• Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by global markets looked perplexed after a rise in weekly jobless I claims compounded worries about a stalling economic recovery and fading hopes for more fiscal aid before the U. S election. At present market participants fear that resurgence in coronavirus cases across the globe and a lack of additional U.S. fiscal stimulus would hobble the world economy. In the European Union, signs of a delay in a vaccine and surging coronavirus cases stoked fears of more sweeping lockdowns across the countries weakened the sentiments of the market participants. Meanwhile, the Chinese central bank’s statistics department pushed back against the idea that the pace of debt increase in the third quarter was “rapid” and said it was still “reasonable. The People’s Bank of China has disclosed data for the first three quarters of the year that showed steady loan growth. Tensions between Beijing and Washington remain in view after the US State Department submitted a proposal for the Trump administration to add China's Ant Group to a trade blacklist. Meanwhile, the United States is pressing allies to bar Huawei from next generation 5G networks on security grounds. However, Japan is not joining US plan to exclude Chinese firms from telecom networks.

Back at home domestic markets moved with the cautious sentiment prevailing around the global markets. As we are in the earning season, the major IT companies have announced their financials and have shown a kind optimism in their businesses going forward. The economy has lost millions of jobs this year. But in many industries such as IT, hiring is booming. It means basically cloud-computing companies that help businesses digitize and financial-services firms are also ramping up fourth-quarter hiring. Indeed this is a positive sign. According to the recent sales data Tractor has seen double digit sales growth since July, with September retails up 80% year-on-year. As a result, companies are ramping up production capacity hoping that that this sales spike will continue beyond the festival and harvest season. Meanwhile, the government has expanded its market borrowing plan for the second time this year by Rs 1.3 lakh crore. India's exports increased 5.99 percent year-on-year to $27.58 billion in September. The country's imports declined 19.6 percent to $30.31 billion in September. The trade deficit in September was $2.72 billion, compared to $11.67 billion in the year-ago month. Going forward, market will continue to track the global as well as domestic factors for its direction. Stock specific movement will continue to remain in the market as we are in the result session.

On the commodity market front, the week gone by was full of uncertainty and thus CRB closed in a tight range as the direction was not clear. Gold may continue to witness choppy trade until there is more clarity on US stimulus. However, we maintain buy on dips view as concerns about health of US economy may keep check on US dollar while increasing virus risks may increase safe haven appeal for the metal and it should trade in a range of 49500-52200 whereas silver may trade volatile in a wide range of 59000-64500. Despite rising numbers crude prices saw jump and likely to stay in the range of 2850-3150. Many strong storms in US disturbed the supply whereas demand is remain muted. Base metals may see some jump in the prices, if dollar index remains below 94 levels and Chinese GDP improve further which is scheduled this week. GDP Growth Rate of China, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of UK and Canada, Inflation Rate of Newzeland and Japan, Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash of US are few data scheduled this week.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.



