Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets ended the week on a positive note as better- I than-expected quarterly results triumphed investors' attention from Federal Reserve's rate cut pushback prospects. The U.S. manufacturing sector remained in contraction during January, while prices posted an unexpected jump. In a separate data point, the Commerce Department reported that construction spending rose 0.9% in December, well ahead of the consensus forecast for a 0.5% gain. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held interest rates steady and euro zone inflation figures gave a mixed picture. Euro zone annual headline price rises came in at 2.8%. Japanese stock market closed higher after a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's January meeting hinted the central bank is preparing to shift from its ultraloose monetary policy. In China, concerns rose after a Hong Kong court ordered to liquidate Evergrande Group whose most assets are located in mainland China.

Back home, domestic markets moved higher with an end to Budget uncertainty and amid strong global cues. Despite premium valuations, confidence is upheld among investors due to the some major announcement in the interim budget and recent set of results aligning with forecasts. The Interim Budget highlighted fiscal consolidation, infrastructure, agriculture, green growth, and railways. The Fiscal Deficit target for FY25 exceeded expectations at 5.1 percent of the GDP, with the FY24 target revised down to 5.8 percent. The FY25 capex target was raised by 11.1 percent to Rs. 11.1 lakh crore, indicating a focus on robust capital expenditure. The complete budget is slated for July, post the formation of the new government after the Lok Sabha Elections. Now the focus of the market would shift towards earning season and global cues.

On the commodity market front, market sentiments received a boost as China unveiled a significant 50 basis points cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and revealed plans for a substantial $278 billion stimulus package. The central bank's move, injecting around $140 billion into the banking system, sends a strong signal of support for the nation's fragile economy. This development is anticipated to keep crude oil prices in an upward trajectory, with current levels being seen as favorable for accumulation, targeting 6500-6550. Immediate support is identified around 6100-6125. Buying may continue in base metals counter. Bullion counter can see limited upside and gold and silver are likely to trade in a range of 61000-63500 and 70000-74000 respectively. The global economic landscape is marked by key events and data releases this week, including GDP growth rates for Italy, Germany, Euro Area, and Mexico, Consumer Confidence, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate, and Fed Press Conference in the U.S., as well as inflation rates in Australia, Italy, Germany, and France, along with China's Manufacturing PMI. These high-importance events are expected to exert influence on commodity prices.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Economy
  • According to a survey results from S&P Global, India's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in four months in January amid positive demand trends. The seasonally adjusted HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index posted 56.5 in January, up from an 18-month low of 54.9 in December. A score above 50.0 indicates expansion.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Tata Consultancy Services has signed a new 15-year contract with Aviva Plc, expanding on its near-two-decade alliance to service millions of customers of the U.K.’s biggest insurer and pensions provider.
Oil & Gas
  • GAIL Ltd. inked a long-term LNG purchase agreement with Abu Dhabi National Oil for the purchase of 0.5 million metric tonnes per annum LNG.
  • Mahanagar Gas has announced the acquisition of 100% equity stake in Unison Enviro (UEPL) for a cash consideration of Rs 562.09 crore.
Telecom
  • Bharti Airtel has launched seven new, next-gen company-owned stores in the city of Ahmedabad.
Defense
  • Paras Defense and Space Technologies has signed a licensing agreement for the transfer of technology with the Instrument Research & Development Establishment and will acquire the technology of a remote control border defence system.
Capital Goods
  • L&T has bagged a project to set up a solar power plant in Dubai. The order has been bagged by the renewable engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) arm of L&T's power transmission and distribution business.
  • KEC International has secured orders worth Rs 1,304 crore. Year-to-date, the company's order intake currently stands at Rs 13,000 crore.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Lupin has received approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (U.S. FDA) for its Abbreviated New Drug Application for Dronedarone Tablets USP, 400 mg, to market a generic equivalent of Multaq® Tablets, 400 mg of Sanofi-Aventis U.S. LLC. The product will be manufactured at Lupin's Goa facility in India.
Healthcare
  • Krsnaa Diagnostics received a contract from the Commissioner of Healthcare Services, Maharashtra, to provide MRI scan and CT scan services at 17 Districts in the state hospitals.
Realty
  • Sunteck Realty will develop projects of gross development value of Rs 3,000 crore at Nepean Sea Road, Bandra Bandstand.
Logistics
  • Container Corp signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding with Indian Oil Corp. to explore opportunities for use of LNG as a fuel, in petrochemical and other container logistic requirements.
Power
  • Adani Power entered into a Memorandum of Understanding to sell two wholly owned subsidiaries to AdaniConnex Pvt. for Rs 540 crore. The power major will sell a 100% stake in Aviceda Infra Park Ltd. for Rs 190 crore and Innovant Buildwell Pvt. for Rs 350 crore to AdaniConnex.
Hotels
  • Lemon Tree Hotels announced its latest signing – Lemon Tree Hotel, Motihari, Bihar. The property, which will be franchised by Lemon Tree Hotels, is expected to open in FY25.

