In the week gone by, global market looked cautious after Standard & Poor’s 500 I index pulled back from the cusp of record highs as investors mulled the stalemate in stimulus negotiations and signs of an economic recovery. Earlier mood of the investors were upbeat as there was a sign of slowing corona virus infections and better-than-expected unemployment data. Meanwhile, some economists have predicted that US GDP could rebound strongly in the first quarter next year. Admittedly, faltering hopes for a compromise between Republicans and Democrats over additional stimulus for the U.S. economy dragged the dollar index down. Oil prices moved higher and were heading for the second week of gains amid growing confidence that demand for fuel is starting to pick up despite the coronavirus pandemic that has slammed economies worldwide.
Back at home, Indian stock market moved higher as hopes of more stimulus to shore up an economy reeling from the fallout of the covid-19 pandemic. On the data front, July Consumer price inflation stood at 6.93% and remains at an upper end of MPCs tolerance band. Food prices which contribute more than 50% of the CPI basket have remained elevated in the month of July due to extended local lockdown. The index of industrial production (IIP) contracted by 16.6 per cent in June compared to 33.8 per cent in May and a record 57.6 per cent slide in April, signaling gradual process of normalization of manufacturing activity, even though localised lockdowns following rapidly spreading pandemic could hamper the economic recovery process. In another development, the Supreme Court on August 13 permitted the registration of the BS-IV compliant vehicles sold before the March lockdown. Going forward, April-June 2020 quarterly earnings, progress of monsoon, global cues, movement of rupee against the dollar, Brent crude oil price movement and investments by FPI and DII will be watched.
On the commodity market front, in the week gone by, again bullion caught the attention of the entire world, but with its sharp downside. Both gold and silver saw a good fall though it was deeper in silver. Vaccine announcement by Russia shed the previous gains. This week gold and silver may trade in a range of 50000-55000 and 65000-75000 respectively. Crude is gaining ground gradually on decline in inventory, rig count amid improvement in demand. It should trade in a band of -2800-3300. If Republican and Democrats come on consensus for stimulus then it may fuel more buying in industrial and energy counter. Launch of iCOMDEX Bullion index by MCX may give more trading opportunity to the commodity participants in India. GDP of Japan, Core Inflation Rate of UK, Canada and Euro Area, FOMC Minutes and Markit Manufacturing PMI of US and many more economic data and events scheduled this week, may give significant impact on commodities prices.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
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DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company has positioned itself for strategic diversification and has witnessed continued profitable growth. The company is diversifying into steel making and has undertaken several capital intensive projects to modernize and increase capacities to retain its domestic leadership and has also forayed overseas successfully. Government of India has charted a road map to augment India's Steel production capacity to 300 Mtpa by 2030-31. To fulfill this vision, NMDC proposes to act as a facilitator and developer of green field steel plants by creating Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) in the mineral rich states of Jharkhand and Karnataka. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.108 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/BVx of 1.18x and FY21 BVPS of Rs.91.15.
The company has a main strategy to exit the T&D developmental asset portfolio and other non-core businesses. The focus has shifted on growing EPC businesses with an aim to be amongst the top players in the global EPC market. The company is targeting becoming debt free in FY21, mainly from proceeds from selling transmission assets. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.282 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/BVx of 1.12x and FY21 BVPS of Rs.251.47.
The stock closed at Rs 348.10 on 14th August 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 203 on 23rd March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 428.85 on 22nd October, 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 335.37
As we can see on charts that stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, it has formed a “Rounding Bottom” on daily charts, bullish pattern and has started moving higher during last week, so buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 342-346 levels for the upside target of 380-390 levels with SL of 330.
