Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, markets across the globe remained volatile as investors fretted about the pace of monetary policy tightening after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is "strongly committed" to controlling inflation. Meanwhile, data is signaling strength in the U.S. economy and this has prompted investors to bet on a 75-basis-point interest rate hike by the Fed in the upcoming meeting. The European Central Bank made its largest-ever interest rate increase Thursday, following the US Federal Reserve and other central banks in a global stampede of rapid rate hikes meant to snuff out record inflation that is squeezing consumers and pushing Europe toward recession. Meanwhile, China's exports and imports lost momentum in August as surging inflation crippled overseas demand and new Covid curbs and heatwaves disrupted output, reviving downside risks for the shaky economy. Exports grew rose 7.1 per cent last month compared with growth of 18 per cent in July. Imports rose only 0.3 per cent in August from 2.3% in the month prior. This led to a narrower trade surplus of $79.39 billion, compared with a $101.26 billion surplus in July.

Back at home, rotational buying across sectors combined with steady foreign flows has supported the domestic markets. With India posting a 13.5% jump in gross domestic product for the April-June quarter from a year earlier and expanding bank credit at a similar pace, market sentiments have got boosted. Also easing crude oil prices oil prices supported the market sentiments. Besides, Goods and services tax collections remained robust too, potentially giving the government more ammunition to support economic growth. India recently overtook the United Kingdom to become the fifth largest economy in the world. On Wednesday, Moody’s reaffirmed a stable outlook for India and noted that the country’s credit profile reflected important characteristics such as its sizeable diversified economy with high growth potential, relatively robust external position and stable domestic financing base for government debt. Meanwhile, India’s merchandise exports declined 1.15% to $33 billion and the trade deficit more than doubled to $28.68 billion as imports rose by 37%. Going forward market will continue to track each development from domestic as well as global.

On the commodity front, CRB saw a fall for second week on surge in DXY amid some weak data. Dollar index rose to a fresh 24-year high as against the Japanese yen as traders anticipate further aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Bullion counter witnessed value buying from the lower levels as DXY retreated on 75bps interest rate hike by ECB. Gold and silver are likely to trade in a range of 49500- 51500 and 52000- 56500 levels. Supply of aluminium and other metals is tight and inventories are low, but the market is more focused on weakening demand and the rising dollar. China has given indication to increase the pace of stimulus measures in the third quarter, after the economy barely expanded in the second quarter; may give some support. Energy counter will trade in a range. GDP, Employment Change, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, BoE Interest Rate Decision and Unemployment Rate of UK, New Yuan Loans of China, Inflation Rate of Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index of Germany and Euro Area, PPI, Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel of US, GDP of New Zealand, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Australia, Core Inflation Rate of Euro area and many more important Data and events scheduled this week which will give direction to the commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001857. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • According to a survey results from S&P Global, India's service sector growth bounced back strongly in August, led by strong rises in new orders, output and employment. The services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 57.2 in August from 55.5 July. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Construction
  • PNC Infratech has signed a concession agreement for a HAM project with NHAI for bid project cost of Rs 1,458 crore. This road project in Uttar Pradesh is to be constructed in 24 months, upon declaration of appointed date and operated for 15 years, post construction.
Automobile/ Auto Ancillary
  • TVS Motor Company launched the all-new 2022 TVS Apache RTR 180 and TVS Apache RTR 160 motorcycles today. They now come packaged with new exciting styling and feature updates for an uncompromised ride experience. The power increase coupled with weight reduction of 2 kgs in Apache RTR 160 and 1 kg in Apache RTR 180 has resulted in an enhanced power-to-weight ratio for both motorcycles, offering an unravelling riding experience.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra will drive in its first electric sports utility vehicle - XUV 400 - early next year. The company globally unveiled the five-seater model which comes with a driving range of 456 km (ARAI certified) on a single charge and can attain 0-100 km per hour acceleration in 8.3 seconds.
  • Tata Motors launched the country’s first CNG truck in the medium and heavy commercial (M&HCV) vehicle segment in the 28- and 19-tonne nodes.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Dr Reddy's Laboratories announced the launch of Lenalidomide Capsules, a therapeutic equivalent generic version of REVLIMID® (lenalidomide) Capsules approved by U. S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) in the U.S. market. With this volume-limited launch, Dr. Reddy's is eligible for first-to-market, 180 days of generic drug exclusivity for Lenalidomide Capsules in 2.5 mg and 20 mg strengths.
Power
  • Tata Power, the Tata Group's utility firm Tata Power Renewable Energy, will set up a 100 MW solar power plant for Viraj Profile in Maharashtra. Viraj Profile (VPPL) is a stainless steel manufacturer, which owns and operates a plant located at Tarapur at Nandgaon.
  • Suzlon Energy has won an order to set up 180.6 MW wind energy project from Sembcorp's arm Green Infra Wind Energy Ltd. Suzlon will install 86 Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) with a Hybrid Lattice Tubular (HLT) tower and a rated capacity of 2.1 MW each. The project is located at Kanakagiribad, Bagalkot in Karnataka, and is expected to be commissioned in 2024.
  • Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd (KPTL) said the company and its international subsidiaries have secured new orders worth Rs 1,345 crore.
Oil & Gas
  • Reliance Industries has acquired a majority stake of 79.4 per cent in US-based SenseHawk Inc through primary infusion and secondary purchase, for $ 32million.
  • NTPC Ltd. has acquired the stressed Jhabua thermal project (600Mw) of Gautam Thapar-owned Avantha Group, through the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) process.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US durable goods orders edged down by less than a tenth of a percent in July after surging by a revised 2.2 percent in June. Economists had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.6 percent compared to the 2.0 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.
  • The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in August, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank showed with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.0. That's down from 52.1 in July, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50.
  • UK retail sales volumes rose by 0.3 per cent in July this year following a fall of 0.2 per cent in June. Sales volumes were 2.3 per cent above their February 2020 levels, but down over the past year. Clothing stores sales volumes fell by 1.2 per cent in July, following a fall of 3.9 per cent in June this year.
  • Hong Kong’s Consumer price inflation rose to a 7-month high of 1.9 percent in July from 1.8 percent in June. This was just below the expected rate of 2.0 percent. The latest upturn in inflation was largely driven by a 15.1 percent surge in charges for electricity, gas, and water.
  • Hong Kong's merchandise exports decreased for the third straight month in July, while imports fell for the first time in four months. Exports fell 8.9 percent year-on-year in July, faster than the 6.4 percent decrease in June. Imports declined notably by 9.9 percent annually in July, reversing a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

