2019: Issue 690, Week: 01st - 05th July

A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only)


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From The Desk Of Editor


n the week gone by, global markets traded on a mixed note as investors are eyeing I on the world’smost powerful leaders meeting that would set the direction of the global economy. The U.S. and China meeting is the key events for markets as it would determine next chapter in the trade truce. As a matter of fact recently U.S. President Donald Trump repeated threats of more duties on Chinese goods in case there is no progress on trade deal. President Donald trump also accused China and Europe of weakening their currencies to gain a competitive advantage. On the data front, US economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, at a 3.1 percent annualized rate, however, the export and inventory boost to activity masked weakness in domestic demand, some of which appears to have prevailed in the current quarter. Japan’s industrial output rose 2.3% in May from the previous month.

Back at home, markets witnessed volatile move amid weak cues from global markets as the G20 Summit began in Japan. Moreover, delay in the BimalJalan report pertaining to transfer of RBI’s dividend for the third time also added to the negative sentiments. Meanwhile, the panel is set to meet again in mid-July, after the presentation of the Union Budget on July 5. In another development, SEBI has tightened the rules for disclosure of pledged shares by promoters. Markets are expecting that the Modi government would tweak fiscal levers to give boost to the economy in the budget to be announced next week on 5th July. Tightness in liquidity and weak business activity have been major drag on the economy. So far in the monsoon season uptill 26th June cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole is below LPA by 36%. Going forward, macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, progress of monsoon, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate market trend. Besides, Investors will also keep a close watch on inflows from foreign and domestic investors.

On the commodity market front, further buying spree was witnessed in commodities and firm CRB, which had been trading up since last three week, indicated the same Buying spree was continued in commodities and it is evident by the fact that CRB is continuously trading up since last three week. Investors were eyeing on G20, this week OPEC meet will be the cynosure. OPEC and some non-members including Russia, known as OPEC+, will hold meetings on July 1-2 in Vienna to decide whether to extend their supply cuts. Manufacturing PMI of China, German Unemployment Claims Rate¸ ISM Manufacturing, ISM Employment¸ ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite, Change in Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate of US, Unemployment Rate of Canada, RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI, etc are few strong triggers for the commodity market in coming week.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

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• Reliance Infrastructure has bagged Rs 7,000 crore Versova-Bandra Sea Link project contract from Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) in Mumbai. Versova-Bandra Sea Link is a marquee project with a length of 17.17 km, which is three times the length of the Bandra-Worli Sea Link of 5.6 km.

• Adani Ports and SEZ Limited announced plans to raise $750 million (approx Rs 5,195 crore) to fund its capital expenditure requirement and also to retire some of its debt. It intends to use the proceeds primarily for capital expenditure, including on-lending to subsidiaries for purposes, and the remainder for repaying existing indebtedness.

• L&Thaswon a projectfor constructing a power plantin Bihar.The projectis estimated to be worth more than Rs 7000 crore. The power business of L&T has bagged a mega EPC order from SJVN Thermal Private to set up a 2x660 MWultra-supercriticalpowerplantinBuxardistrict,Bihar.

Real Estate

• Promoters of DLF have infused Rs 2,250 crore in the company against issuance of new equity shares. The current tranche of capital invested concludes the induction of capital of Rs 11,250 crore by the promoter group as planned in December 2017.


• L&T's stake in Mindtree has now crossed 60%. The company had bought 31% stake through the open offer, while it had earlier acquired 20% stake from Cafe Coffee Day founder V G Siddhartha and around 9% through the open market.


• The promoters of Emami Group have sold 10% of their stake in Emami for around Rs 1,230 crore, which will partially bring down promoterlevel debt. The stake sale was executed on the floor of the stock exchange on at Rs 271 a share to institutional investors.In February, promoters had sold a 10% stake for Rs 1,600 crore.


• The Hindujas will pump another Rs 2,700 crore into Indusind Bank through a warrant issue to ramp up the promoter holding after the merger of Bharat Financial. The merger between the bank and the micro-lender will be effective July 4. Promoters will infuse Rs 2,700 crore to get their stake back to 15%.


• First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits increased by more than expected in the week ended June 22nd. Initial jobless claims rose to 227,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level of 217,000.

• New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods unexpectedly showed another steep drop in the month of May. Durable goods orders slumped by 1.3 percentin May aftertumbling by a revised 2.8 percentinApril.

• Reflecting the escalation in trade and tariff tensions, the Conference Board released a report showing a substantial deterioration in U.S. consumer confidence in the month of June. Consumer confidence index tumbled to 121.5 in June from a downwardly revised 131.3 in May.

• Eurozone economic sentiment deteriorated more-than-expected to the lowest level in nearly three years in June, strengthening calls for further monetary easing. The economic sentiment index dropped to 103.3 in June from 105.2 in May. This was the lowest since August 2016, when the reading was 103.2.

