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n the week gone by, the global stock markets gained after China resorted to cut the Reserve Ratio requirement for the third time this year and Trump delayed planned tariff hikes on $250 billion Chinese goods. In the European Central Bank, Chief Mario Draghi relaunched Quantitative easing despite the disagreement between the board members. ECB reduced the deposit rate to minus 0.5% from minus 0.4%, and said to buy debt from Nov. 1 at a pace of 20 billion euros ($22 billion) a month for as long as necessary to hit its inflation goal. Japanese economic expansion for the quarter ending June 2019 came at annualized 1.3%, lower than estimates of about 1.8%.
Back at home, domestic market continued to trade on a volatile path tracking domestic and global markets. Meanwhile, Industrial activity in the month of July grew at a pace of 4.3 percent compared to a year before. With visible signs of slowing growth together with retail inflation for the month of August coming at 3.21% i.e. below the central bank’s 4% medium term target, it looks that RBI would resort to a rate cut in the next monetary policy meeting in October. Fitch ratings forecasted India's economic growth at 6.6% during the current year, down from 6.8% in the previous year, and said the government has only limited room to ease fiscal policy because of high debt. As per Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon from 1 June till 11 September was 3% above the Long Period Average (LPA). Going forward, market will take cues from the outlook of Fed meeting which is scheduled next week. Besides other factors such as foreign inflow and outflow, rupee movement, crude oil prices and any announcement from the government to spur the economy, will give direction to the market.
On the commodity market front, CRB gained for continuous third week and hit the high of 185. Fall in dollar index amid some sign of relief in US and China trade war strengthened commodities marginally. This week outcome of fed meeting on 17-18 September will be keenly watched as Federal fund futures imply that traders see a 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Bullion counter may continue to dip further as optimism and hopes of progressing trade talks increased risk appetite. Gold (Oct) can test 37000 in MCX while taking resistance near 38500 while silver (Dec) can test 46000 while taking resistance near 49000. Crude oil prices may trade volatile as Opec commitment to adhere to compliance of production cut and falling stockpiles to support the prices while estimate of decline in demand amid trade tensions to limit the upside. German ZEW Survey Expectations, Euro-Zone ZEW Survey, CPI of UK, Japan and Canada, FOMC Rate Decision, Interest Rate on Excess Reserves¸ Powell Holds Post-FOMC Meeting Press Conference, GDP of New Zealand, BOJ Rate Decision, Unemployment Rate of Australia, Bank of England Bank Rate, etc are few very important triggers for the week.
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• India's Industrial output advanced 4.3 percent on a yearly basis in July, following a 1.17 percent rise a month ago. Output was forecast to grow 2.3 percent.
• India's Consumer prices increased 3.21 percent year-on-year in August following a 3.15 percent rise in July. In the same period last year, inflation was 3.69 percent.
• Dr. Reddy's Laboratories announced the launch of Fosaprepitant for Injection, the therapeutic generic equivalent of EMEND® (fosaprepitant) for injection, approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The EMEND® for Injection brand had an U.S. sales of approximately $279 million MAT for the most recent twelve months ending in July 2019 according to IQVIA Health.
• Unichem Laboratories announced that USFDA conducted inspection at the company's Active Pharmaceuticals Ingredients (APIs) facility at Roha from 09 September 2019 to 12 September 2019. The inspection was a post approval inspection and successfully concluded without any FDA Form 483 issued.
• P I Industries has executed an offer with Isagro S.p.A (a company incorporated in Italy, the promoter and existing shareholder of Isagro Asia) for acquisition of the business of Isagro Asia, who are engaged in Contract Manufacturing, local distribution and exports of agrochemicals through acquisition of 100% shareholding of Isagro Asia. The business will be acquired by PI directly or through its subsidiary.
• BHEL has successfully commissioned the 1320 MW IB Thermal Power Station (2x660MW). Located in Jharsuguda district of Odisha, the project is owned by Odisha Power Generation Corporation Limited (OPGC), a joint venture company of the Government of Odisha and AES, a US-based energy company. Previously, BHEL had set up two units of 210 MW at IB Thermal Power Station which are in operation for more than 20 years.
• Walchandnagar Industries and Indian Space Research Organization's Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) have entered into a contract whereby the company will manufacture and supply “Head, Middle and Nozzle End Segments” (Total 30 nos.) for the GSLV MKIII Launch Vehicle. The contract value is Rs 77.20 crore plus escalation. This happens to be the company's second largest single order received from ISRO.
• New national educational policy hopes to transform Indian education into one of the best in the world, with focus on bringing in foreign students.