The stock closed at Rs 113.15 on 14th August 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 56 on 24th March, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 122.10 on 04th November, 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 88.55
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in rising channel on weekly charts. Apart from this, it has formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on charts, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, stock has given the breakout of same along with high volumes so more upside is expected from current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 110-111 levels for the upside target of 125-128 levels with SL below 104.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Indian markets remained subdued last week as nifty hovers in the range of 11110 to 11400 levels with some stock specific action. However, in later part of the week bears took the charge as markets got dragged sharply lower as banking, auto and telecom stocks remained under pressure. From derivative front, both call & put writers remained active during the week. However after a long time call writers were seen creating hefty open interest at 11300, 11400 & 11500 strikes while put writers seen shifting to lower bands which suggest a sign of caution for upcoming sessions. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 17.46% while for put options closed at 19.41. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 20.57% and is expected to remain sideways. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.47 slightly down from the previous week which indicates call writing in out of the money strike. For coming week 11000 to 11300 range for nifty would remain crucial as slide below 11000 levels would trigger long unwinding which could take markets even lower.
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Sept) is likely to witness a correction towards 5600-5500, facing resistance near 5900 levels. The arrivals in the spot are registering a decline at the markets in Erode and the demand is also lesser by 60 per cent. The traders are procuring for their local demand, but at a decreased price for both varieties of based on the quality. At present, the turmeric markets are not functioning at Sangli, Nizamabad and other places, so the buyers have purchased only for their demand and not showing interest in stocking the same. Also, the export demand for the spice is weak as the orders from Bangladesh have slowed down. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger turmeric was sold at Rs.5,399 to Rs.6,389 a quintal, root variety was sold at Rs.4,799 to Rs.5,606 a quintal. At the Erode Cooperative Marketing Society, finger turmeric was sold at Rs.5,239 to Rs.6,253 a quintal; root variety was sold at Rs.5,099 to Rs.5,689/quintal. Jeera futures (Sept) will possibly continue to hold on the support near 13975, while the upside may get extended towards 14500-14600. The demand from local stockiest and masala manufactures has gained momentum. Also, there has been regular demand from Bangladesh. On the spot, Unjhamandi is witnessing arrivals of nearly 15,000 bags. The rough jeera is being quoted at Rs 1970-2245 and NCDEX variety was priced at Rs 2355-2540 per 20 kgs. Dhaniya futures (Sept)is expected to take support in the range of 6300-6400, while the upside may remain capped near 6775. At present, the arrivals are hovering on the lower side on the mandies, while most of the buyers are looking to purchase best quality supplies.
Bullion counter has muted the rally and set for the first weekly decline after 3 weeks. Gold recovered after dipping below the key $1,900 level and registering its worst fall in seven years as bleak economic data underscored concerns over a pandemic-led slowdown. On Tuesday, gold crashed as much as 6.2% in its worst one-day fall since April 2013, while silver slumped 15%, its biggest decline since October 2008. The decline was a healthy correction, it allows more people to get in, and so prices will rally again. We have all the same fundamental factors that support gold; the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to remain dovish for an extended period of time, they have already said that they will allow inflation to rise above their targets. Large stimulus measures tend to support gold, which is often considered a hedge against inflation. Concerns over the economic damage caused by the pandemic as Britain’s economy shrank by a record 20.4% in the second quarter buoyed gold’s appeal along with a weaker dollar. The longer-term uptrend is intact; Price dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities as the macro backdrop remains favorable for gold. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.1% to 1,252.09 tonnes. Investors are still awaiting a breakthrough on another US stimulus package and keeping a watch on US-China ties ahead of trade talks on August 15. This week, gold may trade in the range of 49300-56700 and Silver may trade in the range of 59200-76300. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1890-$2000 and Silver may trade in the range of $22.20-$27.40.
Soybean futures (Sept) is expected to hold on the support near 3600, its 200 days moving average level. The downside may remain capped as the soybean producing regions are undergoing a period of scanty rains in the last 45 days. Lack of sufficient rains has led to attack by whitefly along with fungus due to which flowers are withering away.Mustard futures (Sept) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 4900-5250. The declining arrivals and increased demand in mustard oil from pickle manufacturers may keep the counter steady in days to come. Soy oil (Sept) may witness correction towards 860- 840, facing resistance near 880, while CPO(Aug) may get stuck in the range of 720-750. Weak physical demand despite the ongoing festive season and ample availability of cheap imported oil has arrested uptrend in soy and other oils in Indore mandis. According to the market participants the sales of the edible oils that had witnessed a hit due to the outbreak of the pandemic is reviving, but not at the pace expected and it will take another four to six months for it to reach pre-Covid levels. The supply side is also heavier and the recent statistics show that import of edible oils for July 2020reported at 1,517,350 tons compared to 1,347,882 tons in July 2019 up by 13%, on YoY basis. This is the highest import in last eleven month of oil year 2019-20. Going ahead, the market participants would be cautious & focusing on the U.S. soybean crushings that likely rose to a four-month high in July, according to Reuters poll ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday at 1600 GMT.