  • India's industrial production continued to fall in August but the pace decline slowed due to the gradual relaxation of the corona virus containment measures. Industrial output dropped 8 percent on a yearly basis. Output was forecast to decrease 7.5 percent after easing 10.8 percent in July.
  • India's wholesale prices rose for the second straight month in September. The wholesale price index rose 1.32 percent year-on-year in September, following a 0.16 percent increase in August. India's consumer price inflation accelerated more than expected in September. The consumer price index rose 7.34 percent year-on-year following a 6.69 percent increase in August.
  • Alembic Pharmaceuticals has received approval from the USFDA for its ANDA Amantadine Hydrochloride Tablets, 100 mg. The approved ANDA is therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug product (RLD), SymmetrelTablets, 100 mg, of Endo Pharmaceuticals,Inc.(Endo):Amantadine Hydrochloride Tablets are indicated forthe prophylaxis and treatment of signs and symptoms ofinfection caused by various strains ofinfluenzaAvirus.
  • Glenmark Pharma has announced the launch of its generic version of Nintedanib (NINDANIB), used forthe treatment of pulmonary fibrosis,in India.
  • Tata Power announced that as part of the growth strategy, the company has taken several steps to deleverage the balance sheet and improve the capital structure including creation of an InVIT for its renewables business.
  • Mahindra Logistics has added 10,100 seasonal jobs ahead of the festive season and will retain a significant number of these employees. The logistics arm of the Mahindra Group claims to have trained about 20,000 personnel including drivers and warehouse operators in the last two years under the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY).
  • Hindustan Zinc has signed a pact with Gujarat government to set up a greenfield zinc smelter in the state. The project will entail an investment of up to Rs 10,000 crore
Information Technology
  • Persistent Systems will acquire Palo Alto-based Capiot. Under the deal, Persistent Systems Ltd India (PSL) will acquire 100 per cent shares of Capiot Software - the Indian subsidiary of Capiot Software Inc and consequently, Capiot India will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of PSL.
Realty/ Construction
  • Godrej Properties has bought a 15-acre land parcel in Sarjapur area of Bengaluru. Godrej plans to build residential apartments and the project will have an area of 1.6 million sq ft. For Godrej Properties, Bengaluru is a focused city and the developer already has residential projects here.
  • US import prices rose by 0.3 percent in September after jumping by an upwardly revised 1.0 percent in August. Economists had expected import prices to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.9 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
  • US jobless claims climbed to 898,000, an increase of 53,000 from the previous week's revised level of 845,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 825,000 from the 840,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.4 percent in September after rising by 0.3 percent in August. Economists had expected prices to edge up by 0.2 percent.
  • US consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in September after climbing by 0.4 percent in August. Prices for used cars and trucks spiked by 6.7 percent, accounting for most of the monthly increase by the headline index.
  • China’s Consumer prices advanced 1.7 percent on a yearly basis in September, slower than the 2.4 percent increase seen in August. This was also slower than the economists' forecast of 1.8 percent.













Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

CMP: 478.25
Target Price: 555
Upside: 16%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 591.75/214.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 44073.21
  • EPS (Rs.) 8.05
  • P/E Ratio (times) 59.41
  • P/B Ratio (times) 3.20
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.56
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • Tata Consumer Products, a subsidiary of the Tata Group, is a consumer products company. The company's portfolio of products includes tea, coffee, water, salt, pulses, spices, and ready-to-cook offerings. It is the world's secondlargest manufacturer and distributor of tea and a major producer of coffee.
  • During Q1FY21, in the branded business segment, India Beverages revenue was at Rs 1,000 crore (up 11% YoY), India Foods revenue was at Rs 589 (up 19% YoY) and International Beverages revenue was at Rs 867 crore (up 15% YoY) while non-branded business revenue rose 9% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis to Rs 264 during the quarter.
  • According to the management, the company along with its subsidiaries and affiliates continues to manufacture and supply essential food and beverage items in domestic and international markets in the current COVID-19 environment. The demand for the food and beverage products for in home consumption was buoyant, whereas segments in out of home consumption were adversely impacted.
  • On the development front, Tata Consumer Products has acquired the entire stake of PepsiCo in NourishCo (50%), consequently terminating the joint-venture and making NourishCo a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company as well as transfer of rights over the 'Gluco Plus / Gluco+' brand from PepsiCo. This move is consistent with the company's focus on widening its portfolio in the food and beverages space and the above acquisition would be providing an established platform to the company for further expansion in the ready-to-drink beverage segment.
  • During Q1FY21, EBITDA increased by 37% to Rs 486 crore in the June quarter (from Rs 354 crore reported in the corresponding period last year) as a result of higher sales, gross margin improvement and rationalization of discretionary expenditure. EBITDA margin stood at 17.9% as on 30 June 2020 as against 14.8% as on 30 June 2019.


  • Economicrisk
  • Highly competitive


The company has recorded good revenue and profit growth in Q1FY21 due to increased demand in some categories, strong marketing campaigns and adopting new routes to reach the end consumer effectively. According to the management, the integration of foods and beverages businesses in India is progressing well and would unlock significant synergy benefits. In its international markets, the company is investing behind its core brands and driving innovations in the tea and coffee segment. Moreover, the company is also strengthening key processes across the organization to scale up capability and build a future ready organization. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.555 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on an expected P/BV of 3.40x and FY21 BVPS of Rs.163.22.

