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From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets remained cautious as hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and data showing the labor market remained tight led some investors to worry about more interest rate hikes. The November US CPI data release is on December 13 while the next US Fed FOMC is on December 13-14. At present UK is facing grim situation. The UK’s economic problems started after it decided to leave the European Union in 2016, but the COVID pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the stress. The UK is facing elevated inflation as energy prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Between July and September, the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.2 per cent, the latest data show. UK Budget set out a package of around £30 billion of spending cuts and £24 billion in tax rises over the next five years. Sentiment towards China was dented as the country logged its biggest daily jump in COVID cases in seven months. Rising infections brewed concerns over renewed lockdown measures in the country, which have severely crimped economic growth this year. Weak economic readings from China released this week also showed that the country was struggling to navigate new lockdown measures, denting sentiment.

Back at home, increasing FII participation boosts market confidence significantly in the recent days. It could be seen that foreign players are on buying spree in the domestic markets with the inflationary environment beginning to cool off, bond yields easing out, and the dollar index going down. Quarterly results have largely been in line with expectations. In another department, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), under the Liberalized Remittance Scheme (LRS), allows traders resident Indians to remit up to $250,000 per financial year for portfolio investments and other permissible transactions. India's October merchandise trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion from $25.71 billion in September, a Reuters calculation based on export and import data released by the government. India's merchandise exports fell to $29.78 billion from $35.45 billion in September. Exports in October 2021 stood at $35.73 billion. Merchandise imports declined to $56.69 billion from $61.16 billion in the same period, the data showed. Imports in October 2021 stood at $53.64 billion. On the sectoral front, banking stocks are likely to outperform due to an increase in credit demand resulting in higher net interest income as well as fee-based income. Going forward market trend will continue to take direction from both the global as well as domestic factors.

On the commodity market front, CRB was down with some downside bias. Dollar Index continued its previous week fall though the downside was limited. In bullion, gold continued its superfast move for third week whereas silver saw a pause in the rally on profit booking from higher side in MCX. Bullion trend is majorly bullish but we can’t deny profit booking in between. Hence one should buy on dip only. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 50000-53800 and 60000- 64000 respectively. Crude can touch 6500 on lower side. Base metals may find it difficult to stay at higher side. Durable Goods Orders, FOMC Minutes and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final of US, Ifo Business Climate, GDP Growth Rate and GfK Consumer Confidence of Germany, GDP Growth Rate of Mexico etc are few high importance data are scheduled this week, which will give some direction to the commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.



  • India’s Consumer price inflation slowed to 6.77 percent in October from 7.41 percent in September. Prices were forecast to rise 6.73 percent. In the same month of 2021, consumer prices had increased 4.48 percent.
  • India's wholesale price index climbed 8.39 percent year-over-year in October, slower than the 10.70 rise in September. Economists had expected inflation to ease to 8.70 percent.
  • India's Industrial production rose 3.1 percent year-on-year in September, reversing a 0.7 percent fall in August. That was above the 2.0 percent increase expected by economists.
  • Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) has approved SEZABY™ (phenobarbital sodium powder for injection) for the treatment of neonatal seizures.
  • Bharat Electronics has signed a MoU with Advanced Weapons and Equipment India (AWEIL), a Defence PSU, to jointly address the requirements of Indian Defence and Export markets. The MoU aims at leveraging the complementary strengths and capabilities of BEL and AWEIL to address domestic and export opportunities in the areas of Air Defence, Artillery Gun Systems, Medium Caliber Weapons, Small Arms and related systems.
  • Bharat Electronics has signed an MoU with Profense LLC, US, for cooperation in the manufacturing and marketing of light weapons. The MoU aims at leveraging the complementary strengths and capabilities of BEL and Profense LLC. It will enable the two companies to jointly develop light weapons for market requirements, current and future.
  • HFCL has secured export orders worth EURO 10.18 million (equivalent to Rs 86.23 crore), from renowned European Telecom Solution Providers for supply of optical fiber cables.
  • Tata Motors has bagged a prestigious order of 1000 buses from Haryana Roadways. Tata Motors will supply the 52-seater fully built BS6 diesel buses in a phased manner, as per the contract. Tata Motors buses offer superior passenger comfort, high fuel efficiency, reliability and low total cost of ownership. The e-bidding process was carried out through the Government tender process.
  • Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail has entered into a strategic partnership with Galeries Lafayette, renowned globally for its flagship location at Boulevard Haussmann in Paris, to open luxury department stores and a dedicated ecommerce platform in India. The flagship stores in Mumbai and Delhi will bring more than 200 luxury and designer brands under one roof.
  • Ircon International (IRCON) has emerged as the Lowest Bidder (L1) for construction of balance work of Bahuti Canal Project on turnkey basis including completion of earth work of main canal system from RD 18 to 74 km & other ancillary activities.
  • Lemon Tree Hotels announced its latest signing Lemon Tree Hotel, Tezpur, Assam. The property is expected to be operational by March 2025 and shall be managed by Carnation Hotels, a wholly owned subsidiary and the management arm of Lemon Tree Hotels.
  • UltraTech Cement has commenced operation at its third Birla White Wall Care Putty plant in Rajasthan with a capacity of 4 LMT per annum, at a total cost of Rs 187 crore. Now it has a Wall Care Putty capacity of 13 LMT per annum.