Oil prices continued to trade in a wide range of 2780-3200 where selling has been seen from higher levels, because of doubts about demand recovery due to the coronavirus pandemic and rising supply. The IEA, lowered its 2020 oil demand forecast following unprecedented travel restrictions also reduced air travel because the Covid-19 pandemic would lower global oil consumption this year by 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd). The OPEC also said that world oil demand will fall by 9.06 million bpd this year, more than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he did not expect any hasty decisions on output cuts when a monitoring committee of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, meets next week as the oil market has been stable. Last month OPEC+ eased the cuts to around to 7.7 million bpd until December from a previous reduction of 9.7 million bpd, reflecting a gradual improvement in global oil demand. Markets are still awaiting a breakthrough on a U.S. stimulus package and keeping watch on frayed U.S.-China ties ahead of trade talks on Aug. 15. This week we may witness correction in crude oil where it may take support near 2720 and face resistance near 3380. U.S. natural gas edged higher on forecasts for the weather to remain hot and air conditioning demand high over the next two weeks, a slowdown in output and an increase in liquefied natural gas exports. That price increase came despite a report showing an expected, bigger-thanusual storage build last week when the weather was milder than now. This week Natural gas may trade within wider range of 145-176.
Cotton futures (Aug) is expected to witness consolidation in the range of 16000-16600. The factor limiting upside is that most of the mills are making purchases from CCI. This has weakened demand for mandi cotton. However, as the cotton is riding on an optimistic note in the international market, the downside may remain capped. U.S. data showed good quantities of cotton have been exported to China. Traders are now looking towards the impending conference between the U.S. and China on the phase-one trade deal. The official wording was that the two sides want “to review” the deal. Also back at home, currently, cotton is in the vegetative stage going into flowering in central India. Although the 2020 southwest monsoon arrived on time, it is showing some signs of weakening in late July and early August.Chana futures (Sept) is likely to take support near 4220, while the upside of 4350-4400 levels can be seen.The overall demand in spot markets is firm and is expected to increase in coming weeks as the economy is unlocking phase-wise. Also, seasonally around this time of the year the overall demand normally sees a spurt as festive season approaches. Guar seed & guar gum futures (Sept) would probably witness a steep correction towards 3500 & 5700 respectively. Guar prices on the spot have started to cool down after many areas of Rajasthan received very good rains which increased the prospects of higher acreage. However, the final sowing traders estimate may come within one week which is much awaited for the market. Secondly, demand for guar gum has weakened due to recent price gains and crude oil prices been stuck under $50 due to pandemic-hit demand.
Base metal may trade in range with bullish bias due to weaker greenback, declining stocks in LME, and expectation of recovery in demand in China after better July industrial data. However, easing supply disruption, rising U.S.- China tensions and lack of progress in coronavirus relief bill may weigh on prices lower. China’s July industrial output rose 4.8% from a year earlier but growth was less than expected as the economy gradually recovers from coronavirus-related lockdowns. Chile’s state-run miner Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, expects quick progress in ramping up processing capacity at its Chuquicamata underground project while neighbouring Peru was also restarting production after lockdowns. The U.S. Republican White House and congressional Democrats have been in a deadlock for days trying to come up with a U.S. coronavirus bill. Copper can move towards 520 by taking support near 495. Zinc may move towards 197 and taking support near 182 while Lead can move towards 162 while taking support near 150. It estimated refined zinc output will rise by around 0.5% in 2020, even as mine supply declines by about 1.5%. Nickel may test to 1130 by taking support near 1050. Rapidly rising stainless steel production in top consumer China has helped to preserve demand and prices of key ingredient nickel. While stainless steel accounts for about 70% of nickel demand, its growing use in electric vehicles is expected to be the main driver of consumption in the longer term. Aluminum may trade in the range of 140-150 with firm bias. Canada has announced a C$3.6bn ($2.7bn) tariff on US aluminium products a day after US President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on some Canadian aluminium products.
