2019: Issue 699, Week: 2nd - 6th September

A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only)


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From The Desk Of Editor


n the week gone by, global market continued to remain cautious as global I recession worries from intensifying U.S.-China frictions and the spectre of a nodeal Brexit drove investors to safer harbours. Not only the equity market even the bond markets across the globe painted a grimmer picture, with yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries and 10-year German bunds yield both hitting record lows. The fall in global bond yields reflects a growing concern about the global growth. At his juncture stock markets expects more stimulus, notably from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. They are scheduled to meet next month.

Back at home, domestic markets too witnessed a volatile trade despite government has announced some surprises measure to boost the economy. In an effort to spur growth in the economy, the RBI accepted Bimal Jalan committee recommendations and approved surplus transfer, a sum of Rs 1,76,051 crore, to the government for the year 2018-19. In another development, the Union cabinet has relaxed Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) norms in several sectors including single-brand retail, allowing for more lenient local sourcing and better market access through online sales. Providing a fillip to PM Narendra Modi’s Digital India campaign, the cabinet has approved 26% FDI to digital media platforms. It also announced a Rs 6,268 crore subsidy for export of 6 million tonnes of sugar during the 2019-20 marketing year starting October in order to liquidate surplus domestic stock and help mills in clearing huge sugarcane arrears to farmers. On Friday, Finance minister has announced major banking reform and mega consolidation for public sector banks. After consolidation, there will now be 12 PSBs instead of 27 PSBs. Earlier government has consolidated two major banks namely SBI and Bank of Baroda. With global markets wary of darkening economic outlook, the domestic equity market will continue to witness volatile trade going forward. Going forward, more measures from the government sides are expected, to support the economy. Besides, factors such as global cues, the progress of monsoon, development in Trade talks, movement of rupee against the dollar, crude oil price and investments by foreign and domestic will be closely watched.

On the commodity market front, with some rebound in energy and other counters, CRB gave closing above 181 levels after a few back of downside. The U.S. dollar was higher, above 98 last week as U.S. economic growth slowed as expected and comments from China helped ease trade war tensions. Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to pursue a more aggressive path of policy easing. For the same reason, prices of the safe-haven gold traded lower. Gold traded lower whereas silver rally stole the show and it made a high of 47440 on MCX. Overall metals are scoring impressive gains in August, with gold poised for a fourth consecutive monthly rise and saw three week nonstop rally. Going forward, RBA Cash Rate Target, RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing ¸ISM Employment, ISM NonManufacturing/Services Composite, Change in Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, GDP of Australia and Switzerland, Unemployment Rate of Canada are few strong triggers, which may give direction to the commodity market.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.





• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approved the transfer of record Rs 1.76 lakh crore dividend and surplus reserves to the government, boosting Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led regime's prospect to stimulate the slowing economy without widening fiscal deficit.

• The government allowed 100 per cent foreign investment in coal mining and contract manufacturing, eased sourcing norms for single-brand retailers and approved 26 per cent overseas investment in digital media as itlooked to boost economic growth from a five-yearlow.


• Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has been granted final approval by the United States Food & Drug Administration (U.S. FDA) for Pimecrolimus Cream, 1%, a generic version of Elidel®1 Cream, 1%, of Bausch Health US, LLC. According to IQVIATM sales data for the 12 month period ending July 2019, the Elidel® Cream, 1% market2 achieved annual sales of approximately $198.8 million.

Realty/ Construction

• PNC Infratech has been declared the L1 (lowest) bidder for NHAI project of 'Construction of 31.7 km long Four Lane Bypass connecting NH-56 at km 17.400 and terminating near Behta Village Road under NHDP Phase-VII on EPC mode' namely 'Lucknow Ring Road Package I' for a quoted price of Rs. 1062.0 crore.


• Adani Green Energy signed a securities purchase agreementfor acquisition of 205 MW operating solar assets of Essel Green Energy and Essel Infraprojects. The assets are located in Punjab, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh. All the assets have long term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with various state electricity distribution companies. The portfolio is relativelyyoungwithaverageremainingPPAlifeofapproximately22years.

Oil & Gas

• Oil & Natural Gas Corpn has set up a Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) Programme of US$ 2 billion which will be listed on Singapore Stock Exchange. An EMTN Programme is an uncommitted facility and any drawdown thereof under this document would be subject to funding requirements. This is landmark achievement for ONGC as it is amongst select few corporates and India's first Oil & Gas public sector integrated energy major to set up an EMTN Programme.

• Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) will invest Rs 2 trillion over the next five to seven years. The company is also at an advanced stage of developing a new energy storage technology

• Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) plans to invest Rs 1,500-1,700 crore in building a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal at Krishnapatnam in Andhra Pradesh by 2022.