  • US housing starts tumbled by 4.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.425 million in October after falling by 1.3 percent to an upwardly revised rate of 1.488 million in September. Economists had expected housing starts to slump by 2.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.410 million from the 1.439 million originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims dipped to 222,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level of 226,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 225,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US Euro area inflation accelerated further in October, albeit at a slightly slower than initially estimated pace. Annual inflation rose to 10.6 percent in October from 9.9 percent in September. In the same month last year, prices had advanced only 4.1 percent.
  • Eurozone construction output expanded slightly after falling in the previous month. Construction output rose 0.1 percent month-over-month in September, reversing a revised 1.0 percent fall in August.










Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

CMP: 3125.10
Target Price: 3641
Upside: 17%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 3784.00/2835.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 37365.26
  • EPS (Rs.) 91.87
  • P/E Ratio (times) 34.02
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.09
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.09
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • The Company produces branded generics, generic drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and nutraceuticals, which it markets in India and International markets. With a portfolio of more than 800 brands in India, Alkem is ranked the fifth largest pharmaceutical company in India in terms of domestic sales. The Company also has presence in more than 40 international markets, with the United States being its key focus market.
  • During September 2022 quarter, the Company has filed 3 abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) with the US FDA and received 4 approvals (including 2 tentative approvals). For H1FY23, the Company filed 6 abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) with the US FDA and received 8 approvals (including 3 tentative approvals). As on September 30, 2022, the Company filed a total of 167 ANDAs and 2 new drug applications (NDA) with the USFDA. Of these, it has received approvals for 128 ANDAs (including 15 tentative approvals) and 2 NDAs.
  • According to the management, the Company has increased its market share across all acute therapies, anti-diabetic and urology during in September 2022 quarter.
  • According to the company, the India Business sales in Q2FY23 registered growth of 13.2% YoY (contributing 72.8% of total sales). Volume and new launches led growth in domestic market. It reported More than 3X market growth in anti-diabetic therapy supported by good launches.
  • Price erosion in US business impacted the margin; however, the company is optimistic about the India business where the input cost was compensated by better product mix. The management sees margins improving next financial year with cost reduction measures which the company has planned in the area of networking optimization and plant restructuring.
  • The company will be focusing on the molecules which have a large prescriber base, particularly antihypertensives and lipid management, in the Cardiology segment to drive the growth. It has launched Apixaban to stay competitive in anticoagulant therapy (cardiac). Besides, it has other cardiac products (olmesartan, telimisartan and rosuvastatin) which should drive growth in its cardiology therapies.


  • Regulatory Risk
  • Pricing Risk


The company has strong balance sheet and is focusing on improving margins with cost optimization going forward. New launches in the domestic market and focus on molecules, which have a large prescriber base indicate future growth visibility. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 3641 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BVx of 4.09x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.890.19.

