• Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global markets moved higher on rising hopes of a US stimulus, I as the comment from U.S. President Donald Trump fueled hopes of fresh fiscal support, while data underscored the view that the labor market recovery was struggling to gain momentum. On the flip side, major European economies are warning of worse growth rates to come, downgrading already dire forecasts on the back of a second wave of coronavirus infections sweeping through the continent. The latest economic data points to mixed fortunes for the German economy; it reported Tuesday a 4.5% rise in industrial orders in August, from the previous month. But on Wednesday it reported lackluster industrial output data for August, having fallen 0.2% from July. China’s stock market looked enthusiastic after the golden week holiday amid positive economic data coming out from the economy.

Back at home, expectations of another government stimulus ahead of the festive season cheered the market participants. To note, the surge in global liquidity, balance sheet expansion by central banks, and stimulus measures by governments have contributed to the overall rally in Indian equities for the past few months. On expected lines, the Indian central Bank has continued with its pause stance while stating clearly that it will continue with the accommodative approach well into the next financial year given the significant uncertainty on the growth revival trajectory. The central bank has made it clear that the focus must now shift from containment to revival. Moreover, RBI’s move to rationalize home loan risk weightage and link them to Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio is expected to bolster the real estate sector with higher lending. Meanwhile, the GST Council could consider setting up a group of ministers to resolve the row over states having to borrow from the market in order to meet the shortfall in compensation. On the data front, the Composite PMI Output Index, which measures combined services and manufacturing output, rose from 46.0 in August to 54.6 in September. As per World Bank, India’s economy is expected to contract 9.6% in FY21. Going forward, investors would be looking ahead for the Q2 corporate earnings results. Besides macroeconomic data, crude oil prices and rupee movement will continue to dictate the trend of the market going forward.

On the commodity front, this week commodities noticed knee jerk reaction mostly on the news of Trump got Covid positive and his recovery amid his statement on stimulus it will come after post-election. Again he started talk on stimulus. This flip flop on fiscal policies kept the entire market jittery. CRB closed little up on improved sentiments. However, the chances of even these piecemeal packages being passed before the Nov. 3 presidential election are slim. Dollar index is trading under pressure and this is keeping commodities prices up. US election is getting closer and near the election time we may see higher fluctuations in commodities prices. Gold should remain trade with firm bias, nevertheless 52000 levels can play strong resistance for yellow metal. Many storms this year hit the US and disrupted the supply side and thus prices are expected to trade up despite muted demand. ZEW Economic Sentiment Index of Germany and Euro zone, Core Inflation Rate of US, Unemployment Rate of Australia, Inflation Rate and New Yuan Loans of China, Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment of US and inflation data from many countries will pave the path for next move in commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.



  • The Reserve Bank of India decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 percent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying more rate cuts in the future if the need arises to support the economy hit by the COVID-19 crisis. The RBI projected gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 9.5 per cent in the current financial year amid disruptions caused by coronavirus pandemic which may turn positive in the last quarter (January to March).
  • Reliance Industries announced that a wholly-owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) will invest Rs 5,512.50 crore (1.20 per cent equity stake) in its retail arm, Reliance Retail Ventures.
Information Technology
  • Infosys announced a definitive agreement to acquire Blue Acorn iCi, Adobe Platinum partner in the US, and a leader in digital customer experience, commerce and analytics. The move further strengthens Infosys' end-to-end customer experience offerings and demonstrates its continued commitment to help clients navigate their digital transformation journey
  • J K Cements has successfully commissioned 0.7 Million Tonne Per Annum Grey Cement grinding capacity at J K Cement Works, Balasinor, Gujrat, unit of the company and also commenced commercial despatches. With this the Company has successfully completed its Grey Cement capacity expansion of 4.2 Million Tonnes Per Annum comprising in Rajasthan (2 MnTPA), Uttar Pradesh (1.5 MnTPA) and Gujrat (0.7 MnTPA).
  • Zydus Cadila announced that it is launching Forglyn pMDI, India's first pressurized Metered Dose Inhaler (pMDI) with a combination of Long Acting MuscarinicAntagonist(LAMA) and LongActing BetaAgonist(LABA) for patients suffering from ChronicObstructive PulmonaryDisease (COPD)in India.
Capital Goods
  • GMM Pfaudler had acquired De Dietrich Process Systems India's (DDPSI) Glass Lined Equipment manufacturing facility in Hyderabad on the 01 July 2020. This state of the art facility, located at Nacharam Industrial Estate, is spread across an area of 6 acres. This facility was formally inaugurated on 6 October 2020 signaling GMM Pfaudler's long term commitment towards meeting the demands of its ever-increasing customer base.
Consumer Durables
  • Dixon Technologies will begin operations in its 11th manufacturing facility - its third dedicated plant for assembling mobile phones - in Noida by January next year entailing an investment of Rs 75 crore. The new plant will create more than 4000 direct jobs, including 900 in the first year.
  • US initial jobless claims edged down to 840,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 849,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 820,000 from the 837,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US factory orders rose by 0.7 percent in August after soaring by an upwardly revised 6.5 percent in July. Economists had expected orders to jump by 1.0 percent compared to the 6.4 percent spike originally reported for the previous month.
  • US services PMI rose inched up 57.8 in September from 56.9 in August, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the service sector. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 56.3.
  • China's service sector registered a strong growth in business activity in September, signaling a further recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, survey data from IHS Markit. The Caixin composite services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 54.8 in September from 54.0 in August. This was the fifth consecutive increase in service sector output.
  • Japan posted a current account surplus of 2,102.8 billion yen in August, down 1.5 percent on year. That exceeded expectations for a surplus of 1,983.7 billion yen following the 1,468.3 billion yen surplus in July













Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

CMP: 722.70
Target Price: 858
Upside: 19%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 838.00/400.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 21190.17
  • EPS (Rs.) 42.74
  • P/E Ratio (times) 16.91
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.91
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.63
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • Coromandel International Limited, a flagship of Murugappa group, is India’s second largest Phosphatic fertilizer player & produces Fertilizers, Specialty Nutrients & Crop Protection. The company manufactures a wide range of fertilizers and markets around 4.5 million tons making it a leader in fertilizer markets.
  • On the development front, it has strengthened its marketing and farm outreach and has re-launched its fertilizer underthe brand name called ‘Gromor Smart’ which has been very well accepted by the farmers. Production for the newly commissioned phosphatic acid plant at Vizag has stabilized. Withthis, Vizagplanthas become fully self-sufficient for its phosphatic acid requirements. Other major infrastructure projects were improving capacity, storage, and efficiencies are progressing well. Moreover, the acquisition of the bio pesticides business of EID Parry is also enhancing its market presence in North America & Europe and push incremental revenues from the crop protection segment.
  • During the June quarter, the Nutrient & Allied Businesses segment registered a very good performance during the quarter. Market share increased to 16% during the quarter vs. 13.2% during the corresponding period prior year.
  • Crop Protection segment also had a very good quarter and registered a strong growth of 54% across both exports and domestic market. The business is accelerating its efforts on new product development and strengthening its strategic tie ups with global players. Speciality Nutrients and Organic fertilizers continued to grow stronger with the focused product approach. The new products introduced in Fertilizer, Single Super Phosphates, Speciality Nutrients and Crop Protection businesses gained momentum and continued to help farmers in providing superior nutrition and integrated pestmanagement solutions.
  • During Q1FY21, it has registered a strong performance driven by its continuous emphasis on superior sales, mix, and farm connecting initiatives, increased operational efficiencies, and better working capital management. Better than normal rainfall in its key markets, good soil moisture conditions and proactive steps taken by the government in procuring the bumper Rabi harvest, led to positive sentiments in the farming community resulting in early demand for agricultural inputs.


  • Increase in commodity prices
  • Foreign exchange fluctuations


The company continues to invest towards infrastructure augmentation and capability development to offer differentiated solution to the farming community. Government’s ambitious plan to double the farm income by 2022 & fixation of the minimum support prices for crops at 1.5 times the cost of production brings out a sizeable opportunity for the company. Also, increase in prices of higher-fertilizerconsuming crops such as paddy, soybean and sugarcane augurs well for the company. It is expected that the company is well-positioned for holistic growth, led by increased volumes and higher realizations. It is expected thatthe stock will see a price target of Rs.858 in 8 to 10 months time frame on five year average P/E of 19.45 and FY21 EPS of Rs.44.09.

