Investors remained risk averse in the week gone by over concerns that the continuous rate hikes, Ukraine war and the latest coronavirus lockdowns in China may lead to global economic slowdown. Last week, central banks in US, Britain, Australia and India raised interest rate to curb inflation which is at multi year high. Concerns pertaining to Russia’s invasion further resurfaced global markets after Finland made statement that the country is going to apply for Nato membership "without delay". U.S market fell to its lowest level in over one year as CPI data released during the week did little to lift investors’ confidence. The US CPI data came in at 8.3% in April marginally down from 40 year high of 8.5% toughed in March 2022 but producer prices jumped 11% from April last year, signalling that consumer inflation could continue to stay high. Meanwhile, China's service sector contracted sharply to 36.2 in April from 42.0 in March as the introduction of tighter COVID-19 containment measures led to quicker reductions in activity and new orders.
Back at home Indian rupee hit new low during the week at 77.63 per dollar due to widening current account deficit amidst elevated commodity prices. Foreign funds continue to pull out on surging global inflation and rising prospect of aggressive monetary tightening by Federal Reserve. So far in the current calendar year they have pulled out $19 billion from the Indian stock market fearing inflationary pressure on corporate earnings. Inflation in April came in at 7.79% ahead of RBI target range of 2%- 6% for four consecutive months. On the earning fronts, Indian corporates have reported better than expected earnings so far led by financial and material firms despite high cost continue to weigh on the margins, depicting underlying strength of the Indian economy. Federal Reserve Chair reaffirmed that fed is likely to raise rate by 50bp each at next two meetings and not actively considering 75bp hike. Going forward, market participants would closely monitor the comment/action from the central bank, inflation data and development on geopolitical issues.
On the commodities front, CRB has witnessed a pause in the rally on selling pressure in entire financial market amid sharp upside in dollar index and US treasury yield. The U.S. dollar soared to a two-decade high, with traders seeking out this safe haven amid concerns about global economic growth as well as searching for yield. The war in Ukraine and tighter lockdowns against COVID-19 in Beijing and Shanghai has created uncertainty over economic growth in Europe and Asia. It is giving pressure on base metals prices which is directly connected to the economic growth. Bullions saw sharp fall may consolidate this week. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 48500- 52000 and 56000-62000 respectively. The EU is still haggling over the details of the Russian embargo. The vote needs unanimous support, but it has been delayed as Hungary opposes the ban because it would be too disruptive to its economy. Amid all crude can move in a range of 7600-8600. European Commission Spring Forecasts, Core Inflation Rate and GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estof Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Employment Change of UK, Retail Sales of US, GDP Growth Annualized Prel and Inflation Rate of Japan, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of UK and Canada, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Australia etc are some important drivers for the commodities this week.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company has achieved outstanding operational and financial performance driven by strong growth in Digital Services and Retail segments. Its O2C business has proven its resilience and has demonstrated strong recovery despite volatility in the energy markets as compared to the previous quarter. Retail business activity has normalised with strong growth in key consumption baskets as lockdowns ease across the country. With large capital base across Jio and Retail business, the company continues to pursue growth initiatives in each of businesses with a focus on the India opportunity, thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2934 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/E of 24x and FY23 EPS of Rs.122.25.
The company has entered into new technological licensing agreements over the past few years. It is believed that the entry into new JVs, organic and inorganic expansions, or tie-ups which improve company’s presence in emerging technologies and technologically advanced products, will help the company further enhance its business profile diversification. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.250 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a current P/Bv of 3.99x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.62.54.