• UK car production declined for the twelfth straight month in May on sharp contractions in domestic demand and exports. Car production plunged 15.5 percent or 21,239 units on a yearly basis in May. Demand both at home and abroad dropped by double-digits reflecting softening in the UK and key global markets, and the effects of model changes, caused the negative performance to continue.

• Japan automobile production recovered in April. Auto production expanded 4.7 percent on a yearly basis in April, reversing a 4.1 percent fall in March. Passenger car production advanced 4.8 percent annually, in contrast to a drop of 3.8 percent in March. Small car production fell 0.2 percent, while output of mini cars surged about 10 percent.


Stocks *Closing Price Trend Date Trend Changed Rate Trend Changed SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing S/l
S&P BSE SENSEX 39395 UP 08.02.19 36546 36300 35300
NIFTY50 11789 UP 08.02.19 10944 10900 10600
NIFTY IT 15936 UP 21.07.17 10712 15200 14800
NIFTY BANK* 31105 UP 30.11.18 26863 27700 27000
ACC 1562 DOWN 14.06.19 1549 1620 1640
BHARTIAIRTEL 347 UP 15.03.19 338 335 325
BPCL 392 UP 08.03.19 367 370 360
CIPLA 553 UP 01.03.19 552 530 520
SBIN 361 UP 02.11.18 286 340 330
HINDALCO 207 DOWN 17.05.19 192 210 215
ICICI BANK** 437 UP 02.11.18 355 400 390
INFOSYS 732 UP 14.12.18 706 710 690
ITC 274 DOWN 31.05.19 279 290 295
L&T 1553 UP 08.03.19 1339 1430 1380
MARUTI 6535 DOWN 26.04.19 6843 6800 7000
NTPC 141 UP 08.03.19 127 124 120
ONGC 168 UP 08.03.19 150 160 155
RELIANCE* 1253 UP 30.11.18 1168 - 1250
TATASTEEL** 504 DOWN 10.05.19 487 - 510

*Reliance has broken the support of 1280

**TATASTEEL has breached the resistance of 500

Closing as on 28-06-2019


1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.


Meeting Date Company Purpose
01-Jul-19 Stampede Capital Ltd. Other business matters
01-Jul-19 Spacenet Ent. India Ltd. Other business matters
02-Jul-19 Jyoti Structures Limited Other business matters
02-Jul-19 KalpataruPower Other business matters
03-Jul-19 Eris Lifesciences Limited Buyback
03-Jul-19 Som Distilleries Financial Results
03-Jul-19 Power Grid Corp of India Limited Fund Raising
Jul-19 GM Breweries Limited Financial Results
05-Jul-19 Prism Johnson Limited Fund Raising
06-Jul-19 Superhouse Limited Other business matters
08-Jul-19 Goa Carbon Limited Financial Results
12-Jul-19 3i Infotech Limited Financial Results
12-Jul-19 Infosys Limited Financial Results
Ex-Date Company Purpose
01-Jul-19 RBL Bank Limited AGM/Dividend Rs 2.70/-
02-Jul-19 UPL Limited Bonus 1:2
02-Jul-19 Supreme Industries Ltd. AGM/Dividend - Rs 9
03-Jul-19 Sundaram Finance Ltd. Agm/Spl Div- Rs.5/- Div-7.5/-
03-Jul-19 Aarti Industries Limited Scheme Of Demerger
04-Jul-19 HDFC AMC AGM/Dividend - Rs 12
04-Jul-19 Balkrishna Industries Ltd. AGM/Dividend - Rs 2
04-Jul-19 Welspun Corp Limited Dividend Rs - 0.50
04-Jul-19 Axis Bank Limited AGM/ Dividend - Re 1
04-Jul-19 Welspun Corp Limited Buyback
04-Jul-19 Star Cement Limited Buyback
04-Jul-19 Tata Steel Limited AGM/Dividend - Rs 13
04-Jul-19 Tata Sponge Iron Limited AGM/Dividend - Rs 12.5
04-Jul-19 Symphony Limited AGM/Dividend Rs 1.50
04-Jul-19 Sasken Technologies Ltd. Buyback





Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis


CMP: 382.90

Target Price: 441

Upside: 15%


Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 557.40/294.80
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 11410.91
EPS (Rs.) 19.38
P/E Ratio (times) 19.76
P/B Ratio (times) 4.77
Dividend Yield (%) 2.22
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• • Hexaware Technologies is a provider of information technology (IT), business process outsourcing (BPO) and consulting services.

The company has earmarked USD 250mn to 300mn to be spent on acquisitions over 2-3 years with minimum revenue size of USD 25mn per acquired entity. Acquisition targets include focus areas of cloudandcustomerexperiencewithentities having high revenue or client and profitability close to the company

• For quarter ended June 2019, consolidated total income from operation inclined 8% to Rs 4,149.82 crore, due to improvement in cement realization, operational efficiencies and supply chain efficiency improvement. The company's cement sales volumes were flat at 7.20 million tonnes during the quarter, while cement realization improved by 7.2% to Rs 5,335 per ton.