ZINC MCX (AUG) contract closed at Rs. 187.35 on 13th Aug’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 192.20 on 06th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 161.80 on 25th Jun’2020. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 184.377. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 64.374.
One can buy near Rs. 184 for a target of Rs. 192 with the stop loss of Rs. 180.
NICKEL MCX (AUG) contract closed at Rs. 1063.60 on 13th Aug’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 1117 on 06th Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 963.60 on 26th Jun’2020. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1062.13. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.972.
One can buy near Rs. 1065 for a target of Rs. 1120 with the stop loss of Rs. 1035.
DHANIYA NCDEX (SEP) contract was closed at Rs. 6504.00 on 13th Aug’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 6690.00 on 23rd Aug’2020 and a low of Rs. 5450.00 on 03rd Jun’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6473.32. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.700.
One can sell below Rs. 6470 for a target of Rs. 6000 with the stop loss of Rs 6705.
Again it was a week in which bullion caught the attention of the entire world, but with its sharp downside this time. It was expected as the rally became scary and Vaccine launch by Russia worked as major trigger. Both gold and silver saw a good fall though it was deeper in silver. Tuesday saw “silver plunging as much as 13.8% – its biggest daily decline since October 2008. It was down 13.4 % to $25.24 per ounce. Gold lost some ground after Russia announced the world’s first Covid vaccine and profit-booking was seen at higher levels. A recovering U.S dollar and gains in equities too pressured the safe haven asset. A jump in U.S. Treasury yields helped the dollar extend its winning streak, making gold more expensive for those holding other currencies. Gold broke $1900 in COMEX and MCX gold also touch the low of 49995. In India, gold prices have collapsed nearly ₹5,000 per 10 gram over two days while silver has plummeted ₹14,000 per kg. However silver recovered on Thursday sharply. Upside in dollar index was limited amid fading hopes for a compromise between Republicans and Democrats over additional economic stimulus. In energy counter, crude managed to close higher whereas natural gas prices saw downside from higher levels. EIA said that while U.S. fuel demand rose to 19.37 million barrels per day (bpd) during the previous week, the highest since March, crude output fell from 11 to 10.7 million bpd, with some investors now starting to fear a shortage.Natural gas prices have rallied strongly over the past few weeks in the midst of a major change in gas fundamentals. Milder weather news injected selling pressure in the prices and it closed in negative last week. Base metals managed to remain on higher side because of vaccine optimism. US core PPI rose more than expected. Risk assets have rallied.
NCDEX Guargum futures fell sharply as traders eyed the improving rainfall scenario is leading producing state of Rajasthan. The fourth spell of southwest monsoon started this week has seen the rainfall increase in many districts which were facing deficit rainfall. However it is not making much impact on sowing as it is almost done. Jeera saw good rise. In days to come, the market participants are expecting demand to rise after mid-August. The arrivals are also on a lower side due to incessant rainfall in the major producing regions. Coriander too traded high. The major factor that is lending support to the counter is the increase in demand against decline in arrivals the peak season has come to an end.
After receiving approval from Securities and Exchange Board of India, NCDEX, India’s leading agri commodity exchange, is going to launch Future contracts in Natural Whitish Sesame Seeds (Symbol: SESAMESEED) expiring in the months of October 2020, November 2020 and December 2020 would be available for trading w.e.f. August 26, 2020.
