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From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, Global stock markets moved higher as an increase in US jobless claims signaled some cooling in the economy, bringing optimism about the direction of interest rate hikes. Actually, the US Federal Reserve and other central banks have hiked rates in efforts to rein in runaway inflation, but investors fear the aggressive stance could spark a recession as higher borrowing costs slow economic activity. Investors across the globe earlier cheered the easing of the China's strict zero-Covid controls, which had hammered the world's second-largest economy. But they are now worried about the impact of the outbreak on global supply chains and inflation. In Europe, Germany shrugged off Russia's ban on oil sales to countries and companies that comply with a price cap on its crude exports. This came after the price ceiling of $60 per barrel agreed by the European Union, G7 and Australia came into force this month, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the data front, Japan’s factory output shrank for a third straight month in November as cooling demand overseas pushed production levels further below pre-pandemic levels. The continued weakness in output supports the Bank of Japan’s view that the economy’s fragile recovery is still in need of support.

Back at home, even though the domestic market scaled their fresh peaks at the beginning of December, the markets were fraught with volatility through the rest of the month. Actually, mixed global cues alongside worries over China's Covid surge impact on supply chains and inflation ahead limited the upside. Silver lining was that despite net outflow of FPI's, a positive trend was seen in the domestic markets as DII's were the net buyers. India's current account deficit (CAD) surged to an all-time high of $36.4 billion in July-September. The latest CAD figure is double the $18.2 billion posted in April-June and nearly four times of what it was in the second quarter of FY22. Year 2022 was full of political, geopolitical, policies, inflation related issues. We started the year 2022 with geopolitical tensions. Firstly Russia and Ukraine started and then China and Taiwan. Some kind of disturbances was seen between Saudi Arabia and the USA. The tension increased when G-20 put many sanctions over the Russia. Some military activities were also seen on India and China borders. So the year 2022 was full of events. Going forward, the new year 2023 is expected to be yet another volatile Year but with positive bias. Fundamentally things are looking positive in the contest of India. Globally, there is an expectation that war may end from the side of Russia as Russia is expecting to be ready to talk with Ukraine. Energy prices are expected to trade lower thus this may cool off inflation. Interest rates may peak out and China may come out from Covid, which is likely to give much needed support to the global economy.

On the commodity market front, Commodities traded in a tight range in the last trading week of the year. Volume was thin as the week was holiday shortened and high important data was almost none. Dollar index tried to gained support but was in slim spread, closed marginally below 104 levels. Market participants will return after a long holiday and market may witness some big moves. Gold and silver are likely to stay in upper base and can trade in a range of 53800-5588 levels and 67500-71000 levels respectively. Base metals may trade in a range with a bearish bias on expected negative data this week amid rising covid cases in China. NBS Manufacturing PMI of China, Unemployment Change, Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate data of Germany, Inflation Rate of France, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and FOMC Minutes of US, Inflation Rate of Italy, Balance of Trade of Canada, Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area, etc are some data, which will give much-needed direction to the commodities after long holidays.

May the New Year bring you happiness, peace and prosperity. Wishing you a joyous 2023!

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.



  • India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) surged to an all-time high of $36.4 billion in July-September. The latest CAD figure is double the $18.2 billion posted in April-June and nearly four times of what it was in the second quarter of FY22.
  • Reliance Jio announced the launch of its True 5G services in Indore and Bhopal. With the launch, Reliance Jio has become the first and the only operator in MP to launch 5G services in the city of Indore and Bhopal.
  • H.G. Infra Engineering has received LoA dated 29 December 2022 from National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for construction of 6-lane greenfield karnal ring road starting from NH-44 near village Shamgarh and terminating at Karnal - Munak Road near village Samalakha under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the state of Haryana under hybrid annuity mode. The company bid project cost is Rs 997.11 crore.
  • City Union Bank has opened 19 new branches. Mecheri at Salem District, Tamil Nadu is the 750th branch. The total branch network of the bank now stands at 753.
  • NTPC announced that upon successful commissioning, second part capacity of 50 MW out of 300 MW Nokhra Solar PV Project at Bikaner, Rajasthan, is declared on Commercial Operation.
  • JSW Energy has completed acquisition of 700 MW Ind-Barath Energy (Utkal) for Rs 1,047.60 crore through insolvency proceedings.
  • SJVN has bagged a 100-MW wind power project from Solar Energy Corporation of India. SJVN said that the tentative cost of this project is around Rs 700 crore and the project is expected to generate 262 million unit (MU) in the 1st year and the cumulative energy generation over a period of 25 years would be about 6,574 MU.
  • Cipla, the company’s wholly-owned UK subsidiary Cipla (EU) Limited has signed definitive agreements to invest 15 million euros in Ethris GmbH. Ethris GmbH is a global leader in delivering ribonucleic acid or RNA therapeutics directly to the respiratory system, including administration by inhalation.
  • Eicher Motors will make strategic investment of 50 million euro in Spanish electric mobility company, Stark Future SL. This investment will pave the way for a long term partnership in collaborative research and development in electric motorcycles, technology sharing, technical licensing, and manufacturing.
Real Estate
  • Godrej Properties has acquired around 9 acres of land in Haryana’s Gurugram, predicting a revenue potential of some Rs 2,500 crore in the residential project.
  • Skipper has secured fresh new order valuing Rs 2,570 crore from Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL). The contract has been awarded by BSNL for Supply and erection of Ground Based Telecom Towers, Infrastructure as a Service Provider (IaaSP) for supply, installation of Infrastructure Items and subsequent O&M for 5 years extendable to 5 more years in the uncovered villages of India under 4G saturation projects.



