n the week gone by, global markets moved in a range on reports that both U.S. and I China are making steady progress over trade negotiations and the statement of Federal Reserve that the central bank has no bias to either tighten or ease policy. Chinese official manufacturing gauge fell unexpectedly in the month of April suggesting the economic stabilisation in the first quarter is fragile. European Central Bank (ECB) officials showed confidence over the region’s economic outlook as the preliminary data showed that euro area economy grew 0.4% in the first quarter, up from 0.2% in the fourth. While the data came better but external trade difficulties, drop in German business confidence and drop in manufacturing in France warn against to overreact to the data.
Back at home, domestic market continued to move higher on the buying spree by the foreign institutional investors. On the data front the Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 51.8 in the month of April indicating that the activity dropped to lowest in eight months. Recently, finance ministry also said that the reasons for decline in growth are tepid increase in fixed investments, muted exports and decline in private consumption. Foreign institutional investors remained net buyers for the third month in April and have pumped nearly Rs 72,000 crore. Sales numbers of Automobile companies failed to pick up in the month of April and auto makers feel the slowdown to continue till September. Investors will continue to wade through corporate results as fourth-quarter earnings season moves into full swing. Trend in global markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will also be monitored. Investors will keep a watch on inflows from foreign and domestic institutional players.
On the commodity market front, corrections deepened in commodities owing to some weaker economic data. CRB saw further fall. Bullion counter may trade with weaker bias amid stronger greenback. Gold can further decline towards 30900 levels while taking resistance near 31600 levels while silver can dip towards 36000 while taking resistance near 37600. Crude oil prices may continue to remain on volatile path as surge in U.S. output and an expected supply increase from producer club OPEC prompted selling pressure while supply disruptions in Venezuela can give support to the prices. Crude oil can take key support near 4200 while its upside will be capped near 4500. In base metal counter, further selling pressure can be seen on weaker data’s. RBA Cash Rate Target, RBNZ Official Cash Rate¸ CPI of China, Mexico and US, New Yuan Loans, GDP of UK, Unemployment Rate of Canada, etc are few important data to be released this week, which may give significant direction to the commodities.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
• According to survey data from IHS Markit showed, India's manufacturing expansion eased to an eight-month low in April, as almost all components except exports weakened. The headline Nikkei/ IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 51.8 in April from 52.6 in March. Any reading above 50 indicates an expansion in the sector.
• Goods and services tax (GST) collection touched a record high in April, exceeding Rs 1 trillion for the third time in four months. The mop-up was 10 per cent higher over the previous year. Gross collection for the month was Rs 1.13 trillion. Despite the recent rate rationalisation in December, a rise in collection was reported.
Oil & Gas
• IOCL has increased price of a subsidised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) 14.2 kg cylinder by 28 paise in New Delhi and 29 paise in Mumbai. The nonsubsidised rates have been increased by Rs 6 per cylinder in both metros.
• Godrej Properties announced the addition of a new project in Chembur, Mumbai, spread across 2.2 acres, this project will offer approximately 33,000 square meters (approximately 0.35 million square feet) of saleable area comprising modern residential apartments of various configurations as well as a luxury retail experience. The site is strategically located on the main Sion-Panvel Road and offers an extremely well developed social and civic infrastructure with multiple schools, hospitals, retail malls, residential, and commercial spaces in close proximity.
DLF has transferred shopping mall in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, to its subsidiary firm for Rs 2,950 crore, as part of efforts to settle dues of its joint venture firm with GIC.
• GMR Infrastructure Limited (GIL) announced execution of resolution plan for its stressed GMR Rajahmundry Energy Limited (GREL) – 768 MW gas-fired power plant in Andhra Pradesh. The company informed that it has paid a portion of the sustainable debt of the project.
• Dr Reddy's Laboratories is recalling 33,958 bottles of Divalproex Sodium Extended-Release tablets, used to treat seizure disorders, from the American market, as per a report by the US health regulator.
• Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) launched an updated version of its compact SUV TUV300 priced at Rs 8.38 lakh (ex-showroom Mumbai). The ‘Bold New TUV300’ features design enhancements and new features like piano black front grille with black chrome inserts, muscular side cladding and a newly designed X-shaped metallic grey spare wheel cover.
• L&T, along with its joint venture partner, BESIX, has finished building a Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) in the United Arab Emirates. The 3,75,000 cubic metres per day STP has come up in Jebel Ali (Phase 2) and is claimed to be the biggest in the UAE. L&T in a statement added that the plant was finished ahead of schedule, maintaining the highest standards of quality and safety
• US factory orders spiked by 1.9 percent in March after falling by a revised 0.3 percent in February. Economists had expected orders to surge up by 1.5 percent compared to the 0.5 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.
