals traded under pressure. On domestic as well as in the international market, gold is trading below its 200 days average levels due to string of positive economic indications from both United States and China, which sowed that the global economy might not be in much pain as expected. China's economy growing at a steady pace in the first quarter & U.S., trade deficit falling to an eight-month low in February took the shine away from safe-haven bullion. In the energy section, the upbeat mood of oil prices has taken a pause, however, the sentiments are still bullish on the back of renewed fighting in Libya and sanctions on Venezuela and the approaching expiration of U.S. waivers for importers of Iranian oil. Selling pressure continued to be seen in base metals as the market participants waited for developments on the US/China trade deal. Some important data are scheduled this week such as U.S Existing Home Sales, Core Durable Goods Orders, which may influence commodities prices going forward.
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• India's Wholesale price inflation rose to a three-month high of 3.18 percent in March from 2.93 percent in February. Economists had expected a 3.23 percent rise. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 3.18 percent compared to a build up rate of 2.74 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
• India's CPIrose 2.86 percent year-on-yearfollowing a 2.57 percentrise in February. The reading matched economists' expectations. Food inflation rebounded to 0.3 percentin March from a fall of 0.73 percentin February.
• Larsen & Toubro has won significant contracts for critical reactors, equipment and systems for Process Plant sector, against stiff global competition. Orders from international clients are mainly from the US, Europe, Middle East and South East Asia. The company classifies significant contracts of value between Rs 1000-2500 crore.
• Zydus Cadila has received the final approval from the USFDA to market Acetazolamide for Injection USP (US RLD —Diamox for Injection), 500 mg per single-dose vial. It will be manufactured at the group's formulations manufacturing facility at Moraiya, Ahmedabad.
• Cipla announced that its subsidiary, Cipla Medpro South Africa will acquire a 30% stake upon closure in the connected healthcare company, Brandmed. In February, Cipla had announced a similar partnership in India with Wellthy Therapeutics to offer a clinically-validated digital disease management platform to patients in cardio-metabolic health.
• Lupin has received approval for its Fluoxetine Tablets USP, 10 mg and 20 mg, from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to market a generic version of Eli Lilly and Company's (Eli Lilly) Prozac Tablets, 10 mg and 20 mg. Lupin's Fluoxetine Tablets USP, 10 mg and 20 mg, is the generic version of Eli Lilly's Prozac Tablets, 10 mg and 20 mg.
• Cyient has rolled out a portfolio of services and solutions that help Communication Service Providers (CSPs) expedite 5G network rollouts globally. The services will not only help in defining the migration roadmap towards the 5G NSA standard, but also help in planning smarter and faster rollouts, including site verification and benchmarking in post deployment operations.
• Lux Industries has launched India's first scented vest range under their flagship brand Lux Cozi. To fight the rising mercury during summers the refreshing scented vests will be a landmark product in the men's innerwear category. Bollywood star Varun Dhawan, the heartthrob of Young India and the Brand Ambassador for Lux Cozi launched the scented vest range in Mumbai.
• US wholesale inventories edged up by 0.2 percent in February after surging up by 1.2 percent in January. Economists had expected inventories to climb by 0.5 percent.
• US trade deficit narrowed to $49.4 billion in February from $51.1 billion in January, while economists had expected the deficit to widen to $53.5 billion.
• US industrial production dipped by 0.1 percent in March after inching up by 0.1 percent in February. Economists had expected production to rise by 0.2 percent.
• Eurozone trade surplus increased in February to its highest level in nearly a year. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose to EUR 19.5 billion from EUR 17.4 billion in January. The surplus was the biggest since March 2018, when it was EUR 20.4 billion.
• China's GDP grew 6.4 percent year-on-year, same as in the final three months of 2018. Economists had expected 6.3 percent growth.