• Cyient signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with UK-based defence technology firm, QinetiQ's Target Systems (QTS), to offer avionics products for its unmanned target systems. Cyient will provide advanced manufacturing and electronics engineering solutions for QTS' range of unmanned air, land, and sea target systems from its facilities in India.
• Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has procured 'significant' orders in Maharashtra and Odisha. According to the company's project classification, the total value of the 'significant' contract falls in the range of Rs 1,000 crore-Rs 2,500 crore.
Oil & Gas
• Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) will invest more than Rs 13,000 crore in exploring oil and gas by drilling over 220 wells across Assam in the next five years.
• US initial jobless claims fell to 204,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level of 219,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 215,000 from the 217,000 originally reported for the previous week.
• US wholesale inventories rose by 0.2 percent in July after edging down by a revised 0.1 percent in June. The uptick in inventories matched economist estimates.
• US producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1 percent in August after rising by 0.2 percent in July. Economists had expected prices to come in unchanged.
• US factory orders surged up by 1.4 percent in July after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.5 percent in June. Economists had expected factory orders to jump by 1.0 percent compared to the 0.6 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
• The European Central Bank slashed the deposit rate by 10 basis points to - 0.50 percent, while it left the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate unchanged at 0.00 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively.
|Stocks||*Closing Price||Trend||Date Trend Changed||Rate Trend Changed||SUPPORT||RESISTANCE||Closing S/l|
|S&P BSE SENSEX||37385||UP||08.02.19||36546||36300||35300|
*Bhartiartl has broken the support at 345
**ICICIBANK has breached the resistance of 410
***LT has breached the resistance of 1360
Closing as on 13-09-2019
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
|17-Sep-19||Balmer Lawrie & Company||Bonus/Other business matters|
|17-Sep-19||Advani Hotels & Resorts (India||Dividend|
|18-Sep-19||Indian Bank||Fund Raising/Other business matters|
|27-Sep-19||Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals||Stock Split|
|16-Sep-19||RCF||Dividend - Rs 0.77 Per Share|
|16-Sep-19||Astral Poly Technik||Bonus 1:4|
|17-Sep-19||Ahluwalia Contracts (India)||Dividend - Rs 0.30 Per Share|
|17-Sep-19||GATI||Dividend - Rs 0.80 Per Share|
|17-Sep-19||Himadri Speciality Chemical||Dividend - Rs 0.15 Per Share|
|17-Sep-19||Mishra Dhatu Nigam||Dividend - Rs 0.51 Per Share|
|18-Sep-19||Engineers India||Dividend - Rs 0.75 Per Share|
|18-Sep-19||HPL Electric & Power||Dividend - Rs 0.2 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||HDFC Bank||FV Split - From Rs 2 To Rs 1 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||Omaxe||Dividend - Rs 0.70 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||MMTC||Dividend - Rs 0.30 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||Jagran Prakashan||Dividend - Rs 3.5 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||Nectar Lifesciences||Dividend - Rs 0.05 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||Glenmark Pharmaceuticals||Dividend - Rs 2 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||SJVN||Dividend - Rs 0.65 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||BEML||Dividend - Rs 2.50 Per Share|
|19-Sep-19||Bharat Dynamics||Dividend - Rs 1.67|
|20-Sep-19||Atul Auto||Dividend - Rs 1.25 Per Share|
|20-Sep-19||PNC Infratech||Dividend - Rs 0.50 Per Share|
|20-Sep-19||PTC India||Dividend - Rs 4 Per Share|
|20-Sep-19||LT Foods||Dividend - Rs 0.15 Per Share|
|20-Sep-19||PTC India Financial Services||Dividend - Rs 0.8 Per Share|
|20-Sep-19||GMDC||Dividend - Rs 2 Per Share|
AJANTA PHARMA LIMITED
Target Price: 1181
|Face Value (Rs.)||2.00|
|52 Week High/Low||1235.55/840.00|
|M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.)||9120.30|
|P/E Ratio (times)||23.04|
|P/B Ratio (times)||4.06|
|Dividend Yield (%)||0.87|
• Ajanta Pharma is a speciality pharma formulation company having branded generic business in India and emerging markets, generic business in US and institution business in Africa. Many of company's products are first to market and are leading in their sub therapeutic segments- ophthalmology, dermatology and cardiology.
• In US during Q1 FY 20, the company received 3 ANDA final approval and filed 3 ANDA with USFDA. Out of 30 final approvals, the company has commercialized 28 products. 25 ANDAs are awaiting USFDA approval. Company plans to file 10 lo 12 ANDAS during this financial year.