  • US pending home sales index tumbled by 4.0 percent to 73.9 in November after plunging by 4.7 percent to a revised 77.0 in October. The extended nosedive came as a surprise to economists, who had expected pending home sales to increase by 0.6 percent.
  • US consumer sentiment index for December was upwardly revised to 59.7 from the preliminary estimate of 59.1. Economists had expected the index to be unrevised.
  • US initial jobless claims crept up to 225,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 222,000.
  • Eurozone growth in the euro area money supply and loans to the private sector eased in November. The broad money supply M3 growth eased to 4.8 percent in November from 5.1 percent in October. The narrow measure M1 also grew at a weaker pace of 2.4 percent after rising 3.8 percent in the previous month.
  • Industrial output in Japan fell a seasonally adjusted 1.0 percent on month in November. That beat expectations for a decline of 0.3 percent following the 3.2 percent drop in October.
  • Japanese Retail sales grew 2.6 percent in November from the same period last year. This was the ninth consecutive rise in sales. However, growth was weaker than October's 4.4 percent and also less than economists' forecast of 3.7 percent.










Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

CMP: 1375.10
Target Price: 1581
Upside: 15%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1551.05/877.80
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 38117.77
  • EPS (Rs.) 32.18
  • P/E Ratio (times) 42.73
  • P/B Ratio (times) 7.60
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.35
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • C ummins India, part of the Cummins Group in India, is the country's leading manufacturer of diesel and natural gas engines for power generation, industrial and automotive markets. In September 2022 quarter the Capacity utilization for the company was about 70-80%.
  • Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) 4 plus norms implementation is coming in next fiscal i.e. July 1, 2023. The company expects price increase for CPCB 4 plus products are going to be substantially higher as the technology required to do are substantial. This development is positive for the company in terms of revenue and profitability. It expects strong pre buy in early half of CY2023 and plans to build inventory for that.
  • Cummins, a global power solutions provider, will provide technology in collaboration with the EPC player Tecnimont Private Limited (TCMPL), the Indian subsidiary of Maire Tecnimont Group, - to build one of India’s largest proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer for GAIL at Vijaipur, in Madhya Pradesh, India. This project is anticipated to produce 4.3 tons of green hydrogen per day.
  • Going forward, the company is expected to benefit from the government's push on infra (rail, road, and infrastructure construction), improvement in funding for the MSME sector, opening up of economies across the globe, and a somewhat stabilized supply chain. The strong demand from end user customer like data center, healthcare, infra, commercial real estate and manufacturing continue to drive future growth of the company.
  • Exports contribute 28% to the total revenue in Sept. 2022 quarter registering a growth of 21%on YoY basis. The company expects export business growth to sustain through gain in market share or through improving more products. It plans to leverage the CPCB-4 Plus norms to capture some of the other global markets.
  • According to the management of the company, the gross margin of the company is expected to improve in the subsequent quarter as commodities have started to soften and company has not rolled back any price increases. In the next 18 to 24 months the company plans to achieve margin of 34% to 35%. This may come on the back of higher contribution from high value export business and leverage from CPCB 4 plus norms.


  • Increase in commodity prices
  • Weakness in global demand


The company has strong balance sheet with very low debt. The new product launches and increase in government and private capex cycle would support growth going forward. The management of the company is expecting sustainable revenue growth. Moreover, with the stabilization of supply chain situation, the margins are also expected to improve as it has managed in the past. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 1581 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year average P/Ex of 38.28x and FY24 EPS of Rs.41.3.