Japan posted a merchandise trade surplus of 528.5 billion yen in March. That exceeded expectations for a surplus of 363.2 billion yen and was up from 334.9 billion yen in February. Exports were down 2.4 percent on year, beating expectations for a decline of 2.6 percent following the 1.2 percent drop in the previous month. Imports were up 1.1 percent on year versus expectations for a gain of 2.8 percent following the 6.6 percent contraction a month earlier.
|Stocks||*Closing Price||Trend||Date Trend Changed||Rate Trend Changed||SUPPORT||RESISTANCE||Closing S/l|
|S&P BSE SENSEX||39140||UP||08.02.19||36546||36300||35300|
Closing as on 18-04-2019
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
|23-04-2019||Tata Global||Quarterly Results,Final Dividend & Others|
|24-04-2019||Bharti Infra.||Quarterly Results|
|24-04-2019||Hexaware Tech.||Quarterly Results,Interim Dividend|
|24-04-2019||ICICI Pru Life||Accounts,Final Dividend|
|24-04-2019||IndiabullsHous.||Quarterly Results, Int. Div & Others|
|24-04-2019||M & M Fin. Serv.||Quarterly Results, Dividend, AGM|
|24-04-2019||Tata Elxsi||Accounts, Dividend|
|25-04-2019||Multi Comm. Exc.||Accounts,Final Dividend|
|25-04-2019||Nestle India||Interim Dividend|
|26-04-2019||Axis Bank||Final Dividend,Accounts & Others|
|26-04-2019||Hero Motocorp||Accounts,Final Dividend|
|26-04-2019||Yes Bank||Accounts,Final Dividend & Others|
|28-04-2019||L&T Fin.Holdings||Quarterly Results,Dividend|
|29-04-2019||Castrol India||Quarterly Results|
|30-04-2019||Exide Inds||Quarterly Results,Final Dividend|
|30-04-2019||TVS Motor Co.||Accounts|
|23-04-2019||BhartiAirtel||Rights 19:67 @ Premium Rs 215 Per Share|
|24-04-2019||Huhtamaki PPL||Dividend -Rs 3 Per Share|
|25-04-2019||Quick Heal Tech||Buy Back|
|25-04-2019||MindTree||Interim/ Special Dividend|
|26-04-2019||ABB India||Dividend - Rs 4.80 Per Share|
|26-04-2019||Sanofi India||Dividend - Rs 66 Per Share|
|30-04-2019||Nestle India||Dividend - Rs 25 Per Share|
ADITYA BIRLA CAPITAL LIMITED
Target Price: 120
|Face Value (Rs.)||10.00|
|52 Week High/Low||166.00/77.55|
|M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.)||22278.21|
|P/E Ratio (times)||0.00|
|P/B Ratio (times)||2.51|
• Aditya Birla Capital is a financial services arm of the Aditya Birla Group. Its key businesses include a diversified NBFC, housing finance company, life and health insurance companies and an asset management company.
• Its total assets under management stood at Rs 2,58,833 crores at end Q3 FY19. Domestic equity Average Assets under Management (AAUM) grew 9% YoY. Keeping its focus on expanding its retail presence, investor folios have doubled over last 2 years to reach 68 lakhs as at end Q3 FY19.
• Totallendingbook (includinghousing financebusiness) grew 29% YoY to Rs. 60,129 crores vs. Rs. 46,522 Crores. Its overall lending book is backed by wellmatched asset and liability mix and adequate liquidity pipeline to meet growth requirement. It raised about Rs. 9,000 crores oflong-term funds duringQ3 FY19 and continues to maintain healthy quality of its book. Its NBFC’s Net Interest Margin expanded by 37 bps YoY to 4.85%, as a result of change in mix of the SME, Retail and HNI businesses to 49% and maintained Housing finance’sNetInterestMarginsat3.3%.
• In its insurance business, total gross premium of life insurance and health insurance grew by 39% to Rs. 1,998 crores. Individual First Year Premium (FYP) grew a significant 68% YoY. Market share (excl. LIC) increased 138 bps YoY to 4.0%. Also, sharp improvement in margins were seen led by scale, product mix and productivity improvements.
• The Revenue of the company grew 26% YoY to Rs. 4,119 Crores. The company’s net profit reflected a significant growth of 42% YoY to Rs. 206 Crores.
• Regulatory provisions on tightening of fees & commissions
• Adverse capital markets
Aditya Birla Capital is well positioned to tap the opportunities of the financial industry. It is expected to emerge stronger on the back of its wide distribution franchise, a successful multi-channel strategy, a long history of product innovations and operational efficiency. Being part of a large, respected conglomerate, it also has the advantage of multiple financial relationships and easy access to liquidity compared to peers. It is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 120 in 8 to 10 months time frame at a FY20E BVPS of Rs. 47.90 and current PBx of 2.51 times.