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • The Federal Reserve announced that it has once again decided to leave interest rates unchanged. The Fed said it has decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50 percent in support of its dual goals of maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.
  • US construction spending increased by 0.9 percent to an annual rate of $2.096 trillion in December after climbing by 0.9 percent to an upwardly revised $2.078 trillion in November. Economists had expected construction spending to rise by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.4 percent growth originally reported for the previous month.
  • US labor productivity shot up by 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter after soaring by a downwardly revised 4.9 percent in the third quarter. Economists had expected labor productivity to jump by 2.5 percent compared to the 5.2 percent spike that had been reported for the previous quarter.
  • US initial jobless claims rose to 224,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 215,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 212,000 from the 214,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • The monetary base in Japan was up 4.8 percent on year in January, coming in at 668.019 trillion yen. That was well shy of expectations for an increase of 7.5 percent and down from 8.2 percent in December.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

MARUTI SUZUKI LIMITED

CMP: 10652.05

Target Price: 12263

Upside: 15%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 5.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 10930.00/8127.05
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 334903.19
  • EPS (Rs.) 380.25
  • P/E Ratio (times) 28.01
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.34
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.81
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Maruti Suzuki India Limited is focused on the business of manufacturing and sale of passenger and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells aftermarket parts and accessories under the brand name of Maruti Suzuki Genuine Parts and Maruti Suzuki Genuine Accessories. Its other activities comprise facilitation of pre-owned car sales, fleet management and car financing.
  • Company's capital expenditure till 2030-31 could be about Rs.1.25 lakh crore as it plans to enhance product range to 28 models from the 17 currently and expand production capacity. It is lining up capex to expand its total production capacity to 40 lakh units per annum.
  • The company would manufacture its first all-electric car, a sports utility vehicle (SUV) called ‘eVX’ from its Hansalpur factory in Gujarat in 2024-2025. The eVX would come with a 60kWh battery pack promising a range of about 560 km on a full charge.
  • The company has set up a new manufacturing plant in Haryana’s Kharkhoda in Sonipat, which would start its operation in 2025. The latest plant would produce 10 lakh vehicles annually.
  • Recently the company launched its premium UV Invicto as well, which is expected to further enhance its presence in the fast-growing UV segment.
  • In Q3 FY24, the net sale has increased by 14.57% to Rs 33512.8 crore compared to Q3 FY23. Operating profit margin has jumped from 11.53% to 13.25%, leading to 31.63% rise in operating profit to Rs 4,440.00 crore. Net profit increased 33.28% to Rs 3,206.80 crore.
  • In Q3 FY24, it sold total of 501,207 vehicles compared to total sales of 465,911 units in Q3 FY23, up by 7.58%. Despite the small car segment continuing to be subdued, Company registered sales of 429,422 units in the domestic market compared to 403,929 units in Q3 FY23, up by 6.31%. Its exports increased by 15.82% YoY at 71,785 cars, highest-ever in any quarter. In January 2024, it sold a total of 199,364 units, which is its highest ever monthly sales volume. Total sales in the month include domestic sales of 170,214 units, sales to other OEM of 5,229 units and exports of 23,921 units.
  • Recently, it announced increase in prices across models. An estimated weighted average of increase across models stands at around 0.45%.

Risk

  • Increase in commodity prices
  • Shortage of electronic components

Valuation

The company is expected to maintain its leading market share in the PV industry in spite of fierce competition thanks to its strong brand appeal, robust product lineup and capacity to release new models on a regular basis. Its revenue growth is also driven by the fact that it has the best distribution network and the highest penetration in rural areas within the PV market. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 12263 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on a target P/BVx of 4.5x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.2725.

NATCO PHARMA LIMITED

CMP: 859.15

Target Price: 1032

Upside: 20%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 928.45/502.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 15388.22
  • EPS (Rs.) 62.94
  • P/E Ratio (times) 13.65
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.91
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.65
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment rationale

