In the week gone by, global stock markets witnessed see-saw movements driven by global recession risks, renewed COVID-19 outbreak in China and the war on the edge of Europe enveloping the entire world into an energy crisis. Global market sentiments got soured as US inflation turned out to be worse than expected, boosting bets the Federal Reserve could get more aggressive with its rate tightening. Undoubtedly, the surge in United States consumer price inflation may force Fed to walk on the path of aggressive rate hikes i.e 75 bp at its next monetary policymaking meeting on July 26-27. There is also an expectation that the US central bank could signal equally large hikes later this year, and this may further dent the already wobbly investor outlook across markets. On the Europe Union front, the impending threat of Russia cutting off gas supplies in winter coupled with the slow intervention by the ECB to control inflation, means that the recession in the EU looks imminent. Meanwhile, China has reported that its economy has contracted by 2.6% in the last quarter as compared to the previous quarter at 1.4% as virus shutdowns kept businesses closed and people at home.
Back at home, domestic markets also witnessed volatile movement amid a weak global sentiment on fears of a likely aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. Foreign Institutional investors had sold more than $30 billion, so far this year. However, domestic players have been consistently buying. We may say the Indian stock market has been resting on the shoulders of the retail investors for a while now. The ballooning US inflation data is likely to have a significant cascading impact across emerging market economies such as India, where sustained capital outflows from the capital market have unnerved stock markets and led to a weakening of the domestic currencies. The rupee dropped to a fresh lifetime low against the US dollar further sapped risk appetite. At home, it is expected that inflation will slowly trend down given softening commodity prices especially crude oil Prices. On the data front, India's capex records a growth of 70% in May. Trade deficit hit $26 billion on rising imports; June exports were up 23.52% to $40.13 billion. Market will continue to witness volatile trade amid pessimistic global market sentiments. Investors should remain cautious ahead of crucial economic data from the US and statements from Fed officials.
On the commodity market front, it was an action packed week for commodities in which wild swings were seen on superfast rally in dollar index. In the energy counter, crude made a low of 7272 whereas natural gas recovered from the low. OPEC’s first outlook for 2023 suggests that there will be no relief for squeezed consumers, with more oil needed from the group even though most members are already pumping flat out. At the same time, recession fear and talk of aggressive interest rate hike are keeping it in a band. It may trade in a range of 7200-8200 levels. Bullion counter slipped as Treasury yields and the dollar rose, with bullion's outlook hurt by fears the Federal Reserve could go for a more aggressive interest rate hike this month. Gold and silver will move in a range of 49000-51500 and 52000-56000 levels. Base metals may see sell from the higher side on weaker indication from Chinese economy. Inflation Rate of New Zealand, Employment Change, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate of UK, Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of Canada, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference¸ Inflation Rate of Japan etc are few important data and events scheduled this week, which will give further direction to commodity prices.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
Strong market positioning and brand recognition expected to benefit the company going forward. Company`s drive towards BharatNet is expected to benefit the company to secure more such order as India get ready to implement 5G in business operation. The company expects growth momentum in FMEG segment to continue in FY-23 driven by aggressive market reach expansion, building the right product portfolio across price spectrums, improved brand architecture to drive premiumization and augmented influencer management program. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2498 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/Ex of 35.33x and FY23 EPS of Rs.70.69.
The company is doing well and according to the management, new Business wins and opportunities in pipeline, improved operational performance, Increase in the market share with OE would give good growth to the earnings of the company. The company would be a standout beneficiary of rising demand for the M&HCV segment given the products such as Rear wheel Axles, Brakes, and Suspensions manufactured for the spectrum of load-carrying capacity across M&HCVs for all clients. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2108 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BV of 4.53x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.465.40.