P/E Chart

CMP: 780.60
Target Price: 879
Upside: 13%
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 918.00/406.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 14580.98
  • EPS (Rs.) 14.29
  • P/E Ratio (times) 54.63
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.38
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.27
  • Stock Exchange BSE

Investment Rationale

  • Dalmia Bharat is a cement manufacturing company based in India. Its segments include cement, refractory andpower. With a track record of seven decades, the DBL group is the fourth-largest cement player by capacity in India with an operational capacity of 26.5 million tonne perannum (MTPA) as on March 31, 2020.
  • It has diversified its presence over the past decade with capacities now in the south (46% of total capacity; in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka); the east (39%; in Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar); and north-east (15%; in Assam and Meghalaya). It has outperformed the market, with revenue growing faster than overall cement demand over the past eight years, resulting in market share gains across its key markets.
  • The company’s setting up a 7.8 MTPA cement capacity in the eastern market (5.3 MTPAbrownfield, 2.5 MTPA greenfield), which should consolidate its position there as the eastern region has a healthy demand outlook for the medium term. Additionally, the group plans to expand its presence in the western market through the acquisition of a 3-MTPA cement plant of Murli Industries Ltd (Murli), and expects revenue generation from the plant from fiscal 2022.
  • The increasing focus of the government on affordable housing and infrastructure creation, the cement industry is expected to record reasonable growth once the impact of the pandemic recedes and the company is likely to get the benefit.
  • The company has reported a 23.68 percent increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 188 crore for the first quarter ended June 2020, driven by price increase and cost optimisation. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 152 crore during April-June quarter in the previous fiscal. Revenue from operations declined 22.19 per cent to Rs 1,974 crore during the quarter under review as against Rs 2,537 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.


  • Intensifying competition
  • Slowdown in the economy


The company will continue to benefit from its healthy market position, robust operating efficiency and strong liquidity. However, the company expects the government’s push towards big infrastructure projects and affordable housing to help the industry to come back on the growth trajectory. There could be a lot of pent-up demand for cement, which would lead to a sharp recovery in volumes once the nationwide lockdown is lifted and normalcy returns. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.879 in 8 to 10 months time frame on an average P/BV of 1.55x and FY22 BVPS of Rs.606.07.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months



Beat the street - Technical Analysis

Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (M&M)

The stock closed at Rs 633.20 on 09th October 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 245.40 on 25th March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 666.60 on 21st September, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 549.97

After forming reversal candle on weekly charts, stock is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows and forming a “Bull Flag” pattern, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, stock couldn’t give the pattern breakout but managed to close in positive territory with decent volumes, so further buying is anticipated in the stock in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 620-628 levels for the upside target of 680-690 levels with SL below 590.

UltraTech Cement Limited (ULTRACEMCO)

The stock closed at Rs 4298.35 on 09th October, 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 2910 on 20th March, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 4754.10 on 27th January, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 3943.92

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, it has formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern and has given the neckline breakout of pattern along with high volumes and also has managed to close above the same so buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 4260-4280 levels for the upside target of 4600-4700 levels with SL below 4050.

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.


Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months




Bullish momentum remained intact in Indian markets in the week gone by as Nifty surpassed 11900 levels while bank nifty also closed above 23800 levels with gains seen in some of leading names like HDFC twins, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank. Nifty witnessed gains of more than 4% while Bank Nifty remained out-performer with gains of more than 7% week on week. From derivative front, once again short covering was seen by call writers at 11800 strike and put writers seen shifting to higher bands which suggests bullish momentum to remain intact in coming week as well. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 17.54% while that for put options closed at 18.97 The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 20.38%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.50 up from the previous week indicating put writing. For upcoming sessions we expect Bank Nifty to outperform the markets once again as from technical front Bank Nifty has managed to close above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts and given breakout above the same with marginally higher volumes. The immediate hurdle for Nifty is placed at 12000 levels while for bank nifty 24000 to 24400 zone is immediate resistance.












Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 08th October, 2020

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering





Turmeric futures (Nov) is expected to decline towards 5700 taking negative cues from the spot markets. Despite the fact that the arrivals of turmeric at the four turmeric markets at Erode had decreased, prices are not showing signs of improvement. Around 1,700-1800 bags of medium-quality turmeric are arriving for sale, of which buyers are purchasing 1,100-1200 bags of turmeric. With only local and little upcountry demand, they are very cautious in their purchase. The buyers are quoting slightly increased prices for goodquality turmeric of the medium variety finger turmeric. For lack of demand, limited stocks are being purchased by the stockists. Turmeric growers, too, brought a limited produce to get feasible prices. At the Erode Cooperative Marketing Society, finger turmeric was sold at Rs.4,674-5,669 a quintal, and the root variety was sold at Rs.4,799- 5,589 a quintal. Jeera futures (Nov) is likely to consolidate in the range of 13500-13900 with upside getting capped. The weakness in spot markets is due to frail domestic buying and slowdown in export demand. Amid steady arrivals of 14,000 bags of jeera, all the varieties are showing a downtrend. Dhaniya futures (Nov) taking support near 6700 may trade higher towards 6800-6900 levels. On the spot, festive demand has brought back cheers to coriander once again as spice manufacturers are engaged in aggressive buying and there has been a shortage of premium quality supplies. It is to be noted that demand has come back with M.P mandis resuming operations after nearly 2 weeks of strike in the state. Meanwhile traders in Rajasthan are gearing up now to stage protests, seeking reduction in mandi fees.


Bullion counter prices rose due to a weaker dollar and headed for a second straight weekly gain, with the metal’s appeal as an inflation hedge bolstered by renewed optimism over a new U.S. coronavirus relief package. The dollar index dropped against rivals, en route to a second straight weekly fall. With renewed hopes for another fiscal stimulus, we saw the dollar decline, inflation expectations pick up and risk returning to the table. All these factors are pushing gold higher. Talks resumed between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over the coronavirus aid plan. A widening lead for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden was also seen as opening the way for a big economic stimulus. The World Gold Council said, the metal’s appeal, gold-backed ETF’s added more than 1,000 tonnes of bullion worth $60 billion to their stockpile in the first 9 months of 2020. The world's central banks sold more gold in August than they bought, the WGC said, ending a year-and-a-half-long run of monthly gold accumulation and helping stall a rapid rise in gold prices. Meanwhile, reinforcing the economic damage from the coronavirus, data showed the euro zone’s economic recovery faltered in September. Investors are now focused on new U.S. coronavirus relief aid aimed at cushioning the economic blow from the pandemic. The uncertainty from the upcoming U.S. elections would keep gold supported. Investors now wait minutes from U.S. Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 policy meeting. This week, gold may trade in the range of 48200-52800 and Silver may trade in the range of 56000-65800. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1865-$1940 and Silver may trade in the range of $20.80-$27.10.


Soybean futures (Nov) is looking bullish and has further room upside to move higher towards 4100-4200. The gap between demand and supply for this oilseed has increased in the domestic as well as in the international market. Farmers in different parts of Madhya Pradesh told the Thomson Reuters Foundation they had lost as much as 90% of their soybean crop. On the demand side, the FOB spread between Indian Soymeal DOC and Argentina Soymeal DOC is $25 as of 9th Oct. This has enabled more exports demand for Indian DOC leading to stronger soybean demand in the local market. On CBOT, U.S soybean is trading near its highest in more than 2-1/2 years on the back of robust sales to China and Mexico. The sales come amid concerns about soybean planting delays due to dry weather in Brazil. On the contrary, Mustard futures (Nov) may witness correction and decline towards 5350-5300. It is being estimated that India is likely to grow a record 10 million tons of mustard crop in 2020-21 mainly on likelihood of a sharp rise in area. The government has more than enough mustard seed of good quality for the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) Rabi sowing. It has total stock of 26,700 tons certified seeds against requirement of 25,100 tons. Soy oil futures (Nov) is expected to trade on a bullish note and test 940-950, while CPO futures (October) will probably zoom upside towards 795-805 levels respectively. The bullishness prevailing in the international market amid reports of damage to palm oil plantations in Malaysia and soy oil trading on multi-weeks high on CBOT, will continue to lend support to the domestic edible oil prices.