  • Natco Pharma is engaged in the business of pharmaceuticals which comprises research and development, manufacturing and selling of bulk drugs and finished dosage formulations comprises of FDFs and APIs. APIs business is strategic and serves captive requirements and third party sales.
  • The company has manufacturing facilities in India which caters to both domestic and international markets including regulated markets like United States of America and Europe.
  • On the development front, the company invests US$2 million in Cellogen Therapeutics. It has acquired 5.38% shareholding of Cellogen for a total cash consideration of Rs 15.01 crore. The investment has been made to support development of affordable cell and gene therapies in India. Current available products in market cost around US$ 500,000 – 700,000 which Cellogen aims to bring down to US$ 60,000 – 70,000.
  • The company is experiencing organic growth in its Chlorantraniliprole (CTPR) business in India, and is also registering the product in international markets, with Brazil already completed. The management expects CTPR to contribute significantly to both the company's bottom line and top line, growing the business to Rs. 400-500 crore within the next 3-4 years. Additionally, the newly launched agrochemicals division is expected to see further growth this year, with revenue targeted to reach Rs. 200 crore in the current financial year.
  • It has recorded consolidated total revenue of INR1,060.80 crores for the second quarter of FY24 that ended on September 30th, 2023, as against INR452.6 crores for the same period last year, reflecting a growth of roughly 134%. The net profit for the period on a consolidated basis was INR369 crores as against INR56.8 crores same period last year, showing a significant growth of over six-fold increase from the prior period.

Risk

  • Strict Operational and strategic regulation
  • Currency fluctuation

Valuation

The Company has effectively established a local presence through its partners, ensuring sustained business growth.Additionally, NATCO operates in various countries, including the US, Brazil, Canada, Singapore, Australia, and Philippines, through its subsidiaries and step- down subsidiaries. In Canada, the Company boasts a strong product portfolio encompassing oncology, cardiovascular, and central nervous system (cns) therapies. The management of the company plans to focus more on markets like Canada and Brazil, which offer robust growth opportunities going forward. The company continues to lay good foundation for business growth in the Asia-Pacific region. The management of the company is confident for its business growth, order books and the earnings outlook. Thus, itis expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1032 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on two year average P/BV of 2.77x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.372.40.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED (CONCOR)

The stock closed at Rs.920 on 02nd February, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.555 on 29th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.937.90 on 02nd February, 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 752.

After taking support at its 200 DEMA on weekly interval, the stock has been consistently maintaining its bullish trend and can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher high & high low pattern. However, from last 6-7 weeks, the stock has been consolidating in broader range of 820-920 and seen stucked in a defined range. Last week, we have observed a fresh breakout into the stock above the Symmetrical Triangle pattern as rising volumes with price action supported the up move as stock also made its 52 week high of 937.90. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 900-920 levels for the upside target of 1075-1090 levels with SL below 800 levels.

INFO EDGE (INDIA) LIMITED (NAUKRI)

The stock closed at Rs.5177 on 02nd February, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.3308.20 on 14th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.5404.40 on 15th January 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 4536.

In the recent past, the stock has given a fresh move above its key resistance level of 4700 levels after a series of prolong consolidation phase. At current juncture stock can be seen rising consistently with formation of higher high pattern and maintaining its bullish run with prices holding well above its 200 DEMA on weekly interval as well. On broader charts breakout has been observed above the neckline of the Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Alongside, positive divergence on secondary oscillators with consistent volume activity also supports the next upswing into the prices after a breakout. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 5170-5180 levels for the upside target of 5950-6000 levels with SL below 4600 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Following a surge to another record high post the interim budget, Indian market experienced a significant profit booking in later half of the Friday’s session and, concluded the week with a gain of over 2%. In the previous week, major gains were witnessed by psubank, Oil & Gas, and energy sectors, while profit-booking activities were noted in the media and FMCG counter. In the Nifty options segment, the highest call open interest is held at 22200 strike followed by 22000 strike whereas on the put side, the highest open interest is at the 21,600 and 21,500 strike. For Banknifty, the highest call open interest is at the 47,000 strike followed by 46,500, while the highest put open interest is at the 45,000 strike followed by 46,000. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 13.57%, while put options concluded at 14.69%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 14.46%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.24 for the week. From technical front the immediate support for the Nifty lies in range of 21,600 - 21,500 zone while on higher side 22,200-22,000 zone would act as an immediate hurdle for the index. We expect market to trade in the given range with some intraday volatility. Traders are advised to focus on sector & stock specific moves and use any dip to create fresh longs as market undertone is still favouring a bullish moves ahead.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 01st February, 2024

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices witnessed sharp profit booking at futures platform as triggered with expectation of rise in supplies in coming weeks. Price spread between futures and spot prices at Nizamabad market surged up to 2200 against its normal value of 500-1000 that led to sharp correction in futures prices. On contrary, spot prices ruled firm on increased buying in local market. Supplies remained tighter in Nizamabad market due to delayed harvesting of new crop. Arrivals pace have been slower due to delayed harvesting activities in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Buying activities in turmeric have increased in in anticipation of fall in overall production as production is likely to be dropped by about 20% due to lower area under turmeric amid tumbling yield. Exports dropped in Nov as India exported only 8.58 thousand tonnes of turmeric in Nov’23 against the 12.39 thousand tonnes of previous year wherein total export during Apr-Nov’23 reported at 110.74 thousand tonnes as compared to 111.94 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 1% Y-o-Y. Exports are likely to increase as per export seasonality that will support firmness in prices further. However, new crop is likely to touch the market soon in coming weeks that will cap the excessive gains. Turmeric prices are expected to face resistance near 16200/16800 in the near term. Support is anticipated near 13600 in the near term.