Information Technology

• Wipro announced the expansion of its strategic partnership with Google Cloud to accelerate cloud adoption and digital transformation for global enterprises. By collaborating with Google Cloud, Wipro will catalyse innovation for enterprises in industry verticals such as consumer goods, BFSI, semiconductor, and healthcare,through a 'business-first' strategy


• US gross domestic product increased by 2.0 percent in the second quarter compared to the previously reported 2.1 percent growth. The downward revision came in line with economist estimates.

• US pending home sales index tumbled by 2.5 percent to 105.6 in July after surgingupby2.8percentto108.3inJune.Thesteepdropcameasasurprise toeconomists,whohadexpectedpendingsales tocomeinunchanged.

• US initial jobless claims inched up to 215,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level of 211,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to climb to 215,000 from the 209,000 originally reported for the previous week.

• Industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent on month in July. That beat forecasts for a gain of 0.3 percent following the 3.3 percent drop in June.


Stocks *Closing Price Trend Date Trend Changed Rate Trend Changed SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing S/l
S&P BSE SENSEX 37333 UP 08.02.19 36546 36300 35300
NIFTY50 11023 UP 08.02.19 10944 10900 10600
NIFTY IT 16010 UP 21.07.17 10712 15200 14800
NIFTY BANK* 27428 UP 30.11.18 26863 - 27000
ACC 1520 DOWN 14.06.19 1549 1570 1600
BHARTIAIRTEL 347 UP 15.03.19 338 345 335
BPCL 355 UP 30.08.19 355 330 320
CIPLA 472 DOWN 02.08.19 516 500 510
SBIN 274 DOWN 02.08.19 308 295 305
HINDALCO 184 DOWN 17.05.19 192 195 200
ICICI BANK** 410 UP 02.11.18 355 400 390
INFOSYS 815 UP 14.12.18 706 770 750
ITC 246 DOWN 31.05.19 279 260 270
L&T 1328 DOWN 02.08.19 1370 1360 1390
MARUTI 6124 DOWN 26.04.19 6843 6100 6300
NTPC 122 DOWN 16.08.19 118 126 130
ONGC 121 DOWN 12.07.19 149 130 134
RELIANCE 1249 UP 16.08.19 1278 1220 1180
TATASTEEL 345 DOWN 10.05.19 487 370 380

*Nifty Bank has broken the support of 27700

**ICICIBANK has broken the support of 400

Closing as on 30-08-2019


1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.


Meeting Date Company Purpose
5-Sep-19 Urja Global Fund Raising/Other business matters
10-Sep-19 Crest Ventures Financial Results
Ex-Date Company Purpose
3-Sep-19 TVS Srichakra Dividend - Rs 40 Per Share
4-Sep-19 The India Cements Dividend - Rs 0.80 Per Share
5-Sep-19 ITDC Dividend - Rs 2.10 Per Share
6-Sep-19 Rail Vikas Nigam Dividend - Rs 0.09 Per Share
6-Sep-19 ChambalFertilizers&Chem. Dividend - Rs 2 Per Share
6-Sep-19 Dilip Buildcon Dividend - Re 1 Per Sh
9-Sep-19 GSFC Dividend - Rs 2.20 Per Share
11-Sep-19 National Aluminium Co. Dividend - Rs 1.25 Per Share
11-Sep-19 HeidelbergCement Dividend - Rs 3 Per Share
11-Sep-19 BHEL Dividend - Rs 1.20 Per Share
12-Sep-19 NBCC (India) Dividend - Rs 0.65 Per Share
12-Sep-19 HUDCO Dividend - Rs 0.15 Per Share
12-Sep-19 Indraprastha Gas Dividend - Rs 2.40 Per Share
12-Sep-19 Apollo Hospitals Ent. Dividend - Rs 6 Per Share
12-Sep-19 Finolex Industries Dividend - Rs 10 Per Share
13-Sep-19 Godfrey Phillips India Dividend - Rs 10 Per Share
16-Sep-19 Astral Poly Technik Bonus 1:4
17-Sep-19 Himadri Speciality Chem Dividend - Rs 0.15 Per Share
17-Sep-19 Ahluwalia Contracts (I) Dividend - Rs 0.30 Per Share
18-Sep-19 Engineers India Dividend - Rs 0.75 Per Share
19-Sep-19 HDFC Bank FV Split (Sub-Division) - From Rs 2 To Rs 1 Per Sh.
20-Sep-19 LT Foods Dividend - Rs 0.15 Per Share
20-Sep-19 PTC India Fin. Ser. Dividend - Rs 0.8 Per Share





Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis



Target Price:330



Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 282.90/177.50
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 17318.20
EPS (Rs.) 6.89
P/E Ratio (times) 39.85
P/B Ratio (times) 2.37
Dividend Yield (%) 0.91
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• Tata Global Beverages is a beverage and branded food business company engaged in trading, production and distributionoftea, coffeeandwater.It commands20% market share in tea segment in India & expects to continue to grow above industry led by new launches. It would benefit from a shift from unorganized to organized sales on the back of premiumisation and strongmarketingcampaigns.