• US initial jobless claims came in at 230,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 215,000.
• US consumer confidence jumped to 129.2 in April after falling to 124.2 in March. Economists had expected the index to rise to 127.0.
• Bank of England policymakers unanimously decided to hold the key interest rate and asset purchases unchanged and raised the growth outlook, while reiterating that policymakers would always aim to
|Stocks||*Closing Price||Trend||Date Trend Changed||Rate Trend Changed||SUPPORT||RESISTANCE||Closing S/l|
|S&P BSE SENSEX||38963||UP||08.02.19||36546||36300||35300|
Closing as on 03-05-2019
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
|6/5/2019||ICICI Bank||Quarterly Results, Dividend & Others|
|6/5/2019||Bharti Airtel||Quarterly Results|
|8/5/2019||Titan Company||Quarterly Results, Dividend|
|9/5/2019||Asian Paints||Quarterly Results, Final Dividend|
|9/5/2019||Voltas||Accounts, Final Dividend|
|9/5/2019||HCL Technologies||Accounts, Interim Dividend|
|9/5/2019||Oracle Fin.Serv.||Accounts, Dividend|
|10/5/2019||Larsen & Toubro||Accounts, Dividend, AGM|
|10/5/2019||St Bk of India||Quarterly Results, Dividend|
|13/05/2019||H D F C||Quarterly Results, Final Dividend, AGM|
|13/05/2019||ITC||Quarterly Results, Dividend|
|15/05/2019||Lupin||Accounts, Final Dividend|
|16/05/2019||Bajaj Fin.||Accounts, Dividend|
|16/05/2019||Bajaj Finserv||Accounts, Dividend|
|17/05/2019||Dr Reddy's Labs||Accounts, Dividend|
|17/05/2019||I O C L||Dividend|
|17/05/2019||Bajaj Auto||Dividend, Accounts|
|18/05/2019||Shree Cement||Quarterly Results, Final Dividend|
|20/05/2019||H P C L||Accounts, Final Dividend|
|6/5/2019||Nestle India||230% Interim Dividend|
|7/5/2019||Hexaware Tech.||125% Interim Dividend|
|7/5/2019||Indiabulls Hous.||500% Interim Dividend|
|7/5/2019||Bharti Infra.||75% Second Interim Dividend|
|24/05/2019||Tata Global||250% Final Dividend|
|13/06/2019||Infosys||210% Final Dividend|
GRASIM INDUSTRIES LIMITED
Target Price: 1065
|Face Value (Rs.)||2.00|
|52 Week High/Low||1114.70/688.65|
|M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.)||59111.52|
|P/E Ratio (times)||18.00|
|P/B Ratio (times)||1.06|
|Dividend Yield (%)||0.69|
• Grasim Industries is a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group. Today, it is a leading global player in VSF (viscose staple fibre) and the largest Chlor-Alkali player in India. It is the ultimate holding company of Ultratech Cement and Aditya Birla Capital.
• The company has recently acquired Soktas India at an enterprise value of Rs. 165 crore, which will further strengthen its presence in the premium fabric market. Also, it has inked pact to aquire chlor-alkali business of KPR Industries for a cash consideration of Rs. 253 crore, which is expected to act as an excellent sourcing point for leading aluminium players
• In its Viscose business, it recently launched eco enhanced VSF variant ‘Livaeco’ riding on the tremendous success of its brand Liva. On the back of such new product innovations, viscose business has been registering a double digit growth in the last few years. The business delivered highest ever production in Q3 FY19 at 141 KT, an increase of 11% and the sales volume at 134 KT.
• Caustic soda production and sales were up 9% and 10% respectively to 250 KT each in Q3 FY19 as the demand remained buoyant. The net revenue for the quarter rose by 19% YoY to Rs.1,559 crore and EBITDA by 23% YoY to Rs. 441 crore driven by better realisation and higher sales volume. The company is in the process of implementing the proposed capacity expansion plan from 1,140 KTPA to 1,310 KTPA at multiple locations.
• In Q3 FY19, its revenue swelled to Rs. 18,419 crore, up 22% YoY, while EBITDA jumped 11% to Rs.2,958
crore. It has a total capex plan of approximately Rs. 7,627 crore for raising capacities in both the VSF and Chemical businesses. Its subsidiary, Ultratech reported 108% jump in its Q4FY19 net profit at Rs 1,017.5 crore on the back of better operating performance. It’s revenues were up 18 % at Rs 10,500 crore.