Dhaniya prices traded on weaker note due to higher stocks in the market. Improved crop prospects in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh due to favourable weather condition weighed on market sentiments. Losses in dhaniya is likely to be limited in wake of weaker production outlook. Production is likely to be down about 10-15% Y-o-Y due to fall in area and yield. Apart from that prices may find support from the robust export demand. India exported about 3.05 thousand tonnes of coriander in Nov’23 as compared to 2.4 tonnes of previous year whereas total exports during Apr’23-Nov’23 was reported at 73.18 thousand tonnes against the 21.3 thousand tonnes of previous year up by 243% Y-o-Y. However, new arrivals are likely to commence in coming weeks that will cap the excessive gains. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7500-8430.

Jeera futures traded sideways to down due to higher production outlook. After persistent fall, prices may witness gains on improving export prospects. Jeera prices have turned competitive that lured exporters to buy Jeera at prevailing rates. Exports seasonality of jeera suggest that export demand remains higher during Feb-Mar due to strong demand prospects ahead in wake of series of festivals in Mar-Apr. Exports of jeera have been lower so far in year 2023-24 due to reduced availability. Exports remained unattractive during most of the time in year 2023 with unprecedented rally in jeera prices. India exported about 76.3 thousand tonnes of jeera during Apr’23-Nov’23 as compared to 115.75 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 34% Y-o-Y. Exports dropped to 6.2 thousand tonnes in Nov’23 against the 11.7 thousand tonnes ot previous year. Gains are likely to be limited in expectations of a bumper crop. Production for the year

BULLIONS

MCX gold, which found support around 61500 in recent trades, experienced a surge fuelled by weaker economic data and heightened tensions in the Middle East. While silver followed the upward trend of gold, its gains were limited. Silver closed the week just above 72000 levels. Gold prices rose, were undeterred by the Federal Reserve stating that it will likely keep interest rates higher for longer, while safe-haven buying amid an ongoing conflict in the Middle East also aided the yellow metal. Further gains in the yellow metal were held back by dollar index which was still trading above 102 levels. However, dollar Index saw a pause in four week nonstop rally despite the support of Fed. US Federal Reserve kept the interest rates unchanged at 5.5% and it doesn't see cut until more confident inflation nearing 2%. Gold’s recovery also comes after a rough start to 2024, with the yellow metal falling 1.2% as markets began steadily pricing out expectations for a March interest rate cut. U.S. rates are expected to remain high in the near-term, the prospect of an eventual decline in rates- which was also flagged by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a meeting earlier this weekbodes well for bullion prices. Silver may hold the $22 support strongly on better demand. The global silver deficit is anticipated to ease by 9% to 176 million troy ounces in 2024, with a 4% recovery in mine output offsetting rising demand. Gold and silver are anticipated to trade within the ranges of 62000-65000 and 68500- 74500, respectively.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude prices may trade with high volatility as the OPEC's decision not to make any changes in production cuts and positive predictions about China's growth may supportthe prices while reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, increase in non-OPEC production and sluggish economic activity in China, a key importer of crude may drag the prices lower. Marketreports said that a ceasefire in Middle East region could bring down the attacks on merchant vessels by Houthis in the Red Sea route. The International Monetary Fund lifted China's growth forecast this year to 4.6% from 4.2% in October, butthere must still be doubt aboutthis recovery given a property downturn, local government debt risks, deflationary pressures and weak global demand. JPMorgan said they expected China to remain the single largest contributor to global oil demand growth this year, forecasting oil demand there would grow by 530,000 barrels per day in 2024,following a 1.2 million bpd surge last year. In the Middle East, worries about attacks by Yemen-based Houthi forces on shipping in the Red Sea are now driving up costs and disrupting global oil trading. Looking ahead, oil prices are anticipated to trade within a broader range with increased volatility, with a potentialtrading range between 5900 and 6400. Natural gas declined in the week driven by forecasts indicating warmer-than-normal weather persisting through mid-February. The prolonged warmer conditions are expected to keep heating demand low, despite bullish drops in output this week and forecasts forincreased demand next week. Natural gas prices may trade in the range of 160 to 190.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade sideways with bearish bias due to signals of no U.S. rate cut in March, although tighter supply and positive data from top consumer China may provide some support. Global factories delivered a largely patchy performance at the start of 2024, surveys showed on Thursday, as new orders spurred momentum in the United States, but soft Chinese demand left Asia's economies on a shaky footing and disruption to Red Sea shipping delayed deliveries in Europe. Copper may trade in the range of 710-735. China's official PMI data revealed the fourth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity, contributing to investor disappointment and uncertainty about a turning point in China's economic growth. Copper consumption in the world's second-largest economy grew about 4.5% in 2023 as rising demand from the renewable sector offset a contraction in the housing sector, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Glencore said it produced 1.01 million metric tons of copper in 2023, down 5% from 2022 and compared to its previous guidance of 1.04 million tons. Zinc can trade in range of 212-230 levels. Lead can move in the range of 178-184 levels. Aluminium can trade in the range of 197-210 levels. China's imports of unwrought aluminium more than doubled year-on-year, reaching 1.54 million metric tons, in 2023 and were the second highest annual total since the start of the century. Japan's imports of primary aluminium fell by 26% to 1.03 million metric tons in 2023, marking the lowest figure since at least 1986. This decline is attributed to slow demand in the construction and manufacturing industries. Steel long (Feb) is likely to trade in the range of 42200-44000 levels with negative bias.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COCUD NCDEX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: : 2934
M*.Low: 2486