P/E Chart

CMP: 778.45
Target Price: 919
Upside: 18%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 883.30/456.50
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 18355.79
  • EPS (Rs.) 22.36
  • P/E Ratio (times) 34.81
  • P/B Ratio (times) 3.67
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.13
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • The Ramco Cements Limited, formerly Madras Cements Limited, manufactures cement,ready-mix concrete and dry mortar products, with an installed capacity of 18.79mtpa. It is also engaged in the sale of surplus electricity generated from its windmills and thermal powerplants.
  • The company is undertaking capacity expansion plan of Rs. 3,500 crore (recently commissioned 1 mtpa grinding unit at Odisha), which would increase its cement capacity from 18.79 mtpa to 20.79 mtpa. The company’s ongoing capex programme had been delayed due to COVID-19.
  • Recently, it has commenced operations at its new cement grinding unit in Odisha, set up at a cost of about Rs 710 crore. It was decided to set up the unit in Odisha, considering the State's high industrial potential, besides being a key market for the company. According to the management, the new grinding unit with its world class German machinery and modern technologies is on the path of setting a new trend in the industrial sector with innovative ideas for cutting edge production facilities in Odisha.
  • Its greenfield unit at Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh with 2.25 mtpa of clinker capacity and 1 mtpa of cement capacity is expected to be completed by the end of this fiscal. The plant will have railway siding, 10 MW WHRS and 15 MW thermal power capacity. Besides, expansion of clinkering capacity at Jayanthipuram Plant, Andhra Pradesh, from 3 mtpa to 4.50 mtpa along with WHRS capacity of 27 MW is in progress. Both these projects are expected to be completed by end of this fiscal.
  • The company is doing its efforts towards debt reduction since last year which has resulted in lower finance cost thereby improving its profitability. Moreover, the management of the company expects 25% revenue growth from current level during coming quarters.


  • Regulatory change
  • Fluctuation in raw material


Strong balance sheet with optimize operating capacity and management focus to increase market share would give strong base for the growth of the company. Ongoing capacity expansion plan would provide it the next leg of growth from FY2022. The company continues to focus on customer service, brand building and developing niche markets while maintaining highest quality standards. The company has been constantly focusing on various cost reduction initiatives and improving productivity without compromising on quality. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.919 in 8 to 10 months time frame on an current P/E of 34.81x and FY22 EPS of Rs.26.39.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months



Beat the street - Technical Analysis

Britannia Industries Limited (BRITANNIA)

The stock closed at Rs 3747.20 on 16th October 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 2100.00 on 23rd March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 4010 on 21st July, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 3444.97

As we can see on charts that stock is trading in rising channel on weekly charts which is considered to be bullish. Apart from this, stock is forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on charts, bullish in nature. As of now we don’t have the pattern breakout but its consolidation from past few weeks indicates that there is a strong spurt for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 3725-3735 levels for the upside target of 4050-4100 levels with SL below 3600.

JSW Steel Limited (JSWSTEEL)

The stock closed at Rs 311.05 on 16th October, 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 132.50 on 03rd April, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 312.45 on 16th October, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 241.06

Short term, Medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Apart from this, stock was formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern, which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has given the neckline breakout, by gained over 6% gains with huge volumes and also closed near weeks high, so buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 305-307 levels for the upside target of 340-345 levels with SL below 290.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




After gaining for two consecutive weeks, Indian markets took a breather and ended last week on negative note with Nifty ending below 11800 mark. Traders were seen booking profit at higher levels while call writers were adding hefty open interest at 11800, 11900 & 12000 strike with marginal put writing at 11700 strike. For upcoming week, 11700 level would act as major support for nifty while 11850-11900 zone would be crucial resistance. We may witness further long unwinding in Nifty till 11500 levels, if somehow 11700 levels gets breached. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 20.51% while that for put options, it closed at 21.69. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 22.06%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.32 up from the previous week indicating put writing. From the technical front, we may some negative divergence on secondary oscillators which could cap any sharp upside into the prices. We advise traders to remain cautious, if nifty breaches 11700 level on downside. Although focus on stock specific action should be on radar for upcoming week.












Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on15th October, 2020

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering





Turmeric futures (Nov) is expected to trade in the range of 5700-6050. Spot Turmeric prices are reported to be steady in major mandis across India amid some local buying and improved export demand. However arrivals have risen in most of the mandis. Erode turmeric traders are still waiting for higher upcountry demand. They are getting medium local demand from the Turmeric Powder grinding units and masala firms that purchased a good quantity of turmeric. Some buyers are purchasing for their pending demands. The traders said some turmeric exporters are buying good quality turmeric from one or two farmers and also from other States. No turmeric is being exported to Sri Lanka, as the Sri Lanka Government banned the import to develop their turmeric cultivated in their own country. But export of turmeric is in progress to other countries. Jeera futures (Nov) is likely trade with firm bias in the range of 13750-14200 due to festive demand as well as export buying from overseas. A drop in the number of fresh Covid-19 cases in India has been noted this week which will likely boost the hotels and restaurant segment demand for all food articles. Dhaniya futures (Nov) is likely to trade in the range of 6650-6850 levels. On the spot, festive demand has brought back cheers to coriander once again as spice manufacturers are engaged in aggressive buying. Buyers along with spice manufacturers are enquiring more than actually placing big orders. At Jaipur mandi, fine grade clean Badami are quoting in the range of Rs 6700-6900 per Quintal while Eagle variety are trading in the range Rs 7150-7600 and Parrot was priced at Rs 8400-8600 per Quintal.


Bullion counter eased and looked set to post its first weekly drop in three, as the dollar held firm while additional U.S. fiscal stimulus appeared unlikely before the presidential election. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was willing to raise his offer of $1.8 trillion for a relief deal with Democrats in Congress, but the idea was shot down by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The dollar, also considered a safe haven, was headed for its first weekly gain in three, supported by surging coronavirus cases globally and fading bets for a U.S. stimulus deal. The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted unprecedented money printing and low interest rates globally, putting gold on track for its best year in a decade given its appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. Silver prices fell back on concern that industrial metals demand in Europe will take a hit after some of the region’s biggest cities imposed fresh lockdown measures. As we get closer to the election and if it becomes more apparent that the Democrats may win, then gold may see a rise given their planned spend is significant higher, but at the moment the market is waiting for further clarity. Market participants also kept a close watch on developments in ongoing Brexit negotiations as a two-day summit of European Union leaders. Gold, considered a hedge against inflation, currency debasement and uncertainty, has gained 25% this year, driven by massive global stimulus to cushion economies from the pandemic-induced slump. For the next week, gold may trade in the range of 48200-52600 and Silver may trade in the range of 56200-66100. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1860-$1950 and Silver may trade in the range of $20.20-$26.10.


Soybean futures (Nov) is expected to trade firm and test to 4250-4375 by taking support at 3900 due to slow arrival. Heavier than average rainfall in key parts of Maharashtra and Southern states of Andra Pradesh and Telangana has affected the harvest pace. Arrivals will be slow for next few days. In meantime at a time when experts are bullish about the global prices of soyabean, the Indore-based Soyabean Processors’ Association of India (SOPA) has estimated an increase of 12.34 per cent in the domestic production during the kharif of 2020. Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures cautiously lifting as sales to China outweighed South American rainfall and harvest pressure. Soybean planting in Brazil is gathering pace with rainfall in key soy growing parts. Planting in Matto grasso region was 3.4% as compared to 12% of 5 year average. Mustard futures (Nov) may consolidate in the range of 5300-5700. The price may get support due to lower arrival from major producing areas and strong demand from millers. But likelihood of a sharp rise in crop area may weigh on the counter. The government has more than enough mustard seed of good quality for the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) Rabi sowing. It has total stock of 26,700 tons certified seeds against requirement of 25,100 tons. Soy oil futures (Nov) is expected to trade on a bullish note and test 955-960, while CPO futures (October) will probably zoom upside towards 805-810 levels. India's palm oil imports in September fell 27% on-year to their lowest in three months, due to lean demand from hotels and restaurants, while soyoil purchases jumped 28% in the month on higher household demand, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said.