The stock closed at Rs 1343.75 on 15th July, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1143 on 16th May, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 2135 on 14th October, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1422.41
Short term and medium term bias are looking positive for the stock as it has recovered sharply from lower levels. Apart from this, it was formed a “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern on weekly charts and has given the falling trend line breakout of same along with high volumes and also has managed to close near week’s high which indicates buying is aggressive for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1330-1335 levels for the upside target of 1470-1500 levels with SL below 1270 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 1155.45 on 15th July, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1005.50 on 08th March, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs 1293.25 on 17th January, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1110.66
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher high higher lows, bullish in nature. Stock was formed a “Triangle” pattern on weekly charts and has given the breakout of falling trend line along with high volume and also closed above the same so further buying is anticipated from the stock in coming days. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1130-1140 levels for the upside target of 1270-1300 levels with SL below 1060 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Indian markets remained volatile last week and traded in a range bound manner as tug of war between bulls and bears kept Nifty to hover around 16000 levels. Bank nifty also could not manage to trigger any fresh moves and ended the week with loss of around 1%. Bank Nifty ended the week below 35000 levels while Nifty closed above key psychological level of 16000. From the derivative front, put writers were seen adding hefty open interest at 15900 & 16000 strikes while call writers shifted their positions at 16200 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 17.80% while that for put options closed at 18.37%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 18.34%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.16 lower than previous week, which indicates more call writing than put writing during the week. For upcoming week, we expect markets to trade with positive bias as far Nifty holds above 15900 levels. On higher side, a decisive move beyond 16150 levels could trigger fresh round of buying and may take Nifty towards 16350 levels as well.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric (Aug) is expected to trade in the range in coming week due to wellbalanced fundamentals. Last week prices were not able to sustain at higher levels and faced resistance near 8060 levels due to selling pressure at higher levels. We see support at 7700 levels. Currently, reports of good sowing progress in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra is keeping prices in range as export demand is also improving. Sowing is expected to be good this season due to higher prices realized by the farmers last year. The prices have corrected about 32% from 2022 highs despite good export numbers. Turmeric exports in May 2022 is higher 26% y/y at 17,137 tonnes vs 13,600 tonnes while for the period of Jan-May 2022, exports are higher by 5.5% y/y at 67,650 as compared to last year figures of 64050 tonnes.
Jeera (Aug) climbed to 3-month highs last week and closed in green for the fourth consecutive week. The prices are improving on expectation of improving domestic and exports demand. The support is seen at 22050 levels while resistance is at 23500 levels. We expect the prices to trade sideways to lower, if it breaks below 22600. Arrivals in Unjha were pegged at 8,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg), compared with 9,000 bags the previous day. Currently, prices were higher by 65% y/y on lower availability due to lesser jeera production in 2021/22 compared to previous year. As per govt data, jeera exports in May 2022 down by 28% Y/Y at 14,900 tonnes but improve 39% m/m while exports in first 5-months of 2022 down by 48% Y/Y to 68,868 compared to 1.20 lakh tonnes last year.
Dhaniya (Aug) closed higher for the third consecutive week supported by persistent demand from the spices industries while the arrivals had been limited. We see support at 11900 levels while resistance at 12960 levels. Prices have potential to move higher towards 13300, if it breaks the resistance. As per the market sources, the stocks of imported coriander are now a low the demand and prices of domestic coriander have picked up. Since the start of new season, the coriander prices have been higher on lower than expected production. Currently, the prices are higher by 83% y/y due to lower crop estimates. Since April highs, it has corrected about 20% due to lower exports but now recovered about 15% this month on improving demand and diminishing supplies. As per govt data, coriander exports in May 2022 down 4.7% y/y at 3800 tonnes Vs 4000 tonnes last year while for Jan-May exports are lower by 20.4%y/y at 18,900 tonnes Vs 23,750 tonnes.
Gold set for fifth weekly loss as dollar rallied. The greenback’s remarkable performance overall and fears of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes weighed on demand for bullion. Gold has lost 2% (so far) this week. Gold has wilted in the face of a stronger U.S dollar, but appears to be trying to form a temporary base ahead of $1700.00. The dollar edged of recent 20-year highs, easing some pressure on demand for greenback-priced gold among overseas investors, after sending bullion over 2% lower. In the bigger technical picture, gold still looks vulnerable, with risks skewed to the downside. Two of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s most hawkish policymakers said that they favored another 75-basis-point interest rate increase at the central bank’s policy meeting this month not the bigger rate hike traders had raced to price in after a report showed inflation was accelerating. Higher interest rates and bond yields raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged lower, buying gold on the last trading day of the week. Investment demand for gold is weakening, and gold will remain under pressure from expectations of a large Fed Rate hike. Silver, on the other hand, had fallen about 4.9% in what could be its seventh straight weekly loss. On the technical front, COMEX Gold has taken formation of negative structure where price may take support near $1650 with the resistance of $1740. Ahead in the week, MCX Gold may continue to trade with negative pressure where it may take support near 49600 and could face resistance near 51500. Silver may trade with bearish bias where it may take support near 52800 and face resistance near 56800.