BRIGADE ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Target Price: 310
|Face Value (Rs.)||10.00|
|52 Week High/Low||308.60/157.10|
|M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.)||3371.86|
|P/E Ratio (times)||15.88|
|P/B Ratio (times)||1.54|
|Dividend Yield (%)||0.81|
• Brigade is one of India’s leading developers in South India primarily in Bengaluru market with the Group's business is broadly divided into three segments, which are Real Estate, Lease Rental andHospitality.
• On the development front, the company is developing about 18.46 million sq. ft across residential, office, retail and hotel segments. Further,launches to the extent of about 9.04 million sq.ftin coming quarters across all segments.
• Company’s net debt standing as on December 31, 2018 is Rs. 2,834 crores and debt to equity stood at 1.03x till December 2019.
• Its hospitality business includes operational hotels viz. Sheraton Grand Bengaluru, Grand Mercure, Bengaluru and Mysore, Holiday Inn Chennai, etc. The occupancy rate across the Group's s marquee hotels has been very healthy during the year. The hospitality segment clocked a turnover of Rs. 80 crores and an EBITDAof 22% in Q3 versus a turnover of Rs. 74 crores and an EBITDAof 28% in Q2 FY 2019.
• The company holds the license to construct World Trade Centers (WTC) in South India. It has built WTC in Bengaluru and Kochi (Tower-I), which are already operational and is further constructing WTC, Kochi (Tower-II) and WTC, Chennai. These are expected to be operational by FY20.
• During March 2019, it has launched “Buzzworks” –the company’snewbrandinco-working space.Co-working typically caters to(i) small startups,(ii)individuals and (iii) transition space to bigger organizations. Buzzworks will launch over 2,500 seats across seven locations and three cities in the coming months. Its
geographical reach will initially include Bangalore, Kochi and GIFT City.It also plans to partner with food & beverage services,gyms and salons at these locations.
• Increase in escalation cost due to delay in projects
• Political uncertainties and changes in regulations
The company is doing well and its commercial and residential growth prospects look attractive. The recent initiatives such as boost to affordable housing and RERA act will be beneficial for organized players and the company is fully geared up to capitalize on it. It is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 310 in 8-10 months time frame on a one year average P/E 16.67 of and FY20 EPS of Rs.18.60.
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
The stock closed at Rs 2149.25 on 18th April, 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1711.15 on 05th June 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 3674.80 on 25th May 2018. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1923.80
Stock has been maintaining its uptrend and trading in a rising channel with a formation of higher high and higher bottom pattern on daily and weekly interval. This week we have observed fresh breakout above the symmetrical triangle pattern along with positive divergence on secondary oscillators, which points towards more upside in prices moving forward. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 2140-2150 levels for the upside target of 2280-2290 levels with SL below 2050
The stock closed at Rs 366.10 on 18th April, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 282.95 on 11th October 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 396.60 on 20th December 2018. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 347.58
Stock has been consolidating in broader range of 330 to 350 from last six weeks below its 200 days exponential moving average on daily interval. However, last week a consolidation breakout above the key resistance level of 350 has been observed, along with breakout above the symmetrical triangle pattern. Additionally stock has also witnessed follow up buying this week as well and has been managed to close above its long term moving averages on daily interval. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 360-365 levels for the upside target of 395-400 levels with SL below 345.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
In the week gone by, Nifty closed in red after making all time high due to profit booking. Only energy index managed to close in green. On the derivative front, call writers were aggressively writing ATM and OTM call option whereas put writing on lower strike was observed. The maximum call open interest buildup of more than 31 lakh shares at 12000 strikes has been observed, which should act as strong resistance zone in this series. However, on downside Nifty has multiple strong supports at lower levels, which are placed at 11700-11650 spot levels. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 13.42% while put options closed at 13.87%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 21.69% and is expected to remain sideways. The current PCR (put call ratio) closed at 1.46, which indicates more OTM put writing and is a bullish sign. Among Nifty put options, the 11500-strike call has the highest open interest of more than 28 lakh shares. On the technical front, 12000-11950 spot levels is resistance zone and support is at 11500-11600 levels. Nifty is expected to trade in this range and is likely to consolidate at higher levels.
