• Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock market looked cautious as investors weighed I whether a recovery in technology shares could overcome lingering concern about valuations and growing concerns about another round of negotiations on the UK’s departure from the European Union. Actually, market has seen huge run up on hopes for a coronavirus vaccine and central bank infusions of cash into struggling economies. The recent market correction is expected to be short-lived. Going forward, the flush of liquidity injected by global central banks would keep the sentiment of equity investors afloat. Meanwhile, as expected the European Central Bank held interest rates steady and said it expected the euro zone to suffer a smaller recession than it had feared. The ECB said it now expects euro zone GDP to contract 8% this year, a modest improvement on the 8.7% contraction it had projected in June. Economic data from US showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims were worse-than-expected last week. Japan's economy shrank more than initially estimated in the second quarter as capital expenditure took a hit from the coronavirus crisis, highlighting the challenge policymakers’face in averting a deeper recession.

Back at home, the Indian equity market also remained volatile following negative global cues. Bank nifty index came under pressure when the RBI gave more room for banks to further extend loan moratorium by even a year under the one-time restructuring guidelines. Lackluster sentiment in the Indian stock market also weighed on the rupee. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on September 10 stated that there is a need for fresh stimulus, notably investments on health, food and income support for vulnerable households, and support for enterprises because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even ratings agency Crisil forecast a deeper contraction of 9% in this financial year, against 5% projected in May, and called for reforms to get the economy on a faster recovery path as well as fiscal support to vulnerable households and small businesses hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic. The festive season of FY21 has got off to a good start with the 15 days of Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam recording strong double-digit growth of 15-20% over previous season. Carmakers have sold close to 50,000 units in the states of Maharashtra and Kerala during the key festivities in August, which usually attracts higher numbers of bookings and deliveries. Going forward, it is expected that a host of domestic earnings, threat of Covid -19 and other global factors along with domestic factors will continue to dictate the trend of the domestic stock market.

On the commodity market front, it was overall a marginally bearish week for commodities and thus CRB traded in lower band, near 147. Week started on slow mode with holiday in US and the major triggers for rest of the week were ECB meeting, Chinese and US economic releases. Gold and silver should trade in a range of 50500- 52500 and 66000-69000 levels respectively. Base metals may see some recovery this week due to lower level buying. Crude is now trading in lower band and expected to move in the range of 2600-2950 levels. Agri commodities may move up as recent fall may make prices competitive in the international market. Inflation Rate and Core Inflation of UK and Canada, Retail Sales, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and FOMC Economic Projections of US, GDP Growth Rate of Newzeland, Unemployment Rate of Australia, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Core Inflation Rate of Euro area, inflation rate of Japan etc are big events and data scheduled this week which may give significant impact on the prices.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.



  • Reliance Industries struck a deal withAmerican PE firm Silver Lake for another investment of Rs 7,500 crore in in Reliance Retail Ventures Limited (RRVL). The deal is likely to bolster RIL's retail presence in the domestic market.
  • Granules India announced its US subsidiary has received marketing approval from the U.S. Health Regulator (FDA) for Dexmethylphenidate HCI extended-release capsules for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Granules' capsule product is bioequivalent to the reference listed drug (RLD), Focalin™ XR.
  • Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PGCIL) announced the commissioning of the first leg of the 6,000 MW Raigarh-Pugalur high voltage direct current transmission project. PGCIL has commissioned Pole-1 of the Raigarh (Chhattisgarh) to Pugalur (Tamil Nadu) 1,765 Kilometres high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission system comprising 1,500 MW capacity.
  • Yes Bank has fully repaid the Rs 50,000 crore provided by Reserve Bank of India as a special liquidity facility amid the crisis faced by the lender earlier this year. FY21 will be a year of transition for the bank, which has just come out of an unprecedented Rs 10,000 crore bailout led by State Bank of India after setbacks received under the founding team.
  • Hindalco Ltd's upstream plants are operating at near full capacity with all logistics infrastructure coming back on track. The chairman also shared the company's capital expenditure guidance for FY21 with Novelis’ Capex fixed at $450-500mn and Hindalco’s domestic Capex at Rs.1500 crore.
  • Dalmia Bharat is aiming to emerge stronger despite a sluggish market condition, helped by initiatives such as cost reduction, marketing initiatives and premiumisation. Besides, the company expects the cement industry, hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, to rebound amid the government's push towards big infrastructure projects and affordable housing.
Information Technology
  • US-based Treeni Sustainability Solutions on Thursday announced a partnership with Sonata Software, which will enable the Bengaluru-based software services provider to take timely sustainability solutions to its global clients, while Treeni benefits from Sonata’s software product engineering expertise, partner ecosystem and global reach.
Capital Goods
  • Titagarh Wagons Limited has signed a power purchase agreement with Hyderabad-based Fourth Partner Energy to procure 4.8 MW of solar power for its wagon and steelfoundries atTitagarh in West Bengal as well as its passenger coach and propulsion unit at Uttarpara (West Bengal). This will effectively replace nearly 25% of its current annual electricity demand with clean energy. Allthree power plants are expected to be commissioned by January 2021.
  • US producer price index for final demand rose by 0.3 percent in August after climbing by 0.6 percent in July. Economists had expected prices to edge up by 0.2 percent. The slightly stronger than expected price growth came despite a modest pullback in energy prices, which edged down by 0.1 percent in August after spiking by 5.3 percent in July.
  • US initial jobless claims came in at 884,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 846,000 from the 881,000 originally reported forthe previous week. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average fell to 970,750, a decrease of 21,750 from the previous week's revised average of 992,500.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) has left interest rates at their current record-low level as it waits to see the trajectory of the Eurozone’s economic recovery. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.
  • The total value of core machine orders in Japan gained a seasonally adjusted 6.3 percent on month in July - coming in at 751.3 billion yen. That beat expectations for an increase of 1.9 percent following the 7.6 percent decline in June.













Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

CMP: 4379.35
Target Price: 5231
Upside: 19%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 5.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 4754.30/2497.60
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 72808.88
  • EPS (Rs.) 116.93
  • P/E Ratio (times) 37.45
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.64
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.57
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • Dr. Reddy's operates through three key core business segments: a) Global Generics (GG), which includes branded and unbranded prescription medicine as well as over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products. It also includes the biosimilars business; b) Pharmaceutical Services & Active Ingredients (PSAI), which comprises Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and Custom Pharmaceutical Services (CPS); and c) Proprietary Products (PP), focused on dermatology and neurology.
  • The company has successfully completed acquisitions of select business from Wockhardt, and gearing towards reviving these brands back on growth trajectory. It has also executed the licensing deals for 2 key products related to COVID-19 treatment, Avigan or Favipiravir tablets and Remdesivir injections and actively working towards launching these products to cater in various markets.
  • On the Global front, growth has been supported by 88% growth in PSAI, 48% growth in Europe, 9% growth in emerging markets, 6% growth in NAG, with a decline of 10% in India. Sequentially,the sales were impacted due to decline in volumes in global generics business, which was offset with a growth in PSAI business.
  • During this quarter, it has filed 18 formulation products across global markets, including 5 ANDAs in the United States. As of 30th of June 2020, it has 101 cumulative filings pending for approval with the US FDA, including 99 ANDAs and 2 505(b)(2) NDAs. It has also filed 16 drug master files globally, including 1 filing made in the U.S. market. Moreover, it’s also working on few molecules related to COVID-19.
  • Consolidated revenues for the quarter stood at Rs. 4,418 crore, that is $585 million, and grew by 15% on a year-on-year basis and remained flat on a sequential quarter basis. Consolidated gross profit margin forthis quarter has been 56%, with an increase of 430 basis points year-on-year and 450 basis points quarter-on quarter which was driven by favorable forex rate, better product mix and improved productivity. Gross margin forthe global generics and PSAI were at 61.4% and 33.4% forthe quarter.


  • StrictOperational and strategic regulation
  • Currency fluctuation


The company has reported strong results ofthe current quarter in terms of sales growth, improvement in EBITDA margin and healthy cash generation. According to the management of the company, it continues to work towards mitigating the risk through focus on increasing market share, launch of new products and improvement in productivity. In the medium to longterm, management of the company wants to focus on ramping up of biosimilars through internal and partnered assets and building differentiated products in relevant therapies, accompanied by a further ramping up of the base business. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.5231 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on an expected P/E of 34x and FY21 EPS of Rs.153.86.