India business witnessed volume growth of 8% aided by double digit growth in Tata Tea Premium and Agni. Recently its launched Spice Mix revenues surged 50%+ YoY. Value growth in Q1FY20 was 7% as premium brands like Chakra witnessed marginal de-growth due to a market slowdown in Tamil Nadu due to acute water crisis whereas economy brands such as Agni and Elaichi posted robust growth.

• For quarter ended June 2019, consolidated total income from operation inclined 8% to Rs 4,149.82 crore, due to improvement in cement realization, operational efficiencies and supply chain efficiency improvement. The company's cement sales volumes were flat at 7.20 million tonnes during the quarter, while cement realization improved by 7.2% to Rs 5,335 per ton.

• Starbucks store count was at 151 stores (5 new store additions in Q1FY20). Topline saw strong growth of ~23% in Q1FY20. The management highlighted that same- store sales growth (SSG) for Starbucks has been robust.

• Consolidated sales increased 5.2% YoY to Rs. 1,897.1 crore,mainlydrivenby26%growthinthenon-branded business. The tea business reported moderate growth of 4% whereas the coffee business declined 3%. Operating margins witnessed a slight improvement of 16 bps to 14%.The company also entered the ReadyTo Drink and cold beverage segments and is garnering a positive response.In India,the trend suggests a slow& steadyshifttowardsgreentea.

• Recently it has announced of acquiring branded food businesses from Tata Chemicals Ltd in an all-

stock transaction that is aimed at creating a consumer business company with revenues of Rs. 9100 crores. The management expects to complete the merger of consumer business in latter part of this year. Also, it has acquired branded tea business of Dhunseri Tea and Industries.


• Consumption Slowdown

• Rise in Minimum Procurement Prices of tea at auction


The management ofthe company has clearly highlighted its intentiontobeabroader FMCGcompany inIndia.With recently announced merger with Tata Chemicals, acquisition of branded tea business of Dhunseri tea and the JV between the PepsiCo India, it is all set to scale up its network and business to capture opportunities in long term. Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 330 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a currentP/Exof39.85timesFY20EEPSof8.28.



Target Price:311



Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 313.80/212.10
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 13320.29
EPS (Rs.) 19.73
P/E Ratio (times) 14.05
P/B Ratio (times) 1.48
P/BDividend Yield (%) 1.80
Stock Exchange BSE


Investment Rationale

• The Company has an aggregate installed generation capacity of 3,703 MW comprising of 2,730 MW of gasbased capacity, 611 MW of renewable capacity and 362MWof coal-basedcapacity.Ithasanadditional841 MW of renewable projects under construction and on completion of the said projects; the aggregate renewable capacity would be 1,452 MW and the aggregatetotalcapacitywouldbeover4,540MW.

• The company has earmarked capex (capital expenditure) of Rs 250-300 crore, with this company plans to increase capacity this year. The company has just done a couple of acquisitions in South Africa, and is looking at doing something "substantial" in India going forward.

• The Company further strengthened its leadership position in Distribution business and has been a) awarded the Distribution license for Dholera SIR Area in Gujarat and b) appointed the Distribution Franchisee by MSEDCL for the Shil, Mumbra and Kalwa areas in Thane District in Maharashtra.

During the quarterthe regulator approved a long term power procurement arrangement for 278 MW between the Company's Licensed Distribution Business and UNOSUGEN Power Plant (capacity of 382.5 MW). The approval, for the balance life of the plant of 19 years, will enable steady base load operations for UNOSUGEN plant,resulting in recovery ofprojectloaninterestanddepreciationthereon.

• The consolidated debt to equity ratio as at the end of FY 2018-19 was 1.14 (FY 2017-18 – 1.24).

• Consolidated sales of Torrent Power were up by 6% to Rs 3736.13 crore and Profit saw a growth of 22% to Rs. 276.59 crore for the quarter ended June 2019 driven by Increase in contribution from merchant power sales during the quarter; Higher profits from Renewables business; Improved performance of licensed and franchised distribution businesses on back of reduction in T&D

losses, higher regulated ROE in licensed distribution business & favorable resolution of a regulatory dispute.


• Risk of regulatory interventions

• Macro-economic risks


The company is reducing itsdebt equity ratiowith a focus on improvement of efficiency. Moreover,improvementin T&D,focus on green power project and commissioning of renewable power plants would give good strength to the company. Government’s policy push like emphasis on clean coal technologies, replacing old plants with new super critical plants, policy on automatic transfer of coal linkage, stricter environmental norms and emphasis on digitalization will go a long way in reenergizing the coal based power generation sector. Thus,itis expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.311 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/E of 14.05x and FY20EPSofRs.22.11.