P/B Chart

CMP: 244.45
Target Price: 290
Upside: 19%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 329.80/202.85
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 6874.78
  • EPS (Rs.) 13.64
  • P/E Ratio (times) 17.92
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.72
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.10
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • The order book of the company stands at Rs.8041 crore of which irrigation forms 24%, HAM Road projects at 48% and others Road projects at 28%. The company aims to add more business verticals to the organisation in the fields of construction of Elevated Metro Rail and Railway Projects. Recently, it has won New Projects Rs.765 crore, Six laning of Chittoor – Thatchur section (Package 3) in the state of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu on Hybrid Annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyoiana.
  • The management of the company expects its order inflow target of Rs. 4000-5000 crore for FY2023 and in line with that won new projects too. It also largely expects Rs. 3500 crore plus standalone revenue guidance for FY2023 and expects a 10-15% revenue growth for FY2024. The operating margins target for FY2023 is intact and is expected to be at 18-19%.
  • According to the management of the company, the order visibility improved and the company is focusing on securing EPC contracts, and capitalizing on the opportunity for huge Infrastructure development in the country which would give growth to the company. Most of these orders are expected from the states of AP, Karnataka, Kerala, and Punjab, where the company has a geographical advantage. Moreover, the company is also looking for diversifying its order book to water and urban infra projects.
  • Infrastructure is the backbone for economic upliftment of the country. Government has announced the Bharatmala Pariyojana highway development programme in addition to various other programmes to give impetus to economy. With the strong balance sheet and execution capacity KNR is at an advantageous position to bring greater financial prospects.
  • The company also has a track record for execution of projects before the scheduled timeline and receipt of early completion bonuses from the relevant authorities.
  • Net profit of company rose 40.20% to Rs98.51crore in the quarter ended September 2022 as against Rs.70.27crore during the previous quarter ended September 2021. Sales rose 14.20% to Rs. 961.65 crore in the quarter ended September 2022 as against Rs. 842.01crore during the previous quarter ended September 2021.


  • Working capital-intensive operations
  • Intense competition


The strong balance sheet gives it a key competitive advantage v/s peers: a) in bidding for newer projects, and b) in terms of strong execution despite financing challenges in the sector as the dependency on bank financing is minimal. Govt’s strong thrust on infra and NHAI’s strong order pipeline support growth prospects of the company. Moreover, the company’s order book provides healthy revenue visibility over the next two years. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.290 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/E of 16.23x and FY24EPSof Rs.17.85.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.



Beat the street - Technical Analysis


The stock closed at Rs 2925.50 on 18th November, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 2003.70 on 23rd June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 3659.25 on 10th January, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2659.79

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on chart which are bullish in nature. Apart from this, the stock is forming an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly chart which is bullish in nature. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 2870-2890 levels for the upside target of 3250- 3310 levels with SL below 2720 levels.


The stock closed at Rs 2699.25 on 18th November, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1988.55 on 17th June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 2918.95 on 15th September, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2494.77

As we can see on chart that stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows, a sort of rising wedge, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, it has formed a bull flag pattern on weekly chart and has given the breakout of same during the last week along with high volumes and also has managed to close above the same. So, further upside is anticipated in the stock in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 2650-2670 levels for the upside target of 2900-2950 levels with SL below 2530 levels.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Nifty took a pause last week after a four week of consecutive gains as selling pressure was observed at higher levels on the back of profit booking. Bank nifty however still managed to close higher in the week gone by with gains of nearly 1% as ICICI Bank, HDFC twins along with Kotak Bank gave some support to Banking index. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 13.15% while that for put option, it closed at 14.18%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 14.88%. PCR OI for the week closed at 0.88. Volatility was also observed during the week as tug of war among bulls and bears kept Indian markets on a shaky grounds. On derivative front, put writers’ added marginal open interest at 18300 strike while call writers hold maximum open interest at 18400 strike. Technically both the indices are maintaining their uptrend on the charts and expected to remain buoyant in upcoming sessions as well. We expect Nifty to continue its journey towards north once 18400 levels get breached decisively on a higher side.












Top 10 Long Buildup

Bottom 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 17th November, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering





Turmeric prices traded higher last week tracking supply shortages at physical market. Bleak production outlook for upcoming season supported by fall in acreages fear of fall in yield supported firmness in the prices. Considering the weaker supply outlook, turmeric prices are likely to remain firm in coming week. Turmeric acreages have dropped significantly in major growing states signaling lower production in upcoming season. Yield is also likely to be impacted adversely due to unfavorable weather condition in Maharashtra and other states. Export enquires are good at prevailing levels that will support gains in prices. Turmeric export surged up by 5% Y-o-Y in Aug’22 and increased by 15% Y-o-Y so far in year 2022. Turmeric NCDEX Dec Prices are likely to sustain the support of 7200 and expected to move towards 7900 in coming days.