• In Q12019, APAC (Asia, Europe and Asia Pacific) showed15.2%QoQgrowth.Manufacturing& Consumer (M&C) is the fastest growing vertical with 15.6% QoQ and 26.7% YoYgrowth in Q1 2019. Professional Services (PS) displayed 29.8% YoYgrowth. In Q12019, Business Process Services (BPS) led the service line growth with 7.0% QoQ and 22.9%YoYgrowth.InfrastructureManagement Services (IMS) clocked 50.5% YoYgrowth.

• Net new deal wins of TCV USD 36mn likely to support growth. It has added 4 new clients during March quarter.

• Its services attrition rate increased to 18.20 percent in the quarterended March2019 compared with 13.40 percent sequentially on trailing 12 month basis.

• Total employees stood at 16509 at the end of March quarter, up from 16205 headcount it had as of December 2018. Net employee addition during the quarteris304.Blended utilization improved marginally to 79 percent from 78.7 percent on sequential basis.

• According to the management of the company,March quarter has delivered yet another quarter of double-digit growth of 10.9%YoY.Guidance of 12 to 14% USD revenue growth for CY19 maintained and it will be supported by ramp-up of large Net New client deal as well as strong deal pipeline.Geographical expansion in Europe/APAC also expected to support growth.


• Foreign Exchange fluctuation

• Increasingadvancementsincognitivetechnologies,AI


Overall performance reported by the Company is quite healthy,a well-balanced capitalal location strategy through a combination of capital expenditure,dividends and acquisitions . Strong performance in Manufacturing & Consumer and Professional services verticals would help to transform growth for the future.Thus,it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.441 in 8 to 10months’ time frame on an expectedP/Eof21x and CY19(E) earnings of Rs.21.



Target Price:311



Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 385.00/243.60
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 2210.59
EPS (Rs.) 17.51
P/E Ratio (times) 18.85
P/B Ratio (times) 3.01
P/BDividend Yield (%) 0.09
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited is an integrated construction company. The Company's project portfolio encompasses projects across residential and commercial complexes, hotels, institutional buildings, hospitals and corporate offices, Information Technology (IT) parks and industrial complexes, metro station and depot and power plants among others.

• Order inflow stood at Rs. 4690 Crores in FY19 vs. Rs1300 Crores in FY18 majorly due to significant order winning from Hospitals and Institutional segments. The Management expects order inflow of Rs 2000 Crores n in FY21 based on current bidding pipeline of Rs 5000 Crores in Hospitals, Educational and Metro segments. Order book stood at Rs. 6000 Crores on back of strong order wins

• Nearly 43% of total orders are from hospitals,followed by 24% from institutional and 19% infrastructure.86% of total orders are from government while only 14% accounts for private orders.

• The management has given a15% revenue growth guidance for FY20, slightly lower from the earlier 15-20%, but also stated that the guidance has potential to be revised north. It also gave a margin guidanceof13.5%forthecoreconstruction business. The company expects to incur a about Rs. 40 Crores of capex in FY20.

• In Q4 FY19, the company reported a 9% YoYgrowth in revenue to Rs 487 Crores. Delay in Charbagh project, Delhi redevelopment project, Kolkata Audotorium projects and delay in bill certification

impacted revenue booking. EBITDAgrew by 6% YoYto Rs 56.7 Crores, while EBITDAmargin fell lower at 11.6% mainly due to one-time liaisoning fee for Kota project. Net profit stood flat on YoYbasis at Rs 31 Crores.


• Slower Execution of projects

• Delay in grant of orders by government


Ahluwalia’s higher profitability will be supported by an improving balance sheet position,higher efficiency, stronger execution capabilities, stronger order book and a credible management team. Also, the management has highlighted the further scope of margin improvement due to a higher proportion of Government orders, better operating efficiencies along with better utilization of capital equipment. Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 402 in 8-10 months time frame on the PEx of 17.91 times and FY20E EPS of 22.44.

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.



Beat the Street-Technical Analysis

CESC Limited (CESC)

The stock closed at Rs 784.30 on 28th June, 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 642 on 30th October 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1038.85 on 04th September 2018. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 719.09

As we can see on chart that the stock formed a double bottom pattern on weekly charts and has started moving higher. Apart from this, it has given the consolidation breakout and also has managed to close above the same by registered gains over 3% during last week along with volumes, which indicates buying is aggressive for the stock so follow up buying can continue for coming week. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 775-778 levels for the upside target of 830-845 levels with SLbelow 740.