• Commodity price volatility
• Weak consumer demand
Company’s chemical business is witnessing a healthy growth with the completion of its recent capacity expansion. Also, cement demand is witnessing an upward movement with higher spends on infrastructure and the government sponsored housing programme. With recent acquisitions by its subsidiaries and positive economic outlook, it is very well placed to participate in the growth of the economy. We expect the stock to see a price target of Rs. 1065 in 8 to 10 months time frame on the current P/Bx of 1.06 times and FY20E BVPS of 1005.
LIC HOUSING FINANCE LIMITED
Target Price: 560
|Face Value (Rs.)||2.00|
|52 Week High/Low||583.20/387.60|
|M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.)||24481.20|
|P/E Ratio (times)||10.30|
|P/B Ratio (times)||1.55|
• LIC Housing Finance Ltd is one of the largest housing finance companies in India having one of the widest networks of offices across the country and representative offices at Dubai & Kuwait. In addition, the Company also distributes its products through branches of its subsidiary LICHFL Financial Services Ltd.
• The company was selective in disbursements in the current atmosphere. Total disbursement during the December quarter Rs. 12778 crs as against Rs. 12293 crs for the same period in previous year. During the quarter, disbursements in the individual home loan category was Rs. 9170 crore as compared to Rs 8935 crore. The disbursements in developer loan segment was Rs 1238 crore as against Rs 970 crore for Q3 FY18, a growth of 28%.
• Demand continued to remain strong across India. Central, Western and Eastern geography did well. Within Metros, Mumbai, Pune, Hyderabad did well and there was a pick up seen in NCR region.
• Net interest income (NII) was Rs 1042 crores, as against Rs 737 cr for the same period last year. Net Interest Margins (NIM) for the Q3 FY19 stood at 2.33% as against 2.35% for Q2 FY19.
• Net Non-performing asset (NPA) stood at 0.85% as on December 31, 2018 as against 0.49 % as on December 31, 2017. Total provision including general provision on standard loans is Rs 1491 crores as on December 31, 2018 against Gross NPAs of Rs 2290 crores on the same date.
• The Individual loan portfolio stood at Rs 170334 cr as against Rs 149986 cr, a growth of 14%. Developer
loan portfolio stood at Rs 11365 cr as on December 31, 2018 as against Rs 6189 cr as on December 31, 2017, a growth of 84%. Total outstanding portfolio grew at 16% from Rs. 156176 cr to Rs. 181698 cr.
• Interest Rate Risk
• Liquidity risk
The Company has registered improvements on both margins and asset quality; the management of the company is confident of further improvements on all operational areas in coming years. Given the positive push by the government, housing finance is being perceived as the most lucrative sector in the current times, which is elevating the competition within the sector.The company looks forward to maintain this growth journey with a focus on healthy asset quality, cost improvement and better market presence across India.Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 560 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on an expected P/Bvx 1.60 and FY20 (BVPS) of Rs.349.69.
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
The stock closed at Rs 770.30 on 03rd May, 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 514.70 on 21st May 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 783 on 01st April 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 680.84
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows sort of “Rising Wedge” on weekly charts which is considered to be bullish. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggest buying for the stock so one can initiate long in the range of 755-762 levels for the upside target of 810-830 levels with SL below 720.
The stock closed at Rs 664.15 on 03rd May, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 485 on 01st October 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 757.65 on 02nd May 2018. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 614.83
As we can see on charts that stock was consolidated in the wide range of 500 - 650 levels and formed a “Continuation Triangle” on weekly charts which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has given the breakout of pattern and also has managed to close above the same. Apart from this, it has formed a long Marubozu candlestick, which also gives positive outlook for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 655-660 for the upside target of 710-720 levels with SL below 620.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
In the week gone by, Indian markets witnessed a volatile week; a tug of war between bulls and bears kept the index on a roller coaster ride. However, a long rollover to May series has been observed as from derivative front call writers covered their short positions and put writers were actively selling 11700 & 11800 puts which suggest that bulls are more or likely trying to make a comeback. However, the India VIX is constantly maintaining above 21 levels which indicates that volatility is likely to grip the market in coming sessions as well. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 23.09% while that for put options closed at 23.57%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 22.98% and is expected to remain up trending. Among Nifty weekly Call options, the 11800-strike call has the highest open interest of more than 25 lakh shares, and in nifty weekly, put option side 11700-strike has the highest open interest of over 17 lakh shares in open interest respectively. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.22. From technical front, 11500 levels for Nifty while 29500 for bank nifty will be key support levels while on a higher side any decisive move above 11850 in nifty can add further follow up buying into the index. The current trend is likely to remain choppy with continuous volatility on card ahead of political uncertainty over upcoming election results.