P/B Chart

CMP: 138.95
Target Price: 163
Upside: 17%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 142.25/80.60
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 29379.19
  • EPS (Rs.) 11.80
  • P/E Ratio (times) 11.78
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.45
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.94
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • The business of the bank has increased at higher pace of 14% YoY to Rs 353104 crore end September 2022, driven by 19% surge in advances to Rs 163958 crore. Deposits also moved up 10% to Rs 189146 crore at end September 2022.
  • Advances growth of the bank has accelerated to 19% from 16% growth a quarter ago. The loan growth was driven by retail loans rising 18% YoY to Rs 52439 crore at end September 2022, while credit to agriculture increased 18% to Rs 21091 crore and MSME jumped 21% to Rs 15259 crore at end September 2022. The corporate credit has also surged 20% to Rs 75169 crore end September 2022.
  • The CASA deposits of the bank increased 11% YoY to Rs 68873 crore at end September 2022. The CASA ratio rose to 36.4% at end September 2022 compared to 36.2% at end September 2021, while it was nearly steady from 36.8% a quarter ago.
  • The Bank has substantially improved the credit to deposit ratio to 86.7% at end September 2022 from 79.8% at end September 2021.
  • The asset quality of the bank has improved in Q2FY2023. The Gross NPA improved to 2.46% from 2.69% in June 2022 and 3.24% same period last year. The Net NPA improved to 0.78% from 0.94% in June 2022 and 1.12% same period last year. Provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs) was 82.76%. Credit cost for the quarter stood at 0.53%.
  • The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CRAR) of the Bank, computed as per Basel III guidelines, stood at 13.84% in Q2FY2023. The Net Worth of the Bank was at Rs. 19,617.82Cr.
  • Return on assets (ROA) for Q2 FY23 improved to 1.21% as against 0.92% in Q2 FY22. Return on equity (ROE) increased to 14.36% in the quarter ended 30 September 2022 as compared to 10.73% in the corresponding quarter previous year.


  • Asset Slippages.
  • Regulatory Provisioning on assets


According to the management of the bank, it is the strongest quarter till date with very good growth across all key parameters. Strong business momentum has aided meaningful gains in market share. Asset quality of the bank has been resilient and demonstrates the underwriting, monitoring and collection capabilities of the Bank. As per the management, the bank has reported strong broad based credit growth in Q2FY2023, along with the overall costs been well managed. The bank is comfortably capitalized and liquidity is also supported by a healthy retail deposit base. All these are to benefit the bank to achieve higher credit growth and margin improvement going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.163 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BV of 1.45x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.112.35.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.



Beat the street - Technical Analysis


The stock closed at Rs 2637.60 on 30th December, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 2026.00 on 17th June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 2933.80 on 04th April, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2463.67

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on chart which are bullish in nature. Apart from this, stock is forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on weekly chart, which is considered to be bullish. On the indicators front such RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 2600-2610 levels for the upside target of 2900-2950 levels with SL below 2490 levels.


The stock closed at Rs 112.65 on 30th December, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 82.70 on 23rd June, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs. 138.67 on 06th April, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 106.05

As we can see on chart that stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, stock was formed a “Continuation Triangle” pattern on weekly chart, and has given the breakout of pattern and also has managed to close above the same, so follow up buying is anticipated from the stock in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 110-111 levels for the upside target of 125-128 levels with SL below 105 levels.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Indian markets rebounded in the last trading week of 2022 as Nifty surged more than 1.50% over the week while Banking index outperformed and closed the week with gains of more than 3%. On the sectoral front, Nifty PSU banks advanced along with Metal, Reality and Auto space while Nifty Pharma & FMCG counter remained under pressure. From derivative front, call writers remained active at 18200 & 18300 call strike while marginal put writing was observed at 18000 put strike. Technically 18250 would act as a strong resistance for Nifty as its 20 days exponential moving average on daily charts lies there. The implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 13.49% while that for put options closed at 14.25%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 14.81 and is expected to remain volatile. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.16. Overall we expect index to remain volatile in upcoming week and expected to trade in broader range. For Nifty, 18000-17850 zone would act as a strong support zone while 18250-18300 zone will likely to cap any sharp upside in the prices.












Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

Note: All equity derivative data as on 29th December, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering





Turmeric prices are expected to trade sideways to down due to muted domestic demand. Improved crop condition in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh and hand to mouth buying by millers are likely to keep prices under pressure in near term. However, downfall will be capped by weaker production outlook for upcoming season. Growing fear of Corona will drive the market up as demand from health care industry is likely to increase. Export demand has been good in year 2022 and is expected to improve further. India exported about 99 thousand tonnes of turmeric during Jan’22-Oct’22 compared to 89 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. About 8.5 thousand tonnes of turmeric arrived at major trading centers across India so far in Dec’22 compared to 18.8 thousand tonnes of previous year. Turmeric Apr prices are expected to trade in range of 8000-8600.

Jeera NCDEX Jan soared up further for new high at futures platform tracking supportive cues from physical market. Supply tightness at major trading centers and weaker production outlook for upcoming season backed by fall in acreages kept prices higher. About 2.68 lakh hectares were sown under jeera in Gujarat till 26th Dec’22 compared to 2.86 lakh hectares of previous year, down by 6% Y-o-Y. However, profit booking is likely to be seen soon as marginal buyers are away from bulk buying due to higher prices. Jeera Jan prices are likely to trade in range of 30700-31500.