• As per IMS MAT June 2019, the company has posted healthy growth of 18% in Cardiology (segment growth of 12%), 16% in Ophthalmology (segment growth of 10%), 13% in Dermatology (segment growth of 11%) and 18% in Pain Management (segment growth of 10%).
• Guidance for FY20- Branded Pharmaceuticals (India, Asia, Africa which together account for ~70% of the sales)- 10-11%, US- ~30% and Africa tenders- degrowth of 10-15%. India growth of 9% is expected to be driven by 65-70% volume growth and remaining 30-35% price hikes and new launches.
• Current Dahej plant capacity utilization stands at 30% and Guwahati Phase I (oral solids) stands at 65- 70%. Furthermore, the company has given a capex guidance Rs. 350 crore for FY20. Pithampur plant, which has been earmarked for Emerging markets to begin commercialization from Q4FY20.
• In Q1 FY20, revenues grew 19.8% YoY to Rs. 611.9
crore mainly due to 67.2% YoY growth in the US to Rs. 102 crore and 50% YoY growth in African tender business to Rs. 81 crore. Domestic formulations grew 9% YoY to Rs. 194 crore. EBITDA margins declined 330 bps YoY to 27.5% due to lower gross margins. EBITDA grew 6.9% YoY to Rs. 168.4 crore, while Net profit grew 8.4% YoY to Rs. 114.6 crore.
• USFDA Inspections
• Pending ANDA Approvals
The competitive edge Ajanta Pharma has built over the years, in terms of customized products for every market where it operates, continues to provide it the impetus for growth. The Company continues to strengthen product portfolio through new launches, many of them being first-to-market products, offering significant patient benefits. Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 1181 in 8-10 months time frame on the PEx of 25.06 times and FY20E EPS of 47.11.
CAN FIN HOMES LIMITED
Target Price: 476
|Face Value (Rs.)||2.00|
|52 Week High/Low||420.00/217.00|
|M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.)||5224.97|
|P/E Ratio (times)||17.43|
|P/B Ratio (times)||2.93||Stock Exchange||BSE|
• Can Fin Homes Ltd. is a housing finance company and offers housing loan to individuals; housing loan to builders/developers, and loan against property.
• The management of the company expects to raise loan book to Rs 23000 crore by end March 2020 from Rs 19003 crore end June 2019.
• Asset quality of the company is maintained with Gross NPA ratio at 0.62% and Net NPA at 0.43% end June 2019. With the enhanced efforts on recoveries, the company expects to improve asset quality going forward. In most of NPA cases, the company has already started action under SARFAESI. Thus, the company expects to reduce GNPA to March 2019 level by end September 2019 (Q2FY2020).
• The company has recorded healthy performance in the quarter ended June 2019 with 17% growth in loan book to Rs 19003 crore end June 2019 over June 2018. The disbursements of the company have increased 10% to Rs 1276 crore in Q1FY2020.
• The company has recorded loan growth of 22% from non –Karnataka region, while Karnataka loan growth was lower at 7% end June 2019. Loan growth for south region stood at 15% and non-south at 20%.
• The company has comfortable liquidity positions with sufficient unavailed credit lines of Rs 2000 crore along with additional credit limit sanctions of Rs 2300 crore, which would take care of its funds requirement for next two quarters.
• It has reported a jump of 11% in the April-June quarter's FY20 net profit at Rs 80.98 crore against net profit of Rs 73.22 crore in the first quarter of
the previous fiscal 2018-19. Total income during the June quarter rose to Rs 484.01 crore, from Rs 402.64 crore in the same period.
• Regulatory Risk
• Competition Risk
In terms of rate of interest, the company has well positioned between other housing finance companies (HFCs) and the bank. According to the management of the company, to gain more strength towards the market share, the company is more focusing on the affordable home loan segment. Moreover, it has a track record of delivering robust financial performance. Going forward the company is likely to maintain the same on the back of healthy loan growth expectation and expansion in NIM. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.476 in 8 to 10 months time frame on an expected P/Bv of 2.93x and FY20 BVPS of Rs.162.51.
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
The stock closed at Rs 452.20 on 13th September, 2019. It made a 52-week low of Rs 357.55 on 16th May 2019 and a 52-week high of Rs. 415.15 on 18th September 2018. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 414
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, it is forming an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts which is also considered to be bullish. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 445-448 levels for the upside target of 480-490 levels with SL below 419.
