2019: Issue 715, Week: 23rd - 27th December

A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only)


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Contents


From The Desk Of Editor

I

n the week gone by, the market sentiment got further bolstered as China unveiled I a new list of tariff exemptions for imports from the United States, days after the world’s two largest economies announced Phase one of the trade deal. However, the global market shrugged off Trump’s impeachment news and moved higher. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on December 19 the United States and China would sign their so-called Phase one trade pact at the beginning of January. With the solving of the trade war deal, now it could be seen that metal sector has geared to be on the runway. The Bank of England’s (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its bank rate steady at 0.75% in a 7-2 decision. The central bank signaled it was still prepared to step in and lower rates in the event that conditions worsen in the economy.

Back at home, Indian markets continued to hit new highs, buoyed by positive global markets and on hopes that government would announce more measure to spur the economy in the upcoming union budget. The news that China has announced new tariff exclusions for some products from the US boosted the sentiments of the markets across the globe. According to the minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting released on Thursday, India has room to reduce interest rates further to arrest any further weakening in growth, but rising food prices warranted a pause in December. Market participants are waiting for fresh triggers on both domestic and global fronts for more clues. Progress in a U.S.-China trade deal remains a closely watched focal point for investors, given its implications for corporate capital expenditures and global supply chains. Any new developments around the US-China trade deal may also influence the market mood in the coming days.

On the commodity market front, Commodities closed this week on higher side; CRB closed near 195. Positive actions in trade deal stimulated buying in metals and energy, at the same time buying was also there in bullion counter on political uncertainties caused by U.S. House of Representatives’ voting to impeach President Donald Trump. On Thursday, China announced import tariff exemptions for six oil and chemical products from the U.S., just a few days after both sides reached an interim trade deal. The exemption will be in force for 12 months, ending on December 26, 2020. It will be a holiday shortened week on the occasion of Christmas in which very few data viz GDP of Canada, US Durable Goods Orders etc are scheduled. It is expected that we may witness a thin trading volume in Indian market as well owing to lack of cues from international market.




(Saurabh Jain)


SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

EQUITY



NEWS

DOMESTIC NEWS

Pharmaceuticals

• Lupin announced the approval of Mycophenolic Acid Delayed-Release Tablets USP, 180 mg and 360 mg. Lupin's alliance partner Concord Biotech (Concord) has received an approval for Mycophenolic Acid Delayed-Release Tablets USP, 180 mg and 360 mg, from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA), to market a generic equivalent of Myfortic® Delayed Release Tablets, 180 mg and 360 mg, of Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation.

• Granules India had conducted detailed analysis of its Metformin Hydrochloride for N-Nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA). It was concluded from the results that NDMAis absentin Metformin Hydrochloride batches produced byGranules.This was informed to the EUauthorities.

Information Technology

• Tata Consultancy Services has expanded its long-standing partnership with VIAVI Solutions, a global provider of network test, measurement and assurance solutions, to support the development of next generation products and solutions, leveraging technologies such as 5G, agile, automation, and IoT.

• Sterlite Technologies announced signing of a multi-year, multi-million dollar strategic digital transformation agreement with Telekom Albania, the first mobile communications company in Albania. Albania's telecom market is growing significantly and over 1.1 million subscribers are increasing mobile data demand. Telekom Albania has chosen to overcome any legacy constraints by moving to a digital platform powered by STL, to be designed, deployed and managed by STL and Cognity over the next 7 (seven) years.

• L&T Technology Services announced it has opened a design engineering center in Rockford, Illinois (USA) to cater to the new age digital requirements of the aerospace and defense markets. The latest initiative will enable LTTS to further build on the momentum gained by the company in the aerospace sector across the globe.

• Tata Consultancy Services has been selected by Petco,America's leading pet specialty retailer, to deploy TCS Optumera™, an Al-powered merchandise optimization suite. TCS Optumera leverages the power of Al and machine learning to localize and right-size store spaces, curate shopper centric omni-channel experiences, anticipate competitor pricing strategies in realtime,and enable optimal price recommendations. • Mindtree has established a new India-based centre of excellence, called Immersive Aurora,as a site to develop immersive technology experiences.

Mining

• NMDC has received approval for Modified Mining Plan of Kumaraswamy iron ore mines of NMDC from 7 MTPA to 10 MTPA from the Indian Bureau of Mines (IBM), Ministry of Mines, Government of India. The effective period of approval is for 2020-21 and 2021-22. NMDC operates the Kumaraswamy mines at its facility in the state of Karnataka.

Capital Goods

• Elgi Equipments announced that its US subsidiary, Elgi Compressors USA Inc. announced its acquisition of Michigan Air Solutions, one of the largest independent air compressor distributors in Michigan. This acquisition is an important step that Elgi has taken to expand its presence in the US and strengthen its position as a leading player in the global compressed air industry.