JYOTHY LABS LIMITED
CMP: 191.05
Target Price: 226
Upside: 19%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 198.20/130.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 7019.19
  • EPS (Rs.) 4.61
  • P/E Ratio (times) 41.46
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.86
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.31
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Jyothy Labs is a multi-brand FMCG company, involved in the manufacturing and marketing of products in fabric care, dishwash, mosquito repellent and personal care.
  • The company continues to strengthen its core business with a focus on distribution which has resulted in double-digit growth for Q1FY23 and as well as on a 2-year CAGR basis. Moreover, Softening of commodity prices of crude oil, palm oil and others will reduce the inflationary impact on gross margins.
  • As per segmental performance, Fabric Care increased by 38.6% during the quarter and recovered well while Household Insecticides showed muted performance due to weak season in markets of North and East. Other segments showed decent performance: Dishwashing (+9.6% YoY, increased LUP (lower unit pack, Personal Care (+2.1%), and others (+11.4% YoY).
  • The management is hopeful for good business performance in the coming quarters. It will continue to expand and strengthen its footprint by taking necessary actions. Widening connections in the rural and urban markets will ensure growth for the company and contribute to the sector. It is consistently increasing market share across the brands.
  • The Company’s cost-saving initiatives, innovation, strong brands, an integrated distribution network, and new launches will drive its volume growth on the progressing path.
  • During the quarter, the company registered doubledigit growth in e-commerce and retail segments. Modern trade currently contributes 10-12% to the top line. Exo, Pril, and Henko brands are performing well in the modern trade channel.
  • During Q1FY2023 operating performance of the company was mixed with revenue growing by 13.7% to Rs. 597.2 crores, while OPM declined by 202 bps y-o-y to 10%; PAT grew by 18.7% y-o-y. Double-digit revenue growth was majorly supported by price hikes while volume growth stood at 5%. The good performance was led by Fabric Care and Dishwashing with rural spending going up, the company expects the rural to urban contribution to turnover to see a slight change.

Risk

  • Economic risk
  • Highly competitive

Valuation

The company has focused on strengthening its balance sheet by maintaining stable working capital and reducing debt on books. Moreover, according to the management of the company, it would continue to focus on technology-led distribution, increase its brand visibility and improve productivity in all spheres of business to maintain a healthy balance between higher volume growth, market share and margins. It has a strong grip on its product categories and this has been possible mainly due to a distribution network. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.226 in 8 to 10 months time frame on an expected P/Ex of 40x and FY23 EPS of Rs.5.66.