Jeera NCDEX Dec futures witnessed steep fall last week due to profit booking at higher level. Recovery is expected in Jeera prices in next week in wake of supply tightness in physical market. Arrivals remained poor as stockiest are still optimistic and hording arrivals in expectation of further rise in prices. Total arrivals of jeera were reported at 8.3 thousand tonnes so far in Nov’22 compared to 18.3 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Stockiest are holding the stocks in wake of lower production amid tighter carryover stocks of previous years that kept total supply lower in year 2022. However, marginal buyers are going for hand to mouth buying due to higher prices as Jeera prices are still ruling much higher as compared to previous year. Jeera Dec prices are likely to hold the support of 23800 and will move towards 25000

Dhaniya NCDEX Dec Prices are expected to trade sideways may keep bias on negative side. Prices are likely to track the cues of ongoing sowing progress across India. Sowing progress has been normal so far and overall acreages are expected to improve due to better price realization to farmers. Supplies are adequate at major trading centers due to rising imports that is keeping buyers’ away from bulk buying. Dhaniya prices are still ruling above to the normal prices of dhaniya that will keep marginal players away from heavy buying unless prices show its normal behavior. Dhaniya NCDEX Dec Prices are likely to honor the resistance of 10800 and will slip towards 10000 level in near term.


Bullion counter witnessed mixed move thorough out the week where Gold is heading towards positive, but silver is bound for decline, weighed down by signals from U.S. central bankers that more interest rate hikes were on the way. Gold continued to be supported by rising recession risks, the stillevolving Ukraine war and the peaking of the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, growing optimism towards the Chinese economy, still high risks of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising rates further and more aggressively than the market expects, and a peaking of inflation in Q3 will continue to pressure gold. However, the U.S. currency was still headed for its best week in a month, as hawkish remarks from Fed officials and stronger-than-expected domestic monthly retail sales put the brakes on a pullback triggered by signs of softening inflation. Markets are currently pricing in an 87% chance of a 50 basis points hike at the Fed’s December meeting, after four straight 75 bps increases. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said the U.S. central bank should not stop rate hikes until it’s clear that inflation has peaked. Swiss gold exports to China and Turkey remained strong in October while shipments to India fell, Swiss customs data showed. On the technical front, COMEX Gold is facing resistance near $1780, as long as prices sustain below the level the gold prices remains pressurized, but break above $1780 may push the prices to $1820. COMEX Silver may take support near 19.800 and could face resistance near $22.570. Ahead in the week MCX Gold prices may take support near 50500 and face resistance near 53800. Silver may continue to trade in the range of 57400-64000 with higher volatility.


Crude oil prices headed for weekly loss amid geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe eased while rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in China risked hitting economic activity in the world's largest crude importer. China reported over 20,000 daily new cases this week, its highest rise in roughly seven months, making health authorities reluctant to review its strict zero-COVID policy which has slowed the country’s economic recovery. The market had seen prices rise after a missile crashed into NATO member Poland’s territory, near the Ukraine border, raising fears that the war between Ukraine and Russia was set to escalate. However, tensions have been eased after NATO officials stated that the missile was probably fired by Ukraine's air defenses by mistake and thus not a deliberate move by Russia. However, inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels both rose by more than expected, leaving an unclear picture. Still the supply picture remains very tight, and looks set to remain so with the long-awaited sanctions and price cap on Russian oil slated to go into effect in just a few weeks, on Dec. 5. Ahead in the week, crude prices may continue to trade with bearish bias where it may take support near 6300 and could possibly face resistance near 7000. Natural gas surged on forecasts for colder weather and as supplies from Norway, the continent’s top exporter, is crimped by outages. NatGasWeather sees “very strong national demand the next seven days.” Ahead in the week, prices may continue to witness higher volatility and movement is totally depends on the weather report and the possibly trading would be 470-530.


Base metals may trade with bearish bias as investors reckoned that China's easing of COVID-19 curbs were modest and would continue to curtail demand. Also weighing on the market was a stronger dollar index after solid U.S. retail sales data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials cast doubt on market bets that inflation is cooling and the Federal Reserve might pause its aggressive path of interest rate hikes. However any relaxation about strict COVID-19 restrictions and announcement to more support for its troubled real estate sector may provide some cushion the base metals. Copper may trade in the range 665-695. Weaker spreads in benchmark LME indicated healthier supply while rising copper output in China was also pressuring the market. The spread has expanded its discount to $35 a tonne, the biggest in eight months. China produced 953,000 tonnes of refined copper in October, up 10.9% from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. However, mining activities at MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas copper mine are operating at just 30% of capacity, due to blockades from nearby communities. Zinc can trade in the range of 257-282 levels. Lead can move in the range of 176-187 levels. Aluminum may trade in the range of 195-215 with bearish bias due to weakerthan- expected growth and demand led by the slowdown in China, an emerging recession in the Eurozone, and evidence of market oversupply based on stocks data. Aluminium supplies are intact as the LME has decided not to ban trading in the metal produced in Russia or store it in its warehouses. Steel long (Dec) is likely to trade lower to 41800 on NCDEX.


