In the week gone by, global market witnessed volatile movements as Treasury Iyields spiked to a three year high ahead of U.S. inflation data which could foreshadow even more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Besides, the ongoing geopolitical strife also helped prompt the flight to safety. The US Federal Reserve has vowed to aggressively tackle scorching inflation, and market participants largely expect a series of 50-basis-point interest rate hikes from the central bank in the coming months. Meanwhile, city-wide COVID-19 lockdowns in China led to plant shutdowns and production halts for various automakers. On the flip sides, China's export growth held up well in March, although analysts say the momentum could soon peter out with the world's second-largest economy set to slow sharply due to the Ukraine war and domestic COVID-19 lockdowns.
Back at home, volatility continued to rule the Indian markets amid uncertainty due to rising inflation levels and fresh surge in oil prices. Besides Bond market yields have been surging since the Russia-Ukraine war and more sharply since the April 8 policy, when the RBI changed its stance to “withdrawal of accommodation.” India's industrial growth, as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), edged up to 1.7 percent in February from 1.5 percent in January. While, India's retail inflation jumped to a 17- month high of 6.95 percent in March from 6.07 percent in February, led by a rise in prices of food items. The headline retail inflation reading has crept up above RBI’s tolerance band’s upper limit for the third consecutive month. Investors are bracing for the latest earnings season as they want to evaluate the threat from inflation, amid concerns that rising commodity costs will end up squeezing company profits. The focus of the Investors will now be on Q4 results and they will continue to keep eye on the management commentary.
On the commodity market front, CRB recovered last week on renewed buying. Energy counter reignited as OPEC told the European Union that current and future sanctions on Russia could create one of the worst ever oil supply shocks and it would be impossible to replace those volumes, and signaled it would not pump more. Crude is now trading above $100. It can move in a range of 7200-8100 levels. Gold should continue to see strong inflows as uncertainty over inflation and growth will remain elevated over the coming months due to geopolitics and differing views on how aggressive the Fed will need to be with tightening of monetary policy during the summer months. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 51500-54500 and 67000-70000 levels respectively. The partial easing of Shanghai lockdowns lifted some of the downward pressure stemming from concerns about Chinese oil and base metals demand. Base metals are likely to continue their upside journey. Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment of US, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference, Unemployment Rate of Australia, GDP Growth Rate of China, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of Canada etc. are some important events and data scheduled this week which will give further direction to commodities.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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Over the past couple of quarters, the asset quality of the bank is improving and the same is likely to continue as the challenges that came from covid are largely behind. The management is focusing on margin improvement and looking for business growth without diluting the margin. So far the retail loan growth has been driving the business and margins of the bank. Retail loan growth is expected to continue going forward and the management expects corporate credit growth to start picking up next year; both this will help the bank to achieve improved credit growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.141 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/Bv of 0.8x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.176.73.
According to the management, its superior product offering across the pricing spectrum, solid execution and strong customer focus have enabled to create a resilient brand franchise in the overall market. The same is also visible in pre-sales and collections momentum which has been growing at a strong pace sequentially as well as presales surpassing last financial year figures in the first nine months. It intends to maintain this discipline going forward and focus on financial performance to grow business. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.545 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BV of 2.52x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.216.39.
The stock closed at Rs 127.90 on 13th April, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 86.75 on 12th April, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 141.50 on 09th November, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 112.27.