The stock closed at Rs 1779.55 on 13th May, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1626 on 30th July, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 2253 on 27th October, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1821.86
Short term and medium term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Apart from this, it is forming a “Descending Triangle” pattern on weekly charts and likely to give the breakout of downward sloping resistance line along with high volumes. Moreover, stock is also forming an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on daily charts which is bullish in nature. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1765-1770 levels for the upside target of 1950-2000 levels with SL below 1690 levels. The
The stock closed at Rs 236.30 on 13th May, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 167.15 on 29th July, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 248.35 on 10th May, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 197.34
As we can on charts stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts sort of “Rising Channel”, which is considered to be bullish. Despite the fall in the broader indices, stock still hold and manages it uptrend and closed with marginal gains along with high volumes, indicates buying is aggressive for the stock. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 230-232 levels for the upside target of 274-280 levels with SL below 210 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Weakness continue in the Indian market as once again ended the week on negative note as heavy sell off in metal, banking and power counter kept Nifty under pressure over the week. Nifty shed more than 3.5% while bank nifty witnessed cut of more than 4% week on week basis. From derivative front call writers seen adding hefty open interest at 16000 & 16100 strike while put writers hold marginal open interest at 15800 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 21.49% while that for put options closed at 22.13. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 24.27%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.01 lower than previous week which indicates more call writing than put writing during the week. From technical front Bank nifty has closed below its 100 days exponential moving average on weekly charts which is not a good sign for index. However Nifty can be seen approaching towards its 100 DEMA on weekly charts which is placed around 15400 levels. We expect markets to remain under pressure in coming week as well on back of continuous capital outflow on every rise. Below 15800 levels we could witness fresh round of selling in Nifty while 16100 levels will likely to act as strong resistance level for the index.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Last week spices counter witnessed recovery from the lower levels as physical buying improving while the arrivals have been normal as per the seasonality. Turmeric (Jun) ended higher last week after 4 weeks of lower closing. We have witnessed lower level buying last week but the trend is still looking negative on the weekly charts. The support is at 8130 while the resistance is at 8750. We expect it to trade sideways to higher if it sustains above 8300 levels. The exports are not improving while the stocks are available with the stockists and traders. Meanwhile sowing of new crop has gathered pace in south India. Turmeric prices have corrected about 8.5% in last one month due to steady demand and sufficient supplies in the physical market. In Feb, turmeric exports were lower by 17% y/y at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
Jeera (Jun) closes higher for the first time in 6-weeks as physical buying improves while the arrivals have been diminishing. We expected to prices to trade sideways to higher if it sustain above 21500 levels. In last one week prices have improved more than 4.5% and higher by 57% y/y on lower crop estimates. Market expects jeera production in 2021/22 sharply lower at 5.0- 6.0 mln bags (1 bag = 55 kg) from 8.0-8.5 mln bags the previous year. As per govt data, jeera exports in Feb 2022 down by 23.6% Y/Y at 14000 tonnes compared to 18300 tonnes while exports for FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb) period is also down by 23% Y/Y at 2.02 lt compared to 2.62 lt last year.
Dhaniya (Jun) closed higher last week after 3 weeks of negative closing. We witnessed prices moving higher in last three sessions and now the resistance at 12300 while the support is seen at 11250 levels. We expect prices to trade sideways to higher towards 12800 if it sustains above the resistance levels. Prices have increased 5.6% in last one week as fresh buying happening in the physical market. The processors and traders are buying as per their requirements as market prices ruling higher by 77.5% y/y and up 34% since January due to lower crop estimates. As per govt data, coriander exports in Feb 2022 up 5.5% y/y at 3320 tonnes compared to 3150 tonnes last year while for FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb) export volume is down by 13.7% at 44,450 tonnes Vs 51,500 tonnes last year but 11% higher compared to 5-year average.
Gold prices on the international market touched a three-month low. The drop in rates came as an elevated dollar held down prices while investors await US monthly inflation data, which might impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and demand for bullion. Price is continuously dropping south as raising odds of a bumper rate hike by the Fed in its June monetary policy are punishing the precious metal. The bright metal extended its losses after establishing below the low at $1,832.07. The selling momentum is expected to drag the gold prices to near the psychological support of $1,800.00. The US administration is outperforming on the economic data front. The upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls, higher-than-expected US CPI, and strong PPI numbers are advocating for the continuation of an aggressive hawkish stance by the Fed. The tight labor market and galloping inflationary pressures have left no other option for the Fed than to step up the interest rates. On the US dollar front, the US dollar index has renewed its 19-year high at 104.93 after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the yearly US PPI at 11%, higher than the forecasts of 10.7%. On technical from Gold on COMEX is trading well below the $1830 levels which hints that more selling can witnessed in near future if prices break and sustain below $1800 levels. The short term resistance for gold holds near $1850. Ahead in the week gold price on MCX may continue to trade with a bearish bias where we may see some bounce from the support and the range would be 48900-51500. Silver may also trade in the range of 56000-60800 with higher volatility.