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
In turmeric futures (May), consolidation with a downside bias can be seen in a broader range of 6200-6700. The sentiments of the market participants are not encouraging as the farmers are in a hurry to sell their produces since the spot prices are trading near to 3 months low. It is reported that nearly 80% of turmeric farmers of Nizamabad district are selling their crop had sold the crop as the yield is fetching them below Rs.7,000 a quintal, much below their cost of cultivating of Rs.8,000 per quintal. Taking advantage of the lower price, the traders are buying this yellow spice from Nizamabad & selling in the Sangli market, making a profit of at least Rs.2,000 per quintal. The bull-run is likely to prevail in jeera futures (May) and in days to come it may test 17100-17400 levels. The increase is attributed to peak in export demand. March and April are the prominent period for cumin exports from India. In the present scenario, we are witnessing a shift in demand to India as output in major producers Syria and Turkey is seen lower. Shortages in the international market have given the Indian exporters an edge to become the sole suppliers & become a price setter. Coriander futures (May) is trapped in the range of 7050- 7250 since past two weeks. This commodity is seeing selling pressure from higher levels, while on the contrary also witnessing buying on dips. However, the overall bias is positive amidst due to concerns of output & the supply constraints may drive the counter to 7600, as soon as it breaches 7350 levels.
Bullion counter may continue to trade on bearish path supported by better than expected economic growth reading from China. Chinese data showed that in Q1 the pace of economic growth remained steady at 6.4%, beating expectations for a 6.3% expansion. An important change in market psychology has occurred just the past few weeks result to this, Gold is trading near 4- months low as China fuels risk sentiments and investors pull their money from safe heaven and park in riskier assets. There are also signs of progress between U.S, & Sino trade negotiations and strong U.S. economic data readings have further strengthen risk appetites since the start of the Q2. In the U.S., trade deficit fell to an eight-month low in February as imports from China plunged, boosting the country's economic growth in the first quarter. The two counties have set a tentative timeline for the next round of trade talks and aim to conclude negotiations by early June. Among a string of positive economic indications were data from both United States and China that tempered concerns about global growth and took the sheen off safehaven bullion. Based on Technical chart patterns, correction in Gold may continue and find support near 31200 levels a breach below 31200 levels opens the doors towards 30900 levels, whereas immediate resistance holds at 31600-31650 levels. Higher volatility is expected in the counter. On the other hand, Silver bears have overall near-term technical advantage. Prices could faces resistance near 38200 levels and may find support near 36500-36200. Overall bias is bearish for the bullion counter as risk aversion in marketplace that is seeing monies flows into riskier asset classes than safe heaven.
Soybean futures (May) is giving a lower closing since past two weeks & this bearishness is likely to get continued till 3650 levels.The market participants are turning more bearish in this oilseed due to hopes of higher production in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) following forecast of "near normal" monsoon. Secondly, the decline in soybean prices on Chicago Board of Trade is weighing on sentiments. The two countries have tentatively scheduled a fresh round of face-to-face trade talks, with negotiators aiming to hold a signing ceremony in late May or early June. Mustard futures (May) is continuously testing the support level near 3755 & observing selling pressure because of sustaining supply of last season crop and lukewarm demand from oil millers. In days to come,the counter would probably come down to test 3700 levels owing to prevailing weakness in overall oilseed complex. Moreover, the absence of demand for mustard meal from China & sluggish buying by NAFED is weighing on the sentiments. Soy oil futures (May) is likely to consolidate in the range of 720-728 levels, CPOfutures (May) willremain trapped in the range of 535-550 levels. The rising vegetable oil imports are creating a supply pressure & have forced the oilseed crushing units and edible oil refineries to reduce their operating capacity steadily to below the sustainable level of 30%. There is less demand for the domestically produced oils, since the imported refined oil is cheaper. The share of refined oil in the overall import in March has sequentially risen steadily to & with profit margins narrowing for processing of CPO in domestic refineries, Indian processing units are focusing on import of more refined oilthan crude oil.