Sesame seed is one of the oldest oilseed crops known. Sesame has one of the highest oil contents of any seed. India ranks second in the production of sesame seeds in the world after China. The country produces black and white sesame seeds and is also involved in the export of Spice. In India, it is kharif crop and majorly grown in the eastern and western part of India. Gujarat is the leading sesame producing state contributing 22.3% of total production. The other major sesame seeds producing Indian states are Maharashtra, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana. There are nine hybrid varieties of sesame seeds produced in India. Sesame seed area across India is covered around 11.67 lakh hectare as on 6th August 2020(MY 2020-21). This is up around 6.68% compared to the acreage during the last year same period.
|Unit of trading||5 MT|
|Delivery unit||5 MT|
|Maximum Order Size||250 MT|
|Tick size||Rs. 5|
|Quantity variation||+/- 2%|
|Delivery center||Unjha (Within 50 km radius from municipal limits)|
|AdditionalDeliverycenters||Rajkot (Within 50 km radius from municipal limits)|
|Daily Price limit (DPL)||Daily price limit is (+/-) 3%. Once the 3% limit is reached, then after a period of 15 minutes the limit shall be increased further by 1%. The trading shall be permitted during the 15 minutes period within the 3% limit. After the DPL is enhanced, trades shall be permitted throughout the day within the enhanced total DPL of 4%.|
|Position limits||Member-wise: 30,000 MT or 15% of the market wide open interest in the commodity, whichever is higher.
Client-wise: 3,000 MT
For near month contracts: Member-wise: 7,500 MT or onefourth of the member’s overall position limit in that commodity, whichever is higher.
Client-wise: 750 MT
Indian rupee remains subdued in this week ended Thursday. Concerns over large fiscal deficit by March 2021 is still pushing rupee to head lower. For the time being, various dollar inflows due to fund rising by Indian Corporate is keeping rupee in order to fall in a limited range. However latest jump in headline inflation in July to 6.93% backed by higher food inflation will create downward pressure in rupee in coming days. The food basket rises to 9.62% in last month and on top of it, June CPI was revised higher to 6.23% from 6.03%. Additionally the core inflation remains elevated. Inevitably the surge in inflation leads to low prospect of rate cut in October which is apparently negative for rupee and bonds as well. From the majors, bullish sentiment in euro is still active in the markets. Notably Euro July economic data especially double digit increase in manufacturing supported our bullish outlook in euro. On the other side sterling remains in narrow range after record plunge in GDP in quarter ended in June. However the 8.7% MoM rise in GDP in June was quicker than the 2.4% MoM gain in May and shows that the economy has started to recover from the Covid recession at a faster pace which may support pound in coming days.
USD/INR (AUG) contract closed at 74.9200 on 13-Aug-2020. The contract made its high of 75.2025 on 10-Aug-2020 and a low of 74.7075 on 11-Aug-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheUSD/INR is currently at 75.13.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.92. One can buy at 74.90 for the target of 75.50 with the stop loss of 74.40.
GBP/INR (AUG) contract closed at 98.1675 on 13-Aug-2020. The contract made its high of 98.2300 on 10-Aug-2020 and a low of 97.3000 on 12-Aug-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheGBP/INR is currently at 97.14.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.90. One can buy at 98.00 for a target of 99.00 with the stop loss of 97.40.
|11th AUG||UK job losses hit decade-high, worse seen ahead|
|11th AUG||Japan's current account surplus shrank to 5-year low as exports plunge|
|12th AUG||U.S.-China trade deal in 'fine' shape, White House's Kudlow says|
|13th AUG||French unemployment rate hits 37-yearlow as lockdown skews data|
|13th AUG||U.S. weekly jobless claims fell below 1 million; labour market pain far from over|
|13th AUG||India's July retail inflation dims chances of rate cut|
|13th AUG||U.S. hits fiscal cliff with jobs, economic recovery in the balance|
|13th AUG||Euro zone trade surplus surged as imports drop, GDP and employment in record fall|
EUR/INR (AUG) contract closed at 88.7500 on 13-Aug-2020. The contract made its high of 88.7950 on 13-Aug-2020 and a low of 87.6825 on 12-Aug-2020 (Weekly Basis).The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe EUR/INR is currently at 87.77.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.46. One can buy at 88.50 for a target of 89.40 with the stop loss of 87.90.