It closed at Rs.2521 on 1st Feb 2024. Relative Strength Index (14-day) tried to recover from the oversold zone valued at 32.57. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.2641. On the daily chart, Prices honoured the support nea near 2500 and witnessed increased buying interest. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.2500 for a target of Rs.2700 with the stop loss of 2400.

COPPER MCX
Contract: FEB
M*.High: 745.85
M*.Low: : 718.00

It closed at Rs.726.25 on 1st Feb 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.720.20 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.66. Prices honoured the trend line resistance near 736 and witnessed continuous downfall. Based on both indicators, it is giving a Sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.727 for a target of Rs.712 with the stop loss of 737.

GUAR SEED NCDEX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: 5762.00
M*.Low: 5318.00

It closed at Rs.5365 on 1st Feb 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.5473.60 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.9. Prices honoured the support near 5150 and witnessed recovery with gaining buying interest. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.5350 for a target of Rs.6000 with the stop loss of 5150.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • Global gold demand fell by 5% from to 4,448.4 metric tons in 2023 but remained strong compared with a 10- year average due to geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the World Gold Council said on January 31.
  • India’s gold consumption in 2023 is dropped by 3% from the previous year to 747.5 tonnes. Demand for gold jewellery in 2023 dropped by 6% to 562.3 tonnes compared with 2022, WGC data showed.
  • China’s gold demand was up 16 per cent to 959 tonnes (824 tonnes in 2022) toppling India as the largest gold consumer with their jewellery demand increasing 10 per cent to 630 tonne (571 tonnes).
  • Global crude steel production remained flat for 2023 compared with the previous year with an output of 1888.2 million tonnes against 1888.7 million tonnes in 2022: World Steel Association.
  • Water storage dropped to below 50 per cent of the capacity in 43 per cent of the 150 major Indian reservoirs this week as the level fell for the 17th consecutive week: Central Water Commission.
  • India’s sugar production (including the quantity diverted for ethanol) is estimated to decline 10 per cent to 33.05 million tonnes in the current season that began from October 1, 2023 from 36.62 million tonnes in the previous season: Indian Sugar Mills’Association.
  • Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled Aramco announced it is pausing plans to raise its crude production capacity from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million barrels per day.
  • U.S. crude production in November rose to a new monthly record of 13.31 million barrels per day: Energy Information Administration.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Market sentiments improved as China announced 50 basis points cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR), along with plans for a $278 billion stimulus package. China's central bank announced a deep cut to bank reserves, a move that will inject about $140 billion of cash into the banking system and send a strong signal of support for a fragile economy. The move aimed to stabilize the stock market and support economic growth. Gold rebounded on safehaven demand amid worsening geopolitical conditions in the Middle East, establishing a trading range of $2,000 to $2,050 per ounce; however on weekly basis it closed in red. Gold closed down for a second consecutive week on a bounce in the dollar index, while silver recovered on strength in base metals. Oil prices gained significantly on various positive triggers. The People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut reserve requirements for local banks, increasing hopes for an economic rebound in the world’s largest oil importer. Strong purchasing managers index readings from the U.S. and UK further supported crude oil prices, reaching near one-month highs. A significant drawdown in U.S. oil inventories and disruptions in crude production due to severe cold weather also contributed to the positive momentum in oil prices. Upside was limited as some U.S. oil production capacity returned after disruptions from cold weather, while Libya's largest oilfield resumed production. Natural gas and crude oil prices closed the week in the green. Industrial Metals prices also surged on reports of more stimulus measures in China, boosting hopes for an economic recovery. China also said on Wednesday it is widening the uses for commercial property lending by banks in its latest effort to ease a liquidity crunch facing troubled real estate firms.