Realty/ Construction

• NBCC has bagged a nearly Rs 1,400 crore worth contract to develop 'East Delhi Hub' at Karkardooma in the national capital. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) between NBCC and the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) in this regard was signed in 2015.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• US leading economic index was unchanged in November after dipping by 0.2 percent in both September and October. Economists had expected the index to inch up by 0.1 percent.

• US existing home sales tumbled by 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million in November after jumping by 1.5 percent to a revised 5.44 million in October. Economists had expected existing home sales to dip by 0.4 percent to a rate of 5.44 million from the 5.46 million originally reported for the previous month.

• US initial jobless claims fell to 234,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 252,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 225,000.

• US industrial production jumped by 1.1 percent in November after tumbling by a revised 0.9 percent in October. Economists had expected industrial production to climb by 0.8 percent compared to the 0.8 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.


TREND SHEET


Stocks *Closing Price Trend Date Trend Changed Rate Trend Changed SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing S/l
S&P BSE SENSEX 41682 UP 08.02.19 36546 36300 35300
NIFTY50 12272 UP 08.02.19 10944 10900 10600
NIFTY IT 15845 UP 21.07.17 10712 15200 14800
NIFTY BANK 32385 UP 30.11.18 26863 27700 27000
ACC 1446 DOWN 04.10.19 1488 1520 1540
BHARTIAIRTEL 454 UP 15.03.19 338 410 390
BPCL 488 UP 30.08.19 355 470 450
CIPLA 466 UP 25.10.19 460 440 430
SBIN 338 UP 01.11.19 314 315 305
HINDALCO 215 DOWN 15.11.19 208 200 194
ICICI BANK 546 UP 20.09.19 418 510 500
INFOSYS 732 UP 20.12.19 732 700 685
ITC 241 DOWN 31.05.19 279 260 270
L&T 1312 DOWN 15.11.19 1378 1370 1390
MARUTI 7262 DOWN 06.12.19 6887 - 7350
NTPC 115 DOWN 16.08.19 118 120 124
ONGC 125 DOWN 06.12.19 127 136 141
RELIANCE 1599 UP 16.08.19 1278 1530 1500
TATASTEEL 461 UP 01.11.19 396 420 400

Closing as on 13-12-2019


NOTES:

1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.


FORTHCOMING EVENTS


Meeting Date Company Purpose
23-Dec-19 Cholamandalam Invest. & Finance Company Interim Dividend - Re 1 PrSh
24-Dec-19 Kesoram Industries Demerger
26-12-2019 Balmer Lawrie & Company Bonus 1:2
30-Dec-19 Piramal Enterprises Rights 11:83 @ Premium Rs 1298/-
30-Dec-19 Ingersoll Rand (India) Special Dividend - Rs 25 PrSh
Meeting Date Company name Purpose
23-Dec-19 NIIT Technologies Buyback
25-Dec-19 Karuturi Global Financial Results/Other business matters
27-Dec-19 Manpasand Beverages Financial Results
27-Dec-19 RITES Dividend
30-Dec-19 Balmer Lawrie & Company Bonus/Other business matters
2-Jan-20 Dr Reddy's Labs Scheme of Amalgamation,Scheme of Arrangement
3-Jan-20 Bharti Airtel Raising funds through Debt Instr
7-Jan-20 GM Breweries Financial Results
18-Jan-20 HDFC Bank Quarterly Results
22-Jan-20 Axis Bank Quarterly Results
23-Jan-20 EIH Assoc.Hotels Quarterly Results

4

EQUITY




5

EQUITY


Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis


ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.

CMP:498.25

Target Price: 564

Upside: 13%

VALUE PARAMETERS

Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 537.50/277.95
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 71541.34
EPS (Rs.) 7.97
P/E Ratio (times) 62.54
P/B Ratio (times) 9.87
Stock Exchange BSE

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

• The total Assets under Management (AUM) of the Company was Rs 165512 crore at September 30, 2019,which makes it one ofthe largestfund managers in India. The Company had a debt-equity mix of 53:47 at September 30, 2019. Over 90% of the debt investments are in AAArated and government bonds.

• The company continued to focus on savings opportunity through customer centric product propositions, superior customer service, fund performance and claims management. Protection is a big focus area for the company, while it has a multi-pronged product and distribution approach to tap this market.

The VNB (Value of New Business) increased by 16% from Rs 346 crore in Q2FY2019 to Rs 400 crore in Q2FY2020. The VNB margin increased from 17.0% in FY2019 to 21.0% in H1FY2020. The increase in VNB margin is primarily on account of increase in protection mix.

• The total premium registered a growth of 7% from Rs 7682 crore for Q2FY2019 to Rs 8191 crore in Q2FY2020. The Annualized Premium Equivalent (APE) of new business written declined 4% to Rs 1899 crore inQ2FY2020 from Rs 1985 crore inQ2FY2019.