Crude oil prices stuck in tight range of 2850-3020, but also we have witnessed recovery rally in past some trading sessions. But surge in COVID-19 infections again dimmed the outlook for economic growth and fuel demand. In Europe, some countries were reviving curfews and lockdowns to fight a surge in new coronavirus cases, with Britain imposing tougher COVID-19 restrictions in London. The EIA said U.S. crude stockpiles fell sharply on weekly basis, as offshore oil production was shut due to Hurricane Delta, while distillate inventories posted their biggest drop since 2003 as refiners are shut. Over the past four weeks, refiners have supplied 7.5% less product than at the same time a year ago, and with numerous states seeing a rise in coronavirus infections, fuel demand may remain weak. OPEC and allies in a group called OPEC+ are due to taper production cuts in January by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), from 7.7 million bpd currently. A Joint Technical Committee, which includes representatives from key OPEC+ producers met to review compliance with its global oil output cuts. OPEC’s Secretary General said demand was recovering more slowly than expected and OPEC+ will ensure oil prices do not plunge steeply again when it meets at the end of November. This week crude price may witness huge volatility within the range of 2740-3280, where selling pressure can be seen near the resistance. U.S. natural gas rose to their highest in more than 11 months last week, underpinned by expectations that an anticipated cold winter will stoke demand for the fuel used in heating. This week Natural gas may trade in wider range of 180-230 with bullish bias.


Cotton futures (October) may trade in the range of 18800-19800. The prices may get support as the cotton exports from India are likely to rise 20%-30% this year as global demand is rising, particularly from China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia, trade bodies and government agencies say. Domestic demand has also revived, with most of the spinning mills running at 95% capacity. Last week, the price of Indian cotton was about15% lower than the international benchmark rate of Rs 46,287 per candy, But scare revolved around news that Europe is experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 and considering a second shutdown may weigh on prices. Meanwhile, The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has increased its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 to 360 bales of 170 kg each compared to its previous estimate of 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each. Chana future (Nov) is trading with high volatility since last few session and may continue to trade in range of 5300-5550. The prices getting support as NAFED has suspended all Chana sell auctions till further notice. Negligible overseas supplies of White Pea will likely support Chana prices further. Demand of seeds for sowing is expected to rise as rabi sowing begins soon. Guar seed futures (Nov) is expected to gain further and test 4200, taking support near 3950. While, Guar gum futures (Nov) will trade with an upside bias in the range of 6100-6350. Stockists and millers have begun aggressive buying of new guar seed due to better quality and less humidity. Guar seed has witnessed price rise of up to Rs. 174 per quintal, while guar gum rose up to Rs. 100 per quintal.


Base metals may trade in the range with negative bias as on worries that rising COVID-19 cases around the world and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and lack of progress on another U.S. coronavirus relief package before the Nov. 3 election will dampen global growth and metals demand. But hopes of strong demand in top metals consumer China and risks of supply disruptions may support the prices. Copper can face resistance near 540. Prices will get support due to labour strike at a mine in top producer Chile. Supervisors at Chile’s Escondida mine said they were evaluating a new labour contract proposal from mine operator BHP amid negotiations to head off a strike at the world’s largest copper deposit, the union told Reuters. Chilean state-run copper miner Codelco said it was producing at full capacity and aims to meet its 2020 output targets. Aurubis, Europe’s biggest copper smelter, will offer unchanged 2021 copper premiums to its customers of $96 per tonne above LME prices. Zinc may trade in the range of 185-205 while Lead can move in the range of 144-152. Nickel may test 1160 by taking support near 1080. Nickel Mines Ltd will buy 70% of Indonesia’s PT Angel Nickel Industry for $490 million in a deal that will double its nickel production within two years. Aluminum may move in the range of 146-154. Aluminium producer Norsk Hydro is setting up two new divisions called Renewables Growth and Batteries as it increases its focus on sustainability. The European Commission has placed provisional duties ranging 30.4% to 48% on aluminium extrusion imports from China midway through an investigation into whether Chinese producers are selling at unfairly low prices.





NICKEL MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 1070.40 on 08th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 1165.30 on 02th Sep’2020 and a low of Rs. 1035.10 on 01st Oct’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1078.56. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.884.

One can buy near Rs. 1085 for a target of Rs. 1150 with the stop loss of Rs. 1052.

CRUDE OIL MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 2994.00 on 15th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 3320.00 on 25th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 2718.00 on 08th Sep’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 2957.80. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.238.

One can buy above Rs. 3040 for a target of Rs. 3300 with the stop loss of Rs. 2910.

GUARGUM NCDEX (NOV) contract was closed at Rs. 6071.00 on 15th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 6800.00 on 28th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 5824.00 on 15th Oct’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6161.42. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39.302.

One can buy above Rs. 6170 for a target of Rs. 6500 with the stop loss of Rs 6005.