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.



Beat the Street-Technical Analysis

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited (ICICIPRU)

The stock closed at Rs 424.60 on 30th August, 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 277.35 on 04th Feb 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 427.30 on 30th August 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 367.58

As we can see on chart that stock is forming an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly chart, which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has given the breakout of same by registered gains around 10% and also has managed to close above the same so follow up buying may continue for coming days so one can initiate long in the range of 415-418 levels for the upside target of 450-460 levels with SL below 390.

Petronet LNG Limited (PETRONET)

The stock closed at Rs 266.85 on 30th August, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 203.40 on 11th Dec 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 267.80 on 30th Aug 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 235.54

The Stock has formed an “Inverted Head and shoulder” pattern on weekly charts and has given the breakout of same during last week. Apart from this, stock has formed a long Marubozu candlestick pattern on weekly chart and managed to close on week’s high along with volume so follow up buying may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 259-261 levels for the upside target of 295-300 levels with SL below 245.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Indian markets begin September series on a positive note with Nifty once again reclaiming 11000 levels. Sharp recovery was seen from lower levels with HDFC twins, ITC and ICICIBANK emerged as top contributors. From derivative front, put writers were seen active in 10900 & 11000 strikes while marginal call writing was observed at 11100 call strike. From technical front, 10900-10850 zone should act as key support for Nifty while on higher side 11150 should be key resistance. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was up and closed at 15.37% while that for put options closed at 16.32%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 16.43% and is expected to remain volatile. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.25, which indicates OTM put writing. For coming week, we expect that as far we are holding in broader range of 10850-11150, the volatility is likely to grip the market and some more wild moves are expected in coming sessions. However, on higher side anytime closing above 11150 should trigger fresh short covering, which could move index towards 11250 levels as well.












Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering




The overall trend of turmeric futures (Sept) is bearish, but currently it is holding on to the support near 6730 levels. In days to come, the counter may break the support level & witness correction towards 6600-6550 levels as it may come under the pressure of sluggish demand in spot markets and expectations of a bigger crop in the 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) season. On the demand side, exports to Iran have nearly come to a standstill since May following the expiry of the US sanctions waiver to India for six months. Without the Iranian market, Indian turmeric growers do not have any big orders in hand. In Nizamabad, the benchmark market in Telangana, the finger variety was sold around Rs.6,600 per 100 kg, while the bulb variety was at Rs.6,300. Since past two weeks, jeera futures (Sept) is facing resistance near 17100 levels, and in days to come we can see more weakness till 16500-16400 levels. The outlook is seen bearish on hopes of rise in area under the spice during the upcoming Rabi season. As crop prospects are expected to be better in the upcoming Rabi season due to favorable rains, farmers may offload their produce before the new season starts in October. Additionally, the spot market is witnessing tepid demand as rains in key growing regions led to high moisture content in the spice. Dhaniya futures (Sept) is expected to consolidate in the broader range of 5800-6100. Prices also declined due to ample of carryover stocks and as good rains in the key growing regions could encourage farmers to increase sowing area under the spice.


Bullion counter may continue to remain on stronger note continuing the recent gains on safe haven buying as factors such as dovish stance by key central banks, Brexit concerns, tumbling US treasury yields coupled with increased uncertainty regarding U.S.-China trade dispute are keeping the sentiment upbeat. Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank's next president, stated that the bank still has room to cut interest rates if needed, although this may pose financial stability risk. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest since mid-2016 at 1.443% recently. U.S. Treasury yields tumbled to multi-year lows as the latest escalation in a U.S.-China trade war hit confidence is the global economy and boosted demand for safe-haven bonds. Gold(Oct) can trade higher and can test 39800 in MCX while taking support near 38000 while silver(Dec) can test 49500 while taking support near 47000. Silver outperformed gold as gold silver ratio plunged lower from above 90 to 83 recently. The fed funds futures market now points to a 74% chance of at least a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Concerns are growing over the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal. In a dramatic move recently Britain's new Prime Minister Boris Johnson set in motion the suspension of the UK Parliament - which means MPs have much less time to debate Brexit, the process of the UK leaving the European Union. Parliament is to be suspended for five weeks ahead of 31 October, the day the UK is due to leave the EU.