• The Annualized Premium Equivalent (APE) was Rs 3369 crore for H1FY2020 as compared to Rs 3381 crore for H1FY2019. The new business received premium was Rs 5152 crore for H1FY2020 as compared to Rs 4277 crore for H1FY2019, a growth of 20.5%. For H1FY2020, based on Retail Weighted Received Premium (RWRP), the Company had a private market share of 16.9% and overall market share of 9.9%. Net premium earned (gross premium less reinsurance premium) increased by 6% to Rs 8064.71 crore in Q2FY2020.

• ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company has posted flat net profit at Rs 301.86 crore in the quarter ended September 2019 (Q2FY2020) compared with Rs 300.87 crore in Q2FY2019. The

Company registered 6% growth in net premium income, while the commission expenses were flat and operating expenses increased 15% in Q2FY2020.

• The Company's net worth was Rs 7260 crore at September 30, 2019. The solvency ratio was 210.6% against regulatory requirement of 150%.

Risk

• High Competition and Technological Innovation

• Cyber Security

Valuation

Strong growth in Value of New Business on the back of increased retail renewal premium will ensure healthy return ratios for the company, also rise in the working population category and per capita income would lead to increase in demand for life insurance products. The focus continues to be on growing absolute Value of New Business using the Four-P strategy of focusing on Premium growth, Protection, Persistency and Productivity. This has yielded the desired outcome and the company has been able to grow VNB with uncompromising focus on quality. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.564 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/BV of 10x and FY21 BVPS of Rs 56.36.

JB CHEMICALS & PHARMACEUTICALS

CMP:425.30

arget Price:477

Upside: 12%

VALUE PARAMETERS

Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 434.50/290.60
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 3412.46
EPS (Rs.) 30.37
P/E Ratio (times) 14.00
P/B Ratio (times) 2.15
Dividend Yield (%) 1.18
Stock Exchange BSE

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

• JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Limited (JBCPL), one of India’s leading pharmaceutical companies, manufactures & markets a diverse range of pharmaceutical formulations, herbal remedies and APIs. JBCPL exports to many countries worldwide with presence in US, Europe,Australia, SouthAfrica, other developing countries, Russia and CIS.

• It has a consistent, strong free cash flow annually, with a low debt-equity of 0.02x.

• With wide geographical presence in the international market, increased focus on ANDA filings, focus on new products introduction in Russia-CIS market, focus on lucrative contract manufacturing business backed by State-of-theart manufacturing facilities with approval from health authorities such as US FDA, UK MHRA, TGA Australia, MCC South Africa, MoH-Russia, Ukraine (PICs), ANVISA Brazil, MoH-Japan, and wide range of products across injectable, solid and semi-solid present a good opportunity in international business.

• It focuses on harnessing potential of existing products, launching of new line extensions and achieving of new line productivity will be pursued with scientific product promotions and aggressive marketing strategies. The stringent initiatives taken by the company have resulted in rationalization of inventory position and release of cash for growth.

• The future outlook for the industry and growth expectations remains positive in view of increased government and private spending on healthcare.

• During Q2FY20, Domestic formulations business at sales of Rs. 189.38 crores registered growth of 15.70% YoY. The overall strategy of expansion of field force is playing out well. Domestic sales of contrast media products at Rs. 14.98 crores were 11.90% higher YoY. Formulations exports in Global

business (other than Russia-CIS) at Rs. 116.42 crores declined by 8% YoY mainly due to 19% lower sales in US market. Sale of Company's South African subsidiary at Rs. 41.07 crores was flat.

• The company has a strong R&D and regulatory set-up for development of new drug delivery system and formulations, filing of DMFs andANDAs. It’s State-ofthe-Art manufacturing facilities are approved by health authorities ofregulated markets.

Risk

• Regulatory risks

• Currency Fluctuation

Valuation

The company accords high priority to domestic formulations business, which offers significant value proposition. During the current year, the company plans to continue to pursue focus on harnessing potential of the existing products, launch new products selectively and achieve increased productivity. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.477 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/Ex of 13.59x and FY21 EPS of Rs.35.12.

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.


6

EQUITY


Beat the Street-Technical Analysis

PVR Limited (PVR)

The stock closed at Rs 1832.80 on 20th December 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1345.25 on 13th August 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1898 on 26th September 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1673.94

As we can see on charts that stock is forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock gained around 5% and had given the pattern breakout and also had given closing above the breakout level so buying momentum can continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1800-1810 levels for the upside target of 1920-1960 levels with SL below 1750.

Shriram Transport Finance Company Limited (SRTRANSFIN)

The stock closed at Rs 1182.10 on 20th December, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 909.05 on 24th July 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1297 on 13th March 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1103.94

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on daily charts. Apart from this, stock has given the “Continuation Triangle” pattern breakout on weekly charts and also has closed above the same along with high volumes. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1150-1160 levels for the upside target of 1270-1300 levels with SL below 1090.




Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES



WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET


Indian markets hit their record highs and ended the week with smart gains as Nifty was up by nearly 1.5% while Banknifty also surged more than 1%. Among sectors, buying was witnessed in PSU Banks, Metal, IT and Auto counter while some pharma names traded under pressure. From derivative front, call writers were seen covering their short positions while put writers added hefty open interest at 12100 & 12200 put strike. From the technical front, both the indices have seen maintaining their uptrend, while trading in a rising channel on daily and weekly interval. However at current juncture secondary oscillators suggest that both the indices are now trading in overbought territory and we might witness some consolidation at higher levels and one should keep stock specific approach for coming sessions. The broader trend is bullish for the markets, thus any dip into the prices towards support levels should be use to create fresh long positions. The immediate support for the Nifty is placed at 12220 & 12150 levels. As far banknifty is concerned 32200 & 32000 would act as strong support levels. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.24% while that for put options closed at 12.15%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 12.12% and is expected to remain volatile. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.77.


DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES





NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)


CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)



BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)


CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)



8

DERIVATIVES



SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)


SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)



FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE


FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT



Top 10 Rollover


Bottom 10 Rollover


**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering


9

COMMODTY



SPICES


Turmeric futures (Mar) may continue to face resistance near 6335 levels, while the support level is near 6050 levels. We may witness a consolidation in the aforesaid range as not much business activity is happening on the spot markets. The stockists are staying away from bulk purchase due to lower quality supply. At Nizamabad market, arrivals are steady at 3100 bags, while at Sanglithe stockists are releasing old stocks, holding their good quality new stocks. Jeera futures (Jan) is expected to trade sideways in the range of 15800-16200 levels. The upside may remain capped owing to rise in area under cultivation. The acreage was at 375,533 ha as on 16th Dec, compared with 306,389 ha a year ago, state farm department data showed. The spot prices are also under pressure because of uncertain export prospects as the government has not renewed the export incentive scheme, which ended in July this year. The export volume for the current year is expected to be nearly half of what it was at the same time last year at over 1.6 lakh tonnes. This year, cardamom futures on the national bourse made a high of 3440 & currently trading near this level. The possibilities are higher, in days to come a new yearly high can be seen around 3600. Export orders from gulf countries, other than Saudi Arabia, and North Indian buying has perked up cardamom prices in the auctions at Bodinayakanur. The North Indian buyers for restockingcardamom following the fag end of the harvest season. Next year from January till April only inferior quality would arrive in the lean month. The new crop would be expected only by May.

BULLIONS


Bullion counter may trade with mixed bias as political uncertainty in US and Brexit concerns can result in safe haven buying. Meanwhile on US China trade war front mixed statements from US from both the US and China has been keeping investors on the edge. US officials mentioned that China will sign the phase one deal at the start of the January and the deal will not be subject to any renegotiations. China has announced a new list of import tariff exemption for six chemical and oil products from US, days after the two largest economies agreed on an interim deal. News of President Trump’s impeachment by U.S. House of Representatives can induce additional volatility. Donald Trump has become the third US president in history to be impeached by the House of Representatives, setting up a trial in the Senate that will decide whether he remains in office. A trial is set to take place in the Senate in the New Year but its timing is unclear. Gold may remain in narrow range of 37700-38400 levels whereas on the other hand, silver may recover towards 45500 levels while taking support near 43800 levels. After suffering several heavy defeats in the previous parliament, UK Prime minister Johnson now enjoys a large majority and should face little opposition in passing the Brexit bill. More than three years since Britain voted to exit the European Union in a 2016 referendum, the deep uncertainty over Brexit has been replaced by the firm deadline of Jan. 31.


OIL AND OILSEEDS


Soybean futures (Jan) has surpassed the previous high of 4370 witnessed during April’16 on the back of strong demand from crushing plants. Going ahead, this bullishness is to prevail till 4500, owing to domestic demand from livestock businessesamid tight supply from producing belts. The market participants are expecting soybean output to be 8-8.5 million tons, much lower than the official estimate of 13.5 million tons because untimely rain damaged the crop. Mustard futures (Jan) is trading near its 3year high of 4606 and the bullish trend is being attributed to firm demand from oil millers amid shrinking arrivals in spot markets, along with lag in sowing progress. Total area sown under rapeseed & mustard in Rajasthan, the largest producing state of the oilseed in the country, was at 21.71 lakh hectares as on December 16 in the current 2019-20 Rabi season, down 4.74% or 1.08 lakh hectares from 22.79 lakh hectares till December 13 a year ago, as per the state agriculture ministry's data.The Rajasthan agriculture department has set a target area of 25.50 lakh hectares for rapeseed & mustard sowing in the state this year. While, the total area sown under rapeseed & mustard was at 27.65 hectares in 2018-19. The edible oils on the national bourses are on a dream run like neverever; making new life time high’s every week tracking buoyant movement in CBOT soy oil price, trading near highest since Jan 2018 and based on the fact of Kharif crop damage as well as lagging Rabi crop sowing area. Coming week, soy oil futures (Jan) is seen heading towards 920-930, while CPO futures (Jan) will possibly test 760-770 on the higher side.