  • Indias Gold imports stood at Rs 4419 crores in September 2020, down 51.43% compared to September 2019.
  • India's trade deficit for September 2020 was estimated to be USD 2.72 Billion as against the deficit of USD 11.67 billion in September 2019, which is a decline of (-) 76.66%.
  • IMF projects India'sGDPto contract by 10.3% in 2020-21.
  • The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, allowed ADNOC to commercially use 50 per cent of the oil it has stored in the reserves. The flexibility allowed will encourage the company to store more oil in the three reserves India has built as insurance against supply and price disruptions.
  • The Centre said about 5.56 million tonnes of kharif paddy worth Rs 10,500 crore has been purchased at minimum support price (MSP) from 4.80 lakh farmers in the last 18 days.
  • The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has increased its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 to 360 bales of 170 kg each compared to its previous estimate of 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each.
  • India's palm oil imports in September fell 27% on-year to their lowest in three months, due to lean demand from hotels and restaurants, while soyoil purchases jumped 28% in the month on higher household demand, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said.
  • China, the world's top soybean importer brought in 9.79 million tonnes of the oilseed in September, up 1.9% from 9.6 million tonnes in August, the data showed.
  • Nickel Mines Ltd will buy 70% of Indonesia’s PT Angel Nickel Industry for $490 million in a deal that will double its nickel production within two years.


The week gone by was full of uncertainty and thus CRB closed in a tight range as the direction was not clear. The dollar index edged higher to 93.435, drawing support from rising coronavirus cases and scant progress towards the US stimulus deal. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said getting a fiscal stimulus deal before next month’s election would be difficult, which weighed on global equities. Fading hopes of an immediate US economic stimulus package and a recovery in dollar continue to dent gold prices. Gold and silver prices closed in negative zone. Gold and silver closed near 50700 and 61500 respectively. Investors refrained to take aggressive position in base metals on flip flap on US stimulus. Recovery in China couldn’t give much positive impact on prices as other major economies struggling with increased number of cases of covid. Nevertheless, China's imports grew at their fastest pace this year in September, while exports extended strong gains as more trading partners lifted coronavirus restrictions in a further boost to the world's second-biggest economy. Chinese firms are rushing to grab market share as their rivals grapple with reduced manufacturing capacity. Imports surged 13.2% in September, returning to growth from a fall of 2.1% in August and much stronger than expectations for a 0.3% increase. China bought more soybeans, grains, semiconductors, copper and steel products in September, customs data showed. Nickel saw some bounce back from the lower levels on fear of tight supply issues. Aluminium prices slipped despite some uptick on crude prices. Despite it being a net importer for the past few months, China is still a huge exporter of aluminum downstream products. Chinese exports caused other large markets to contemplate restrictions on Chinese aluminum imports. Oil markets climbed for a third day despite a resurgence in COVID-19 infections across Europe potentially denting fuel demand. The OPEC+ alliance is optimistic that it will be able to gradually ease production cuts from January as planned. OPEC and its partners led by Russia agreed in April to reduce their combined oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day in response to the demand slump following the outbreak of coronavirus that caused prices to tank. Colder than normal weather continues to be forecasted to cover most of the mid-west of the US for the next 2-weeks increasing heating demand. The stainless steel industry consumers 74% of nickel produced today, dwarfing the 5-8% going into batteries. In agri commodities, upside in chana futures raised eyebrow of many after NAFED stopped to release it in open market amid ongoing festival time. Oil seeds and edible oil saw fresh buying on firm international market amid aggressive import of soy by China.







Spot Prices (% Change)



Global Auto sales …….driving force of base metal

Auto sales are the most important indicator for the automotive sector. More auto sales lead to increased sales and earnings for automakers, which then order more parts from auto part makers. For much of the 20th century, auto sales steadily trended higher.

The automotive sector is a cyclical business, so sales in the automotive sector are higher when economic activity is strong and people feel confident about their future economic prospects. In this environment, more people are likely to make a major purchase, such as an automobile. Automotive sales are one of the main drivers of base metals demand as it is used in car manufacturing. A strong automobile sales data indicates a rise in demand for base metals.