Soybean futures (Sept) may regain its strength towards 3900 levels, taking support near 3700 levels. The sentiments are optimistic due to concerns over the crop. Failure to spray insecticides on soyabean has hampered growth of standing crops in some pockets of Indore, Dewas and Ujjain. Lack of flowering in crops may sharply reduce output of soybean in one of the prominent cultivating regions of state that produce about 70 per cent of the soybean production in India. The excessive water in farms reduces level of oxygen leading to mineral deficiency in plants while higher ethylene levels ha hamper growth of crop. Even many farmers have reported a significant drop in flowering in soybean. On the CBOT, U.S soybean futures (Sept) is expected to take support near $8.40 a bushel & the downside may remain capped. The optimism has again come back to the market over U.S.-China trade talks scheduled in September. The traders are also awaiting details about a giant package related to ethanol that U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration is planning to announce. Soy oil futures (Sept) will possibly hold on to the three weeks support near 750, while continue to face resistance near 765 levels. The stronger rupee against dollar, may keep the gains capped, while on the contrary the anticipated demand ahead of festivities may limit the downside. CPO futures (Sept) may consolidate in the range of 555-570 levels & maintain its upside bias. The market participants would be closely watching the data on export of the commodity by Malaysia during August, to be released by private cargo surveyors early next week.


Crude oil prices may witness further recovery on falling inventories and hurricane concerns in US but worries about a slowdown in economic growth due to the U.S.-China trade war have kept a lid on price gains. Inventories at the nation’s main delivery hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI futures are priced, slumped in penultimate week by nearly 2 million barrels to their lowest since December. The approach of Hurricane Dorian toward Florida raised fears that offshore U.S. crude producers may slow output if the storm passes into the Gulf of Mexico. China’s commerce ministry stated that the world’s two biggest economies were discussing the next round of face-to-face trade talks scheduled for September, but hopes for progress hinged on whether Washington could create favourable conditions. Crude oil may take support near 3750 levels while taking resistance near 4100 levels. Natural gas may witness further recovery as it can test 175 levels while taking support near 155 levels. U.S. natural gas futures rose to hit a one-month peak after a government report showed a weekly U.S. storage build broadly in line with estimates and on expectations for increased cooling demand due to warmerthan-normal weather. Meanwhile possible supply disruptions related to Hurricane Dorian can also support the prices at lower levels. The hurricane is closing in on Puerto Rico and is currently rated a category 1, storm with sustainable winds of 75-miles an hour. The storm is expected to increase in strength as it moves west north west, and could hit the east coast of Florida as a category 4, storm.


Cotton futures (Oct) may trade sideways in the range of 19400-19800 levels. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture has maintained its estimate for India's cotton production for 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) at 37.2 mln bales, the agency said in a report. The acreage under the fibre in the ongoing kharif season in seen at 12.7 mln ha, slightly higher from 12.6 mln ha sown last year. The view on average cotton yield for 2019-20 has been lowered to 497 kg per ha, compared with 505 kg estimated a month ago. On the global front, all eyes would be on the hopeful tone on trade relations with the United States as Beijing and Washington during the discussion in the next round of face-to-face talks scheduled for September. Guar seed futures (Sept) is expected to take support near 4165 levels, while the upside may get extended towards 4350 levels. Rajasthan, the largest producer of guar, has recorded a 7% on-year drop in the area under the crop, as the sowing window in the ongoing kharif season has almost come to an end, data by the state farm ministry showed. The bullishness is likely to prevail in castor seed futures (Sept) and it is expected to take support near 5700 levels & rally to test 5800- 5900 levels. A smaller crop from last year and the fact that arrival of the new crop is at least six months away is increasingly leading to a vacuum in supply pipeline. The daily arrivals of the commodity have fallen gradually to 15,000- 20,000 bags (1 bag = 75 kg), from 50,000-55,000 bags at this time a year ago.


Base metal counter is expected to trade on mixed path except Nickel, which may improve further on supply concerns. Copper may trade sideways as it can find support near 440 levels while facing resistance near 452 levels. China’s Jiangxi Copper Co produced 749,300 tonnes of refined copper cathode in January-June, up 3.5% from a year earlier, and 102,000 tonnes of copper concentrate during the period, up 0.2% year-on-year. Lack of any clear moves to resolve the protracted U.S.-China trade conflict can weigh on the demand outlook for the red metal. Meanwhile, Lead may also remain muted in narrow range of 150-160 levels. Zinc may witness recovery towards as it can test 188 levels while taking support near 180 levels. Nickel prices can move with upside bias as it can test 1280 levels while taking support near 1150 levels. Shanghai nickel prices hit a record high, as a waste spill at a nickel plant in Papua New Guinea sparked fear of some supply shortage. The premium for cash nickel over the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has spiked to a 10-year high of $99 a tonne, signalling tight nearby supply. Nickel inventories in LME-approved warehouses have been increasing slightly in August, but are hovering around a six-year low level, while ShFE nickel stocks rose to their highest since June 2018 last week. Aluminium may trade with sideways to weak bias as it can take support near 135 levels while facing resistance near 143 levels. China Hongqiao, the world’s biggest aluminium producer, cut its 2019 production guidance by up to 300,000 tonnes, or almost 5%.