Crude oil prices headed towards $45 on support from output shutdowns ahead of a storm in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the possibility of supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Norway. Markets reacted sharply on a Dow Jones report that Saudi Arabia is considering reversing course over OPEC’s planned production increase early next year. Oil also gained support from the prospect of more production outages in the North Sea because of a workers’ strike. Oil firms and labor officials said they will meet with a state-appointed mediator in an attempt both sides hope will bring an end to a strike that threatens to cut Norway’s oil and gas output by some 25%. The OPEC has been challenged by rising output in Libya, an OPEC member exempted from cutting output, as well as an increase in coronavirus cases in many areas of the world. The market has also drawn support from Hurricane Delta, which is forecast to intensify into a powerful, Category 3 storm in the Gulf Coast. Nearly 1.5 million barrels of daily output was halted. In the Gulf of Mexico, producers have shut 1.69 million barrels per day of oil, or 92% of the region’s offshore oil, and 1.67 billion cubic feet per day, or nearly 62% of its natural gas output, bracing for the impact of Hurricane Delta. This week crude price may witness huge volatility within the range of 2700-3380, where selling pressure can be seen near the resistance. U.S. natural gas production and demand will drop in 2020 from record highs last year as coronavirus lockdowns cut economic activity and energy prices. This week Natural gas may trade in wider range of 175-220 with bullish bias.


Cotton futures (October) is on a bull run and this shall continue till 18700- 19000 taking positive cues from the international market amid crop damage caused by Hurricane Delta and news in the domestic market that with regards to procurement. Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) would procure 125 lakh bales (one bale is 170 kg) of cotton, which is 20 lakh bales more than the 105 lakh bales procured in the previous season. Chana futures is expected to maintain its uptrend, hence buying on dips would be recommended eyeing a target of 5700-5800 for the November contract. On the spot, chana has been witnessing an uptrend in Indore mandis for some time now, on weak availability and strong buying support from the millers ahead of the festival season. Secondly, with the Madhya Pradesh government agreeing to reduce mandi tax from the existing Rs.1.70 to 50 p, trading in all 270 mandis across Madhya Pradesh resumed from last week. Guar seed futures (Nov) is expected to gain further and test 4200-4250, taking support near 4070. While, Guar gum futures (Nov) will probably trade steady with an upside bias in the range of 6200-6400. As the area sown under guar has reduced, it is expected that the production may fall from 9 million bags of 100 kilograms each in the previous year to about 7.5 million bags this year. On the spot, Guar gum and guar seed prices are showing upside momentum in mandis of Rajasthan and Haryana hoping demand from the US. Currently, guar seed arrival has begun in Sriganganagar, Bikaner, Hissar, Adampur and few areas of Gujarat. Jaipur is also waiting for new arrival. Meanwhile, Western Rajasthan is receiving new guar seed.


Base metals may trade with positive bias as Chinese market reopened after week long holiday and renewed hopes for more U.S. stimulus. However concern over the economic impact of rising coronavirus cases and a jump in metal inventories may weigh on prices. U.S. President Donald Trump said that talks with the Congress have restarted over further COVID-19 relief after he ended the talks earlier in the week. However, the prospect of the deal is still unclear. Copper can move 540 by taking support near 515. Prices will get support due to labor strike at a mine in top producer Chile. A union of workers at Lundin Mining’s Candelaria copper mine in Chile walked off the job last week after talks broke down earlier in week. Peruvian copper production volumes fell to 193,852 tonnes of copper in August, a 10% year-on-year decrease from 215,426 tonnes due to lower output from Southern Peru Copper Corp and Antamina. Anglo American wants to explore for base metals in South Africa, but the country needs regulatory changes to make it more competitive with other mining jurisdictions. Zinc may trade in the range of 187-203 while Lead can move in the range of 144-152. Nickel may test 1150 by taking support near 1060. Indonesia’s state miner Mining Industry Indonesia (MIND ID), formerly known as PT Inalum, completed its purchase of a 20% stake in nickel miner PT Vale Indonesia. Aluminum may move towards 152. China’s imports of unwrought aluminium rose again in August, extending a rare inversion of normal trade patterns. Combined imports of primary metal and unwrought alloy totalled 393,000 tonnes, just shy of the previous record of 394,000 tonnes in April 2009.





NICKEL MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 1070.40 on 08th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 1165.30 on 02th Sep’2020 and a low of Rs. 1035.10 on 01st Oct’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1078.56. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.884.

One can buy near Rs. 1085 for a target of Rs. 1150 with the stop loss of Rs. 1052.

NATUARL GAS MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 193.50 on 08th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 221.00 on 07th Sep’2020 and a low of Rs. 179.10 on 01st Oct’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 196.34. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.501.