P/B Chart

GREAVES COTTON LIMITED
CMP: 173.95
Target Price: 199
Upside: 14%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 258.85/129.15
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 4028.04
  • EPS (Rs.) 2.28
  • P/E Ratio (times) 76.29
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.33
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Greaves Cotton Limited is a diversified engineering company and a leading manufacturer of Cleantech Powertrain Solutions (CNG, Petrol and Diesel Engines), Generator sets, Farm equipment, EMobility, Aftermarket spares and services. Greaves Cotton is a multi-product and multi-location company with a rich legacy and brand trust of over 162 years. It is backed by comprehensive support from 500+ Greaves Retail Centers & 6300+ smaller spare parts retail outlets across the country.
  • Electric Mobility accounts for 43% of overall revenue. Ampere continues to be one of the fast-growing EMobility brand. The company is planning to launch new EVs as the company expects penetration of electric two-wheelers to increase, while electric three-wheeler sales to bounce back. It is looking at introducing two new electric two-wheelers and three electric three-wheelers soon. It targets the electric two-wheeler category to be priced in the range of ₹80,000-90,000.
  • Greaves Electric Mobility (GEM) recently entered into strategic partnership and investments from its partner Abdul Latif Jameel, a family-owned and diversified global investor, to speed up its EV business growth. Jameel has committed a total capital investment of up to $220 million (approx. Rs. 1752 crore), of which the first tranche of $150 million (Rs. 1171 crore) has been infused and shall be used for product development, manufacturing expansion, R&D activities, brand building etc. GEM has the option to draw the additional $70 million within 12 months.
  • The company is developing cleaner Diesel and Alternate Fuel engines to meet next regulatory requirement of OBD2 A and is plans to launch in Q4 FY23. Moreover, Low cost and fuel-efficient Diesel 3W Engine is ready for launch.
  • In Q1FY2022, it reported revenue growth of 188% to Rs. 660 crore. The new businesses continue to see strong growth with 56% revenue contribution to the overall business in Q1FY23. The retail sales of EMobility business stood at 29,577 units for this quarter, up by 19 % against Q4FY22. Ampere increased its market share to 15.5% as of end June 2022 and emerged as the No.2 player in e2W segment.

Risk

  • Increase in Commodity prices
  • Economic Slowdown

Valuation

The company has strong balance sheet and cash position to drive future expansion plan. Investment from Abdul Latif Jameel, auger well for the company in Electric Mobility space which is growing very fast. Couple of new launches going forward is expected to enhance revenue growth visibility of the company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 199 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/BV of 4.6x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.43.19.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

ALKEM LABORATORIES LIMITED (ALKEM)

The stock closed at Rs 3198.65 on 09th September, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 2828.00 on 16th May, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 4070.00 on 24th September, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 3205.58

After forming double bottom around 2880 levels, stock has started moving higher and is likely to give the breakout of its consolidation. Apart from this, stock is likely to form the “W” pattern on weekly chart. For completing the pattern, stock may give decent upside from current levels and can test its previous resistance of 3500 levels in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 3160-3180 levels for the upside target of 3500-3580 levels with SL below 3000 levels.

AXIS BANK LIMITED (AXISBANK)

The stock closed at Rs 784.85 on 09th September, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 618.25 on 23rd June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 866.90 on 25th October, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 716.80

As we can see on charts that stock has recovered sharply from lower levels and formed a Cup and Handle pattern on weekly chart which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has given the pattern breakout along with high volumes and also has managed to close above the same. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 770-778 levels for the upside target of 680-880 levels with SL below 735 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets extended its last week gains and settled in green territory as Nifty surpassed above 17800 levels while Bank Nifty also managed to end the week with gains of more than 2.5%. Firm global cues along with continuous foreign inflows supported the sentiments for Indian markets. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 16.36% while that for put options, it closed at 18.16%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 18.31%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.42. From derivative front, call writers were seen adding hefty open interest at 17900 &18000 strike while put writers added marginal open interest at 17800, 17700 & 17600 strike. For upcoming week, 18000 level would act as a key psychological resistance for Nifty while 17600-17550 zone is likely to give support on any downside. We expect that bias is likely to remain in favour of bulls and any dip should be used to create fresh longs. However, the stock specific action is likely to remain on radar as well.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Bottom 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 8th September, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric (Oct) prices traded down for third consecutive week due to subdued buying in local market traders. Prices have dropped by 36% since Jan’22 mainly due to adequate stocks at physical market that kept traders to go for hand to mouth buying. Arrivals which were higher by 21% Y-o-Y in first half of year’22 now have started coming down due to fall in turmeric prices. Only 3.27 thousand tonnes turmeric has been arrived so far in Sep’22 compared to 6.46 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Arrivals will remain down unless new crop touches the market. Turmeric prices are ruling down by 12% Y-o-Y that will lead to fall in arrivals in coming days. Going forward, major focus will be on the export demand of turmeric. India has exported around 49 thousand tonnes of turmeric during Apr’22-Jun’22 compared to 40 thousand tonnes of previous year, higher by 23% Y-o-Y. Prices are now trading near to support zone of 6900- 7000 and expected to move gradually up to 7400 in coming week.