NICKEL MCX (SEP) contract closed at Rs. 1166.00 on 29th Aug’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 1184.50 on 30th Aug’19 and a low of Rs. 974.10 on 29th Jul’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1040.00. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 81.062.

One can buy near Rs. 1180 for a target of Rs. 1300 with the stop loss of Rs. 1130.

NATURAL GAS MCX (SEP) contract closed at Rs. 165.60 on 29th Aug’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 188.00 on 29th May’19 and a low of Rs. 144.60 on 5th Aug’19. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 159.20. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.760.

One can buy near Rs. 158 for a target of Rs. 176 with the stop loss of Rs. 149.

DHANIYA NCDEX (SEP) contract was closed at Rs. 5939.00 on 29th Aug’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 7397.00 on 16th Jul’19 and a low of Rs. 5756.00 on 26th Jul’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6514.20. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 36.317.

One can buy above Rs. 6025 for a target of Rs. 6600 with the stop loss of Rs 5750.




• NCDEXhas modified the name of Guar Gum (Symbol: GUARGUM5) to Guar Gum Refined Splits effective from Sept 03, 2019 in all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts.

• MCX has partially modified in the contract specifications viz.’tolerance limit’ in delivery unit of Lead Mini (1MT) futures contracts of 1 MT with tolerance limit of + / - 10% to + / - 15%.

• MCX has introduced staggered delivery of 5 trading days in cotton, mentha oil & RBD palmolein from October 2019 onwards & in cardamom, castor seed, pepper from November onwards.

• The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has speed up the listing of styrene, liquefied petroleum gas, live pig and dry chili futures as well as iron ore options.

• The Steel Users Federation of India has signed a MoU with the BSE to help the later launch futures trading in steel.

• China has partially lifted restrictions on imports of gold, loosening curbs that had stopped an estimated 300-500 tonnes of the metal from entering the country since May.

Indonesia's nickel miners association (APNI) stated that it will continue asking the government to stick to its 2022 timetable for a nickel ore export ban.

• Chilean miner Antofagasta Plc reported a 44% jump in first-half profit, benefiting from higher copper sales.

• China's primary aluminium output defied low prices to rise for a second straight month to a record high in December as falling alumina costs boosted margins.


With some rebound in energy and other counters, CRB gave closing above 181 levels after a few back of downside. Upside in dollar index though limited the upside. The U.S. dollar was higher, above 98 last week as U.S. economic growth slowed as expected and comments from China helped ease trade war tensions. Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to pursue a more aggressive path of policy easing. For the same reason, prices of the safe-haven gold traded lower. Gold traded lower whereas silver rally stole the show and made a high of 47440 on MCX. Overall metals scored impressive gains in August, with gold poised for a fourth consecutive monthly rise and saw three week nonstop rally. Energy counter gave some strong performance and oil saw biggest weekly gains since early July, boosted by a decline in U.S inventories and a looming hurricane in Florida, while new signs of trade talks between the United States and China emerged. The approach of Hurricane Dorian toward Florida has raised fears that offshore U.S. crude producers may shutter output, if the storm passes into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Worries about a slowdown in economic growth due to the trade war between the United States and China and the impact on oil demand, kept a lid on price gains. Natural gas prices were at their highest level in a month and are up about 10% from a multi-year low earlier in August. Natural gas prices and related ETFs continued to burn up as traders braced for possible disruptions to normal supply with Hurricane Dorian expected to intensify and make landfall over Florida. Base metals performed mix, nickel and lead prices strengthened, copper and zinc were sideways while aluminum became weaker.

In oil seeds pack, only soyabean futures gained up rest of the commodities saw some selling pressure. The overall trend of soyabean is up due to concerns about the crop in parts of Maharashtra. Mustard was down on weak demand from oil millers amid steady arrivals. Rising area under kharif oilseeds and favourable weather conditions is also weighing on the sentiment. In spices, turmeric, cardamom and dhaniya all traded weak, it was only Jeera futures which gave some buying opportunities to the traders owing to steady demand from overseas buyers. Dhaniya futures were under pressure due to weak international demand for India demand when Russia, Ukraine and Bulgaria are delivering their produce at lower price. Pulses traded lower. In news, the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation rejected all the bids it received from traders for purchase of chana in the e-auction. Castor saw some good gain on technical bounce back.







SPOT PRICES (% change)



Kharif crops Sowing ........on recovery mode

After a weak start in June, the mid- monsoon months have posted a strong come back to compensate the 33% rainfall deficit and cross the average mark by 2% as on August 21. Rainfall in August has filled up major reservoirs with 25% more water than the 10- year average and finally improved sowing. The revival in monsoon has changed the farm situation that looked grim in June when authorities were planning drought-relief measures as rainfall was one-third less than normal and reservoirs were depleting. Now the deficit in crop planting is fast reducing since the last 30 days. However, according to the farm ministry data, sowing of crops in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) kharif season were so far 4.2% lower on year at 92.6 mln ha.