Oil prices extended gains but were headed for their first weekly loss in three weeks as worries about inflation and China's COVID lockdowns slowing global growth offset concerns about dwindling fuel supplies from Russia. Both benchmark contracts were, however, on track to post declines for the week, with Brent set to drop nearly 3% and WTI nearly 2%. The market is continuing to be pushed and pulled by the prospect of a European Union ban on Russian oil tightening supply and concerns about faltering global demand. An escalation by Russia on the sanctions front is likely to flow into oil price strength. Inflation and aggressive rate rises have driven the U.S. dollar to 20-year highs, which have capped oil price gains as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive when purchased in other currencies. An International Energy Agency report on Thursday highlighted the dueling factors in the market, saying rising oil production in the Middle East and the United States and a slowdown in demand growth are "expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption". Ahead in the week prices continue to witness both side movements and the possible range would be 7780-8400. Natural gas prices roses on a smaller than normal weekly storage builds and a jump in European gas prices on Russian supply concerns. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. EIA. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.96%. Ahead in the week natural gas prices may continue to witness high volatility.
Base metals may trade with negative bias as COVID lockdowns in China, the top metals consumer, war in Ukraine and aggressive interest rate rises were all hurting the outlook for the economy and metals demand. However, lower level buying cannot be denied. Major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have been raising interest rates to tackle soaring inflation, stoking economic slowdown concerns. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank's battle to control inflation would "include some pain" as the impact of higher interest rates is felt, but that the worse outcome would be for prices to continue speeding ahead. Central bankers in Britain and the Euro zone suggested interest rates would increase. China is struggling to contain a wave of COVID-19 by increasing restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing. The yuan fell to its weakest against the dollar since September 2020, making metals costlier in China. Copper may trade in the range 730-765. China's overall vehicle sales for April plunged almost 48% from a year earlier as the lockdowns hit factories and showrooms, but sales of electric vehicles surged and Chinese brands took share from global rivals. China's April copper cathode output fell on both a monthly and annual basis, state-backed research house Antaike said, as maintenance and the COVID-19 outbreak in the country curbed smelters from producing more metal. Nickel may trade in range of 2050-2250 with negative bias. Aluminum may trade in the range of 220-245. Zinc can trade in the range of 295-320 with negative bias. China's refined zinc output at 52 major smelters rose in April from the previous month. Lead can move in the range of 175-187.
Cotton (May) again reached all-time high of 49250 due to persistent domestic demand from the textile industries. Similarly, bullish trend witnessed in International prices due to stronger export demand for US cotton and concerns over supplies from unfavorable weather We now have the support at 46500 while resistance at 49250 and expected to trade positive if it trades above its resistance. The prices have jumped 11.8% in last one month due to continues supply crunch and good domestic demand and higher by 123% y/y. International cotton also in uptrend due to stronger export demand for US cotton and concerns over supplies from unfavorable weather. USDA cut global cotton production by 1.8 million bales from last month, largely due to a drop of 1.0 million bales from India. As per CAI, domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales to 238 lakh bales compared to last year and also cut cotton production forecast by 8 lakh bales in Apr to 335.18 lakh bales compared to 343 lakh bales.
Guar seed (Jun) seen some recovery in prices last week from 8-week low. Now we see good support at 5900 levels while the resistance at 6300 and likely to trade sideways to higher towards 6600 if it sustains above the resistance levels. Prices have corrected about 7.3% in last one month, which bring back the buyers as exports expected to improve in coming weeks. Currently, the prices are higher by about 42% y/y due to lower production, multi-year lower stocks and good export demand. The export of guar gum may support prices as number of operational oil-rigs improving in the US. The US oil rig count is also higher at 557 up by about 213 compared to last year. In Feb 2022, Guar gum exports are higher by 55.6% y/y at 31000 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 (Apr- Feb) are up by 40% y/y at 2.95 lakh tonnes.
Last week, Castor seed (Jun) traded positively last week breaking 7300 resistance. Now the resistance near 7550 levels while support is seen at 7200. It is expected to trade in a range but sustain above resistance may take pries higher towards 8000 levels. Castor seed prices have jumped 25% this year while about 44% higher on year due to lower production estimates. The demand-supply balance sheet remains bullish due to tight supply situation as consumption is around 19-20 lakh tonnes against production and carry stocks at 20-21 lt. As per SEA, castor meal exports are higher by 10% y/y at 32771 tonnes in Mar 2022, while overall exports for FY 2021/22 down about 4.3% to 4.01 lt vs 4.20 lt. Castor oil exports in FY201/22 4.5% at 6.55 lakh tonnes due to 30% increase in export prices this season. Despite higher prices of castor meal and castor oil, the exports have not much affected.