P/E Chart

CMP: 325.55
Target Price: 370
Upside: 14%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 368.75/239.65
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 15646.48
  • EPS (Rs.) 45.73
  • P/E Ratio (times) 7.12
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.71
  • Dividend Yield (%) 5.10
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • Torrent Power is engaged in the business of generation, transmission and distribution of power and manufactures and sales of Cables. The Company has an aggregate installed generaon capacity of 3,879 MW comprising of 2,730 MW of gas-based capacity, 787 MW of renewable capacity and 362 MW of coal-based capacity.
  • The Company distributes nearly 16.66 billion units to over 3.65 million customers in the cies of Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Surat, Dahej SEZ and Dholera SIR in Gujarat; Bhiwandi, Shil, Mumbra and Kalwa in Maharashtra and Agra in Uttar Pradesh.
  • Torrent Power is widely considered to be the leading power distributor in India and in its licensed areas in Gujarat has the distinction of having the lowest AT&C losses and best reliability indices.
  • Increase in contribution from gas-based power plants including due to operationalisation of long term PPA for 278 MWs capacity from Q2 19-20, partially offset by lower contribution from merchant power sales.
  • Torrent Power posted over 35 per cent (yoy) jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 373.87 crore for June quarter 2020-21. With the reduction in interest cost, mainly due to repayment of loans and reduction in interest rates, was one of the growth drivers during the quarter.
  • Torrent Power attributed the growth in the total comprehensive income for the quarter to multiple factors, including favourable order from the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity in respect of disputed carrying cost recovery pertaining to an earlier years, Increase in contribution from gas based power plants including due to operationalisation of long term PPA for 278 MWs capacity from Q2 2019-20, partially offset by lower contribution from merchant power sales.


  • Risk of regulatory interventions
  • Macro-economic risks such as growth slowdown & uncertainty in demand


The company is reducing its debt with a focus on improvement of efficiency and cash accrual. Moreover, improvement in T&D business, focus on green power project and commissioning of renewable power plants would give good strength to the company. Government’s policy push like emphasis on clean coal technologies, replacing old plants with new super critical plants, policy on automatic transfer of coal linkage, stricter environmental norms and emphasis on digitalization will go a long way in reenergizing the coal based power generation sector. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.370 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/Bv of 1.75x and FY21 BVPS of Rs.211.34.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months



Beat the street - Technical Analysis

Sterlite Technologies Limited (STRTECH)

The stock closed at Rs 149.10 on 11th September 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 58.65 on 13th March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 180 on 23rd September, 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 128.61

As we can see on chart that stock has formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Moreover, stock has given the pattern breakout but its consolidation from past few weeks indicates, there is a strong spurt in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 146-148 levels for the upside target of 170-175 levels with SL below 138.

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited (ZEEL)

The stock closed at Rs 218.10 on 04th September 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 114.00 on 25th March, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 367.25 on 11th September, 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 209.52

Short term and Medium term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts, which is considered to be bullish. Apart from this, it has completed the double bottom around 135 levels and started moving higher. Moreover, the technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are suggesting buying for the stock so one can initiate long in the range of 212-215 levels for the upside target of 240-250 levels with SL below 198.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Some mixed moves were seen in Indian markets in the week gone by as tug of war among bulls and bears kept the market volatile. Although nifty had managed to end the week in green zone, bank nifty, but suffered losses of more than 2% week on week basis. From derivative front, call writers at 11500 strike are still holding with maximum open interest in calls which will act as major hurdle for Nifty in coming week. However any decisive move above 11500 will bring bears on back foot once again and thereon Nifty could surge towards 11650 levels. Technically Bank Nifty is struggling to take support at 22000 levels which would act as major support for the index.The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 18.98% while that for put options closed at 19.43 The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 21.26%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.48 slightly up from the previous week indicating put writing in OTM. In coming week, we expect markets to remain choppy once again. However stock specific action would remain on radar.












Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 10th September, 2020

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering





Turmeric futures (October) has been taking support around 5700 since past two months and been steady on the back of robust export business in this ongoing pandemic as its medicinal properties boosts physical immunity. The increased demand is seen in foreign markets like the USA as well as Europe, and India had emerged as the largest exporter of spices in the world, ready to meet the increased demand. Eyeing this growing export scenario, we can see an upside level of 6200-6300 in days to come. The overall trend of jeera futures is bearish and hence in days to come, it shall witness selling with every short covering. The October contract is expected to witness some more correction towards 13600, facing resistance near 14100. According to the traders, farmers seem to have held back supplies in the view of downtrend in prices. However, market participants see arrivals rising next week onwards as the farmers shall need finance for the sowing that is expected to begin next month. This season the areas under cultivation are expected to rise due to availability of good soil moisture amid good monsoon. Dhaniya futures (October) is expected to trade on a positive note in the range of 6600-6900. Spot coriander prices are steady across the mandis in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Badami variety, in Ramganj mandi, was quoted steady at Rs 5800- 6000 per Quintal. Eagle variety was, also, priced unchanged at Rs 6000-6100 per Quintal. at Rajkot mandi of Gujarat the arrivals have halved to merely 400 bags. Badami variety was quoted at Rs 1120-1200 per 20 Kgs and Eagle variety was priced at Rs 1150-1235 per 20 Kgs. Scooter variety in Rajkot was quoted at Rs 1185-1285 per 20 Kgs.


Bullion counter has posted recovery as the dollar weakened after the European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged and U.S. jobless claims held at high levels, dimming hopes of a quick economic recovery from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The dollar fell due to elevated U.S. jobless claims, making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies, as the euro rose after ECB President Christine Lagarde said while it is keeping a close eye on the exchange rate. The weaker dollar in the very short term and other uncertainties in the long term are keeping the metal supported. The recovery was not happening as quickly as would be, there are concerns about a second wave of virus, commodity markets are indicating that perhaps growth is slowing down and all monetary policy will be easing. The safe-haven metal has risen more than 29% this year on the back of unparalleled stimulus and nearzero interest rates from the global central banks. The U.S. Senate killed a Republican bill that would have provided around $300 billion in new coronavirus aid, as Democrats seeking far more funding prevented it from advancing. Investors now turn their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Sept. 15-16. ECB took a softer stance on the already strong euro and that’s weakening the dollar, in turn helping gold. This week, gold may trade in the range of 49900-54000 and Silver may trade in the range of 63300- 73500. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1880-$2000 and Silver may trade in the range of $22.10-$29.90.


Soybean futures (October) is expected to trade with a downside bias in the range of 3700-3950. The market participants are expecting arrivals pressure in next 15-20 days, as harvesting will be in full swing in Madhya Pradesh. As of now the demand is sluggish as the moisture content in crop is 15-25% which is way higher than standard level of 10-12%. The uptrend of mustard futures (October) is expected to extend till 5500-5600. The revised output figure in the beginning of this month was 69 lakh tons, out of which 52.15 lakh tons of arrivals have hit the spot market in various states and 16.85 lakh tons are still left with farmers. Taking into account the 5.55 lakh tons of opening stock, the above mentioned arrivals & the crushing of 46 lakh tons, the balance of inventories with processors, stockists & NAFED/HAFED is 11.70 lakh tons. Overall, the total balance of crop that is still there are about 28.55 lakh tons. Looking at the steady demand from millers of 8 lakh tons per month amid rising domestic consumption and the next crop being 5-6 months away, there might be a supply crunch in days to come. Soy oil (October) is expected to hover sideways to down in the range of 870-895 and CPO (Sept) may witness another consolidation in the range of 750-780. Looking at the sideways to down price movement of CBOT soy oil along with a lower weekly closing of crude palm oil on BMD due to lower exports and most importantly the rising supplies of soybean in the domestic market, it is probable that the edible oil counters will witness a descending price movement on the domestic bourses.


Crude Oil prices tumbled more than 7% to their lowest level since June amid growing demand concerns as Covid-19 continues to spread. Since WTI plunged into negative territory in April for the first time on record, oil prices have staged a big comeback. WTI jumped nearly 90% in May, and has posted monthly gains ever since. The gains were, of course, on the back of record lows, but prices moved higher as international producer’s scaled back production in an effort to counteract the demand drop-off caused by the pandemic. But in recent sessions prices have begun to trend lower followed Saudi Aramco cutting its official selling prices for October, which triggered new demand concerns. Rising U.S.-China trade tensions, as well as production coming back online has also pressured prices. The market has its eye on the big picture: where and when we see demand normalize globally and what happens with both US production and OPEC+ agreement over the medium term. After inventory data prices rose due to unexpectedly large drops in gasoline and diesel stocks. Crude oil may post some correction where support is seen near $32.80 and resistance is seen near $43.50. For next week, we may witness correction in crude oil, if it breaks and sustains below 2610 where it may take support near 2480 and face resistance near 2980. U.S. natural gas futures plunged on expectations of lower demand due to cooler weather and lower liquefied natural gas. Over the next two weeks, temperatures are not expected to prove hot enough in most regions of the Lower 48, according to NatGasWeather. This week Natural gas may trade in wider range of 155-190.