One can buy near Rs. 192 for a target of Rs. 218 with the stop loss of Rs. 179.

GUARSEED NCDEX (NOV) contract was closed at Rs. 4125.00 on 08th Oct’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 4160.00 on 01st Sep’2020 and a low of Rs. 3871.00 on 07th Sep’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4046.76. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.576.

One can buy near Rs. 4020 for a target of Rs. 4240 with the stop loss of Rs 3910.




  • RBI chief Shaktikanta Das said that the mood of the nation is shifting from despair and fear to hope, adding that GDP growth may turn positive by the fourth quarter. The rural economy looks resilient despite the covid pandemic.
  • The Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 97.9 points last month versus a downwardly revised 95.9 in August.
  • Based on the proposal from the States, approval was accorded by the Centre for procurement of 29.64 LMT of Pulse and Oilseeds for Kharif Marketing Season 2020 for the States of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, Gujarat, Haryana & Uttar Pradesh.
  • President Donald Trump ended talks with Democratic leaders on a new stimulus package, hours after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell”s strongest call yet for greater spending to avoid damaging the economic recovery.
  • India's Gold import in September was around 11 tonnes of gold in September, down from 27 tonnes a year ago. The silver imports in the month plunged 93% from a year ago to 20 tonnes.
  • BSE, executed delivery of Gold mini on 'Options in Goods' framework for fourth consecutive months on September 30, 2020. The exchange also executed the first ever deliveries of Silver'Options inGoods' contracts.
  • Gold-backed ETFs and similar products (gold ETFs) recorded their tenth consecutive month of net inflows during September, matching equivalent stretches in 2008 and 2016.
  • In mustard, crushing demand during the month of September had reduced to 6.5 lakh tons as compared to 8 lakh tons in August.


This week commodities noticed knee jerk reaction mostly on the news that Trump got Covid positive and his recovery amid his statement on stimulus it will come after post-election. Again he started talks on stimulus. This flip flop on fiscal policies kept the entire market jittery. CRB closed little up on improved sentiments. Oil prices rose as oil workers evacuated rigs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Delta, though fuel demand concerns persisted on fading chances for an economic stimulus deal in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer. The Gulf of Mexico produced up to 1.65 million BPD in July, as documented by the U.S. government, accounts around 17% of U.S. crude outputs. EIA data showed that US gasoline stocks fell more than earlier anticipated in the past week to their lowest since last November. Nevertheless crude oil supplies surged by 501,000 barrels supported by an increase in production and imports. Gold prices were down after the Federal Reserve’s strong support for a new Covid-19 stimulus failed to excite haven buyers. Trump dispatched Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to revive talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for a narrower, targeted deal that would help airline workers, among others. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that Congress should pass money for airlines, small businesses, and stimulus checks of $1,200 for individuals, after his halt of the talks between Democrats and Republicans over the latest stimulus measures rattled global markets. Base metals prices flared up on downside in dollar index. Copper prices showed strength on renewed strength on China’s economic rebound and a weaker US dollar as new streams of demand arise for the industrial metal, the latest being for solar panels. The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) announced this week $3m of funding to Australian start-up SunDrive for its rooftop solar panels that use copper instead of silver. Solar power units currently represent 20 per cent of global annual silver consumption’.

The spot prices of turmeric are not improving due to poor upcountry demand and also the quality of the turmeric amid subdued overseas demand. In Unjha, price of exchange-quality jeera quoted at 14,400 rupees per 100 kg. U.S soybean futures soared to multi-year highs as unfavorable weather threatened production in exporting countries. Mustard prices fell as mustard crushing during the month of September has reduced to 6.5 lakh tons as compared to 8 lakh tons in August. A La Nina weather pattern is expected to bring high rainfall in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia in the coming months, potentially disrupting harvesting. ICE cotton futures jumped due to concerns about likely crop damage from Hurricane Delta. Chana futures on the national bourse is making a new 3 year since past many weeks, fuelled by reports of reports of damage to urad and moong crops.