LEAD MCX (MAY)contract closed at Rs. 179.80 on 12th May 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 194.50 on 18th Apr’2022 and a low of Rs. 179.00 on 12th May’2022. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 184.09. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.582.
One can buy near Rs. 177 for a target of Rs. 188 with the stop loss of 172.
ZINC MCX (MAY)contract was closed at Rs. 306.30 on 12th May’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 379.50 on 18th Apr’2022 and a low of Rs. 303.05 on 13th May’2022. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 330.57. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 28.749.
One can sell near Rs. 310 for a target of Rs. 290 with the stop loss of Rs 320.
GUARSEED NCDEX (JUN)contract closed at Rs. 6146.00 on 12th May’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 6800.00 on 07th Apr’2022 and a low of Rs. 6070.00 on 06th May’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6157.00. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.054.
One can buy near Rs. 6100 for a target of Rs. 6450 with the stop loss of Rs. 5925.
CRB has witnessed a pause in the rally on selling pressure in entire financial market amid sharp upside in dollar index and US treasury yield. The U.S. dollar soared to a two-decade high, with traders seeking out this safe haven amid concerns about global economic growth as well as searching for yield. Furthermore, U.S. inflation eased less than expected, keeping the U.S. Federal Reserve on course to tighten monetary policy aggressively. U.S. consumer CPI jumped 8.3% year-on-year in April. The forecasts prepared by Investing.com expected a growth of 8.1%, while a growth of 8.5% was recorded in March. Bullion counter retraced for continuous forth week on sharp upside in dollar index, however, fall was limited in MCX gold as rupee depreciated against INR and hit the record low of 77.63 per dollar. The war in Ukraine and tighter lockdowns against COVID-19 in Beijing and Shanghai have created uncertainty over economic growth in Europe and Asia. Lockdowns in China and worries over aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes this year have weighed on base metals, with copper hitting its lowest in nearly five months this week. Beijing's reluctance to inject economic stimulus to bolster demand would continue to weigh on metals. China's overall vehicle sales for April plunged almost 48% from a year earlier as pandemic-related lockdowns hit factories and showrooms, but sales of electric vehicles surged and Chinese brands took share from global rivals. Oil prices were under pressure, along with global financial markets, on jitters over rising interest rates, the strongest U.S. dollar in two decades, concerns over inflation and possible recession. Prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns in world's top crude importer China have also impacted the market. In US, commercial crude inventories rose last to last week because of a record release of oil from the U.S. strategic reserves, but gasoline stockpiles declined ahead of the peak summer driving demand season, as per EIA. Natural gas was highly volatile saw wild swings between 505.9-642.7. Russian natural gas flows to Europe via Ukraine fell by a quarter. It was the first time exports via Ukraine have been disrupted since the invasion.
Cotton made new record high of 49000 on MCX. The spinners across the country have reduced their buying of cotton after a sharp rise in the prices of cotton and yarn globally. Cotton prices have rallied over 25% past three months as cotton prices are currently ruling at Rs 98,000- 1,00,000 per candy. Castor saw good rebound. The demand-supply balance sheet remains bullish for castor seed as estimated consumption for 2021-2022 is around 19-20 lakh tonnes against production and carry stocks at 20-21 lt, meaning a tight supply situation. Guar counter fell on downside I crude prices.
The ongoing Russian invasion on Ukraine and has resulted in countless miseries globally from rising fuel prices and inflation to food shortages as Russia and Ukraine are two of the largest grain & fuel producers and suppliers in the world. The crises disrupted the supply chain at that time when many countries are already facing food insecurity due to extreme weather events arising out of climate change, and other issues, exacerbated by the pandemic – rising inequality and supply chain problems. The Russian invasion has disrupted shipping in the Black Sea, a major route for grains and other commodities, throttling exports from Ukraine and Russia.
India emerge as a major exporter of wheat
In the absence of Russian and Ukrainian wheat supplies, India emerged as major supplier of food grain as Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, grappling with sanctions, top wheat importer are looking for the first time to purchase the grain from India. In addition, the United Nations' World Food Programme sourced wheat from India to supply to Somalia, Kenya and Djibouti.