Cotton futures (Oct) is likely to trade steady in the range of 17400-17800. It is reported that in textiles and apparel, which has been among India’s top 10 export items, the dwindling number of large retailers in the US has left domestic firms heavily dependent on contracts from discount stores and the exacting demands of fashion companies. Also, freight containers have been in short supply because the huge drop in imports has meant fewer containers are arriving at Indian ports. In the international market, COVID-19 remains a central source of uncertainty for the global cotton market. The resurgence of the outbreak in the U.S., along with the rise in daily case rates in several other countries, emphasizes how the world has yet to bring the pandemic under full control. Last week, Chana futures (October) has made a 52-week high at 5245 due to depleting procured stock with Nafed. Moreover, Nafed is distributing Chana through (PMGKAY) and also likely to allocate 3 lakh tonnes for buffer stock. Also, there is news that Madhya Pradesh is preparing to spend Rs 11.6 bln under the price support scheme to procure kharif pulses, such as tur, urad, and moong harvested in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun). Lower level buying can be seen in guar seed futures (Oct) around 3900 eyeing an upside of 4200, and guar gum futures (Oct) may remain stable in the range of 6050-6550. In the present scenario, the stockists are not willing to sell guar seed at lower levels. Manufacturers are also not selling guar gum below Rs. 6200 per quintal. They expect that prices will rise soon due to lower acreage and rise in demand from food, cosmetic and pharma industries.


Base metals may trade with weaker bias as concerns around Brexit, fading hopes of a new U.S. fiscal stimulus, slow U.S. labour market recovery from the coronavirus crisis, geopolitical tension and grim outlook on global economic recovery are boosting risk aversion sentiment, weighing on prices. But declining stocks in LME and recovery of manufacturing activities in major countries may support the prices from lower levels. China’s copper scrap imports are expected to drop around 50% this year, an official from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said. Benchmark treatment charges for copper concentrate next year are likely to fall for a sixth straight year to their lowest since 2011 at about $60 a tonne. Copper can move towards 500 by facing resistance near 530. Zinc may test to 180 with resistance near 195. Decent profits encouraged Chinese smelters to ramp up production, while stocks in the spot market continued to fall as zinc prices declined. China’s August refined zinc output rose 2.8% to 450,000 tonnes from last year, Antaike also said, hitting a record monthly high in nearly five years. Lead can move in the range of 140-152. The discount of lead cash to the LME three-month contract rose to $28.75 a tonne, the highest since November 2018, indicating healthy supplies. Nickel may trade with bearish bias where it can take support near 1060 and resistance near 1130. China’s August refined nickel output rose 15% from a year earlier to 14,260 tonnes, according to Antaike. Aluminum may trade in the range of 141-150 levels. India is planning to raise surveillance of aluminium imports while developing policies to curb shipments from China and other Asian nations to protect domestic producers.





COPPER MCX (SEP) contract closed at Rs. 518.90 on 10th Sep’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 531 on 21st Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 495.50 on 13th Aug’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.519.96. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.724.

One can sell near Rs. 528 for a target of Rs. 510 with the stop loss of Rs. 537

NATURAL GAS MCX (SEP) contract closed at Rs. 173.30 on 10th Sep’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 203.00 on 28th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 131.30 on 26th Jun’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 170.20. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.542.

One can buy near Rs. 165 for a target of Rs. 190 with the stop loss of Rs. 153

JEERA NCDEX (OCT) contract was closed at Rs. 13895.00 on 10th Sep’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 15590.00 on 18th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 13780.00 on 09th Sep’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 13970.50. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.032.

One can buy near Rs. 13900 for a target of Rs. 14400 with the stop loss of Rs 13650.