Spot Prices (% Change)



iCOMDEX Base Metal Index…….Another feather in Portfolio

The country's largest commodities exchange multi commodity exchange of India is launching the iCOMDEX base metal Index futures, India's first tradeable base metal futures Index which tracks the real-time performance of futures of Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel and Zinc contracts, on Oct 19, according to exchange. The Securities and Exchange Board of India had granted approval for the bourse to launch trading in base metal indices on June 29, 2020. The base metals index comprises copper, aluminium, lead, nickel and zinc. The base metals future contracts expiring in November and December 2020 and January 2021 will be available for trading from October 19. MCX had already started trading on bullion index, Bulldex, with good volume and making it the country's first such index on underlying bullion futures contracts.

Like MCX iCOMDEX Bullion Index, MCX iCOMDEX Base Metals Index is also one of the sectoral indices in the MCX iCOMDEX family, and the index is based on the liquid Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel and Zinc futures contracts traded on MCX. The Index is an efficient tool for investors looking to manage their investments in base metal and, being an excess returns index, it is ideal for benchmarking and trading.

Eligible index constituents and their 2020 weights

Zinc 33.062913%
Copper 29.807027%
Nickel 14.767405%
Lead 12.881632%
Aluminium 9.481023%

MCX iCOMDEX Base metal futures contract specification

Trading Unit (1 Lot) Rs. 50 * MCX iCOMDEX Base Metal Index
Tick Size 1
Maximum Order Size 80 Lots
Initial Margin Minimum 5 % or based on SPAN whichever is higher
Final Settlement Cash settled
Final Settlement Price The Final Settlement Price will be the underlying Index price arrived at based on Volume Weightage Average Price of the constituents of the underlying Index between 4:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. on the expiry day of the Index futures contract.
Index Governance International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) standards
Maximum Allowable Open Position For individual clients: 1,000 lots or 5% of market wide open position, whichever is higher for all MCX iCOMDEX base metal index futures contracts combined together.
For a member collectively for all clients: 10,000 lots or 15% of market wide open position, whichever is higher for all MCX iCOMDEX Base metal index futures contracts combined together.

Advantage of MCX iCOMDEX Base Metal Index

  • Being a broad based index comprising of important industrial metals, the index also is an indicator of the fundamentals and performance of the industrial sector, particularly the metals-using manufacturing industry.
  • Further, being a diversified index, it would not get largely affected by microeconomic events relevant to one commodity market or sector.
  • Long-term investors can use the MCX iCOMDEX Base Metals Index to gain from exposure to the Base Metals sector as a whole.
  • The Index can be used to make a powerful portfolio diversifier, with sound returns and low volatility over time as well as low correlation with equities and fixed income assets.
  • Further, the diversification potentially reduces volatility in comparison to single commodity exposures.
  • Protection can be established regardless of overall market direction.




Currency Table

Market Stance

Agreen week for rupee after RBI remains supportive in its latest monetary policy. As India still facing covid challenges since economic restrictions begins, RBI Governor has showed that he will do whatever it takes to make things in order. Well the latest RBI policy was not much for rupee centric but certainly boosts Indian bonds after announcing to buy state government bonds for the first time in history. While keeping the policy rate unchanged, RBI still eyeing on inflation figures. We will start the week with September inflation release on Monday which may come nearly 7% that can be the latest risk in rupee. In our previous episodes, we kept mentioning about up move in euro broadly by dollar weakness. On the major side, euro remains supportive after at the sharp rally rise in Chinese yuan from 7.11 to 6.70 against dollar mark gaining over 5.5% and the highest in more than 4 years which kept the momentum on positive side as China being the largest trade partner of European Union. A big week coming up for Pound. So far Brexit talks flipped every time whenever both EU and UK leaders met on discussion table. We are expecting hige jump in Pound's volatility when EU summit starts on the October 15th and can expect wide swings in GBPINR.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (OCT) contract closed at 73.37 on 08-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 73.7675 on 07-Oct-20 and a low of 73.205 on 05-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21- day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 73.75.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 36.26. One can sell at 73.30 for the target of 72.50 with the stop loss of 73.80.

GBP/INR (OCT) contract closed at 94.725 on 08-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 95.695 on 06-Oct-20 and a low of 94.445 on 07-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 95.25.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.40. One can sell at 95.00 for a target of 94.00 with the stop loss of 95.50.