The Major concern remains around the sowing of paddy, a water intensive crop, is lagging nearly 11% in this season. Paddy acreage is at 30.14 mln ha so far against 33.84 mln ha covered during the same period of 2018.

Although area under pulses was at 12.09 mln ha so far, down from 12.53 mln ha sown a year ago, the data showed. However, area under kharif pulses is higher than the normal area forthe season of 11.98 mln ha and the current weatheris favourable for higher yield of most kharif crops this season. The fall in oilseed acreage is less than 1% on year at 16.36 mln ha while area under cereals was largely unchanged at 15.9 mln ha.

The sowing of key kharif crops compared with the year-ago level:

Sowing of all major kharif crops lagged on year due to a delay in the arrival of monsoon over most parts of the country. Rainfall in July is crucial for sowing of kharif crops as those sown beyond early August tend to have lower yields. The India Meteorological Department sees rainfall in August to be at 99% of the long-period average. August rains are crucial for kharif crops sown earlier as sufficient rains may lead to a higher yield. So far in August, rains have been 35.4% higher than the normal for the period, according to data from the weather bureau. Excess rainfall in some regions is a positive from the view of reservoir and groundwater level but could destroy the production of certain crops.

In April, the government had set 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) food grain production target at a record 291.1 mln tn, nearly 3% higher than last year's output of 283.4 mln tn.




Currency Table

News Flows of last week

26th AUG Trump agreed with PM Modi that Kashmir is a bilateral issue at G7 meeting.
27th AUG RBI okays Rs. 1.76 lakh crore surplus transfer to government.
28th AUG UK parliament may extend recess time till 14th October
29th AUG China reiterates that it opposes escalation of a trade war.

Market Stance

Indian Rupee lost a quarter percent this week although domestic currency managed to retreat from its lowest level of below 72.00 to a dollar mark after RBI decided to transfer a sum of 1,76,051 crore to the Government comprising of 1,23,414 crore of surplus for the year 2018-19 and 52,637 crore of excess provisions identified as per the revised Economic Capital Framework. The announcement of the transfer comes after government is facing mounting pressure to take measures to stimulate the faltering economy after four consecutive quarters of decelerating growth amid cool-off in trade conflicts between US-China. News came out from the Chinese Commerce Ministry that Chinese delegation may visit US next month also supported the domestic unit. Rupee has depreciated more than 3 percent this month in tandem with Renminbi's rout when it fell below 7.00 against US dollar on August the 5th. From the major pairs, sterling tumbled once again after Boris Johnson on Wednesday proposed suspending the UK parliament for at least a month to curtail efforts by MPs to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.Shifts in the options market, show expectations for sterling volatility have hit their highest level since the start of the year. Additionally euro fell briefly below 1.1080 to a dollar after nominated ECB would-be chief Ms Lagarde stated that euro zone has not hit lower bound of interest rate. Next week important economic releases from US jobs numbers along with ISM manufacturing will guide the further move in major pairs.

USDINR is likely to stay within the range of 71.40 and 72.25 in the next week.

Economic gauge for the next week

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (SEP) contract closed at 71.9750 on 29thAug’19.The contract made its high of 72.5275 on 26th Aug’19 and a low of 71.7025 on 27th Aug’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheUSD/INR is currently at 71.63

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 64.45. One can sell below 71.70 for the target of 71.10 with the stop loss of 72.

EUR/INR (SEP) contract closed at 79.8575 on 29th Aug’19. The contract made its high of 81.0350 on 26th Aug’19 and a low of 79.68 on 28th Aug’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 79.79

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.31. One can sell at 80 for a target of 79.40 with the stop loss of 80.30.

GBP/INR (SEP) contract closed at 87.8625 on 29thAug’19.The contract made its high of 89.1425 on 26th Aug’19 and a low of 87.7225 on 28th Aug’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheGBP/INR is currently at 87.44

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.71. One can sell at 88.05 for a target of 87.45 with the stop loss of 88.35.

JPY/INR (SEP) contract closed at 67.8075 on 29th Aug’19. The contract made its high of 68.9650 on 26th Aug’19 and a low of 67.75 on 29th Aug’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 67.50

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.68. One can sell at 67.85 for a target of 67.25 with the stop loss of 68.15.