  • The Governing Council of the ECB took the monetary policy decisions that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.
  • Malaysia's palm oil stocks rose 0.06% to 1.7 million tonnes at the end of August from the previous month, its first monthly increase since April, according to data by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
  • According to Bloomberg, China is going to lay out its 2021-2025 strategy i.e. five-year plan sometime next month to increase its already colossal state reserves of crude, strategic metals and farm goods.
  • MCX has seen an all-time high delivery of silver, nearly 140 tonnes for contracts expiring in August/September
  • China's August refined zinc output rose 2.8% to 450,000 tonnes from last year, hitting a record monthly high in nearly five years as smelters boosted production.
  • A meeting is scheduled on Sept. 17 of the market monitoring panel of OPEC and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+.
  • An initial estimate for the April-July 2020 period showed that around 4,33,000 tonnes of spices valued at Rs.7,760 crore were exported against 3,92,265 tonnes valued at Rs.7,028 crore exported during the same period last year. This is a growth of 10% in terms of both volume and value.


It was overall a marginally bearish week for commodities and thus CRB traded in lower band, near 147 levels. Week started on slow mode with holiday in US and the major triggers for rest of the week were ECB meeting, Chinese and US economic releases. The Brexit fallout between the UK and the EU continued to widen which is helping to buoy safe-haven assets like gold. Both gold and silver closed in green. More specifically, the UK plans to revoke its agreement to keep Northern Ireland aligned with EU customs rules. This is generating volatility in the UK markets and helping to buoy gold prices. Correction in dollar index also supported gold prices on higher side. The drop in the prices of the black gold is triggered on growing concerns about poor energy demand in the world’s largest economy after data revealed U.S. Stockpiles increased in the previous week rather than dropping as anticipated earlier by energy analysts. COVID-19 concerns continue to be on the major headline with hopes for energy demand re-balancing fading as many developing markets which include many parts of Africa, Central America print unimpressive economic data coupled with the rise in COVID-19 caseloads in Europe, U.S, Canada and India. Saudi Arabia is now offering more discount in crude prices also triggered selling pressure in crude futures. Saudi Arabia cut crude prices for October shipments to both Asian and U.S. refining customers. Slowing export demand is starting to weigh upon the US natural gas industry, as the rest the world’s shutters from the recent global downturn. This marks the first time since early in 2020 that the petro state has lowered prices for crude shipments to the U.S. The spot price differentials between local natural gas hubs in the United States and the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana were narrower in the first half this year compared to the same period last year. It was definitely not a good week for base metals and they continuously rolled down on the stamen that if Mr Trump reelected then China may face more restrictions. A sharp drop in stainless steel contracts in Shanghai Futures Exchange also weighed on the metal.Copper prices fell as China's copper cathode output rose 8.1% on month to 810,500 tn. There was hardly any maintenance and due to a rise in copper scrap supply.

Agri commodities saw deeper correction and then rebound from the lower levels. Cotton prices registered fall in North India amid dull mill demand. Weather conditions are beginning to improve in North India and market participants see arrivals rising hereon. It was chana which surprised the market with it sharp bounce back from lower levels as NAFED rejected gram tenders and for the same reason spot prices movedup sharply. Guar also recovered. Total gaur production is expected to around 50-60 lakh bags which will be lower due to limited acreage of the crop.







Spot Prices (% Change)



Retail sales……………the pulse of the economy

Retail sales tracks consumer demand for finished goods by measuring the purchases of durable and non-durable goods over a defined period of time. These goods and services have made it to the end of the supply chain. Retail sales are a good indicator of the pulse of the economy, and its projected path toward expansion or contraction. Retail sales figures are reported by all food service and retail stores and the measurement is typically based on data sampling and used to model the patterns for the entire country

Retail sales are the key catalyst for commodities demand

As a leading macroeconomic indicator, healthy retail sales figures typically elicit positive movements in equity markets as well as commodity market. The US Census Bureau divides retail sales into 13 categories. The largest category is auto and auto parts stores. Since it is such a large component, the Census Bureau report also shows retail sales without auto. A higher retail sale of auto pushes the demand of base metals. In the short term retail-price changes lag commodity-price changes; in the long run they can also drive commodity-price changes.

Retail sales of Euro zone

Euro zone July retail sales much worse than expected. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said retail sales in the euro zone fell 1.3% month-onmonth for a 0.4% year-on-year rise.

Eurostat said sales of food, drinks and cigarettes were flat month-on-month and 1.5% up year-on-year, but sales of non-food products fell 2.9% on the month and were only 0.5% higher on the year. Sales of textiles, clothes and shoes plummeted 10.6% on the month and 25.8% year-on-year.