We can see on charts that the stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, the stock is forming a “Continuation Triangle” pattern on weekly charts which indicates that buying momentum may continue for coming days. Last week, the stock has given the pattern breakout and also has managed to close above the same. So further upside is expecting from the stock from the current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 123-125 levels for the upside target of 140-143 levels with SL below 116 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 211.70 on 13th April, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 105.85 on 23rd August, 2021 and a 52- week high of Rs. 214.40 on 13th April, 20212 The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 155.01
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Apart from this, the stock has formed an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on daily charts and has given the pattern breakout and also has managed to close near week’s high along with high volumes, which indicates buying is aggressive in the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 205-207 levels for the upside target of 235-240 levels with SL below 190 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Once again Indian markets remained volatile in the week gone by and settled marginally lower, as traders remained side line amid long weekend. From the derivative front, call writers were seen at 17600 & 17700 strike and this kept markets under pressure and Nifty ended below 17500 mark. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 15.93% and put options closed at 16.79. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 18.16%, which was slightly lower than the previous week. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.33. Technically both the indices are still holding well above its long term moving averages on daily charts. However secondary oscillators suggest for furthermore consolidation into the prices at current juncture. In upcoming sessions, we expect Nifty to sail in the range of 17350- 17650 levels while Bank nifty may find support in zone of 37200 to 37000 range. On higher side, Nifty needs to give decisive move beyond 17700 levels for any further upside into the prices.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Spices: Turmeric futures (May) traded in a closed range and has good resistance at 9600 levels. The demand is improving while the arrivals are normal as per the seasonality. With expectation of normal monsoon, the prices may remain sideways as sowing is in progress in some parts of the country. We expect the prices to trade in the range of 9000 – 10000 levels. Currently, the prices are 20% higher as compared to the last year due to improved demand for the new season turmeric. New season turmeric is hitting the market and the exports are currently peaking up. In the first 10-months (Apr-Jan) of FY 2021/22, exports were down by 20.1% at 1.27 lakh tonnes as compared to the last year but higher by 9.2% as compared with 5-year average. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, turmeric output is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 as against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. Jeera futures (May) traded positively last week but still resistance is at all-time high of 23495 levels. We have witnessed improving domestic demand from the spices industries. In coming week, it is likely to trade lower towards 21500 levels with resistance at 22250 levels. The physical arrival of old and new crop in Unjha is around 28000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) daily compared to about 44000 bags last year. In 2022, jeera prices have jumped about 39% while prices are higher by 61% y/y due to lower crop estimates. As per the first advance estimates by govt, cumin seed output is at 7.25 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 7.95 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. Jeera exports during Apr-Jan period down by 23% Y/Y at 1.88 lt compared to 2.44 lt last year due to higher prices. Dhaniya futures (May) closed higher for the fourth successive week and now resistance is at 7 years high level of 13300. Prices are supportive because of improving export demand. It is likely to trade in a range of 12350 - 13300 levels. Currently prices are higher by 80% y/y and up 45% since January on lower crop estimates while the exports are down. As per data release by Govt, coriander exports during FY 2021/22 (Apr-Jan) down by 15% at 41,100 tonnes compared to 48,350 tonnes last year but 11% higher compared to 5-year average. The spice companies waited price fall this year, but they see no reduction in prices and now started their purchase, which is supporting prices. The arrivals have improved in market as the prices touching multi year high.
Gold surged more than 1% as Treasury yields eased after U.S. inflation data largely met expectations, reducing the likelihood of long-term aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped after data showed inflation accelerated in March, but less than many market participants had expected. While gold is considered as an inflation hedge, rising prices can lead central banks to hike interest rates, pushing up bond yields and increasing the opportunity cost of holding zeroyield bullion. However the likelihood of aggressive policy measures has also sparked concerns the Fed may make a policy error and cause a recession, in turn bolstering safe-haven gold. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said the combined effort of trimming its balance sheet and a series of rate hikes would help bring down inflation, adding a moderation in "core goods" inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is a "welcome" signal. This doesn't change anything over the short term, with the Fed still expected to raise rates by 50 basis points next month to tame inflation. March inflation came in at up 8.5%, year-on-year, which is a 40-year high, inflation historically bullish for hard commodities. Gold continued to find support as a safe haven from developments surrounding Ukraine, with Russian troops massing for a new offensive. On the technical front, gold looks positive on COMEX and may continue to take support near $1940 levels and target $2010 in short term. On MCX, Gold may trade with sideways to bullish bias where it may take support near 51500 levels and resistance near 54000 levels. Silver may also follow the footsteps of gold and trade in the range of 66500-69800 levels.