In the agricultural sector, castor seed lost its gains due to muted export enquires of castor oil and meal. Cotton oil seeds cake traded weak. Guar complex weakened on bearish triggers amid sluggish demand of guar meal and higher stocks in the market. Turmeric prices found support, outperforming other spices because improved buying in domestic market. Tighter stocks in the market and expectation of rise in exports stimulated buying across the board. Mentha oil prices recovered from a low point due to reduced supplies in the market. Weaker production estimates and expectation of rise in seasonal demand supported the prices.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Global Gold Demand…… Resilient Amid geopolitical uncertainty

Yellow metal is always the prominent choice among the investors to park their money and diversifying their portfolio in troubled times of geopolitical uncertainty, pandemic related environment and global economic slowdown concerns. On-going conflicts, trade tensions and over 60 elections taking place around the world are likely to support demand this year and compensate for a potential hit to jewellery purchases amid high prices and economic slowdown.

  • Global gold demand fell by 5% from to 4,448.4 metric tons in 2023 but remained strong compared with a 10-year average due to geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the World Gold Council said on January 31.
  • According to the report, Central bank buying maintained a rapid pace. Demand from this sector reached 1,037.4 tonnes in 2023, down 4% from the 2022 record year
  • In 2023, jewellery consumption was steady at 2,092.6 tonnes due to 17% post-COVID increase in demand in China and despite high gold prices, the WGC said.
  • Buying of gold bars and coins fell by 3% as European demand continued to plummet, while outflows from exchange traded funds storing bullion for investors continued for the third consecutive year with 244.4 tonnes of decline.
  • Despite a Q4 recovery in electronics, the annual volume of gold used in technology fell below 300t for the first time in our data series.
  • Q4 gold demand of 1,150t was 8% above the five-year average. Butthis is 12% weaker y/y when compared with the record quarter of 1,303tinQ4’22.
  • Annual mine production increased 1% y/y to 3,644t, but fell short of the 2018 record. Full year recycling responded to high gold prices, rising to 1,237t (+9% y/y). Total gold supply was 3% higher y/y as a result.

Gold Demand in India

  • India’s gold consumption in 2023 dropped by 3% from the previous year to 747.5 tonnes, according to World Gold Council (WGC) data, as price increasedam p e n e d jewellery sales.
  • Demand for gold jewellery in 2023 dropped by 6% to 562.3 tonnes compared with 2022, WGC data showed.
  • The year, however, saw an improvement in gold investment demand, which increased by 7% to 185.2 tonnes, as consumers saw an investment opportunity in the uptrend in prices.
  • Demand of gold bars and coins grew by 7% year-on-year to 185 tonnes. Demand in the October-December period of 2023 touched 67 tonnes, 64% above the five-year quarterly average.
  • In the last quarter of 2023, local consumption of gold stood at 266.2 tonnes, down by 4% from a year ago.

Despite a temporary decline in gold demand in 2023, considering the current market conditions, the World Gold Council's outlook remains bullish, fuelled by the persistent allure of gold for both central banks and investors seeking stability in a volatile world. Early continued weakness in global gold ETFs is likely to see a turnaround by mid-year, aided by anticipated rate cuts and continued geopolitical risk. Bar and coin demand is likely to stay healthy and in line with the 10-year average, as Chinese and Indian demand strength offsets European weakness. Total supply is likely to rise with planned expansions and higher grades taking primary production to new highs, although a downside risk from disruptions may remain a factor. Recycling is expected to rise, as an economic recovery helped by stimulus measures in China could stymie overall recycling activity.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian rupee strengthened this week to close above 83.00, the highest level in two weeks, buoyed by positive sentiment post the domestic budget presentation and gains in Asian currencies. The rupee's gains were supported by the "double bonanza" of lower U.S. yields and positive sentiment following India's budget announcement, featuring lower fiscal deficit and borrowing targets. This move is expected to attract debt inflows into India. Technical bias is weak in the USDINR on a weekly pair as long as it stays below 83.20 as well. On the global front, the dollar index held steady at 103.00 ahead of U.S employment reports after a 0.5% dip on Thursday, influenced by a drop in U.S. treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. treasury yield, slightly higher at 3.89% in Asia, fell 10 basis points on Thursday due to safe-haven demand amidst renewed concerns about U.S. regional banks and higher-than-expected jobless claims. Euro rebounded from its 8-week low, tracking the drop in U.S. yields. The U.S. 10-year yield slipping below 3.9% in 2024 boosted risk sentiment. On the other hand a hawkish Bank of England lifted the pound above 1.27 against the dollar, and GBPINR tilted towards 106.00. BoE dropped its tightening warning, with Governor Andrew Bailey emphasizing the need for evidence of sustained inflation fall before rate cuts. The yen rose sharply as U.S. yields fell below 3.9%, later retracting from 3.81% to 3.88%. Attention is on the U.S. January payrolls and wage growth revisions which will guide the dollar move against a basket of currencies. Historically the dollar index remains bullish in the month of February in the last several years which we think may continue as the U.S economic data is likely to outperform its peers.