Jeera (Oct) prices traded down for second consecutive week mainly due to profit booking as prices has slumped by 5% from the high of 26300. Hand to mouth buying at higher levels triggered profit booking and kept prices down. However, fundamentals are still looking supportive in wake of lower production in India. Arrivals have been down as stockists are away from heavy selling in anticipation of further rise in prices. About 4.19 thousand tonnes of Jeera has been arrived so far in Sep’22 compared to 4.57 thousand tonnes of previous year. Prices will be well supported by tighter supply as traders and spice makers have no other choice to buy jeera at inflated prices. Production in other producing countries like Syria and Turkey has been lower that will force global buyers to buy jeera from India. Jeera prices are likely to take support near 24300 and will towards 26200 in coming weeks.

Dhaniya (Oct) futures dropped sharply last week mainly due to reports of increased imports. Rising supply cheaper imports from Russia, Syria and other global counties put pressure on prices. Stockists are releasing their stocks in fear of further fall in prices in wake of ease in supply from black sea. Demand of dhaniya has been bleak due to adequate supply as increased imported has overshadowed the lower domestic production. Going forward, prices are likely to remain under pressure and slipped towards support of 10700 with resistance of 12000.

BULLIONS

Gold prices recovered and set for eking out small weekly gains, through persistent jitters over the U.S. FED continuing on an aggressive interest ratehike path weighed on sentiment. The dollar index rally appeared to be paused, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for holders of other currencies. Ongoing jobless claims and employment numbers will materially influence the central bank’s views of the strength of the underlying economy. At present levels, gold appears in the short term to have bottomed out. Demand for conventional safe havens rose after Russia shut a major gas pipeline to Europe, putting the continent at risk of a major energy crisis. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that they are strongly committed to curbing inflation. The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its funds rate by another 75 basis points on Sept. 21. The ECB raised its key rates by an unprecedented 75 bps. Global stocks markets are on course for their weekly advance, a small measure of respite from the bear-market omens circling markets due to monetary tightening, energy woes, and China’s growth slowdown. Ahead in the week, Gold prices on COMEX may continue to trade on the higher side and the possible range would be $1690-$1760. On MCX, Gold prices have taken strong support near 49700 levels, as per analysis it will remain a buying on the dips market, if prices sustains above 49700 and prices could face the shortterm resistance near 51500 levels. Silver jumped over 4% week on week taking positive cues from gold & base metals (which recovered from a 15-month low). Silver prices may continue to trade with a bullish bias and may take support near 53500 and possibly face resistance near 56000 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude prices continued the bearish trend appear to be set for another losing week pressured by central bank monetary policies and continued demand concern. Meanwhile, the latest weekly EIA report on oil inventories added to downward pressure on prices as it estimated a sizeable inventory build of 8.8 million barrels for the week. The Biden administration had earlier this year said it would begin to replenish the SPR once the release program ends. It envisaged a total of 180 million barrels to be released into the market as a way of bringing retail fuel prices down. Fundamentally, a sharp decline in the US SPR suggests that undersupply is still a predominant issue in the physical oil markets, though recession fears may continue to weigh. Recession fears also remain an important issue for prices, which caused Brent to slide below $90 per barrel for the first time since February. Prices also drew support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat to halt oil and gas exports if price caps are imposed by European buyers. The European Union proposed capping Russian gas prices, raising the risk of rationing this winter if Moscow carries out its threat. Russia's Gazprom has already halted flows from the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. China's Chengdu extended a lockdown for a majority of its more than 21 million residents to prevent further transmission of COVID-19. Ahead in the week, crude oil prices may continue to trade in the range of 6400-7200 levels with higher volatility. Natural Gas posted another weekly loss as traders assessed receding domestic demand prospects, rising production and possible peril for American LNG exports. Ahead in the week, prices may trade in the range of 600-700 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with a positive bias on worries about supply shortages due to high energy prices or other disruptions. Lower-than-expected inflation numbers from China are easing worries about falling demand due to higher prices. China's consumer prices rose at a slower-than-expected pace in August amid heatwaves and COVID-19 flare-ups, while producer inflation eased to the lowest since February 2021, official data showed. China's cabinet announced more steps to spur investment to bolster its COVID-damaged economy. The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points on Thursday and promised further hikes, to combat inflation even as the bloc is likely heading towards a winter recession and gas rationing. Copper may trade in the range 630-685 levels. Workers at BHP's Escondida in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, voted last week to go on strike. Fundamentally, copper price is taking support by tight supply of immediately available metals. The premium of cash copper on the LME over the threemonth contract ended at $108.50 a tonne, its highest since November 2021. LME copper inventories fell to 102,725 tonnes, their lowest since April 6. Aluminum may trade in the range of 195-215 with a bullish bias. European smelters are estimated to have cut an annualised 800,000 to 900,000 tonnes of aluminium production since energy prices began to rise last year. Zinc can trade in the range of 280-310. Lead can move in the range of 172-182. The Prices are getting support on smelters cutting the production cut by smelters due to energy crisis. Steel long is likely to trade in the range of 48500- 49900 levels with bearish bias on NCDEX.