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (May) is likely to hover sideways in the range of 6250-6650 levels. Currently, buyers are active in the spot amid supply of new crop. The new turmeric supply in Andhra Pradesh Duggirala market has already started, however, the quantity is on the lower side because the farmers are not getting remunerative prices. Jeera futures (May) is expected to witness sell on rise & see 16700-16500, facing resistance near 17250 levels. Profit booking coupled with appreciation in rupee against dollar denting the export demand may weigh on the counter. Cardamom futures have made a new life time high of 2120.60 on the national bourse & this bullish trend may continue till 3000 levels. This is because of a smaller crop this year and expectations of further fall in production in 2019- 20 (Jul-Jun). Dry temperatures in key growing areas over the past month have led to fears that output in 2019-20 may fall to 10,000-12,000 tn from 15,000 tn in the current season, which is also down 25% from over 20,000 tn in 2017-18. Already, the cardamom price reached an all-time record of ₹3,000 a kg at the Spices Board of India’s auction centre at Puttady. The new produce is expected to arrive in the market by June/July. The total quantity is not expected to increase sharply as drought-hit plants have to be replanted. A newly planted area will provide first yield only after three years. The uptrend of coriander futures (May) has taken a pause since past four weeks, facing resistance near 7400 levels, while on the contrary taking support near 7000 levels. Going ahead, we may see another week of sideways movement within this range amid muted domestic and export demand.
Bullion counter may trade with weaker bias amid stronger greenback as gold plunged to 4-month lows after the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged thereby cooling off the rate-cut bets. Gold can further decline towards 30900 levels while taking resistance near 31600 levels while silver can dip towards 36000 while taking resistance near 37600. On the domestic bourses, strength in local currency is further keeping the prices under pressure. The Federal Reserve announced last week that it is holding the benchmark interest rate steady at a target range of 2.25% to 2.5%, noting that inflation is “running below” its stated target of 2%. The central bank’s statement walked back its March view that the economy had “slowed” from the end of last 2018, noting that recent developments show that economic activity “rose at a solid rate.”According to WGC’s 2019 first Quarter Global Trends Report, worldwide gold demand increased to 1,053 tonnes in the first three months of the year, an increase of 7% compared to the first quarter of 2018.There was a 49% year-over-year increase in demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds. The global investment trend was limited with a 1% drop in worldwide bar and coin demand and an 8% drop in Chinese investment demand. Although global investment demand was relatively tame in the first quarter, central banks were on a buying spree with global official gold purchase totaling 145.5 tonnes in the first quarter, a 68% increase compared to the first quarter of 2018. Central banks bought gold at the fastest pace since the quarter performance since 2013.
The overall trend of soybean futures (May) is negative & hence it may witness sell on rise from 3650 levels to 3520 levels. As 2019 southwest monsoon forecast by India Meteorological Department is near normal, the market participants are expecting a bigger soybean crop this year. Moreover, the Centre has 304,090.1 tn certified soybean seeds, 30,121.5 tn higher than requirement for sowing in the upcoming kharif season beginning June. If the southwest monsoon fares well, then soybean crop is seen higher on year. Another major factor which is adding to the bearishness is the downtrend of Chicago soybean futures which is on on track for a fourth straight weekly loss on expectations of higher U.S. production and slowing demand from top buyer China dragging prices lower. At present, Commodity funds are net sellers of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Soy oil futures (May) is expected to follow the bearish footsteps of soybean & selling pressure may drag the counter to 722 levels, if breaks 733 levels. The supplies are increasing in the spot markets due to imports of refined soybean oil and palmolein from Nepal at zero customs duty under a concession given to the least developed nations in the SAARC region. In addition, the imported soybean oil is being sold at Rs.5,000 per ton cheaper as compared with local soybean oil. The downtrend of CPO futures (May) will prevail as there is possibility that it may test 510-500 levels in days to come. The sentiments have turned pessimistic in the Malaysian markets after the forecast that palm oil output is estimated to rise to 20 million tons in 2019, up from as much as 19.5 million tons predicted earlier.