JPY/INR (AUG) contract closed at 70.0925 on 13-Aug-2020. The contract made its high of 71.0700 on 10-Aug-2020 and a low of 70.0000 on 13-Aug-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe JPY/INR is currently at 70.70
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.94. One can sell at 70.40 for a target of 69.80 with the stop loss of 70.90.
The mutual fund industry has added 18 lakh investor accounts in three months ended June 30, taking the total tally to 9.15 crore, amid volatile market conditions. According to data from Association of Mutual Funds in India, the number of folios rose by 17.96 lakh to 9,15,42,092 at the end of June quarter from 8,97,46,051 at the end of March quarter. In comparison, the 45-player industry had added 26 lakh folios in March quarter. Of the total folios, the number of investor accounts under the equity and equity-linked saving schemes rose by more than 10 lakh to 6.37 crore at June-end as compared to 6.27 crore at the end of March quarter. The debt oriented schemes folio count went up by 3.24 lakh to 61.35 lakh in June quarter. Within the debt category, liquid funds continued to top the chart in terms of number of folios at 19.74 lakh, followed by low duration fund at 9.52 lakh. Overall, investors pumped in Rs 1.24 lakh crore into various mutual fund schemes in three months ended June 2020, with liquid and arbitrage segments contributing the most to the inflow. This follows an outflow of over Rs 94,200 crore in the preceding quarter.
Equity mutual funds witnessed an outflow of Rs 2,480 crore in July, making it the first withdrawal in more than four years, primarily on profit-booking by investors. Overall, the mutual fund industry witnessed a net inflow of 89,813 crore across all segments last month, much higher than Rs 7,265 crore seen in June, data by Association of Mutual Funds in India showed. As per the data, outflow from equity and equity-linked open ended schemes was at Rs 2,480.35 crore in July as compare to an inflow of Rs 240.55 crore in June. Such schemes had attracted Rs 5,256 crore in May, Rs 6,213 crore in April, Rs 11,723 crore in March, Rs 10,796 crore in February and Rs 7,877 crore in January. July 2020 saw the first outflow since March 2016, when equity schemes witnessed a pull out of Rs 1,370 crore. In July this year, except for equity linked saving schemes (ELSS) and focused fund categories, all the other equity categories witnessed net outflow.
Mutual funds focussed on fixed-income securities witnessed a multi-fold surge in investment to Rs 91,392 crore in July, with short duration funds contributing a major chunk of the infusion. Barring credit risk funds, all the individual categories that invest in fixed-income securities or debt funds saw inflows, data with the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Given the current interest rate scenario, investors are largely focusing on fixed income categories having a relatively shorter duration profile. In addition to that, funds with pristine credit quality, especially from categories such as money market, short duration, corporate bond and banking and PSU, continue to gain traction, highlighting investors' preference for safety in this segment. According to the data, mutual funds (MFs) that invest in fixed-income securities saw an inflow of 91,392 crore in July, as compared to Rs 2,862 crore inflow in June. The inflow stood at Rs 63,665 crore in May and Rs 43,431 crore in April.
Mahindra Manulife Mutual Fund has launched -Mahindra Manulife Arbitrage Yojana, an open ended scheme for investment in arbitrage opportunities available in equity, derivatives and debt markets. According to a press release shared by the fund house, the scheme is suitable for investors who are looking for short term investment options with relatively low risk, tax efficient returns, and looking to park money in a scheme relatively less impacted by market volatility. The new fund offer opens for subscription on August 12 and closes on August 19. The scheme will reopen for continuous sale and repurchase from August 25. Mahindra Manulife Arbitrage Yojana would invest minimum 65-100% in equity and equity related instruments including equity derivatives, upto 35% in debt and money market securities including tri-party repo, reverse repo. And, under defensive circumstances the scheme would invest 0 - 65% in equity and equity related instruments including equity derivatives, upto 35 - 100% in debt and money market securities including tri-party repo, reverse repo, and upto 10% in units issued by REITs & InvITs.