Global Auto sales

Global light vehicles sales are expected to fall by 20% this year compared with 2019 following sales and production disruption due to the Covid-19 pandemic, S&P Global Ratings said. Demand for cars in China continues to go from strength to strength, making the automobile market in Asia’s biggest economy a lone bright spot as the coronavirus pandemic puts a damper on sales in Europe and the US.

U.S : U.S. auto sales fell more than 9% year over year in the third quarter of 2020 amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic as sales of SUVs and trucks continued to fare better than cars, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. Sales, however, improved from the 33.3% decline in the second quarter.

China : Automobile sales in China rose 12.8% in September from the same month a year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of gain, as the world's biggest vehicle market comes off lows hit during the coronavirus lockdown. Sales reached 2.57 million vehicles last month, showed data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Sales are still down 6.9% for the first nine months of the year at 17.12 million vehicles, CAAM said.

Europe: New car and SUV sales in the European Union (EU) fell 18.9% in August compared with the same month last year, bringing the fall for the first 8 months of 2020 to 32% or 6.1 million, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.

Japan: Auto sales in Japan dropped 22.6 percent from a year earlier to 2.02 million vehicles in the fiscal first half, the sharpest fall in nine years, hit by the novel coronavirus pandemic, industry body data showed.

India: Automotive retail sales are up by 11.66 percent in September 2020, according to the monthly vehicle registration data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA). The automotive industry sold 13,44,866 units across segments in September, which was down 10.24 percent year-on-year, but a healthy 11.66 percent growth over August 2020 sales.

Festive season in India may push high growth

The months of October and November brings with themselves the much-awaited festivals of Navratri, Durga Puja and Diwali. With no more lockdown announced by the Central government, FADA anticipates a high growth period during these two months for automobile sales in the country.

In addition, the government’s consideration to waive off interest on interest during the moratorium period for loans up to Rs 2 crore will further help in improving customer sentiment, thus making them conclude vehicle purchase decisions during the festivities.




Currency Table

Market Stance

Indian Rupee broadly remained unchanged from the previous week although dollar has scaled-up being a safe haven currency at a rapid pace this week amid major concerns of second wave outbreak in developed economies, albiet rupee didn't faced the heat much in the wake of strong capital flows in our country. Ahead of US election, we do think volatility in rupee will remain higher. On the majors’ front, Euro continued to remain guided by dollar up-move. Latest German Economic Sentiment Index for October turns the lowest in four months which the biggest reason for euro to remains weak. Fresh covid restrictions across euro zone and below expectations economic data will keep euro lower in coming days. On the other side after four and half years of long and tiring Brexit negotiations when the UK is about to end the exit process in a matter of just 2 months, still the deadlock of Brexit talks continues and latest stand by EU leaders to extend the discussion for some sort of deal for another few weeks. Apparently sterling remains muted as there is no end solution of Brexit apparently, however fresh lockdown in the UK economy certainly put pound on back foot unless any major breakthrough in Brexit changes the trend.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (OCT) contract closed at 73.5075 on 15-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 73.5450 on 14-Oct-20 and a low of 73.1400 on 12-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 73.64.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.85. One can sell at 73.70 for the target of 72.90 with the stop loss of 74.20.

GBP/INR (OCT) contract closed at 95.0600 on 15-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 95.8900 on 13-Oct-20 and a low of 94.5525 on 14-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 95.27.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.30. One can sell at 95.10 for a target of 94.10 with the stop loss of 95.70.

News Flows of last week

12th OCT Bank of England asked banks how ready they are for sub-zero rates
13th OCT More synchronized action needed to tackle COVID economic crisis: IMF's Georgieva
13th OCT UK jobless rate hit 4.5% as work-protection plan nears end
13th OCT Government allowed 20 states to raise $9.4 billion in loans to meet revenue shortfall
13th OCT IMFsees less severe global contraction but trouble in emerging markets
14th OCT Singapore GDP shrank 7%, more than forecasts
15th OCT Persistently high U.S. weekly jobless claims point to labor market scarring
15th OCT Government plan to borrow 1.1 trillion rupees to give to states
16th OCT Vaccine cooperation, recovery could boost global income $9 trillion by 2025, IMF chief says

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (OCT) contract closed at 86.1075 on 15-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 86.9000 on 14-Oct-20 and a low of 86.0000 on 14-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 86.63.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.55. One can sell at 86.20 for a target of 85.20 with the stop loss of 86.80.