OTHER COMMODITIES

MCX Cotton (Oct) prices witnessed steep fall in prices last week mainly due to improved supply condition. Millers are preferring hand to mouth buying in wake in anticipation of fall in prices. Worries over supply deficit have been fading away gradually with early commencement of arrivals in northern part of India mainly in Haryana and Punjab along with satisfactory crop condition in central India. Cotton production may touch 370-80 lakh tonnes against the 312 lakh tonnes of previous year. Prices are likely to trade downside towards 34900 levels with resistance of 38000.

NCDEX Cotton seed oil cake (Dec) prices recovered further from the recent low 2315 on fresh buying at futures platform. Currently, Basis (Spot- futures prices) has turned negative as spot prices ruled at 2685 much higher compared to futures. Considering the prices trend market participants will buy cotton seed oil cake at futures in expectation of basis adjustment (Futures prices normally rules above to spot prices). However, ample availability of green fodder and early commencement of cotton arrivals in northern part of India along will higher production outlook will cap the excessive gains. NCDEX Cotton seed oil cake Dec is likely to find support near 2280 with resistance of 2505.

NCDEX Guar Seed Oct futures witnessed sharp gains last week on fear of crop damage in Rajasthan emerging with extended drier spell of weather condition. Crop is at pod filling stage in Rajasthan facing lack of soil moisture due to above normal temperature in Rajasthan that will hamper the crop if situation prevails for next 10 days. Guar seed prices are supported at 4600 and may move up to 5400 due to prevailing crop concerns. However, gains are likely to be limited as overall area under Guar seed has been higher by near 50% Y-o-Y in Rajasthan.

Mentha oil (Sep) extended its gains improved industrial buying at physical market. Mentha oil prices have found support near 960-970 zone and expected to move up gradually towards 1050 level with fall in supply.

Castor seed (Oct) prices traded sideways to higher tightness in domestic supply. Higher production outlook supported by rising acreages under castor increased is likely to put pressure in prices. Total area has been reported at 7.95 lakh Ha, higher by 33% Y-o-Y so far in year 2022. Sluggish export of castor oil will also put pressure on prices. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to find support near 7000 level with resistance of 7660.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: SEPT
M*.High: 664.80
M*.Low: 630.70

It closed at Rs. 653.30 on 08th Sep 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 655.14. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.677. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 655 for a target of Rs. 685 with the stop loss of 640.

ALUMINIUM MCX
Contract: SEPT
M*.High: 205.90
M*.Low: 197.10

It closed at Rs. 200.10 on 08th Sep 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 205.94. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.999. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 206 for a target of Rs. 192 with the stop loss of 213.

JEERA NCDEX
Contract: SEPT
M*.High: 25940.00
M*.Low: 24600.00

It closed at Rs. 24985.00 on 08th Sep 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 25266.33. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.653. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 25300 for a target of Rs. 24000 with the stop loss of 25800.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, copper output in July fell 6.6% year-over-year to 195,234 tonnes after two of the country's largest mines underperformed.
  • European smelters are estimated to have cut an annualized 800,000 to 900,000 tonnes of aluminium production since energy prices began to rise last year.
  • The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points and promised further hikes, to combat inflation.
  • The government set a food grain production target of 328 million tonne (mt) for the 2022-23 crop year (July- June) which is 4% more than a record foodgrain output of 315.7 mt in the previous year.
  • OPEC+, the alliance of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil major oil exporters decided to reduce oil output by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October.
  • India imposes 20 per cent export duty on non-Basmati rice.
  • S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from July's four-month low of 55.5 to 57.2 in August, highlighting a rebound in growth.
  • Wheat stocks in the central pool held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies dipped to 25 million tonne (mt) at the beginning of this month, the lowest level since 2008.
  • China held 62.64 million fine troy ounces of gold at the end of August, unchanged from the end-July. The value of its gold reserves fell to $107.49 billion at the end of August from $109.84 billion at the end-July.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