The stock closed at Rs 295.50 on 13th September, 2019. It made a 52-week low at Rs 187.90 on 09th October 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 383.40 on 31st May 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 290.29
As we can see on charts that stock corrected sharply from yearly high of 383 levels and tested 250 in single downswing and has started moving higher. Moreover, it has formed an “Ascending Triangle” pattern on daily charts and also has given the breakout of same in last week, also managed to close above the same. So, follow up buying may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 291-292 levels for the upside target of 320-325 levels with SL below 275.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
The market undertone remain bullish for the Indian markets in the week gone by, as Nifty once again reclaim 11050 levels in Friday’s session on the back of sharp surge in Oil & Gas, Auto, Banking , FMCG and Reality counter. The sentiments in the domestic markets got a major boost as signs of progress in US China trade talks helped to calm fears of a global slowdown. From derivative front, put writers were seen active in 10900 & 11000 strikes while marginal addition of open interest was seen in 11100 strike. From the technical front, Nifty is gradually building up a base at 10900 levels and continuously adding up the gains in a rising channel with formation of higher high and higher bottom. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was up and closed at 14.17% while that for put options closed at 15.32%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 14.90% and is expected to remain volatile. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.18, which indicates OTM put writing. For coming week, traders should use any dip as an opportunity to create long positions as far Nifty is trading above 10900 levels. From technical front we expect that recovery in the Nifty will likely to continue towards 11150-11200 (SPOT) levels as the secondary oscillators are also showing positive divergence at lower levels which should limit the sharp downside in prices on short term basis.
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Oct) is expected to fall further below its one month low of 6480 to test 6400-6300 levels. The expectations of better crop in the current season due to good sowing progress are weighing on prices on the domestic bourse. As per the latest statistics, the total area sown under turmeric in Telangana was at 48,315 hectare as on September 9 in the current 2019-20 season, slightly up from 47,790 hectare over the year-ago period, as per the latest sowing data released by the state agriculture department. On the demand side, there are negative cues from the spot market, owing to sluggish demand from the stockiest. Jeera futures (Oct) is likely to break the major support near 16500, persisting since past four weeks & plunge towards 16200 levels. The sentiments are pessimistic due to anticipation of a rise in arrivals in coming weeks before the start of new season in October. While major buyers are remaining absent from the market due to rain. The spot prices at Unjha are quoting lower on quality concerns as moisture content in the spice has increased due to the continuous rains and overcast conditions in the last few weeks. Gujarat has so far received total rainfall of 926.59 mm, which is 13.5 per cent more than its Long-Period Average (LPA) of 816 mm. Dhaniya futures (Oct) would probably consolidate in the range of 6020-6320 levels. The upside is being capped by reports of rise in imports from Russia and Ukraine and expectations of likely rise in sowing in the upcoming Rabi season due to good progress of rains in Rajasthan.
Bullion counter may continue to dip further as optimism and hopes of progressing trade talks increased risk appetite, after U.S. President Donald Trump preferred a comprehensive trade deal with China but did not rule out the possibility of an interim pact, even as “easy” agreement would not be possible. This week outcome of Fed meeting on 17-18 September will be keenly watched as Federal fund futures imply that traders see a 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Gold (Oct) can test 37000 in MCX while taking resistance near 38500 while silver (Dec) can test 46000 while taking resistance near 49000. Gold silver ratio again widened from 80 to 84 recently as silver fell at faster pace than gold. Meanwhile, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi pledged indefinite stimulus last week to revive an ailing euro zone economy. ECB delivered a 10 basis point cut to the deposit rate that banks pay to park excess reserves with it last week. The bigger-than-expected stimulus will increase pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan to ease policy this week to support a world economy increasingly characterized by low growth and protectionist threats to free trade. Most investors think that the Fed will cut rates, but it remains to be seen by how much. Trump has stated that the US should have zero or negative interest rates, following in the footsteps of countries in Europe and Japan that have had very low and even negative rates for years.
Soybean futures (Oct) is looking bullish to test 3785-3820 levels, riding high on the back of anticipation of the standing crop due to heavy rains. The standing soybean crop in Madhya Pradesh is facing threat due to heavy rains in most of August and September. Heavy rains mostly in western parts of Madhya Pradesh are taking a toll on the standing soybean crop. Water logging in some fields is decaying the roots. Farmers in the state have sown over 80% early sown soybean varieties, which have attained the seed filling stage and now require dry weather conditions to get ready for harvest. As rains are largely incessant and no respite is seen in near future, chances are higher that seeds inside the pods may germinate and this would eventually hit the yield. On the CBOT, U.S soybean futures (Nov) is expected to trade with an upside bias & hold above the support near $ 8.5 a bushel. Hopes for renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products could provide support to the market ahead of high-level trade talks next month between the two countries. Soy oil futures (Oct) may consolidate in the range of 749-762 levels. A stronger rupee against dollar is likely to cap the gains, however on the contrary the upside momentum persisting in CBOT soy oil futures may limit the downside. CPO futures (Sept) is likely to trade sideways to down in the range of 548-561 levels. The reports of that India agreeing to cut import duty on Indonesian palm oil by 5% in lieu of access to Indian sugar in that country has left the market participants to stay at bay due to lack of clarity.