India exported a record 1.4 million tonnes of wheat in April. In May, shipments could rise to 1.5 million tonnes. India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, exported a record 7.85 million tonnes of the grain in fiscal 2021-22. Several countries queued up for Indian wheat in recent weeks. Turkey recently placed orders for 50,000 tonnes. A month ago, Egypt, the world’s largest importer of Russian and Ukrainian wheat, approved India as a new supplier looking to import a million tonnes. India has exported wheat to South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa. Exports could jump to 12 million tonnes in the 2022-23 fiscal year, traders said, making it a serious player in global markets.
Factors behind wheat export soar
India's rising wheat exports have helped farmers who are getting a better return of his crop. The wheat export boom has truly been a gold mine for farmers. This is also easing pressure on the country & state's grain procurement agency which racks up huge debts as a buyer of last resort.
The Indian rupee hit a new low this week below 77.50 to a dollar after the US
monthly inflation print for the month of April came slightly better than expected.
Accordingly, US CPI fell to 8.3% in April vs. 8.5% in March although the expectation
was 8.1% and core inflation jumped by 20 bps more than market consensus which
triggered markets to anticipate a more hawkish move from Fed relative to other
central bankers. However, we do think RBI will intervene strongly if the slide
continues below 77.50 vs. the dollar in the coming days.
Apart from this, India’s headline CPI yesterday came quite higher than expected
to 7.79% in April vs. expectations of 7.50%. Inevitably RBI needs to intervene to
combat inflation which we think extending the hike of another 40 bps in the repo
is quite predictable now. Apparently higher rate projection from RBI may give
additional cushion to the rupee as well. On the majors, both the euro & pound
smashed down in the wake of a higher dollar after the US CPI impact. EURUSD fell
sharply towards 1.0355, the new low so far in 2022. We do think EURINR has scope
to fall below 80.00 in the coming days while GBPINR will remain weak to head
below 94.00 soon.
USD/INR (MAY)contract closed at 77.5400 on 12-May-22. The contract made its high of 77.7300 on 12-May-22 and a low of 77.1900 on 10-May-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 76.8784.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.20.One can buy at 77.20 for the target of 78.20 with the stop loss of 76.70.
GBP/INR (MAY) contract closed at 94.7000 on 12-May-22. The contract made its high of 95.9300 on 09-May-22 and a low of 94.4475 on 12-April-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 96.7551.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 22.19. One can sell at 95.00 for a target of 94.00 with the stop loss of 95.50.
| 13th MAY | French Inflation Rate Confirmed at 36-1/2-Year High |
| 12th MAY | India's retail inflation soars to 7.79%, higher than April last year |
| 12th MAY | UK Preliminary GDP expands 0.8% QoQ in Q1 vs. 1.0% expected |
| 12th MAY | UK warns Brussels it has ‘no choice but to act’ on Northern Ireland |
| 11th MAY | US annual CPI inflation falls to 8.3% in April versus 8.1% expected |
| 11th MAY | China April inflation: CPI 2.1% y/y (expected 1.8%) |
| 11th MAY | Former BoE officials warn of increasing risk of UK recession |
| 10th MAY | Biden reinforces support for Fed’s effort to tame inflation |
| 09th MAY | India’s forex reserves dipped below $600 billion for first time since last year May. |
EUR/INR (MAY) contract closed at 80.9625 on 12-May-22. The contract made its high of 82.0800 on 10-May-22 and a low of 80.8750 on 12-May-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 81.8350.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 32.01. One can sell at 81.00 for a target of 80.00 with the stop loss of 81.50.
JPY/INR (MAY) contract closed at 60.3375 on 12-May-22. The contract made its high of 60.4575 on 12- May-22 and a low of 58.9800 on 09-May-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 60.09.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.15. One can buy at 60.00 for a target of 61.00 with the stop loss of 59.50.
India raised 205.6 billion rupees ($2.7 billion) as its biggest ever initial public offering priced at the top of the range following strong demand from local investors and a last-minute dash by foreign funds. Life Insurance Corporation of India shares have been priced at 949 rupees each, the state-run firm said in a prospectus filed Friday. LIC shares were offered at 902 rupees to 949 rupees apiece. Trading on the stock exchange is due to begin May 17. Dubbed India’s “Aramco moment” in reference to Gulf oil giant Saudi Arabian Oil Co.’s $29.4 billion listing in 2019 -- the world’s largest -- the float of LIC has ended up resembling the Aramco IPO not just in scale but in its reliance on domestic investors after some foreign buyers deemed it too expensive. Foreign institutional investors stepped up their bids for the sale in the last hours before the close of subscription this week, shunning currency risks and global market uncertainties. Besides smashing India’s record as the country’s biggest IPO, LIC’s offering is also the world’s fourth-biggest this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. LIC’s debut comes at a time when capital-market activities have significantly slowed globally as the war in Ukraine stokes market volatility and saps investor appetite.