Muthoot Finance Limited (MUTHOOTFIN)

The stock closed at Rs 644.80 on 28th June, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 356 on 09th October 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 656.40 on 04th June 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 542.81

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock has given the consolidation breakout and also managed to close above the same so buying momentum can continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 635-640 levels for the upside target of 700-715 levels with SL below 600.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Long rollover to July series was seen in the week gone by. Average rollover price is in the range of 11800 to 11850 levels. Smart recovery was seen led by short covering from lower levels. Calls writers covered their short positions and put writers were actively selling puts. Maximum put open interest buildup of more than 20 lakh shares is at 11700 puts, which should act as strong support zone. Next week Nifty is most likely to trade in the range of 11700 to 11900 with positive bias. Nifty has multiple strong supports at lower levels. Various supports are 11700 & 11650 spot levels. Option put writers were active in recent rally. We have seen put writing in 11600, 11700 puts. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 13.87% while that for put options closed at 13.00%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 14.65% and is expected to remain sideways. Among Nifty Call options, the 11900-strike call has the highest open interest of more than 30 lakh shares, and in put side 11700-strike put has the highest open interest of over 20 lakh shares in open interest respectively. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.44 which indicates OTM put writing. On the technical front 11700-11750 spot levels is strong support zone and current trend is likely to continue towards 11850-11900 levels.












Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering




The downtrend in turmeric futures (July) is likely to continue & it may test 6200-6100 levels. The sentiments are bearish owing to lack of demand as farmers are not bringing quality produce to the mandis, rather busy in sowing practices of the new crop. After the increase pace of monsoon, improved sowing is witnessed in the key growing areas of Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka. At present, the farmers are seen reluctant to their turmeric as present price are not feasible for them, but are selling only to meet their domestic expenses. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales Yard, finger turmeric sold at Rs.5,678-Rs.7,333 a quintal, root variety sold at Rs.5,300-Rs.6,529. The correction phase in jeera futures (July) is likely to continue as it may see 16450 levels on the downside. Jeera prices in Unjha are falling too, Gujarat, on account of adequate supplies. Arrivals have been steady at over 5,000-6,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) for the past few weeks. In Unjha, the benchmark market, exchange-quality jeera was sold at 17,200 rupees per 100 kg. Cardamom futures (July) is looking bullish for 3000 levels tracking unabated surge in prices at Spices Board of India's auctions in the wake of lower crop estimates. The average price of small cardamom was 3,150 rupees per kg auction held at Bodinayakanur in Tamil Nadu. Dhaniya futures (July) is expected to trade with a downside bias & move lower towards 6700-6600 levels. Poor demand from the domestic stockists & rise in inventories at exchange-accredited warehouses, is weighing on prices.


Bullion counter may continue its sharp upside momentum as weaker greenback, fear of interest rate cut by Fed in upcoming meeting and uncertainty regarding US and China trade war to keep the sentiment upbeat. Moreover geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will also continue to assist the prices higher. Chinese president Xi stated that they would want to resume talks and negotiate on the terms again and also has asked to lift the sanctions on companies that US has put including Huawei. Although, President Trump also stated that, if there is no progress seen on trade talks with China, he will impose the additional tariffs on remaining goods from China. Gold (Aug) can further move higher towards 35100 while taking support near 33800 while silver (Sep) can test 39500 while taking support near 37500. Meanwhile, US economy grew at 3.1% in line with expectation. The US dollar index has recovered marginally from 3-month lows as comments from Fed officials dented market expectations of immediate and aggressive rate cuts by Fed. San Francisco President Mary Daly stated that any rate cut would be to boost growth but it is difficult to say whether interest rate will be lower a year from now. Gold silver ratio hovered around historical high of above 93 as gold continue to outperform silver. Gold, however, remains supported by dovish stance of Fed and other central banks, disappointing economic data from major economies and increased tensions between US and Iran. India's gold demand could fall in 2019 as a rally in local prices to a record high dents retail purchases during a key festive season.


Soybean futures (July) is expected to witness a consolidation & trade with an upside bias in the range of 3600-3725 levels. Absence of monsoon rains has halted sowing operations in key growing areas of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The government has recommended that farmers wait for adequate monsoon rains and start sowing if rain water reaches 4 inches in the soil. Asmall delay in sowing may not hit the overall crop this year because soybean planting usually lasts till the third week of July. Some farmers continue sowing even till early August, but the yield from the crop sown later would be lower. On CBOT, U.S soybean futures (July) is seen facing resistance near $9.20 a bushel. The upside is getting capped as the traders are cautious owing to volatility in the weather over the major growing areas. It is being anticipated that this week the improved weather could prompt some farmers to plant more soy and could boost crop conditions. Mustard futures (July) is likely to stay on a strong foot & test 3980-4000 by taking support near 3895 levels. The spot prices are firm due to paucity of stocks in physical markets coupled with improved buying from oil millers & continuous procurement effort by NAFED. CPO futures (July) may witness an upside momentum towards 520-525 taking support near 503 levels, while soy oil futures (July) will probably continue to trade with a bullish bias towards 750-755, if sustains above 745 levels. It is reported that the farm ministry is working with government think tank NITI Aayog to devise ways to stem huge imports of edible oil in the country, and support the industry and domestic oilseed growers.