Crude oil prices rallied to its highest level this year & may continue to extend recent gains as propelled by ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC + and by U.S. sanctions on petroleum exporters Iran and Venezuela. Oil markets continued to support by steady economic growth in China. China’s economy grew by 6.4 percentin the first quarter, official data showed, defying expectations for a further slowdown and assuaging global markets as a U.S.-China trade deal also appears near. Refinery throughput in China - the world’s second-largest crude user - rose 3.2% in March from a year earlier. Global supply has been tightened further by U.S. sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran. Iran’s crude exports have dropped in April to their lowest daily level this year, tanker data showed and industry sources said, suggesting a drawdown in buyer interest ahead of expected further pressure from Washington. In June, OPEC and its partners will decide whetherto extend their agreement, but Russia’s willingness to stick with the cuts now looks less clear. Based on technical chart, analysis correction is due as prices are facing hurdle at 4500 levels. A breach below 4380 levels can open the doors towards 4000 levels which can be considered as good buying opportunity in crude. On weekly basis Crude may faces strong resistance in the range of 4520-4540 levels whereas could find support near 4300 levels. U.S. Natural gas futures slipped to its lowest in almost three years. Due to a warmer than normal winter in China & spring shoulder period, demand has declined and will not likely receive a boost until June. LNG exports decline putting pressure onNatural gas price.
Cotton futures (Apr) is expected to hover range bound within 22000-22600 levels. Restricted arrivals are slowing down the pace of overseas demand due to which cotton exports from the country are pegged at 47 lakh bales (one bale weighs 170kg) in 2018-19, which is the lowest since 2009-10. Chana futures (May) may trade with a negative bias & selling from higher levels near 4570 may bring the counter down to 4430. The expectation of country importing more pulses & lack of demand in the spot markets due to absence of bulk buying will exert pressure on pulses in days to come. Recently, the Commerce Ministry has laid down a procedure for import of 2 lakh tonnes of pigeon peas/ toor dal, 1.5 lakh tonnes urad dal, 1.5 lakh tonnes moong dal and 1.5 lakh tonnes peas (including yellow peas, green peas, dun peas, and kaspa peas) for the current fiscal and has invited applications from millers. Next week, we may see more downside in guar seed & guar gum futures (May) and it may test 4250-4200 & 8600-8500 levels respectively. The reason for this bearishness is the forecast of good monsoon & guar being a rain-fed crop, this is a major negative factors for the prices. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has updated that El Nino would be short-lived and weak. This forecast is supporting the India Met Department (IMD) outlook that monsoon would be close to normal. The BoM has also mentioned that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could possibly turn into a positive phase during June to November, giving way to a healthy Indian monsoon.
Base metal counter are expected to trade sideways with downside getting capped owing to optimistic sentiments prevailing on the international market. China's economy grew at a steady 6.4 percent pace in the first quarter, defying expectations for a further slowdown, as industrial production jumped sharply and consumer demand showed signs of improvement. Copper may trade sideways in the range of 465-445 levels on MCX. Copper prices hit a nine-month high on Wednesday as firmer-than-expected economic growth figures from China boosted expectations for higher demand in the world's top metals consumer. Benchmark copper touched its highest since July 3. Technically, Zinc may trade with bearish bias break below 220 levels can take counter towards 217-215 levels whereas it can faces resistance at 232 levels. Lead can move in sideways range of 130-136 levels; break and sustain above 136 levels can take countertowards 142 levels whereas another scenario indicates that break below 130 levels can take towards 126 levels. Nickel may hover in the negative zone in the range of 860-895 levels. Shanghai nickel and zinc fell 1.1% and 0.8 percent, respectively, mirroring a decline in the Chinese ferrous complex. Aluminum prices may trade in the range of 143-155 levels. China's aluminium production fell 3.6 percent on a daily basis in March from the previous two months to its lowest rate since October, pressured by winter curbs on industry and low prices. This pushed Shanghai aluminium up as high as 13,995 yuan ($2,092.59) a tonne, its highestintra-day level sinceDecember.
CRUDE OIL MCX (MAY) contract closed at Rs.4438 on 17th Apr’19. The contract made its high of Rs.4516 on 09th Apr’19 and a low of Rs.3942 on 08th Mar’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4339.On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.03.
One can buy at Rs. 4300 for a target of Rs.4700 with the stop loss of Rs. 4200.
NICKEL MCX (APR)? contract closed at Rs. 892.50 on 17th Apr’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 973.50 on 05th Mar’19 and a low of Rs. 876.40 on 18th Apr’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 900.20. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39.77.
One can sell around Rs. 895-900 for a target of Rs. 850 with the stop loss of Rs. 920.
JEERANCDEX (MAY) contract closed at Rs. 16650.00 on 18th Apr’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 16935.00 on 18th Apr’19 and a low of Rs. 15,090 on 25th Feb’19. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 16222.00. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.633.