Retail sales of US

U.S. retail sales rose to $536 billion, according to the Census Bureau. Despite weakness in auto-related sales, that total is still 2.7% above the 2019 result. U.S. consumers increased their month-over-month spending on electronics, appliances and clothing, while sales at auto dealers and sporting goods stores declined, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding sales of cars and gasoline, sales were 1.5%, above the estimate of 0.9%.

Retail sales of China

China's retail sales unexpectedly fell in July from a year ago while the comeback in factory output was slower than forecast amid signs the recovery in the world's second-largest economy remains fragile. Industrial output grew 4.8 per cent in July from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, in line with June's growth and missing analysts forecast for a 5.1 per cent rise. Retail sales dropped 1.1 per cent on year, worse than a predicted 0.1 per cent rise and compared with a 1.8 per cent drop in June. Sales fell for the seventh straight month as consumer demand remained sluggish despite strict coronavirus containment measures easing. China's recovery had been gathering pace after the pandemic paralysed huge swathes of the economy as pent-up demand, government stimulus and surprisingly resilient exports propel a rebound, which analysts say have reduced the urgency for more monetary stimulus. China's economy returned to growth in the second quarter after a deep slump at the start of the year, but unexpected weakness in domestic consumption has strained the recovery momentum.




Currency Table

Market Stance

Indian rupee recorded the highest rise in six months to 72.80 backed by strong capital flows since early August. Apparently we are looking two key risks in rupee uptrend are the sudden Indo-China border clashes as well as Brexit fallout. Firstly any fresh escalation across Indian border will lead to sharp jump in risk premium in USDINR pair in coming days, however strong flows are constantly hitting the spot to cap any major blow in rupee. Next week August monthly inflation due to release on Monday is likely to ease off a bit to 6.80% from 6.93% in July will give some additional cushion in rupee. From the majors, Euro continues to hold its upward trend and get further support from Euro zone Central Bankers. In its latest policy meet, they kept rates unchanged which was widely expected and also not pressed any major concerns over rising euro. Meanwhile Brexit is Back and that may be the biggest driver of forex volatility in coming weeks. Suddenly the financial markets have woken up that the possibility of Brexit transition period ends on 31st December without a deal. At the same time we kept mentioning to remain alert from Brexit front and precisely stated last week about the doubtful rally in pound when Brexit talks around the corner.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (SEP) contract closed at 73.5700 on 10-Sep-20. The contract made its high of 74.0675 on 08-Sep-20 and a low of 73.1400 on 10-Sep-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 74.11.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.57. One can sell at 73.80 for the target of 73.00 with the stop loss of 74.30.

GBP/INR (SEP) contract closed at 95.6625 on 10-Sep-20. The contract made its high of 97.3500 on 07-Sep-20 and a low of 95.2475 on 10-Sep-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 97.30.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34.79. One can sell at 94.75 for a target of 93.75 with the stop loss of 95.35.

News Flows of last week

07th SEP UK warns EU on Brexit: We won't blink first
08th SEP Indian economy projected to contract 11.8% year-on-year, Fitch domestic arm says
08th SEP Global economy seeing sharper V recovery, raising case for inflation - Morgan Stanley
08th SEP Trump again raises idea of decoupling economy from China
09th SEP Fitch switches Brexit view to UK going to WTO terms
09th SEP Bank of England says market infrastructure passed 'COVID test’
09th SEP China factory prices fell at slowest rate in 5 months as recovery continues
10th SEP U.S. weekly jobless claims flattening; labor market recovery showing signs of fatigue

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (SEP) contract closed at 87.1075 on 10-Sep-20. The contract made its high of 87.3775 on 08-Sep-20 and a low of 86.5700 on 10-Sep-20 (Weekly Basis).The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe EUR/INR is currently at 87.59.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.70. One can buy at 87.00 for a target of 87.80 with the stop loss of 86.50.

JPY/INR (SEP) contract closed at 95.6625 on 10-Sep-20. The contract made its high of 97.35 on 07-Sep-20 and a low of 95.2475 on 10-Sep-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 69.86.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.66. One can sell at 69.50 for a target of 68.75 with the stop loss of 70.00.




Zomato plans to file for IPO in 2021 first half

Food delivery firm Zomato, flush with new investor capital and clawing back from the pandemic, plans to go public next year. Zomato, currently valued at $3.5 billion, plans to file for an initial public offering (IPO) in the first half of next year.