Oil prices were down throughout the week, as investors focused on the prospect of a large U.S. rate hike later this month that could stem inflation but at the same time hit oil demand. Both contracts hit lows which were below the Feb. 23 close, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, with Brent reaching its lowest level since Feb. 21. The U.S. Federal Reserve is seen ramping up its battle with 40-year high inflation with a supersized 100 basis-point rate hike this month after a grim inflation report showed price pressures accelerating. The Fed policy meeting is scheduled for July 26-27. The Fed rate hike is expected to follow a similar move by the Bank of Canada, which surprised the market. Oil prices have tumbled in the past two weeks on recession concerns despite a drop in crude and refined products exports from Russia amid Western sanctions and supply disruption in Libya. The dollar index hit a 20- year high, which makes oil purchases more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Worries of COVID-19 curbs in multiple Chinese cities to rein in new cases of a highly infectious subvariant have also kept a lid on oil prices. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to witness selling from higher level where it may take support near 7280 levels and could face resistance near 8200 levels. Higher volatility is expected in the crude oil. Natural gas futures are trading higher as bullish weather forecasts are driving prices higher with a heat wave still blistering much of the country. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade higher where it may take support near 500 and could face resistance near 570 levels.
Base metals may trade in range with negative bias on a stronger dollar and weak demand outlook due to slowing economic growth and imminent rate hikes. Inflation in the United States (the highest since 1981) is seen triggering a jump in rate hike this month, which is expected to slow growth and push up dollar. Economic growth in top metals consumer China slowed sharply in the second quarter, expanding 0.4% year-on-year and missing expectations, as widespread lockdowns to curb record COVID cases hit industrial activity and consumer spending. However sell on rise can be good strategy in base metal as short covering may provide some breather to bulls while rapidly dwindling stocks in London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks may support the prices. LME warehouses held just 696,109 tonnes of registered metal at the end of June, the lowest amount this century. Copper may trade in the range 590-635 levels. China's June copper imports rose 15.5% from a month ago to 537,698 tonnes, as demand picked up following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns that had hurt manufacturing activity. Aluminum may trade in the range of 194-213 levels. Deteriorating demand and robust supplies have triggered aluminium price crash and while further losses are possible, but unlikely to be sustained as squeezed margins prompted smelters to slow ramp ups or cut output. Zinc may trade in the range of 250-275 levels. In the zinc market, just 22,400 tonnes are available on-warrant in LME-registered warehouses, down from around 225,000 tonnes a year ago and near the lowest on record. Lead can move in the range of 163-173 levels.
Cotton (Jul) is facing stiff resistance as sellers entering at higher prices on expectation of improving availability due to higher production and imports during the sowing season. The resistance is seen at 44300 levels while support is at 40300 levels. We expect it to trade sideways to lower towards 40000 levels. In the coming weeks, the weather over the cotton sowing states and sowing data will drive the prices. Price may get support due to weather concerns in US and pest attack in early sown cotton crop in Punjab. There are report of heavy rains in Gujarat and Maharashtra which may affect standing crop of cotton. As on 8th Jul, the Cotton area is at par with last year area at 84.6 lakh ha. In Gujarat, cotton area increases 11.4% at 20.53 lakh ha as compared to 18.43lakhha as on 11th Jul. In its latest monthly report, USDA increased global cotton ending stocks for 2022/23 to 84.26 million bales m/m to Vs 82.77 million due to lower consumption forecast.
Guar seed (Aug) climbed to 3-weeks high last week but it continued to trade under pressure. Prices have already tanked more than 23% since reports of normal monsoon by the weather department. We see support at 5150 and resistance at 5450 levels. We expect it to trade sideways to higher towards 5600, if it sustains above its resistance as heavy rainfall may damage guar crop in Rajasthan. As on 13th Jul, Guar area in Rajasthan is higher by 204% Y/Y at 13.30 lakh ha compared to 4.40 ha last year. We have witnessed correction of almost 25% from the 2022 peak despite good exports numbers. Guar gum exports in May 2022, higher by 44.7%y/y at 37,750 tonnes while exports during Jan-May 2022 is up by 23% y/y at 1.46 lakh tonnes compared 1.19 lakh tonnes last FY. Guargum exports were higher by 36.8% in 2021/22 but down about 20% compared to previous five[1]year average of 4 lt exports.