Dhaniya NCDEX Jan prices are expected to trade mixed to higher on renewed buying at physical market. Buyers are showing interest at prevailing levels as prices has dropped to the lowest level of last 13 months. Rally in relative spices prices (jeera) is likely to keep market sentiments up for coriander as well. However, gains will be capped by better production outlook for upcoming season. Area under dhaniya in Gujarat in year 2022 reported at 2.20 lakh hectares as on 26thDec compared to 1.23lakh hectares of previous year, higher by 78% Y-o-Y. Dhaniya NCDEX Jan Prices are likely to trade in range of 8000-8700.


Bullion counter was on wild swing throughout the year. COMEX gold closed in a range whereas silver closed with marginal gain. Rise in dollar index, baked by record interest rate hike by Fed muted the gold rally in 2022. The dollar index eyed a yearly rise of more than 8%. However, gold prices have risen nearly $200 from a more than two-year low hit in September on hopes that the U.S. central bank might slow its pace of rate hikes. Story was little different in domestic market. As rupee hit record low and traded mostly on lower side; added premium in domestic gold and silver. Both gold and silver closed with more than 4% gain. Currently, markets are expecting the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates to a peak between 5.00% and 5.25% in the first half of the year. As recession fears grow; gold will remain hot favorite for investors. Although inflation has fallen from its highs in the summer, there is a fear that inflation is becoming unanchored in 2023. On weekly basis, bullion counter remained firm on increasing covid numbers in China amid travelling restriction in many countries from China. Fall in dollar index below 104 also given strength to the bullion counter. This week, market participants will rejoin after long holidays and some expected weaker data’s are likely to give further support to the bullion prices. Gold and silver will trade a range of 53800-55800 and 67500- 71000 respectively with upside bias.


Crude oil may trade with bearish bias on an uncertain demand outlook as more countries considered restrictions on Chinese travelers with COVID-19 infections spreading in the top oil-importing nation. Britain is reviewing whether to impose restrictions on people arriving from China. The United States, Japan, India and Taiwan have already imposed testing on arrivals from the country. Meanwhile, TC Energy Corp said the 622,000-barrel-per-day Keystone pipeline was now operational, weeks after a major oil spill in rural Kansas. U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week as imports climbed and exports fell, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Oil prices posted a second straight annual gain, albeit a meagre one, in a year mixed fundamentals of Ukraine conflict, a strong dollar and weak demand from the world's top crude importer China. Brent closed 2022 with almost 5.5% gain after rising 50.2% in 2021. Prices surged in second quarter to a peak of $139.13 a barrel, a level not seen since 2008, after Russia invaded Ukraine and sparked supply and energy security concerns. Sell on the rise at the resistance of 6770 levelsand support will be 6100 levels. The natural gas futures may continue to face selling pressure as the demand and supply could favor the bears as weather patterns are set to change after Dec. 28, 2022. According to NatGasWeather for December 29 – January 5, “Warmer than normal conditions will rule the southern and eastern halves of the U.S and overall, very low national demand is expected in coming days. But short covering at lower level cannot be denied as it is trading in oversold zone. Natural gas prices may trade in the range of 360-420.


Base metals may trade in the range as surging COVID-19 infections in top consumer China fuelled fears of an economic slowdown while tight supplies amid falling inventories may support the counter. Spikes in China's COVID-19 cases and the Lunar New Year holiday next month are expected to dampen metals demand in the world's top consumer of industrial metals, although supply concerns could lend some support. On other side, China will boost fiscal spending "appropriately" in 2023 to support the slowing economy, the finance ministry said. Copper may trade in the range of 695-745 levels. Attention is also focused on a dispute over taxes between Panama's government and First Quantum Minerals. The company's Cobre Panama mine produced 331,000 tonnes of copper last year. China's top copper smelters agreed on a guidance price for treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrate in the first quarter of 2023, rather than setting the typical floor price, suggesting there will be more flexibility in purchasing negotiations next year. Zinc can trade in the range of 255-280 levels. Lead can move in the range of 183-194 levels. Worries about supplies and dwindling stocks of the battery material in LME approved warehouses, which at 25,000 tonnes are near 15-year lows may support the counter. The scramble for lead has also created a hefty premium for the cash over the three-month lead contract. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-220 levels. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers a premium of $86 per tonne over the benchmark price for January-March shipments, down 13% from the current quarter. Steel long (Jan) is likely to trade in the range of 47500-50000 levels on NCDEX.


Kapas NCDEX Apr prices are expected to trade higher due to lower supplies in the market. Demand for Indian cotton has improved after recent fall in prices that prompted ginners to increase their ginning activities. Domestic supplies of Kapas is still ruling below normal as farmers are reluctant to release stocks in anticipation of further rise in prices. There is a steep drop in cotton arrivals in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh and Punjab. However, growing fear of recession and surging cases of corona in China is likely to keep the demand prospects subdued that will cap the major gains in prices. Kapas prices are likely to trade in range of 1580-1670.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX (Jan) futures are likely to trade on positive note due to increased demand at physical market. Supply tightness in oil seed cakes across India is likely to support firmness in prices. However, profit booking is likely to be seen later part of next week as increasing ginning activities will lead to rise in supplies across India. Prices are likely to trade in range of 2700- 3100.