Crude oil prices may trade on a volatile path as Opec commitment to adhere to compliance of production cut and falling stockpiles to support the prices while estimate of decline in demand amid trade tensions to limit the upside. A market-monitoring committee formed by OPEC and allied producers, a grouping known as OPEC+, met last week in Abu Dhabi ahead of policy discussions set for Vienna in December. OPEC+ has over-complied on average with its agreed cut of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) as Iranian and Venezuelan exports collapsed due to sanctions. Crude oil may take support near 3850 while taking resistance near 4200 levels. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell in penultimate week to the lowest in nearly a year, as refineries raised output and imports fell. At 416.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories were at their lowest since October 2018, and about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. EIA has cut its 2019 global oil demand growth outlook for seven months in a row, after starting the year at 1.5 million b/d. Natural gas may witness further recovery as it can test 190 while taking support near 175. Natural gas prices will be buoyed by a tropical disturbance that is circling near the Bahamas and has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal for the next 2- weeks according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. US natural gas production continued to increase in August, setting a new daily production record of 92.8 billion cubic feet per day.
Cotton futures (Oct) may give a strong upside momentum towards 20000- 20200 levels. In a latest estimate, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has cited the small crop size and very tight cotton balance sheet for the smaller closing stock. The closing stock of cotton at the end of the 2018-19 season on September 30 will be the lowest in at least five years, at 15 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). The total supply by the end of the season in September 2019 will be about 374 lakh bales. In the international market, U.S Cotton is likely to gains to test 61.50 taking support near 58 cents per pound. The overall condition of the U.S. cotton crop continues its weekly shifts in ratings towards declining, which may support prices. Chana futures (Oct) may take an attempt to trade higher above the resistance near 4090 & test 4150-4180 levels. Overall, the pulses are quoting higher on the spot markets amid intermittent rains in Madhya Pradesh and decline in selling pressure by the NAFED. In news, Moong crop in Madhya Pradesh is facing threat as most of the crop is of early sown which is ready for harvest and rains at this time is hitting the legume. Castor seed futures (Oct) may witness a steep fall towards 5600, if breaks the major support near 5780. The rise in acreage year in year due to favourable weather in key growing areas may take a toll over the counter. In Gujarat, the largest producer, acreage has surged 35.4% on year to 577,745 ha..
Base metal counter may witness some recovery at lower levels on signs of progress in U.S.-China trade conflict. China renewed purchases of U.S. farm goods, and U.S. President Donald Trump delayed a tariff increase on certain Chinese goods by two weeks, as the two sides made conciliatory gestures ahead of planned talks later in September and October. Copper may trade sideways to upside bias as it can test 460 levels while taking support near 442 levels. Refined copper cathode production by major Chinese smelters fell by 0.5% in August from a month earlier. Meanwhile, Lead may also remain sideways as it can move range of 151-158 levels. Zinc may witness recovery towards as it can test 192 levels while taking support near 180 levels. Nickel prices can move with upside bias as it can test 1300 while taking support near 1210. The premium of LME nickel cash to the three-month contract jumped to $163 a tonne from $102 a tonne in the previous session, signalling tight nearby supplies. On-warrant nickel stocks in LME-approved warehouses or those available for delivery, tumbled to their lowest level in a decade at 77,628 tonnes, latest data showed. Aluminium can trade with sideways to weak bias as it can take support near 136 while facing resistance near 143 levels. Norsk Hydro, one of the world's largest aluminium producers, stated that it would close some production in Germany and could lay off more than 700 workers in a bid to increase profitability at its rolled products business.
NATURALGAS MCX (SEP) contract closed at Rs. 183.00 on 12th Sep’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 191.00 on 10th Sep’19 and a low of Rs. 146.70 on 05th Aug’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 165.50. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 71.38.
One can buy between Rs. 177-180 for a target of Rs. 200 with the stop loss of Rs. 170.
GOLD MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 37750.00 on 12th Sep’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 39885.00 on 4th Sep’19 and a low of Rs. 31520.00 on 23rd May’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 37190. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.62.
One can sell only below Rs. 37605 for a target of Rs. 36800 with the stop loss of Rs. 38000.