Crude oil prices may continue to witness further recovery as rising tensions in the Middle East will continue to support he prices. But investors will be edgy as outcome of OPEC meeting starting and US China trade war will be keenly watched. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-members including Russia, known as OPEC+, will hold meetings on July 1-2 in Vienna to decide whether to extend their supply cuts. Markets are expecting the same rollover in the OPEC meet i.e. the extension of 1.2mbpd output cut deal in the meet. But Russia remains hesitant to go for an output cut extension. Crude oil may take support near 3850 levels and can move higher towards 4250 levels in near term. President Xi Jinping has stirred hopes that trade tensions could ease followed by the OPEC meet on 1st July 2019. Crude oil is also supported by increased tensions between US and Iran amid recent attacks in Middle-east and retaliatory sanctions by US on Tehran. However, supporting crude oil price is US EIAweekly report which noted a sharp 12.788 million barrels decline in US crude oil stocks as against expectations of a 2.8 mn bbl decline. US crude production fell for the third consecutive week to 12.1 million barrels per day. Natural gas may witness lower level buying can it can test 175 while taking support near 150. Natural gas prices rallied following a smaller than expected build in natural gas inventories. On demand front, weather forecasts show warmer weather in parts of US which will increase cooling demand.


Cotton futures (July) is expected to show some more weakness towards 21000 levels. The cotton sowing during the ongoing Kharif season in three states of north India Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab has already topped the year-ago level, while the acreage in west and south India has been lagging, data provided by respective states showed. The acreage in south and western India has been down due to scanty rains. The total area in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan has reached 1.62 mln ha, up from 1.60 mln ha a year ago and also up from five-year average normal area of 1.47 mln ha, the data showed. Meanwhile, we may see a consolidation in U.S cotton futures in the range of 63-69 cents per pound. The market participants are cautious due to inexplicable change in weather during the ongoing sowing season. In the Midwest, relentless rain flooded fields. Meanwhile, parts of the Southeast have been gripped by extreme heat and drought. Both scenarios are terrible for farmers, who may plant less crop than projected. Castor seed futures (July) is expected to take support near 5360 levels & trade with an upside bias till 5550-5600 levels. This commodity is witnessing gains in key spot markets of Gujarat owing to decline in acreage.Area under kharif castor was at 2,039 ha as of June 20, down 72% on year, according to the latest data from the farm ministry. Cocud futures (July) may continue to face resistance near 2900 levels & witness profit booking. Sluggish demand from the cattle-feed industry as concerns over low availability of fodder eased, after monsoon progressed in the key drought-prone areas of Gujarat and Maharashtra, is seen weighing on prices.


In base metal counter, Nickel and copper may witness lower level buying but further movement in base metals depend upon the news regarding the trade tensions between US and China. China's central bank stated that it will maintain support for the slowing economy as global risks rise, while vowing not to adopt "flood-like" stimulus that could exacerbate debt and structural risks. Copper may further recover towards 425 levels while taking support near 400 levels. Copper prices got some support following news that dozens of artisanal miners were killed when part of a copper and cobalt mine owned by Glencore collapsed in Congo. Refining charges in China have fallen, signaling a tightening in market, and Chinese copper premiums have started to make a comeback. Meanwhile, Lead may trade sideways as it can face resistance near 160 while taking support near 149 levels. Zinc may trade with weak bias as it can test 194 levels while taking resistance near 206 levels. Nickel can further recover towards 930 while taking support near 870 levels. The downside in Nickel may be capped amid supply worries. Meanwhile, production is also halted temporarily from Glencore’s Koniambo nickel plant in New Caledonia amid leak. Aluminium can test 135 levels while taking resistance near 148 levels. Aluminum downside may be capped amid reports of possible idling of Quebec Plant by Alcoa Corp. as it has threatened to idle the entire facility of Quebec Plant if workers don’t sign what it’s calling a “final offer’’.





NICKEL MCX (SEP) contract closed at Rs. 1166.00 on 29th Aug’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 1184.50 on 30th Aug’19 and a low of Rs. 974.10 on 29th Jul’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1040.00. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 81.062.

One can buy near Rs. 6800 for a target of Rs. 7250 with the stop loss of Rs. 6650

NICKEL MCX (JUL) contract closed at Rs. 911.90 on 27th Jun’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 912.90 on 27th Jun’19 and a low of Rs. 845.00 on 06th Jun’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 882.14. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.331.

One can buy around Rs. 895 for a target of Rs. 925 with the stop loss of Rs. 880.