News Flows of last week

05th OCT Euro zone economic recovery floundered in September as services struggled - PMI
06th OCT Indian government names Shashanka Bhide, Ashima Goyal, Jayanth Varma as new MPC members
06th OCT IMF urged infrastructure investment to boost post-COVID growth
06th OCT As U.S. job growth stalls, someworkers facelong-termunemployment
09th OCT China's services sector recovery gathers pace in Sept - Caixin PMI
06th OCT U.S. trade deficit jumps to largest in 14 years in August
07th OCT BOJ's Kuroda calls for more digitalisation, reform in Asia
07th OCT Fed's Mester says ending stimulus talks will mean ‘much slower’ recovery - CNBC
09th OCT RBI holds rates steady, sees economic recovery taking root

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (OCT) contract closed at 86.2725 on 08-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 86.83 on 06-Oct-20 and a low of 85.92 on 05-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21- day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 86.80.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.18. One can buy at 86.20 for a target of 87.20 with the stop loss of 85.70.

JPY/INR (OCT) contract closed at 69.2575 on 08-Oct-20. The contract made its high of 69.80 on 07-Oct-20 and a low of 69.215 on 08-Oct-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 69.83.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34.71. One can sell at 69.25 for a target of 68.25 with the stop loss of 69.75.




Angel Broking lists at 10% discount to issue price

Shares of Angel Broking made a poor stock market debut, as the scrip got listed at Rs 275, a 10.13 per cent discount to its issue price of Rs 306 . The brokerage manages nearly 21.5 lakh operational broking accounts and Rs 13,254 crore in client assets. Angel Broking's brokerage revenues accounted for 69.54 per cent of the total revenues in FY20. Revenue from lending activities, income from depository operations, portfolio management services, income from distribution, and other activities formed 30.46 per cent of the total revenue in FY 2020. At the issue price, Angel Broking commanded a valuation of 26.84 times FY20 earnings.

Delhivery plans an IPO launch over next 12-18 months

SoftBank-backed logistics unicorn Delhivery Pvt. Ltd is planning an initial public offering (IPO) in 12-18 months, joining a list of Indian startups looking to raise money and pave exits for their investors. The Gurugram-based company is waiting for upcoming rules on foreign listing but would prefer to list in India, chief business officer Sandeep Barasia said. Delhivery became a unicorn in 2019 when it raised $413 million in a Series F round led by SoftBank Vision Fund, along with existing investors Carlyle Group and Fosun International. It was then valued at $1.5 billion.

Flipkart may fast-track IPO plan to 2021

Flipkart, India’s most valuable consumer internet startup, may go for a public listing as early as next year, on the back of rapid digital transformation in the country, that has been further accelerated by the covid-19 pandemic. In 2018, Walmart Inc. had acquired a majority stake in Flipkart for $16 billion, valuing Flipkart at $21 billion. Doug McMillion, president and CEO, Walmart had said that it may take Flipkart public in as early as four years after the acquisition was closed.








Mutual fund monthly SIP inflows, AUM fall a tad in September; but SIP folios rise MoM

Monthly contributions via systematic investment plans (SIP) in September has remained more or less stable compared to the last two months. Inflows for the same in September was Rs 7,788 crore, down marginally from Rs 7,792 crore in August and Rs 7,831 crore in July. Assets under management (AUM) of mutual fund companies that have come through the SIP route fell marginally to Rs 3.35 lakh crore in September from Rs 3.36 lakh crore in August. Overall, net AUM of the 42-player mutual fund industry fell to Rs 26.85 lakh crore in September from Rs 27.49 lakh crore a month ago.

Mutual Funds industry assets base rise 12% to Rs 27.6 lakh crore in September quarter

Mutual fund industry's asset base rose by 12 percent to Rs 27.6 lakh crore during the September 2020 quarter, primarily on account of rebound in markets. The average asset under management (AAUM) of the industry, comprising 45 players, was at Rs 24.63 lakh crore in April-June quarter this year, according to data by Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). All top 10 fund houses - SBI MF, HDFC MF, ICICI Prudential MF, Aditya Birla Sunlife MF, Nippon India MF, Kotak MF, Axis MF, UTI MF, IDFC MF and DSP MF - witnessed an increase in their respective average AUMs during the September quarter. Notably, Axis MF, UTI MF, SBI MF and Kotak MF have witnessed an increase in the range of 14-16 percent in their assets base beating the average industry's growth of 12 percent.




Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)





Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 30/09/2020
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 6%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.