REF. SOYOIL NCDEX (OCT) contract was closed at Rs. 756.15 on 12th Sep’19. The contract made its high of Rs. 764.25 on 26th Aug’19 and a low of Rs. 706.00 on 13th Jun’19. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 743.87. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.99.
One can sell below Rs. 753 for a target of Rs. 730 with the stop loss of Rs 764.
• World Gold Council (WGC) published a set of guidelines for gold miners designed to encourage high environmental and ethical standards.
• SEBI has granted a three-year extension to National Commodity Clearing Ltd, the wholly-owned subsidiary of NCDEX for clearing operations.
• The closing stock of cotton at the end of the 2018-19 season on September 30 will be the lowest in at least five years, at 15 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). - Cotton Association of India
• The Government rejects millers request to extend date for pulses import beyond Oct 31.
• India has received 3% more rain than average since the start of the monsoon season on June 1.
• Large mining companies welcomed a recent decision by the Indonesian government to move forward a ban on exporting nickel ore, as the firms aim to increase smelting output.
• UAE's Minister of Energy and Industry Suhail al-Mazrouei stated that members of OPEC and non-OPEC producers are "committed" to achieving oil market balance.
• EIA trimmed its outlook for US oil production 30,000 b/d to 12.24 million b/d for 2019 and 13.23 million b/d for 2020.
CRB gained for continuous third week and hit the high of 185. Fall in dollar index amid some sign of relief in US and China trade war strengthened commodities marginally. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated on Thursday that he preferred a comprehensive trade deal with China but did not rule out the possibility of an interim pact, even as he said an "easy" agreement would not be possible. In another development, ECB chief, Mario Draghi, pledged indefinite stimulus on Thursday to revive an ailing euro-zone economy. Agri commodities saw significant rebound from the lows. Bullion counter traded weak on good recovery in equity market amid some rebound in US 10 years treasury. In energy counter, crude saw massive decline whereas natural gas prices saw little upside on lower than expected build up in inventories. Oil markets fell as an OPEC agreement to cut oil output and positive Sino-U.S. trade development failed to lift prices. It made a low of 3827 last week. OPEC agreed in a meeting on Thursday to cut its oil output and ask Iraq and Nigeria to bring production down in an attempt to prevent a glut as U.S. production soars. Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, pledged to reduce output by 175,000 barrels per day (bpd) by October, while Nigeria agreed to cut 57,000 bpd. After a very bullish oil inventory number, the market is now adjusting to the potential return of Iran to the global oil market. Base metals counter traded on mix note. Copper was sideways, lead, nickel and aluminum turned weak whereas zinc saw some rebound from the lower levels. The premium of LME nickel cash to the three-month contract jumped to $163 a tonne, signaling tight nearby supplies.
In agri commodities, cotton was the cynosure among all with its solid bounce back from the multi week lows. International market was firm and low inventory news stimulated upside. The closing stock of cotton at the end of the 2018-19 season on September 30 will be the lowest in at least five years, at 15 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has cited the small crop size and very tight cotton balance sheet for the smaller closing stock. Ratio between guarseed and guargum decreased as guarseed outperformed guargum. Spread between cotton oil seed cake September contract and December contract increased as far month contract is trading in backwardation on expectation on improved supply due to fresh arrival in coming months. Spices were mostly weak except cardamom futures, which saw some fresh buying from multi week low.
MCX COMDEX is a significant barometer for the performance of commodity market and would be an ideal investment tool in commodity market over a period of time. This is the maiden flagship real-time Composite Commodity Index in India based on commodity futures prices of an exchange launched in June 2005.
MCX is India's leading commodity derivatives exchange with a market share of 91.3% per cent in terms of the value of commodity futures contracts traded in Q1 FY 2020.
MCX COMDEX is designed & developed by the Research & Planning Department of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) in association with the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata. Also Group Indices for MCX AGRI, MCX METAL & MCX ENERGY on commodity futures prices have been developed to represent different commodity segments as traded on the exchange.
Advantage of MCX COMDEX/p>
• The COMDEX give users the ability to efficiently hedge commodity and inflation exposure and lay off residual risk.
• Protection can be established regardless of overall market direction.
Liquidity is most essential eligibility criteria for commodities to be included in the index. It means number of contracts traded on MCX of individual commodities (including all varieties) in a specified period is taken as eligibility criteria. The constituents of the Index are liquid commodities traded on the Exchange.
MCX COMDEX weighting approach is equally relying on factors that are endogenous to the futures market (liquidity on the exchange) and exogenous to the futures market (physical market size). The rebalancing is done annually or as and when deemed necessary by the Index management team on price-percentage basis. The last weightage has been rebalanced on June 13, 2019.