GUARSEED NCDEX (JUL) contract was closed at Rs. 4170.00 on 27th Jun’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 4608.00 on 13th May’19 and a low of Rs. 4140.00 on 11th Jun’19.The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4347.40. On the daily chart,the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34.782.

One can buy near Rs. 4150 for a target of Rs. 4300 with the stop loss of Rs 4075.




• Euro zone economic sentiment main indicator of economic confidence dropped to 103.3 points in June from 105.2 a month earlier.

• India exported 319,000 tonnes of finished steel in May, down 28% from the same month last year and the lowest level since April 2016.

• Russia became the largest crude oil supplier to China in May, supported by robust demand from private refiners.

• US Conference Board stated that its consumer confidence index dropped 9.8 points to a reading of 121.5 last month, the lowest since September 2017.

• The Government has procured over 768,900 tons of chana, harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), in nine states as of 24th June, 2019 under the price support scheme.

• Aluminium stocks at MCX-accredited warehouses were at 2,518.4 tons as on 26th June, 2019. The stock is the highest since base metal contracts were brought under the compulsory delivery regime from April, as per SEBI's directions.

• MCX Copper Option 22 July 2019, 21 August 2019 and 19 September 2019 contracts will be available for trading with effect from June 27, 2019.

• The Australian Bureau has further downgraded its El Nino 'watch' status to ‘inactive.’ Separately, it reiterated that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase will run from July to November


Buying spree was continued in commodities and it is evident by the fact that CRB is continuously trading up since last three week. The entire world was looking for the G 20 meet. The leaders of the G20 countries meet on Friday and Saturday in Osaka, Japan, but the most anticipated meeting is between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday. Ahead of G20, gold took some correction from the higher levels as investors were cautious ahead of meeting. Decline in physical demand of gold in India at higher prices is also capping the upside. India's gold consumption dipped 1.5% in 2018 to 760.4 tonnes, below a 10-year average of 838 tonnes, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council. Gold prices extended losses after a revision to first-quarter gross domestic product data showed more inflationary pressure than previously thought. Silver also saw fall in the prices whereas in COME gold was up and silver was down. In energy counter, crude saw fresh buying. Crude prices rose, buoyed by an outage at a major refinery on the US East Coast and industry data that showed US crude stockpiles fell more than expected. Philadelphia Energy Solutions is expected to seek to permanently shut its oil refinery in the city after a massive fire caused substantial damage to the complex, as per the source. US crude stockpiles fell by 7.5 million barrels in the week ended June 21 to 474.5 million, compared with analyst expectations for a decline of 2.5 million barrels. Natural gas prices bounced back from the lower level but stability on upper levels is doubtful. Copper prices were on track for their weakest quarterly performance since the end of 2015, weighed down by demand fears from the U.S.-China trade war. Nickel saw some buying whereas, lead, zinc and aluminum were down on trade dispute issue.

Soyabean traded up on lower acreage issue. Key growing areas for soybean have seen rainfall significantly below average for monsoon season. Mustard saw some buying after a four week fall. Castor seeds sentiments were positive owing to fall in the acreage of the oilseed and tracking gains in key spot markets of Gujarat. Prices of castor seed rose in Gujarat's key markets today due to rising demand from domestic stockists amid a fall in arrivals. Jeera prices dropped; the reason being its exports have fallen due to sluggish demand from China and Bangladesh. Cardamom prices rose further. The various reasons such as absence of carry-over stocks, last year’s production loss and anticipation of a delayed production this year is being attributed to this rally.







SPOT PRICES (% change)




The government is soon going to launch new National Mission for Vegetable Oils to reduce reliance on hefty imports by promoting output of home-grown oilseeds, including palm oil. The imported cost of vegetable oil in India is around 73,000 crore rupees. So it is an urgent need to cut dependency on it. India, the world's top buyer, imports 14-15 mln tn of edible oil annually to meet domestic consumption of around 25 mln tn. Currently,the country does not produce enough edible oilto meet even half the requirement. So the farm ministry is working with government think tank NITI Aayog to devise ways to stem huge imports of edible oil in the country, and supportthe industry and domestic oilseed growers.

Palm oil accounts for 60% of the total edible oils imported annually, most of it from Indonesia and Malaysia. Most of the crude degummed soyoil is imported from Argentina, the world's third largest soybean producer, crude canola oil is purchased from Canada and crude sunflower oil is bought from Ukraine.

Measures under National Mission for Vegetable Oils to promote output of oilseeds

• There are many ways to curb imports such as levying cess on imports, increase base tariff, or increasing custom duties. But the mission will initially focus on providing subsidies on farm inputs and higher minimum support price.

• Procurement by state-run agencies will be pushed to encourage farmers to shift to oilseed crops.

• For the long term, the ministry is trying to add more area under oil palm plantation by announcing fair and remunerative price on fresh fruit bunches of oil palm at 8,000-8,500 rupees per ton. India has 325,000 ha under oil palm trees at present and it may grow to 350,000 ha in 2019-20 (Apr-Mar).