Crude Oil prices started the week with fall over 4%, with Brent crude tumbling below $100 a barrel on worries that the COVID-19 pandemic will cut demand in China and as International Energy Agency (IEA) countries plan to release record volumes of oil from strategic stocks. After that crude prices gained over 8% from the low amid lockdowns eased in Shanghai and as Russian oil and gas condensate production fell to 2020 lows and OPEC warned it would be impossible to replace potential supply losses from Russia. Shanghai said more than 7,000 residential units had been classified as lower-risk areas after reporting no new infections for 14 days. Districts have been announcing which compounds can be opened up. Meanwhile OPEC warned it would be impossible to replace 7 million bpd of Russian oil and other liquids exports lost in the event of sanctions or voluntary actions. Sources said Russia's average oil output fell more than 6% to 10.32 million bpd on April 1-11 from 11.01 million in March. Ahead in the week crude prices may continue to witness high volatility and trade in the range of 7300-7880. Natural gas prices hit a 13-year rising 5.5%. Demand remains strong, but natural gas arrivals at LNG terminals were flat. The weather is expected to be much colder than average in the mid- West over the next 6-10 days and moderating over the next 8-14 days but still colder than normal. This scenario will increase heating demand. Ahead in the week Natural gas may continue to trade higher in the range of 490-530. Every dip near support is considered as buying opportunity.
Base metals may trade in range as COVID-19 curbs in top consumer China and bets over aggressive policy tightening fanned concerns over growth and demand. Shanghai lockdown jitters are continuing to influence sentiment. However, the city relaxed some COVID-19 related restrictions in some areas amid mounting worries over the economic impact of the strict curbs. China's exports rose 13.4% in yuan terms in January-March from a year earlier, while imports increased 7.5%, customs data showed. If dollar extends its rebound versus major peers, it may weigh on counter. Fed officials said they were prepared to raise rates in half-percentage-point increments in coming policy meetings. However, metals prices may get support further as the risk of more sanctions on Russia may raise concerns over supply. Copper may trade in the range 800-845 levels. China's copper cathode output in March edged up by 0.3% from February despite maintenance at some smelters, Antaike said. Zinc can move towards 395 levels with support of 360 levels. Lead can move in the range of 182-192 levels with firm bias. Zinc prices may continue to rise after a drop in production from top producer China and output cuts in Europe due of record-high power prices raised concerns over supply shortfalls amid low inventories. China's refined zinc output fell on both an annual and monthly basis in March as the COVID-19 outbreak disrupted transportation of raw materials, state-backed research house Antaike said. Aluminum may trade with bearish bias in the range of 260-280 levels. Lower crude prices and worries about growth and demand due to fresh lockdowns in China and higher interest rate environment may pressurize the Aluminum prices. Nickel may trade in the range of 2350-2550 levels.
Cotton futures (Apr) touched fresh all-time high of 444300 levels last week. We expect prices to trade in range of 42900 – 45000 with positive bias. Currently, the domestic prices are high 104% y/y and jumped about 30.3% in 2022 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales as compared to last year. In the second advance estimates, govt has cut cotton production to 340 lakh bales from 362 lakh bales in 1st estimate. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. Guar seed futures (May) traded in narrow range but is looking positive on higher export demand for guar gum from the country. We expect the prices to trade towards 6700 levels, if it breaks resistance level of 6500 levels. Support is at 6400 levels. Currently, prices are up 65% y/y on reports of lowest production in last 5 years, multi-year lower stocks and improving export demand due to higher crude oil prices. The US oil rig count is also higher at 546 up by about 209 compared to last year. In Jan 2022, Guar gum exports are higher by 5% y/y at 22300 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 (Apr-Jan) are up by 38.4% y/y at 2.64 lakh tonnes. Castor Seed (May) have recovered last week after more than 6% corrections in the previous week. We expect prices to trade in a range of 7050 – 7350 levels. There is expectation of improving arrivals, as prices have been good this season. Prices have increased 18.4% this year due to lower production estimates and higher by 43.5% y/y due to good exports demand and limited arrivals. As per SEA, castor meal exports increase by 40% y/y to 32000 tonnes in Feb 2022, while overall exports for FY 2021/22 down about 5.5% to 3.60 lt vs 3.90 lt. Similarly, castor oil exports are higher by 7% m/m in Feb 2022 at 50,200 tonnes while it is at par at 6.1 lakh tonnes for Apr-Feb period. Mentha Oil (Apr) closed lower last week on profit booking after 5 consecutive positive weekly closing due to profit booking at higher levels. The trend is still bullish on lower area and diminishing arrivals. The immediate support is 1050 levels and resistance at 1120 levels. The area under mentha expected to be lower this season in Uttar Pradesh while exports and demand is rising over the years.