Cotton MCX Nov prices are expected to trade on down in wake of rising supplies at local market. Arrivals are expected to improve with advancement of harvesting activities that will put pressure on prices. Demand for cotton yarn remained lower amidst economic slowdown that sparked fear of recession across the globe hitting demand for textiles. Increased imports of cotton yarn in India also dampened the demand prospects as millers preferred imported cotton yarn due to higher domestic price. Cotton Association of India has reduced its demand estimates of cotton in India due to slack demand for yarn and cloth. The cotton consumption for 2022-23 is estimated at 300.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs compared to 318 lakh bales of previous year. Prices are likely to find support 29500 and will move up gradually towards 35000 in near term.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX (Dec) futures are likely to trade higher due to emerging buying in domestic market. Stockiest are active in the wake of lower production of cotton seed oil cake as pace of cotton arrivals has been slower. Firmness in prices of relative oil meals and increased demand at local market is likely to support firmness in prices. Prices are likely to hold the support of 2400 and will move towards 3000 in coming week.

Guar seed Dec futures are likely to trade sideways to higher due to emerging buying in local market. Downward revision in production estimates and emerging export demand of gum will push prices further in coming days. Demand of gum and other byproducts like churi and korma is also increasing as stockiest are active in wake of weaker supplies in the market. However, profit booking is expected during the week as prices have already jumped more than 20% in Nov. Guar seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5700-6200 levels.

Mentha oil (Nov) is likely to trade in mixed to positive next week. Prices recovery is expected in Mentha as prices are ruling near to the support of 950 levels. Production is lower and this has affected the pace of arrivals as well. Prices are likely to hold support of 950 and will move gradually towards 1010 in near term.

Castor seed (Dec) prices are likely to keep its bullish momentum intact due to supply tightness in physical market. Lower production estimates and tighter pipeline stocks will prompt market participants to enlarge long positions in castor seed. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to hold the support of 7100 and will face the resistance of 7700 levels in near term.





Contract: NOV
M*.High: 290.00
M*.Low: 248.30

It closed at Rs. 268.30 on 17th Nov 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 267.81. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.469. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.274 for a target of Rs. 252 with the stop loss of 282.

Contract: DEC
M*.High: 7605.00
M*.Low: 6508.00

It closed at Rs. 6720.00 on 17th Nov 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 7034.19. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.223. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 6850 for a target of Rs. 6400 with the stop loss of 7100.

Contract: DEC
M*.High: 7650.00
M*.Low: 6850.00

It closed at Rs. 7476.00 on 17th Nov 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 7433.44. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.232. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 7400 for a target of Rs. 7800 with the stop loss of 7280.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low




  • India's exports decline by 17% to $29.78 bn in October; trade deficit widens to $ 26.91 bn: Ministry of commerce.
  • India's April-October oilmeal exports up 38.45% to 19.84 lakh tonnes, says SEA.
  • India's edible oil import bill rises 34% to Rs 1.57 trillion, says SEA.
  • India's gold imports have declined by 27.47 per cent to USD 3.7 billion during October month : Ministry of commerce.
  • Procurement of paddy for the central pool in the ongoing 2022-23 kharif marketing season was 6.8% higher at 21.45 million tonnes as on November 7, compared with 20.08 million tonnes a year earlier, according to latest data from Food Corporation of India (FCI).
  • India turned net importer of steel once again in October. Steel imports in October was 5,93,000 tonne, outstripping exports by 2,33,000 tonne: Ministry of Steel.
  • India's wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) stood at 8.39 per cent in October against 10.7 per cent in September this year.
  • India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated.
  • The Centre has spent approximately Rs 10 lakh crore during the last eight years to see that farmers in the country are not burdened by the high global prices of fertilisers: Prime Minister Narendra Modi.