Guar seed Jan futures are likely to trade higher on improved buying in domestic market. Tighter pipeline stocks with guar millers have sparked renewed buying. Export demand for gum is also improved that is likely to keep prices higher in near term. India exported about 219.8 thousand tonnes of guar gum in year 2021 and has exported about 208 thousand tonnes till Oct’22 in year 2022. Demand of churi and korma has been good that will cap the excessive losses in prices. Supply can increase at higher level that may cap the excessive gains as overall arrivals has been lower to below normal so far in year 2022-23 due to hoarding. Guar seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5800-6300 in near term.

Mentha oil Jan is likely to trade in mixed to down as profit booking is likely to be extended further due to limited buying in market. Export demand for menthol is likely to be slow down in wake of slowdown in economic activities in China that will put pressure on prices. However, supplies have been tighter due to lower production in year 2022 that has affected the pace of arrivals as well. Prices are likely to honor the resistance of 1040 and expected to move town towards 990.

Castor seed (Jan) prices are likely to trade on weaker note in wake of sluggish export demand. Growing fear of recession and increased cases of corona pandemic in China is likely to keep export demand of castor oil down that result into fall in crushing activities. Millers are avoiding bulk buying in wake of commencement of new crop of castor after Jan. Supply tightness in physical market is likely to restrict the major downfall in prices. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 6800-7400.





Contract: JAN
M*.High: 294.65
M*.Low: 261.25

It closed at Rs. 268.75 on 29th Dec 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 274.95. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.829. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.275 for a target of Rs. 250 with the stop loss of 285.

Contract: JAN
M*.High: 7192.00
M*.Low: 5901.00

It closed at Rs. 6473.00 on 29th Dec 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6601.61. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.161. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 6680 for a target of Rs. 6200 with the stop loss of 6900.

Contract: JAN
M*.High: 6473.00
M*.Low: 4800.00

It closed at Rs. 5966.00 on 29th dec 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 5076.45 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.901. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 5940 for a target of Rs. 6380 with the stop loss of 5810.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low




  • India’s real GDP is projected to grow at 6.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent in FY2022/23 and FY2023/24 respectively, said the IMF's report on India.
  • India’s current account deficit (CAD) widened to $36.4 billion, an all-time-high level, in the September quarter. This is 4.4% of the GDP, up from (revised) 2.2% in the previous quarter and a benign 1.3% in the yearago period: RBI
  • To ensure adequate domestic supplies of pulses, the government extended its decision to keep ‘free-import’ policy for two varieties – tur and urad by a year till March 31, 2024.
  • The government decided to provide free foodgrains to 81.35 crore people for one year under the National Food Security Act (NFSA) at an estimated cost of Rs 2 lakh crore: Union minister Piyush Goyal.
  • India exported 46.56 lakh tonne of wheat worth USD 1.5 billion during April-October this fiscal year as against USD 2.12 billion in 2021-22. Exports of basmati rice during the first seven months of 2022-23 stood at USD 2.54 billion (24.10 lakh tonne), according to data provided by Minister of State for Commerce and Industry.
  • India exports ₹2,400 cr of jewellery to Australia under FTA: Union minister Piyush Goyal.
  • Global mine copper production is expected to reach 22 million tonnes in 2022 (up 4% compared to 2021). Mine copper production is expected to increase to 23 million tonnes in 2023 and then to 24 million tonnes in 2024.
  • Russia’s President Vladimir Putin passed a proclamation on banning Russian crude oil exports to countries that imposed price cap from February 1 onwards, effective immediately, till July 1, 2023.


Commodities traded in a tight range in the last trading week of the year. Volume was thin as the week was holiday-shortened and highly important data was almost none. The dollar index tried to gain support but was in a slim spread, closed marginally below 104 levels. In the energy counter, crude oil was in range with downside bias while natural gas futures nosedived 19% in a week only. Moscow is ready to resume gas supplies to Europe through the Yamal-Europe Pipeline, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told state TASS news agency. Moscow is also discussing higher supplies of its gas to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Crude prices closed lower as surging COVID-19 cases in China dimmed hopes of a recovery in fuel demand in the world's second-biggest oil consumer. Oil refiners continued to ramp up operations, but some of that recovery is expected to extend to January. However, fall was limited as it drew some support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's ban on exports of crude oil and oil products from Feb. 1 for five months to nations that abide by a Western price cap. Bullion counter kept shining o safe haven buying. Gold prices rose as fears of a 2023 recession spurred some safe haven plays into the yellow metal. Bullion prices rallied last week against a weaker dollar, which was in part dented by a less dovish-than-expected stance from the Bank of Japan. The greenback was also dented by growing bets that U.S. inflation has peaked, which could invite a slower pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Base metals traded up but couldn’t stay at higher side. Among industrial metals, copper prices surged on more signs of an economic reopening in China, even as the country grapples with a massive spike in COVID-19 cases.