CRB saw a fall for second week on surge in DXY amid some weak data. The greenback touched the high of 110.79 levels. Dollar index rose to a fresh 24-year high against the Japanese yen as traders anticipated further aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Services sector unexpectedly seeing activity accelerated in August, giving Fed more space to hike interest rates. Energy counter saw a freefall. European natural gas futures fell to their lowest in a month, extending their declines after the European Union proposed measures to bring wholesale energy prices down ahead of a looming winter energy crisis. The selloff in oil accelerated into a near freefall on Wednesday, with global benchmark Brent crude breaking key support of $90 per barrel the first time since February. China’s growing COVID lockdowns and fears of a third straight 75-basis point rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve when it meets on September 21 led to a perfect storm for oil bulls. TTF futures are now down over 40% from their peak last month, despite Russia confirming fears that it will shut down all energy supplies to Europe over the coming winter. However, those prices still remained at a level far above anything witnessed before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Base metals witnessed selling pressure on weakness in China and strong upside in dollar index. China’s trade surplus came significantly below expectations for August, with both imports and exports disappointing amid continued economic disruptions in the country. Industrial metals demand outlook was clouded by persisting COVID curbs in top metals consumer China. Large inflows of aluminium into LMEregistered warehouses have eased supply concerns, flipping quickly delivered cash aluminium from a premium to a discount against the three-month contract. However, base metals gained from the low and closed the week in green territory. Bullion counter too saw value buying from the lower levels as DXY retreated on 75bps interest rate hike by ECB.

Guar prices saw strong reversal from the low in recent trades due to emerging fear of crop damage in Rajasthan due to extended drier spell of weather condition. Crop is at pod filling stage in Rajasthan facing lack of soil moisture due to above normal temperature in Rajasthan. Cotton oil seed cake saw value buying from the lower levels after a sharp fall. Fresh buying occurred at futures platform. Currently, NCDEX cotton seed oil cake Sep prices are ruling at 2435, much lower to spot prices of 2665 levels. Jeera prices slipped on profit booking from the higher side; stockiest kept them away from heavy selling in anticipation of further rise in prices. Castor rose again on supply tightness but upside was limited on less export demand of oil and increased area under castor in Gujarat and Rajasthan will put pressure on prices.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

METALS & ENERGY

Commodities have seen extraordinary move in 2022; so far. With the start of war amid tight supply and higher growth, most of the commodities either touched multi year highs or made record high in 2022. However, with ease in supply, lower freight rate, record hike in interest in different major countries, slow down in China, weaker economic data, better acreage worldwide and many more factors have cooled off commodities prices to some extent.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Market Stance

Indian Rupee jumped to one week high after oil suffering from back-to-back weekly losses. Further domestic unit got supported driven by FIIs flows into the domestic equity markets. Foreign investors have bought over $350 million so far in this month after $6.5 billion worth buying in August. On top of that USDINR volatility slides to 6-week lows supporting carry trades to some extent. Technically USDINR has scope to fall towards 79.10 on spot while resistance now placed around 79.90 as well in coming days. From majors, ECB went for a 75 bps hike for the first time since 1999 lifting euro higher. The decision was seen as front loading. Further ECB may go for rate hike based on incoming data. However in short term, EURUSD has scope to follow a relief rally but it won't last for long and any rise in eurusd towards 1.0200/$ will be a selling opportunity. We may expect EURUSD to fall towards 0.97 in coming weeks while EURINR has the probability to fall towards 78.00 on spot as well. On the other side GBPUSD plunged to hit pandemic lows after severe concerns over inflation and new incoming UK PM capping energy bills likely to add more vulnerabilities in fiscal deficit. However initial reaction after the immediate measures from new UK PM supported pound as well. Again GBPUSD and GBPINR will attract sellers next week subject to how US CPI data evolves.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (SEP)contract closed at 79.8150 on 08-SEP-22. The contract made its high of 80.1000 on 07-SEP-22 and a low of 79.7700 on 08-SEP-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 79.8326.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.09.One can buy at 79.50 for the target of 80.50 with the stop loss of 79.00.

GBP/INR (AUG)contract closed at 92.1900 on 08-SEP-22. The contract made its high of 92.9825 on 06-SEP-22 and a low of 91.5550 on 07-SEP-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 93.7906.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.55. One can sell at 92.75 for a target of 91.75 with the stop loss of 93.25.