• However, of the total area under oil palm, fruit-bearing trees cover only 225,000 ha. The government aims to increase area under the plantation primarily in coastal areas and northeast.

• With new plantation, production may increase in next four to five years, which is the gestation period of the oil palm tree

• The government is also aiming to set up seed hubs in the country to provide good quality certified oilseed seeds to the farmers.

• The government is also aiming to set up seed hubs in the country to provide good quality certified oilseed seeds to the farmers.

According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, Import of vegetable oils during May 2019 decreased by 5% to 1,221,989 tons compared to 1,286,240 tons in May 2018, consisting 1,180,786 tons of edible oils and 41,203 tons of non-edible oils. However the overall import of vegetable oils during November 2018 to May 2019 is reported at 8,763,678 tons compared to 8,604,535 tons i.e. up by 2%.

Sharp Increased in Import of RBD Palmolien

India’s monthly refined edible oil imports hit a six-year high in May, due to a cut in customs duty by the Indian government under the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) between India and Malaysia. Effective since January 1, the Centre cut the overall import duty on crude palm oil (CPO) from Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the Association of the South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to 40 per cent from 44 per cent earlier, while that on refined edible oil (RBD or refined, bleached de-odorized palmolein) from Malaysia was slashed to 45 per cent and from other countries to 50 per cent. The earlier duty rate was 54 per cent irrespective of the source. This has flooded the domestic market with RBD palmolein from Malaysia and has hit domestic oilseed crushing mills and farmers hard.




Currency Table

News Flows of last week

24th JUN RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya quits six months before his term ends.
25th JUN FED chief warns against policy bending to “short term political interests”.
25th JUN US Consumer Confidence declined to lowest levels since 2017.
27th JUN Donald Trump lashes out at India, Japan, Germany on tariffs ahead of G20 summit.

Market Stance

Indian Rupee is heading to post weekly gain, level seen last in mid April this year. Precisely just a day ago Trump's tweet feeds started to complain about India's trade policies, President Trump met our PM at G20 summit with greetings on second term. Moreover Mr. Trump said the relation with India has not "ever been better than it is right now". Simultaneously Mr. Modi said that he will discuss with Trump on Iran, 5G, mobile communications, bilateral discussion and defense strategy. Although, Trump's tweet sent the gesture that India's import tariff is highest while comparing with developed countries. Indian Rupee was particularly experienced the upward momentum amid ease in political talks ahead of G20. Admittedly, flows in the interbank pushed Rupee to head north towards 69.00. Globally, recent comment by Fed officials to remains cautious for rate-cuts once again halted rally in Euro. From Brexit front, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are heading to one-off to become next UK PM due to be announced on 23rd July. Pound remains subdued as traders are waiting for fresh cues from Brexit development. Next week, US labor data will be key economic release where Fed officials will closely monitor before taking ratecut decisions. USDINR is likely to stay below 69.40 and move lower towards 68.80.

Economic gauge for the next week

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (JUL) contract closed at 69.36 on 27th Jun’19. The contract made its high of 69.9625 on 24th Jun’19 and a low of 69.32 on 27th Jun’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 69.82

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 35.95. One can sell at 69.53 for the target of 68.93 with the stop loss of 69.83.

EUR/INR (JUL) contract closed at 79.0925 on 27th Jun’19. The contract made its high of 79.7950 on 24th Jun’19 and a low of 79.0275 on 27th Jun’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 79.16

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.10. One can sell at 79.32 for a target of 78.72 with the stop loss of 79.62.

GBP/INR (JUL) contract closed at 88.2975 on 27th Jun’19. The contract made its high of 89.35 on 24th Jun’19 and a low of 88.18 on 27th Jun’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 88.72

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.41. One can sell at 88.55 for a target of 87.95 with the stop loss of 88.85.

JPY/INR (JUL) contract closed at 64.46 on 27th Jun’19. The contract made its high of 65.30 on 25th Jun’19 and a low of 64.3225 on 27th Jun’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 64.78

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.08. One can buy at 64.15 for a target of 64.75 with the stop loss of 63.85.




KPR Agrochem withdraws Rs 283-cr IPO.

Andhra Pradesh based agri-input company KPR Agrochem late evening on June 27 announced withdrawal of its initial public offering from capital market. The IPO issue was to open on June 28 with a price band at Rs 59-61 per share. "Selling shareholders and board of directors of KPR Agrochem have decided not to presently proceed with the formalities leading to opening of the IPO. We have been directed by the Issuer Company vide its letter dated June 26, 2019 to take steps to withdraw the issue of equity shares," the merchant banker said in its statement. "Hence, the initial public offering of KPR Agrochem stands withdrawn," it added. The IPO consisted a fresh issue aggregating up to Rs 210 crore and an offer for sale of 1.2 crore equity shares by promoters. The company had intended to use fresh issue proceeds for repayment of certain borrowings and additional working capital requirement. The book running lead manager to the Issue was PL Capital Markets, part of Prabhudas Lilladher group. KPR Agrochem is an agri-input company focused on manufacturing, distribution and retailing of a wide range of crop yield enhancing and protection products. In order to secure the supply of sulphuric acid, one of the key ingredients for company's various products, the company also ventured into manufacturing of sulphuric acid.