On agri front, in spices it was only turmeric which faded last week; otherwise, jeera and dhaniya prices augmented further. However, downside in turmeric was limited as supplies are shrinking due to off-season of arrivals wherein production outlook for upcoming season is also looking bleak due to lower acreages. Export demand has been good in year 2022 as India exported about 99 thousand tonnes of turmeric during Jan’22- Oct’22 compared to 89 thousand tonnes of previous year for the corresponding period. Jeera prices ruled at record levels due to supply tightness at major trading centers. A weaker production outlook is also supporting firmness in prices. The area under dhaniya jumped sharply in Gujarat in the year 2022 reported at 2.20 lakh hectares as on 26th Dec compared to 1.23 lakh hectares of the previous year, higher by 78% Y-o- Y. Bleak demand prospects and lower export demand crushed castor seed prices. Millers are avoiding bulk buying in wake of commencement of new crop of castor after Jan.







Spot Prices (% Change)



Rabi Crop Sowing Up On Farm Friendly Policies

Due to deficient and erratic monsoon this year, Rabi crops are making up for the shortfall in the sowing of Kharif crops in North India. For making Aatmanirbhar Bharat, Union Government under the leadership of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi is implementing many national programs to increase production of deficit commodities like oilseeds and pulses besides ensuring food security. Timely supply of quality seeds of high yielding varieties (HYVs), inputs, latest production technologies, credit, crop insurance, micro-irrigation and post-harvest facilities are few of such interventions taken to increase agricultural production and productivity. All these interventions have increased large area under rabi crops this year.

As on 23-12-2022, area sown under rabi crops has increased by 4.37% from 594.62 lakh hectares in 2021-22 to 620.62 lakh hectares in 2022-23. This is 25.99 lakh hectares more this year compared to corresponding period of 2021-22.

Wheat Production

The increase in area is across all crops; the highest being in wheat. Out of 25.99 lakh hectares increase in all rabi crops, increase in wheat area is 9.65 lakh hectares from 302.61 to 312.26 lakh hectares. Though sowing of rabi crops is still under progress, area brought under wheat this year (312.26 lh) till 23-12-2022 is more than normal rabi sown area (304.47 lh). This increase in wheat area is very encouraging in the background of crisis faced by world for wheat availability due to Russia-Ukraine war and for ensuring our own food security. Thus, a record area coverage and production of wheat is expected this year.

Oilseeds production

Oilseeds production is a major cause of concern as country has to spend heavily on import of edible oils to meet domestic demand. Due to renewed focus on oilseeds, area under oilseeds increased from 93.28 lakh hectares during 2021-22 to 101.47 lakh hectares this year. This is a major jump of 22.66 lakh hectares over normal sown area of 78.81 lakh hectares.

Mustard area increased by 7.32 lakh hectares from 85.35 lakh hectares in 2021-22 to 92.67 lakh hectares in 2022-23. Thus, out of 8.20 lakh hectares increase in area under oilseeds, rapeseed & mustard alone accounted for 7.32 lakh hectares. Implementation of Special Mustard Mission for last 2 years is mainly responsible for renewed interest of farmers in the cultivation of mustard. During last 2 years, area of rapeseed & mustard increased by 17% from 68.56 in 2019-20 to 80.58 lakh ha in 2021-22.

Pulse production

Pulse production is being focused to make country self-sufficient in these commodities. Special programme under National Food Security Mission nicknamed NFSM ‘TMU370’ has been launched with aim of increasing productivity of 370 districts having less than state average yields of pulses due to lack of good seed and technological interventions. Area under pulses increased by 3.91 lakh hectares from 144.64 to 148.54 lakh hectares.

The United Nations General Assembly has declared the year 2023 as the International Year of Millets. This was adopted by a United Nations Resolution for which India took the lead and was supported by over 70 nations. In order to meet growing demand of millets around world, the Government is promoting millet production through the NFSM-Nutri Cereals component of National Food Security Mission (NFMS) programme in 212 districts of 14 states. Coarse cum Nutri-cereals saw an increase of 2,42 lakh hectares in area under cultivation from 41,50 lakh hectares in 2021-22 to 43,92 lakh hectares in 2022-23 till date.

Union Government focus on Aatmanirbhar Bharat has laid emphasis on increasing productivity of all crops with focus on crops where demands is met through costly imports like oilseeds and pulses. This will result in bringing self-sufficiency in pulses, reducing import of edible oils and meeting global demands for wheat and millets. The farmers of the country will play major role in making country Aatmanirbhar in agriculture.




Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The US dollar posted its best yearly gains versus a basket of currencies in the last seven years supported by the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy as well as concerns about the global growth outlook. This year Fed has risen by 425 bps since March to keep inflation under control, a move that kept the dollar higher throughout 2022. However, expectations build up gradually that the central bank may not raise rates aggressively next year which pushed down the dollar index by 7.00% in the quarter ending in December. Accordingly, the rupee fell to a historic low this year to 83.29 vs the dollar in the wake of the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. However timely support from RBI to defend the rupee through offloading FX reserves of nearly 100 billion dollars helped the rupee to retreat from its historic lows. Going forward rupee is likely to face a range bound move in early January with a possible range between 82.20 - 83.10 in the coming days. On the majors, we are bearish in sterling/dollar while pound/rupee likely to slide in early January towards 98.50 while euro-rupee may find some consolidation between 87.00 - 88.00 as well.

USDINR (NOV)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 82.62 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.63 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.46 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.25.

One can buy on dip 82.65 for the target of 83.50 with the stop loss of 82.25.

GBPINR (NOV)is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 99.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 100.84 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 99.87. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.38.

One can sell on bounce near 100.00 for the target of 99.00 with the stop loss of 100.50.

EURINR (NOV) is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 87.50 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 88.60 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 87.35. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 72.92.

One can buy on dip near 88.25 for the target of 89.25 with the stop loss of 87.75.

JPYINR (NOV) is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 61.65 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 63.25 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 61.33. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 69.94.

One can buy on dip near 62.75 for the target of 63.75 with the stop loss of 62.25.




Sebi green lights IKIO Lighting IPO

IKIO Lighting has received approval from Sebi for its proposed initial public offering of shares. The Noida-headquartered company had filed draft papers with the capital market regulator for a public issue in October. The IPO comprises fresh issue of equity shares worth Rs 350 crore and an offer for sale of 75,00,000 shares by promoters. Of the total proceeds from the fresh issue, the company plans to use Rs 50 crore to repay debt, and infuse Rs 240 crore into arm IKIO Solutions for setting up a manufacturing facility in Noida, Uttar Pradesh. The company is in the business of manufacturing light-emitting diode lighting solutions. Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors is the book running lead manager to the issue.

Divgi Torqtransfer Systems’ IPO gets green light from SEBI

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has approved the initial public offering (IPO) of Pune-headquartered automotive component manufacturer Divgi Torqtransfer Systems. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of shares worth up to Rs 200 crore, and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 31,46,802 equity shares by promoters and other shareholders. Proceeds from the fresh issue will be primarily utilised to fund the company’s capital expenditure plans. Divgi is an automotive component manufacturer, having 3 manufacturing and assembling facilities located across India. The company is one of the leading players supplying transfer case systems to automotive original equipment makers in India, and the largest supplier of transfer case systems to passenger vehicle manufacturers in India. A transfer case is part of the drivetrain of four-wheel-drive and other multiple powered axle vehicles. It essentially transfers power from the transmission to the front and rear axles by means of drive shafts. Inga Ventures Private Ltd and Equirus Capital Private Ltd are the book running lead managers to the issue.

Survival Technologies files draft papers with Sebi to raise Rs 1,000 crore

Speciality chemical manufacturer Survival Technologies has filed preliminary papers with markets regulator Sebi to mop-up Rs 1,000 crore through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating to up to Rs 200 crore, and an Offer For Sale (OFS) aggregating to up to Rs 800 crore by its promoters and promoter group shareholders, according to its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). The OFS will see the sale of shares to the tune of Rs 544.41 crore by Vijaykumar Raghunandanprasad Agrawal, Rs 212.41 crore by Nimai Vijay Agrawal and Rs 43.18 crore by Prabha Vijay Agarwal. Going by the draft papers, the company may explore a pre-IPO placement. If such a placement is undertaken, the size of the fresh issue will be reduced. Proceeds from the issue worth Rs 175 crore will be utilised towards funding the working capital requirements of the company and other general corporate purposes. The Mumbaibased firm is a Contract Research And Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) focused speciality chemical manufacturer in India. It is one of the few speciality chemical manufacturers in India manufacturing select products from the heterocyclic and fluoro organic product groups for sale in domestic and in international markets. For financial year ended March 2022, the company's profit after tax stood at Rs 73.46 crore, whereas its revenue from operations rose to Rs 311.78 crore in FY22, as compared to Rs 274.79 crore in the previous fiscal.