Crude oil prices may continue to remain on volatile path as surge in U.S. output and an expected supply increase from producer club OPEC prompted selling pressure while supply disruptions in Venezuela can give support to the prices. Rising U.S. oil production has helped offset some of the disruptions from U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Oil prices had previously been supported by the political crisis in Venezuela, the stricter U.S. sanctions against Iran and production cuts from the OPEC. U.S. crude stockpiles rose to their highest since September 2017, jumping by 9.9 million barrels to 470.6 million barrels as production hit a record high of 12.3 mbpd. Crude oil can take key support near 4200 while its upside will be capped near 4500. U.S. crude oil production reached a record 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) last week EIA, rising by around 2 million bpd over the past year. U.S. crude exports broke through 3 million bpd for the first time this year, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Natural gas may remain sideways as it can move in range of 175-190. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that utilities added 123 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to inventories during the week ended April 26. That was the biggest build this early in the injection season, according to EIA data going back to 1994. The extremely short-term weather conditions are mixed, but the near- to mid-term patterns are bearish, which likely means improving storage deficits before the summer heat arrives.
Cotton futures (Apr) is seen to go down further & test 22000-21800 levels. India's cotton imports are likely to rise by 80% this crop year (October 2018 to September 2019), due to short supply of quality material for textile mills. Drought in the major growing & poor quality of late picked crop is poor due to the paucity of moisture in the field, have restricted the spinning mills to procure this soft commodity. Further, the demand side is also dull since the export is estimated to decline to 4.7 million bales in 2018-19, from 6.9 million last year. On the other hand, U.S cotton futuresthe price setter is trading near to its seven-week low weighed down by uncertainty about US-China trade talks, while favourable planting conditions for the natural fibre in major producer Texas. Day’s ahead, the market participants would be keeping a close watch on the outcomes of the U.S-China trade war deal, as the announcement is “possible” by this Friday. Chana futures (May) is expected to witness more correction towards 4250 levels owing to increased selling pressure on the spot markets. Prices of pulses like chana, masur, urad and moong have been falling with increased arrival of the Rabi crop in mandis and the government offloading stock in the open market. Guar seed futures (May) will probably see some consolidation in the range of 4330-4430 levels, while guar gum futures (May) is likely to see some recovery towards 8950-9000 levels, taking support near 8600 levels. Various factors ranging from the onset of the South-West Monsoon likely to be delayed by a week, steady guar seed-guar gum ratio hovering near 1:2 may give cushion to these counters.
In base metal counter, further selling pressure can be seen as U.S. manufacturing activity slowed to a 2- 1/2-year low in April amid a sharp drop in new orders while construction spending unexpectedly fell in March, suggesting economic growth was moderating after surging in the first quarter. China's auto sales fell again in March but the pace of decline was the smallest in seven months. Copper may slip lower towards 415 while its upside is capped near 440. China's refined copper cathodes imports rose to 279,630 tonnes in March, up more than 30% from February. Copper is getting some support after EV maker Tesla expecting a global shortage in copper due to under-investment in the mining sectors. Meanwhile Lead may also take support near 128 levels while taking resistance near 137 levels. Nickel can dip lower towards 810 levels while facing resistance near 870 levels. Aluminium may remain sideways in range of 140-154 levels.LME aluminium inventories surged by 92,350 tonnes to 1,227,650 and have climbed by a fifth over the past week to the highest level since February 25. Zinc may remain under selling pressure as it can test 205 while facing resistance near 225. Zinc prices hit their lowest since mid-March on worries about global demand and as inventories climbed, but other metals were supported by hopes that a US-China trade deal would be agreed. Zinc cash is trading at a premium of $120/ton over the 3 Month contract, the highest since early December last year when it touched $125 a tonne.
NICKEL MCX (MAY) contract closed at Rs. 846.20 on 2nd May’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 932.00 on 4th Jan’19 and a low of Rs. 842.20 on 3rd May’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 877.16.On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 28.784.
One can sell at Rs. 865 for a target of Rs. 825 with the stop loss of Rs. 885.
LEAD MCX (MAY) contract closed at Rs. 131.10 on 3rd Apr’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 143.15 on 29th Mar’19 and a low of Rs. 126.60 on 1st May’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 135.29. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34.387.
One can buy around Rs. 126 for a target of Rs. 134 with the stop loss of Rs. 121.
COCUDAKL NCDEX (MAY) contract was closed at Rs. 2521.00 on 2nd May’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 2535.00 on 2nd May’19 and a low of Rs. 1961.50 on 1st Mar’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 2435.60. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 67.485.
One can sell near Rs. 2530 for a target of Rs. 2400 with the stop loss of Rs 2590.
• Euro zone factory activity contracted for a third month in April, hurt by weak global demand, rising trade protectionism and concerns over Britain's upcoming departure from the European Union.
• Venezuela's state-run PDVSA exported 1.06 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined products last month, an eight percent increase from March.
• Russia's oil production fell to 11.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in April from 11.3 million bpd in March.