Castor seed (Aug) traded under pressure last week on reports of lower exports demand from China due to Covid situations. We see support at 7040 levels while resistance at 7600 levels. We expect it to trade in a range of support and resistance due to slow sowing progress and diminishing stocks with the traders. Currently, prices are about 35% higher y/y due to good export demand and lower carryover stocks. On the export front, castor meal exports in May 2022 up by 49.5% y/y to 31,150 tonnes, while overall exports in first 5-months in 2022 also up by 3% at 1.57 lt vs 1.52 lt while castor oil exports in May 2022 were higher by 3.3% y/y at 76300 tonnes despite 43% increase in export prices this season.
Mentha oil (Jul) traded under pressure for the second consecutive week as it faces resistance near 1025 levels due to approaching harvest season. We see support at 990 levels. Going forward, the prices are expected to trade lower towards 950 levels if it sustains below the support levels. Mentha is normally sown around March-April and gets ready for harvest in June-July.
CRUDE OIL MCX (AUG)contract closed at Rs. 7396.00 on 14th Jul 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 9227.00 on 14th Jun’2022 and a low of Rs. 7108.00 on 14th Jul’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 7997.48. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 36.826.
One can sell near Rs. 7600 for a target of Rs. 7200 with the stop loss of 7800.
LEAD MCX (JUL)contract was closed at Rs. 168.45 on 14th Jul’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 185.45 on 06th Jun’2022 and a low of Rs. 166.00 on 14th Jul’2022. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 175.53. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 25.699.
One can buy near Rs. 165 for a target of Rs. 172 with the stop loss of Rs 162.
CASTOR SEED NCDEX (AUG)contract closed at Rs. 7270.00 on 14th Jul’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 7592.00 on 30th Jun’2022 and a low of Rs. 7166.00 on 20th Jun’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 7413.45. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.599.
One can buy near Rs. 7200 for a target of Rs. 7650 with the stop loss of Rs. 6980.
It was an action packed week for commodities in which wild swings were seen on superfast rally in dollar index. In the energy counter, crude made a low of 7272 levels whereas natural gas recovered from low. European natural gas prices gained as traders remained on edge over what to expect when Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline completes maintenance. The pipeline is shut for planned works for ten days, but Germany has voiced concerns that Russia may not fully return the link into service afterwards. Oil extended losses below $100 a barrel as escalating fears about an economic slowdown rippled through global markets. WTI plunged 8% on Tuesday. A more than 9% surge in U.S. consumer prices during the year to June — marking a new fourdecade high in inflation — kept traders cautious as President Joe Biden vowed to continue releasing emergency oil reserves into the market and do everything within his power to lower fuel prices. China’s daily crude oil imports in June dropped to the lowest since July 2018. Base metals prices nosedived on higher dollar index, weaker than expected data from China amid recession fear. Investors were worried about COVID-19 curbs in multiple Chinese cities to rein in the outbreak of a highly infectious subvariant that put base metals prices in check. European Commission reportedly predicted record levels of inflation and slashed its economic growth forecast for 2022 and 2023. Aluminium prices tumbled to their lowest in more than a year on expectations of rising supply from top producer China where smelters have been ramping up output. Bullion counter slipped as Treasury yields and the dollar rose, with bullion's outlook hurt by fears the Federal Reserve could go for a more aggressive interest rate hike this month, after data showed U.S. inflation sky-rocketed in June U.S. annual consumer prices jumped 9.1% in June, the sharpest spike in more than four decades.