CRB was down with some downside bias. Dollar Index continued its previous week fall though the downside was limited. In bullion, gold continued its superfast move for third week whereas silver saw a pause in the rally on profit booking from higher side in MCX. Bullion rally saw a pause in international market after several U.S. Federal Reserve officials suggested that interest rates would continue to rise, pouring cold water on market expectations that the U.S. central bank would pivot. Base metals erased their previous gain and closed in red, weighed down by stronger dollar and weak global demand outlook. China struggled with rising COVID-19 cases this week, including in some big cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, fanning concerns about its economic performance. New home prices in China fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in October, according to data on Wednesday that underscored deepening contraction in the construction sector and followed weak manufacturing data on Tuesday. In energy counter, crude saw continuous decline whereas natural gas bounced back from the low. Crude prices slashed down with demand squeezed by mounting China COVID-19 cases and fears of more aggressive hikes in U.S. interest rates. Recession concerns have dominated this week even with the European Union's ban on Russian crude looming on Dec. 5 and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, tightening supply. U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 3% to a one-week high on Thursday as forecasts continued to call for colder weather and higher heating demand next week. Prices increased despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand in two weeks than previously expected.

Cotton oil seed cake saw some buying while cotton move was restricted in a range. Arrivals are expected to improve with advancement of harvesting activities put pressure on prices. However, losses were limited due to increased export demand of Indian cotton. Mentha oil breached the mark of 960 on enough supply amid import of synthetic Mentha. Castor continued its northward journey for the third week. Guar too continued its northward journey. In spices, jeera was down whereas turmeric was in tight range. Dhaniya saw some buying. Jeera prices corrected on muted demand at local market that sparked profit booking at higher levels. Profit booking is likely to extend further due to sluggish demand. Production outlook of Turmeric for new season is bleak due to lower acreages and possibilities of fall in yield.







Spot Prices (% Change)




Amid a flurry of the world’s geopolitical challenges, the global economy is suffering with two forces: rising inflation and declining growth. Both were started gradually with Covid-19 restrictions and now intensifying due to the continued invasion of Russia on Ukraine. In both cases, supply-chain disruptions caused the prices hike globally. As a result, not only Inflation rates have risen multi times in many advanced economies over the past two years, the IMF, World Bank and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have been shaving their growth estimates in each forecast on the growth of economies due to high inflation and slowing economic activity. A deeper energy crunch in Europe, an earlier and more painful recession in the US, or more pandemic restrictions and an uncontrolled slide in real estate in China could conspire to make even that uninspiring number unattainable. According to the IMF, global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 per cent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.

Inflation across the world

The IMF anticipates that global inflation will peak in late 2022, increasing from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8%, and that it will “remain elevated for longer than previously expected.” China’s “zero-Covid policy” — and its resulting lockdowns — continue to hamper its economy. Property makes up around one-fifth of China’s economy, and as the market struggles the ramifications continue to be felt globally. Headline inflation across the 19 countries that use the euro hit 10.7% in October 2022, the highest rate since the single European currency was introduced. Surging household energy bills and food prices pushed British inflation to a 41-year high. But in the US, the CPI data has fallen to 7.7 percent from 8.2 percent in the previous month, below the expectations of 7.9 percent. Chinese consumer inflation slowed more than expected in October, data showed on Wednesday, as renewed lockdown measures during the month, due to resurgence in COVID-19 cases. India’s retail inflation dropped to a three-month low of 6.77% in October when compared to the same month last year.

Rate hike to fight inflation

Hiking interest rate is main tool to battle inflation. Central bankers across the world started to monetary tightening by hiking interest rate to tame inflation leads slowing down the economy. Higher borrowing rates force the consumers and businesses to hold off on making any investments, thereby cooling off demand and hopefully holding down prices. The Bank of England has announced its biggest interest rate increase in three decades as it tries to beat back stubbornly high inflation. Fed increased its key interest rate from 0.25% in February to 4%. It didn’t serve the purpose properly as this time inflation was more driven by supply tightness as compared to easy money. Now considering

Possibility of global recession deepens

Recently, International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the outlook for the global economy had “darkened significantly” since April and could not rule out a possible global recession next year given the elevated risks of more universal spread of inflation, more interest rate hikes, and escalating sanctions related to Russia’s war in Ukraine.




Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian rupee started the week by exchanging hands below 81 mark per US Dollar, depreciating slightly from the seven-week high of 80.5 per US Dollar hit on November 11th as hawkish tones by Federal Reserve officials supported a rebound for the dollar. In the meantime, annual domestic inflation was at 6.8% in October, slightly missing analysts’ expectations of 6.7% and marking the 10th consecutive month where inflation surpassed the RBI’s upper target of 6%. Investors expect the RBI to raise its key rate by 50bps in its next meeting, adding to the 180bps in interest rate hikes since the start of the bank’s tightening cycle in May. The dollar stabilized just before weekend, supported this week by strong US retail sales data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials who pushed back against expectations of a policy shift. Most notably, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the policy rate is not sufficiently restrictive and suggested that it could reach the 5% to 7% range as authorities try to stamp out inflation, higher than what the market is currently pricing. Markets are betting that the Fed would deliver a more moderate 50 basis point rate hike in December and a series of 25 basis point increases next year. Still, the dollar index remained close to three-month lows after facing heavy selling pressure recently due to softening US inflation data, while traders look ahead to November and December inflation readings for confirmation of a trend.