• Refined copper imports slowed over February and March but the first-quarter total of 839,000 tonnes was down by only a marginal 1.6 percent on 2018.
• Malaysia has deferred its export duty on crude palm oil until Dec 31 this year.
• The Centre has 304,090.1 tn certified soybean seeds, 30,121.5 tn higher than requirement for sowing in the upcoming kharif season beginning June. No shortage of quality and normal seeds is seen this year
• As on April 30, 2019, NAFED has successfully procured 145740.40 MT of Chana at Minimum Support Price of Rs.4,620.
• The France based agency strategie grains has lowered its forecast for 2019 European Union rapeseed harvest to 18.85 million tonnes in 2019, down from the earlier estimate of 19.32 million tonnes a month ago.
Corrections deepened in commodities owing to some weaker economic data; and investors ignored the fall in dollar index. CRB saw further fall. Dollar index surrendered its previous gain on dovish statement by Powell. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank’s “policy stance is appropriate right now” and that they “don’t see a strong case for moving in either direction.” ETF outflows amid the expectation that U.S. and China may announce a trade deal next Friday also supported risk sentiment and put pressure on the safe-haven gold. Major dip was on Thursday; a day after the Federal Reserve stood pat on monetary policy and indicated that interest rates would likely to remain on hold for an extended period. Silver followed the footsteps of gold and closed the week in negative territory. Crude oil prices fell sharply as stockpiles in the U.S. rose to their highest level since 2017. U.S. crude stockpiles last week rose to their highest since September 2017, jumping by 9.9 million barrels to 470.6 barrels, as production set a record high of 12.3 million barrels per day. Trump statement to increase the output crashed crude prices. Base metals were mostly bearish on weaker data. U.S. manufacturing activity slowed to a 2-1/2-year low in April amid a sharp drop in new orders while construction spending unexpectedly fell in March, suggesting economic growth was moderating after surging in the first quarter. Additionally, investors were closely monitoring developments in the U.S.-China trade front. Oil seeds and edible oil futures saw sharp fall on higher production news from Indonesia and Malaysia. The fundamentals cite that Malaysia's palm oil output is forecast to rise to 20 million tonnes in 2019, up from as much as 19.5 million tonnes forecast earlier. The buying pace of stockists and the millers are sluggish in the current scenario due to surplus imported veg oil stocks at domestic front along with bearish global market keeping the overall sentiments on lower end. There was no respite in chana and its prices fell down on weak spot market trend. Guar seed recovered from the low on lower levels buying. Mentha was facing the resistance of 1400 and from there it saw gradual downside on technical weakness amid poor offtake in physical market. In spices, jeera saw some breather in rally after a continuous nine week remarkable rally fueled by better export demand. Coriander and turmeric also witnessed correction in the prices; it was only cardamom which trade in upper circuits with very thin volume.
The government has set an ambitious food grains target of 291.1 million tonnes for 2019-20, nearly 2.6 per cent more than the previous year’s 283.7 million tonnes, as favorable monsoon is anticipated in the current season.
Agricultural Ministry sources at the National Kharif Campaign conference on 25 April 2019 said that the target fixed for rice is 116 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes more than it was in 2018-19 and wheat production target is set at 100.5 million tonnes that is slightly higher than the previous year’s 100 million tonnes. However, according to the second advance estimates for 2018-19, output of rice is estimated to be 115.6 million tones and that of wheat is 99.12 million tonnes.
The Centre, on the other hand, is hoping to have a considerable 10 % increase in production of pulses at 26.3 million tonnes, as against the target of 24 million tonnes last year. With regard to coarse cereals, the Ministry has maintained its targets for jowar, bajra, small millets and barley at exactly the same level as last year, but hopes to increase the production of maize, projecting a 1.6 million tonnes increase to hit a production of 28.9 million tonnes from both kharif and rabi seasons together. This has pushed up the overall coarse cereal target to 48.3 million tonnes in the coming year as against 46.7 million tonnes in the previous year. Target for maize in the current year is 28.9 million tonnes and that for bajra & jowar are 9.5 million tonnes and 4.9 million tonnes in that order.
Oilseeds output, however are expected to be 36.1 million tonnes (36 million tonnes in 2018-19). So is with cotton, whose tentative target for 2019-20 is 35.75 million bales of 170 kg each, slightly higher than 35.5 million bales in 2018-19. But, as per the 2nd advance estimates, the expected oilseeds production in 2018-19 was 31.5 million tonnes and that of cotton was 30 million bales.