ENERGY COMPLEX


Soybean futures (Jan) has surpassed the previous high of 4370 witnessed during April’16 on the back of strong demand from crushing plants. Going ahead, this bullishness is to prevail till 4500, owing to domestic demand from livestock businessesamid tight supply from producing belts. The market participants are expecting soybean output to be 8-8.5 million tons, much lower than the official estimate of 13.5 million tons because untimely rain damaged the crop. Mustard futures (Jan) is trading near its 3year high of 4606 and the bullish trend is being attributed to firm demand from oil millers amid shrinking arrivals in spot markets, along with lag in sowing progress. Total area sown under rapeseed & mustard in Rajasthan, the largest producing state of the oilseed in the country, was at 21.71 lakh hectares as on December 16 in the current 2019-20 Rabi season, down 4.74% or 1.08 lakh hectares from 22.79 lakh hectares till December 13 a year ago, as per the state agriculture ministry's data.The Rajasthan agriculture department has set a target area of 25.50 lakh hectares for rapeseed & mustard sowing in the state this year. While, the total area sown under rapeseed & mustard was at 27.65 hectares in 2018-19. The edible oils on the national bourses are on a dream run like neverever; making new life time high’s every week tracking buoyant movement in CBOT soy oil price, trading near highest since Jan 2018 and based on the fact of Kharif crop damage as well as lagging Rabi crop sowing area. Coming week, soy oil futures (Jan) is seen heading towards 920-930, while CPO futures (Jan) will possibly test 760-770 on the higher side.


OTHER COMMODITIES


Cotton futures (Dec) is holding near the strong support near 19000, while on the contrary, it is facing resistance near 19345. The demand side, especially on the export front, is falling weak as it not being viable as compared to other regions. Currently, Indian cotton is being offered at 74 cents a pound, around 2 cents higher compared with the global market. It is reported that so far only 600,000-700,000 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) have been shipped out, and the total export contracts are yet to hit the 10 lakh bales mark. On the international market, the market participants are cautious as there has been only a verbal trade agreement between U.S & China but not a written one. The trade deal announced last week will be signed in early January, U.S. trade negotiators said. The National Economic Council Director said that the second phase of talks would start "pretty soon" but offered no specific date.Phase Two and its outcome will depend in some way on the success of Phase One. Chana futures (Jan) may witness consolidation for the fifth consecutive week in the range of 4380-4515. At present, there is lots of news impacting the sentiments from both sides. Firstly, the Centre offered to sell 8.47 lakh tons of pulses to States at average market rates and secondly the government imposed the CIF value of Rs.200 per kg as Minimum Import Price for peas. Furthermore, import is allowed only through Kolkata sea port. Mentha oil futures (Jan) is likely to face resistance near 1330 & may witness profit booking towards 1300. Lack of fresh buying at higher levels may drag down the counter on the national bourse.

BASE METALS


Base metal counter may trade with positive path. China's central bank lowered interest rate on 14-day reverse repurchase agreements in step with similar cut in 7-day repo rate last month. China’s factory activity showed surprising signs of improvement in November, while the United States and China reached n preliminary agreement to resolve their 17-month-long trade war that hurt global economic growth and metals demand. Copper may take support near 435 levels and recover towards 455 levels. China's refined copper output rose 19.6% year-on-year to a record monthly high of 909,000 tonnes in November, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The discount of LME cash copper over the three-month contract tightened to $6 a tonne, a level not seen in seven and a half months, suggesting nearby supplies are tightening. Inventories in warehouses approved by the LME dropped to 162,225 tonnes, the lowest since March 13. Meanwhile, lead may remain sideways as it can move in the range of 150-158 levels. Zinc may recover towards 187 levels while taking support near 181 levels. The spread between LME cash and three-month zinc contracts flipped to a premium of $10.5 a tonne after staying in discount for four sessions, suggesting nearby supplies are tightening. Nickel prices can move with upside path as it may recover towards 1080 levels while taking support near 1000 levels. Aluminium prices can trade on mixed path in range of 131-138 levels. Aluminum Corp of China Ltd, would pay 1.29 billion yuan ($183 million) for a 10% stake in regional aluminium producer Yunnan Aluminium via a share offering.

10

COMMODTY



TREND SHEET




TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS



COPPER MCX (DEC) contract closed at Rs. 445.70 on 19th Dec’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 452.30 on 14th Oct’19 and a low of Rs.427.70 on 04th Dec’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 440.66.On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.74

One can buy around Rs. 440 for a target of Rs.457 with the stop loss of Rs. 433.