Ethos Ltd, India's luxury and premium watch retail player, has set a price band of Rs 836-878 a share for its initial public offering (IPO) which will open on 18 May for subscription and close on 20 May. The anchor book will open on 17 May. The allotment of shares will be on 26 May and listing on 30 May. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 375 crore and an offer for sale of up to 1.10 million shares by shareholders and promoters. At the upper end of the price band, the total issue size will be Rs 472 crore. Proceeds will be used to repay debt, working capital requirements and opening of stores. Ethos, pomoted by KDDL Ltd, is India’s largest luxury and premium watch retail player delivering a content-led luxury retail experience to its customers through online and physical presence. In addition to its chain of 50 physical retail stores in 17 cities in India in a multi store format, it offers an omnichannel experience through website and social media.
Shares of athleisure footwear company Campus Activewear made a healthy market debut and jumped nearly 30% against the issue price of Rs, 292. The stock listed at Rs.355, registering a premium of 21.57%, against the issue price on the BSE.
Rainbow Children's opened at Rs 506, down 6.6 percent from the issue price of Rs 542 on the BSE and remained under pressure throughout the session. The southbased firm, which operates 14 hospitals with a capacity of 1,500 beds as of December 2021, raised Rs 1,581 crore through its public issue that comprised a fresh issue of Rs 280 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 1,301 crore. The price band for the public issue was Rs 516-542 a share.
Fertiliser company Paradeep Phosphates Ltd will come out with its initial public offering on May 17 and the price band has been fixed at Rs 39-42 per share. Through the Initial Public Offering (IPO), which will conclude on May 19, the government will be offloadng its entire 19.55 per cent stake in the company. The bidding for anchor investors will open on May 13, according to the Red Herring Prospectus (RHP). The initial share sale comprises fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs 1,004 crore and an offer for sale component of 11.85 crore equity shares by promoters and other selling shareholderAs part of the OFS, selling shareholders – Zuari Maroc Phosphates Pvt Ltd (ZMPPL) will offload 60,18,493 equity shares and Government of India will sell up to 11,24,89,000 equity shares. At present, ZMPPL owns 80.45 per cent shareholding in Paradeep Phosphates while the government has 19.55 per cent stake. The firm intends to utilise the proceeds from the fresh issue towards part-financing the acquisition of a Goa facility and repayment and pre-payment of certain of its borrowings.
Pristine Logistics & Infraprojects Ltd has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The initial share-sale comprises fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs 250 crore and an offer for sale of 20,066,269 equity shares by promoters and existing shareholders, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. The company may consider a pre-IPO placement of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 50 crore. If such placement is undertaken, the size of the fresh issue will be reduced. Proceeds from fresh issuance will be used to repay debt and for general corporate purposes. Pristine provides logistics infrastructure and services, pivoted around rail transportation networks. It also offers synergetic logistics infrastructure and services across the spectrum, including non-container, container, rail transportation and road transportation services. It also helps in areas like integrated logistics solutions by offering, warehousing, storage and cargo handling, rail transportation, road transportation, and third-party logistics (3PL) services and identify these services as the company's key revenue streams.
Inox Wind arm Inox Green Energy Services' board on Monday approved a proposal to raise Rs 900 crore through an initial public offer (IPO). The proposed IPO will comprise fresh issuance of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 500 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of equity shares by certain shareholders to the tune of Rs 400 crore, Inox Wind said in a BSE filing. Board of Directors of our Company’s material subsidiary, Inox Green Energy Services Ltd (Earlier known as Inox Wind Infrastructure Services Ltd) (IGESL) in their meeting held today i.e. May 9, 2022, has accorded a fresh approval to the fundraising... by way of an initial public offer," it added. Inox Wind informed that the Board of Directors also accorded its approval to participate in the proposed offer for the sale of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 400 crore.