COPPER MCX (APR) contract closed at Rs. 819.55 on 12th Apr 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 888.35 on 07th Mar’2022 and a low of Rs. 758.00 on 09th Feb’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 816.55. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.213.
One can buy near Rs. 815 for a target of Rs. 835 with the stop loss of 805.
CRUDE OIL MCX (APR) contract was closed at Rs. 7644.00 on 12th Apr’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 9684.00 on 08th Mar’2022 and a low of Rs. 6469.00 on 18th Feb’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 7694.85. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.063.
One can buy near Rs. 7600 for a target of Rs. 7900 with the stop loss of Rs 7450.
CASTOR SEED NCDEX (MAY)contract closed at Rs. 7136.00 on 12th Apr’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 7642.00 on 01st Apr’2022 and a low of Rs. 7050.00 on 08th Apr’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 7238.95. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.282.
One can buy above Rs. 7200 for a target of Rs. 7500 with the stop loss of Rs. 7050.
CRB recovered last week on renewed buying. Energy counter reignited as OPEC told the European Union that current and future sanctions on Russia could create one of the worst ever oil supply shocks and it would be impossible to replace those volumes, and signalled it would not pump more. Crude crossed $100 on NYMEX and 7800 on MCX. Oil prices climbed also on easing concerns about demand in China after Shanghai relaxed some COVID-19-related restrictions. IEA member nations are planning to release some 240 million barrels over the next six months in a bid to help calm the market, of which 180 million will be released from U.S. stockpiles at a rate of 1 million bpd starting in May. U.S. natural gas futures closed at the highest level in more than 13 years, reaching prices not seen since before the shale revolution unlocked the nation’s vast reserves of the fuel. Gas in NYMEX natural gas futures settled above $6.6, with colder-thanusual spring weather across the northern U.S. expected to divert fuel from storage -- just when inventories are supposed to be refilling. Bullion counter remained traded firm despite the rise in dollar index. Some correction in equity stimulated buying in bullion counter amid ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. MCX gold touched 53000 levels whereas silver touched 68992 levels; just few points shy away from 69000 levels. In base metals, it was only aluminium, which saw a fall on reduced premium for Japan. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for April to June was set at $172 a tonne, down 2.8% from the previous quarter, as weak demand in Japan and China outweighed concerns of supply disruptions from Russia. Zinc prices spiked up. Rapid fall of metals in LME warehouses that underpin the exchange's physicallydeliverable futures contracts can result in price volatility. Of the 500 tonnes of zinc stored in LME warehouse in Europe, only 25 tonnes is available to the market.
Guar counter recovered marginally. Guar gum exports are higher by 55.6% y/y at 31000 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 (Apr-Feb) are up by 40% y/y at 2.95 lakh tonnes. Castor saw limited upside. Higher prices of castor seed also dented demand from the local traders and oil millers. Market is expecting heavy arrivals in April – May which may put pressure on prices. Prices have increased 18.2% this year due to lower production estimates and also higher by 45.5% y/y. Cotton rose for seventh week due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. Dhaniya traded up. As per data release by Dept of commerce, coriander exports in Feb 2022 up 5.5% y/y at 3320 tonnes compared to 3150 tonnes last year.
Indian Energy Exchange is India’s premier energy marketplace, providing a nationwide automated trading platform to the various participants in power market for the physical delivery of electricity, renewable, and certificates. IEX started its operations on June 27, 2008 and regulated by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC). This is the world’s first electronic power exchange operating in a supply deficit scenario providing trading, settlement, and scheduling services.
IEX has a robust ecosystem of 6,800+ participants located across 29 States and 5 Union Territories comprising of 55+ distribution utilities and 500+ conventional generators. It also has a strong base of 4400+ commercial and industrial consumers representing industries such as such as metal, food processing, textile, cement, ceramic, chemicals, automobiles, information technology industries, institutional, housing, and real estate, and commercial entities.