ICICI Securities and Nomura-backed Happiest Minds subscribed 151 times

The Rs 702-crore initial public offering of Happiest Minds Technologies has received a stellar response from all investors. The issue was subscribed 150.98 times on the last day of bidding on September 9.

Route Mobile IPO subscribed 4 times on 2nd day of bidding, QIBs fully booked

Mumbai-based cloud-communication platform provider Route Mobile's maiden public offer has been subscribed 4.15 times so far on September 10, the second day of bidding. The IPO has received bids for 5.05 crore equity shares against offer size of over 1.21 crore equity shares, the data available on the exchanges showed. Retail investors' reserved portion got fully subscribed on the first day itself. At the time of writing this copy, it had been subscribed 6.7 times. Noninstitutional investors have put in 203 percent bids against their reserved quota and the portion set aside for qualified institutional buyers has been subscribed 1.25 times. Through the public issue, Route Mobile aims to raise Rs 600 crore which consists of a fresh issue of Rs 240 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 360 crore by promoters - Sandipkumar Gupta and Rajdipkumar Gupta. The company will utilise the proceeds for repayment or prepayment of certain borrowings, acquisitions and other strategic initiatives, purchase of office premises in Mumbai and general corporate purposes. Before the issue opened, Route Mobile raised Rs 180 crore from anchor investors at the higher end of the price band i.e. Rs 350 per share.

BVG India plans IPO; pure-play facility management leader targets up to Rs 1,300 crore

BVG India Ltd, the country’s largest pure-play facility management player, is likely to file a draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with market regulator SEBI this month for a proposed initial public offering. The Bharat Vikas Group company, which is backed by UK private equity major 3i Group, plans to raise between Rs 1,100 crore and Rs 1,300 crore through the proposed listing. Pune-based BVG India competes with the likes of SIS, Quess Corp, Sodexo India and Team Lease Service, and counts Indian Railways, Rashtrapati Bhavan, the Tata Group , Hindustan Unilever and Accenture among its clients.BVG India is an integrated services player and provides total facility management services along with mechanised housekeeping, landscaping and gardening, logistics and transportation, solid waste management, sewage treatment and civil and electrical services. It also provides emergency ambulance services. Its FY20 annual revenues were around Rs 2,000 crores.








Mutual funds managed 3.30 crore SIP accounts as on August 31; inflows fall a tad

Assets under management (AUM) of mutual fund companies that have come through the systematic investment plan (SIP) route touched Rs 3.36 lakh crore in August, an increase of 17 lakh from a month ago.The monthly SIPcontribution inAugustfelltoRs 7,792 crore, marginally down from Rs 7,831 crore a month ago. The data was shared by NS Venkatesh, Chief Executive Officer, Association of Mutual Funds in India in a concall held to discussAMFI monthly numbers. Mutual fund experts say that while in the short-term investors may go a bit slow in terms ofinvestments in SIPs,in the long-run, SIPs willreap good returns.Overall, the 42-player mutualfund industry manages assets under management(AUM) of Rs 27.7 lakh crore inAugust, as against Rs 27.2 lakh crore in July.

BSE STAR MF logs net equity inflow of Rs 667 crore in August

Mutual funds distributor platform BSE StAR MF registered a net inflow of Rs 667 crore in equity schemes in August amidst market volatility, the exchange said on Thursday. The mutual fund (MF) industry witnessed a net withdrawal of Rs 4,000 crore from equity-oriented schemes during the same month. I n July, BSE StAR MF had witnessed net inflow of Rs 653 crore in equity funds, while the MF industry had logged an outflow of Rs 2,480 crore from such funds during the period. Despite the nationwide pandemic and lockdown extension, BSE StAR MF has helped AMCs (asset management companies), members and their clients in smooth paperless transactions, BSE said in a statement. The platform achieved 73.34 lakh transactions last month. With this, its total transactions reached 3.28 crore during the first five months of the current fiscal. The platform registered 3.47 lakh new Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) amounting to Rs 86.6 crore last month. Currently, its total SIP book size stands at over 50 lakh. BSE StAR MF App (StAR MF Mobility) has processed over 8.47 lakh transactions since its launch in May 2019, amounting to Rs 5,990 crore.




Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)





Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 10/09/2020
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 6%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.