Weightage of commodities in MCX COMDEX
|11th SEP||Trump delays US tariff on Chinese goods after Xi Jinping grants trade concession.|
|11th SEP||UK government publishes worst-case scenario for no-deal.|
|12th SEP||ECB cuts deposit facility rate, restarts bond buying.|
|12th SEP||India’s Industrial Production rebounds to 4.3%, retail inflation inches up to 3.21%.|
Indian rupee gained more than a percent this week amid ease in global markets sentiment after August turmoil. Domestic unit's move is largely driven by Chinese renminbi - sharply recovered from its recent lows after Policy makers cut the RRR to boost aggregate domestic demand. Meanwhile Trump delays to levy higher tariff of USD 250 bn worth of Chinese imports as a gesture of goodwill and further looking for an interim deal before October meet. Domestic headline inflation printed 3.2% in the month of August, driven by rise in food inflation to 2.99% compared to 2.36% in July. This is the 13th consecutive months when CPI came below RBI's upper bound target of 4% which leads to rate cuts from RBI in October. Admittedly RBI already trimmed 110 bps since February this year, further accommodation will help rupee to rise further. Globally, The European Central Bank has announced its biggest package of rate cuts and economic stimulus in three years as President Mario Draghi warned governments that they needed to act quickly to revive flagging euro zone growth. The ECB cut interest rates further into negative territory and revived its contentious €2.6tn program of buying bonds for an unlimited period, in the latest sign of concern over the health of the global economy. US core consumer inflation advanced to its highest level in more than a year while the headline consumer price index rose 0.1 per cent in August from the previous month. Such uptick in economic data will bring uncertainty for FOMC policy makers to trim-down fed fund rate next week.
USDINR is likely to face resistance near 71.50 and head back lower towards 70.75 in the next week.
USD/INR (SEP) contract closed at 71.2825 on 12th Sep’19. The contract made its high of 72.0425 on 11th Sep’19 and a low of 71.2150 on 12th Sep’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 71.77
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.27. One can sell at 71.45 for the target of 70.85 with the stop loss of 71.75 .
EUR/INR (SEP) contract closed at 78.6825 on 12th Sep’19. The contract made its high of 79.6975 on 11th Sep’19 and a low of 78.6175 on 12th Sep’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 79.43
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.15. One can sell at 79.20 for a target of 78.60 with the stop loss of 79.50.
GBP/INR (SEP) contract closed at 87.8850 on 12th Sep’19. The contract made its high of 89.0975 on 11th Sep’19 and a low of 87.6775 on 9th Sep’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 88.02
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.98. One can buy above 88.20 for a target of 88.80 with the stop loss of 87.90.
JPY/INR (SEP) contract closed at 66.14 on 12th Sep’19. The contract made its high of 67.37 on 9th Sep’19 and a low of 66.0925 on 12th Sep’19 (Weekly Basis). The 14- day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 67.28
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.45. One can sell at 66.35 for a target of 65.75 with the stop loss of 66.65.
IRCTC files draft red herring prospectus for IPO with SEBI
The Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) filed the draft red herring prospectus for its proposed IPO with SEBI. This is the only entity authorised by Indian Railways to provide catering services to railways, online railway tickets and packaged drinking water at railway stations and trains in India. While the document does not mention offer size, speculation is rife that it will be in the Rs 500-600 crore range.The issue comprises 2 crore equity shares of face value of Rs 10 each, of which up to 50 per cent will be available for allocation to qualified institutional buyers (QIBs), including 2 lakh equity shares for the mutual fund portion on a proportionate basis. In addition, not less than 30 lakh equity shares, or 15 per cent of the total offer, will be available to non-institutional bidders and at least 35 per cent to retail individual bidders."The Employee Reservation Portion [which depends on government approvals] shall not exceed 5 per cent of the post-offer share capital of our Company or increase the size of this Offer by more than 50 per cent," the draft prospectus stated. Eligible employees bidding in this category can bid up to Rs 5 lakh net of employee discount. "However, a Bid by an Eligible Employee in the Employee Reservation Portion will be considered for allocation, in the first instance, for a Bid Amount of up to Rs 200,000 (net of Employee Discount)," it said, adding that any unsubscribed portion will be available for allocation proportionately to all eligible employees who have bid in excess of this threshold. If it is still undersubscribed, the remaining portion "shall be added to the net offer".
* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.
* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.