OOne can buy at Rs. 16500 for a target of Rs. 17200 with the stop loss of Rs 16200.
• The monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5% - India Meteorological Department
• The overall import of vegetable oils during November 2018 to March 2019 is reported at 6,309,406 tons compared to 5,931,829 tons i.e. up by 6%.
• India's cotton output estimated to fall 7.87% to 343 lakh bales. - Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI)
• The Federal Reserve said US economic activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April. The US trade deficit also narrowed to $49.4 billion in February from $51.1 billion in January.
• Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose to EUR 19.5 billion in February from EUR 17.4 billion in January, figures from Eurostat showed.
• China’s economy expanded by 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019.
• World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand will reach 1735 million tonnes (mt) in 2019, an increase of 1.3% over 2018. In 2020, demand is projected to grow by 1.0% to reach 1752 mt.
• The world merchandise trade volume growth to fall to 2.6% in 2019, as compared to 3% in 2018. Trade growth could then rebound to 3.0% in 2020; however, this is dependent on an easing of trade tensions. - WTO
Commodities traded in pressure with higher volatility bolstered by signs of stabilization in China. Many commodities, especially; precious metals reacted negatively as progress in USChina trade talks lifted risk sentiment. China’s economy grew by 6.4 percent in the first quarter, official data showed, defying expectations for a further slowdown and assuaging global markets. In the bullion counter, both gold and silver were weak; however, gold was comparatively weak. Dollar index stuck in sideways territory but a bearish move could happen, if the US retail sale shows a big drop in consumer spending. Brent oil surged to its highest level in 2019, backed by steady economic growth in China and a fall in US crude inventory which defied expectations and signalled firm demand, while global supply remained tight. Refinery throughput in China - the world's second-largest crude user - rose 3.2% in March from a year earlier. Global supply has been tightened further by US sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran. Iran's crude exports have dropped in April to their lowest daily level this year, tanker data showed and industry sources said, suggesting a drawdown in buyer interest ahead of expected further pressure from Washington. In June, OPEC and its partners will decide whether to extend their agreement, but Russia's willingness to stick with the cuts now looks less clear. Due to a warmer than normal winter in China & spring shoulder period, demand has declined and will not likely receive a boost until June. LNG exports decline putting pressure on Natural gas price, the weather is expected to be normal over the next 8-14 days.
Among agro commodities, castor turned out to be the leader as it maintained its uptrend on the back of the stringent supply & estimates that production for 2018-19 is estimated to decline by 21.37% as compared to the last year. Cardamom also rose to two month high as the scorching heat and lack of summer rain are drying up the plantation as well as lowering the expectations of good crop this season. Jeera maintained it bull-run owing to the rising optimism of better exports from India, being the sole supplier in the international market. On the contrary, guar complex crashed amidst the report that monsoon is expected to be near to normal, while turmeric prices were hammered by rising arrivals from fresh ongoing harvest in the major producing regions.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) report, which was released on 15th April, Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPAof the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. El Niño, generally associated with low rainfall, is expected to be weak during the start of the monsoon season in June with reduced intensity in the later part of the season. Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season.
IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of June, 2019
• Forecast suggests that the 2019 Southwest monsoon rainfall is likely to be near normal. However, there is very less chance for the monsoon rainfall to be above normal or excess.
• The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have s trong influence on Indian monsoon are b e i n g c o n ti n u o u s l y monitored.
• Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 percent
The monsoon was dismal in 2018 ending with an overall deficit of 9.4%, pushing several states—including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Gujarat, Telangana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh—into drought.
Impact on Indian economy
If the forecast turn out well, this will provide much-needed relief to the rural, agriculture sector in terms of agri output, which is under stress due to previous year’s poor seasonal rainfall. Though the impact of agriculture on the economy has come down over the years, it still is an important factor to the rural economy and its cascading effect on India Inc’s balance sheet. Agriculture, which contributes 15 per cent to India's GDP and employs about 60 per cent of the country's population, is heavily dependent on the monsoon as only 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation. It also augurs well for the inflation outlook. Rice, soybean and pulses could be well benefitted by normal rainfall in central and western India; these crops are mainly grown on rainfed areas. Higher farm sector growth would push up India's economic growth. A clearer picture & detailed forecasts on regional distribution will be made in early June, by when more information on El Niño and the IOD is available. Till then, it is fingers crossed.