CRUDE OIL MCX (DEC) contract closed at Rs. 4360 on 19th Dec’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 4372 on 19th Dec’19 and a low of Rs. 3866 on 31st Nov’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4230 on the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.87.

One can buy above Rs.4280 for a target of Rs. 4500 with the stop loss of Rs. 4180.

JEERA NCDEX (JAN) contract was closed at Rs. 16020 on 19th Dec’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 17100 on 04th Nov’19 and a low of Rs. 15520 on 16th Dec’19. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 15975 on the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.95.

One can sell at Rs. 16300 for a target of Rs. 15500 with the stop loss of Rs 16700.


11

COMMODTY



NEWS DIGEST


Ÿ The government has imposed the CIF value of Rs.200 per kg as Minimum Import Price for peas.

Ÿ The Department of Consumer Affairs that maintains buffer stock of pulses for the Union Government under the price stabilisation mechanism has offered approximately 8.5 LT of pulses to State Governments at average market rates.

Ÿ NSE has sought the SEBI approval to launch futures contracts of potato, tur, chana, and guar.

Ÿ Import of vegetable oils, both edible and non-edible, has dropped by 0.5% in November 2019 at 1,128,220 tons compared to 1,133,893 tons in November last year. - The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA).

Ÿ Import of gold in any form has been placed in "restricted" category from the "free" category, as perDGFT.

Ÿ The total value of shipments of India’s farm produce exports have seen a sharp decline in the first seven months of the current financial year, fell 16 per cent in dollar terms to $8.8 billion in April-October.

Ÿ China unveiled a new list of import tariff exemptions for six chemical and oil products from the United States.

Ÿ The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep monetary settings steady and maintain its upbeat view on the economy, suggesting policymakers are in no hurry to boost stimulus.

Ÿ U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley is building up its base metals trading business after abandoning it four years ago.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY


In the week gone by, Commodities closed on higher side; CRB closed near 195. Positive actions in trade deal stimulated buying in metals and energy, at the same time buying was also there in bullion counter on political uncertainties caused by U.S. House of Representatives’ voting to impeach President Donald Trump. Both gold and silver prices were marginally up. Gold prices were up by around 15% as a result of the Sino-U.S. trade war and the worries of its impact on the global economy. In the energy pack, both crude oil and natural gas futures saw fresh buying. Oil prices stayed close to three-month highs as the China-U.S. trade talks showed signs of progress. On Thursday, China announced import tariff exemptions for six oil and chemical products from the U.S., just a few days after both sides reached an interim trade deal. The exemption will be in force for 12 months, ending on December 26, 2020. Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs raised their 2020 oil price outlook earlier this week as OPEC-led output cuts and an improved global trade outlook led to more optimism. Base metals futures saw some buying on positive trade deal. The 10-year U.S. benchmark note is now yielding 1.94%, only three basis points below what would be its highest mark since President Donald Trump’s escalation of the trade war with China back at the end of July. The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index slid for a 12th straight session on Thursday, hitting a six-month low, as reduced seasonal demand dragged down vessel rates across segments. Cardamom was up on firm demand from Kuwait. The overseas demand was basically because of the delay in the arrival of Guatemalan crop and this would benefit Indian cardamom to get a due share in the export market. Oil seeds counter was firm as USDA in its latest report has lowered India’s soybean production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2019/20 (Oct-Sept) to 9 million metric tons (MMT) on 11.3 million hectares to indicate poor yield. The sowing progress shows that across the country mustard has been sown over 5.5 million hectares, which is about 80% of total area. Lower-than-expected output forecast of CPO next year in Malaysia and Indonesia boosted its futures prices. Inventories had fallen to a threemonth low in November, but the decline was slower-than-expected. Cotton was down. This season the supply side is heavier on account of higher crop at 354.5 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) along with larger imports. Chana had limited upside as to improve their availability, the Centre on Wednesday offered to sell 8.47 lakh tonnes of pulses to States at average market rates.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)




WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)


MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)





WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)



12

COMMODTY



SPOT PRICES (% change)




WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)


PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)


Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM)


Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), launched in 1998, is a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the global commodities market. Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is calculated on an excess return basis and reflects commodity futures price movements. The index rebalances annually weighted 2/3 by trading volume and 1/3 by world production and weight-caps are applied at the commodity, sector and group level for diversification.

Composed of 23 exchange-traded contracts on physical commodities, the 2020 target weights become effective January 2020. No new commodities will be added or removed as a result of the annual reconstitution.

The index is subject to the following requirements for diversification and minimum weightings:

• No single commodity (e.g., Wheat) may constitute more than 15% of BCOM.

• No single commodity, together with its derivatives, may constitute more than 25% of BCOM (e.g., WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil, together with ULS diesel and Unleaded Gas); and

• O• No group may constitute more than 33% of BCOM (e.g., Precious Metals)

Key Features

The index is made up of 23 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities.