IndiaMART IPO subscribed over 36 times on final day of bidding

The initial public offering of IndiaMART InterMESH, an online marketplace for business products and services, was subscribed 36.16 times on the final day of bidding June 26. The Rs 475-crore IPO received bids for 9,73,85,775 shares against the total issue size of 26,92,824 shares, according to the NSE data. The qualified institutional buyers' book was subscribed close to 30.83 times, non-institutional investors 62.12 times and retail individual investors 13.37 times, according to merchant banking sources. The initial public offering (IPO) is for 48,87,862 equity shares, including anchor portion of 21,95,038 equity shares. Price range for the offer, which opened for bidding on Monday, was Rs 970-973 per share. Dinesh Agarwal, founder and managing director, IndiaMART InterMESH, said, "We are confident that together, we will deliver value for all stakeholders in the times to come and will continue to look forward to our increasing contribution towards the growth of the Indian economy and employment by use of technology."ICICI Securities Ltd, Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd and Jefferies India Pvt Ltd were the managers to the offer. The shares of the company are proposed to be listed on the BSE and the National Stock Exchange.





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Quantum Mutual Fund has launch Quantum India ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) Equity Fund

Quantum Mutual Fund has launch Quantum India ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) Equity Fund on June 21, which will remain open until July 5. The open-ended equity oriented scheme will invest in a basket of stocks with good environment, social and governance standards. ESG investing, a well-known concept outside India (Europe, US, Canada, Australia and Japan), has been gaining traction in the country. Not only Fund houses, but regulators are also pushing for good corporate governance practices, company disclosures, timely audits, and uniform accounting standards through circulars. In terms of asset allocation, Quantum Mutual Fund will invest at least 80 percent of its assets in equity and equity-related instruments of companies following ESG criteria, while the balance 20 percent will be in money market instruments and liquid schemes of mutual funds.

Sebi tightens regulations for troubled debt mutual funds

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has tightened rules for debt mutual funds in the wake of the recent credit crisis that led to the values of these schemes taking a hit. The regulator has made early redemptions from liquid funds more expensive and strengthened norms for debt mutual funds’ lending against shares to make these products safer for investors. Sebi also expressed its disapproval of the so-called standstill agreement that mutual funds have reached with the indebted Essel Group.

Mahindra Finance, Manulife in 51:49 JV for Mahindra AMC

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services subsidiary, Mahindra Asset Management Company, has entered in to 51:49 joint venture with global financial services group, Manulife. The joint venture with Manulife will be signed by Manulife Asset Management (Singapore) Pte Ltd. Toronto-headquartered Manulife, operates as John Hancock in the US, providing wealth and asset management, and life insurance services. As of March 31, the assets of Manulife stood at $849 billion (Rs 58.98 lakh crore). It largely has operations in Asia, Canada and the US. Anand Mahindra-promoted M&M Finance is the parent of Mahindra AMC, which is among the smaller asset management companies in India, with assets under management of a little under Rs 5,000 crore. Of this, Rs 1,600 core is equity funds, while the rest is debt funds.


  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Aditya Birla Sun Life Pharma & Healthcare Fund - Regular Plan (G)
  • Open-Ended
  • Growth
  • 20-Jun-2019
  • 04-July-2019
  • The scheme seeks to provides long term capital appreciation by investing in equity/equity related instruments of the companies in the Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare and Allied sectors in India.

  • Rs.5000/-
  • Mr. Mahesh Patil / Mr. Pranay Sinha
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Quantum India ESG Equity Fund - Regular (G)
  • Open-Ended
  • Growth
  • 21-Jun-2019
  • 05-July-2019
  • The scheme seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation by investing in share of companies that meet Quantums Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.

  • Rs.5000/-
  • Mr. Chirag Mehta / Ms. Sneha Joshi
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Reliance Fixed Horizon Fund - XLI - Series 12 (1116D) - Regular Plan (G)
  • Close ended
  • Growth
  • 25-Jun-2019
  • 9 -July-2019
  • The scheme seeks to generate returns and growth of capital by investing in a diversified portfolio of Central and State Government securities and Other fixed income/ debt securities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme with the objective of limiting interest rate volatility.
  • Rs.5000/-
  • Mr. Amit Tripathi



Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)
TAX Fund
Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully


Mr. S.c. Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group & President, Punjabi Bagh Friends Society) Celebrated Yoga Day on 21st June, 2019 On the International Yoga Day at Punjabi Bagh Club Lawn.



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