USDINR (FEB) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.2. However, the pair is in borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 36 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.6 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.3 levels.

One can sell near 83.1 for the target of 82.5 with the stop loss of 83.4

GBPINR (FEB) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.5. However, the pair is in neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 104.6 levels, while resistance is expected near 106.25 levels.

One can buy near 105.5 for the target of 106.5 with the stop loss of 105

EURINR (FEB) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.7. However, the pair is in neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 89.4 levels, while resistance is expected near 91 levels.

One can buy near 90 for the target of 91 with the stop loss of 89.5

JPYINR (FEB) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 57.25. However, the pair is in neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 55.8 levels, while resistance is expected near 57.4 levels

One can sell near 57 for the target of 56 with the stop loss of 57.5

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IPO



About the Company

Incorporated in 1987, Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited (ASPHL), is engaged in the hospitality business operating under the brand names of "THE PARK", "THE PARK Collection", "Zone by The Park", "Zone Connect by The Park" and "Stop by Zone". The company is also engaged in the business of retail food and beverage industry through its retail brand 'Flurys. As of March 31, 2023, the company operates 80 restaurants, night clubs and bars, offering a wide selection of culinary experiences. The company currently operates 27 hotels, which are spread across different categories such as luxury boutique, upscale, and upper midscale.

Strength

Built successful hospitality brands: The Company operates hospitality assets underits own brands, “THE PARK”, “THE PARK Collection”, “Zone by The Park”, “Zone Connect by The Park” and “Stop by Zone”. “THE PARK”, “THE PARK Collection”, “Zone by The Park”, “Zone Connect by The Park” and ‘Flurys’, are well established brands in theirrespective categories and have received awards and accolades.

High occupancy rate and REVPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) with a strong financial and operational track record: The company has a strong operating track record of high occupancy, competitive average room rates and RevPAR for its hotel properties, during six months ended September 30, 2023 and September 30, 2022 and in last three Fiscals. It has been able to achieve an average occupancy level of 92.76%, 91.50% and 91.55% for its owned hotels for the six months ended September 30, 2023 and September 30, 2022 and the year ended March 31, 2023, respectively. Its high occupancy level reflects its expertise and credentials in the hospitality sector.

High F&B and Entertainment contributions: Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels believes its F&B and entertainment offerings go beyond serving hotel guests. With high-quality food, excellent service, and inviting ambiance, the company draws in a large non-resident clientele as well. This broadens its customer base and strengthens its business model, evidenced by the sustained success of its F&B operations. The company boasts one of the widest culinary selections among local hotels, ensuring something for everyone's taste. Furthermore, its nightclubs and entertainment options enhance brand recognition and create cross-selling opportunities between rooms, F&B, and entertainment. This strategy has proven successful with established brands like Tantra, Roxy, and iBar, drawing strong demand from both guests and non-residents.

“Flurys” is an iconic brand with a successful and profitable track record of industry leading EBITDA margins: Flurys, a well-known retail food and beverage brand in India with 73 outlets across various formats, plays a significant role in Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels' business. Its asset-light model offers diversification, resilience, and scalability. Flurys contributed Rs. 19.49 crore, Rs. 15.60 crore, Rs. 38.21 crore, Rs. 24.60 crore, and Rs. 17.80 crore comprising 7.16 %, 6.54%, 7.29%, 9.18%, and 9.34% to its total income forthe six months ended September 30, 2023 and September 30, 2022 and the years ended March 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021, demonstrating its financial strength and potentialfor continued growth.

Strategy

Continued focus on the development of existing land banks and strategic allocation of capital: Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels (ASPHL) seeks balanced growth through owned, leased/licensed, and asset-light models. The company focuses on developing and expanding existing properties across all categories while strategically adding managed hotels. To maximize efficiency, the company leverages its land holdings, building on them at low costs per room. Recently, the Board approved construction timelines for owned hotels in EM Bypass and Pune, along with development timelines for linked land banks. Additionally, estimated commencement dates for managed and leased hotels were established.