The precious metals group weight will increase by 1.27% to 17.4%, led by gold.

The energy group will dip below 30% for the first time due to a weight decrease in all energy components except WTI crude oil.

WTI overtakes natural gas as the highest individual weight since the addition of Brent Crude in 2012.

Overall, BCOM will see weight increases in precious metals and softs, and decreases in energy, grains, industrial metals, and livestock.

Target weights of all BCOM components for 2020,as well as their comparative weights in 2019:

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES



13

CURRENCY



Currency Table


News Flows of last week


16th DEC Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI eased to 45.9 at 86-month lows.
16th DEC UK Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 41-month low in December
18th DEC Donald Trump impeached on two counts by House, setting up Senate trial.
19th DEC RBI announces special OMO purchase and sale of Govt. securities on 23rd December.
19th DEC Bank of England kept interest rates on hold despite weak economy

Market Stance


Indian Rupee lost the winning streak since the beginning of this week. RBI's consistent intervention to buy dollar is the prime reason for rupee not strengthening beyond 70.50 on spot. Benchmark yield cooled-off after an un-even move from RBI to launch OMO operation to cap the steepening of the yield curve amid the spread between repo and 10-Y benchmark is scaling higher to over 160 bps at a time when the policy makers remains accommodative. Meanwhile Trump became the third President to be impeached, decision made in the House of Representatives made less impact in the FX markets as Trump hold the vast majority in Senate to flip the impeachment trial which will begin in mid-January. Additionally Pound gave up election gain after Brexit legislation due to be published from Boris Johnson that would resist him from extending the transition period beyond December 2020. Bank of England latest monetary policy weighed sterling further after rate-setter said that expected gross domestic product to rise “only marginally” in the fourth quarter of 2019 but added that this was still consistent with its November forecasts, which predicted that growth will pick up in the spring, assuming “combined support from lower uncertainty, easier fiscal policy and somewhat stronger global growth”. Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s latest meeting said that despite a breakthrough in US-China trade talks and developments on Brexit in the UK, it was “too early to judge how material that would prove to be for the economic outlook”.

USDINR is likely to stay above 70.80 and move higher towards 71.50 in the next week.

Economic gauge for the next week


Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (DEC) contract closed at 71.12 on 19th Dec’19. The contract made its high of 71.2575 on 19th Dec’19 and a low of 70.8050 on 16th Dec’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheUSD/INR is currently at 71.23.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39.76. One can buy at 70.90 for the target of 71.50 with the stop loss of 70.60.


EUR/INR (DEC) contract closed at 79.2225 on 19th Dec’19. The contract made its high of 79.6050 on 16th Dec’19 and a low of 78.90 on 16th Dec’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 79.20.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.85. One can sell at 79.45 for a target of 78.85 with the stop loss of 78.75.

GBP/INR (DEC) contract closed at 93.1925 on 19th Dec’19. The contract made its high of 95.8650 on 16th Dec’19 and a low of 92.83 on 19th Dec’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 93.58.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.06. One can buy above 93.40 for a target of 94 with the stop loss of 93.10.

JPY/INR (DEC) contract closed at 65.01 on 19th Dec’19. The contract made its high of 65.1450 on 18th Dec’19 and a low of 64.8050 on 19th Dec’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe JPY/INR is currently at 65.35.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 36.44. One can buy at 64.90 for a target of 65.50 with the stop loss of 64.60.



14

IPO



IPO NEWS


UTI AMC files IPO papers with SEBI

UTI AMC, the largest asset management company in India in terms of total asset under management (AUM), has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the capital market regulator SEBI on December 19. The IPO of 38,987,081 equity shares comprises an offer for sale by five selling shareholders -- State Bank Of India (10,459,949 equity shares), Life Insurance Corporation Of India (10,459,949 shares), Bank Of Baroda (10,459,949 shares), Punjab National Bank (38,03,617 shares) and T Rowe Price International (38,03,617 shares).

Rossari Biotech files papers for Rs 700-crore IPO

Rossari Biotech, a specialty chemical manufacturer filed Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) for its initial public offer (IPO). The company seeks to raise around Rs 700 crore. The issue will comprise fresh issue of Rs 150 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 1.05 crore shares by promoting shareholders. The company may also consider a private placement of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 100 crore, as per the DRHP filed with the markets regulator Sebi. If the pre-IPO placement is undertaken, the amount will be reduced from the fresh issue. Rossari Biotech intends to utilise the funds for capex and payment of debts. Rossari Biotech provides customised solutions to specific industrial and production requirements to its customers primarily in the FMCG, apparel, poultry and animal feed industries. ICICI Securities and Axis Capital are lead managers for the share sale. Some of the significant customers for its textile specialty chemical products category include Arvind, Raymond, Ashnoor Textile Mills, Bhaskar Industries, European Textile Chemical and Shahi Exports. The company operates in India as well as in 17 foreign countries, including Vietnam, Bangladesh and Mauritius.