JPY/INR (OCT) contract closed at 69.83 on 15-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 69.96 on 15-Oct-20 and a low of 69.2725 on 12-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21- day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 69.83.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34.71. One can sell at 69.25 for a target of 68.25 with the stop loss of 69.75.




Equitas Small Finance Bank fixes IPO price band at Rs 32-33 per share

Equitas Small Finance Bank, the subsidiary of Equitas Holdings, has fixed the price band at Rs 32-33 per shares for its forthcoming initial public offering. The IPO is going to open for subscription on October 20 and close on October 22. The issue for anchor invetors will open for a day on October 19, a day before the issue opening for public. One can bid for a minimum of 450 equity shares and in multiples of 450 shares thereafter. The public issue consists a fresh issue of Rs 280 crore and an offer for sale of 7.2 crore equity shares by Equitas Holdings (which valued at Rs 237.6 crore at upper price band), hence the total issue size stood at Rs 517.6 crore. The offer includes reservation of Rs 51 crore worth of shares for eligible shareholders of Equitas Holdings and Rs 1 crore shares for eligible employees of Equitas Small Finance Bank. The eligible shareholders mean those individuals and HUFs who are the public equity shareholders of EHL (excluding such persons who are not eligible to invest in the offer under applicable laws or are otherwise unable to make any such investment) as on the date of the red herring prospectus i.e. October 11, 2020, the filing said. JM Financial, Edelweiss Financial Services and IIFL Securities are book running lead managers to the issue. Its equity shares are expected to list on BSE and NSE on October 30.

Likhitha Infrastructure shares debut at Rs 130, at 8% premium

Oil & gas pipeline infrastructure services provider Likhitha Infrastructure kick started trading on the first day with a 8 percent premium to the issue price on October 15. The stock listed at Rs 130 on the BSE against issue price of Rs 120. Likhitha Infrastructure raised Rs 61 crore via maiden public offer which was launched on September 29 with a price band of Rs 117-120 per share, but later extended up to October 7 with a revised price band of Rs 116-120 per share due to under subscription in qualified institutional buyers' category. The issue was subscribed 9.5 times. The company will utilise issue proceeds for its working capital requirements and general corporate purposes. Having over two decades of experience, Likhitha Infrastructure develops pipeline networks along with construction of associated facilities, as well as provides operations & maintenance services to leading city gas distribution (CGD) companies in India. The company is led by Srinivasa Rao Gaddipati, with around three decades of technical experience and co-promoted by his daughter Likhitha Gaddipati.








Mutual fund monthly SIP inflows, AUM fall a tad in September; but SIP folios rise MoM

Monthly contributions via systematic investment plans (SIP) in September has remained more or less stable compared to the last two months. Inflows for the same in September was Rs 7,788 crore, down marginally from Rs 7,792 crore in August and Rs 7,831 crore in July. Assets under management (AUM) of mutual fund companies that have come through the SIP route fell marginally to Rs 3.35 lakh crore in September from Rs 3.36 lakh crore in August. The silver lining is that the mutual fund industry added new SIP accounts in September. Currently, mutual funds have about 3.33 crore SIP folios through which investors regularly invest in schemes. In August, the total SIP folios were 3.3 crore. Overall, net AUM of the 42-player mutual fund industry fell to Rs 26.85 lakh crore in September from Rs 27.49 lakh crore a month ago.

Mutual Funds industry assets base rise 12% to Rs 27.6 lakh crore in September quarter

Mutual fund industry's asset base rose by 12 percent to Rs 27.6 lakh crore during the September 2020 quarter, primarily on account of rebound in markets. The average asset under management (AAUM) of the industry, comprising 45 players, was at Rs 24.63 lakh crore in April-June quarter this year, according to data by Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). All top 10 fund houses -- SBI MF, HDFC MF, ICICI Prudential MF, Aditya Birla Sunlife MF, Nippon India MF, Kotak MF, Axis MF, UTI MF, IDFC MF and DSP MF -- witnessed an increase in their respective average AUMs during the September quarter. Notably, Axis MF, UTI MF, SBI MF and Kotak MF have witnessed an increase in the range of 14-16 percent in their assets base beating the average industry's growth of 12 percent.




Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)





Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 15/10/2020
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 6%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.