Optimise capital efficiency through the adoption of asset light model: Drawing on 55 years of experience, Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels (ASPHL) excels in managing and operating properties. Its current portfolio boasts 23 operational managed and leased hotels (1,197 rooms) with 18 more under development (1,475 rooms). These future hotels, focused on the upper midscale segment, will operate under the "Zone by The Park" and "Zone Connect by The Park" brands. Maintaining a balanced mix of owned, leased/licensed, and managed hotels is key to its strategy. ASPHL remains open to opportunistic expansion based on market conditions.

Further develop and strengthen the ‘Flurys’: Flurys, with 73 outlets across cafes, kiosks, and restaurants, currently operates primarily in Kolkata and West Bengal(64 outlets),followed by Mumbai and Navi Mumbai (8 outlets) and New Delhi (1 outlet). Leveraging its hospitality expertise, Flurys plans to expand its retail food and beverage presence using an asset-light model, meaning outlets operate on leased premises. This model offers flexibility, resilience, and scalability. Flurys aims to open new cafes, kiosks, and tea rooms across various formats.Its expansion strategy targets existing regions (Kolkata, West Bengal, Mumbai) while venturing into Delhi NCR,Hyderabad, Pune, metro airports, and even international airports.

Risk factor
  • Delayed development of its hotels and land holdings poses potential risks for the company.
  • Nearly half (49%) of the company's hotel bookings and revenue in Fiscal 2023 comes through online travel agents and intermediaries.
  • The company's past investing and financing activities have generated negative cash
Outlook

Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels (ASPHL), boasting over 50 years of experience, has carved a unique space in the hospitality industry. Leading the segment with impressive occupancy rates, the company consistently outperforms competitors. A significant portion of its earnings will be directed towards debt reduction, leading to a healthier bottom line and lower financing costs. ASPHL's expansion plans are promising, paving the way for a bright future. However, potential risks lie in the delayed development of its hotels and land holdings, which require close attention.

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Mutual funds' collects Rs 63,854 crore through NFOs in 2023

Asset management companies launched 212 new fund offerings mobilising Rs 63,854 crore in 2023, marginally higher from previous year, on the back of significant uptrends in broader markets. In comparison, Asset Management Companies (AMCs) garnered Rs 62,187 crore through 228 New Fund Offerings (NFOs) in 2022. Further, they collected Rs 99,704 crore in 2021 and Rs 53,703 crore in 2020, according to data compiled by Morningstar India. "The trend towards the financialisation of assets in India is unmistakable. Aligned with changing consumption behaviours and a need for a higher standard of living, investors recognise the importance of long-term investing. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the necessity for financial planning and the creation of liquid assets to address emergencies and pave the way for wealth-building," FYERS Research said in its report.

Invesco Mutual Fund changes names of eight schemes

Invesco Mutual Fund has changed the names of eight schemes. The fund house informed about this to the investors through a notice cum addendum. The changes has been effective from January 31. These eight schemes are from equity and debt categories. These schemes are from focused fund, banking and PSU, ultra short duration, low duration, short duration, large & mid cap, aggressive hybrid fund, and fund of fund (domestic).

Old Name New Name
Invesco India Focused 20 Equity Fund Invesco India Focused Fund
Invesco India Banking & PSU Debt Fund Invesco India Banking and PSU Fund
Invesco India Ultra Short Term Fund Invesco India Ultra Short Duration Fund
Invesco India Treasury Advantage Fund Invesco India Low Duration Fund
Invesco India Short Term Fund Invesco India Short Duration Fund
Invesco India Growth Opportunities Fund Invesco India Large & Mid Cap Fund
Invesco India Equity & Bond Fund Invesco India Aggressive Hybrid Fund
Invesco India Gold Fund Invesco India Gold ETF Fund of Fund
Kotak Mutual Fund announces change in fund managers for six schemes
Scheme Old Fund Managers New Fund Managers
Kotak Emerging Equity Fund Harsha Upadhyaya and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities) Atul Bhole and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities)
Kotak Equity Hybrid Fund Harsha Upadhyaya, Abhishek Bisen, and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities) Atul Bhole, Abhishek Bisen and Arjun Khanna (dedicatedfund manager for investment in foreign securities)
Kotak Bluechip Fund Harsha Upadhyaya and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities) Rohit Tandon and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities)
Kotak Balanced Advantage Fund Harsha Upadhyaya, Hiten Shah, Abhishek Bisen, and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities) Rohit Tandon, Hiten Shah, Abhishek Bisen, and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities)
Kotak Quant Fund Harsha Upadhyaya, Abhishek Bisen, and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities) Harsha Upadhyaya, Abhishek Bisen, Rohit Tandon, and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities)
Kotak ESG Exclusionary Strategy Fund Harsha Upadhyaya and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities) Harsha Upadhyaya, Mandar Pawar, and Arjun Khanna (dedicated fund manager for investment in foreign securities)

NEW FUND OFFER

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