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Equity mutual funds continued to see positive inflows despite high volatility in the stock market. According to data released by Association of Mutual Funds in India, all equity mutual fund categories saw inflows in the month of April with a total net inflow of Rs 15,890.38 crore. Thematic funds lapped up most of the inflows among equity fund categories, followed by large & mid cap funds. ELSS and Dividend Yield funds saw the lowest inflows. Index funds saw a net inflows of Rs 6,061.86 crore and ETFs other than gold received a whopping Rs 8,662.80 crore in April. Inflows into gold ETFs stood at Rs 1,100.37 crore.
Mutual funds focused on investing in fixed-income securities saw an outflow of Rs 1.2 crore in the March 2022 quarter on massive withdrawal from segments, such as liquid, short duration, and corporate bond funds. This has taken the net outflow from the category to Rs 68,471 crore in 2021-22 compared to the net inflow of Rs 2.3 lakh crore in the preceding financial year. The debt MF category had registered an infusion of Rs 21,277 crore in the December 2021 quarter. Out of the 16 fixed-income or debt fund categories, 15 witnessed net outflows during the quarter ended March 2022. Only the overnight fund segment saw a fund infusion of Rs 7,802 crore during the quarter under review. According to the report, debt funds saw net outflows to the tune of Rs 1.15 lakh crore in March, and Rs 8,274 crore in February, whereas January saw net inflows of Rs 5,087 crore.
Equity schemes registered net inflows of Rs 15,890 crore in April compared to Rs 28,463 crore in March 2022. Thematic or sector funds saw the highest net inflows of Rs 3,843 crore in April. This was primarily on account of the new fund offer of ICICI Prudential Housing Opportunities Fund which collected Rs 3,130 crore. Large and midcap schemes and flexicap schemes saw inflows of Rs 2,049 crore and Rs 1,708 crore, respectively. Small-cap schemes had net inflows of Rs 1,716 crore.
The National Stock Exchange on Wednesday said Assets Under Management (AUM) of all the Exchange Traded Funds and Index Funds tracking Nifty 50 Index have crossed Rs 2 lakh crore. Also, it has been a landmark year for the Indian ETFs industry, as it had registered a record fund inflows of Rs 1.28 lakh crore in 2021-22, according to a release. Nifty 50 index linked ETFs account for 40 per cent share of total AUM of ETFs and Index Funds in India. The first ETF was launched in India in December 2001 and was linked to Nifty 50. The asset base of ETFs surged from Rs 52,368 crore as on March 2017 to Rs 4.99 lakh crore as on March 2022, indicating an annualised growth rate of 57 per cent, as per the release. Also, the number of ETFs climbed from 84 to 228 as on March during the same period. The release said there are 17 ETFs and 19 index funds in India and 7 ETFs trade in the international markets tracking Nifty 50.
Mid-sized fund house DSP Investment Managers has said its investors have gained 19.1 per cent on an annual basis in the past 25 years from its flexi cap fund. Launched late April 1997, the flexi cap fund has an AUM of Rs 7,661 crore as of end March 2022 and is among its flagships funds. The fund as it completes 25 years has a proven portfolio that has been through many market cycles and has delivered returns of 19.1 per cent in compounded annual growth rate) since inception, the fund house said. Rs 1 lakh invested at inception is worth over Rs 78 lakh now, whereas a similar investment in Nifty 500 is only Rs 31.74 lakh, it claimed. The compounded annual return growth of the fund, managed by Atul Bhole and Abhishek Ghosh, over any 10-year period has been a minimum of 6.9 per cent and a maximum of 33.5 per cent.
The capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has barred the launch of mutual fund schemes till at July 1. In a letter to the industry body Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) late last night, Sebi barred new mutual fund schemes till the use of pool accounts are discontinued. The markets watchdog had asked mutual fund houses to ensure that no distributor, online platform, stockbroker or investment advisor pools investors’ money in a bank account and then transfer it to the fund house for purchasing units of schemes for those investors. This is to ensure that the money does not get misused. The regulator asked the mutual fund industry to implement this from April 1, 2022. AMFI had appealed to Sebi late last month for a postponement of the deadline since the broking and distribution industry were still in the middle of implementing the alternative mechanisms. While Sebi gave relief to the MF industry till July 1, it also made it clear in its letter to AMFI that since it had given “sufficient time” to mutual funds to implement its October 2021 order on pool accounts, and “wide consultations were held with all stakeholders, including AMFI, before issuing the circulars dated October 2021”.
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