The targeted sugarcane output, on the other hand, is 385.5 million tonnes, almost 30 million tonnes more than the previous year, but just 5 million tonnes more than that was projected in the 2018-19 2nd advance estimates.
Can Double the Farmers’ Income
The latest target is good news in the sense that despite all their problems, the government is sincere to fulfill their promise of doubling of farmers’ income by the year 2022. To fulfill the target, the government is taking all the necessary steps to increase the farm production that directly linked with farmers’ income.
While higher production of food grains and non-food crops like cotton and sugarcane suggest a recovery in agriculture is underway, but record harvests over the last few years have caused a glut in production, leading to a crash in farm prices, leaving farmers in the lurch. The price nosedive to below minimum support price (MSP) while the lack of sufficient procurement center in all over the country has increase the misery of farmers.
|29th APR||RBI's revised guidelines for resolution of stressed assets likely before May 23.|
|29th APR||U.S. Treasury cut borrowing estimate for second quarter|
|30th APR||U.K.'s May and Corbyn hinted that a Brexit deal could be in sight.|
|1st MAY||U.S. factory activity at two-and-half-year low, points to slowing economy|
|1st MAY||U.S. ramped up threats to use force as Venezuela's crisis deepens.|
|2nd MAY||ECB officials expressed confidence in stabilizing economy.|
With decade low FX volatility, Indian Rupee drifted lower against a US Dollar amid sudden spike in oil prices. This week the panic busted to cover forward contracts by Importers when Brent surpassed $75.00. Forward premiums on an annualized basis jumped to 3-month high. Later the forward premiums and Indian Rupee eased off after Oil pulled-back. Trade volumes in USDINR remains low ahead of general election outcome as market participants are refraining to take large positions. On the monetary policy side, FOMC has given well anticipated policy guidance this week to hold the Fed Fund rate in the range of 2.25%-2.50%. Admittedly US GDP posted a bumper jump to 3.2% implied by uptick in net trade, although personal consumption and business investment dipped lower. Later the elevated number likely to revised down over the next quarters. Euro zone posted above inflation print to 1.7% on annualized term in the month of April was largely priced-in due to Easter effects. Monthly payroll and wage growth of US will briefly guide Jay Powell to project rate path. Next week Fed Chair’s speech will give further hint about the degree of dovishness he is currently holding-in.
USDINR is likely to stay below 69.80 and move lower towards 68.90.
USD/INR (APR) contract closed at 69.6150 on 2nd May’ 19. The contract made its high of 70.19 on 30th Apr’19 and a low of 69.56 on 2nd May’ 18 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 69.77
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.96. One can sell at 69.80 for the target of 69.20 with the stop loss of 70.10.
EUR/INR (APR) contract closed at 78.22 on 2nd May’ 19. The contract made its high of 78.7775 on 30th Apr’19 and a low of 78.1725 on 2nd May’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 78.48
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.47. One can sell at 78.10 for a target of 77.50 with the stop loss of 78.40.
GBP/INR (APR) contract closed at 90.9850 on 2nd May’ 19. The contract made its high of 91.4075 on 2nd May’19 and a low of 90.7850 on 30th Apr’18 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 90.94
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.08. One can sell at 90.90 for a target of 90.30 with the stop loss of 91.20.
JPY/INR (APR) contract closed at 62.5625 on 2nd May’ 19. The contract made its high of 63.1675 on 30th Apr’19 and a low of 62.5225 on 2nd May’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 62.62
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.11. One can sell at 62.80 for a target of 62.20 with the stop loss of 63.10.
Sterling and Wilson files paper for Rs 4,500-cr IPO
Sterling and Wilson, a solar engineering, procurement and construction firm promoted by Shapoorji Pallonji and Company has filed draft papers with markets regulator Sebi to raise about Rs 4,500 crore through an initial public offer. The IPO will be an offer for sale by the company's chairman Khurshed Yazdi Daruvala and Shapoorji Pallonji and Company, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, Credit Suisse Securities (India), Deutsche Equities India, IIFL Holdings, SBI Capital Markets are the global coordinators and book running lead managers. IndusInd Bank and YES Securities (India) are the book running lead managers to the issue. The shares of Sterling and Wilson are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE. Sterling and Wilson is a global pureplay, end-to-end solar EPC solutions provider. The company's order book was Rs 4,309.09 crore as of December 31, 2018. The company has operations in 26 countries, and use its subsidiaries and branch offices globally for operations.