IEX offers various compelling choices to trade in – Electricity Market, Green Market and Certificates.
Electricity Market
Day Ahead Market: Day-Ahead-Market (DAM) is a physical electricity trading market for deliveries for any/some/all 15 minute time blocks in 24 hours of next day starting from midnight.
Term Ahead Market: This provides a range of products allowing participants to buy/sell electricity on a term basis for duration of up to 11 days ahead.
Real Time Market: The RTM was introduced on June, 2020. Under this, generators and buyers of electricity bids for selling or purchasing of power practically realtime, for delivery in the next hour.
Cross Border Electricity Trade: In a boost to India’s efforts to create a regional power grid, cross border electricity trade has started on IEX on April 17, 2021. The Cross border in electricity is an Endeavour to expand the Indian power market towards building an integrated South Asian Power Market. To begin with, the grid connected south Asian countries such as Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will be able to participate in Day ahead Market and Term ahead Market on the Exchange.
Electricity Market
Green Term Ahead Market: A separate channel for trading in renewable energy—useful to ‘obligated entities’ obliged by Law to buy a specified amount of their power requirements from renewable energy sources.
Green Day-Ahead Market: The Green Day ahead Market allows anonymous & double sided closed collective auction in renewable energy on the day-ahead.
Electricity Market
Renewable Energy Certificates: Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are a market-based instrument that certifies the bearer owns one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity generated from a renewable energy resource.
Energy Saving Certificates: Energy Saving Certificates (ESCerts) is a product under Perform, Achieve and Trade Cycle-II (PAT-II) scheme, aims at achieving overall energy savings of 8.87 MTOE (million metric tonnes of oil equivalent) and covers 621 designated consumers spanning across 11 energy intensive industry sectors.
Electricity Market
Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) clocked a 38 per cent growth in trade volume at 1,02,035 million units in financial year 2021-22. In the last fiscal, the total market volume stood at 73,941 MUs (Million Units).
The energy markets have a key role to play in building a sustainable energy ecosystem. To achieve the national renewable aspirations, the technology-led energy market IEX enables greater competition, transparency, and flexibility that acting as a catalyst and facilitating the transition to a sustainable energy order.
Rising US Yields driven by higher inflation kept dollar higher against basket of currencies including rupee as emerging markets are facing consistent capital outflows going back to developed markets. Rupee lost nearly 2.30% year-to-date as Fed’s rate hike prospects gained momentum convincingly since recent 25 bps rate hike from Fed on March 16th. Meanwhile this week India recorded 6.95% rise in consumer prices, a 17- month high compared to last month. As oil jumped back above $100 a barrel, concerns mounted for inflationary pressures notably RBI has to go for a rate hike in coming months to combat inflation. Additionally U.S. inflation rose by the most since 1981, adding pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates even more aggressively. The consumer price index increased 8.5% in March from a year earlier, with gasoline costs driving half of the monthly increase. However we can expect the inflation is likely to peak around these levels. Indeed USDINR is likely to rise amid ongoing inflationary concerns especially in India as we are consumers driven economy; and higher the inflation will lead to sell-off in rupee unless growth factors do not overshoot as well. Technically USDINR may face some small headwind around 76.40 while strong hold for the pair now stands at 75.90. We do expect that USDINR may cross 76.40 on spot convincingly in coming days. From the majors, euro plunged below 1.0850 which lifted dollar index to cross above 100 for the first time in two years. Higher US yields weigh euro and pound as well. We think EURINR has scope to fall below 82.00 in coming days while weaknesses in GBPINR will continue for next week.
USD/INR (APR))contract closed at 76.1575 on 12-April-22. The contract made its high of 76.1900 on 12- April -22 and a low of 75.8425 on 11-April -22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 76.0651.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.05.One can buy at 76.00 for the target of 77.00 with the stop loss of 75.50.