|15th APR||RBI net buyer of dollar for 3rd month in a row, snaps up $825 m in February.|
|15th APR||UK fears Brexit could hurt global hunt for new BoE governor.|
|16th APR||BofA-ML sees RBI slashing rates by another 25 bps in June.|
|16th APR||BOJ's Kuroda vows to patiently continue current monetary stimulus.|
|16th APR||ECB to keep policy accommodative until inflation recovers: Villeroy.|
|16th APR||Trump’s Tax Overhaul is curbing housing activity, says Fed Researchers.|
Indian Rupee was drifted lower against a dollar amid uptick in domestic inflation. Brent above $70 is gradually turning headwind for Rupee, which advanced last month backed by surge in foreign flows. So far this month, FIIs sold equities and debt worth $556.52 mln. Positioning in FX and Bonds are light as participants are taking cautious approach ahead of election outcome. On global front, Euro remains lifted despite weak fundamentals. Mitsubishi Financial Group is planning to purchase Aviation Financing business of German’s DZ Bank for $6.3bln. The deal likely to close by June end which is upturning bids in Euro based on flows. Bunch of Chinese economic data this week – growth, activity and spending hinting the downturn in the economy is bottoming-out, rather the PBoC’s stimulus is driving the momentum. The Chinese equities hardly painted optimism as Shanghai’s Composite Index rose by only 0.3% and Hang-Seng was edged down. Next week business survey from Germany and advanced estimates growth number from US will be key to watch. USDINR is likely to stay above 68.80 and move highertowards 69.95 .
USD/INR (APR) contract closed at 69.69 on 16th Apr’ 19. The contract made its high of 69.9825 on 9th Apr’19 and a low of 69.0050 on 11th Apr’ 18 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 69.49
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.99. One can buy at 69.15 for the target of 69.75 with the stop loss of 68.85.
EUR/INR (APR) contract closed at 78.86 on 16th Apr’ 19. The contract made its high of 78.9075 on 9th Apr’19 and a low of 77.9625 on 11th Apr’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 78.56
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.76. One can sell at 78.90 for a target of 78.30 with the stop loss of 79.20.
GBP/INR (APR) contract closed at 91.2650 on 16th Apr’ 19. The contract made its high of 91.60 on 9th Apr’19 and a low of 90.3475 on 11th Apr’18 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 91.19
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.70. One can sell at 91.20 for a target of 90.60 with the stop loss of 91.50.
JPY/INR (APR)contract closed at 62.3675 on 16th Apr’ 19. The contract made its high of 62.8825 on 9th Apr’19 and a low of 62.18 on 11th Apr’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 62.47
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.84. One can sell at 62.40 for a target of 61.80 with the stop loss of 62.70.
Sterling and Wilson files paper for Rs 4,500-cr IPO
Sterling and Wilson, a solar engineering, procurement and construction firm promoted by Shapoorji Pallonji, has filed draft papers with markets regulator Sebi to raise about Rs 4,500 crore through an initial public offer. The IPO will be an offer for sale by the company's chairman Khurshed Yazdi Daruvala and Shapoorji Pallonji and Company, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, Credit Suisse Securities (India), Deutsche Equities India, IIFL Holdings, SBI Capital Markets are the global coordinators and book running lead managers. IndusInd Bank and YES Securities (India) are the book running lead managers to the issue. The shares of Sterling and Wilson are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE. Sterling and Wilson is a global pure-play, end-toend solar EPC solutions provider. The company's order book was Rs 4,309.09 crore as of December 31, 2018. The company has operations in 26 countries, and use its subsidiaries and branch offices globally for operations.
Shriram Properties gets Sebi nod for IPO
Real estate firm Shriram Properties has received market regulator Sebi's go-ahead to float an initial public offering (IPO) through which it plans to raise about Rs 1,250 crore. The firm, which approached the regulator in December 2018 seeking its clearance to launch IPO, obtained Sebi's "observations" on April 9, according to the latest update with the market watchdog. Sebi's observations are necessary for any company to launch public issues such as IPO, follow-on public offer and rights issue. According to draft papers, the IPO comprises fresh issue aggregating up to Rs 250 crore besides an offer for sale of up to 42,403,271 shares by existing shareholders, including Tata Capital Financial Service and TPG Asia, draft papers filed with Sebi showed. The company is looking to consider a pre-IPO placement of up to Rs 100 crore. Funds raised through the issue would be utilised for repayment of certain borrowings availed by the company or its subsidiaries and for general corporate purposes. Axis Capital, Edelweiss Financial Services, JM Financial and Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities will manage the company's public issue.