EaseMyTrip Files Draft Papers For IPO, Looks To Raise $72 Mn

New Delhi-based online travel startup EaseMyTrip has started the process of being a publicly-listed company as it filed its draft papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The papers filed with SEBI showed that the company is looking to raise INR 510 Cr ($72.13 Mn) through its initial public offering (IPO). Forthis, EaseMyTrip cofounders Nishant Pitti and Rikant Pitti will each sell shares worth nearly INR 255 Crthrough the offer-forsale mechanism.The company has told SEBIthatthe object ofthe public issue is to achieve the benefits oflisting the equity shares on stock exchanges.

Equitas Small Finance Bank files papers with Sebi for IPO

Equitas Small Finance Bank has filed draft papers with capital markets regulator Sebi for its proposed initial public offering. The initial public offering (IPO) comprises of a fresh issue aggregating up to Rs 550 crore and an offer for sale of up to 8 crore equity shares by Equitas Holdings Limited, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). Chennai-based Equitas SFB proposes to utilise the net proceeds from the offer towards augmenting bank's Tier I capital base to meet its future capital requirements. Equitas Holdings Limited (EHL) is the promoter of the company. JM Financial, Edelweiss Financial ServicesNSE -0.35 % and IIFL Securities are the lead managers to the issue. The equity shares of the company will be listed on the BSE and the NSE. Equitas SFB has been providing housing finance since 2011 through Equitas Housing Finance Limited (EHFL). The company has also been providing vehicle finance and micro and small enterprises (MSE) finance, according to the DRHP. As of September 30, 2019, the company's distribution channels comprised 853 banking outlets and 322 ATMs across 15 states and union territories in India, it added.


IPO TRACKER



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16

MUTUAL FUND


INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Edelweiss MF launches Bharat Bond ETF; offer to end on December 20

Edelweiss Mutual Fund on December 12 launched the new fund offer of India's first corporate bond ETF (exchange-traded fund) called Bharat Bond ETF. Subscription to this scheme will remain open until December 20. This ETF is an initiative of the Government of India, from the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM). The DIPAM had given the mandate to design and manage the Bond ETF to Edelweiss Mutual Fund. The Bharat Bond ETF will have a definite maturity period, just like the one for a closed-end mutual fund scheme. ETF units will be listed on stock exchanges. An ETF is a mode of investment that comprises a basket of stocks or bonds that are traded, similar to individual stocks, on an exchange during regular trading hours. An ETF is comparable with an index fund, except that the ETF is listed on the stock exchange and is traded. The scheme will have two variants - one maturing in three-years (2023) and the other in 10 years (2030).

ABSL Mutual Fund launches Aditya Birla Sun Life PSU Equity Fund

Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the Aditya Birla Sun Life PSU Equity Fund, an open-ended equity scheme that will follow the PSU theme. According to a press release, the new scheme will focus on investing predominantly in Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) or companies where the government is a majority shareholder with at least 51% shareholding. The new fund offer is open for subscription. It will close for subscription on December 23. The minimum application amount required is Rs 500 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter, during the New Fund Offer period. The fund house said they believe that the PSUs which dominate many key sectors of the economy would grow in the coming time, especially in industries where setting up a new business unit requires huge capital, regulatory clearances and/or expertise. Government policies, reform plans and economic growth agenda will trigger the comeback for many of these companies going forward.

NEW FUND OFFER

  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Mahindra Top 250 Nivesh Yojana
  • Open-Ended
  • Equity Scheme - Large & Mid Cap Fund
  • 6-Dec-2019
  • 20-Dec-2019
  • To seek long term capital growth through investments in equity and equity related securities of both large cap and mid cap stocks. However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be achieved

  • Rs. 1,000
  • Mr. V. Balasubramanian
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • Aditya Birla Sun Life PSU Equity Fund - Regular Plan
  • Open-Ended
  • Dividend
  • 09-Dec-2019
  • 23-Dec-2019
  • To provides long term capital appreciation by investing in equityand equity related instruments of Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs).

  • Rs. 500
  • Mr. Mahesh Patil
  • Scheme Name
  • Fund Type
  • Fund Class
  • Opens on
  • Closes on
  • Investment Objective
  • Min. Investment
  • Fund Manager
  • ITI Balanced Advantage Fund
  • Open-Ended
  • Hybrid Scheme - Dynamic Asset Allocation or Balanced Advantage
  • 09-Dec-2019
  • 23-Dec-2019
  • to seek capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related securities and fixed income instruments.

  • . 5,000/- and in multiples of Re. 1/- thereafter
  • Mr. George Heber Joseph, Mr. Pradeep Gokhale

17

MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts


EQUITY (Diversified)
TAX Fund
BALANCED
INCOME FUND
SHORT
Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%



*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully

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