GBP/INR (APR)) contract closed at 99.2700 on 12- April -22. The contract made its high of 99.4025 on 11- April -22 and a low of 98.8900 on 11- April -22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 99.9370.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.56. One can sell at 99.75 for a target of 98.75 with the stop loss of 100.25.
| 13th MAR | US CPI rose 8.5% in March, slightly higher than expected and the highest since 1981 |
| 12th MAR | India's retail inflation CPI recorded 6.95% in the month of March 2022 |
| 12th MAR | Putin warns the West: Russia cannot be isolated - or held back |
| 12th MAR | Biden to Modi: Buying more Russian oil is not in India's interest |
| 12th MAR | China health official says Shanghai COVID-19 infections still not under effective control |
| 11th MAR | OPEC warned it would be impossible to increase output enough to offset lost supply |
| 11th MAR | UK jobless rate slips further below pre-pandemic level |
| 11th MAR | UK payrolled employees rose 35k in Mar |
| 11th MAR | UK economy grows just 0.1% in February, missing expectations |
EUR/INR (MAR) contract closed at 84.3725 on 31-Mar-22. The contract made its high of 84.9525 on 31-Mar-22 and a low of 83.9250 on 29-Mar-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 84.3142.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.05. One can buy at 84.25 for a target of 85.25 with the stop loss of 83.75.
JPY/INR (MAR)) contract closed at 62.4775 on 31-Mar-22. The contract made its high of 63.0400 on 28-Mar-22 and a low of 61.4425 on 28-Feb-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 63.7859.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 27.95. One can buy at 62.00 for a target of 63.00 with the stop loss of 61.50.
Hyderabad-based iron and steel products maker Hariom Pipe Industries made a decent listing as the stock clocked a 39.87 percent premium on the BSE to the issue price on April 13 in line with expectations given the firm's good financial performance and decent subscription of IPO. The stock listed at Rs 214 on the BSE, while on the NSE it got listed at Rs 220 (up 43.79%) against an issue price of Rs 153 per share. Hariom, a manufacturer of mild steel (MS) pipes, scaffolding, HR strips, MS billets, and sponge iron, has an integrated plant at Mahabubnagar in Telangana that manufactures finished steel products from iron scrap and sponge iron, and another plant at Anantapur in Andhra Pradesh that exclusively manufactures sponge iron. With the net issue proceeds from the IPO, the company will expand MS pipe manufacturing capacity from 84,000 to 1,32,000 million tonne per annum (mtpa) by setting up two additional pipe mills next to the Mahabubnagar plant. It will also be expanding furnace unit capacity from 95,832 to 1,04,232 mtpa. The company in September 2020 had acquired the Anantapur facility as a part of backward integration initiative.
Veranda Learning Solutions made a strong debut on April 11 as the stock listed at a 14.60 percent premium to the issue price after decent subscription to its IPO. It opened at Rs 157 on BSE against issue price of Rs 137, while it opened 8.7 percent down at Rs 125 on National Stock Exchange. The Rs 200 crore public issue was subscribed 3.53 times during the March 29-31 period as retail investors bid for 10.76 times the shares reserved for them, while the portion set aside for noninstitutional investors was subscribed 3.87 times and that of qualified institutional buyers 2.02 times. The diversified and integrated learning solutions provider is going to utilise net issue proceeds for repaying debts, payment of acquisition consideration of Edureka, and growth initiatives. Veranda provides long and short term preparatory courses for students for UPSC exams, State Public Service Commission, Staff Selection Commission, banking, insurance, railways and chartered accountancy.
Shares of edible oil maker Ruchi Soya Industries ended up 13% at ₹924.85 after shares under its recently concluded follow-on public offering (FPO) started trading. Investors who were allotted shares in the FPO garnered a profit of over 44% as the stock touched a high of ₹940 earlier in the day, compared to its FPO price of ₹650. The FPO of Ruchi Soya was open for subscription between March 24 and 28 as the company sold its shares in the range of ₹615-650 per share, with a minimum lot size of 21 shares. The company's board had approved the allotment of 6.6 crore shares aggregating to ₹4,300 crore. Bajaj Ramdev's Patanjali Ayurveda-led Ruchi Soya aims to become a debt free entity. The FPO had garnered 3.6 times subscription.