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Mutual funds add around 5 lakh folios in August, total tally reaches to 8.53cr
According to data from Association of Mutual Funds in India, the number of folios with 44 fund houses rose to 8,52,81,222 at the end of August, from 8,48,00,409 in the end of July, registering a gain of 4.81 lakh folios. The total folio count stood at 8.38 lakh in June, 8.32 lakh in May and 8.27 lakh in April. Number of folios under the equity and equity-linked saving schemes rose by 4.11 lakh to 6.16 crore in August-end as compared to 6.12 crore at the end of preceding month. The debt oriented schemes folios count went up by 1.15 lakh to 66.75 lakh. Within the debt category, liquid funds continued to top the chart in terms of number of folios at 16.42 lakh, followed by low duration fund at 9.15 lakh. The mutual fund industry's asset base rose to Rs 25.47 lakh crore in August-end from Rs 24.53 lakh crore in July-end.
Sundaram Mutual Fund garners Rs 358 crore via equity fund NFO
Sundaram Mutual Fund has collected Rs 358 crore from 30,932 investors through the launch of Sundaram Equity Fund. Subscription to the open-ended equity scheme was open from August 16-30. The scheme will deploy at least 65 percent of its assets in equity and equity-related instruments across market capitalisation, while up to 35 percent will be deployed in fixed income and money market instruments. The new scheme will invest in a portfolio of 45-50 stocks of companies, using a blend of top-down and bottom-up approaches. Currently, Sundaram Mutual Fund has a bouquet of 14 equity and 11 fixed-income funds. As on August 31, 2019, the fund house’s assets under management stood at Rs 34,357 crore. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against S&P BSE 500 TRI Index.
Fund Manager change in Tata Gilt Securities Fund
Tata Mutual Fund has decided to change the fund manager of Tata Gilt Securities Fund from Naresh Kumar to Murthy Nagarajan with effect from September 14, 2019.
Minimum Application Amount change in IDFC Nifty Fund
IDFC Mutual Fund has proposed to change the minimum application amount from Rs 100 to Rs 5000 of IDFC Nifty Fund with effect from September 11, 2019.
Minimum Application Amount change in Kotak Liquid Fund
Kotak Mutual Fund has proposed to change the minimum application amount from Rs 5000 to Rs 500 of Kotak Liquid Fund with effect from September 09, 2019.
Fund Manager change in Motilal Oswal Long Term Equity Fund
Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund has decided to change the fund manager of Motilal Oswal Long Term Equity Fund from Akash Singhania to Aditya Khemani with effect from September 6, 2019.
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/08/2019 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully
Mr. D K Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Investments and Senior VP, PHDCCI) with Shri G. Kishan Reddy (Minister of State for Home Affairs, Government of India) and Shri Amitabh Kant (CEO, Niti Aayog) during States’ Policy Conclave 2019 held on Saturday, 7th September, 2019 at Hotel Taj Mahal, Mansingh Road, New Delhi.
On the occasion of Teacher’s Day Ms. Akanksha Gupta (Whole- Time Director, SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd.) along with team organized a noble drive of distributing bags and goodies to underprivileged kids on Friday, 6th September, 2019 in Umeed NGO at Timarpur Teacher’s Colony, Delhi.
Mrs. Reema Garg (Director & CHRO, SMC Group) during Ganesh Chaturthi celeberation on Thursday, 12th September, 2019 (left side) and during Associate Training on Saturday, 7th September, 2019 (right side) at SMC Head Office, New Delhi.
SMC Global Securities Ltd., CIN : L74899DL1994PLC063609 | SMC Comtrade Ltd., CIN No. U67120DL1997PLC188881
Registered Address: 11/6-B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, Delhi-110005, Tel +91-11-30111000 | website: www.smctradeonline.com
SEBI Reg. No. INZ000199438, Member: BSE (470), NSE (07714) & MSEI (1002), DP SEBI Regn. No. CDSL/NSDL-IN-DP-130-2015, Mutual Funds Distributor ARN No. 29345. SMC Comtrade Ltd. SEBI Regn. No. INZ000035839, Member: NCDEX (00021), MCX (8200) & ICEX (1010). SMC Investments and Advisors Limited, SEBI PMS Regn. No. INP000003435. SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd. IRDAI Regn. No: DB 272/04 License No. 289 Valid upto 27/01/2020. Comtrade Ltd. • Real Estate Advisory services are offered through SMC Real Estate Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Disclaimer: Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing • PMS is not offered in commodity derivative segment • Insurance is the subject matter of solicitation • All insurance products sold through SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd. • Investment Banking Services provided by SMC Capitals Ltd. • Equity PMS and Wealth management services provided by SMC Investments & Advisors Ltd. • IPOs and Mutual Funds distribution services are provided by SMC Global Securities Ltd. • Financing Services provided by Moneywise Financial Services Pvt Ltd. • Commodity broking services provid
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