Shriram Properties gets Sebi nod for IPO
Real estate firm Shriram Properties has received market regulator Sebi's go-ahead to float an initial public offering (IPO) through which it plans to raise about Rs 1,250 crore. The firm, which approached the regulator in December 2018 seeking its clearance to launch IPO, obtained Sebi's "observations" on April 9, according to the latest update with the market watchdog. Sebi's observations are necessary for any company to launch public issues such as IPO, follow-on public offer and rights issue. According to draft papers, the IPO comprises fresh issue aggregating up to Rs 250 crore besides an offer for sale of up to 42,403,271 shares by existing shareholders, including Tata Capital Financial Service and TPG Asia, draft papers filed with Sebi showed. The company is looking to consider a pre-IPO placement of up to Rs 100 crore. Funds raised through the issue would be utilised for repayment of certain borrowings availed by the company or its subsidiaries and for general corporate purposes. Axis Capital, Edelweiss Financial Services, JM Financial and Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities will manage the company's public issue.
* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.
* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.
* Email us at email@example.com
BSE StARMF executes 42.6 lakh transactions in April
The Bombay Stock Exchange’s online mutual Fund platform-BSE StARMF has executed 42.6 lakh transactions in April, according to a press release from Asia's oldest exchange. According to estimates, BSE StARMF now accounts for 20 percent of all MF transactions and 40 percent of all new subscribers to MF industry. The BSE had launched its BSE StAR MF platform on December 4, 2009.
IL&FS Mutual Fund makes on-time redemption; pays Rs 314 cr to debt fund investors
IL&FS Mutual Fund paid Rs 314 crore to investors in one of its infrastructure debt fund, making on-time redemption, according to a release. The money was paid to investors in IL&FS Mutual Fund's first debt fund series -- IL&FS Infrastructure Debt Fund Series 1-A (IDF Scheme A) -- that is due April 30. The five-year close-ended scheme was fully funded in April 2014 and had raised Rs 238 crore in assets under management. "The scheme redeemed Rs 314 crore to the investors, which was paid out today," IL&FS Infra Asset Management Ltd said in the release. The scheme is one of the eight schemes in the portfolio. The remaining schemes have varying maturities, ranging from 2 to 12 years, with final maturity in 2031-32. Two funds in the same series -- IL&FS Infrastructure Debt Fund Series 1B and IL&FS Infrastructure Debt Fund Series 1C -- have maturities of 7 years (2021) and 10 years (2024), respectively, the release said.
Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund seeks SEBI nod for banking ETF
Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has sought the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s approval to launch Aditya Birla Sun Life Banking ETF, according to the draft offer document on the market regulator’s website. The open-ended exchange traded fund (ETF) tracking the Nifty Bank will deploy at least 95 percent of its assets in stocks comprising the index, with the balance allocated to debt and money market instruments. The units of the scheme will be compulsorily traded in dematerialised form, and hence there will be no entry/exit load for units purchased or sold through stock exchanges, as per the draft offer document.
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully
Mr. Mahesh C Gupta (Co-Founder, Vice CMD, SMC Group) and Mr. D K Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Investments & Senior VP – PHD Chamber of Commerce) receiving the award “Broking House of The Year for Non Agricultural Commodities” conferred upon SMC Comtrade Ltd. during MCX Awards 2019 held on Friday, 26th April, 2019 at Hotel The Leela, Mumbai. The award was presented by Mr. Mrugank Paranjape (MD & CEO, MCX) accompanied by other dignitaries.
Mr. S C Aggarwal (Co-Founder, CMD, SMC Group) during Earth Day Celebration held on Monday, 22nd April, 2019 at Vishwa Bharati Public School, Sector 28, Noida.
Comprehensive Investment Solutions
Independent & Objective Advise
Call Toll-Free 180011 0909
11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005. Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365
Lotus Corporate Park, A Wing 401 / 402 , 4th Floor , Graham Firth Steel Compound, Off Western Express Highway, Jay Coach Signal, Goreagon (East) Mumbai - 400063
Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-67341697
18, Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4,5th Floor, Kolkata-700001 Tel.: 033 6612 7000/033 4058 7000, Fax: 033 6612 7004/033 4058 7004
AHMEDABAD OFFICE :
10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market, C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat
Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03
Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road, Chetpet, Chennai - 600031.
Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111
315, 4th Floor Above CMR Exclusive, BhuvanaTower, S D Road, Secunderabad, Telangana-500003
Tel : 040-30031007/8/9
2404, 1 Lake Plaza Tower, Cluster T, Jumeriah Lake Towers, PO Box 117210, Dubai, UAE
Tel: 97145139780 Fax : 97145139781
Email ID : firstname.lastname@example.org
Printed and Published on behalf of
Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address
11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005
Investor Grievance : email@example.com
Printed at: S&S MARKETING
102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India) Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 43035014, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org