Castor saw decline. SEA estimates, India's castor seed crop in 2021-22 at 16.94 lakh tonnes — lower by 62,000 tonnes from last year's estimated output of 17.56 lakh tonnes (lt) so there is a tight balance sheet going forward. Guar prices slipped on normal monsoon. Jeera saw decline from higher side. Currently, prices are higher by 65% y/y on lower availability due to lesser jeera production in 2021/22 compared to previous year. The demand from spices industry expected to improve while the arrivals remain steady. The processors and traders are buying as per their requirements this season due to higher market prices. Sowing gather pace in producing states such as Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
Since Moscow sent troops to Ukraine on Feb. 24, the United States and its allies have been forcing the countries to buy less Russian oil in a bid to punish Moscow for its aggression. These western countries were also continuously pressuring India to stop trade crude from Moscow. But considering the energy security to economic necessity and affordability, at a time when global oil prices have skyrocketed, India has done the opposite as India doesn’t want to repeat the mistakes of the past by abiding with sanctions on Iran, when China continued to buy Iranian oil and India stopped it.
Jump in crude import from Russia
Russia had been also looking for buyers for its Ural crude oil following the outbreak of the conflict with Ukraine and sanctions from the US and European countries, and had offered oil at discounted prices. India, which used to import around 2% of its oil needs from Russia, has ignored the pressure from United States and its allies to not buy crude from Russia and enhanced its imports ever since the war broke out between Russia and Ukraine. The result has been a huge leap in import from Russia. In May, India imported 819,000 barrels per day (bpd), from 277,000 bpd in April and 33,000 bpd a year ago. Russia is now the second biggest supplier to India, replacing Saudi Arabia, while Iraq continues to be the largest.
Share of oil imports from Russia
India is the world’s third largest consumer of oil in the world after the US and China, with imports accounting for about 85% of its energy requirements. It imports 52.7% from Middle Eastern countries, 15% from Africa and 14% from the US. Last year, it purchased 12 million barrels of crude oil from Russia, which is just 2% of its total imports. It is less than its own domestic production. The higher oil intake from Russia raised its share of India's overall imports to 19.8% from 16.4% in May. India's oil imports from Russia surged to a record of around 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. No other country has ramped up its consumption of Russian oil as much.
The increase in imports from Russia comes against the backdrop of the share of oil imports from Iraq. Oil imports from Russia rose 15.5% in June from May, while those from Iraq and Saudi Arabia dropped by 10.5% and 13.5%, respectively, dragging the share of the Middle East to 56.5% from 59.3%, the data showed. Nigeria’s share fell from 8.7% to 6.17%, that of the US dropped from 9% to 5.77%, and the share of Kuwait in total oil imports by India declined from 7.35% to 4.51%.
Benefits to India
The benefits for India are significant. Cheaper Russian oil is reducing losses for state-run Indian refiners selling fuel at lower prices on the domestic market. Urals, the Russian oil mix, was $36 per barrel cheaper than Brent, the international oil benchmark, on average last month. That means India effectively shaved $27.5 million off its oil import bill every day—or $852 million over the month of May. Although the discounts are now shrinking, India continues to import oil from Russia. According to Bloomberg, India's state-owned oil processor, Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum are attempting to secure sixmonth supply contacts for Russian crude to India.
The Indian rupee fell below the psychological barrier of $80 this week in Futures while the spot fell as low as 79.94. A huge shortage of dollars in the interbank plunged the 1-year forward premium towards 2.00% creating chaos in the depreciating run in rupee. The dollar strength came in an anticipation of a 100 bps rate hike by the US Federal Reserve later this month after US CPI data recorded 9.1%, which is the highest level in more than 40 years. What is important now is the RBI monetary policy outcome due out in early August. RBI needs to step in to deliver ultra-hawkish monetary policy by raising at-least 50 bps taking the repo to 5.40% from 4.90%. Admittedly inflation print in Q1 FY23 averaged out around 7.2% compared to RBI's forecast of 7.5% which cast doubt on the ultra-hawkish policy of RBI. Technically the bullish pattern in USDINR will continue and at this point in time technical levels won't work as USDINR trading in uncharted territory on a daily basis. The upshot remains that if RBI fails to bring the appropriate monetary policy in the coming meeting, we may see rupee falling towards 80.80-81.00 in the coming weeks, or else the rupee may find some stability in coming weeks. Meanwhile, on the majors, historic levels of parity are seen in the euro vs the dollar for the first time since 2002 while gbpusd will remain bearish in stronger dollar mode for next week.
USD/INR (JUL)contract closed at 80.1050 on 14-July-22. The contract made its high of 80.1350 on 14-July-22 and a low of 79.3325 on 11-July-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 79.1475.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 76.50.One can buy at 79.60 for the target of 80.60 with the stop loss of 79.10.