Biba Apparels, which is backed by Warburg Pincus and Faering Capital, has filed its draft red herring prospectus with market regulator Sebi and joined the Indian fashion label listing party, multiple industry. Designer-turned-entrepreneur Meena Bindra founded Biba (a synonym for pretty women in Punjabi) Apparels Private Ltd in 1988. BIBA has entered the jewellery and footwear segments and has also made a foray into the fragrance vertical with the launch of a brand called Spelle. The brand was available across more than 120 cities, had opened its 300th store in Jaipur and was present in major retail chains like Shopper's Stop, Lifestyle, Pantaloons, and Central. In 2014, BIBA bought a 26.66 percent stake from couturier Anju Modi in her company Anjuman Brand Designs.
Float glass maker Gold Plus Glass Industry Ltd has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO comprises fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 300 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) up to 12,826,224 equity shares by promoters and an existing shareholder, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). As a part of the OFS, promoters -- Suresh Tyagi and Jimmy Tyagi -- will offer up to 1,019,995 equity shares each and investor PI Opportunities Fund-I will sell up to 10,786,234 equity shares. The company proposes to utilise the net proceeds from the fresh issuance of equity shares towards funding debt as well as working incremental requirements and general corporate purposes. Gold Plus Glass Industry is one of the leading float glass makers in India, with 16 per cent share of manufacturing capacity in fiscal 2021. The company's products cater to a range of end-use industries including automotive, construction and industrial sectors, with a variet0y of applications. IIFL Securities, Axis Capital, Jefferies India and SBI Capital Markets are the book running lead managers to the issue.
Delta Tech formerly known as Gaussian Network Pvt Ltd will soon file draft papers with Securities Exchange Board of India to raise funds via initial public offering. Delta Tech, which operates the online poker site 'Adda52', is the 100 percent subsidiary of Delta Corp Ltd. Delta Corp bought Gaussian Network in 2017 for around Rs 224 crore. Dhebar expects to list at the firm at the end of 2022. Delta Corp Incorporated in 1990 as a textiles and real estate consultancy company and has evolved into diversified segments like Casino gaming, Online gaming, Hospitality and Real estate.
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Strong SIP book and lower returns from traditional investments made equity mutual funds an attractive investment destination for investors with equity-oriented funds receiving a staggering net inflow of Rs 1.64 lakh crore in 2021-22. This comes following a net outflow of Rs 25,966 crore during 2020-21, data with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Going ahead, we expect the growing inflow trends in equity mutual funds to sustain given the current economic condition and markets, Manish Kothari- CEO and Co-Founder, ZFunds, said. According to the data, equity mutual funds witnessed a net inflow of Rs 1,64,399 crore in the entire 2021-22. This included an all-time high inflow of Rs 28,464 crore last month. The robust inflow pushed the asset base of equity mutual funds by 38 per cent to Rs 13.65 lakh crore at the end of March this year. The robust inflow pushed the asset base of equity mutual funds by 38 per cent to Rs 13.65 lakh crore at the end of March this year.
Equity mutual funds attracted a net sum of Rs 28,463 crore in March, making it the 13th consecutive monthly net inflow, amid a volatile stock market environment and continued FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) selling. In comparison, equity mutual funds saw a net inflow of Rs 19,705 crore in February, Rs 14,888 crore in January and Rs 25,077 crore in December 2021. Equity schemes have been witnessing net inflow since March 2021, highlighting the positive sentiment among investors. Prior to this, such schemes had consistently witnessed outflows for eight months from July 2020 to February 2021 losing Rs 46,791 crore. Within the equity segment, all categories saw net inflows. Multi-cap fund category saw the highest net inflow of Rs 9,694 crore, followed by large & mid-cap fund and large cap fund that witnessed over Rs 3,000 crore net infusion each. However, the debt segment saw a net outflow of Rs 1.15 lakh crore last month, after witnessing a net inflow of Rs 8,274 crore in February.
HSBC Asset Management has said it has mobilised over Rs 1,600 crore through its recent New Fund Offer (NFO) of HSBC CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL Apr 2028 Index Fund (HGSF). The AMC said that this is amongst the largest collections in the target maturity fund category. The fund opened for investors on April 4. HSBC CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL Apr 2028 Index Fund is an open ended Target Maturity Index Fund tracking CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL Index - April 2028. The scheme has a relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk. The fund aims to focus on the six year target maturity segment and gain from the current volatile outlook on long term securities.
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