News Flows of last week

05th SEPT UK August final services PMI 50.9 vs 52.5 prelim
05th SEPT Turkish inflation tops 80% for first time in 24 years
06th SEPT ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Unexpectedly Rises to 56.9 in August
07th SEPT US International trade balance for July -70.7B vs -70.3B estimate
07th SEPT China exports fall as demand slows and lockdowns hit manufacturing
07th SEPT Interest rate rises likely despite energy bill freeze says Bank of England
08th SEPT ECB raises rates by 75 basis points and promises more to come
08th SEPT US’s gas rescue plan for Europe threatens domestic backlash
08th SEPT India and China undercut Russia’s oil sanctions pain

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (SEP) contract closed at 80.0075 on 08-SEP-22. The contract made its high of 80.0750 on 08-SEP-22 and a low of 79.1825 on 07-SEP-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 80.2803.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.83. One can buy at 80.00 for a target of 81.00 with the stop loss of 79.50.

JPY/INR (SEP) contract closed at 55.6875 on 08-SEP-22. The contract made its high of 57.2475 on 06- SEP-22 and a low of 55.4525 on 07-SEP-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 57.5615.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 29.74. One can sell at 56.25 for a target of 55.25 with the stop loss of 56.75.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

DreamFolks Services IPO shares debut with 56% premium at Rs 509

Airport service aggregator platform DreamFolks Services listed with a strong 56 percent gains on September 6. The stock opened at Rs 505 on the BSE, against issue price of Rs 326, and the opening tick on the NSE was Rs 508.70. Healthy initial public offering (IPO) subscription, positive market conditions, leadership in airport lounge aggregation industry, and asset light business model boosted investor confidence. The Rs 562-crore IPO had received strong response from investors, getting subscribed 56.68 times during August 24-26. It was entirely an offer for sale by shareholders. The price band for the offer was Rs 308-326 per share. DreamFolks Services is a dominant player and India's largest airport service aggregator platform. The company facilitates access to airport-related services such as lounge, food & beverages, spa, pick up and drop service.

Harsha Engineering IPO to open Sept 14; price band fixed

The initial public offering (IPO) of Harsha Engineers International will kick off for subscription on September 14. The company will sell its shares in the range of Rs 314-330 apiece. The IPO consists of the issuance of fresh equity shares worth Rs 455 crore, whereas existing shareholders and promoters will offload Rs 300 crore worth of shares via offer for sale (OFS). As part of OFS, Rajendra Shah will offload shares worth up to Rs 66.75 crore, Harish Rangwala up to Rs 75 crore, Pilak Shah up to Rs 16.50 crore, Charusheela Rangwala up to Rs 75 crore and Nirmala Shah up to Rs 66.75 crore. The company will raise Rs 755 crore through its initial stake sale. The issue will remain open for subscription till Friday, September 16. The anchor book will open on September 13.

Aprameya Engg files draft papers for IPO

Medical equipment manufacturer Aprameya Engineering has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO comprises the sale of fresh issue of up to 50 lakh equity shares of the company and there is no offer for sale (OFS) component, draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) filed with Sebi showed. Funds will be used to meet working capital requirements and for general corporate purposes. The company is engaged in the business of healthcare infrastructure like installation, set up and maintenance of ICU, operation theatre and prefabricated structure ward on a turnkey basis along with the supply of high-value healthcare equipment and diagnostic equipment to hospitals. Hem Securities Ltd is the sole book-running lead managers to the issue. The equity shares of the company will be listed on the BSE and NSE.

Vaibhav Jewellers files draft papers to mop-up funds via IPO

Vaibhav Gems N' Jewellers Ltd, a leading regional jeweller brand in South India, has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The public issue comprises fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 210 crore and an Offer-for-Sale (OFS) of 43 lakh equity shares by promoter entity Grandhi Bharata Mallika Ratna Kumari (HUF), according to DRHP. Also, the company may consider a further issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 40 crore. If such a placement is completed, the fresh issue size will be reduced. Proceeds of the fresh issue will be utilized to finance the establishment of eight new showrooms costing Rs 12 crore and the purchase of inventory worth Rs 160 crore over FY23 and FY24, besides general corporate purposes. Visakhapatnam-headquartered Vaibhav Jewellers offers a wide range of products in gold, diamonds, gems, platinum and silver jewellery or articles. Its sub-brand Visesha caters to a premium segment of gold and diamond jewellery.