USDINR (NOV)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 80.75 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.10 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 81.92 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.85.

One can sell at 82.00 for the target of 81.00 with the stop loss of 82.50.

GBPINR (NOV)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 95.80 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 98.25 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 94.77. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.81.

One can buy at 97.00 for the target of 98.00 with the stop loss of 96.50.

EURINR (NOV) is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 83.75 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 85.18 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 82.69. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 68.50.

One can buy at 84.50 for the target of 85.50 with the stop loss of 84.00.

JPYINR (NOV) is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 57.57 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 58.25 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 57.07. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 68.56.

One can buy at 58.20 for the target of 59.20 with the stop loss of 57.70.




KFintech receives Sebi approval for Rs 2,400 cr IPO

KFin Technologies (KFintech), an investment solutions provider for Indian mutual funds, has received approval from Sebi for an initial public offering (IPO) of up to Rs 2,400 crore. KFintech’s IPO will entirely be an offer for sale (OFS) by its promoter General Atlantic Singapore Fund. After the IPO, the equity shares are proposed to be listed on the BSE and NSE. The company received its observation letter from Sebi on Nov 7, 2022. It filed its draft prospectus with the market regulator dated March 31, 2022. The equity shares offered under the OFS have a face value of Rs 10 per unit. KFintech is a leading technology-driven financial services platform providing comprehensive services and solutions to the capital markets ecosystem, including asset managers and corporate issuers, across asset classes in India and provides several investor solutions that include transaction origination and processing for mutual funds and private retirement schemes to 22 asset managers in Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Hong Kong. As on December 31, 2021, the company provided services to 25 out of 42 operational asset management companies (AMCs) in India, representing 60% of the market share based on the number of AMC clients, besides, two new AMCs won, that are yet to launch operations, as on January 31, 2022.

Saree retailer Sai Silks gets Sebi nod for IPO

The largest retailer of ethnic apparel, Sai Silks (Kalamandir), has received Sebi’s go-ahead to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). Sai Silks, with saree as its main product, operates via four store formats, including Kalamandir, VaraMahalakshmi Silks, Mandir, and KLM Fashion Mall. As per the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), the IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 600 crore and an offer for the sale of 18,048,440 equity shares by promoters and promoter group entities. The market sources estimate the issue size to be at Rs 1,200 crore. The company will use the IPO proceeds towards funding capital expenditure for setting-up of 25 new stores, two warehouses, financing working capital requirements of the company, repayment or prepayment, in full or part, of certain borrowings availed by the company and general corporate purposes. Promoted by Nagakanaka Durga Prasad Chalavadi and Jhansi Rani Chalavadi, Hyderabad-based Sai Silks (Kalamandir) offers one of the widest portfolios of saree stock keeping units (SKUs) among women’s apparel brands in India. It also offers a diverse range of products which includes various types of ultra-premium and premium sarees suitable for weddings, party wear, as well as occasional and daily wear, lehengas, men’s ethnic wear, children’s ethnic wear and value fashion products comprising fusion wear and western wear.

Blackstone's India malls REIT portfolio Nexus Malls files for IPO

Blackstone Inc-owned India malls real estate investment trust (REIT) portfolio, Nexus Malls, filed draft papers for an initial public offering with the domestic market regulator. The IPO will include a fresh issue of shares worth up to Rs 1600 crore, according to the draft prospectus.