IRCTC files Rs 600-crore IPO papers with Seb

Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for an initial public offer. The railways' tourism and catering arm plans to offload about two crore equity shares of the face value of Rs 10 each through an offer for sale by the government. The IPO is estimated to be worth about Rs 500-600 crore. IDBI Capital Markets & Securities, SBI Capital Markets and YES Securities (India) are the managers to the offer. IRCTC is the only entity authorised by the Indian railways to provide catering services to railways, online railway tickets and packaged drinking water at railway stations and trains in India, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). The CPSE has also diversified into other business segments like e-catering, executive lounges and budget hotels. IRCTC operates one of the most transacted websites,‘www.irctc.co.in', in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. The company's shares are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE

The Park Hotels gearing up for a 2020 D-Street check-in

Luxury boutique hotel chain The Park Hotels, owned by Kolkata-based diversified conglomerate Apeejay Surrendra Group, has kick started preliminary work for an initial public offer in 2020 and has appointed advisors for the proposed listing. The Paul family-owned group's first hotel opened on the eponymous Park Street in Kolkata in 1967. It has interests in tea, shipping, logistics, real estate and financial services. It also backs the popular Oxford Bookstores and Flury's tea-cafe.





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Mutual fund industry eyes Rs 100 lakh cr AUM, 10 cr investor base in next decade: AMFI

The mutual fund industry is eyeing a four-fold rise in AUM to Rs 100 lakh crore from existing Rs 25 lakh crore and increase in investor base to 10 crore from current 2 crore over the next decade, according to AMFI-BCG vision document. According to the latest edition of the AMFI-CRISIL fact book, between April 2016 – when the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) started disclosing monthly SIP contributions – and July 2019, the SIP (systematic investment plans) mode has helped rake in a significant Rs 2.30 lakh crore, nearly 23 per cent of the increase of Rs 10 lakh crore in assets under management (AUM) of the industry, AMFI said. This is also reflective of almost three times growth in the number of SIP accounts to 27.3 million from 10 million over this period, the release said. Besides, annual contribution through SIP witnessed increase in contribution by individual investors from Rs 44,000 crore in fiscal 2016-17 to nearly Rs 93,000 crore in 2018-19.

MFs cut investment to NBFCs but hike exposure to G-secs, T-bills in April-July

According to data from CARE Ratings, total exposure to NBFCs fell to 14 percent from 14.9 percent while exposure to government securities went up to 5.1 percent in July 2019 from 3.7 percent in April 2019. Since G-Secs are issued by the government, it makes them the safest form of investment (as far as credit quality is concerned; though they are more liquid and therefore volatile). Also, falling interest rates benefit debt funds, but particularly long duration funds. Further, SEBI has told fund houses that liquid funds must invest atleast 20 percent in liquid assets like government securities. The data also reveals that corporate debt and commercial papers were the two main avenues for deployment of funds by mutual funds and it accounted for around 54 percent of AMU in debt. Segments which witnessed a decline in share were corporate debt (others) from 22.2 percent to 20.8 percent, CP-others 22.1 percent to 19.1 percent, CDs from 15 to 11.1 percent. The asset types which witnessed an improvement besides government securities were T-bills, CBLOs (collaterised borrowing and lending obligations) and other money market instruments. The securities that have a tenure less than a year are called treasury bills, while money market instruments include commercial papers and certificates of deposit. Currently, 44-mutual funds manage Rs 24.5 lakh crore of assets under management (AUM).

Maturity of SBI Debt Fund Series B - 43 (1100 Days)

SBI Mutual Fund has announced the maturity date of SBI Debt Fund Series B - 43 (1100 Days) on September 03, 2019.

Exit Load changes for DSPArbitrage Fund

DSP Mutual Fund has decided to change the Exit Load of DSP Arbitrage Fund from 0.25% for redemption within 30 days to For units in excess of 10% of the investment, 0.25% will be charged for redemption within 30 days with effect from September 02, 2019.

Exit Load changes for Axis Corporate Debt Fund

Axis Mutual Fund has decided to change the Exit Load of Axis Corporate Debt Fund from For units in excess of 10% of the investment,1% will be charged for redemption within 365 days to Nil with effect from August 30, 2019.

Exit Load changes for ITI Arbitrage Fund

ITI Mutual Fund has decided to change the Exit Load of ITI Arbitrage Fund from 0.25% for redemption within 30 days to Nil with effect from August 20, 2019.


  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • ITI Long Term Equity Fund - Regular Plan (G)
  • Open-Ended
  • Growth
  • 15-Jul-2019
  • 14-Oct-2019
  • The Scheme seeks to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity related securities.
  • Rs.5000/-
  • Pradeep Gokhale / George Heber Joseph



Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)
TAX Fund
Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully


Krishna Janmashtami Celebration held on Friday, 23rd August, 2019 at SMC Head Office, New Delhi.

Mr. S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) during the Awareness Program on Sensitizing School Children for keeping 'River Yamuna Clean' held on Tuesday 20th August, 2019 at Ryan International School Noida Extension

Mr. D K Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Investments and Senior VP, PHDCCI) during call on meeting with Shri. Mansukh L Mandaviya (Hon'ble Minister of State, Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers, Govt. of India) held on Monday, 26th August, 2019 at Transport Bhawan, New Delhi.



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