GBP/INR (JUL) contract closed at 94.7250 on 14-July-22. The contract made its high of 95.3825 on 11-July-22 and a low of 94.2075 on 12-July-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 95.4436.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.29. One can sell at 95.00 for a target of 94.00 with the stop loss of 95.50.
| 15th JUL | China narrowly misses second-quarter contraction as zero-Covid batters economy |
| 14th JUL | EUR-USD breaks below parity for the first time since 2002 |
| 14th JUL | Senior Fed governor Christopher Waller open to 1 percentage point rate rise |
| 13th JUL | US annual CPI inflation jumps to multi-decade high of 9.1% in June |
| 13th JUL | Germany June final CPI +7.6% vs +7.6% y/y prelim |
| 13th JUL | UK May monthly GDP +0.5% vs 0.0% m/m expected |
| 12th JUL | The annual inflation rate in India edged down to 7.01 % in June of 2022 |
| 12th JUL | Industrial production in India jumped 19.6 % year-on-year in May of 2022 |
| 11th JUL | Investors spooked as China re-introduces lockdowns |
EUR/INR (JUL) contract closed at 80.3275 on 14-July-22. The contract made its high of 80.8775 on 11-July-22 and a low of 79.7900 on 12-July-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 81.5000.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 36.91. One can sell at 80.50 for a target of 79.50 with the stop loss of 81.00.
JPY/INR (JUL) contract closed at 57.6650 on 14-July-22. The contract made its high of 60.0000 on 13- July-22 and a low of 57.4700 on 14-July-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 58.3187.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34.46. One can sell at 58.00 for a target of 57.00 with the stop loss of 58.50.
Realty firm Signature Global (India) Ltd has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise Rs 1,000 crore through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO will comprise a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 750 crore and an Offer for Sale (OFS) of up to Rs 250 crore, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). As a part of the OFS, promoter Sarvpriya Securities and investor International Finance Corporation will sell equity shares worth up to Rs 125 crore each. The company proposes to utilise the net proceeds from the fresh issue towards payment of the debt, inorganic growth through land acquisitions and general corporate purposes. Also, funds will be used to pay the debt of subsidiaries -- Signatureglobal Homes, Signature Infrabuild, Signatureglobal Developers and Sternal Buildcon. Gurugram-based property developer Signature Global is focused on affordable and mid-housing segments with a market share of 19 per cent. As of March 2022, Signature Global had sold 23,453 residential and commercial units within the Delhi-NCR region, out of which 21.478 are residential units with an average selling price of Rs 28.1 lakh per unit. The company's sales have grown at a CAGR of 142.47 per cent from Rs 440.57 crore in fiscal 2021 to Rs 2,590.22 crore in fiscal 2022. Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, ICICI Securities and Axis Capital are the book-running lead managers to the issue.
Packaging solutions provider Mitsu Chem Plast has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise Rs 125 crore through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The IPO is entirely a fresh issue of "equity shares aggregating up to Rs 12,500 lakh," according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). Proceeds from the issue will be used to repay debt, funding the working capital requirements of the company and general corporate purposes. Mitsu Chem Plast is a packaging solutions provider engaged in the business of manufacturing polymer based molded products mainly used for industrial packaging for industries like chemicals, agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, lubricants, food and edible oil. The company's shares will be listed on domestic stock exchanges BSE and NSE. IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd is the sole book running lead manager to the issue.
Tata Motors is planning to list one of its subsidiaries, Tata Technologies, this fiscal. It will be after over 18 years, that India’s primary market will see listing of any Tata Group firm and also the first under the tenure of Tata Group chairman N Chandrasekaran who took over in January 2017. The salt-to-software conglomerate will use the proceeds to expand the business of Tata Technologies. Tata Technologies plans to float an initial public offering on the back of a spate in demand in the electric vehicles segment and a rebound in the aerospace industry. The Tata Motors subsidiary, a global product engineering and digital services company from the Tata group stable, has initiated the IPO process by getting onboard an investment bank to evaluate the float. According to the automaker’s 2022 annual report, Tata Motors holds little more than 74 percent stake in Tata Technologies. Tata Tech focuses on four key verticals - automotive, aerospace, industrial machinery and industrials. It has been growing rapidly on the back of the move to autonomous, connected, electrification and shared (ACES) mobility and accelerated investment in digital as manufacturing companies adapt to meet new and evolving customer needs. Tata Technologies employs 9,300 people across the world, serving clients from facilities in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region. The company has 18 global delivery centres and four business segments: engineering, research, and development (ER&D) services, digital enterprise solutions (DES), education offerings, and value-added reselling and iProducts offerings. For the year ended March 31, 2022, Tata Tech has delivered a revenue of Rs 3529.6 crore, together with an underlying operating profit of Rs 645.6 crore and a profit after tax of Rs 437.0 crore.