Personal care brand Mamaearth’s parent files papers for Rs 400 crore IPO

Honasa Consumer Ltd, the parent company of personal care brand Mamaearth, has filed its draft red herring prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for an initial public offering (IPO). Through the offer, there will be a fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 400 crore, in addition to an offer-for-sale (OFS) component for 46.82 million shares. If it goes through, Honasa Consumer will likely be among the first new-age direct-to-consumer companies to have an IPO in India, after audiotech brand Boat withdrew its public offering plans earlier this year citing choppy market conditions. The OFS will see founders Varun Alagh and Ghazal Alagh and investors such as Sofina, Fireside Ventures, Evolvence India, Stellaris, and angel investors such as Snapdeal founders Kunal Bahl, Rohit Bansal, Rishabh Mariwala of FMCG giant Marico, and actor Shilpa Shetty Kundra, part-sell their stakes in the firm. The Gurugram-based company, which runs brands such as The Derma Co and BBlunt in addition to Mamaearth, was valued at $1.2 billion when it last raised $52 million in January this year. Mamaearth’s January funding round was led by Sequoia Capital but it is not selling its shares in the proposed IPO. Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, Citigroup Global Markets India, JM Financial, and JP Morgan India are the bankers to the issue. As per the offer document, Honasa Consumer reported revenue from operations of Rs 722.73 crore during April-September 2022 with a profit of Rs 3.67 crore. This compares to Rs 943.46 crore in operational revenue for the year ended March 31, 2022 on a positive bottom line of Rs 14.43 crore.

Gandhar Oil Refinery files DRHP to raise funds via IPO

Gandhar Oil Refinery, a leading manufacturer of white oils, has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the capital markets regulator Sebi to launch its initial public offering (IPO). The company’s IPO comprises a fresh issue of up to Rs 357 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 12,036,380 equity shares by selling shareholders. The offer for sale comprises up to 6.75 million equity shares by promoter selling shareholders, and up to 5.27 million equity shares by existing investors. The net proceeds from fresh issuance worth Rs 357 crore will be used towards financing the repayment/pre-payment of a loan facility, purchase of equipment and civil work, expansion in capacity of automotive oil, petroleum jelly, white oils by installing blending tanks, funding working capital requirements and general corporate purposes. Gandhar Oil Refinery is India’s largest manufacturer of white oils by revenue in FY22, including domestic and overseas sales and is one of the top five players globally in terms of market share in CY21. As of June 30, 2022, the product suite of the company comprises over 350 products primarily across the personal care, healthcare and performance oils (PHPO), lubricants and process and insulating oils (“PIO”) divisions under the “Divyol” brand. The products are used for the manufacture of end products in the consumer, healthcare, automotive, industrial, power and tyre and rubber sectors.

Tata’s Bigbasket eyes IPO by 2025 after $200 million fundraising

Tata Group’s Bigbasket may list its shares within three years after the latest capital raising valued India’s largest online grocer at $3.2 billion. The Bengalurubased e-commerce firm, which is focusing on expanding its pan-India reach, may choose to launch an initial public offering in 24 to 36 months but was open to raising more private capital before that, Chief Financial Officer Vipul Parekh said. The $200 million Bigbasket announced this week it had raised will bolster its quick commerce arm and expand its countrywide footprint as it looks to cement its dominance over the sector giants including Inc. and Reliance Industries Ltd. While deploying the fresh funds, there will be an “even split” between capital expansion and marketing in newer territories, according to Parekh. Bigbasket will increase the number of dark stores supplying BB Now — it’s quick commerce format which promises deliveries of household staples within 30 minutes — from about 200 to 300 outlets by March.








Baroda BNP Paribas Multi Asset Fund collects over Rs 1,200 crore via NFO

Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund said it has mobilised over Rs 1,234.72 crore assets under management (AUM) during the new fund offer (NFO) period of its multiasset fund. The NFO for Baroda BNP Paribas Multi Asset Fund was open from November 28 to December 12, 2022. The fund will reopen for subscriptions on December 26. Baroda BNP Paribas Multi Asset Fund is an open-ended scheme investing in equity, debt and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This is the second new fund offering by Baroda BNP Paribas Asset Management India Pvt Ltd in the last nine months since the formation of the merged entity in March 2022. Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund started operations on March 14 as Baroda Asset Management Company and BNP Paribas Asset Management Company’s merger finally came through after more than two years.

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund to open international funds for subscription from January, 2023

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund has announced that it will withdraw the temporary suspension of subscriptions in its five international funds from January 1, 2023. The AMC had issued an addendum dated November 22, 2022 allowing investments up to Rs 2,00,000 per PAN, per calendar month in each of the schemes and continued with the restrictions for the systematic investment options such as SIP, STP, etc. All these restrictions will be lifted from January, 2023. The AMC also said that in the event of complete exhaustion of the available headroom that is being utilized at present to resume overseas investments, all the subscriptions and investments might be paused again.

The five schemes that will be open for subscription from January 1 are:
  • Motilal Oswal S&P 500 Index Fund
  • Motilal Oswal NASDAQ 100 ETF
  • Motilal Oswal NASDAQ 100 Fund of Fund
  • Motilal Oswal MSCI EAFE Top 100 Select Index Fund
  • Motilal Oswal NASDAQ Q 50 ETF




Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)





Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 29/12/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.