ICICI Prudential MF launches Nifty Financial Services Ex - Bank ETF

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched ICICI Prudential Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank ETF, an open-ended exchange traded fund tracking the Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank Index. The scheme will invest in the top 30 companies of the financial services sector except banks, based on free float market capitalization from Nifty 500 Index. The New Fund Offer opens November 16 and closes on November 25. According to a press release, Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank Index is relatively less volatile than Nifty Bank Index across all time frames. The index has outperformed both Nifty 50 index and Nifty Bank index over the last 10 years. “Financial Services have a huge contribution in the Indian economy becoming one of the fastest growing major economies of the world. There is an increasing participation from all parts of the society in Credit, Investments and Insurance and as a result the sector is poised to witness an unprecedented boom. We are also in the middle of a digital revolution that has contributed to the growth of financial services companies who are adapting to this change faster. The sector is on rise and the road thus far has been paved by various reforms, FDI policy relaxation, tax exemptions, etc. which will further encourage the industry to spend on expansion. Investors must tap into this universe of companies and gain from their growth through ICICI Prudential Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank ETF," says Chintan Haria, Head- Product Development & Strategy, ICICI Prudential AMC.

IDFC Mutual Fund launches two target maturity funds

IDFC Mutual Fund has launched IDFC CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL Plus Gilt– November 2026 Index Fund and IDFC CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL Plus Gilt– April 2032 Index Fund, openended Target Maturity Index Funds that will invest in constituents of CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL plus Gilt Index– November 2026 and CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL plus Gilt Index– April 2032 respectively. IDFC CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL Plus Gilt– November 2026 Index Fund opens on November 14 and closes on November 16. IDFC CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL plus Gilt Index– April 2032 respectively. IDFC CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL Plus Gilt– November 2026 Index Fund opens on November 14 and closes on November 16. IDFC CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL Plus Gilt– April 2032 Index Fund opens on November 14 and closes on November 28. The funds will be managed by Gautam Kaul and will invest in a mix of state development loans and gilt securities. “The recent increase in market expectation of further monetary policy tightening has resulted in a spike in yields, offering value amidst the volatility. The SDL strategy provides a relatively higher yield compared to G-Sec and PSU AAA bonds. Given the upward yield shift in the 3–5 year and 10-year maturity bucket, we believe IDFC CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL Plus Gilt– November 2026 Index Fund and IDFC CRISIL IBX 90:10 SDL Plus Gilt– April 2032 Index Fund could provide an attractive investment opportunity. In our opinion, investors could derive value from this strategy, given that we are in the last leg of the rate hike cycle. The funds are well-positioned to benefit from the market opportunity, making this launch very timely,” said Gautam Kaul.

HDFC Mutual Fund launches HDFC Business Cycle Fund

HDFC Asset Management Company has launched HDFC Business Cycle Fund which aims to invest in businesses likely on the cusp or in the midst of a favourable business cycle. The NFO opens on November 11 and closes on November 25. According to the fund house, the fund will manage risks by being adequately diversified across sectors / sub sectors / market cap, and across a number of stocks. It is therefore a well-diversified fund suitable for long term investments via both lumpsum and SIP. The business cycle investing may gain from dual benefits of earnings growth and improvement in valuations. In business cycle investing, one needs an agile investment strategy that dynamically rotates investments based on assessment of stages of business cycles. “In an era marked by increasing complexities and shortening of business cycles, positioning portfolios well should be a rewarding activity. HDFC AMC aims to support investors to stay ahead by using a blend of top down and bottom up approach, leveraging strengths in its research and fund management team. The launch of this NFO is a further step in the direction of being the wealth creator for every Indian,” says Navneet Munot, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, HDFC Asset Management.

SIP AUM hits a new high of Rs 6.6 lakh crore in October amid sustained retail flow

An unwavering retail inflow complemented by capital appreciation continues to benefit the funds linked to the systematic investment plans (SIP). The assets under management (AUM) of SIP funds reached a record Rs 6.6 lakh crore in October 2022 according to the data from Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). The cumulative twelve-month rolling SIP inflow was also at a new high of Rs 1.4 lakh crore with average monthly inflow above Rs 13,000 crore. Industry estimates show that nearly 90% of the SIP monthly inflows are deployed in the equity funds. The average SIP ticket size was Rs 2,198 in October 2022. The share of SIP AUM in the total mutual fund AUM touched 16.8% in October, the highest since AMFI started reporting the data on its website, compared with the long-term average proportion of 11.4%.The AUM of the SIP linked funds grew by 28.8% annually in the past five years, faster than the 13% growth in the industry AUM at Rs 39.1 lakh crore in the same period. During the period, SIP linked funds received an inflow of Rs 5.3 lakh crore. The number of SIP accounts have increased at a rate of 10.8 lakh per month in the past 12 months taking the total SIP account tally to 5.9 crore. The average portfolio value of the SIP investor is about Rs 1.1 lakh in October, 8% lower from the peak of Rs 1.2 in August 2021.




Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)





Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 17/11/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.