Polycab India closes with 22% premium at Rs 655 on the listing day
Shares of wires and cables manufacturer Polycab India had a stellar rally on April 16, the first day of trading on exchanges, amid strong market conditions and after healthy subscription. The Rs 1,345-crore public issue saw a massive subscription of 51.96 times during April 5-9, 2019.
Govt aims over 15 bln rupees from IRCTC, IRFC IPOs by Sep-end
The government aims to raise over 15 bln rupees from initial public offerings in railway companies Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp Ltd and Indian Railway Finance Corp Ltd in the first half of the current financial year started April. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs had in April 2017 approved listing five railway companies–IRCON International, Rail Vikas Nigam, IRFC, RITES Ltd, and Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp. Of these, IRCON International and RITES were listed in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar). The government aims to raise 900 bln rupees through divestment in 2019-20, compared with 853 bln rupees raised last year.
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Mutual fund industry adds over 1 crore new folios in FY19
Growing investor interest in mutual funds has led to an addition of over 1.11 crore new folios in the financial year 2018-19, taking the total to an alltime high of 8.24 crore at the end of March 2019. Although the additions were lower than the 1.6 crore investor accounts in FY18 fiscal, it was higher than 67 lakh folios added in FY17 and 59 lakh in FY16. Over the last few years, investor accounts have increased following robust contribution from retail investors, especially from smaller towns and huge inflows in equity schemes. Barring gilt funds and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), all categories registered addition in investor accounts. Folios of investor accounts fell by 1,778 as expectations of tight monetary policy and QE tightening by developed economies led to a lower interest in the gilt category.
Mirae Asset Mutual Fund seeks SEBI nod for midcap fund
Mirae Asset Mutual Fund has sought the Securities and Exchange Board of India's approval to launch Mirae Asset Midcap Fund, an open-ended debt scheme investing in midcap companies. The scheme will invest at least 65 percent of its assets in equity and equity-related securities of midcap companies, while up to 35 percent will be invested in equity and equity-related securities of companies other than midcap. It also has the provision to deploy up to 35 percent of its assets in money market instruments and units of debt and liquid schemes of domestic mutual funds.
Canara Robeco Mutual Fund seeks SEBI nod for overnight debt scheme
Canara Robeco Mutual Fund has sought the Securities and Exchange Board of India's approval to launch Canara Robeco Overnight Fund, an open-ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities, according to the draft offer document on the regulator's website. The scheme will deploy its entire assets in overnight securities, which includes debt and money market instruments with overnight interest rate risk such as debt instruments with residual maturity of a single business day. Overnight securities also include synthetic overnight positions such as reverse repo/triparty repo and other derivative transactions, where the interest rate is reset every business day.
HDFC Mutual Fund has announced merger of a number of options
HDFC Mutual Fund has announced merger of a number of options. Accordingly, HDFC Floating Rate Debt Fund - Retail Option will be merged with HDFC Floating Rate Debt Fund - Wholesale Option. HDFC Liquid Fund – Premium Plan will be merged with HDFC Liquid Fund and HDFC Low Duration Fund - Wholesale Option shall be merged with HDFC Low Duration Fund - Retail Option. Post-merger, the merged options, namely HDFC Floating Rate Debt Fund - Wholesale Option and HDFC Low Duration Fund - Retail Option shall be renamed as HDFC Floating Rate Debt Fund and HDFC Low Duration Fund. The merger shall be effective from close of business hours of May 10, 2019.
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully
Mr. Ajay Garg (CEO & Director, SMC Global Securities Ltd.), Mr. Pranay Aggarwal (Director, Moneywise Finvest Limited) and Mr. Narendra Balasia (Regional Director, SMC Comtrade Ltd.) during Annual Budget Meet held on 12th & 13th April, 2019 at Kolkata Office.
Mr. Pranay Aggarwal (Director, Moneywise Finvest Limited) along with SMC employees during the March month birthday celebration held at SMC Head Office and Daryaganj Branch, New Delhi.
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