Agro-chemical firm GSP Crop Science Pvt Lt is looking to launch a Rs 500-crore IPO (Initial Public Offering) by next year, according to its managing director Bhavesh Shah. The company, which needs funds for expansion of its business operation, plans to soon file a draft red herring prospectus with capital markets regulator Sebi, he said. Established in 1985, Ahmedabad-based GSP Crop Science manufactures technical grade ingredients and formulates insecticides, fungicides and herbicides, intermediates, biopesticides, seed-treatment chemicals and public health products. The company intends to launch new products and set up a new production line at Dahej in Gujarat. The funds raised through initial share sale will be utilised for this, he added. GSP Crop Science whole-time director Tirth Shah said the company's move to launch the IPO is mainly driven by improvement in its financial performance in last few years and expansion plans. The company's revenue has risen year-on-year basis and it stood at Rs 1,350 crore during 2021-22 financial year, up from over Rs 1,000 crore in the previous year, he said. The company expects about 15-20 per cent increase in the annual revenue in the current fiscal, he added. Currently, GSP Crop Science has three units, two in Gujarat and one in Jammu. The fourth one is planned at Dahej. Much of its sales come from Maharasthra, followed by Gujarat and other states.
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Asset management companies added 51 lakh investor accounts in June quarter, taking the total tally to 13.46 crore, on increasing awareness about mutual funds and ease of transactions through digitisation, and experts hope the ongoing financial year to be promising too. In comparison, 93 lakh accounts (or folios in mutual fund parlance) were opened in March quarter, while a staggering 3.2 crore investor accounts were added in the last 12 months, data with the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. According to the data, the number of folios with 43 fund houses rose to 13.46 crore in June 2022 from 12.95 crore in March 2022, registering a gain of 51 lakh during the three-month period. The industry crossed a milestone of 10 crore folios in May 2021. The number of folios under equity, hybrid and solution oriented schemes, wherein the maximum investment is from retail segment, stood at about 10.72 crore as of June quarter 2022, rising nearly 4 per cent from the preceding January-March period.
Quantum Mutual Fund has launched Quantum Nifty 50 ETF Fund of Fund, an open-ended fund of fund scheme that will invest in units of Quantum Nifty 50 ETF. The New Fund Offer opens on July 18 and closes on August 1. Hitendra Parekh will be the Fund Manager for the scheme. He has been managing Quantum Nifty 50 ETF since its inception from July 10, 2008. The scheme will re-open for subscription and redemption on ongoing basis from August 10, 2022. The investment objective of the Scheme is to provide capital appreciation by investing in units of Quantum Nifty 50 ETF - Replicating / Tracking Nifty 50 Index. According to the fund house, the fund combines the efficiency of an ETF with the convenience of an index fund, giving investors the best of both worlds. This fund will invest in units of Quantum Nifty 50 ETF, a passive scheme in the array of Quantum Solutions with a track record of 14 years and counting.
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company has launched the Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Financials ex Bank 30 Index Fund, an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking the total returns of S&P BSE Financials ex Bank 30 Total Return Index. The NFO is open and closes on July 22. The fund will be the first of its kind passive fund that aims to provide exposure to the financial services sector, excluding banks. According to the press release, the index will include top 30 non-banking financial stocks from S&P BSE 250 large, midcap Total Return Index with a maximum stock weight capped at 15%. The index will be rebalanced semi-annually in June and December. Currently, the index includes stocks of Housing finance companies, NBFCs, Exchanges, Asset Management Companies, Insurance, Card Payment & Fintech etc.aunch three new funds, including one this month.
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