Sebi clears IPO of Concord Enviro

Concord Enviro Systems, an environmental engineering solutions firm, has received Sebi's go- ahead to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The proposed IPO comprises fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs. 175 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 35 million shares by promoters and an investor, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). Going by the draft papers, proceeds from the fresh issue will be used for investment in the company's arm Concord Enviro FZE in relation to financing the construction of an assembly unit in Sharjah International Airport Free Zone.

Blue Jet Health files papers for Rs 1,800-cr IPO

Blue Jet Healthcare, a speciality pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredient company filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with Sebi for an initial public offer. The public issue is entirely an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 21.7 million shares by the promoters and other shareholders to the tune of around Rs.1,800 crore, said bankers. The company operates under the "Blue Jet" brand offering niche products targeted at innovator pharmaceutical companies and multinational generic pharmaceutical companies. The company, which is net debt free, reported a 37% jump in operational revenues for 2022 to Rs. 683.47 crore. Its profit after tax increased 33.73% in FY22 to Rs. 181.59 crore.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Kotak Mutual Fund launches Kotak Business Cycle Fund

Kotak Mutual Fund has launched Kotak Business Cycle Fund, an open-ended scheme following business cycles based on investing themes. The fund would invest in stocks and sectors of the companies that can navigate through various economic cycles. The term "Business Cycle" refers to various stages where a company or a specific sector undergoes a period of expansion, moderation and contraction in the business. The NFO is open and will close on September 21. Investors can invest a minimum amount of Rs 5,000 during the NFO period. The fund will be managed by Pankaj Tibrewal and Abhishek Bisen. According to the press release, Kotak Business Cycle Fund will take into account various economic parameters (GDP growth, current account deficit, corporate profit growth trend, inflation etc.), investment indicators (investment in capex, capacity utilisation, credit growth, etc.), business and leading economic indicators (business confidence index, purchasing manager index, etc.) while picking stocks. Speaking at the launch of the fund, Nilesh Shah, Group President and Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, said, "Kotak Business Cycle Fund provides a good opportunity for investors to diversify their equity portfolio as there are equity stocks across categories, which tend to do better at various stages of the Business Cycle. Even during challenging times of economic slowdown, these companies have managed to navigate the challenges and perform well across various economic parameters.

Axis Mutual Fund launches Silver ETF and Silver FoF

Axis Mutual Fund has launched the Axis Silver ETF, an open ended scheme replicating domestic price of Silver, and Axis Silver Fund of Fund, an open ended fund of fund scheme investing in units of Axis Silver ETF. Both NFOs are open for subscription till September 15. Both the funds will be benchmarked against the LBMA Silver daily spot AM fixing price. Pratik Tibrewal, Fund Manager, Commodities, will be managing the Axis Silver ETF and the minimum application amount would be Rs 500 per application and in multiples of INR 1/- thereafter. Aditya Pagaria, Fund Manager, Fixed Income will be managing the Axis Silver FoF and the minimum application amount be Rs 500 and in multiples of Re 1/- per application in the ETF and Rs 5,000 and in multiples of INR 1/- thereafter in the FoF. The fund house said in a press release that Silver in its physical form may pose challenges with respect to corrosion over time, safety, purity of the metal, liquidity risk etc. Investors can opt to gain exposure to the precious metal via an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) that aims to generate returns in line with the performance of physical silver in domestic prices, subject to tracing error. Investors who do not have a Demat account can gain exposure by investing in Silver FoF (Fund of Fund).

Helios Capital gets Sebi's in-principle approval to launch mutual fund business

Helios Capital has received capital markets regulator Sebi's in-principle approval to launch a mutual fund business. Helios Capital Management PTE Limited, which is the business of portfolio management services, applied for a mutual fund license with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in February 2021. The company has joined entities like Zerodha, Samco Securities and Bajaj Finserv that received Sebi's go-ahead to launch mutual fund operations. Besides, half a dozen companies are awaiting Sebi's nod to enter into the mutual fund space. A flurry of applications for a mutual fund license was seen after the market regulator allowed fintech firms to enter the space.

Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund launches Turbo Systematic Transfer Plan

Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has announced the launch of Aditya Birla Sun Life Turbo Systematic Transfer Plan (Turbo STP). It is a facility, in which the unitholders can opt to transfer variable amounts from a source scheme to a target scheme, at defined intervals. According to the fund house, the variable or actual amount of transfer to the target scheme via the turbo STP will be determined based on the results from an in-house model which helps ascertain market valuation. The model tracks technical and fundamental parameters like valuation ratios, trend ratios and volatility ratios, to arrive at an Equity Valuation Multiplier (EVM). This value helps determine the actual amount to be transferred based on the pre-selected STP base amount.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/09/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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